2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[philipma1957]

When I didn't own one hash, remember how enthusiastic I was then, the hashrate will reach 300, 400 exa, who cared?!
I'm turning bearish and bullish keeping my bear form, prom panda to brown, there is a slight difference but there is one

The pressure of being a miner is a lot harder to endure compared to just holding some bitcoin in a cold wallet, even for folks like me who don't care about the power rate, I always have to worry about hash boards dying, the farm catching fire or anything else that can go wrong at any given second.

Mining however is a lot more fun, and in days like this when bitcoin isn't making any price gains, mining outperforms holding, it's just how it always been.

With that said, I am more bearish than bullish regarding the mining industry as a whole, I believe the past couple of months were the best we will ever get, the average profitability of 2022 will be a lot less than 2021, I think we got to the top of the mountain and going forward will only be a decline in profitability.

jeese you fuzzy bear fans. 2022 will make 2021 look mediocre.

for every 1 you made in 2021 you will make 3 or 4 in 2022

[1714853401]

1714853401

[1714853401]

1714853401

[1714853401]

1714853401

[mikeywith]

jeese you fuzzy bear fans. 2022 will make 2021 look mediocre.

for every 1 you made in 2021 you will make 3 or 4 in 2022

Gave you some merit for the positive energy. 

I admit that I am often bearish than not, I am surprised that you are not, you see people start to take less risk as they grow older because they have so much to lose and a little to earn, and then making up for any potential loss is a lot harder for older people.

But this isn't how I always have been, I was more bullish than most bullish people, I have taken a tremendous amount of risk with BTC, it did payout in the end, I am years ahead financially compared to when I started investing in crypto, but everything changed recently due to family-related stuff, I feel like I have to train myself to be more bearish than bullish and to take less risk than I did before for the sake of my family, sometimes, I wish I was just 5 years younger.

I do envy your bullishness nonetheless.

[kano]

Meanwhile 10% price gain in the last 24 hours ... so lets see what happens to the current +1.87% value 3/4 of the way through the diff change.

It was round 2% at the start of the price jump, so you 'might' expect it to continue to rise a little more ... but who knows.

[philipma1957]

and in under 24 hours we jump to +4%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...

Latest Block:   703237  (a few seconds ago)


Current Pace:   104.5365%  (1670 / 1597.53 expected, 72.47 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                            
Current Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                            
Next Difficulty:   between 19859434399713 and 19886813832278
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.5363% and +4.6804%
Previous Retarget:   September 21, 2021 at 10:12 AM  (+3.1631%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 7:37 PM  (in 2d 7h 9m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 8:03 PM  (in 2d 7h 35m 37s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 25m 7s and 13d 9h 50m 54s

Fits  with turn all the s17's up to turbo along with put the s9's back on line

and crank the s19s up

[mikeywith]

and in under 24 hours we jump to +4%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...
Current Pace:   104.5365%  (1670 / 1597.53 expected, 72.47 ahead)

This can't be yet another coincidence, can it? I know some people disagree with the theory that many people are at the edge of being profitable and these small price movements do trigger some serious hashrate action both to the up and downside, I explained to stompix why do I think things now are way different than before since the migrated hashrate is now operating in completely different conditions, the Chinese can mine with 25T diff and below 30k bitcoin, the majority of the rest of world simply.. can't.

The above fact is a net positive for us miners, however, things like Volcanode might change the whole theory above, the cheaper forms of energy other miners get their hands on, the less profit to the rest of the miners.

[stompix]

The above fact is a net positive for us miners, however, things like Volcanode might change the whole theory above, the cheaper forms of energy other miners get their hands on, the less profit to the rest of the miners.

I wound't be concerned about that, it's just a publicity stunt.
The former director of the electric company running that plant was quoted for a $100 Mwh costs so, no danger there.

This can't be yet another coincidence, can it? I know some people disagree with the theory that many people are at the edge of being profitable and these small price movements do trigger some serious hashrate action both to the up and downside, I explained to stompix why do I think things now are way different than before since the migrated hashrate is now operating in completely different conditions, the Chinese can mine with 25T diff and below 30k bitcoin, the majority of the rest of world simply.. can't.

Or....or...something else happened!  

But seriously this jump in the last days is a bit crazy, those ar the before and after numbers:

Current Pace:   100.9908%  (1210 / 1198.13 expected, 11.87 ahead)
Current Pace:   104.5365%  (1670 / 1597.53 expected, 72.47 ahead)

So between these, we had 460/399, that's 60 ahead and a 15% increase, far outpacing the price.
In the last 24 hours, 346 blocks , that's 20% over the normal.

[kano]

They are random numbers don't forget ...

[DaveF]

...
This can't be yet another coincidence, can it? I know some people disagree with the theory that many people are at the edge of being profitable and these small price movements do trigger some serious hashrate action both to the up and downside, I explained to stompix why do I think things now are way different than before since the migrated hashrate is now operating in completely different conditions, the Chinese can mine with 25T diff and below 30k bitcoin, the majority of the rest of world simply.. can't.

I know I have said it before in this thread, but I still think it's not *just* that. I think a lot of places that miners moved to, are at least for now power constrained and miners have to make a choice.

They used to have enough power to run all their miners. Now they do not, so until they can get more power to some locations they have to pick and choose which miners are powered. Back of the envelope numbers I still think it's more profitable for me to run the L3+ units then the S17 units.


-Dave

[stompix]

They are random numbers don't forget ...

Of course, it could be just a coincidence and the pace could drop by the same margin next two days, but..if in the last 48 you have 346, right now in the last 24h you have 172 and in the next 24,48 the pace keeps going it won't be a matter of luck but rather of weighted dice.

One more thing, Foundry went over the last periods from  8.9% 1 Month, 9.5% 1 Week, 10,4% 3Days and 12,8% last 24h.

So it might be a combination of factors, luck, switching efficiency on miners, somebody getting a lot of gear, and Iran lifting the ban.

[alh]

Right now it's looking like a solid +4% increase is likely.

Latest Block:   703411  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.3852%  (1844 / 1766.53 expected, 77.47 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                           
Current Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                           
Next Difficulty:   between 19848883738387 and 19855407245135
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.4808% and +4.5151%
Previous Retarget:   September 21, 2021 at 9:12 AM  (+3.1631%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:05 PM  (in 1d 3h 27m 44s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:11 PM  (in 1d 3h 33m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 53m 5s and 13d 9h 59m 15s

BTC price is better than recently at $48,631.

[PrimeNumber7]

But seriously this jump in the last days is a bit crazy, those ar the before and after numbers:

Current Pace:   100.9908%  (1210 / 1198.13 expected, 11.87 ahead)
Current Pace:   104.5365%  (1670 / 1597.53 expected, 72.47 ahead)

So between these, we had 460/399, that's 60 ahead and a 15% increase, far outpacing the price.
In the last 24 hours, 346 blocks , that's 20% over the normal.

They are random numbers don't forget ...

They are random numbers don't forget ...

Of course, it could be just a coincidence and the pace could drop by the same margin next two days, but..if in the last 48 you have 346, right now in the last 24h you have 172 and in the next 24,48 the pace keeps going it won't be a matter of luck but rather of weighted dice.

In order to be 95% sure you are within 5% of the actual number, you need a sample size of 324. so the current increase in hashrate as of block 1210 into the difficulty period could be as much as ~6%, and the hashrate from during blocks 1211 to 1671 of the current difficulty period could be as little as 110% of the hashrate at the end of the previous difficulty period.

There was definitely additional equipment brought online.

[kano]

They are random numbers don't forget ...

But the point also is that the actual hash rate is also random.
It's not a consistent X Exahash to give an expected average extra N% block.

X itself is also changing all the time, but that change is being applied to this diff change history so far.
i.e. how much X change is required to change the new calculated diff value later in the diff change.

e.g. if we were 3/4 of the way through the diff change with a value of 102% what change would be required to push it up to 104% in 1/7 of the diff change
So just doing that simple calc: if the mean of (3/4) 1512 events is 1.02, and you want the mean of (3/4+1/7) 1800 to be 1.04
the increase over the extra 1/7 would have to be ... (1.04 * 1800 - 1.02 * 1512) / 288 = 1.145
i.e. the last 1/7 (288 blocks) would have to have been a 14.5% increase.

But we also know that even 288 blocks is not a very accurate representation of the hash rate, and a hash rate increase of 14.5% is around 20EH, so the assumption would more likely to be that it was mostly random variance.

If instead that 14.5% increase was actual, and it stays there for the rest of the diff change, the final value would be ...
(1512 * 1.02 + 504 * 1.145)  / 2016 = 1.05%

... and of course if that 14.5% continues through the next diff change, that would mean a base increase in the next diff change of at least 9% (1.145/1.05)

[stompix]

And surprise, indeed a surprise at least for me, if we look right now at the numbers, the jump looks like has been caused by luck and everything else was a coincidence.

Current Pace:   100.9908%  (1210 / 1198.13 expected, 11.87 ahead)
Current Pace:   104.5365%  (1670 / 1597.53 expected, 72.47 ahead)

26 hours later

Current Pace:   103.9489%  (1941 / 1867.26 expected, 73.74 ahead)

So over the last day, the pace has come back to the normal difficulty and in the exact 24 hours, it has gone down to 139 blocks.

I know this is going to come and bite me ferociously in the a*** next day but if indeed the 115% pace for the previous 2-3 days was caused by miners and not luck it makes no sense for them to turn everything back off at >$47.5k.
Less than 13 hours left so at this point numbers won't be telling that much, the 4-5 days of the next epoch if the price remains unchanged will clear things up.

I won't deny the fact that a price increase will definitely make some miners turning their gear to different setups but I doubt that a jump of 10% in price would trigger an increase of 15-20% in hash rate from that alone. Combined with something else, of course, but 30 exa out of low/high settings, nope!

[philipma1957]

And surprise, indeed a surprise at least for me, if we look right now at the numbers, the jump looks like has been caused by luck and everything else was a coincidence.

Current Pace:   100.9908%  (1210 / 1198.13 expected, 11.87 ahead)
Current Pace:   104.5365%  (1670 / 1597.53 expected, 72.47 ahead)

26 hours later

Current Pace:   103.9489%  (1941 / 1867.26 expected, 73.74 ahead)

So over the last day, the pace has come back to the normal difficulty and in the exact 24 hours, it has gone down to 139 blocks.

I know this is going to come and bite me ferociously in the a*** next day but if indeed the 115% pace for the previous 2-3 days was caused by miners and not luck it makes no sense for them to turn everything back off at >$47.5k.
Less than 13 hours left so at this point numbers won't be telling that much, the 4-5 days of the next epoch if the price remains unchanged will clear things up.

I won't deny the fact that a price increase will definitely make some miners turning their gear to different setups but I doubt that a jump of 10% in price would trigger an increase of 15-20% in hash rate from that alone. Combined with something else, of course, but 30 exa out of low/high settings, nope!

It does make sense if they are really big and can alter from 50 to 60 th on a lot of s17's

They can control the diff in such a way that it does not run away.  if you mine hard from day 4 to day 13 then back off on day 14

you get 14 new days at say 18.9 vs 19.2

and uou mine hard next time for days 3-13 that is 11 days of harder mining at a low diff.

all possible if you have excess E9 s17 or s19 and L7 gear.

you simply juggle the gear from best paying per watt day to day.

[kano]

...
... and of course if that 14.5% continues through the next diff change, that would mean a base increase in the next diff change of at least 9% (1.145/1.05)

So ... 4.7%
[2021-10-04 23:27:39.616+00] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=703584 delta=4.71% new=19893045048575.1 prev=18997641161759.0

We'll see in 4 or 5 days if that continues and thus means 9%+ for the next diff change ...

Edit: and price seems to be staying up and continuing up a little more so far also ...

[mikeywith]

I won't deny the fact that a price increase will definitely make some miners turning their gear to different setups but I doubt that a jump of 10% in price would trigger an increase of 15-20% in hash rate from that alone. Combined with something else, of course, but 30 exa out of low/high settings, nope!

Of course, it can't be "that alone", we know gears are moving from China to other places, we also know new gears are being delivered every day, these two factors will ensure that difficulty keeps moving up almost completely ignoring the price since most of these new gears are very effienct.

I recently heard some rumors of some Chinese mining farms coming back to business after moving from "public and known" mining farms to "hidden" farms, someone said some serious hashrate was brought back to life IN china the past couple of days, while I have no way to confirm or deny that, I tend to believe that a part of this story is true.

Anyway, the path to a new difficulty ATH is pretty clear, things can only get worse in terms of earnings in BTC, hopefully, the price will keep up with it at least for Q1 of 2022, which will mean miners had a whole year of crazy mining gains.

[philipma1957]

I won't deny the fact that a price increase will definitely make some miners turning their gear to different setups but I doubt that a jump of 10% in price would trigger an increase of 15-20% in hash rate from that alone. Combined with something else, of course, but 30 exa out of low/high settings, nope!

Of course, it can't be "that alone", we know gears are moving from China to other places, we also know new gears are being delivered every day, these two factors will ensure that difficulty keeps moving up almost completely ignoring the price since most of these new gears are very effienct.

I recently heard some rumors of some Chinese mining farms coming back to business after moving from "public and known" mining farms to "hidden" farms, someone said some serious hashrate was brought back to life IN china the past couple of days, while I have no way to confirm or deny that, I tend to believe that a part of this story is true.

Anyway, the path to a new difficulty ATH is pretty clear, things can only get worse in terms of earnings in BTC, hopefully, the price will keep up with it at least for Q1 of 2022, which will mean miners had a whole year of crazy mining gains.

Stack it while you can.

If they are sneak mining ⛏ I hope they get caught.

[mikeywith]

If they are sneak mining ⛏ I hope they get caught.

They are sneak mining.. but why hope they get cought? If the motive is to obey the government rules then all it takes to kill bitcoin would be a similar ban in the U.S and a few more countries.

I am not saying people should break the laws, but I don't think I can hope for those Chinese miners to get caught, many of those folks are victims; the government gave them assurance that they can mine bitcoin and then came up with new rules.

If anything those who stopped mining were the ones operating with a lisence and paying thier bills, the folks who steal power are probably still mining in the dark.  

[stompix]

They are sneak mining.. but why hope they get cought?

I don't know why philipma1957 said that but from my point of view, well, it's not tooo nice but you know, fewer miners, moar coins, but I wouldn't wish that for poeple in China. In the US, Canada, let's say western Europe, yeah, find them and hit them with a  fine, the ones in China are risking way more, and I wouldn't want to know what will happen to some guy that gets caught and the CCP wants to make an example out of the situation.

I recently heard some rumors of some Chinese mining farms coming back to business after moving from "public and known" mining farms to "hidden" farms, someone said some serious hashrate was brought back to life IN china the past couple of days, while I have no way to confirm or deny that, I tend to believe that a part of this story is true.

If you heard rumors then the Chinese authorities already know the blood type and eyesight test results of the ones doing this already.
Unless it's a special situation approved by a regional government which as far as I understand does have a bit of power when it comes to local rules I don't see it happening. The other possibility would be some mining to be done in remote areas in Sichuan near dams that are still not connected to the grid but the rainy season is almost over and I doubt that many are still not connected. There is a huge energy shortage in China, the party is trying everything to keep prices down and avoid blackouts, I don't think one could do such a thing with some complicity from authorities.

And bitmain still isn't sold out, I would have expected them to end it already this batch when the price touched 50k, aren't poeple buying gear anymore?  Or do they have a ton of those?

Not even going to comment on what the diff looks like now, it's all over the place!

[philipma1957]

guys if 10eh is on the sneak and gets crushed when it is found.  that is 10eh I do not compete with.



I think anyone that believes BTC is underground
anti-fiat
anti-rich
anti-government should look at this commercial


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtvjbmoDx-I

apple is shown to be the common man's savior

What is apple now?
1984-2021



So this is  BTC
2009 - 2046

btc is shown to be the common man's savior in 2046 well I will be 89 so who cares?

 but The parallels are plain to see.

BTC will become the 'man' much like apple did