[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021

[tyKiwanuka]

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Eurovision_Song_Contest_2021.svg

You can never be too early when it comes to the Eurovision Song Contest and Albania was the first country to announce/publish their entry some days ago, so time for a 2021 thread. There can be found great value in the early stages, but you can also be dead wrong. The 2020 edition was cancelled for known reasons, it looks like the 2021 edition will take place no matter what, since all artists will (have to) video tape their performance and if they are not able to travel to Rotterdam, this video will be shown. There are some other special rules for this one, but shouldn't matter for the outcome. It is allowed to have the same artist as planned for 2020, but not the same song. 22 countries chose to do so, which is about 50%.

This years Eurovision Song Contest will be held from 18th to 22nd May in the Ahoy-Arena in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

The Dates

18th May 2021: Semifinal 1
20th May 2021: Semifinal 2
22nd May 2021: The Final

A total of 41 countries will participate this year. Bulgaria and Ukraine will come back for this years edition, while Montenegro and Hungary won't participate this year.

Semifinal 1

Country	Artist	Song	Youtube
________________________	________________________	________________________	________________________
Australia	Montaigne	Technicolour	Click me
Belarus	DSQ	DSQ
Ireland	Lesley Roy	Maps	Click me
Lithuania	The Roop	Discoteque	Click me
North Macedonia	Vasil	Here I stand	Click me
Russia	Manizha	Russian Woman	Click me
Slovenia	Ana Soklič	Amen	Click me
Sweden	Tusse	Voices	Click me
Azerbaijan	Samira Efendi	Mata Hari	Click me
Belgium	Hooverphonic	The Wrong Place	Click me
Croatia	Albina	Tick-Tock	Click me
Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou	El diablo	Click me
Israel	Eden Alene	Set me Free	Click me
Malta	Destiny Chukunyere	Je Me Casse	Click me
Norway	TIX	Fallen Angel	Click me
Romania	Roxen	Amnesia	Click me
Ukraine	Go_A	Shum	Click me

Semifinal 2

Country	Artist	Song	Youtube
________________________	________________________	________________________	________________________
Austria	Vincent Bueno	Amen	Click me
Czech Republic	Benny Cristo	Omaga	Click me
Estonia	Uku Suviste	The Lucky One	Click me
Greece	Stefania	Last Dance	Click me
Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið	10 Years	Click me
Moldova	Natalia Gordienko	Sugar	Click me
Poland	RAFAŁ	The Ride	Click me
San Marino	Senhit	Adrenalina	Click me
Serbia	Hurricane	Loco Loco	Click me
Albania	Anxhela Peristeri	Karma	Click me
Armenia	Will not participate	Will not participate
Bulgaria	Victoria	Growing Up is Getting Old	Click me
Denmark	Fyr & Flamme	Øve os på hinanden	Click me
Finland	Blind Channel	Dark Side	Click me
Georgia	Tornike Kipiani	You	Click me
Latvia	Samanta Tina	The Moon is Rising	Click me
Portugal	The Black Mamba	Love Is on My Side	Click me
Switzerland	Gjon's Tears	Tout l’Univers	Click me

The Final

France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK are seeded for the final as the Big Five, Netherlands as hosts.

Country	Artist	Song	Youtube
________________________	________________________	________________________	________________________
France	Barbara Pravi	Voilà	Click me
Germany	Jendrik	I Don't Feel Hate	Click me
Italy	Måneskin	Zitti e buoni	Click me
Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy	Birth Of A New Age	Click me
Spain	Blas Canto	Voy a quedarme	Click me
United Kingdom	James Newman	Embers	Click me

Betting Odds

Will add a screenshot later, for now there is just a tiny market at Betfair.


Last years thread was very nice with lots of good discussions and posts. Hope to see some familiar faces in this thread, but fresh faces are welcome as well of course. Happy discussing and good luck with your bets

I made this thread self-moderated. I don't plan to delete a lot of posts, but rather let a fruitful discussion unfold. If it gets too spammy, I will delete posts though. So just stay on topic, share your thoughts, discuss the entries and don't spam useless stuff.

[1715174016]

1715174016

[1715174016]

1715174016

[swogerino]

I happen to live in Albania for work from sometime now and let me tell you that the winner of the National Song Festival here won the title in an unorthodox way(I cannot say more but all the capital talks of her having an affair with some high profile member organizer of the event) and based on this let me say she is not going to win anything in Eurovision and she will be eliminated in the first night.I agree with what people are talking here as all are sharing the same idea.

[LTU_btc]

So, almost half countries will send same people as they had in 2020. I don't like Lithuania decision not to send The Roop to Eurovision 2021. Though, I perfectly understand reasons why. They want to have big TV ratings on national selection and get some money from votes. But probably this year they won't be able to held national selection final in sold out arena with 15k people. Well, at least The Roop agreed to participate in national selection.
I'm a bit surprised that Russia won't send Little Big, considering that they were contenders to win. Almost every their new song and clip become viral on Youtube, so I think they would be serious contenders again.
And it's not fully correct to say that Ukraine returns, because they already had to participate in 2020 with this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNetXPSld50&list=RDzNetXPSld50, though they didn't participate in 2019.

[tyKiwanuka]

And it's not fully correct to say that Ukraine returns, because they already had to participate in 2020 with this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNetXPSld50&list=RDzNetXPSld50, though they didn't participate in 2019.

Yes, this is still the information from the 2020 thread and I left it there, since technically it's correct imo. Officially there was no contest in 2020, so they give their comeback after having missed one edition (the 2019 one). But this is splitting hairs and probably not that important in the end Just a side note^^

Good to see you around in this thread @LTU_btc. Pretty bad luck for The Roop. It's not easy to produce a winning song for the ESC, especially not for a small country like Lithuania with few diaspora. Keeping my fingers crossed for them to be kissed by the muse this year as well

[alegotardo]

It's good to know that this forum isn't all about sports, a little culture is good for everyone... this is the first time that I have come across a topic about Eurovision.

I wish that here in Latin America we had a festival like Eurovision. Thankfully, we have Portugal in the same language as Brazil to follow and cheer.

As for the 2021 event, unfortunately, a recording will never have the same "quality" as a live performance, but the organization is right in that decision as it's better for the event to take place than to be postponed or canceled again. I hope everyone can participate live.

In Portugal the representatives still have to be chosen, I'm sure that good songs worthy of winning another title will be chosen as in 2017.

[LTU_btc]

Good to see you around in this thread @LTU_btc. Pretty bad luck for The Roop. It's not easy to produce a winning song for the ESC, especially not for a small country like Lithuania with few diaspora. Keeping my fingers crossed for them to be kissed by the muse this year as well

Yeah, it will be difficult to make another good song. Though, in recent years I noticed that quality of music increase in my country, there is enough groups or singers who easy get millions of views on Youtube, but most of them aren't interested to participate in ESC. Also, not everything fits to Eurovision.
When I will have time, I want to compare list of already confirmed participants and odds for last year Eurovision. I wouldn't be surprised if some countries which weren't ranked well by bookmakers decided not to send same participants in 2021 .

As for the 2021 event, unfortunately, a recording will never have the same "quality" as a live performance, but the organization is right in that decision as it's better for the event to take place than to be postponed or canceled again. I hope everyone can participate live.

Well, if event will be held without spectators, I don't think there will be big difference between live performance and pre-recorded song. After all, it won't be shown through Zoom or similar platform - pre-recorded songs will be filmed on TV studio of their own country, so I doubt that there will be such big difference from live performance.

[Saint-loup]

Another high quality thread this year! TY tyKiwanuka for centralizing all that stuff.
I'm glad to see that Azerbaijan will send back Efendi, Romania Roxen, and Spain Blas Canto  

When I will have time, I want to compare list of already confirmed participants and odds for last year Eurovision. I wouldn't be surprised if some countries which weren't ranked well by bookmakers decided not to send same participants in 2021 .

You can still find the "final" odds for ESC2020 there : https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

[lebregone]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

I will just hope that the seeded to win will still get a good odds so we can try our luck by staking our bet to those five participants if it is possible to bet to
more than 1 participant to win the contest.

[fiulpro]

Using the same people is not something incomprehensible, it's the music industry we are talking about, they can be actually in the race for years. I do not think that Ukraine will have very good songs recently I was able to hear some of the local performances but over the years I must say that they quality have decreased, keeping aside the factor of the voice I do believe that the new songs have lost most meaning.
This would be really interesting to see progress here. I do think I will get on France if I had to.

I happen to live in Albania for work from sometime now and let me tell you that the winner of the National Song Festival here won the title in an unorthodox way(I cannot say more but all the capital talks of her having an affair with some high profile member organizer of the event) and based on this let me say she is not going to win anything in Eurovision and she will be eliminated in the first night.I agree with what people are talking here as all are sharing the same idea.

Same thing goes for many small nations so we can't bet on anything. The world is not fair anymore. These things have been becoming common since years and now corruption is everywhere..

[tyKiwanuka]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

The ESC is normally covered by "all" bookmakers, at least the winners market. In most bookies you will find Top3, Top10, H2H and other side markets additionally. Even Betfair will have these markets at a later point.

I will just hope that the seeded to win will still get a good odds so we can try our luck by staking our bet to those five participants if it is possible to bet to
more than 1 participant to win the contest.

Being seeded for the final doesn't say anything about your chances to win the ESC. It's just that you, as one of the big payers, don't have to through the semi-final qualification round. In fact the Big5 do very bad generally in ESC (because people don't necessarily like to see the big countries win). The last win from one of these countries was Germany in 2010, followed by UK in 1997. France last won in 1977, Italy in 1990 (they took a long break in the 90's and 00's) and Spain in 1969.


@Saint-loup
Thanks, and welcome to the 2021 thread, I was hoping you would show up here

[Saint-loup]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

It's a little bit early IMO because songs haven't been revealed yet, and most of top dog singers aren't known.
But you can already bet on the Melodifestivalen 2021 of Sweden (I see Ditto is in competition again this year   ... and the Mamas too lol ) or on San Remo 2021 contest at several bookmakers.

[tyKiwanuka]

France and Israel have made their selections:

Barbara Pravi - Voilà
Eden Alene - Set Me Free

The french entry is totally not mine, but maybe some people will like it. As we know non-english songs generally have a bit harder time, but at least "Voilá" is a word that everyone knows
Israel is a more modern pop song and kind of catchy, but in the end the typical ESC trash. Odds above 300 don't suggest this entry being able to make any noise, but you never know

If anyone finds the songs/videos of Greece/Cyprus, please post, but I don't think they have been published yet.


@LTU_btc

Is this the song from The Roop for this year ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWqrdzNoBKA

[LTU_btc]

@LTU_btc

Is this the song from The Roop for this year ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWqrdzNoBKA

Yes, this is their song for 2021. Now I'm not sure why do we need national selection when we already know winner of it. Maybe it's less catchy song than "On Fire" and I'm not sure can it be contender to win whole contest (I'm biased ), but The Roop managed to make another great song.
I watched some performances from our national selection and I can say it's waste of time and money in general.

[kryptqnick]

Eurovision is a popular contest in my country, so I tend to follow the top nominees and winners. It's not a secret that even though the contest is meant to apolitical, it's actually very political (and honestly, I don't think it's such a bad thing because they tend to support important things). So my preliminary guess is that Belarus will make it to the final round and is likely to win the contest if they take part in it (and if those taking part are not Lukashenko supporters) because of all the things that happened in Belarus in 2020. But of course, it's too early to say for now, and I'll be following the updates to see where this is going.

[LTU_btc]

So, Lithuania had decided  to send The Roop to Eurovision again. How unexpected . Here is their song for those who haven't saw it yet : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kcm-uZSslw.
They got 74 500 votes from people, while other 5 finalists got just 11 500 votes combined.

So my preliminary guess is that Belarus will make it to the final round and is likely to win the contest if they take part in it (and if those taking part are not Lukashenko supporters) because of all the things that happened in Belarus in 2020. But of course, it's too early to say for now, and I'll be following the updates to see where this is going.

I think Belarus have no chance to win. First, it's not allowed to bring political messages in songs and also, most people aren't paying much attention to things, which is going on in Belarus, so, I doubt that they are going to vote for Belarus. I predict that Belarus will get most points from neighbour countries like usual. And also, it's impossible that they will send someone who is against Lukashenko because participants is selected through state owned television.

[kryptqnick]

Ukraine announced their song, so perhaps the table should be updated. The song is called "Noise" ("Shum"). Here's a link to the song. And here's a link to the proof that this is the song from Ukraine. The song is very bizarre, but people seem to like it, and it combines both folk music and the visual part which reminds of the COVID-19 pandemic which might be beneficial.

I think Belarus have no chance to win. First, it's not allowed to bring political messages in songs and also, most people aren't paying much attention to things, which is going on in Belarus, so, I doubt that they are going to vote for Belarus.

Belarus might not participate this year due to political issues, but I still think they could easily win if they did and managed to make a song that is vaguely against the current regime. You're saying it's not allowed to bring political messages, and of course they cannot be mentioned explicitly. However, a political message matters a lot in the end. I remember well how in 2016 Ukraine won the Eurovision with a song about the deportation of Crimean Tatars that happened back in 1944. Even though the song was about the past, it was clearly associated with the fresh memories of Russia annexing Crimea and Tatars facing discrimination there once again.
Apart from this example, Netta won in 2018 with a clear feminist message of her song, and a few years before, Conchita Wurst won which raised awareness on homosexuality and openly being oneself.
Some years are just about nice melodies which are often about love or something like that, but other years have clear political winners. 2020 was a very tough year, so I think the song that wins is going to be about some political aspect. But of course, we'll know more closer to the date.

[tyKiwanuka]

I have added Lithuania/Ukraine to the list and Germany also announced their artist, whom I don't know, but not the song yet. Glad that The Roop get another chance this year, but as said the song isn't that good this time unfortunately. The ukrainian entry, well

Belarus might not participate this year due to political issues, but I still think they could easily win if they did and managed to make a song that is vaguely against the current regime.

I don't think Belarus stands a chance with "just" some political song, it takes a bit more to win the ESC. This competition always covered some social elements as you mentioned, but you have to have an above average entry as well - then some little extra message coming along with your song could put you on top, even when there are technically better entries. But, no offense to all people from Belarus, I don't think a lot of people are aware and/or interested what happens in Belarus and it wouldn't influence their vote that much.

And Belarus is doing pretty weak in ESC in general. They participated 16 times since 2004 and reached the final only 6 times. Of those 6 times they finished 5 times out of Top15 (24/16/16/17/24) and once took 6th place in 2007. It really needs a great song and stellar performance for them to win "easily" imo - political statement or not

[FatFork]

Croatian broadcaster HRT has chosen its entry into Eurovision 2021 with the unique show of its national selection, 'Dora'.
After all the votes of the jury and the public were counted, Albina won first place with the song "Tick-Tock" and she will represent Croatia at the ESC 2021 in Rotterdam.

Albina – Tick-Tock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX9fBSTjUfk


EDIT: I've updated the post with the link to the official video.

[madnessteat]

~
I'm a bit surprised that Russia won't send Little Big, considering that they were contenders to win. Almost every their new song and clip become viral on Youtube, so I think they would be serious contenders again.
~

Looking at recent articles from various Russian-language sources, we can conclude that this moment is not yet determined and the band "Little Big" still has a chance to represent Russia at Eurovision 2021. I couldn't find any specific confirmation of this from Ilya Pruskin or other band members. I think we'll find out within the next month.  

[tyKiwanuka]

~snip~

Thanks, added her to the list. The song is really crap imo and even the performance was nothing special (to not say boring); sometimes you wonder how crappy the other entries in the national selections must have been The odds for Croatia have gone up accordingly.

North Macedonia and Moldova have revealed the name of their songs now, but I wasn't successful in actually finding them on Youtube, so I guess just the name was released. Which leads me to the question, where the point is in just releasing the name of a song. These artists are not some superstars, where the world is waiting impatiently for just the name of their song


Some bookies now have odds and it feels like these are influenced a lot by last years odds with some artists coming back after 2020 edition was cancelled:


Source: https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/tv-specials/international/eurovision-song-contest/2021-eurovision-song-contest/232206849/all-markets

Here you can find a screenshot of the odds in March last year. France is new among the favourites for now, the rest is more or less the same.

At this point you can really find super valuable odds, if you follow the national selections a bit, which is not always easy to do. But you can also be dead wrong, thats the risky part

[LTU_btc]

North Macedonia and Moldova have revealed the name of their songs now, but I wasn't successful in actually finding them on Youtube, so I guess just the name was released. Which leads me to the question, where the point is in just releasing the name of a song. These artists are not some superstars, where the world is waiting impatiently for just the name of their song

Good question, I'm wondering about it too. Maybe they want to make some hype, some release short teasers of song before publishing full version of it. But as you said, they aren't worldwide famous stars and there is no millions of fans waiting for these songs.
Personally I liked Croatia song. Simple, fun pop song, I'd rather listen such style songs than boring ballads. I think they can reach final.

France is new among the favourites for now, the rest is more or less the same.

I think it's a bit strange. Correct me if I'm wrong, but France is rarely listed as favorites. Personally, I'm not big fan of such kind of songs, I think it's not Eurovision material, especially considering that this song isn't English.

[tyKiwanuka]

Weekend update, things are shaping up a bit:

Ireland has announced their song name "Maps", but not the song itself yet.

Norway is traditionally doing very good in ESC and they will send TIX with the song Fallen Angel: TIX - Fallen Angel - Norway 🇳🇴 - National Final Performance - Eurovision 2021. The performance looks all in all in a bit weird, but should suit what the audience/viewers like to see in ESC. The song is ok, a bit lame maybe and Norway is around@ 40 to win ESC.

Czech Republic is trying their luck with Benny Cristo and a song called Omaga: Benny Cristo - omaga - Czech Republic 🇨🇿 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021. This is some hot garbage imo, even the video Odds are ~@500 for winning, I doubt they will make the final, since they are traditionally not very good in ESC.

Finland has a very unique/unusual entry with Blind Channel and the Dark Side: Blind Channel - Dark Side (Live) // UMK21. Reminds a bit of Lordy with the style and I loved Lordy and also think this song has some potential to finish high. Odds dropped quite a lot and Finland is among the favourites for now with @17.

Spain has revealed their song Voy a quedarme: Blas Cantó - "Voy a quedarme" (Destino Eurovisión) 🇪🇸 SPAIN 2021. If you have a non-english song, it has to be very good to make some noise and I don't see it here. That guy has a very annoying voice for me somehow

UK will send James Newman, but the song will only be announced in March.

[aesma]

The French song is nice, it's not some random eurodance with butchered English lyrics, so it will lose in my opinion.

That Finland rap/metal Linkin Park imitation is more like it.

[tyKiwanuka]

Ireland has published their song: Lesley Roy - Maps - Ireland 🇮🇪 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021. I already liked the one for 2020 and this one I like too. Won't have any chances to win, but maybe 10-15.

Slovenias entry: Ana Soklič - Amen - Slovenia 🇸🇮 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021. What bothers me is, that the voice somehow doesn't fit to the lady you see on stage You would expect a more higher and fragile voice. Don't like it overall and the market not as well.

After weeks of only knowing the song title, we now have some music that goes along with the entry for Cyprus: Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo - Official Music Video (Eurovision 2021 Cyprus). Good modern song, around @30 to win, I think this will be lower closer to May, so looks like value right now.

Austrias song performed by Vincent Bueno will be "Amen", but it has not been published yet. It's called the same as the song from Slovenia - not sure, if this is allowed tbh (?)

Icelands song will be "10 years". Not published yet. Serbia with Hurricane will try their luck with a song called "Loco Loco", but not yet published as well. Tornike Kipiani will sing "You", but we will have to wait for some music still.

Jendriks song for Germany: Jendrik - I Don't Feel Hate - Germany 🇩🇪 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021 I don't think this is super bad in regards to ESC, because it's very unique and kind of funny, which can be liked by the ESC community. Odds are around @300 and I think this is too high - Germany won't win, but if the odds for winning are too high, then Top10, Top5 and H2Hs are too high as well. Would be interested to hear what others think about this.

The French song is nice, it's not some random eurodance with butchered English lyrics, so it will lose in my opinion.

I have read this mutliple times, but makes no sense to me You think it's nice, but then think it will lose. There can of course only be one winner - and I don't think it will be France - but I wouldn't call being placed like 2-10 losing, it's still a very good result. Even making the final is already a win in my book.

[TheNineClub]

From an objective standpoint, I don't think that Croatia has a horse in the race. The song does not stand out from the numerous modern pop songs on the radio, and if not for the euro song contest I doubt it would be getting any considerable airplay. It has a good chance of getting buried beneath some either more unique artists on the Eurosong bill.

 I'd say that last year's representative, that did not get a chance to compete, had a better chance of standing out. Also, I don't get the whole mixing of languages in one song. I don't mind being pigeon English, but at least be consistent through the song. This is just not working at all in this song IMHO. Let's see if the difference in song quality can be made up by a strong stage presence and a good stage act.

[Saint-loup]

Spain has revealed their song Voy a quedarme: Blas Cantó - "Voy a quedarme" (Destino Eurovisión) 🇪🇸 SPAIN 2021. If you have a non-english song, it has to be very good to make some noise and I don't see it here. That guy has a very annoying voice for me somehow

I'm very disappointed by his song this year because I really liked his song the previous year, Universo ("perdoname uni-universo" lol)

The French song is nice, it's not some random eurodance with butchered English lyrics, so it will lose in my opinion.

I have read this mutliple times, but makes no sense to me You think it's nice, but then think it will lose. There can of course only be one winner - and I don't think it will be France - but I wouldn't call being placed like 2-10 losing, it's still a very good result. Even making the final is already a win in my book.

I really dislike this song, Barbara Pravi just want to seduce the audience with an Edith Piaf resemblance, but I think it will fail and she won't be able to reach the top5, and maybe even the top 10. IMO odds at bookmakers are currently good for her  because this classical old style is generally well appreciated by country juries, and because she is the writer of the winning song of the last Eurovision Junior(J'imagine - Valentina), but I don't think the public votes for that.
For the moment I really like the ukrainian entry and the irish one which reminds me the Corrs. The Croatian song is not bad too.

[LTU_btc]

I like Ireland song, maybe nothing very special, but it's good song. But I don't know why bookmakers rate it so bad.
@tyKiwanuka, I have similar thoughts like you after watching video of Slovenia song. What I can say, it's not my kind of song.
Cyprus song is one of these which I like mst so far. If it would be made by famous western pop star, it would be hit on radio, Youtube and Spotify.
What I can say about Germany song - WTF . I think it's not bad, but seems it got a lot hate. it has almost 10k dislikes on Youtube and I don't get why people disliked it so much. Also, Germany usually performs very poorly with few exceptions, I don't even know what they would need to send to reach final.
With more songs announced, now we can get more clear image about favorites. It;s interesting that Iceland, Russia and Sweden are favored by bookmakers when their songs aren't even announced. Also, it's not common to see France between favorites, especially considering that their song in non-English.

For the moment I really like the ukrainian entry

You're one of rare persons who liked this song. Well, it's not typical pop song, and personally, i'm not big fan of folk songs. Also, their music video looked a bit creepy for me .

[STT]

Nice setup, its hard to know the right combination of song elements that would win but I rate the Irish and French entries.   I think the French entry has more passion and might have a better chance but obviously I need to hear them all.   The Albania entry, I liked the Oboe in it and sometimes a song itself can be greater then the singer but in this case I dont rate it overall.   Those rumours appear often in showbusiness its hard to know if true or not, people get jealous but my judgement anyway I dont think it will catch enough attention internationally to get the win overall.
  The Cyprus entry is too generic, I got bored of that one feels like a worn copy of something I heard previous years maybe a decade ago; not terrible I dont hate it but its not catchy imo.

[tyKiwanuka]

For the moment I really like the ukrainian entry (...)

You're one of rare persons who liked this song. Well, it's not typical pop song, and personally, i'm not big fan of folk songs. Also, their music video looked a bit creepy for me .

I don't like it at all too, but thats music, peoples taste are different. It's super unique, which I generally find good, because the ESC tends to have a lot of similar songs - your typical "ESC trash". These unique songs are more likely to do really bad rather than doing really good form my experience. But it's worth a shot, since it's better to finish 25-25-25-1 than to finish 15-15-15-15 all the time. Ukraine won the ESC in 2004 performing some folk-ish song from Ruslana with Wild Dances: Ruslana - Wild Dances. Actually a very nice and catchy song, with a good on-stage performance. I don't see this with Ukraine this year.


My personal favourite is still Finland (odds @22 now) And I am looking forward to what Belgium and Bulgaria will put on the table. I loved the song from Bulgaria/Victoria last year and while Belgium/Hooverphonic didn't catch me last year, I like their style in general.

[TopTort777]

a very nice and catchy song, with a good on-stage performance.

That is the solution to win in most of Eurovision Song Contests. If while listening to the song you stomp your feet and wave your head from side to side - this song is going to be among top5. But which one is going to be on first place depends on politics.

I always find it strange how countries select their representatives. I'm always amazed why countries send contestants like "I dont remember the country, but there were 2 or 3 old men singing a ballade or slow song, with almost no music instruments. Just beautiful voices by professionals". The sons is nice, but that never wins. But what wins is "song made mostly on single synthesizer with "HEY-HEY-HEY" words".

[Saint-loup]

But what wins is "song made mostly on single synthesizer with "HEY-HEY-HEY" words".

LOL   Could you tell us which song like that has won Eurovision until now? Because I don't remember such a song among the winners of the contest since the beginning.

The Cyprus entry is too generic, I got bored of that one feels like a worn copy of something I heard previous years maybe a decade ago; not terrible I dont hate it but its not catchy imo.

For me it's a Lady Gaga clone, her song reminds me Bad romance from her.

[FatFork]

I suppose what makes this contest fascinating is that even if you don't think a certain song has a chance to win, you can still enjoy watching the competition. I enjoyed watching all of the entries as they were revealed, and some of them really stood out. On a personal level I liked most the entry from Ireland, so far. The song is very lively and I think something like that could win this year because of all this happening with the pandemic.

An official video for the Croatian song (Albina - Tick-Tock) was released a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8IM3Y5gY9E

But what wins is "song made mostly on single synthesizer with "HEY-HEY-HEY" words".

LOL  Could you tell us which song like that has won Eurovision until now? Because I don't remember such a song among the winners of the contest since the beginning.

Probably because it never happened, except maybe in his head.

[TopTort777]

But what wins is "song made mostly on single synthesizer with "HEY-HEY-HEY" words".

LOL   Could you tell us which song like that has won Eurovision until now?

It was just a joke. I was trying to say that among all the opera singers, music bands that play on lots of musical instruments and all other music gurus, song made in just a week by throwing sounds and bits in dance ejay and writing primitive lyrics like "Im a barbie girl" would likely win.

Second song would win


Guess the Eurovision song winner format

[LTU_btc]

@TopTort777, I think you have good point. Probably most of times in last 10-15 years Eurovision was won by typical pop style songs. I think it's nothing surprising because. It's difficult to win Eurovision with alternative style songs. But every year we have such songs - some kind of opera, folk, slow balades and etc, and it's good, everyone can find songs for their taste.
But there is always exception from the rule. Like Portugal song few years ago. Probably none of us can't remember how it sounds, but they somehow managed to win.

[TopTort777]

But there is always exception from the rule. Like Portugal song few years ago. Probably none of us can't remember how it sounds, but they somehow managed to win.

Great example. I remember that guy, beautiful song and voice. And most important, he performed alone, dressed like a regular guy in shirt and jeans. Not like Russia once for example, with ice skate ring, world ice skating champ and a guy that played Stradivarius violin together with regular pop song singer. Of course they wanted to make a show, but that was too much, too flashy. That remind me Apollo Creed entrance show before his fight against Ivan Drago in Rocky 4

As to Portugal - that was something unusual for Eurovision song contest. If I'm not mistaken, Portugal singer had some health issues. Wonder if he is well right now.

[madnessteat]

~snip~

Haha. That's a good point. Listening to popular songs of the last five or ten years you understand that if before the song had a meaning and was filled with experiences of the singer nowadays there is practically none. And with each new generation there is less and less lyricism in the songs.

[Saint-loup]

But what wins is "song made mostly on single synthesizer with "HEY-HEY-HEY" words".

LOL   Could you tell us which song like that has won Eurovision until now?

It was just a joke. I was trying to say that among all the opera singers, music bands that play on lots of musical instruments and all other music gurus, song made in just a week by throwing sounds and bits in dance ejay and writing primitive lyrics like "Im a barbie girl" would likely win.

Second song would win


Guess the Eurovision song winner format

LOL that's a very caricatural point of view IMHO, before Salvador Sobral, the portuguese you mention who won in 2017, Jamala from Ukraine won in 2016 with a song about the Tatars deportation in 1944. The last winning song (in 2019) was a sad song too.

[tyKiwanuka]

We are getting closer to having all entries

Australia's song from Montaigne: Montaigne - Technicolour - Live at Mardi Gras 2021. Not a fan of this. The studio version sounds a bit better, but she will have to perform live at ESC as well. Absolutely not my kind of song Odds around 180 right now to win.

Was super curious about Hooverphonic for Belgium and am a bit disappointed: Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place - Belgium 🇧🇪 It's the typical style of Hooverphonic, but I find this kind of boring. Odds around 100.

Roxen's song for Romania: ROXEN - Amnesia - Romania 🇷🇴 It's ok I think, but nothing special in the end. Odds around 70.

Estonia will send Uku Suviste with this: Uku Suviste - The Lucky One - Estonia 🇪🇪 Odds of 320+ say it all

Moldova finally revealed their song: Natalia Gordienko - SUGAR - Moldova 🇲🇩 Moldova generally isn't super successful at ESC, but we have odds of "only" around 100 here, so this looks to be liked by quite some people. Not sure why.

The song from San Marino: Senhit - Adrenalina - San Marino 🇸🇲 This could do well imo, since these kind of songs have been doing well in the past too. Odds just 27. With a good stage performance, Top10 is possible.

The song/video for Serbia: Hurricane - LOCO LOCO - Serbia 🇷🇸 Would have been better to do it in english imo, since it's not too bad for ESC standards. Odds 250+.

Denmark will send Fyr & Flamme with a danish song: Øve os på hinanden Odds are 300+ and I think this is a bit high. Not the greatest song of all time, but I think it will "work" in ESC, even if not in english.

The Black Mamba will start for Portugal: The Black Mamba – Love is on My Side Nice song, very unique, odds are 150+, which looks a bit high. I like the voice of that singer and the pretty simple performance. Could be a bit too boring in the end.

The hosts revealed their song: Jeangu Macrooy - Birth Of A New Age - The Netherlands 🇳🇱 Winning the ESC back to back is super hard nowadays and the Netherlands will fail as well. Odds of 300+ are too high though for a song which isn't too bad.

And finally Italy: Måneskin - ZITTI E BUONI Pretty unusual entry for Italy and Finland will not be very happy this Not a fan of this song from Italy, but just by the odds they will finish Top3. I will probably oppose Italy with my betting, if the odds stay like that


It's still missing some songs from highly anticipated participants like Russia, Sweden, Iceland, Bulgaria, but we get a better picture now already. Iceland are favourites for now, followed by France and Italy. But all still very tight and odds will change a lot for sure in the coming weeks.

Armenia withdrew from this years ESC for political reasons.

[Saint-loup]

Armenia withdrew from this years ESC for political reasons.

LOL they are afraid of being humiliated by Azerbaijan, last year Athena Manoukian(Chains on you) finished 22nd at bookmakers while Efendi was in the TOP 10. https://archive.is/tU9si

I really like the song from Hooverphonic, however it's sad to see they are unable to sing in one of the 3 official languages of their country, at least one part of their song. The italian song(in italian) is really nice but I've been impressed by Moldova, Serbia and San Marino entries : how such small countries are able to finance those kind of productions?
Roxen not bad, but that's not a killer song.

[LTU_btc]

@tyKiwanuka, thanks for another detailed updated.
I liked Australia, for me it sounds like a song from past. But whole performance on stage looks not impressive. Offcourse, things will be different on ESC.
Begium have quality song this year. It's not contender to win, but I think they're a bit underrated.
Estonia song don't have nothing catching for ke. But I can say that production and his performance on national final is high level.
Didn't liked Moldova song, too sweet for me . But wouldn't be surprised if they will get a lot points from Russia, considering who is producer of song .
San Marino - wow, I'm impressed! Fact that they have Flo Rida in their song makes it even more impressive.
Serbia, despite that their song isn't in English, I like it, it sounds very well.
Denmark, sorry, but I think they have no chance to reach final.
Netherlands selected not typical song for Eurovision. I think they are underrated way too much.
Italy, another non English song that I like. Damn, this year we really have many different style songs.

BTW, Russia also selected what they will send to Eurovision this year:
https://youtu.be/dBgm_d61K7E
What I can say, I didn't liked it at all. I'm really disappointed that they didn't send Little Big.

LOL they are afraid of being humiliated by Azerbaijan, last year Athena Manoukian(Chains on you) finished 22nd at bookmakers while Efendi was in the TOP 10. https://archive.is/tU9si
[/quote]
Yeah, I still remember their last year song and I liked it. Azerbaijan usually invest a lot money in Eurovision and often they have good results.

[STT]

Iam always surprised the range of countries that enter into the ESC like Azerbaijan, I dont quite get the logic as thats not Europe in location (or similar distant entries) but it doesnt matter its only singing contest.

Eligibility for potential participation in the Eurovision Song Contest requires a national broadcaster with active EBU membership that would be able to broadcast the contest via the Eurovision network.

especially considering that this song isn't English.

English is international but so is French, Spanish very much and ultimately I dont count language against a song too much in its prospects.

Saying that I like this entry alot, but I might be biased to its 'type':

Roxen's song for Romania: ROXEN - Amnesia - Romania 🇷🇴 It's ok I think, but nothing special in the end. Odds around 70.

The Belgium entry sounds good to me, I dont know its got the killer line to catch votes maybe too close to average or generic.   Yea I got bored at the end sadly.

Finland nope, its ok I guess but nothing special even in its music section and I dont believe it'll get appeal overall tbh      The Spanish song is more likely the type to get a more general appeal, he can sing but I dont love the song to go with this.    Eventually I will decide but not quite outstanding for those that I heard so far.

[Saint-loup]

Iam always surprised the range of countries that enter into the ESC like Azerbaijan, I dont quite get the logic as thats not Europe in location (or similar distant entries) but it doesnt matter its only singing contest.

Eligibility for potential participation in the Eurovision Song Contest requires a national broadcaster with active EBU membership that would be able to broadcast the contest via the Eurovision network.

That's because Azerbaijan is a member of the Council of Europe along with other caucasian countries like Armenia and Georgia.
But Azerbaijan is also a member of the EaP (Eastern Partnership) of the European Union with Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and of the GUAM organization with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

[tyKiwanuka]

(...) I dont quite get the logic as thats not Europe in location (...)

The EBU and Europe are two different things, so you just have to be EBU member to be eligible to participate All those north african countries are also part of the EBU and could participate, but only Morocco did so in the past. The only exception is Australia, who are guest in ESC since 2015, since there is a big ESC community down under.

It's the same as with UEFA. Israel, Kazahkstan, Azerbaijan etc. play in UEFA qualifiers, their domestic teams in UEFA Champions/Europa League. Why ? Because the UEFA is a different organization than "Europe".

English is international but so is French, Spanish very much and ultimately I dont count language against a song too much in its prospects.

I normally don't do as well, but this is all from a betting perspective, because english songs do better in ESC in general, so higher chance of winning. English is understood by the most people overall and people are used to hear english music. If it was just about singing in the language the most people are native in (in EBU), then your song should be in german (but I wouldn't recommend that).

BTW, Russia also selected what they will send to Eurovision this year:
https://youtu.be/dBgm_d61K7E

Thanks, added it (an audio only, since the video from your link was taken off). What a weird song

[BitcoinAccepted]

Usually the bookmakers are always right with the odds for the winner.

As far as I remember, the last years always the top favorite won.

Last time we had the winner, was the year the Dutch guy won? He was also top spot favorite before the event started.

[LTU_btc]

Thanks, added it (an audio only, since the video from your link was taken off). What a weird song

Seems that your video was taken off too. I don't know why, but it's still not available on Youtube on official channel. So far there is only video on Russian TV website https://www.1tv.ru/-/ijzwl
Belarus also selected participants for 2021 contest:
https://youtu.be/_RMHKaIsac0
Their song is in Russian too and judging from comments and dislikes on Youtube, it's highly unliked by Belarus people. Shortly without going deep into details, mainly because of politics and they weren't able to select participant themselves. Well, I also can't said something good about song.

[Saint-loup]

Thanks, added it (an audio only, since the video from your link was taken off). What a weird song

Seems that your video was taken off too. I don't know why, but it's still not available on Youtube on official channel. So far there is only video on Russian TV website https://www.1tv.ru/-/ijzwl
Belarus also selected participants for 2021 contest:
https://youtu.be/_RMHKaIsac0
Their song is in Russian too and judging from comments and dislikes on Youtube, it's highly unliked by Belarus people. Shortly without going deep into details, mainly because of politics and they weren't able to select participant themselves. Well, I also can't said something good about song.

I don't speak russian but in the Youtube comments people are saying that's a propaganda song for the belarusian government  

Go_A(Ukraine) have revamped their song, I don't like it very much, I prefer their first version.

The EBU and Europe are two different things, so you just have to be EBU member to be eligible to participate

Yes but if you are a member of the Council of Europe you're eligible to the EBU membership.

Membership is for broadcasting organizations whose countries are within the European Broadcasting Area, as defined by the International Telecommunication Union, or are members of the Council of Europe.

https://www.ebu.ch/about/members

[tyKiwanuka]

I have edited the table again and put all the "correct" Youtube links from ESC channel in, where available.

Russia now has an official video, but still doesn't get any better for me

Belarus has also announced their entry: Galasy ZMesta - Ya Nauchu Tebya (I'll Teach You) - Belarus 🇧🇾. Pretty unusual entry for Belarus, who had more pop/techno-ish/whatever songs in the past. I really like the song this year, but Belarus is generally not doing that good in ESC unfortunately.

We will get some more songs/videos today and in the upcoming days and then the list should be complete more or less. Just Azerbaijan and Malta are a bit late^^


Source: https://eurovision.tv/calendar

[Saint-loup]

I have edited the table again and put all the "correct" Youtube links from ESC channel in, where available.

Russia now has an official video, but still doesn't get any better for me

Belarus has also announced their entry: Galasy ZMesta - Ya Nauchu Tebya (I'll Teach You) - Belarus 🇧🇾. Pretty unusual entry for Belarus, who had more pop/techno-ish/whatever songs in the past. I really like the song this year, but Belarus is generally not doing that good in ESC unfortunately.

We will get some more songs/videos today and in the upcoming days and then the list should be complete more or less. Just Azerbaijan and Malta are a bit late^^


Source: https://eurovision.tv/calendar

Yes you didn't mention it above but the Austria entry has been released this morning, the song is not bad IMO but that's obviously a song for a strong voice and Bueno doesn't seem to have it, I doubt he will be able to reach the final.




Switzerland and Greece entries will be released in few hours this afternoon and Bulgaria's one this evening (UTC time speaking)

[TheGreatPython]

I never understood gambling on these things, there are things like beauty pageants, "miss universe" type of thing, and eurovision, and many other things like that which are basically subjective, there is nothing that can be proven as better or not. In a football match if a team scores more goals that team wins, in a basketball game if a team scores more baskets they win, in a fight if a fighter knocks out another fighter they win, even in fighting when it is points, they look at the numbers, in tennis we have a system to decide who wins, but in these things it is all about "I think this is better" and all based on decisions and that's it, it is all people's opinions.

I never liked betting on things that are fully based on people's opinions, maybe I do not agree with you? Maybe the one I bet is the best one for me? Why would I have to accept defeat when only difference is someone else picked someone else? I really do not get it.

[Saint-loup]

I never understood gambling on these things, there are things like beauty pageants, "miss universe" type of thing, and eurovision, and many other things like that which are basically subjective, there is nothing that can be proven as better or not. In a football match if a team scores more goals that team wins, in a basketball game if a team scores more baskets they win, in a fight if a fighter knocks out another fighter they win, even in fighting when it is points, they look at the numbers, in tennis we have a system to decide who wins, but in these things it is all about "I think this is better" and all based on decisions and that's it, it is all people's opinions.

I never liked betting on things that are fully based on people's opinions, maybe I do not agree with you? Maybe the one I bet is the best one for me? Why would I have to accept defeat when only difference is someone else picked someone else? I really do not get it.

I agree with you it can be more subjective than many other contests, but are you betting to be fair or to make money? In this kind of competitions there are fair amounts of money to make...   For example I've recently made some nice profits with the Golden Globes. Bookmakers are pretty good at assessing outcomes in this matter actually, so it means it's not at all impossible to do.

[LTU_btc]

Some more countries announced their songs, though I see that @tyKiwanuka already added most of it to OP
Latvia - Samanta Tina with song The Moon is Rising: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBaCWHSyDzo
I'm a bit biased to rate our neighbours song, but I like it more than their lat year song. Though, it will be difficult to reach final.

Vasil - Here I Stand - North Macedonia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbXczPgRI7Y
Strong voice, but not ESC material, I think.

RAFAŁ - The Ride - Poland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsWwLWaZBq8
Not bad song, it can reach final, but seems that people in Poland are unhappy about their national TV choice for contest.

James Newman - Embers - United Kingdom https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMDGTsa_Qq0
Really decent song, UK definitely can reach final, what happensd not very often.

Gjon's Tears - Tout l’Univers - Switzerland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpM6o6UiBIw
Main favorite to win according to bookmakers so far. I can say that's just not my kind of song.
Only few songs are yet to be announced remaining.
Also, Belarus will have to pick new song. EBU didn't accepted their song because of political context:
https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1370023010325831688?

I never understood gambling on these things, there are things like beauty pageants, "miss universe" type of thing, and eurovision, and many other things like that which are basically subjective, there is nothing that can be proven as better or not. In a football match if a team scores more goals that team wins, in a basketball game if a team scores more baskets they win, in a fight if a fighter knocks out another fighter they win, even in fighting when it is points, they look at the numbers, in tennis we have a system to decide who wins, but in these things it is all about "I think this is better" and all based on decisions and that's it, it is all people's opinions.

I never liked betting on things that are fully based on people's opinions, maybe I do not agree with you? Maybe the one I bet is the best one for me? Why would I have to accept defeat when only difference is someone else picked someone else? I really do not get it.

You have good point. But I think Eurovisio betting isn't about subjective opinion, you like song or no. It's about what majority of people like, and we are talking about millions of people. And usually, odds reflect these things well.
Even some sports are about subjective opinion of people, where few referees in stadium decide everything. Let's take figure skating, gymnastics, skateboarding and etc

[tyKiwanuka]

Thanks @LTU_btc. Yes, I filled the table up yesterday, but was too lazy to make a post

And I agree with your opinion about the latest entries; don't like any of them very much, but Switzerland is indeed top fav now, which amazes me. Only thing I disagree is with UK reaching the final or not - they are already in final

Here are the main favourites:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports

~snip~

~snip~

I think the ESC is betable just like any other sports/event, you just have to adjust your style and know your stuff (which I don't claim to do). There are some patterns and dynamics you can witness year after year. For example if Russia and Belgium had the identical, very good, entries, then Russia would finish better than Belgium, because Russia will get more "friendly" points from all those Ex-USSR countries. And this is not some fraud, but also about music culture. In the different parts of Europe/EBU, different music is popular. So someone from Belarus is more likely to enjoy the russian entry than someone from Portugal. Same goes for the Ex-Yugoslavian countries, the Scandinavian countries etc., they seem to stick together, but it's more about culture. So a good song from a country with lots of "friends" and diaspora is very likely to contest for the win.

The bigger countries like Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy generally have a bit harder time at ESC, because people like underdogs. They rather give their vote to some smaller country, that is not that often in the spotlight and I think it's fine.

It's not all about the peoples opinion, because there were juries introduced some years ago to make the competition a bit fairer. Now the juries are a bit biased as well, because it's just normal that the croatian jury will like some folk-ish song from Serbia better than some pop song from Iceland - the cultural thing again.

Then of course you always have countries exchanging points for various reasons, but that is no secret anymore. Cyprus/Greece, Romania/Spain, Finland/Hungary etc.

And last but not least, if you are an expert in music, you can very well judge, which song is good/well produced/well sung. And if you are really really good, you might be even able to anticipate which song catches the masses, without being a masterpiece from a technical point of view.

All in all, you can make good money with the ESC, though I wouldn't recommend to put huge stakes. For me it's always fun to bet on it and when the votings are announced country by country it gets very exciting and the markets (at Betfair) go crazy. But I am no music expert and seem to have a weird taste, so I am not expecting to make a lot of money with this

[Saint-loup]

Azerbaijan and Georgia's entries have been released today.
That's not bad songs IMO but that's not game changer songs either.
"You" from Tornike Kipiani is a love song, sad and slow




and Mata Hari from Efendi is a very similar entry as last year, it's almost the same song to be honest
 


Only Malta and the new entry of Belarus are missing now.

[tyKiwanuka]

Only Malta and the new entry of Belarus are missing now.

Yep, even the Eurovision YT channel has added nearly all official videos now, just Italy is missing apart from those two.
There are some entries with loads of clicks already: SRB 3.9mln, Croatia 2mln, even Moldova has nearly 1mln already - all more than the odds favourites. But it's just a very small indicator

I am a bit disappointed with the swedish entry, although it's probably the right choice, if you want to win the ESC. I was keeping my fingers crossed for Clara Klingenström, for me the this was the best song in Melodifestivalen.

Not convinced by AZE/GEO as well. Their odds are 55/350+ respectively, so won't make a lot of noise.
Switzerland is only 3.7 now, followed by Bulgaria with around 8. Then France, Italy, Sweden come next all around 11.

[Saint-loup]

I am a bit disappointed with the swedish entry, although it's probably the right choice, if you want to win the ESC. I was keeping my fingers crossed for Clara Klingenström, for me the this was the best song in Melodifestivalen.

Thank you for the sharing, well I wouldn't say she could win ESC2021 with that but I find her way better than Tusse and her Voice(s)   I wonder who are voting at Melodifestivalen?

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

[TopTort777]

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

Candy ! Btw, this strategy, as making song that will make laugh or want to watch/listen to it once might work. What worries me - this is just a clip. How to perform all the on stage?

P.S. Try to recognize music clips parodied there.

[LTU_btc]

Few words about latest released songs:
Georgia - as I saw in comments on Youtube - not everyone's cup of tea.
Azerbaijan - yeah, almost same as last year. Probably they will reach final, but I liked last year song more.
Malta - strong contender to win. Not bad.
Sweden - I expected something more from them. Not bad, but sounds like very typical Eurovision song

For example if Russia and Belgium had the identical, very good, entries, then Russia would finish better than Belgium, because Russia will get more "friendly" points from all those Ex-USSR countries. And this is not some fraud, but also about music culture.

You said it very well, except this one. Things are more complicated here . Usually Baltic states and Ukraine don't gives many points to Russia, also Russia rarely votes for these countries. Usually Russia get most points from Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia. While often we exchange points with our neighbours, Ukraine and Georgia also involved in this thing too. Politics and relationship between countries play big role here

[TheNineClub]

English is international but so is French, Spanish very much and ultimately I dont count language against a song too much in its prospects.

I normally don't do as well, but this is all from a betting perspective, because english songs do better in ESC in general, so higher chance of winning. English is understood by the most people overall and people are used to hear english music. If it was just about singing in the language the most people are native in (in EBU), then your song should be in german (but I wouldn't recommend that).

English has been definitely used a lot in the contest but is not among the majority when it comes to winners. These are the percentages up to 2020: 46,3% English, 20,9% French, 32,8% Other.
The problem does arise when you have songs that mix languages when one of those is in English. Then it becomes hard to track what led to the good placement of the song. Here is a good article on that subject with those percentages mentioned above: https://eurovision.tv/story/only-songs-performed-in-english-do-well

[Saint-loup]

You said it very well, except this one. Things are more complicated here . Usually Baltic states and Ukraine don't gives many points to Russia, also Russia rarely votes for these countries. Usually Russia get most points from Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia. While often we exchange points with our neighbours, Ukraine and Georgia also involved in this thing too. Politics and relationship between countries play big role here

You're certainly right but I think this year Russia won't get many points from its allies, because Moscow authorities seem to not support the song.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/03/18/moscow-to-probe-russian-woman-eurovision-entry-for-illegal-lyrics-a73291
AFAIK there have been controversies about Manizha because she's not fully russian but tajik and now the lyrics of her song are attacked.
I think it's quite unfair because she's very courageous to rap in russian while Russia didn't submit an entry in russian since more than a decade.
Finally I like her song, and I like her energy, I'll certainly vote for her.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7J4lAGeFKo

[FatFork]

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

Candy ! Btw, this strategy, as making song that will make laugh or want to watch/listen to it once might work. What worries me - this is just a clip. How to perform all the on stage?

P.S. Try to recognize music clips parodied there.

Damn, girl, what's in those pills? 

I have to admit, I kind of enjoyed this. I think she's so good that people will vote for her, not the song. Much like Israeli singer Netta won the competition with her song "Toy".
As for the live performance, I don't think there will be any problems. She won the 2015 Junior Eurovision Song Contest, the Maltese version of The X Factor, and also, she participated in the eleventh series of Britain's Got Talent and finished in 6th place.^source

[Saint-loup]

Malta's entry has been released, that's an humorous song as for Germany(and Russia ?) but I must confess she managed to make me laugh  

Candy ! Btw, this strategy, as making song that will make laugh or want to watch/listen to it once might work. What worries me - this is just a clip. How to perform all the on stage?

P.S. Try to recognize music clips parodied there.

Damn, girl, what's in those pills? 

I have to admit, I kind of enjoyed this. I think she's so good that people will vote for her, not the song. Much like Israeli singer Netta won the competition with her song "Toy".
As for the live performance, I don't think there will be any problems. She won the 2015 Junior Eurovision Song Contest, the Maltese version of The X Factor, and also, she participated in the eleventh series of Britain's Got Talent and finished in 6th place.^source

Bookies seem to agree with you because she's now the winner for almost all bookmakers https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision
I hope her live performance will be as funny as her music video because there will be competition, Flo Rida is announced to be on stage with Senhit for San Marino. https://escxtra.com/2021/03/21/flo-rida-eurovision-stage-2021/

[StartupAnalyst]

I think that soon they will disqualify the participant from Georgia. He recently wrote this post

It's sad that there is such a reality, when we have to use this shit show Eurovision to promote a song," the musician wrote. - I'll leave it here and your right to watch the music video or not, but if anyone says something negative about the performance - I'll fuck (rape) your mother. Thanks to everyone who is on my side."

Source: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/03/21/uchastnik-evrovideniya-ot-gruzii-ugrozhaet-heyteram-iznasilovaniem

[Saint-loup]

I think that soon they will disqualify the participant from Georgia. He recently wrote this post

It's sad that there is such a reality, when we have to use this shit show Eurovision to promote a song," the musician wrote. - I'll leave it here and your right to watch the music video or not, but if anyone says something negative about the performance - I'll fuck (rape) your mother. Thanks to everyone who is on my side."

Source: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/03/21/uchastnik-evrovideniya-ot-gruzii-ugrozhaet-heyteram-iznasilovaniem

Thank you for this news, it seems no western media has published this information yet. It's sad to hear that and if georgian people think he is disgracing them as it's stated in your (russian) article, I agree with them, it's better to disqualify or replace him if it's still possible in my opinion.  

[LTU_btc]

I think that soon they will disqualify the participant from Georgia. He recently wrote this post

It's sad that there is such a reality, when we have to use this shit show Eurovision to promote a song," the musician wrote. - I'll leave it here and your right to watch the music video or not, but if anyone says something negative about the performance - I'll fuck (rape) your mother. Thanks to everyone who is on my side."

Source: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/03/21/uchastnik-evrovideniya-ot-gruzii-ugrozhaet-heyteram-iznasilovaniem

Damn, serious stuff... Maybe he was drunk when he posted it? Wouldn't be surprised because original post is already deleted.
It's only a bit strange that no English speaking media haven't anything about it. If they will publish, no doubt that Georgia will have to find new participant for contest.

[FatFork]

Damn, serious stuff... Maybe he was drunk when he posted it? Wouldn't be surprised because original post is already deleted.
It's only a bit strange that no English speaking media haven't anything about it. If they will publish, no doubt that Georgia will have to find new participant for contest.

Yeah, there's too much crazy shit around that dude. It's strange that no mainstream media outlet has covered this yet.

[tyKiwanuka]

Belarus will not participate in ESC this year. They submitted a new song, but it wasn't accepted from EBU and they then failed to meet the deadline to re-submit again. So SF1 will now have 16 countries and SF2 17. See here.

I checked the YouTube numbers - more for curiosity than anything else, but it's still interesting. Bigger countries of course get more views generally, but when a tiny country like Malta is closing in on 2mln views, then this says something outside from the betting markets (I doubt the casual ESC fan also does some betting on this )



So Serbia has the most views, which is a bit odd considering they look to have no chance at all to even reach the final. Russia always has a lot of views because of huge population, but they still have way more views than other big countries, if we take the population into account. The songs in SF1 have ~7mln more views than the songs from SF2. Bulgaria - being among the favourites to win the ESC - has the second lowest views from all songs.

And the latest odds:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports

Three songs with a french title at the top, never seen this before I still like Finlands odds.....

[tyKiwanuka]

Pretty dusty in here, where are all of you ?

Checked some YouTube numbers again after some weeks and here are the Top10 gainers since March 28th when I last checked:



Malta really gets a lot of interest and they have cemented their position as the top favourite in the betting markets as well. France is now second favourite with odds around 6, despite them having really few views on YT and only +24% change. I could imagine that lots of (betting) people fancy them to get heaps of points from jury votes; in televotes I don't see France being super strong, but not sure.

Placed my first two bets:

Finland to win @40 (more for trading than actually thinking they can win it in the end)
Cyprus to finish Top10 @2.8 (really think this song will work very well in ESC)

[Stalker22]

The rehearsal schedule for the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 has been released.

Rehearsals with this year's artist will begin on May 8 at the Ahoy in Rotterdam and will continue until the live shows in May. Lithuania is first to rehearse on Saturday 8th May at 10am (CET). All rehearsals will be streamable in the Online Press Centre and journalists onsite in Rotterdam will be able to view artists' first rehearsals on screens in the Press Centre. Second rehearsals will be accessible in a designated part of the arena itself.
Stand-in rehearsals will begin on April 29th.

The full rehearsal schedule can be found here:
https://eurovoix.com/2021/04/24/%f0%9f%87%b3%f0%9f%87%b1-eurovision-2021-rehearsal-schedule-released/

[Cling18]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

I will just hope that the seeded to win will still get a good odds so we can try our luck by staking our bet to those five participants if it is possible to bet to
more than 1 participant to win the contest.

I didn't know that they offer this kind of game. It's a breath of fresh air and it will be fun especially for music-inclined gamblers. I find it exciting since it's new and I guess it would be easy to bet for the ones who perform the best. I'm looking forward to more events and games like this.

[bbc.reporter]

Pretty dusty in here, where are all of you ?

Checked some YouTube numbers again after some weeks and here are the Top10 gainers since March 28th when I last checked:



Malta really gets a lot of interest and they have cemented their position as the top favourite in the betting markets as well. France is now second favourite with odds around 6, despite them having really few views on YT and only +24% change. I could imagine that lots of (betting) people fancy them to get heaps of points from jury votes; in televotes I don't see France being super strong, but not sure.

Placed my first two bets:

Finland to win @40 (more for trading than actually thinking they can win it in the end)
Cyprus to finish Top10 @2.8 (really think this song will work very well in ESC)

Where did you find 40 odds for Finland? I saw sportsbet.io and cloudbet.com only had 30. I reckon all others also have similar odds.

Also, how is Eurovision winner voted? Are there some media storylines outside the contest like politics or important world events that can influence the results?

[tyKiwanuka]

Where did you find 40 odds for Finland?

At Betfair, it's still 40 there, hasn't moved. But as said, I don't see them winning, just performing better than the odds suggest. So, if you are not looking to trade, I wouldn't recommend to bet on them.

Also, how is Eurovision winner voted? Are there some media storylines outside the contest like politics or important world events that can influence the results?

It's 50% televotes and 50% jury votes from each participating country, while they can't vote for themselves of course See here: Voting

The result is influenced by a lot of things (politics, diaspora, friendly countries, (music) culture), but you won't win this thing with a poor song and performance. What a good song is, is of course very subjective, but the betting markets are generally pretty good in predicting the winner/the countries that will do good. I can't recall a HUGE outsider winning the ESC since I bet on this, and with huge I mean odds of 100+

I would probably concentrate more on some side markets, like H2H, Top3/5/10 etc.

[Goodluckmate.com]

Oh, I love this thread.

I listened to all the songs but right now I can remember only the Russian and the Finnish one. So, I guess those would be my favorites. I loved that the Russian singer was singing in Russian, I always love it when countries sing in their national language. The Serbian song wasn't bad but I don't think it's a winner. North Macedonia was like a Disney song and Cyprus was like a bad copy from Eleni Foureira which ended up second when Israel won. I remember liking another song but can't remember which one was it. So, I'll leave it at that.

Also, if you're a fan of Eurovision stuff and videos, you may like this lady - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPH-qBMrkosTN-84c8YP_1A - she's like reviewing the songs and reacting when hearing them for the first time. And she's hilarious at times. I found her randomly and then spent like hours watching her videos for this year's ESC. 

[bbc.reporter]

@tyKiwanuka. Is there a female candidate who is of color or who is Chinese, part Chinese? I speculate that the people around Europe have developed stronger convictions against racism after black lives matter. Singers of African, Asian descent or of the minority might get the sympathy votes especially if the song is about a hymn against racism.

[tyKiwanuka]

@tyKiwanuka. Is there a female candidate who is of color or who is Chinese, part Chinese? I speculate that the people around Europe have developed stronger convictions against racism after black lives matter. Singers of African, Asian descent or of the minority might get the sympathy votes especially if the song is about a hymn against racism.

I think Sweden is what you are looking for, but just go through all songs and see for yourself. There is an overview with links to all songs in first post of this thread.

Cyprus to finish Top10 @2.8 (really think this song will work very well in ESC)

This is below 2 now, very nice. Already thought of hedging, but I believe in this song, lol.


The latest winning odds from Orbit/Betfair:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports

Italy/Malta doing very good since I last posted, Bulgaria/Sweden went up quite a bit.

Although I don't like the italian entry, I think it will do VERY good, might even win this.

[bbc.reporter]

@tyKiwanuka. Sweden is the perfect candidate for this politically correct, liberal society hehehe. She is black and appears to be a lesbian. Another candidate who might reach the top 10 is Azerbaijan. Greece is also beautiful. What is the ratio of male voters to female voters?

[Saint-loup]

@tyKiwanuka. Is there a female candidate who is of color or who is Chinese, part Chinese? I speculate that the people around Europe have developed stronger convictions against racism after black lives matter. Singers of African, Asian descent or of the minority might get the sympathy votes especially if the song is about a hymn against racism.

AFAIK Vincent Bueno(Austria) is from Filipino origin(it should please Gambling section users ) and one of the backing vocalist of Manizha looks to be of Asian descent(chinese or kazak or something like that) but I don't remember any other contestant looking asian. I don't know if she's lesbian but the current favorite of the contest, Destiny, is already black. So Tusse is not likely to beat her upon this criteria IMO.

[tyKiwanuka]

What is the ratio of male voters to female voters?

Hmm, I don't know, 50/50 maybe ? What I can tell you is, that the ESC community is more younger people, but not the very young ones, maybe people aged 30-50. And ESC has a big LGBT community 

-

Betfair has added some more markets, but not a lot of liquidity until now:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934

Once there is some more liquidity, I will lay France to win the televote. As said, I think they will get the majority of their points form the juries.

These side markets are really way more interesting than the winner market. Good value to be found there Just needs lots of time to analyze all this

[Saint-loup]

What is the ratio of male voters to female voters?

Hmm, I don't know, 50/50 maybe ? What I can tell you is, that the ESC community is more younger people, but not the very young ones, maybe people aged 30-50. And ESC has a big LGBT community  

-

Betfair has added some more markets, but not a lot of liquidity until now:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934

Once there is some more liquidity, I will lay France to win the televote. As said, I think they will get the majority of their points form the juries.

These side markets are really way more interesting than the winner market. Good value to be found there Just needs lots of time to analyze all this

Few big (fiat) sportsbooks are also offering this kind of bets : Bwin, Unibet, Betway, Betsson ... And there seems to be very interesting opportunities there. It's sad that crypto sportsbooks are still not offering those markets, betting on the winner while the contest occurs only one time per year is not very interesting.

[Saint-loup]

Rehearsals have started at Rotterdam since Saturday and small footages of few dozens of seconds of each rehearsal are available on the youtube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/c/EurovisionSongContest/videos

Well I didn't watch all of them yet but I'm still impressed by Manizha performance, the paintings and orthodox icons displayed on the giant screen behind her are just wonderful, I really like the Efendi, Hooverphonic and Rafal performance too.

Today we will see the first rehearsals of the big 5 and host countries.

[Goodluckmate.com]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

[Saint-loup]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

       

[Goodluckmate.com]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

       

hahah agree 100%, why the drama when you can have all the fun! That's why Malta and Russia got my attention, their performances seemed so alive and colorful. But the song is cool anyway. And France I really don't know why it's a favorite because it's so slow and I don't really think that countries from the 'big 5' ever win except for Germany that one time ten years ago with Satellite (which was a cool, dancy song). I don't think France will win now would bet on it honestly. 

[Saint-loup]

hahah agree 100%, why the drama when you can have all the fun! That's why Malta and Russia got my attention, their performances seemed so alive and colorful. But the song is cool anyway. And France I really don't know why it's a favorite because it's so slow and I don't really think that countries from the 'big 5' ever win except for Germany that one time ten years ago with Satellite (which was a cool, dancy song). I don't think France will win now would bet on it honestly. 

Yes the song is cool and even bigger they are still cool and pretty, but they are not so funny dancing and dressed like that.


For France, the first reherseal of Barbara didn't convince me more, her show looks very austere I think.


Besides that Flo Rida was still not on stage for the 2nd rehearsal of Senhit

[FatFork]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

Yup, Serbia has such a cheerful and upbeat song, but it's rather forgettable, in my opinion. And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video. 
I know it is not okay to comment on a woman's weight, but it's their choice to show so much skin, so...

Barbara's song "Voila" has that classic French flair (reminiscent of Edith Piaf's "Padam, Padam"). It was time for the French to send a decent song after a series (except for 2018) of bad songs and performances. After listening to all the songs, I felt she had potential (remember the Portuguese song from 2017? ), but I think that this year, considering the overall situation with the Coronavirus pandemic, we need something more optimistic, more cheerful.

[Cryptmuster]

Yup, Serbia has such a cheerful and upbeat song, but it's rather forgettable, in my opinion. And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video. 
I know it is not okay to comment on a woman's weight, but it's their choice to show so much skin, so...

Barbara's song "Voila" has that classic French flair (reminiscent of Edith Piaf's "Padam, Padam"). It was time for the French to send a decent song after a series (except for 2018) of bad songs and performances. After listening to all the songs, I felt she had potential (remember the Portuguese song from 2017? ), but I think that this year, considering the overall situation with the Coronavirus pandemic, we need something more optimistic, more cheerful.

That's right, I want to be positive after a difficult year of the pandemic. France has a good song that it has, but I don't think it deserves to be a winner. It is difficult to choose a winner, because it is very subjective, everyone likes their own, but perhaps the winner should be a positive song with a catchy motive, which will soon sound on all radio stations. )

[Saint-loup]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

Yup, Serbia has such a cheerful and upbeat song, but it's rather forgettable, in my opinion. And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video.  
I know it is not okay to comment on a woman's weight, but it's their choice to show so much skin, so...

Barbara's song "Voila" has that classic French flair (reminiscent of Edith Piaf's "Padam, Padam"). It was time for the French to send a decent song after a series (except for 2018) of bad songs and performances. After listening to all the songs, I felt she had potential (remember the Portuguese song from 2017? ), but I think that this year, considering the overall situation with the Coronavirus pandemic, we need something more optimistic, more cheerful.

LOL you made me laugh fatfork  
For the Barbara's song I agree with you it's very similar to Padam, padam, and even too much similar I think. Eurovision Song Contest is a contest for original songs, so imitating a dead singer and an old song of his own country doesn't fit the spirit of the competition IMO. On the other hand Cryptmuster wants a happy song broadcasted on all radios but I'm not sure to be able to bear listening "Je me casse" everywhere lol

[mediaBuzz]

Reading this thread I remembered how people were crazy about Alexander Rybak's Fairytale after he won Eurovision in 2009. The song was everywhere for 2-3 years. Ringtones, ads, banners, background music, clubs, everywhere. Said he had to deal with his depression for the last few years. As far I know he is doing well now and kinda returned back to the industry. He has a great personality, don't you think?

[tyKiwanuka]

My Finland bet is looking pathetic, doesn't even make sense to hedge it now But a least Cyprus Top10 @2.80 is looking like good value, currently trading around 1.35.

Did any of you place some bets ? There is lots of action in markets and I regret not jumping on Italy earlier, they are now top favourite to win ESC, with France being a close second.

(...) I don't really think that countries from the 'big 5' ever win except for Germany that one time ten years ago with Satellite (...)

Yep, the Big5 generally have a harder time in ESC, which I think is because they get lots of attention all the time anyway, so in ESC it's time to shine for the smaller countries and people want some "outsider country" to win. But you now have two Big5 countries leading the pack, which tells something, because withthout the handicap of being a Big5 country, we would probably see ITA/FRA at even lower odds and all the rest being @20+.

(with 10kg more ).

And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video. 

Well observed

That outfit from the Swiss dude also made me laugh hard


I will be doing a little competition here in this thread. Eligible are all users who have posted in this thread at least once until now and are not nick-named BitcoinAccepted, which is:

@swogerino
@LTU_btc
@alegotardo
@lebregone
@fiulpro
@Saint-loup
@kryptqnick
@FatFork
@madnessteat
@aesma
@TheNineClub
@STT
@TopTort777
@StartupAnalyst
@Stalker22
@Cling18
@bbc.reporter
@Goodluckmate.com
@Cryptmuster
@mediaBuzz

Entering this competition is pretty easy, just post your Top15 for the final here in this thread.

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8 )
9)
10)
11)
12)
13)
14)
15)

If that country is in Top15, you will get 1 point, if you put it on the correct place, you will get 3 points. Most points win 0.0015 BTC, which I will send to the winners wallet.

In case of a tie, the user who posted first, will win. Editing your post is not allowed and will disqualify you. Good luck

[Saint-loup]

That outfit from the Swiss dude also made me laugh hard

LOL Very nice Eurovision outfit  

Well thank you for the contest tyKiwanuka, I hope one of us will at least be able to guess the winner of ESC2021...
But you didn't mention until when we can post our top15 forecast. Can we post it after the semi-finals? Or we have to submit it before the first one?

Did any of you place some bets ? There is lots of action in markets and I regret not jumping on Italy earlier, they are now top favourite to win ESC, with France being a close second.

2 more markets have been added on Stake (semi-final1 & 2 winners). So I think I will place some bets there on 2 or 3 contestants on each market.

[tyKiwanuka]

But you didn't mention until when we can post our top15 forecast. Can we post it after the semi-finals? Or we have to submit it before the first one?

This can be any time you want until the final starts on Saturday.

2 more markets have been added on Stake (semi-final1 & 2 winners). So I think I will place some bets there on 2 or 3 contestants on each market.

And which ones ?

[Saint-loup]

But you didn't mention until when we can post our top15 forecast. Can we post it after the semi-finals? Or we have to submit it before the first one?

This can be any time you want until the final starts on Saturday.

2 more markets have been added on Stake (semi-final1 & 2 winners). So I think I will place some bets there on 2 or 3 contestants on each market.

And which ones ?

LOL I think I won't place any bets until few hours before the start of the shows because as for now it appears that 4 delegations at least have been placed in quarantine : Iceland, Poland, Malta and Romania.
And it seems that if they're not allowed to leave their quarantine by Dutch authorities, a former video of their performance will be broadcasted in place.

The EBU failed to comment on Daði og Gagnamagnið’s upcoming participation in the second semi-final on Thursday 20 May.

However, Eurovision Song Contest Executive Producer Sietse Bakker recently told NOS that in the event of a nation’s delegate testing positive, the act would be barred from performing on the Rotterdam Ahoy stage. Instead, they would have to resort to the live-on-tape recording that were filmed prior to travelling to The Netherlands.
 
Earlier this week, a member of Poland’s Eurovision delegation also tested positive for COVID-19. Again, the EBU did not comment on Rafał’s participation in Thursday’s semi-final. But soon after, Sweden’s Aftonbladet reported that Poland will use the recording of Rafał’s second on-stage rehearsal of “The Ride” rather than the live-on-tape backup recording.

News about the nature of Iceland’s participation is anticipated soon.

https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/16/iceland-eurovision-delegation-in-quarantine-after-positive-covid-19-test/265246/

I don't know how japanese people will manage that for the olympic games but it seems they're right to be afraid. Those so called bio-secure bubbles don't work obviously.

[LTU_btc]

@tyKiwanuka, that's nice contest, I'm definitely going to predict. But it would be quite stupid to submit predictions before semifinals. I still haven't decided who is my main favorite to win, probably I will have to rewatch some songs because I already forgot it a bit.

Reading this thread I remembered how people were crazy about Alexander Rybak's Fairytale after he won Eurovision in 2009. The song was everywhere for 2-3 years. Ringtones, ads, banners, background music, clubs, everywhere. Said he had to deal with his depression for the last few years. As far I know he is doing well now and kinda returned back to the industry. He has a great personality, don't you think?

Personally for me his Fairytale song become so annoying that wasn't able to listen it anymore . But damn, it was 12 years ago, time flies so fast... But yeah, Rybak looks like a good guy.

[Saint-loup]

Finally it seems that Destiny(Malta) and Roxen(Romania) will be allowed to participate on stage to the first semi-final this evening.
https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/17/update-malta-romania-iceland-poland-covid-19-eurovision-2021/265272/

I still haven't made my bets but I didn't remember that 3 countries of the Big5+the host country are allowed to vote at each semi-final in addition to the 16 countries participating in the semi-final
For the first semi-final the 3 ones will be Germany, Italy and Netherlands

[tyKiwanuka]

My bets for SF1:

Lithuania not to qualify @34
The song this year is way weaker than last years, though I think it's still ok, because it's pretty unique. But 1.03 to qualify is way too low imo, there is a lot of bias from last year in these odds and I do see some value here for Lithuania failing to qualify.

Slovenia not to qualify @1.16
i still think the voice doesn't fit the appearance of this lady. Slovenia is often struggling to reach the final and watching the second rehearsal, this is just not good enough for the final.

Sweden to qualify @1.22
Sweden only failed to qualify once (in 2010) and their entries are usually top-notch and well produced. It's the same this year and although I don't like that song, it's basically a lock for me to reach the final.

Croatia to qualify @1.36
Not sure, if this has any value, but the song is quite catchy. Croatia often struggles to qualify, so if the market puts them at 1.36 to qualify, I'll trust that

Thought about laying Russia to qualify as well, but they generally qualify, so passed on that. And would love to lay Ukraine to qualify, but that on stage performance is just too crazy, people will love it I think

[Saint-loup]

My bets for SF1:

Lithuania not to qualify @34
The song this year is way weaker than last years, though I think it's still ok, because it's pretty unique. But 1.03 to qualify is way too low imo, there is a lot of bias from last year in these odds and I do see some value here for Lithuania failing to qualify.

Slovenia not to qualify @1.16
i still think the voice doesn't fit the appearance of this lady. Slovenia is often struggling to reach the final and watching the second rehearsal, this is just not good enough for the final.

Sweden to qualify @1.22
Sweden only failed to qualify once (in 2010) and their entries are usually top-notch and well produced. It's the same this year and although I don't like that song, it's basically a lock for me to reach the final.

Croatia to qualify @1.36
Not sure, if this has any value, but the song is quite catchy. Croatia often struggles to qualify, so if the market puts them at 1.36 to qualify, I'll trust that

Thought about laying Russia to qualify as well, but they generally qualify, so passed on that. And would love to lay Ukraine to qualify, but that on stage performance is just too crazy, people will love it I think

Very interesting and IMO relevant bets, thank you for having shared them. I rather agree with all of them except for Sweden. @1.22 is IMO overrated. Her number of views on Youtube is pretty low I think, 216k for her second rehearsal vs 208k for Slovenia. Moreover she only reached the 14th place in this recent small poll https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/18/poll-results-maltas-destiny-is-your-favourite-to-win-semi-final-one-of-eurovision-2021/265311/


Several markets have been added on Stake : Top10, Top5, Top Nordic Country and Top Balkan Country (in addition to Semi-Final 1&2 winners and ESC winner), so I will be able to chase more EV and try some strategies  

[buwaytress]

Hey guys, ty;) I did not really remember about this contest, but I'm watching because a band I actually really liked since the 1990s are representing Belgium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EQyG1Yjlgw

Totally nostalgia here of course, just me throwing money at sentiment =D I don't even know what's good value but from what little I know, SMS voting is what wins most teams at the end of the day right?

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1. Malta should definitely get this on popular vote alone haha. GL ty!

[tyKiwanuka]

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1.

Is that for Top3 ? Then those are nice odds You can get Belgium @700 and Russia @80 to win^^

[Saint-loup]

Hey guys, ty;) I did not really remember about this contest, but I'm watching because a band I actually really liked since the 1990s are representing Belgium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EQyG1Yjlgw

Totally nostalgia here of course, just me throwing money at sentiment =D I don't even know what's good value but from what little I know, SMS voting is what wins most teams at the end of the day right?

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1. Malta should definitely get this on popular vote alone haha. GL ty!

I really like this song too, and I would send a vote for them if my country was allowed to vote at this semi-final. I hope they will be able to qualify.

Since to qualify markets are now available on Stake I have placed these few bets.
To qualify
Belgium @1.66
Russia @1.06
Croatia @1.30
Azerbaijan @1.53

To not qualify
Ireland @1.22
North Macedonia @1.10
Slovenia @1.14
Australia @1.30
Israël @1.57 for geopolitical reasons (war ongoing)

Top 10
Italy @1.11
Malta @1.12

[LTU_btc]

@tyKiwanuka, are you really betting on odds like 1.16 or 1.22?
About Lithuania, where did you found such odds for us not qualify. Local bookmaker giving just 15.00 for Lithuania not to qualify.
I don't have much experience betting on Eurovision, so I will just throw some money. Azerbaijan to qualify @1.60. Winner of semifinal Malta @1.55.
Agree about Israel not qualify.
Anyone betting on H2H markets. Sweden vs Norway I pick Sweden @1.50 and Belgium vs Israel my pick is Belgium @1.55.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears everything is presently on Youtube hehe. This was the live stream for the first semifinals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRIHdPDt6ew

I have not watched the whole stream, only my favorite bet Azerbaijan dancing the mata hari hehehe. Her odds to be included in the top 10 is 3.00. I speculate Sweden might also be voted in the top 10 and also Greece.

2 beautiful women and someone who the progressives might want to win hehehehehe.

[Kittygalore]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

[buwaytress]

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1.

Is that for Top3 ? Then those are nice odds You can get Belgium @700 and Russia @80 to win^^

It's for Semifinal 1 winner, so, was not really good odds I guess haha. Which other sportsbook offers these lines right now, do you know? Fairlay and Sportsbet the only ones I looked. Stake doesn't let me play anymore.

Malta only got 5th though;) Belgium made it 11th haha.

I also took now a Belgium top 5 at 17/1, which I guess isn't very good, but I'm too lazy to find a book and deposit right now so close to end of season, unless it's one I already maybe have an account on =D

@Saint-loup which country are you from?

[Saint-loup]

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1.

Is that for Top3 ? Then those are nice odds You can get Belgium @700 and Russia @80 to win^^

It's for Semifinal 1 winner, so, was not really good odds I guess haha. Which other sportsbook offers these lines right now, do you know? Fairlay and Sportsbet the only ones I looked. Stake doesn't let me play anymore.

Malta only got 5th though;) Belgium made it 11th haha.

I also took now a Belgium top 5 at 17/1, which I guess isn't very good, but I'm too lazy to find a book and deposit right now so close to end of season, unless it's one I already maybe have an account on =D

@Saint-loup which country are you from?

AFAIK results haven't been published anywhere yet. 11th was just the running order of Belgium on stage, they necessarily finished at a better place than that, because they are among the 10 winners of the semi-final. 
5th for Malta, I don't know what is it though, maybe it's a result from a poll?
I'm from France.

[buwaytress]

AFAIK results haven't been published anywhere yet. 11th was just the running order of Belgium on stage, they necessarily finished at a better place than that, because they are among the 10 winners of the semi-final. 
5th for Malta, I don't know what is it though, maybe it's a result from a poll?
I'm from France.

Ah, okay. So the order they were announced isn't their actual placing, I got it then. Malta was the 5th announced and Belgium the 9th, not the 11th as I mentioned (my apologies, I got mixed up).

Now I'm reading up and it's not clear to me when or how they announce SF 1 winners or SF 2 even. Everything I find online is just guidance on progression to Grand Final and jury + audience voting.

Yes, not exactly a Eurovision virgin here but this is still only my second (half-voluntary) rodeo;)

[tyKiwanuka]

The winners of the semifinals will only get announced after the final, to keep the tension high. If we knew the SF results already before the final, the final itself would probably be pretty boring (more boring than it is anyway already^^).

[LTU_btc]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

Australia are members of European Broadcastin Union and Eurovision is very popular there, so they got invited to this contest. Armenia withdraw because of social and political crisis after war in Nagorno Karabakh. Belarus were banned because their song had political message.

If we knew the SF results already before the final, the final itself would probably be pretty boring (more boring than it is anyway already^^).

Yeah, in first semifinal everything ended more or less as expected. From all songs, probably only Cyprus song stuck in my mind. But it sounds very similar to Lady Gaga song Alejandro or Rita Ora Anywhere. Intially I didn't liked Ukraine song, but now I changed my mind - I liked their energy on stage. Happy that Belgium reached final - they aren't contenders, but it's good to hear some quality music, not only generic pop.
Russia performance wasn't typical for them and I kinda liked it.

[Saint-loup]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

Australia are members of European Broadcastin Union and Eurovision is very popular there, so they got invited to this contest. Armenia withdraw because of social and political crisis after war in Nagorno Karabakh. Belarus were banned because their song had political message.

If we knew the SF results already before the final, the final itself would probably be pretty boring (more boring than it is anyway already^^).

Yeah, in first semifinal everything ended more or less as expected. From all songs, probably only Cyprus song stuck in my mind. But it sounds very similar to Lady Gaga song Alejandro or Rita Ora Anywhere. Intially I didn't liked Ukraine song, but now I changed my mind - I liked their energy on stage. Happy that Belgium reached final - they aren't contenders, but it's good to hear some quality music, not only generic pop.
Russia performance wasn't typical for them and I kinda liked it.

I agree with you there hasn't been any big surprise, everything has ended more or less as expected.
For Ukraine it seems they have been very appreciated by the public and by the bookmakers, they won several places in the rankings and are now the 4th entrant most likely to win the contest according to bookmakers.
The video of their performance is the second most viewed on Youtube of the semi-final (already more than 2million views as for now) and if you look at the comments below the video of the whole show you'll find a huge amount of comments supporting them and Azerbaijan, even from countries not participating.

Easily the biggest mover from the first semifinal is Ukraine. The two-time winner was even predicted to not make the final back when Go_A’s entry “Shum” was released. The group’s energetic stage performances since rehearsals have since caused massive waves for Go_A. Coming from obscurity, they now sit at fourth place on the odds, at around 9/1.
 
Their performance also racked up an outstanding half a million views on YouTube. This is the second most of all the semi-final performances, sitting second to Russia, which has over 800,000.

https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/19/eurovision-2021-odds-italy-is-still-the-favourite-to-win/265330/

[Saint-loup]

Nobody has placed any bet for this semi-final?


Semi-final 2 running order :

San Marino: Senhit – Adrenalina
Estonia: Uku Suviste – The Lucky One
Czech Republic: Benny Cristo – omaga
Greece: Stefania – Last Dance
Austria: Vincent Bueno – Amen
Poland: RAFAŁ – The Ride
Moldova: Natalia Gordienko – SUGAR
Iceland: Da∂i og Gagnamagni∂ – 10 Years
Serbia: Hurricane – Loco Loco
Georgia: Tornike Kipiani – You
Albania: Anxhela Peristeri – Karma
Portugal: The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side
Bulgaria: Victoria – Growing Up is Getting Old
Finland: Blind Channel – Dark Side
Latvia: Samanta Tīna – The Moon is Rising
Switzerland: Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’Univers
Denmark: Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden

There are 17 countries competing for 10 spots in the Grand Final.

[tyKiwanuka]

Didn't like the odds, but played Iceland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, San Marino, Portugal NOT to qualify. But nothing I would recommend to follow, otoh if one of them fails to qualify, it's already profit

[Saint-loup]

Didn't like the odds, but played Iceland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, San Marino, Portugal NOT to qualify. But nothing I would recommend to follow, otoh if one of them fails to qualify, it's already profit

Wow I thought I took offensive bets by betting on Poland @5.85, Latvia @3.85, Moldova @2.00 to qualify and Albania @2.35 to not qualify but it seems I have been a small player compared to you. I placed bets on all participants this time and they've all won except the 3 above but the odds were not very high for the other bets. It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

[Kittygalore]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

Australia are members of European Broadcastin Union and Eurovision is very popular there, so they got invited to this contest. Armenia withdraw because of social and political crisis after war in Nagorno Karabakh. Belarus were banned because their song had political message.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

[FatFork]

After two semifinals, 15 countries have been eliminated and 26 will compete in Saturday's final. Here is a final list of all the contestants in order of performance with links to their official music video and live performance (where available).

R/O	Country	Artist	Song	Music Video	Live
1	Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou	El Diablo	click	click
2	Albania	Anxhela Peristeri	Karma	click	click
3	Israel	Eden Alene	Set Me Free	click	click
4	Belgium	Hooverphonic	The Wrong Place	click	click
5	Russia	Manizha	Russian Woman	click	click
6	Malta	Destiny	Je Me Casse	click	click
7	Portugal	The Black Mamba	Love Is On My Side	click	click
8	Serbia	Hurricane	Loco Loco	click	click
9	United Kingdom	James Newman	Embers	click	click
10	Greece	Stefania	Last Dance	click	click
11	Switzerland	Gjon's Tears	Tout l'Univers	click	click
12	Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið	10 Years	click	click
13	Spain	Blas Cantó	Voy A Quedarme	click	click
14	Moldova	Natalia Gordienko	SUGAR	click	click
15	Germany	Jendrik	I Don't Feel Hate	click	click
16	Finland	Blind Channel	Dark Side	click	click
17	Bulgaria	VICTORIA	Growing Up Is Getting Old	click	click
18	Lithuania	The Roop	Discoteque	click	click
19	Ukraine	Go_A	Shum	click	click
20	France	Barbara Pravi	Voilà	click	click
21	Azerbaijan	Efendi	Mata Hari	click	click
22	Norway	TIX	Fallen Angel	click	click
23	The Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy	Birth Of A New Age	click	click
24	Italy	Måneskin	Zitti E Buoni	click	click
25	Sweden	Tusse	Voices	click	click
26	San Marino	Senhit	Adrenalina	click	click

source of data: https://eurovision.tv/event/rotterdam-2021/grand-final

[tyKiwanuka]

It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

It's really amazing how damn good these markets are priced, when you consider that there is some bit (or a lot) of randomness in it. In Betfair you couldn't even bet on Switzerland/Bulgaria to qualify, there were no odds to bet on (I just layed 1.01 which people were asking for).

At least we got some nice insights for the final. Ukraine will do very well I think; I didn't like that "song" in the beginning, but the more I hear it plus the stage performance, the more I like it. Portugal looks like some masterpiece as well, which will get loads of jury votings. Finland went from 160 -> 36 in Betfair, so my 40 looks kind of good again. Still don't think they will win, but it's the only rock-song and there is an audience for that among the ESC fans. After their performance Linkin Park was even trending on Twitter

[swogerino]

It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

It's really amazing how damn good these markets are priced, when you consider that there is some bit (or a lot) of randomness in it. In Betfair you couldn't even bet on Switzerland/Bulgaria to qualify, there were no odds to bet on (I just layed 1.01 which people were asking for).

At least we got some nice insights for the final. Ukraine will do very well I think; I didn't like that "song" in the beginning, but the more I hear it plus the stage performance, the more I like it. Portugal looks like some masterpiece as well, which will get loads of jury votings. Finland went from 160 -> 36 in Betfair, so my 40 looks kind of good again. Still don't think they will win, but it's the only rock-song and there is an audience for that among the ESC fans. After their performance Linkin Park was even trending on Twitter

I agree.There is a lot of randomness here as is different from the other types of betting where we know the players and the teams for example in sport betting.Here I think the odds are just some random odds because in the end it will decide the public plus the votes of each country towards each other.I think we cannot have a prediction at people's music taste and I think anyone can be a winner here because it is based on the votes if the rules haven't changed during this year.

[Saint-loup]

It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

It's really amazing how damn good these markets are priced, when you consider that there is some bit (or a lot) of randomness in it. In Betfair you couldn't even bet on Switzerland/Bulgaria to qualify, there were no odds to bet on (I just layed 1.01 which people were asking for).

At least we got some nice insights for the final. Ukraine will do very well I think; I didn't like that "song" in the beginning, but the more I hear it plus the stage performance, the more I like it. Portugal looks like some masterpiece as well, which will get loads of jury votings. Finland went from 160 -> 36 in Betfair, so my 40 looks kind of good again. Still don't think they will win, but it's the only rock-song and there is an audience for that among the ESC fans. After their performance Linkin Park was even trending on Twitter

If you layed Bulgaria at 1.01 you made a good lay bet IMO, I have been able to bet @1.01 on Switzerland and Bulgaria on Stake but I think 1.01 was overpriced for Bulgaria. Gjon's Tears(ch) was assured to get many jury votes because of his voice and his way of singing but it wasn't the case for Victoria(bg) IMO.

[LTU_btc]

2nd semifinal were less interesting as the 1st one. There is not that many songs that I liked there. Finland song I liked most. San Marino also stuck in my mind. Serbia had very typical Eurovision song, but I suspect that they will get support from other Balkan countries.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bulgaria were one of favorites, but now they went down in bookmakers ratings. Interesting what's the reason of it. Not a fan of such type of songs, but their performance was emotional and probably it will be reason to get more votes.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

Actually, their song was indirect message supporting regime of Lukashenko. Belarus Eurovision participants are selected by state-owned television, so, they would never let participate someone who is against President and his regime.

[Saint-loup]

2nd semifinal were less interesting as the 1st one. There is not that many songs that I liked there. Finland song I liked most. San Marino also stuck in my mind. Serbia had very typical Eurovision song, but I suspect that they will get support from other Balkan countries.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bulgaria were one of favorites, but now they went down in bookmakers ratings. Interesting what's the reason of it. Not a fan of such type of songs, but their performance was emotional and probably it will be reason to get more votes.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

Actually, their song was indirect message supporting regime of Lukashenko. Belarus Eurovision participants are selected by state-owned television, so, they would never let participate someone who is against President and his regime.

I agree with you the overall level was lower than for the first semi-final, with less amazing performances IMO. And I don't know why but the "big serbians" already get more than 4 million views on the ESC channel for their semi-final show, that's above the number of views of Efendi's performance 2 days before. I don't think they will finish in the top10 though but they could make a better score than expected.

[bbc.reporter]

My personal choices for the best songs and performances after watching the 2 semifinals shows are Portugal, Greece and Lithuania. Odds on them are Greece 126.00, Lithuania 81.00 and Portugal 34.00. I reckon Portugal might win the hearts of the voters with their song. I also realized that Eurovision is total entertainment without the politics that might affect the votes.

[TheNineClub]

2nd semifinal were less interesting as the 1st one. There is not that many songs that I liked there. Finland song I liked most. San Marino also stuck in my mind. Serbia had very typical Eurovision song, but I suspect that they will get support from other Balkan countries.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bulgaria were one of favorites, but now they went down in bookmakers ratings. Interesting what's the reason of it. Not a fan of such type of songs, but their performance was emotional and probably it will be reason to get more votes.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

Actually, their song was indirect message supporting regime of Lukashenko. Belarus Eurovision participants are selected by state-owned television, so, they would never let participate someone who is against President and his regime.

I agree with you the overall level was lower than for the first semi-final, with less amazing performances IMO. And I don't know why but the "big serbians" already get more than 4 million views on the ESC channel for their semi-final show, that's above the number of views of Efendi's performance 2 days before. I don't think they will finish in the top10 but they could make a better score than expected.

I would argue that the overall level of the competition has been low for the last 10 years. You see glimpses of genuinity here and there, but for the most part it was a bland mix of pop and badly desugned performances.

[tyKiwanuka]

I would argue that the overall level of the competition has been low for the last 10 years. You see glimpses of genuinity here and there, but for the most part it was a bland mix of pop and badly desugned performances.

Yep, totally agree I find it a bit odd that the quality doesn't seem to improve (read: it actually regresses) though, because it's a pretty big event with a huge audience, but the countries don't seem to bother with putting huge effort into this. For my country they are even happy to find someone who is willing to go there The "bigger" artists never bother to go to ESC, so it's always someone who nobody knows even here.


I added some bets:

Portugal to win jury vote @20
Portugal Top10 @2.06
Best Balkan -> Serbia @4.5 (Greece, Albania, Bulgaria are in the mix too, with Bulgaria being the fav, but those views for serbian entry have been really huge all the time, so there must be something going on).
Serbia Top10 @6
Ukraine Top4 @1.99

[Saint-loup]

Nobody has posted his Top15  

1)Italy
2)Malta
3)Switzerland
4)Ukraine
5)France
6)Iceland
7)Azerbaijan
8)Cyprus
9)Russia
10)Serbia
11)San Marino
12)Finland
13)Portugal
14)Lithuania
15)Greece

[LTU_btc]

Damn, completely forgot about it . Sorry if I'm late, but still, let's try just for fun.
1) Italy
2) Malta
3) Ukraine
4) France
5) Switzerland
6) Lithuania
7) Finland
8 ) Portugal
9) San Mrino
10) Bulgaria
11) Cyprus
12) Greece
13) Azerbaijan
14) Russia
15) Norway

[tyKiwanuka]

The final result for the competition:



Gratz @Saint-loup, please provide me a BTC address to send the prize to.


Happy for Italy My bets weren't that good I think

[LTU_btc]

Happy for Italy My bets weren't that good I think

I'm very happy for Italy too. Immediately after I saw their performance, I put kive bet on them to win @2.50.
Great to see rock song winning ESC first time since 2006. Not typical pop or boring ballade. Really didn't wanted to Switzerland or France to win - I already forgot how their songs sounds.
But how different is commission and public voting - it changed results completely.
And announcing public votes gave some awkward moments when UK, Spain, Germany and Netherlands got 0 points. UK got 0 points both from commission and public - well, their relationship with Eurovision is really complicated .

[Saint-loup]

The final result for the competition:



Gratz @Saint-loup, please provide me a BTC address to send the prize to.


Happy for Italy My bets weren't that good I think

LOL thank you very much tyKiwanuka but with only 2 contestants I don't think we can decently call that a contest. So I thank you very much but I suggest you to keep the prize and maybe if one day you have enough time, to organize a contest for another event with it, if you want.
Moreover I've earned some money with my bets.

ESC winner :
Italy @2.90, Malta @5.85

Jury vote winner :
Switzerland @5.05, Malta @3.90

Televote winner :
Italy @2.40, Ukraine @3.30

Top big 5 country :
Italy @2.25

Top Balkan country :
Serbia @2.75

Top Nordic country :
Iceland @1.85

Top 5 :
Italy @1.21
Switzerland @1.42
Ukraine @1.47
Malta @1.42

Top 10 :
Italy @1.11
France @1.05
Switzerland @1.05
Iceland @1.40
Ukraine @1.14
Malta @1.12
Cyprus @1.62
Azerbaijan @2.75
 

[Marvelman]

I'm a bit disappointed with this year's Eurosong.
I realize we differ in preferences, but I really thought France or Malta would win.

[tyKiwanuka]

So I thank you very much but I suggest you to keep the prize and maybe if one day you have enough time, to organize a contest for another event with it, if you want.

Nah, contest is contest and if only two users enter, that is not your problem. So, vite vite, give me BTC address - maybe you can do contest with it next year

And gratz for your bets.

[buwaytress]

Lost my outrights on Russia and Belgium. Actually surprised Belgium ended up pretty high despite lack of public votes and also thought Russia would finish higher but I guess I really don't know how people think.

Italy took everyone by surprise I guess. Recall an interview asking them why since metal hadn't won in over ten years and they said well, who knows?

Well done Saintloup. Sorry about France.

[Saint-loup]

So I thank you very much but I suggest you to keep the prize and maybe if one day you have enough time, to organize a contest for another event with it, if you want.

Nah, contest is contest and if only two users enter, that is not your problem. So, vite vite, give me BTC address - maybe you can do contest with it next year

And gratz for your bets.

ja ja schnell  
So as you want bro, I'll try to make a contest myself with your prize but I really want to avoid cheaters with multi-accounts and spammers who post in this section while not gambling in real life and not even liking it. So I don't know how I'll do that and I'll need some advice. If you have ideas tyKiwanuka don't hesitate.

bitcoin:bc1qr8r0n5gnqakkhctje3nlah43jjcz7rxv28jvrq (You can put the lowest fees available because I won't need them in the coming weeks)
Danke nochmal, Mann.

Edit: received  

[tyKiwanuka]

Sent, kein Problem mon ami

I would have a lot of ideas for contests, but as you anticipated, it's probably not worth it with how this section of the forum unfortunately is. Just save those BTC or invest in some good bets

[Saint-loup]

Thank you I will buy one gram of cocaine with it then.  
LOL I'm joking At least I will certainly have to manage a contest in the french section in few months, so I'll invite you.



https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210523-italian-eurovision-winner-to-take-drug-test

Some people in France are calling for the disqualification of Italy, to be able to win ESC in place of them. That's really shocking and shameful .
If it comes to be true Italy deserves a fine or a handicap for the next contest at most IMO, but we can't disqualify the winner of the competition for that.

[tyKiwanuka]

I think this whole discussion is really pathetic. It's not like Italy won because that guy maybe took some drugs, no, they had a really good song, great stage performance and a very charismatic band leader. This is just bad sportsmanship imo

I read on Wikipedia, that San Marino also filed a complaint, because there were some issues with the "rotating platform" during performance for jury

The results for SF1/2 are now available as well and lots of other stats:

SF1:

1) Malta
2) Ukraine
3) Russia

SF2:

1) Switzerland
2) Iceland
3) Bulgaria

Croatia missed the Final by just 5 points (Norway 115 points, Croatia 110), I think we all lost on that.

[babygun]

Lost my outrights on Russia and Belgium. Actually surprised Belgium ended up pretty high despite lack of public votes and also thought Russia would finish higher but I guess I really don't know how people think.

Italy took everyone by surprise I guess. Recall an interview asking them why since metal hadn't won in over ten years and they said well, who knows?

Well done Saintloup. Sorry about France.

I thought that France would win, she had the best performance but Italy put on a nice show and also deserved the win. Bookmakers also expected that Italy would win, so it wasn't such a big surprise. Biggest surprise for me was that Malta only ended 7th, I thought she would end in the top 4.

Placed a bet on Belgium top 10, just because I am from Belgium lol.

-snip

And announcing public votes gave some awkward moments when UK, Spain, Germany and Netherlands got 0 points. UK got 0 points both from commission and public - well, their relationship with Eurovision is really complicated .

Lol, that was a funny moment. It is the second time in a row that UK ended with 0 points  .

[buwaytress]

I thought that France would win, she had the best performance but Italy put on a nice show and also deserved the win. Bookmakers also expected that Italy would win, so it wasn't such a big surprise. Biggest surprise for me was that Malta only ended 7th, I thought she would end in the top 4.

Placed a bet on Belgium top 10, just because I am from Belgium lol.

Ha yeah, a surprise but not a shock. I mean, they and Ukraine got the most popular votes, that was the real surprise for me. I thought all the kids were gunning for the cute Swiss and cute Frenchie.

So envious of you being Belgian (I love Hooverphonic, grew up with them in the late 1990s so obviously so happy Geike reunited).

Lol, that was a funny moment. It is the second time in a row that UK ended with 0 points  .

Haha yeah, though at least last time around, they DID get some points from SMS voting but actually got more points from jury, so this was the worst performance ever poor guy!

I was actually really really surprised four countries got 0 points from SMS voting. I seem to recall 1,000 votes = 1 points on the last time, did that change this time? Hard to believe not even 1,000 German kids abroad didn't vote.

I do feel bad for him seeing that UK guy man, no one deserves that really haha. But Eurovision is at least partly a popularity contest and you can't expect to be the uncool kid and get anything but sympathy (which he got in loads at the show itself haha).

[Saint-loup]

For the ESC organization(EBU) the case of Maneskin is now closed, a test voluntarily undertaken today by Damiano has returned negative, and all footages available have been checked by them. They now call these allegations "fake news".

Following allegations of drug use in the Green Room of the Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final on Saturday 22 May, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), as requested by the Italian delegation, has conducted a thorough review of the facts, including checking all available footage. A drug test was also voluntarily undertaken earlier today by the lead singer of the band Måneskin which has returned a negative result seen by the EBU.

No drug use took place in the Green Room and we consider the matter closed.

We are alarmed that inaccurate speculation leading to fake news has overshadowed the spirit and the outcome of the event and unfairly affected the band.

We wish to congratulate Måneskin once again and wish them huge success. We look forward to working with our Italian member Rai on producing a spectacular Eurovision Song Contest in Italy next year.

https://eurovision.tv/mediacentre/release/ebu-statement-on-alleged-drug-use-at-eurovision-song-contest-2021

[LTU_btc]

Croatia missed the Final by just 5 points (Norway 115 points, Croatia 110), I think we all lost on that.

I think that if they would be in second semfinal, they would have reached final.

I was actually really really surprised four countries got 0 points from SMS voting. I seem to recall 1,000 votes = 1 points on the last time, did that change this time? Hard to believe not even 1,000 German kids abroad didn't vote.

I do feel bad for him seeing that UK guy man, no one deserves that really haha. But Eurovision is at least partly a popularity contest and you can't expect to be the uncool kid and get anything but sympathy (which he got in loads at the show itself haha).

I don't know exactly how they convert votes into points. But probably there is some changes needed, because now these moments looks a bit embarrasing and even announcers weren't feeling comfortable.

For the ESC organization(EBU) the case of Maneskin is now closed, a test voluntarily undertaken today by Damiano has returned negative, and all footages available have been checked by them. They now call these allegations "fake news".

I think it was obvious. It would just be so stupid to take drugs in front of all cameras and millions spectators in front of TV.
On the other hand, if test would be positive, do you think that ESC would publish it?

[Saint-loup]

Croatia missed the Final by just 5 points (Norway 115 points, Croatia 110), I think we all lost on that.

I think that if they would be in second semfinal, they would have reached final.

I was actually really really surprised four countries got 0 points from SMS voting. I seem to recall 1,000 votes = 1 points on the last time, did that change this time? Hard to believe not even 1,000 German kids abroad didn't vote.

I do feel bad for him seeing that UK guy man, no one deserves that really haha. But Eurovision is at least partly a popularity contest and you can't expect to be the uncool kid and get anything but sympathy (which he got in loads at the show itself haha).

I don't know exactly how they convert votes into points. But probably there is some changes needed, because now these moments looks a bit embarrasing and even announcers weren't feeling comfortable.

AFAIK each country ranks up contestants from the one having the most televotes to the one having the least televotes. And then gives 12 points to the first, 10 to the second, 8 to the third, 7 to the fourth and so on till 1 point. So only the 10 first countries can receive televote points. That means UK, Germany, Spain and Netherlands just didn't reach the 10 first places of televotes in any country, it doesn't mean nobody has voted for them. It's sad but that's not a shame, votes are not free so for the Grand Final people mostly vote for contestants being able to win the contest IMO.

For the ESC organization(EBU) the case of Maneskin is now closed, a test voluntarily undertaken today by Damiano has returned negative, and all footages available have been checked by them. They now call these allegations "fake news".

I think it was obvious. It would just be so stupid to take drugs in front of all cameras and millions spectators in front of TV.
On the other hand, if test would be positive, do you think that ESC would publish it?

I agree they certainly wouldn't publish it but they could take sanctions without saying anything about the test publicly, and they would certainly ask the Italian delegation to publish a statement admitting the fault.

[buwaytress]

AFAIK each country ranks up contestants from the one having the most televotes to the one having the least televotes. And then gives 12 points to the first, 10 to the second, 8 to the third, 7 to the fourth and so on till 1 point. So only the 10 first countries can receive televote points. That means UK, Germany, Spain and Netherlands just didn't reach the 10 first places of televotes in any country, it doesn't mean nobody has voted for them. It's sad but that's not a shame, votes are not free so for the Grand Final people mostly vote for contestants being able to win the contest IMO.

Actually it does seem that you're right after all. I can't remember how I thought that SMS voting was counter per thousand or something. It is possible I was misled by a 14-yr old child who was telling me everything in 2019 haha!

But yeah just checked, and televotes have the same weight was jury votes, each country tallies all the votes sent from its residents, and then the highest country voted gets 12 votes, next 10, and so on as you say.

I find it incredible there wasn't even sympathy votes for NL haha.

Still, poor UK, honestly =D

[Saint-loup]

I think this whole discussion is really pathetic. It's not like Italy won because that guy maybe took some drugs, no, they had a really good song, great stage performance and a very charismatic band leader. This is just bad sportsmanship imo

I read on Wikipedia, that San Marino also filed a complaint, because there were some issues with the "rotating platform" during performance for jury

The results for SF1/2 are now available as well and lots of other stats:

SF1:

1) Malta
2) Ukraine
3) Russia

SF2:

1) Switzerland
2) Iceland
3) Bulgaria

Croatia missed the Final by just 5 points (Norway 115 points, Croatia 110), I think we all lost on that.

It seems that Croatia got more televote points(53) than Sweden(51) or Belgium(47) so I think LTU_btc is right : if she had competed in the Semi-Final2 , she would certainly have managed to qualify.

Biggest surprise for me was that Malta only ended 7th, I thought she would end in the top 4.

Yes I agree as we can see in the post from tyKiwanuka she actually won the first Semi-Final and Ukraine(5th of the Grand Final) was behind her, but while she finished at the 2nd place of televotes in the Semi-Final1, she collapsed to the 14th place in the Grand Final   I don't know what happened