2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[fr4nkthetank]

Meh.  If China has a coal problem, maybe they should look in the mirror.  Export power generation Coal prices are up form the bottom of the pandemic but not that high either.  They hate Australia's policies on China and are engaged in economic war with them.  Probably a soft ban on any Australian coal imports I guess.  I think the coal issue is a big load of bitcoin cash.  A -15% diff dip is pretty crazy with the prices we have, even with the dip.  We shall see.  Maybe the issue is more about those chinese miners making bank and the central authority feeling the grasp of control loosening.  Kinda like the ongoing story with the tech industry.  Who knows, its a very opaque industry.  And a very opaque government. 

I like to ask the following question:  What is worth more :  The loss of revenue from shut down miners (5-10m?/day) VS the "artificial" increase in fees paid (5-8m/day?).  Maybe shutting down miners doesn't cost as much as expected...

[philipma1957]

Meh.  If China has a coal problem, maybe they should look in the mirror.  Export power generation Coal prices are up form the bottom of the pandemic but not that high either.  They hate Australia's policies on China and are engaged in economic war with them.  Probably a soft ban on any Australian coal imports I guess.  I think the coal issue is a big load of bitcoin cash.  A -15% diff dip is pretty crazy with the prices we have, even with the dip.  We shall see.  Maybe the issue is more about those chinese miners making bank and the central authority feeling the grasp of control loosening.  Kinda like the ongoing story with the tech industry.  Who knows, its a very opaque industry.  And a very opaque government. 

I like to ask the following question:  What is worth more :  The loss of revenue from shut down miners (5-10m?/day) VS the "artificial" increase in fees paid (5-8m/day?).  Maybe shutting down miners doesn't cost as much as expected...

Good question.  Since bit main cut 3 huge cloud deals and supposedly 1 of the clouds is affect more than the others.

The sacrifice of turning off gear makes the other cloud setups do better with btc.

To go deeper.  Hashnest is the affected cloud they are apologizing to customers.  So maybe just maybe they are passing some of this onto the customers and as you say the other clouds are getting better fees.

viabtc is paying

Avg. Daily Earnings 0.00000665 BTC/T (≈PPS 124.76%)


they were at 111%  before this drop.  So as a miner I am gaining on my viabtc payments

124/111 = a factor of 1.117 to one.  This means my newly mined btc is worth more like 56900 than 51000

[alh]

We are well over 12 days into the current epoch and still "behind". If the hash rate was as it was a couple of weeks ago, we would expect to be at roughly block 1760, but we are actually at 1501. My periodic looks at suggest that the "missing" hash rate is still missing for the most part. Hard to know if/when it will return. For what it's worth, cryptothis.com is projecting that the epoch will finish late Saturday or early Sunday with a difficulty decrease of about 14%.

@NotFuzzyWarm: Looks like your order for BTC at $44K isn't going to get filled soon, currently at $55,535.   

[stompix]

4 hours to go:

Current Pace:   87.3133%  (1996 / 2286.02 expected, 290.02 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.6802% and -12.6791%

so it's going to be just a ~12%, disappointing I guess, last week I thought we would see 20% but obviously not the case, plus the blocktime seems consistent so a drop then a jump by the same pace, and then it will all be on the May deliveries if those will be indeed sent to the customers or if there are customers at all.
Not going to name them, but one of the oldest in the EU is selling those s19pro for  "€13.388,- VAT excl. €16.199,- VAT incl." Not yet sold out  Any takers?

[alh]

We are now just about 25% into the current epoch. We have completed 506 blocks, and are currently 97 blocks ahead of where we would expect to be. Yes I know it's early, but it seems to me that much of the "missing hash rate" from the last epoch has now returned. I am also expecting we'll end of with an increase of at least 2% when this epoch ends. I know that there is plenty of time for things to change, but I think it very unlikely we'll see another decrease.

Last BTC price: $54,279.

-------------------------  Update from past the halfway point of the epoch ---------------------------------

After 1111 blocks, we are now 188 blocks "ahead" (better than a full day of expected production.). Obviously it's it's almost certain that we'll have an increase, and it's likely to be well above 5%.

BTC price is still good at: $57,997.

[NotATether]

Do you guys think we'll continue to get a steady price increase this epoch like we had before the dip, now that we have a below-average difficulty?

[Biffa]

Looks like we might be in for a spanking on the diff this time round 

Looks like +20% at least. 

[stompix]

Do you guys think we'll continue to get a steady price increase this epoch like we had before the dip, now that we have a below-average difficulty?

Bitcoin's price has a habit of not following things it has done previously exactly when you expect it do god knows..
All looked on track for it but that previous and quite unexpected dump again made a mess of things.

Let's have some numbers!!!!!!

Previous Difficulty:   23581981443663.85                           
Current Difficulty:   20608845737768.16                           
Next Difficulty:   between 24976732690478 and 25094727142664

Since it's obvious that the increase of maybe 20% doesn't reflect really the added hashpower I looked at the previous difficulty before the blackout, so if the estimate is accurate we're going to see a growth of between 5.91% and  6.41%, that's at maximum 6% in two months, at this rate we won't see the hashrate doubling by the end of the year.
So, happy mining everyone!!!! Including me  as I'm a new proud co-owner of 300Th/s with a bit more to come online next week!
Let's see how much I lose on this investment...

[alh]

Do you guys think we'll continue to get a steady price increase this epoch like we had before the dip, now that we have a below-average difficulty?

Looks like we are down on BTC price: $50,923 (along with other crypto currencies).

Just about 30 blocks to go, and we are well over 340 blocks "ahead". Still looking like +21.xx% increase.

[kano]

So the final was 21.53% to 25046487590083.3 (25.0T)

But if you take into consideration the last diff drop probably caused by power issues in China, then the total across the last 2 diff changes (1 month) is similar to 3% + 3% - so not very high.

[molsewid]

Do you guys think we'll continue to get a steady price increase this epoch like we had before the dip, now that we have a below-average difficulty?

I'm not sure but for now I guess we wont continue to get a steady price increase this epoch like we had before the dip. You know that we are suffering from a below-average difficulty and that's the one of the reason why we wont get that steady price. But one thing I'm sure of is everything will be okay in the future. And it's completely normal we experiencing now. Just be patience and wait for it. 

[alh]

While I thought it was unlikely, looks like @Fuzzy might well have gotten is $44K BTC order filled in the last 12 hours. Recent BTC prices is $42,487. Impossible to know how deep or long this "correction" on BTC price will last.

As usual, BTC never fails to disappoint in terms of excitement (both good and bad). 

[NotFuzzyWarm]

While I thought it was unlikely, looks like @Fuzzy might well have gotten his $44K BTC order filled in the last 12 hours

Ja, it went through for $43,500. Have rather mixed feelings about it. Nice to have gotten it and all but that is only the 2nd, maybe 3rd, time I've bought BTC so now hoping that the dip is done...

Riding the waves with trading might be fun and (possibly) allow for turning a quicker profit but I still prefer the slow and sure route of mining  

[stompix]

Let's see how much I lose on this investment...

FML, I think I'm the best contrarian indicator ever, 10 days and everything went south, just 10 days
Want to make a profit, do the opposite as this guy!
Anyhow, unless it goes below $30k with the hashrate not dropping which I find pretty unlikely is not going to hurt that much, besides I paid for them at 55k so, oh f**&&!

Latest Block:   684010  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.3510%  (587 / 642.58 expected, 55.58 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.5952% and -4.4697%

Does anybody find it strange that although the current pace is down -8.65 the maximum estimate for the drop is -8.59?
Nearly 30% drop in coin price, maybe a 10% in difficulty, seems reasonable, s9 and s11 getting killed?

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Yep. Ya can always tell when I buy BTC...  
Just like the last time, I buy on a large dip -- and it keeps on dipping   Good part is that that it will *eventually* rise again 
Down to $32k so far. That will no doubt lead to a fair bit of older gear going offline again. Question is: How much new gear is finally starting to show up to balance that loss?

[NotFuzzyWarm]

And of course after hitting a low of 30k, BTC is back to banging around 39k again. Damn -- I still have some money in my trading act and should've bought more at that low...

[stompix]

There is a god out there and he made me sleep for 4 hours, enough to miss that dump, if I would have seen it happening live probably my mouse would have died crushed in my hand before being able to do anything. Damn, 30k looks nasty, under 24$ a day..

At least there will be also a diff drop, I wonder if we drop me than when all that hashrate in China went offline

Current Pace:   86.6247%  (792 / 914.29 expected, 122.29 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.3394% and -8.8577%

It's already late May could anything of this still be related to relocating miners for the rainy season?

[NotATether]

And of course after hitting a low of 30k, BTC is back to banging around 39k again. Damn -- I still have some money in my trading act and should've bought more at that low...

We're still very far away from the ATH so you might as well spend the rest of it now while it's at 42k. 

Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.1361% and -10.2555%

Last time I checked, there are no power issues this time around, so why the large drop? Considering that we only stayed in 30-39k zone for a few hours it doesn't make much sense for miners to be shutting down their gear en masse at the 40k zone when you consider that they've been mining when the price was around 55k for most of the last two epoches.

[alh]

At roughly the halfway point of this epoch (1005 blocks mined), we are currently 181 blocks "behind" where we are expected to be (based just on the number of days). While plenty of time for things to change, cryptothis is currently projecting a decrease 0f -13.xx% to end on May 29th.

Unfortunately BTC price is sill way down at $37,479. 

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Just put in another low-ball buy order, this time using a trigger of $30k or less. Don't want to miss out again if another big dip (like Elon? ) shows up