Will 2021 become the year of the Lightning Network?

[Abiky]

As Bitcoin's fees skyrocket, more people will find themselves obliged to look for an economic alternative for sending cross-border payments. The price in Fiat (USD) relative to fees denominated in BTC, makes Bitcoin impractical as digital cash for micropayments. Buying food or other daily necessities directly with Bitcoin will no longer be economically viable for the average person.

Fortunately, the Lightning Network is under heavy development to become the default scalability layer for Bitcoin micropayments. While it's still experimental, the development team behind it has worked hard to make it as practical as possible for everyday people. Some security issues here and there need to be addressed though, for the Lightning Network to experience a huge boost in mainstream adoption. With Bitcoin's fees increasing towards unprecedented levels, it seems to me that 2021 will become the year of the Lightning Network. That is if Bitcoin's price in Fiat continues to rise all the way to the moon. Yet, it may still be early to tell given that the LN is still in its early days.

Thoughts?

[RapTarX]

I don't think it;s happening anytime soon although Electrum has implemented LN. Very few people are aware of what LN is and how it works and most of them are aware of based on article, information given. Only a little amount of users have tried it. Therefore, it will take time to be popular among everyone. Before that, it's more important to have acceptance of LN everywhere. People will only find it useful once it's accepted in everywhere and you know very few merchants accepting bitcoins have implemented LN and I'm sure most of them don't know what LN is; the same happened with the segwit, still not used by everyone.

[Tstar]

Unless there is an enormous education campaign, 2021 will NOT be the year of the LN.

Most people are not aware of LN, not aware of how LN functions and how can they use it, benefits and so on.

[Jemzx00]

Lightning Networks may shine on 2021 depending on how the implementation and adaptation of various websites and wallets. As of now, only a few wallets implements Lightning Network on their platform and one of them is Electrum which is a famous bitcoin wallet. Once certain platforms adapted and used LN network, we can hear more information and knowledge regarding it. With the right direction, I can see LN be commonly used on 2021.

I expect major Gambling and Exchange Platforms be adapting Lightning Networks on their platform for a better and faster transaction inside and out.

[The Cryptovator]

No, I wouldn't agree with OP, and I don't think Lightning Network will popular by this year. It seems there isn't much exchange adapting it where most of Bitcoin stored. Even see on the SegWit addresses, most peoples not using it since most exchanges now accept it, can't we save fees by using the SegWit address. But still, it wasn't much popular. Lightning Network is more complicated I think and it will take more long time to adapt. Many Bitcoin users even don't know what is Lightning Network and how works it. There should an online learning academy that will spread the word about it and teach the peoples. Otherwise, it would gain faith.

[Poker Player]

Am I the only one who doesn't worry about the LN anymore? Bitcoin is succeeding as a store of value, if the LN is implemented and works, fine, but it seems to me that the institutions that are buying in mass are doing it as a store of value.

According to Gresham's law, people prefer to keep valuable currency, which is a store of value, and not use it for payments.

If bitcoin ends up succeeding in becoming the best reserve of value in the world, I don't care if people don't use it for small payments, which was Satoshi's original idea, but an idea often goes beyond what its creator conceived.

[?QuestionMark?]

It won't be the year of the lightning network. It will never be. Bitcoin is for the average person hard to understand. Since there are no good products on the market even for that problem. Lightning network makes this process even harder. It's even harder to understand on any point. The current LN user rate is very low. I don't know anybody who's using it, and I don't see why it should change.
The lightning network isn't a solution. It's just an excuse for not adjusting the block size.

[AmoreJaz]

Am I the only one who doesn't worry about the LN anymore? Bitcoin is succeeding as a store of value, if the LN is implemented and works, fine, but it seems to me that the institutions that are buying in mass are doing it as a store of value.

According to Gresham's law, people prefer to keep valuable currency, which is a store of value, and not use it for payments.

If bitcoin ends up succeeding in becoming the best reserve of value in the world, I don't care if people don't use it for small payments, which was Satoshi's original idea, but an idea often goes beyond what its creator conceived.

you have a valid argument here. right now, people are going into bitcoin, despite the fees involved. because most of them are here for potential long-term investment. not many of them are here because of its payment purposes. a lot of us are storing btc not because we can use it for our everyday expenses but for the hope that one day, our portfolio will gain more profit.
LN is somewhat unfamiliar path even to long-time crypto users. maybe because most exchanges as well as most merchants are not utilizing this network. this year is still not the year for LN. there's a lot to embark before we see massive adoption of LN.

[Welsh]

Most people are not aware of LN, not aware of how LN functions and how can they use it, benefits and so on.

Most people probably have encountered the Lightening Network, it just isn't something that they know the benefits of, and the cons of the technology. I think its current status could probably be categorized into "buzzword" rather than anything that's understand universally.  

The ease of use, and documentation needs to be greatly improved for it to be adopted on a larger scale. Its too complicated of a technology to be adopted otherwise.

Am I the only one who doesn't worry about the LN anymore? Bitcoin is succeeding as a store of value, if the LN is implemented and works, fine, but it seems to me that the institutions that are buying in mass are doing it as a store of value.

According to Gresham's law, people prefer to keep valuable currency, which is a store of value, and not use it for payments.

If bitcoin ends up succeeding in becoming the best reserve of value in the world, I don't care if people don't use it for small payments, which was Satoshi's original idea, but an idea often goes beyond what its creator conceived.

That's where your opinion might differ to others though. A lot of people are on the same page of Satoshi, that Bitcoin will be used a general alternative to fiat currencies, and isn't just used as a reserve currency. Its an ambitious thought, but personally I would agree to some extent. The current traditional money systems are not suitable for the long term, that is clear. However, I'm not entirely convinced Bitcoin is the solution either. Although, that's not saying I don't support Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin is the pioneer we needed to encourage people to think outside of the box, and while it might not be THE solution, it might be the one that started the process.

[TravelMug]

I agree with the sentiments here, even those who have experienced in crypto sphere see Lightning Network as a good "alternative" because of bitcoin skyrocketing fees right now, however, even for them it's too "complicated" to use. It might take some time though to fully adopt LN for now.

But it's good that we have it right now, sort of "nice to have" technology, but I don't think it cornered the market yet, people still prefer the old and traditional way.

[?QuestionMark?]

There should an online learning academy that will spread the word about it and teach the peoples. Otherwise, it would gain faith.

Sorry but no way that will work. People want that everything works easy and that it just works. As long it's a product or something that's used in daily life and they have a current product, people don' want to put effort and time into it. I don't think people went to academies for using services like PayPal or whatsapp, or how to use a mobile phone. People don't have time for that. Good teaching is when the brain uses an app or a service and after 2-5 mins you know how it works by heart, and you know it's better than the product you used before. That's why apps like PayPal are so successful.
Why should an average bitcoin user waste time and change? Besides the real problems like payment hub centralization, regulations and the thing in general with side chains of bitcoin controlled by for profit companies, its not user friendly and harder to understand and use.

[jademaxxiss012]

I would love to that it will going to happen due to cheap and private transfer of bitcoins. However, exchanges are not using LN to transfer or exchange bitcoin. So, still we need to do it the traditional way of exchanging bitcoin. If only there will be these kind in exchanges then that would be better for fast, easy and reliable bitcoin exchange.

[RapTarX]

According to Gresham's law, people prefer to keep valuable currency, which is a store of value, and not use it for payments.

You certainly have a valid point. As the supply is limited, people may only use it as store of value but still, it seems possible because we are in a bullrun where a lot of new investors are coming into the market. Certainly all of these will have an ending; someday the institute putting their money into bitcoin as treasury will certainly spread FUD and leave the market. Therefore, at the end of the day, you will be leaving with payments only I guess and that's what should it be IMO. I discovered it as ease method of payment; still using it as that.

[TedMosby]

I see OG Bitcoin and Bitcoin LN as a different thing.
despite what has been written on the whitepaper, the OG Bitcoin now more like a crypto asset.
meanwhile, Bitcoin LN trying to become a solution for people who want to use Bitcoin as a medium of digital transactions.
most people have bitcoin as a medium of investment, as a digital asset. that's why more people hold it rather than spend it.
since the hype leads bitcoin to be an asset, bitcoin LN will only have room for enthusiasts and experimental purposes only.
this is just my opinion.

[ChrisPop]

Transaction fees are voluntary on the part of the person making the bitcoin transaction, as the person attempting to make a transaction can include any fee or none at all in the transaction. On the other hand, nobody mining new bitcoins necessarily needs to accept the transactions and include them in the new block being created. The transaction fee is therefore an incentive on the part of the bitcoin user to make sure that a particular transaction will get included into the next block which is generated.

I've got the above from wikipedia. As Bitcoin price rises people won't spend the same amount of BTC on fees because it is not economical. I believe the Bitcoin is very efficient, but it has some small problems here and there such as getting too congested from time to time, but it does not happen very often. Luckily we already have the Lighting Network to handle this issue.

[testerx]

There still needs to be a few more things implemented in Bitcoin itself before LN can really scale. I think that's what Square is waiting for, they probably want to be able to onboard all the cash app users into lightning when it's ready but right now it just wouldn't be possible.
Probably by the end of the year though.

[thecodebear]

Am I the only one who doesn't worry about the LN anymore? Bitcoin is succeeding as a store of value, if the LN is implemented and works, fine, but it seems to me that the institutions that are buying in mass are doing it as a store of value.

According to Gresham's law, people prefer to keep valuable currency, which is a store of value, and not use it for payments.

If bitcoin ends up succeeding in becoming the best reserve of value in the world, I don't care if people don't use it for small payments, which was Satoshi's original idea, but an idea often goes beyond what its creator conceived.

Yeah, agree with this. Back in 2017/2018 I would argue that the store of value / digital gold thesis of Bitcoin would only be borne out if it is also highly spendable. And while I absolutely believe its spendability (tx capacity) needs to be increased to keep fees from becoming exorbitant, it is clear now that Bitcoin's status as digital gold is not dependent on it becoming highly scalable and directly usable for making purchases.

Instead Bitcoin's use as a currency to buy things will be through third party centralized services like Paypal. This is because Paypal (and similar services) can hold a bunch of Bitcoin and just move around numbers in a database a bunch of times, only occasionally settling changes to the blockchain when it needs to, vastly cutting down the number of txs on the blockchain compared with how many txs are actually happening between users.

LN may one day grow to be used by a lot of people, but as of right now it only attracted early hardcore users. It's been stuck at about 1000 BTC capacity for almost two years out of its three years of existence. It would be great if it starts to grow again and becomes a major feature for Bitcoin, but if it doesn't Bitcoin will still maintain its status as digital gold and it will still become the reserve currency for the world.

2021 will definitely not be the year of the LN. If it can finally start to grow again that would be great, but the vast majority of crypto owners are not going to care about the LN in 2021. Paypal is going to be a much more popular scaling solution for Bitcoin in 2021 than the LN is. But in general, using bitcoin to store wealth is always going to be the more popular use case over spending it, because its monetary design literally encourages it and discourages spending.

[buwaytress]

I won't mind this being the year LN really takes off and becomes super easy to use. It's been a long time coming, really, but I'd really also like to see Segwit just get implemented by services who've just been too lazy to upgrade since 2017. If everyone went full native Segwit, we'd just see fees drop off a lot and blocks get more txs in. But yeah, Lightning in 2021 being mainstream, why not?

[freedomno1]

Bitcoin does not need to be the be all end all for it and while the lightning network can perform multiple functions, the first mover would definitely be in Ethereum as we can see from the growth of De-Fi and related contracts from 1 Billion held in contracts to 16.75 Billion this year defiplulse.com
Oracles and Bitcoin integrated tokens may be the real competition to lightning as projects integrate and cross interact with one another.

https://defipulse.com/blog/2020-year-in-review/
https://defipulse.com/blog/introducing-bitcoin-at-work/

As others have mentioned in the thread lightning has 1100 BTC locked
https://defipulse.com/lightning-network
There is more Bitcoin on Ethereum networks than on Lightning and its been this way since March

After a few weeks of proximity, the overtaking has happened, the bitcoin locked on Ethereum thanks to DeFi projects have outnumbered those locked on Lightning Network.  
https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2020/03/12/defi-more-bitcoin-on-ethereum-than-on-lightning-network/

Now it's not even comparable 136000 BTC at time of posting compared to Lightning's paltry sum of 1100
https://defipulse.com/btc

That said competition is welcome and lightning does have a use case, it's just not necessary or essential to Bitcoins value at this point I think saying "How cute" is in order  
Ethereum is layer 2

[fiulpro]

As Bitcoin's fees skyrocket, more people will find themselves obliged to look for an economic alternative for sending cross-border payments. The price in Fiat (USD) relative to fees denominated in BTC, makes Bitcoin impractical as digital cash for micropayments. Buying food or other daily necessities directly with Bitcoin will no longer be economically viable for the average person.

Fortunately, the Lightning Network is under heavy development to become the default scalability layer for Bitcoin micropayments. While it's still experimental, the development team behind it has worked hard to make it as practical as possible for everyday people. Some security issues here and there need to be addressed though, for the Lightning Network to experience a huge boost in mainstream adoption. With Bitcoin's fees increasing towards unprecedented levels, it seems to me that 2021 will become the year of the Lightning Network. That is if Bitcoin's price in Fiat continues to rise all the way to the moon. Yet, it may still be early to tell given that the LN is still in its early days.

Thoughts?

I do no think that 2021 be the year of the lightning network, we have still not solved everything and this we have to still wait for the time when we will have solutions for the same.

Plus I don't think that we do need lightning network anymore. Now a days the sites have started accepting funds even after one confirmation and it's more or so instant and thus I do believe things like that are going to happen more or so in the future.

Therefore the lightning network will become obsolete. These kind of payments and transfers are more or so very instant. At the same time I do believe that we might or might not solve the lightning network problems but we can have a more or so widespread adoption of segwit network.

We do have options for sure. We don't have to wait for the lightning network to become perfect though.

There still needs to be a few more things implemented in Bitcoin itself before LN can really scale. I think that's what Square is waiting for, they probably want to be able to onboard all the cash app users into lightning when it's ready but right now it just wouldn't be possible.
Probably by the end of the year though.

Things implemented in bitcoins ? It's perfect the way it is , we don't have to make the situation more complicated. Right now I do believe that the only problem would be how we would deal with quantum computers and the transfer fees.