2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[philipma1957]

@Phil
Is Spondoolies really coming back to btc miner market,
or are you only speculating?
I saw their Dash miner year or few ago,
but I have not seen a new btc miner after SP20.

Speculation as we are in the speculation section.

While I have had  a good relationship with Guy Corem I have zero knowledge that they will do it.

[kano]

I presume you are referring to this:
https://blockstream.com/2021/08/24/en-blockstream-mining-builds-momentum-with-spondoolies-acquisition/

Odd though with this back in 2016 when spondoolies went bankrupt ...
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-mining-developer-spondoolies-shuts/

I'm pretty sure I remember the spondoolies guys going to work for Bitmain though ... but can't find that forum post where someone spotted that in a sig and asked them about that ...

[philipma1957]

I presume you are referring to this:
https://blockstream.com/2021/08/24/en-blockstream-mining-builds-momentum-with-spondoolies-acquisition/

Odd though with this back in 2016 when spondoolies went bankrupt ...
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-mining-developer-spondoolies-shuts/

I'm pretty sure I remember the spondoolies guys going to work for Bitmain though ... but can't find that forum post where someone spotted that in a sig and asked them about that ...

well they made a decent miner. sp10 or sp20

one of them was pretty good ran about 800gh with a downclock and was pretty much bulletproof if you ran it at 800gh vs top speed of 1200/1300 gh.

I liked that piece of gear.

avalon had a nice model in the 1tb range that was very good run at 700gb.

[alh]

My only Spondoolies experience was with the SP20. As Phil said it was a very solid piece of gear. It was almost infinitely adjustable in terms of hash rate between it's limits. The 800GH figure was great, but 1000GH was equally solid and more efficient than anything higher. The fan speed (aka sound) also moderated quite well with lower speed (meaning quieter). My subsequent Avalon miners really didn't have that kind of adjustability, and the fan speed never got as quiet.  

It's not obvious that Bitcoin mining has matured enough that that the "data center rack miner"  concept is viable long term. The only thing that's making recent gear continue to be useful is constrained supply of new chips. Since an ASIC miner is strictly a machine for converting electricity to money (aka BTC), it doesn't quite fit the model of what a data center does. At a very gross level yes, but not at the rack level, and not the overall purpose. Maybe some day (IMHO).

[kano]

I presume you are referring to this:
https://blockstream.com/2021/08/24/en-blockstream-mining-builds-momentum-with-spondoolies-acquisition/

Odd though with this back in 2016 when spondoolies went bankrupt ...
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-mining-developer-spondoolies-shuts/

I'm pretty sure I remember the spondoolies guys going to work for Bitmain though ... but can't find that forum post where someone spotted that in a sig and asked them about that ...

well they made a decent miner. sp10 or sp20
...

Yeah they wanted to send me an SP20 for 'help' with their development.
I used it as a prize on the pool and got them to send it to the winner.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg10121938#msg10121938

[philipma1957]

I presume you are referring to this:
https://blockstream.com/2021/08/24/en-blockstream-mining-builds-momentum-with-spondoolies-acquisition/

Odd though with this back in 2016 when spondoolies went bankrupt ...
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-mining-developer-spondoolies-shuts/

I'm pretty sure I remember the spondoolies guys going to work for Bitmain though ... but can't find that forum post where someone spotted that in a sig and asked them about that ...

well they made a decent miner. sp10 or sp20
...

Yeah they wanted to send me an SP20 for 'help' with their development.
I used it as a prize on the pool and got them to send it to the winner.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg10121938#msg10121938

Yeah I remember that give away.


   The biggest problem they (spondoolies) did was go head to head with bitmain against the s-5 and they lost the price war.

No one has really beaten Bitmain in a price war but price wars for cheap gear does not happen much any more.



Back to the present:
well at least the diff is -1.4%. and price went back up a bit.

Sooner or later sideways price and stable low diff will end so mine them and stack them while you can.

[stompix]

Back to the present:
well at least the diff is -1.4%. and price went back up a bit.

And now it's completely reverse, 13th is not a lucky day, difficulty entered positive territory

Current Pace:   100.6234%  (782 / 777.16 expected, 4.84 ahead)

and the price dipped again below 45k, 44630 right now on Coinbase.
At least if those would keep going like this for a while.

I doubt any newbie will come to mining in the next period, electricity rates are going nuts in Europe right now, I'm on a fixed rate and under a special plan so I'm not going to see any of those changes till next year but some around me have been hit with 30 to nearly 80% increase, we might end with 25eurocents after tax for residential use.

Honestly, these numbers are larger than what I thought would be, but still, they are not even close to owning half of the hashrate, I still believe the vast majority of hashrate is owned by other small companies and individuals, with many of them who have no clue about what they are doing and will be eaten by these large guys pretty soon.

I was surprised by the numbers, (still not finished that list yet) in both way, I would have expected fewer companies with around 1 exa and for those more hashrate, not such a distribution with no real major player right now, not considering plans that might not materialize. I'm really curious if we would be able to gather all the orders those have put for miners if we hit 50 exa in total.

That aside I'm starting to think a more than 5-10% rise over 200 exa at this price level will be close to impossible.

[philipma1957]

Back to the present:
well at least the diff is -1.4%. and price went back up a bit.

And now it's completely reverse, 13th is not a lucky day, difficulty entered positive territory

Current Pace:   100.6234%  (782 / 777.16 expected, 4.84 ahead)

and the price dipped again below 45k, 44630 right now on Coinbase.
At least if those would keep going like this for a while.

I doubt any newbie will come to mining in the next period, electricity rates are going nuts in Europe right now, I'm on a fixed rate and under a special plan so I'm not going to see any of those changes till next year but some around me have been hit with 30 to nearly 80% increase, we might end with 25eurocents after tax for residential use.

Honestly, these numbers are larger than what I thought would be, but still, they are not even close to owning half of the hashrate, I still believe the vast majority of hashrate is owned by other small companies and individuals, with many of them who have no clue about what they are doing and will be eaten by these large guys pretty soon.

I was surprised by the numbers, (still not finished that list yet) in both way, I would have expected fewer companies with around 1 exa and for those more hashrate, not such a distribution with no real major player right now, not considering plans that might not materialize. I'm really curious if we would be able to gather all the orders those have put for miners if we hit 50 exa in total.

That aside I'm starting to think a more than 5-10% rise over 200 exa at this price level will be close to impossible.

So does price get pushed up to correct levels? Or do we crash?

bitmain has the s19j listed at $10,000 https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020210913172218249A8726L7205C3

to buy it for USA add 3000 import duty

so 13000

100 th is about 31 usd a day with free power.

13,000/31= 420 (rounded it from 419.35 looks better) and you must be smoking it to think you should buy at this price.

Now my car payment is 420 maybe it is a sign to run out and buy the gear.

My problem with the pricing is we grabbed one early say sep or august  2020 for about $3000.00 tax and shipping including and it was a 110th pro.

My fear to buy a 13000 machine that was lower than 3000 is realistic .

BTW our power is 1/2 the coins.  So our roi is 840 days.


The BTC sha gear pricing has pushed me to buy a lot more gear in other algorithms.

[kano]

Back to the present:
well at least the diff is -1.4%. and price went back up a bit.

And now it's completely reverse, 13th is not a lucky day, difficulty entered positive territory
...

Well that's the normal 'expected' result after china's cleanup finished - the only question is really how much hash rate is dependent upon price and caused the drop up to now in this diff change.
New miners will always be coming online to increase the hash rate.
Though at the moment it's current back just below zero (-0.33%)

[stompix]

So, everything positive, price back at 46.6, hashrate at 102% pace, not the best but still better than it could have been

As for those mining companies, damn those numbers are a pain in the ass to be gathered from their press release, seems like everyone wants to ignore the fact that their current hashrate is insignificant and that their great plans are for late 2022. I've ignored companies with a few thousand miners and also ones that are more than shady, not that I would trust the ones on the list either but at least even the dubious ones have a joint press release with bitmain.
I might still dig for them but for now, this is it for public companies



In case you're wondering, the numbers are 12, 20 (end 2021), and 75 exa (end 2022), current hashrate ignores Core as I can't find anything.
Of course, some might deploy in April 2022 some in May and October but I've kept it simple.

My fear to buy a 13000 machine that was lower than 3000 is realistic .

Spending 100$ per Th/s which earns 30 cents before power costs would be out of the question for me.
If you have secured 2-3 cents power and you know your provider won't raise prices in the next year, then, it's a gamble.

[alh]

We are now well past the halfway point in the current epoch.

Latest Block:   700580  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.5631%  (1029 / 1003.28 expected, 25.72 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                           
Current Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                           
Next Difficulty:   between 18807809401546 and 18935090526769
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1322% and +2.8234%
Previous Retarget:   September 7, 2021 at 7:05 PM  (+4.5423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 21, 2021 at 10:41 AM  (in 6d 16h 23m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 21, 2021 at 12:42 PM  (in 6d 18h 24m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 36m 11s and 13d 17h 36m 57s

BTC price: $47,035.

Looks to me like it's going to be an increase, though not be large (i.s. ~2% ).

[philipma1957]

We are now well past the halfway point in the current epoch.

Latest Block:   700580  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.5631%  (1029 / 1003.28 expected, 25.72 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                           
Current Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                           
Next Difficulty:   between 18807809401546 and 18935090526769
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1322% and +2.8234%
Previous Retarget:   September 7, 2021 at 7:05 PM  (+4.5423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 21, 2021 at 10:41 AM  (in 6d 16h 23m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 21, 2021 at 12:42 PM  (in 6d 18h 24m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 36m 11s and 13d 17h 36m 57s

BTC price: $47,035.

Looks to me like it's going to be an increase, though not be large (i.s. ~2% ).

Nah we go to 3-4% and price drifts to 49-51k

but what do I know not much.

[philipma1957]

So far my guess of +3-4 is off as is my price guess of 49-51k

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   700951  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.7084%  (1400 / 1390.15 expected, 9.85 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                           
Current Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                           
Next Difficulty:   between 18564079236890 and 18579551981591
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.8087% and +0.8927%
Previous Retarget:   September 7, 2021 at 8:05 PM  (+4.5423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 5:43 PM  (in 4d 5h 56m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 5:56 PM  (in 4d 6h 9m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 38m 11s and 13d 21h 51m 26s

30% left

[philipma1957]

Looks like 3-4% is on track for tues .

prices are a bit low 43.7k

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

…
Latest Block:   701546  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.0725%  (1995 / 1935.53 expected, 59.47 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                            
Current Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                            
Next Difficulty:   between 19005844750976 and 19005910908009
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.2076% and +3.2080%
Previous Retarget:   September 7, 2021 at 8:05 PM  (+4.5423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 10:04 AM  (in 0d 3h 23m 44s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 10:04 AM  (in 0d 3h 23m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 59m 2s and 13d 13h 59m 6s

about 21-22 to go and still + 3-4%

would like to see bigger price then 43k

the 43k price should keep next jump lower then 3-4%

maybe 1-2

oh bitmain was pushing the s19j at 10000

that dropped to 9300

based on us buyer add the import duty of 2700 you are at 12000

it makes 29 a day so with free power it takes

12000/29= 410 days to roi

simply too much money 💰

price needs to be 7k

that becomes 9100

with free power

9100/29= 313 days

my power is ½ the coins so it would take me  616 days to pay it off. if they offer it at 7k and tax is 2100 total 9100

[kano]

Hmm, no one posted it 11 hours ago, so ...
2021-09-21 14:12+00 workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=701568 delta=3.16% new=18997641161759.0 prev=18415156832118.2

18.4T -> 19.0T

[philipma1957]

only 12% in we are at -3.78%

Encouraging number if we drift upwards maybe we get to +1 to +3 at worse
Still seems to show lack of a lot of new chips and or new gear coming online.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   701832  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.2184%  (265 / 275.41 expected, 10.41 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                            
Current Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                            
Next Difficulty:   between 18426198394334 and 18854025591084
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.0080% and -0.7560%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 10:12 AM  (+3.1631%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 5, 2021 at 1:27 PM  (in 12d 5h 20m 27s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 5, 2021 at 11:24 PM  (in 12d 15h 18m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 14m 36s and 14d 13h 12m 19s
 

an s19 at 100th earns $29.61 and burns $8.16 a day or plus $21.35 a day.

an s9 at 12th  earns $3.55 and burns $2.40 a day or plus $1.15.

both numbers are based on 10 cent power.

So s9 gear still works for some home owners.

looking at ebay I see an s9 with psu at 500 or so

and a some s19s around 11-12k

so 21.35/1.15 =18.56

18.56 x 500 = 9280   which means the s19 prices are not that high compared to the s9 if

you are are 10 cent power.

you pay that extra per hash because the s19 will earn well with profits dropping .

So 2021 has been the year of the miner

any established miner keeps turning profits. month after month.

mine on.

[stompix]

only 12% in we are at -3.78%

short lived euphoria

Current Pace:   98.4696%  (292 / 296.54 expected, 4.54 behind)

pace went from 96.2 to 98.4
I'm sure it's just a coincidence but it's the third time in 4 adjustments that we see a significant drop right at the start.

Now, even with a 2% growth at the end, the numbers are still looking better than when the last dump happened, down below 40k is nearly the same thing as 3 periods of 3%, not that I'm happy with any of those but combined are going to hurt a lot of people, probably the end of mining at overpriced western world residential rates with anything below s15.

So s9 gear still works for some home owners.
looking at ebay I see an s9 with psu at 500 or so

it still works if you have the gear, if you plan on buying this for 500 at 10 cents .....at least you can heat the house, 5 degrees (celsius) last weekend here.

[mikeywith]

pace went from 96.2 to 98.4
I'm sure it's just a coincidence but it's the third time in 4 adjustments that we see a significant drop right at the start.

Can't speak about the other 3 epochs, but for this one, I tend to believe that the 10% price increase had a major effect on this, 2 days ago when the price was at 39k-40k the pace was well before 96 (I believe it was at 91) and then it started rising as the price kept moving up, which means there is a good possibility that many miners are mining at the edge of being profitable.

The other possible scenario which is more likely would be the automated overclocking/underclocking, with all the available tools today, miners can set their miners to mine at say 70w/th when prices is above x, and then drop to 50w/th when the price is below x (the latter will result in a less hash rate), the over/underclocking effect is real, personally, I have just about 15% of my total hashrate setting on the sidelines waiting for mid-October, those will come online with exactly 3 clicks.

[philipma1957]

pace went from 96.2 to 98.4
I'm sure it's just a coincidence but it's the third time in 4 adjustments that we see a significant drop right at the start.

Can't speak about the other 3 epochs, but for this one, I tend to believe that the 10% price increase had a major effect on this, 2 days ago when the price was at 39k-40k the pace was well before 96 (I believe it was at 91) and then it started rising as the price kept moving up, which means there is a good possibility that many miners are mining at the edge of being profitable.

The other possible scenario which is more likely would be the automated overclocking/underclocking, with all the available tools today, miners can set their miners to mine at say 70w/th when prices is above x, and then drop to 50w/th when the price is below x (the latter will result in a less hash rate), the over/underclocking effect is real, personally, I have just about 15% of my total hashrate setting on the sidelines waiting for mid-October, those will come online with exactly 3 clicks.

yes my s17 do 40th at 1000 watts or 53th at 2000 watts a few clicks and they move.

I do move them up and down more for heating issues than anything else but they shift.

[mikeywith]

yes my s17 do 40th at 1000 watts or 53th at 2000 watts a few clicks and they move.

I do move them up and down more for heating issues than anything else but they shift.

Same here, since (as you are probably already aware) that power rate isn't a problem for me, I only play with those numbers for cooling purposes, but if I had to pay a large bill then making my gears 20-30% more effienct when prices are just not right - will most certainly be something that I do on daily bases (automatically), also add to that the fact that smart mining pools like Viabtc give you the option to convert your payouts to a stable coin automatically, so this combined with the auto-switching becomes a great tool for managing your gears this way.

An S17+ can do 80th at 3160w (40w/th) and it can do 52th at 1700w (32w/th), the effienct profile is 20% more effienct, while the beast mode gives you 50% more hashrate, if we assume that 20-30% of mining gears are switching between similar profiles, then it won't be surprising to see huge immediate shifts in hashrate as the price moves up/down