2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[kano]

Well anyway, after 862 blocks into this diff change, my random inaccurate history calc says currently ... +13.2% ...

[1715298298]

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[stompix]

Finally going seriously down, only 111%, and stay there!!!!  
Interestingly btc.com has lowered their estimator to (+5.91%).

As for the orders waiting to be fulfilled, just stumbled on another company with big plans, Core Scientific plans to go public with $4.3 billion!!!! And guess what their plans are

Core Scientific said in April that it bought another 112,800 units of Bitmain's newest generation of the AntMiner S19 series machines.
With that purchase, Core Scientific’s total equipment on order would amount to 188,824 units expected to be delivered throughout this year and next year. At full deployment, the hash rate on its sites will have about 18 exahashes per second of computing power.

Judging by how things are looking bitmain is the only thing that keeps difficulty down, ironically with its inability to deliver gear or with is an unwillingness to do so. I think we will be getting a better picture by the end of September or the start of October when we see more solid numbers rather than speculation,  if the gear was bought after the Chinese scare by that date it should have already arrived at their new campaign site, in my opinion, if we hit 140 EH by then we will do 180EH by June. If after this jump we stay with 2-3% growth Phil's might have got it right.

Oh, and:

Ok let's do some simple math for the worst-case scenario possible, let's reset the counter to the max possible hashrate we had, which was 17.89EH, so we work with 180EH for the sake of simplicity, let's say all of it comes back online by end of the year, I think this is a "fairly pessimistic" estimation which we all agree to.

All of that gear to mine again it is not just pessimistic is way beyond anything like that, about 140EH of gear surviving the purge, not breaking down, finding a new home where it can mine profitably even at 25T is the limit of what I find reasonable.

But of course, the price can screw with all our speculations and render them ridiculous in a matter of seconds.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Hot damn! Exchange rate is fast approaching 50k  
Currently 49.29k
Given that, rising diff be damned! still cha-ching!
Wonder how much of the rise is due to news about Coinbase buying 500M$ of BTC followed by 10% of yearly profits to hold as part of their reserves?

[philipma1957]

Well this will be a decent jump

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   696876  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   112.1470%  (1357 / 1210.02 expected, 146.98 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   14496442856349.12                            
Current Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 17236732981757 and 17462440533521
Next Difficulty Change:   between +10.8037% and +12.2547%
Previous Retarget:   August 13, 2021 at 1:42 AM  (+7.3097%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 1:18 PM  (in 4d 1h 56m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 5:11 PM  (in 4d 5h 49m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 11h 36m 23s and 12d 15h 29m 43s

9-14% seems likely. Maybe 16.5 to 18.0. getting us close to the 25 top .

Hoping for a flatter uptick next jump .

Price is floating near 49k.

A 15.5 and 49k is like

25.0 and 79k

a 17.0 and 49k is like

25.0 and 72k


So we as miners ares till better off than we were back in April when coins were at 63k and diff was near 25t

A very nice $$ run for mining.

very different than 2018 price slump and diff jump.


Lets keep rooting for scarcity in chips.

News like this is very encouraging for slow production of new mining gear.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/toyota-to-cut-september-production-by-40-nikkei-says


Some insiders think chips will be short until 2023 2nd qtr.

Which would mean a huge opportunity for anyone with gear mining for the next 19-21 months.

[kano]

So this diff change going up possibly somewhere around 11% ... 12EH (111EH -> 123EH)

I wonder who shipped 120000 100TH/s miners at the beginning of the month?

Or the more likely possibility of a large % of that being miners coming back online.
They came online before the price spike.
The diff change calc has been showing 10% or more since close to the start of this diff change.

These last 4 days of the diff change, it will be interesting to see if it gets pushed up even higher due to the price spike.

[fr4nkthetank]

A lot of big publicly traded mining corps announced big increases in capacity, maybe they are receiving shipments on the regular from bitmain. 

[philipma1957]

A lot of big publicly traded mining corps announced big increases in capacity, maybe they are receiving shipments on the regular from bitmain.  

Or they sourced the older gear that was shut off in bulk.
Hard to tell.

Chips still seem short in general.

I had to go seven stores to source an in stock smaller microwave. So supply line issues abound.

I got a 700 watt ge model at an okay price after looking for the better part of a day in Nassau county New York.

Yeah the top of the line units could be had but all the small low cost models were no where to be found.

[philipma1957]

A lot of big publicly traded mining corps announced big increases in capacity, maybe they are receiving shipments on the regular from bitmain.  

Or they sourced the older gear that was shut off in bulk.
Hard to tell.

Chips still seem short in general.

I had to go seven stores to source an in stock smaller microwave. So supply line issues abound.

I got a 700 watt ge model at an okay price after looking for the better part of a day in Nassau county New York.

Yeah the top of the line units could be had but all the small low cost models were no where to be found.

So with about a day to go a solid jump in diff.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   697370  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   113.7717%  (1851 / 1626.94 expected, 224.06 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   14496442856349.12                           
Current Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 17694644217633 and 17711064076415
Next Difficulty Change:   between +13.7473% and +13.8529%
Previous Retarget:   August 13, 2021 at 1:42 AM  (+7.3097%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:01 AM  (in 1d 0h 10m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 9:18 AM  (in 1d 0h 26m 37s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 7h 19m 41s and 12d 7h 36m 2s

13.7% or more

17.6 to 17.8 looks likely.

so 25.03/17.8 = 1.4x factor.  1.4 x 49k = 68.6 k

so for miners next jump is as if we were are 25.03 diff and price of 68.6k if you are 100% fiat guy.

I will be very interested in seeing if  the aug 25- sept 8 moves up over or under 5%

Along with the price move.

We are very much unfolding like Aug - Sept of 2017 if true man oh man there will be some very good times ahead.

[kano]

Well anyway, after 862 blocks into this diff change, my random inaccurate history calc says currently ... +13.2% ...

Slow last few hours (3 or 4 blocks per hour)
Final:
2021-08-25 14:37:44 workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=697536 delta=13.24% new=17615033039278.9 prev=15556093717702.6

(bitrawr got the range wrong again )

Edit: so that's 111EH -> 126EH = +15EH ...

[DaveF]

And just to make it more interesting, LTC dropped 4.9% yesterday and although it's still early, it looks like another 5% drop in a couple of days.
A few others are dropping a bit too.
Really starting to look like wherever the big mines have been moving to are a bit more power constrained then space constrained and they can have them all ready to go, but only a certain % running at any given time.

-Dave

[philipma1957]

Well meandering along for months at a time seems ideal for us miners.

I will hope for a more level jump this time maybe 3-6%

[stompix]

The pace after the reset was a nightmare

Latest Block:   697589  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   133.1900%  (54 / 40.54 expected, 13.46 ahead)

But fortunately went down fast enough

Latest Block:   697614  (45 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.9954%  (79 / 71.82 expected, 7.18 ahead)

I dare to hope of the same under 5% this time, price under 50k but rebounding from 47k, 54 exa from the max.

I wonder if the old gear would still run at a near break-even point during winter if we won't be seeing a few people starting to really use those things like heaters. Natural gas prices in Europe are going through the roof and they might get worse during winter, we're already close to 200% in some countries compared to last summer. Of course, the problem is that electricity prices are also going up but who knows..the return of the mining boilers and heaters

[alh]

Unfortunately after the most recent difficulty increase, BTC price has fallen to less than $47K. A couple of days ago there was brief push to just above $50K that didn't hold. I have identified one item that seems to drive BTC price. I call it EMF (not Electro Magnetic Force) which stands for "Elon Musk Factor".   

[philipma1957]

Chips may be short and thus we are not going over the top.
The last jump may have been old gear going back on line.
We are at 5.9%. still super early.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   697764  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.9010%  (229 / 216.24 expected, 12.76 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                            
Current Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                            
Next Difficulty:   between 17834459065397 and 18688062700055
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2457% and +6.0916%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:37 AM  (+13.2356%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 7, 2021 at 3:54 PM  (in 11d 17h 14m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 8, 2021 at 6:36 AM  (in 12d 7h 56m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 16m 38s and 13d 19h 59m 17s

so 5.9% early

[icopress]

[...]

philipma1957, while you're here I want to ask a question ... how do you feel about basements converted for mining? At this stage, I seriously thought about purchasing several mining machines, but faced the problem of excessive noise. The only suitable place is a wine cellar, but I ran into another problem ... high humidity and dampness. I do not know at all the specification of mining equipment for admissible humidity and have no idea where to find out about it.

The basement next to the house, at a depth of about two meters, but the electrical wiring with a separate electrical switching device and an Internet cable has not yet been installed until I solve the problem with the dampness of the room. The ventilation seems to be okay, there is a double-circuit pipe in the ceiling (I suppose there is no problem with this, since the warm air rises). I also thought to drain the cellar, but I'm not sure if this will solve the problem or not.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

The ventilation seems to be okay, there is a double-circuit pipe in the ceiling (I suppose there is no problem with this, since the warm air rises)

@icopress: Your post is off-topic and should be a new topic but for now I'll let it remain. If there is more than a few posts about it they will be deleted.

That out of the way, I doubt it will be adequate. Due to the very high heat output of miners you must have a very high airflow into and out of the room - at least around 500CFM per-miner. For all electronics, humidity must be under 90% and lower than 80% is preferred.

[icopress]

The ventilation seems to be okay, there is a double-circuit pipe in the ceiling (I suppose there is no problem with this, since the warm air rises)

@icopress: Your post is off-topic and should be a new topic but for now I'll let it remain. If there is more than a few posts about it they will be deleted. [...] That out of the way, I doubt it will be adequate. Due to the very high heat output of miners you must have a very high airflow into and out of the room - at least around 500CFM per-miner. For all electronics, humidity must be under 90% and lower than 80% is preferred.

Thanks for the answer ... I will take this into account when planning, I think that in order to measure everything, a simple Thermohygrometer will be enough for me. But ... I want to add that there are 400 replies in this thread, and at the same time I see enough replies that have not been deleted. I mean that I do not consider my post to be spam, since I asked the question of interest to me in one of the threads dedicated to mining speculation (not to mention the fact that I am skeptical about creating threads for no good reason). In addition, I did not go beyond the local rules, especially considering that my question was about what directly affects the profitability to the same extent as the change in the hash rate. I hope you understand what I mean.

Edit: local rules - no trolling, no cloud mining ads, no unicorn 500TH mining gears buy links, no off-topic (non-BTC) clickbait, etc. Such posts WILL be deleted by me! While I'm allowing a wide range of discussion here it must at least be related to things that affect Bitcoin mining difficulty such as new hardware, current events, phase of the moon, etc. While *some* discussion of alts in relation to their effect on BTC diff will be allowed crap coin discussion must be kept to a minimum. Continued hammering on alts vs BTC is right-out.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

not to mention the fact that I am skeptical about creating threads for no good reason

Actually, your post is a perfect example of one that should be a new topic - it deals with room construction concerns and ideas and there are very few - if any - threads that specifically deal with that. Most info about construction is in threads that were not created for talking about it just as you did.

Would be nice to have a thread just for construction guidelines...

edit: FYI, so far there has been no need to delete any posts in this thread as 'forks' from its intent have been reasonable and short lived. Thanks to all for that!

[icopress]

not to mention the fact that I am skeptical about creating threads for no good reason

Actually, your post is a perfect example of one that should be a new topic - it deals with room construction concerns and ideas and there are very few - if any - threads that specifically deal with that. Most info about construction is in threads that were not created for talking about it just as you did.

Would be nice to have a thread just for construction guidelines...

Thank you, I will take this into account and think about it carefully, in the context of that if I do the refurbishment of the basement, I will devote a whole thread to this with a detailed review. But in order not to deviate further from the topic ... I can only add that I will follow this thread from now on, since this is one of the few places where spammers have not yet reached, (and by the way ... nice to meet you). 

[NotFuzzyWarm]

I can only add that I will follow this thread from now on, since this is one of the few places where spammers have not yet reached, (and by the way ... nice to meet you).   

I can assure you spammers will be very quickly deleted but ja, so far none of tried here (yet).
Cheers