Well the diff website makes a guess for the future and as we all know when we are at block 100 of 2016 it is a shot in the dark.
Of course at block 2000 its guess will be fairly close.
I no longer care about the exact number of the next diff.
I look at Current pace in bold below
I try to see if it fits my guess for the next jump
My guess for the next jump is +2 to +4% current pace is +2.37%.
It is in my guess zone.
So I am happy. I would be worried if we were dropping again. As that would be out of my projections.
I would be less worried if the rise was +5 to +10% as It would mean a few big farms have found a new spot more quickly than I thought they would.
]https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block: 692018 (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 102.3693% (531 / 518.71 expected, 12.29 ahead)
Previous Difficulty: 14363025673659.96
Current Difficulty: 13672594272814.14
Next Difficulty: between 13819071324707 and 13996947703433
Next Difficulty Change: between +1.0713% and +2.3723%
Previous Retarget: last Saturday at 7:32 PM (-4.8070%)
Next Retarget (earliest): July 31, 2021 at 11:45 AM (in 10d 1h 46m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest): July 31, 2021 at 3:58 PM (in 10d 5h 59m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 16h 13m 23s and 13d 20h 26m 34s
...
My larger spot for farming is using 130kwatts it is a mix of sha-256 gear and LTC/doge gear all gear is paid and it makes money split 4 ways.
40 L7 asic pull 136 kwatts
40 Eth asic pull 132 kwatts
so we could have this gear
or 40 s19pro which would pull 132kwatts
look at this from Bitmain viewpoint .
A room that is 8 foot by 20 feet burning 136kwatts could earn
10.4 ltc + 20,800 doge a day this is 5137 usd worth of coin
3.63 eth a day>>>>>>>>> this is 6534 usd worth of coin
0.03955 btc a day >>>>>> this is 1265 usd worth of cointhis is not to say I like 1 coin over another.
But bitmain makes all 3 machines I describe
they sold the s19pro to us when times were terrible for mining at 2500 usd.
Which leads me to believe
the L7 cost them under 2500 usd to build
the Eth cost them under 2500 usd to build
the s19pro. cost them under 2500 usd to build
All the hash rates above dropped
all of them are growing back.
I use the diff website to track grow back.
unfortunately I have to factor all 3 al gore rhythms
I know it pisses off people but so be it.
I feel that all 3 algorithms will gain the hash back.
I FEEL BITMAIN IS FULLY AWARE OF MY ANALYZSIS.
Not that they clock me but they have a guy or 2 like me that have drawn the same sets of numbers.
I think they do not need to know the exact diff but that they will add back gear in ratios that do not hurt their profits.
Remember they can't sell a ton of gear yet. Due to lack of chips.
so back to my point this diff chart simply gives me a trend of where to diff is headed.
It think it is all unfolding to BITMAIN'S master plan.