[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021

[Saint-loup]

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

Candy ! Btw, this strategy, as making song that will make laugh or want to watch/listen to it once might work. What worries me - this is just a clip. How to perform all the on stage?

P.S. Try to recognize music clips parodied there.

Damn, girl, what's in those pills? 

I have to admit, I kind of enjoyed this. I think she's so good that people will vote for her, not the song. Much like Israeli singer Netta won the competition with her song "Toy".
As for the live performance, I don't think there will be any problems. She won the 2015 Junior Eurovision Song Contest, the Maltese version of The X Factor, and also, she participated in the eleventh series of Britain's Got Talent and finished in 6th place.^source

Bookies seem to agree with you because she's now the winner for almost all bookmakers https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision
I hope her live performance will be as funny as her music video because there will be competition, Flo Rida is announced to be on stage with Senhit for San Marino. https://escxtra.com/2021/03/21/flo-rida-eurovision-stage-2021/

[StartupAnalyst]

I think that soon they will disqualify the participant from Georgia. He recently wrote this post

It's sad that there is such a reality, when we have to use this shit show Eurovision to promote a song," the musician wrote. - I'll leave it here and your right to watch the music video or not, but if anyone says something negative about the performance - I'll fuck (rape) your mother. Thanks to everyone who is on my side."

Source: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/03/21/uchastnik-evrovideniya-ot-gruzii-ugrozhaet-heyteram-iznasilovaniem

[Saint-loup]

I think that soon they will disqualify the participant from Georgia. He recently wrote this post

It's sad that there is such a reality, when we have to use this shit show Eurovision to promote a song," the musician wrote. - I'll leave it here and your right to watch the music video or not, but if anyone says something negative about the performance - I'll fuck (rape) your mother. Thanks to everyone who is on my side."

Source: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/03/21/uchastnik-evrovideniya-ot-gruzii-ugrozhaet-heyteram-iznasilovaniem

Thank you for this news, it seems no western media has published this information yet. It's sad to hear that and if georgian people think he is disgracing them as it's stated in your (russian) article, I agree with them, it's better to disqualify or replace him if it's still possible in my opinion.  

[LTU_btc]

I think that soon they will disqualify the participant from Georgia. He recently wrote this post

It's sad that there is such a reality, when we have to use this shit show Eurovision to promote a song," the musician wrote. - I'll leave it here and your right to watch the music video or not, but if anyone says something negative about the performance - I'll fuck (rape) your mother. Thanks to everyone who is on my side."

Source: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/03/21/uchastnik-evrovideniya-ot-gruzii-ugrozhaet-heyteram-iznasilovaniem

Damn, serious stuff... Maybe he was drunk when he posted it? Wouldn't be surprised because original post is already deleted.
It's only a bit strange that no English speaking media haven't anything about it. If they will publish, no doubt that Georgia will have to find new participant for contest.

[FatFork]

Damn, serious stuff... Maybe he was drunk when he posted it? Wouldn't be surprised because original post is already deleted.
It's only a bit strange that no English speaking media haven't anything about it. If they will publish, no doubt that Georgia will have to find new participant for contest.

Yeah, there's too much crazy shit around that dude. It's strange that no mainstream media outlet has covered this yet.

[tyKiwanuka]

Belarus will not participate in ESC this year. They submitted a new song, but it wasn't accepted from EBU and they then failed to meet the deadline to re-submit again. So SF1 will now have 16 countries and SF2 17. See here.

I checked the YouTube numbers - more for curiosity than anything else, but it's still interesting. Bigger countries of course get more views generally, but when a tiny country like Malta is closing in on 2mln views, then this says something outside from the betting markets (I doubt the casual ESC fan also does some betting on this )



So Serbia has the most views, which is a bit odd considering they look to have no chance at all to even reach the final. Russia always has a lot of views because of huge population, but they still have way more views than other big countries, if we take the population into account. The songs in SF1 have ~7mln more views than the songs from SF2. Bulgaria - being among the favourites to win the ESC - has the second lowest views from all songs.

And the latest odds:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports

Three songs with a french title at the top, never seen this before I still like Finlands odds.....

[tyKiwanuka]

Pretty dusty in here, where are all of you ?

Checked some YouTube numbers again after some weeks and here are the Top10 gainers since March 28th when I last checked:



Malta really gets a lot of interest and they have cemented their position as the top favourite in the betting markets as well. France is now second favourite with odds around 6, despite them having really few views on YT and only +24% change. I could imagine that lots of (betting) people fancy them to get heaps of points from jury votes; in televotes I don't see France being super strong, but not sure.

Placed my first two bets:

Finland to win @40 (more for trading than actually thinking they can win it in the end)
Cyprus to finish Top10 @2.8 (really think this song will work very well in ESC)

[Stalker22]

The rehearsal schedule for the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 has been released.

Rehearsals with this year's artist will begin on May 8 at the Ahoy in Rotterdam and will continue until the live shows in May. Lithuania is first to rehearse on Saturday 8th May at 10am (CET). All rehearsals will be streamable in the Online Press Centre and journalists onsite in Rotterdam will be able to view artists' first rehearsals on screens in the Press Centre. Second rehearsals will be accessible in a designated part of the arena itself.
Stand-in rehearsals will begin on April 29th.

The full rehearsal schedule can be found here:
https://eurovoix.com/2021/04/24/%f0%9f%87%b3%f0%9f%87%b1-eurovision-2021-rehearsal-schedule-released/

[Cling18]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

I will just hope that the seeded to win will still get a good odds so we can try our luck by staking our bet to those five participants if it is possible to bet to
more than 1 participant to win the contest.

I didn't know that they offer this kind of game. It's a breath of fresh air and it will be fun especially for music-inclined gamblers. I find it exciting since it's new and I guess it would be easy to bet for the ones who perform the best. I'm looking forward to more events and games like this.

[bbc.reporter]

Pretty dusty in here, where are all of you ?

Checked some YouTube numbers again after some weeks and here are the Top10 gainers since March 28th when I last checked:



Malta really gets a lot of interest and they have cemented their position as the top favourite in the betting markets as well. France is now second favourite with odds around 6, despite them having really few views on YT and only +24% change. I could imagine that lots of (betting) people fancy them to get heaps of points from jury votes; in televotes I don't see France being super strong, but not sure.

Placed my first two bets:

Finland to win @40 (more for trading than actually thinking they can win it in the end)
Cyprus to finish Top10 @2.8 (really think this song will work very well in ESC)

Where did you find 40 odds for Finland? I saw sportsbet.io and cloudbet.com only had 30. I reckon all others also have similar odds.

Also, how is Eurovision winner voted? Are there some media storylines outside the contest like politics or important world events that can influence the results?

[tyKiwanuka]

Where did you find 40 odds for Finland?

At Betfair, it's still 40 there, hasn't moved. But as said, I don't see them winning, just performing better than the odds suggest. So, if you are not looking to trade, I wouldn't recommend to bet on them.

Also, how is Eurovision winner voted? Are there some media storylines outside the contest like politics or important world events that can influence the results?

It's 50% televotes and 50% jury votes from each participating country, while they can't vote for themselves of course See here: Voting

The result is influenced by a lot of things (politics, diaspora, friendly countries, (music) culture), but you won't win this thing with a poor song and performance. What a good song is, is of course very subjective, but the betting markets are generally pretty good in predicting the winner/the countries that will do good. I can't recall a HUGE outsider winning the ESC since I bet on this, and with huge I mean odds of 100+

I would probably concentrate more on some side markets, like H2H, Top3/5/10 etc.

[Goodluckmate.com]

Oh, I love this thread.

I listened to all the songs but right now I can remember only the Russian and the Finnish one. So, I guess those would be my favorites. I loved that the Russian singer was singing in Russian, I always love it when countries sing in their national language. The Serbian song wasn't bad but I don't think it's a winner. North Macedonia was like a Disney song and Cyprus was like a bad copy from Eleni Foureira which ended up second when Israel won. I remember liking another song but can't remember which one was it. So, I'll leave it at that.

Also, if you're a fan of Eurovision stuff and videos, you may like this lady - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPH-qBMrkosTN-84c8YP_1A - she's like reviewing the songs and reacting when hearing them for the first time. And she's hilarious at times. I found her randomly and then spent like hours watching her videos for this year's ESC. 

[bbc.reporter]

@tyKiwanuka. Is there a female candidate who is of color or who is Chinese, part Chinese? I speculate that the people around Europe have developed stronger convictions against racism after black lives matter. Singers of African, Asian descent or of the minority might get the sympathy votes especially if the song is about a hymn against racism.

[tyKiwanuka]

@tyKiwanuka. Is there a female candidate who is of color or who is Chinese, part Chinese? I speculate that the people around Europe have developed stronger convictions against racism after black lives matter. Singers of African, Asian descent or of the minority might get the sympathy votes especially if the song is about a hymn against racism.

I think Sweden is what you are looking for, but just go through all songs and see for yourself. There is an overview with links to all songs in first post of this thread.

Cyprus to finish Top10 @2.8 (really think this song will work very well in ESC)

This is below 2 now, very nice. Already thought of hedging, but I believe in this song, lol.


The latest winning odds from Orbit/Betfair:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports

Italy/Malta doing very good since I last posted, Bulgaria/Sweden went up quite a bit.

Although I don't like the italian entry, I think it will do VERY good, might even win this.

[bbc.reporter]

@tyKiwanuka. Sweden is the perfect candidate for this politically correct, liberal society hehehe. She is black and appears to be a lesbian. Another candidate who might reach the top 10 is Azerbaijan. Greece is also beautiful. What is the ratio of male voters to female voters?

[Saint-loup]

@tyKiwanuka. Is there a female candidate who is of color or who is Chinese, part Chinese? I speculate that the people around Europe have developed stronger convictions against racism after black lives matter. Singers of African, Asian descent or of the minority might get the sympathy votes especially if the song is about a hymn against racism.

AFAIK Vincent Bueno(Austria) is from Filipino origin(it should please Gambling section users ) and one of the backing vocalist of Manizha looks to be of Asian descent(chinese or kazak or something like that) but I don't remember any other contestant looking asian. I don't know if she's lesbian but the current favorite of the contest, Destiny, is already black. So Tusse is not likely to beat her upon this criteria IMO.

[tyKiwanuka]

What is the ratio of male voters to female voters?

Hmm, I don't know, 50/50 maybe ? What I can tell you is, that the ESC community is more younger people, but not the very young ones, maybe people aged 30-50. And ESC has a big LGBT community 

-

Betfair has added some more markets, but not a lot of liquidity until now:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934

Once there is some more liquidity, I will lay France to win the televote. As said, I think they will get the majority of their points form the juries.

These side markets are really way more interesting than the winner market. Good value to be found there Just needs lots of time to analyze all this

[Saint-loup]

What is the ratio of male voters to female voters?

Hmm, I don't know, 50/50 maybe ? What I can tell you is, that the ESC community is more younger people, but not the very young ones, maybe people aged 30-50. And ESC has a big LGBT community  

-

Betfair has added some more markets, but not a lot of liquidity until now:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934

Once there is some more liquidity, I will lay France to win the televote. As said, I think they will get the majority of their points form the juries.

These side markets are really way more interesting than the winner market. Good value to be found there Just needs lots of time to analyze all this

Few big (fiat) sportsbooks are also offering this kind of bets : Bwin, Unibet, Betway, Betsson ... And there seems to be very interesting opportunities there. It's sad that crypto sportsbooks are still not offering those markets, betting on the winner while the contest occurs only one time per year is not very interesting.

[Saint-loup]

Rehearsals have started at Rotterdam since Saturday and small footages of few dozens of seconds of each rehearsal are available on the youtube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/c/EurovisionSongContest/videos

Well I didn't watch all of them yet but I'm still impressed by Manizha performance, the paintings and orthodox icons displayed on the giant screen behind her are just wonderful, I really like the Efendi, Hooverphonic and Rafal performance too.

Today we will see the first rehearsals of the big 5 and host countries.

[Goodluckmate.com]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.