2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[kano]

Meanwhile the price is working it's way back up and the diff change is still staying above 0%

2.7% and closing in on half way.

I was 'speculating' about the last 5 months since the start of the diff drop some time in the 2 weeks after the 13th of June.
25T was around 179 EH and the bottom out was 13.7T or around 98EH on the 18th of July.

So since the 18th of July, over the past 'only' 4 months the network has added back 64EH to get to 162EH

So either someone built 64EH of miners over 4 months, or some (large?) percentage of those miners are simply just miners switched off, coming back online.

So since we are only talking 4 months, that's effectively 16EH of miners per month.
If that was 100TH/s miners, that would be 160,000 miners, or 40,000 miners a week.

So I wonder, with the 'so called' chip shortages, and shipping delays, and 'covid' everything else excuses, and bitmain asking people to buy miners a year in advance, could every manufacturer have built 640,000 total 100TH/s miners over the past 4 months?

I suspect the obvious answer is no, but the question is how much has been built? ... and thus how much of the lost 80EH has come back online in 4 months.
Numbers 'supposedly' shipped wont really help either, since e.g. both Bitmain and Canaan build miners for themselves that they don't ship.

So I'd have to 'speculate' that at least half of that 64EH coming on line would be miners that were switched off.
i.e. at least 32EH of miners moved and back online in 4 months ... and that low number would mean 320,000 new 100TH/s miners built in the last 4 months with all the chip shortages, and delays and ... and ... and ...

Hmm ...

[btc2marspro]

I 'speculate' that at least 15EH coming on line would be miners that were switched off.
i.e. at least 15EH of miners moved and back online in 4 months.  I speculated hash rate be back to near 'normal' by end of the year and it is on track

so called chip shortage, the traditional mamos shops known to carry near 0 inhouse inventory who did not strategically preorder them from the foundry are facing difficult time with chips and those are bigger nm chips and not 5nm and 7nm. I think the greedy-smart crypto chip designers probably had a lot of wafer and components started to preload pre-covid shock era in early 2020.  World's electrical infra structure is very limited outside of china to power on older equipment to reach today's high hash rate but rather the majority is new generation equipment and it is causing this rapid hash rate clime.

This year, kicking out older generation equipment more so as well as kicking out old-day super cheap electricity fee customers throughout the year and new equipment was replacing them. I 'speculate' more displaced equipment outside china also to exist in larger volume.

I speculate many expensive new equipment will break this winter. God Bless the Sun and Hope for the warmer winter

I 'speculate' about 50EH+ worth of older generation equipment waiting to drink the yummy electricity but many will not ever see the yummy jolty electricity unless Bitcoin price exceed 60.000 and remain there or continue to rise, then 50EH+ can come back to live but I 'speculate' that to be a sweat dream only happens while day dreaming.

wander if an honorable judge will declarer who Satoshi is in the near future

[philipma1957]

Post above seems weird .

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   710725  (19 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   100.2786%  (1094 / 1090.96 expected, 3.04 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   21659344833264.85                           
Current Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                           
Next Difficulty:   between 22754113335583 and 22775356902286
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3527% and +0.4464%
Previous Retarget:   November 13, 2021 at 11:57 PM  (+4.6853%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 11:01 PM  (in 6d 9h 14m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 11:12 PM  (in 6d 9h 26m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 3m 58s and 13d 23h 15m 41s

My guess is very little new gear is shipping at the moment.

Maybe we go flat for a while longer.

[btc2marspro]

Hope the very little equipment is shipping but reality seem the other way. Many new generation miners went offline unexpectedly is my speculation. More will come online in next few weeks.  More secondhand equipment is in transit to south america and to the land of freedom USA but they are stuck in shipping lane or floating just outside of Long Beach port in the ocean. I wish  philipma1957 is correct on the very litle equipment

[mikeywith]

wander if an honorable judge will declarer who Satoshi is in the near future

I think you are talking about Craig Wright case, many "fools" believe that the judge will declare him as Satoshi and that BSV will overtake BTC and all the hashrate will move there, what most people don't know is that case has nothing to do with the identity of Satoshi, the judge will either make CW pay Kleiman half of the alleged 1.1M BTC (which we all know he has no access to), or the judge will dismiss the case and the Kleiman family loses, regardless of which way it goes, no judge will declare who is/isn't Satoshi.

Besides, the only way for anyone to declare himself Satoshi would be to sign a message using the address from the Genesis block, even if every judge in the world declared someone as Satoshi -- it will change exactly nothing, and bitcoin and its mining won't be affected by all of that nonsense.


Anyway, to follow up on my previous post, here are some interesting reads


https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/kazakhstans-power-shortages-crypto-miners-and-geopolitics/
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-to-restrict-crypto-miners-amid-power-shortages
https://cointelegraph.com/news/we-are-the-number-two-crypto-miner-in-the-world-and-we-see-practically-no-financial-return-says-kazakhstan-president-tokayev

Kazakhstan is the second-largest mining hub according to the latest Cambridge study, with 18% of the total hashrate, many Chinese moved there after the ban in China, sadly for them (luckily for the rest) the country started facing some serious power shortage and everyone is blaming the "foreign miners" for that, the president demanded for more regulation, and there have been some moves against those who mine illegally.

a few days ago they confiscated 4,500 miners and are still hunting for the other illegal operations, so probably many illegal miners have shutdown before the police identify their locations.

Now it's also very likely that the tariff on power for mining will get another spike, the president said

"We are the number two crypto miner in the world, and we see practically no financial return"

So, you have a power shortage crisis, the majority of the income goes to foreign miners "mostly Chinese", you export coal at a premium and now you have to burn it to avoid blackouts, so it's a -lose-lose situation, how do you recover that? shut down all the illegal miners and tax the heck out of the ones who mine legally, if they stay -- you make more money, if they leave -- you use less coal and get to sell it to China.

This whole mess is a net positive as far as the difficulty is concerned.

[philipma1957]

Hope the very little equipment is shipping but reality seem the other way. Many new generation miners went offline unexpectedly is my speculation. More will come online in next few weeks.  More secondhand equipment is in transit to south america and to the land of freedom USA but they are stuck in shipping lane or floating just outside of Long Beach port in the ocean. I wish  philipma1957 is correct on the very litle equipment

Doubt it.  Look a s19 at 100th makes 100 x .335 = 33.50 usd a day

burns 3.3 x 24 = 79.2 kwatts say 80

at 15 cents that is 12 bucks

33.50 - 12 = 21.50 profit

if the gear was there to be sold and selling it would be.

The gain in diff clearly shows  they shipped  shipments last 2 jumps.

and they do not have chips for more gear.

While I can be wrong (often I am wrong)

what rich company would not want gear right now.

Anyone with a good mine would consider adding to it.

they are not.

we are at 150- 160eh

1% =  1.5eh or

  1 x 100 =      0.1ph
15 x 100 =      1.5 ph
15000 x 100 = 1.5 eh

I personally think

bitmain
innosilicon
Avalon
microbt


can produce 1.5 eh a week  endlessly  if they had chips. that would be about 2% jump

I also think the demand exists

I simply do not see long steady  production of asics like in 2018

when the companies kept selling like mad at cheaper and cheaper prices.


Look one can argue

a guy with 5 cent power paying only 4 a day to run a 100 th machine  can stand 2x the diff with ease

so where is the gear?

why isn't the gear diff 2x?

No chips and production issues seems to be the best answer.

[wndsnb]

^^^^^^ Yup.

If they could, the manufacturers would sell 10X more gear at 1/2 the price to extract the most possible $. The fact that they aren't is proof that they can't.

[stompix]

I think you are talking about Craig Wright

it means you've drunk and smoked a lot of stuff you weren't supposed to do
Short version!

So, you have a power shortage crisis, the majority of the income goes to foreign miners "mostly Chinese", you export coal at a premium and now you have to burn it to avoid blackouts, so it's a -lose-lose situation, how do you recover that? shut down all the illegal miners and tax the heck out of the ones who mine legally, if they stay -- you make more money, if they leave -- you use less coal and get to sell it to China.

This whole mess is a net positive as far as the difficulty is concerned.

Yeah, seems like we're going to have another semi-China.
Kazakhstan was a net exporter of energy, then it needed to feed miners who just eat up cheap energy pay zero tax, employ just a bunch of poeple, and takes all that money somewhere else.

I've always argued that there is a lot of difference between what a country as in the government has to gain from mining and what citizen and business have. I've posted that plan of a mining farm in Argentina with cheap power, does anyone think the government will see even 10% of the revenue?
Unless you're China and everything you mine gets spent inside the country by Chinese poeple or the US with nearly the same thing and its tax system then you're losing money by giving away energy at 1/5 the price you could export it for.

Latest Block:   710824  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   100.4118%  (1193 / 1188.11 expected, 4.89 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4713% and +0.5660%

This will be indeed unexpected, but are we going to see negative?

[btc2marspro]

I speculate semi-china to be a short term temporary things. China man will find a way to power them on    I speculate several new EH in transit as we speak  Happy Mining

Daily rolling blackout at the mining data centers in a few countries makes it fun to estimate hash rate growth. It is hidden in the plain sight. Can be a big suprise to everyone when many of these rolling blackout end the same time or in the similar period as it can jump the hash rate at higher percentage.

[stompix]

And here we go, for a small timeframe we went into negative pace

Latest Block:   710977  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.9894%  (1346 / 1346.14 expected, 0.14 behind)

Of course, in $ a 4% increase in diff would have been better than an 8% drop in price but, don't know, I'm counting coins right now, feels it's like double accounting, tax purposes, and my own personal ego on the other side.

China man will find a way to power them on   

Yeah, good luck to them (actually not that much, just a tiny bit), I've seen in the last 6 months that things aren't that easy to do, we're barely managing to reach the ATH in hash with ATH in price and 6 months of bitmain&co delivering stuff, I'm starting to firmly believe that a lot of gear will simply never mine, a lot!

[btc2marspro]

blackout must be passing by to some sad mining data centers

And here we go, for a small timeframe we went into negative pace

Agreed, some equipment will never see the electricity again or for a long time but if BTC price rises more such as exceed $70,000, another frenzy to come. now headed to the winter in many countries, miners that are being used in leu of heater will return that are paid for by the welfare checks. It is a known phenomena every winter.

[mikeywith]

Is it possible that this is due to their better efficiency in making usd/kwh, and that there is actually a greater power shortage than chip shortage? This goes in line with opinion that ASICs are actually siting idle, rather than being scarce.

I believe it's a combination of both, your theory is valid tho and phill has pointed that out a while back, altcoins mining gears make a lot more money than BTC mining gears when power is the only factor, but this can't be the only reason, because even the manufacturers that are not known to be making altcoins mining gears and focused mainly on BTC gears aren't making enough gears.

Power shortage is real and people are having a hard time getting their gears hosted, just to give you an example, in one of the major hosting groups today, I saw a few folks looking for 1MW+ hosting, the total is around 23MW, in return, only 11MW was offered, price is 6.25c per KWw, when I saw that I was like damn that's cheap, but then he said "customer pays capex" which means you need to pay for the transformer, container, and all the wiring and whatnot, so ya, finding a place to host your gears is pretty damn hard.

[philipma1957]

yeah eth asic makes more $ per watt
and ltc/doge asic makes more $ per watt
then btc asic
heck even gpu eth makes more $ per watt

so that is interlinked
power available for a big player ie bitmain.

pretend they have 20 megawatts

they can build a s19 and sell it for 3000 at a profit we got one for that price direct from them.
they can build a l7 and sell it at ?  most likely 3000  yeah they sell it for way more

they can build a e11 and sell it at ? most likely 3000 yeah they sell it for way more

so if all three burn 3 kwatts

the s19 makes 34 a day pre power
the L7 makes 170 a day pre power
the e11 makes 140 a day pre power.

say you have limited chips and you built 3000 of each unit

you can mine the 3000 L7
you can mine the 3000 e11

and you sell the 3000 s19 at a stupid high price.

so the s19 sell slow the diff jumps slow and you rack up 🆙 mining the other gear.

this is in play somewhat due to limits on power and on chips.

and it works for me😊

[robertpaulsen]

I believe it's a combination of both, your theory is valid tho and phill has pointed that out a while back, altcoins mining gears make a lot more money than BTC mining gears when power is the only factor, but this can't be the only reason, because even the manufacturers that are not known to be making altcoins mining gears and focused mainly on BTC gears aren't making enough gears.

It is both, the question is whichever is greater problem, but regardless, this means we will probably be looking at a very low change in diff in next year or so, IMHO.

P.S. My post got deleted, I dont know why, I'm new here but I'm open for guidance on what I did wrong.

[philipma1957]

I believe it's a combination of both, your theory is valid tho and phill has pointed that out a while back, altcoins mining gears make a lot more money than BTC mining gears when power is the only factor, but this can't be the only reason, because even the manufacturers that are not known to be making altcoins mining gears and focused mainly on BTC gears aren't making enough gears.

It is both, the question is whichever is greater problem, but regardless, this means we will probably be looking at a very low change in diff in next year or so, IMHO.

P.S. My post got deleted, I dont know why, I'm new here but I'm open for guidance on what I did wrong.

Its complex as to why your post was deleted.

I will try to simplify it.

BTC = the one and only coin of note in this section.

So we have some that believe this and insist that the section remain only BTC.

You are new and were likely deleted to let you know don’t mention non BTC info here.

I am in pretty much complete disagreement with that, but I don’t fight about it too tired of it.

Reminds me of an argument I had years ago in 1970 my friends dad was telling five or six of us that all N words were evil and bad. I said he was wrong if it were true we would be at war and that the war would not end until either n-words were gone or we were gone. I told him I believed some n-words were good and some were bad just like us white people.
We argued back and forth for ten minutes and he finally agreed I might be right and that only 99% were bad.

I thought well I got him to shift from 100% it is a start.
A week later he grabbed me and told his son to punch me in the face his son did not want to do it. I told his son go ahead had a nice black eye for a week. Learned a lesson be careful when you fight for right you can get hurt.

So here in this section I do not fight for right. I only mention that BTC maximumilist exsists in this section and a few others.

I rarely argue about including other coins and reasons BTC diff grows or does not grow.

I believe BTC is the primary foundation of all cryptocoins
and the pos coins are piece of shit coins just go buy a bond in a real company.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

...
P.S. My post got deleted, I dont know why, I'm new here but I'm open for guidance on what I did wrong.

Considering I have not yet needed to delete any posts in this thread (my thread and self-moderated) it had to be one of the Forum mods that did it.

What did you post: Clickbait links? Suspicious links? Duplicates of posts in other threads? Any of those will attract the attention of the Forum mods.
As Phil said, ja this thread and area is primarily for discussion of only BTC but--I have no problems with posts regarding shitcoins as long as the primary focus of the post deals with BTC.

[philipma1957]

Is it possible that this is due to their better efficiency in making usd/kwh, and that there is actually a greater power shortage than chip shortage? This goes in line with opinion that ASICs are actually siting idle, rather than being scarce.

….

I think this was deleted and in all fairness it should not have been.

But I am not looking to blame op or mod or anyone else.

I just think it was a good point.

I gave him 10 merits just now as I want him to know I pretty much agree with his idea 💡 and want to support new people.

at robertpaulsen just keep posting and you will move past newbie to jr member and past jr to member with the merits I gave to you.

at mods you were heavy hand to him.

[mikeywith]

...
P.S. My post got deleted, I dont know why, I'm new here but I'm open for guidance on what I did wrong.

Considering I have not yet needed to delete any posts in this thread (my thread and self-moderated) it had to be one of the Forum mods that did it.

What did you post: Clickbait links? Suspicious links? Duplicates of posts in other threads? Any of those will attract the attention of the Forum mods.
As Phil said, ja this thread and area is primarily for discussion of only BTC but--I have no problems with posts regarding shitcoins as long as the primary focus of the post deals with BTC.

I am pretty sure a BTC maximalist reported it and the mod didn't bother reading the whole post and simply deleted it for containing words such as "ETH", although anyone who read the whole post would see that the main focus of that post was regarding BTC, the idea is this "altcoins like ETH keep breaking ATH in terms of diff, BTC's diff isn't, so it's likely that gear manufacturers are focused on making alt gears which is why bitcoin diff isn't spiking as fast as it could/should", I believe his post is

1- Good quality.
2- Right on topic.

But ya, shit happens, if you want to know "why" was your post deleted you can always post in meta, here, I found your deleted post thanks to LoyceV > https://loyce.club/archive/posts/5851/58515243.html

[robertpaulsen]

First of all, thanks for the merit (even though I don't know its use), and thanks for the explanations. I will, hopefully, be a better forum user from now on.

Second, to be back on the topic, the idea came to my mind reading philipma's posts here a few months ago, and stayed with me ever since. Right now I think its the perfect moment for it to be the real factor of hashrate change, given the energy crisis.
I've created a google sheet which monitors such mining parameters over time, like a few popular ASICs and GPUs revenue in usd per kwh, along with BTC hashrate, and display them on a single chart. All this using some open APIs available and google's neat http capabilities. This way we could observe changes depending on mining efficiency, and over 2-3 months, some insights could appear.
I will share it when its ready, and if its allowed here. Any thoughts?

[mikeywith]

I will share it when its ready, and if its allowed here. Any thoughts?

Not that the decision is mine, but to me, as long as the main focus is on BTC difficulty then it deserves to be here, if NotFuzzyWarm doesn't agree (which I doubt given how reasonable he has been in managing this topic) you can always start your own topic.