2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[mikeywith]

especially considering that my question was about what directly affects the profitability to the same extent as the change in the hash rate.

Unless you are planning to build a huge farm with a few EHs worth of hash rate, I don't see how it's related to difficulty. , now jokes aside, you don't need to create a new topic if you don't want to, danieleither has a similar basement setup, his farm is pretty neat if you ask me.


So back to the difficulty, the pace has slowed down from the last post phill posted two days ago, it went from being 5% faster to 2.5%, I am all convinced that the average jumps should be pretty small until next year, everything is lining up this way, if we get a few =>10% jumps then it will be hard to understand what is actually happening.

Latest Block:   698024  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.4923%  (489 / 477.11 expected, 11.89 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                            
Current Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                            
Next Difficulty:   between 17805633247338 and 18068760808083
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.0820% and +2.5758%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 4:37 PM  (+13.2356%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 8, 2021 at 8:27 AM  (in 10d 8h 18m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 8, 2021 at 1:08 PM  (in 10d 12h 59m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 49m 46s and 13d 20h 31m 1s

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   698136  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.8006%  (601 / 573.47 expected, 27.53 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                            
Current Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                            
Next Difficulty:   between 18040207691643 and 18473162781916
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.4137% and +4.8716%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 10:37 AM  (+13.2356%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 7, 2021 at 7:13 PM  (in 9d 9h 1m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 8, 2021 at 2:48 AM  (in 9d 16h 36m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 8h 36m 32s and 13d 16h 11m 28s
…

so we moved to +4.8%

about 30% in

quick math

25/18 = 1.388

1.388 x 48 = 66.666

so even a five percent diff jump in ten days keeps us ahead of spring price of 64k

[kano]

Well using the fact that variance means up and down ...

I've seen between 3.3% and 6.6% in the number of random checks I've done since after the first 250 blocks.
So assuming (incorrectly) that the hash rate wont change, that averages around 4.95% at a little over 600 blocks.

I would suspenct it will be above 5% with some more miners coming online, but who know ... we'll see what happens

[stompix]

Oh yeah, those are some nice numbers to wake up to:

Latest Block:   698501  (25 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.8295%  (966 / 948.64 expected, 17.36 ahead)

If we stay as low as under 2% this period and not experience anything out of the ordinary the next, something between 1-5%, we might start to hope that whatever was dismantle and shipped from China is already in its new facility and there is no future huge wave of old gear being put to use. That will make 3 and a half months since the ban, what might still come online will probably do in small batches ​so maybe maybe, we won't be seeing anything over 10% ever again. As new gear was probably the first to be shipped another 10% would mean now over half a million s9 coming back online or 200k s17/t3/m21, over the course of a few months totally possible, in just one period, nope, not going to happen.... I hope

Hmm, I see the price went down a bit also during the night, but I doubt some 4% swings influenced enough the revenue of any miners to shut down something.

[PrimeNumber7]

That will make 3 and a half months since the ban, what might still come online will probably do in small batches ​so maybe maybe, we won't be seeing anything over 10% ever again.

The lack of difficulty increases is in part due to the chip shortage experienced globally. Mining manufacturers are unable to ship as many miners as they might otherwise be able to due to a lack of chips.

This will take time, but as the chip shortage alleviates, and as more efficient miners are produced, the difficulty will increase.

[philipma1957]

That will make 3 and a half months since the ban, what might still come online will probably do in small batches ​so maybe maybe, we won't be seeing anything over 10% ever again.

The lack of difficulty increases is in part due to the chip shortage experienced globally. Mining manufacturers are unable to ship as many miners as they might otherwise be able to due to a lack of chips.

This will take time, but as the chip shortage alleviates, and as more efficient miners are produced, the difficulty will increase.

Yeah but not 2021 maybe late 2022 even early 2023.

So the hash build out could be delayed for as much as  20 months.

Say good supplies in March of 2023.

I would say that would be the most optimistic projection.

Maybe 30t March 3rd 2023.

If that happens miners will end up with 2-2.4 years of solid mining.

But it is an optimistic guess.

The first real clue will be the L7 model due in Nov 2021.

Yeah wrong al gore rhythm but if they make a ludicrous amount of them it would be a sign chips will be had.
If they make a small amount then chips would be scarce.

the L7 makes 200 a day on 3200 watts
the s19 makes 40 a day on 3200 watts
the e9 makes 140 a day on 3000 watts.

so if you can not find chips for the L7 whichs earns a lot more per watt than the s19 I think sha growth will stay very slow.

I apologize in advance for mentioning the other gear for other coins but the availability in nov should help us understand just what is happing chip wise.

[alh]

We are now well past the halfway point in the current epoch:

Latest Block:   698621  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.8558%  (1086 / 1076.78 expected, 9.22 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                           
Current Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 17738519753384 and 17772200468593
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7010% and +0.8922%
Previous Retarget:   August 25, 2021 at 9:37 AM  (+13.2356%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 8, 2021 at 6:46 AM  (in 6d 9h 41m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 8, 2021 at 7:22 AM  (in 6d 10h 17m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 8m 55s and 13d 21h 45m 19s

This really looking good for small increase to possibly zero change. BTC price continues to flirt with $50K but can't every really get there for more than a few minutes. I personally don't think that whatever gear was pushing the hash rate when BTC price was $64K is actually gone. I might be in transit or powered down for reason phill suggests, or it's barely profitable at the current BTC price. I am also a firm believer that when BTC price gets high enough, there will lot's more hashrate following along in short order.

[philipma1957]

Well we move along another day closer to the next jump.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
...
Latest Block:   698719  (a minute ago)


Current Pace:   101.8162%  (1184 / 1162.88 expected, 21.12 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                           
Current Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 17884594759643 and 17940955318023
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5303% and +1.8503%
Previous Retarget:   August 25, 2021 at 10:37 AM  (+13.2356%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 4:37 AM  (in 5d 16h 11m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 5:39 AM  (in 5d 17h 12m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 0m 22s and 13d 19h 1m 37s

...

The number indicate very little new gear being built and some old gear may be coming back online.

These are very good days for anyone in and set to mine.

Hoping for the same old same old for weeks  or maybe months to come.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Sweeet: BTC is still over $50k, and diff is looking good. Love it!
Now just need KanoPool to finally crack a damn block! I know we're small but it's been 404d 4h 23m since the last one... 

[philipma1957]

Mark my words 420 will do the trick  

Just under 2% with 1473 blocks in so hoping to stay at +2% and 50k.

[alh]

Wow, that was quick! BTC price has been right about $50K for a couple of days, but couldn't quite hang on. Now it has just blown through and hit $51,700. We'll see if that will hold. That will likely help to cement a +2% difficulty increase this week if it does.

[philipma1957]

Wow, that was quick! BTC price has been right about $50K for a couple of days, but couldn't quite hang on. Now it has just blown through and hit $51,700. We'll see if that will hold. That will likely help to cement a +2% difficulty increase this week if it does.

we are now close to 2.9%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   699213  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.8459%  (1678 / 1631.57 expected, 46.43 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                           
Current Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 18106035973025 and 18120644595066
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.7874% and +2.8703%
Previous Retarget:   August 25, 2021 at 10:37 AM  (+13.2356%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 1:19 AM  (in 2d 6h 46m 28s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 1:35 AM  (in 2d 7h 2m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 42m 9s and 13d 14h 57m 49s

may simply mean lack of chips but some older gear is back on line.

Since we were as high as a diff of 25.03
or hash of 172-191 eh

and we are now at 126-140 eh 17.61 diff

we certainly can get old gear coming back.

Watch the growth and the price like a hawk

[kano]

...
I would suspect it will be above 5% with some more miners coming online, but who know ... we'll see what happens

Well looks like the price drop probably caused the hash rate to drop for almost a week there also - almost half of the diff change.
However, with only 2 days to go and the price back up again, it's back up to 3.4% at the moment.
This of course would mean there's still more hash rate gains from this diff change to go into the next diff change, as long as the price stays up, since almost half of this diff change was around the lower level.
If the diff does go much higher in the next 2 days, then that follow on will also be higher.

Basically what this is suggesting is that there's a reasonable amount of borderline profit gear (that someone said doesn't exist)
that of course depends on the price to be online.

[philipma1957]

...
I would suspect it will be above 5% with some more miners coming online, but who know ... we'll see what happens

Well looks like the price drop probably caused the hash rate to drop for almost a week there also - almost half of the diff change.
However, with only 2 days to go and the price back up again, it's back up to 3.4% at the moment.
This of course would mean there's still more hash rate gains from this diff change to go into the next diff change, as long as the price stays up, since almost half of this diff change was around the lower level.
If the diff does go much higher in the next 2 days, then that follow on will also be higher.

Basically what this is suggesting is that there's a reasonable amount of borderline profit gear (that someone said doesn't exist)
that of course depends on the price to be online.

And five hours later we are over 4.2% so that is a lot more hash added.

Or some  good luck 😉

[mikeywith]

The lack of difficulty increases is in part due to the chip shortage experienced globally. Mining manufacturers are unable to ship as many miners as they might otherwise be able to due to a lack of chips.

We have gone past this discussion months ago, it's no more relevant for the time being, all that really matters now is the speed of relocating nearly 40% of the gears that were running prior to the Chinese mining ban, what the manufacturers make or don't is too small to be considered against the already used gears that can be plugged in.

[philipma1957]

Well some bespoke psu's die off. = gear loss

and a shit ton actually tons and tons and tons of gear was shut down and moved.

So say it is still 30-40eh of gear that can work.

Along with eth gear that can work

along with sha 256 gear that can work

Sha simply will be last to go back on line as it make less money per watt.

Any big farm is going to have a mix of eth/ltc/btc gear and they will deploy the most profitable back first.

I believe eth has recovered all of its lost hash rate.
I think ltc/doge is close to recovered
btc is lagging in the recovery since it make the least money per watt.

still for mining 2021 has been a very good year.

[DaveF]

...
I believe eth has recovered all of its lost hash rate.
I think ltc/doge is close to recovered
...

ETH is still down, BUT there is a lot of GPU mining that is going after other coins / algos so it's kind of tough to be sure what is what.

LTC / Doge is still down 18% to 20% off it's high back in the beginning of June.
Looks like another 5% increase again tomorrow.
So it still has a little bit to go to get back to where it was.

-Dave

[alh]

We are down to the end of the current epoch, and BTC price comes through in terms of excitement. A roughly 8.5% decline in price down to $47,539. I thought we had broken through the "resistance level of $50K", but was re-educated on the dynamics of BTC pricing and where it's headed. 

Latest Block:   699508  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.6222%  (1973 / 1885.83 expected, 87.17 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   15556093717702.55                           
Current Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 18432644947100 and 18433034363339
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6416% and +4.6438%
Previous Retarget:   August 25, 2021 at 9:37 AM  (+13.2356%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:46 PM  (in 0d 6h 51m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:47 PM  (in 0d 6h 51m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 9m 19s and 13d 9h 9m 44s

[stompix]

Well, damn, I was hoping for under 2% for a while now, at least is under 5%...
I don't see the price changing anything, not long-term, people were mining at around 20T back in May and June and the price crashed several times under 30k, so I doubt anyone that would have waited months for gear, barely managed to plug it online in a new facility would cancel the plans for a drop that might be erased by tomorrow.

Don't know if they use the fees in this chart but even without it still shows a good picture of the situation:



from how things look we have only one way, up!

Oh, and about the chips and new miners.
S19j Pro for $11k, 3 days shipping, directly from bitmain, still not sold out!

[philipma1957]

Well, damn, I was hoping for under 2% for a while now, at least is under 5%...
I don't see the price changing anything, not long-term, people were mining at around 20T back in May and June and the price crashed several times under 30k, so I doubt anyone that would have waited months for gear, barely managed to plug it online in a new facility would cancel the plans for a drop that might be erased by tomorrow.

Don't know if they use the fees in this chart but even without it still shows a good picture of the situation:



from how things look we have only one way, up!

Oh, and about the chips and new miners.
S19j Pro for $11k, 3 days shipping, directly from bitmain, still not sold out!

110 x 30cents is 33 a day very over priced even with free power.

should be 6600 to 7700.

never mind the import fees.

2011 made and 4.4%

price is down to 46.6k