2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[kano]

Hmm - another 12 hours but no one reported it.
Anyway, it was:
2021-12-25 08:57:11 DIFF CHANGE: hi=715680 delta=0.32% new=24272331996980.0 prev=24195286980613.6
So ended up a small amount.

And the year ended needing another +3.2% to reach the ATH

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[mikeywith]

maybe we can do 0.0%.

Unfortunately, it was a positive change with 0.3184%, while this number is relatively small, the come back from -4% in a very short time could suggest that some serious "likely new" hashrate is coming in, which makes it more likely for this epoch to have a med sized jump, hopefully, nothing above 4-5%.

[philipma1957]

maybe we can do 0.0%.

Unfortunately, it was a positive change with 0.3184%, while this number is relatively small, the come back from -4% in a very short time could suggest that some serious "likely new" hashrate is coming in, which makes it more likely for this epoch to have a med sized jump, hopefully, nothing above 4-5%.

Wait till next year.


and I will be doing next year. Fuzzy turned it over to me.

I asked him to do 2023


2022 is locked right now see link

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=64507

edit

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5378628.0

[NotFuzzyWarm]

<snip>
2022 is locked right now see link
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=64507

Actually the correct link to the 2022 thread is https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5378628.0 

[mikeywith]

NFW did a good job despite our disagreement in regards to how far alt discussion can go, and I still do not agree with his view but I certainly respect it.

I know phill is not a "btc maxi" and thus the discussion on alt coin mining impact on btc difficulty would be more interesting next year.

Thanks NFW for hosting this year's topic and please do accept my apology if I ever crossed the line in this topic.

Happy new year everyone.

[philipma1957]

NFW did a good job despite our disagreement in regards to how far alt discussion can go, and I still do not agree with his view but I certainly respect it.

I know phill is not a "btc maxi" and thus the discussion on alt coin mining impact on btc difficulty would be more interesting next year.

Thanks NFW for hosting this year's topic and please do accept my apology if I ever crossed the line in this topic.

Happy new year everyone.

Maybe I have drifted more towards btc as the priority in this thread 🧵.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Thank ye very much though I wouldn't call it much of a 'job'.
Aside from a very occasional 'ehem' to the few times things began to wander too much outside what this area of the Forum is supposed to be about I dinna have to really moderate much less delete a single message. I'm rather amazed that there was never even a single random OT or spam ad post.  

I do have to agree that some inclusion of alts has to be allowed here because the more general areas of the Forum are a morass of, well, everything - where discussions are quickly buried and/or ran off track - but I kept it limited because that is also the 'thin edge of the wedge' so to speak.

[philipma1957]

Thank ye very much though I wouldn't call it much of a 'job'.
Aside from a very occasional 'ehem' to the few times things began to wander outside what this area of the Forum is supposed to be about I dinna have to really moderate much less delete a single message. I'm rather amazed that there was never even a single random OT or spam ad post.  

I do have to agree that some inclusion of alts has to be allowed here because the more general areas of the Forum are a morass of, well, everything - where discussions are quickly buried and/or ran off track - but I kept it limited because that is also the 'thin edge of the wedge' so to speak.

It is tough to try and be in a vacuum.

As a miner of

btc
xec
ltc/doge
gpu/eth

and a believer in btc above any form of fiat or cryptocoin I am conflicted as to what to do at times.

I see the markets for miners push us miners into certain directions and then it turns out you should reverse your course.

Right now most of my mining is on gpus mining a coin (eth) that i have zero faith in.

I sell the eth and put some to cash for bills and the rest to btc.

I would never have faith in ETH until Mr V publicly apologizes to me and returns my 2 eth coins.  that will never happen
so I mine it and dump it as fast as I can.

If I look at the major mining coins I rate BTC as the best coin there is and Doge as second best.

Doge has decreasing inflation
and btc vanishes into nothing

I am not sure which is better 100 years from now.
But today BTC is clearly the best of the bunch.

Doge’s decreasing inflation will clearly be interesting in year 50 of its existence
it simply adds x coins every year.
x
2x
3x
4x

year 50 is 50x
year 51 is 51x only 2% inflation
year 100 is 100x
year 101 is 101 x only 1% inflation

do i think it beats BTC not while I am alive.
I am 64 no kids oldest male on both sides made it to 93 so I break the record I have 30 years left.
That uncle was enjoying his life at 92 then his health failed 😨
My point is wandering quite a bit but in general The new thread will push BTC

and I want to point that the industry is having a real push against the 100kwatt miner.

this is why we are grinding out more gear ⚙️ and are now at 200kwatt

hoping to go to 300kwatt

our mine will focus on bitcoin asics for 2022.

[alh]

Thank ye very much though I wouldn't call it much of a 'job'.
Aside from a very occasional 'ehem' to the few times things began to wander outside what this area of the Forum is supposed to be about I dinna have to really moderate much less delete a single message. I'm rather amazed that there was never even a single random OT or spam ad post.  

I do have to agree that some inclusion of alts has to be allowed here because the more general areas of the Forum are a morass of, well, everything - where discussions are quickly buried and/or ran off track - but I kept it limited because that is also the 'thin edge of the wedge' so to speak.

Just let us know if you think we need to make Phil "work" for it 2022. 

Have a Happy New Year in 2022 (including Phil too).   

[stompix]

Of course, it was a positive adjustment, didn't I say one week ago it's highly improbable to have a positive jump? Because 6+2-8  whatever? Didn't I say over 50k, we took a dip below! I just hope 2022 will be better if not to mining and the price at least for me finally going over a 3% nailed predictions accuracy.

Anyhow, all in all, it was a good year, let's see what the next year and topic will bring, a bit late but:
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone!

[philipma1957]

Of course, it was a positive adjustment, didn't I say one week ago it's highly improbable to have a positive jump? Because 6+2-8  whatever? Didn't I say over 50k, we took a dip below! I just hope 2022 will be better if not to mining and the price at least for me finally going over a 3% nailed predictions accuracy.

Anyhow, all in all, it was a good year, let's see what the next year and topic will bring, a bit late but:
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone!

The New Year part is a bit early  

oh we are at 49.7k

...
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   715840  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.3921%  (161 / 165.31 expected, 4.31 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                           
Current Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Next Difficulty:   between 23730239246850 and 24187602953214
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.2334% and -0.3491%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3184%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 8, 2022 at 5:19 AM  (in 12d 21h 49m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 8, 2022 at 12:56 PM  (in 13d 5h 26m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 22m 46s and 14d 8h 59m 50s
...

[mikeywith]

and a believer in btc above any form of fiat or cryptocoin I am conflicted as to what to do at times.

I am on the same line, out of the tens of thousands of coins out there BTC is the only coin that I treat as a strong asset that is almost guaranteed to be there for decades to come, however, I like to take advantage of the other smaller coins merely for financial gains, but since BTC isn't the only coin the people can mine and given that all mining operation share the same aspect of (Electricity, Initial investment, ROI, chips, and manpower or the lack thereof) it makes the discussion about mining those coins in respect to BTC very interesting.

I can only imagine that if BTC was the only POW coin and every $ that was spent on mining any other coin was invested in BTC mining instead -- the difficulty of bitcoin would have been on a different level.

Do us all a great favor and start predicting diff rise and price drop from here on.

[philipma1957]

and a believer in btc above any form of fiat or cryptocoin I am conflicted as to what to do at times.

I am on the same line, out of the tens of thousands of coins out there BTC is the only coin that I treat as a strong asset that is almost guaranteed to be there for decades to come, however, I like to take advantage of the other smaller coins merely for financial gains, but since BTC isn't the only coin the people can mine and given that all mining operation share the same aspect of (Electricity, Initial investment, ROI, chips, and manpower or the lack thereof) it makes the discussion about mining those coins in respect to BTC very interesting.

I can only imagine that if BTC was the only POW coin and every $ that was spent on mining any other coin was invested in BTC mining instead -- the difficulty of bitcoin would have been on a different level.

Do us all a great favor and start predicting diff rise and price drop from here on.

I am a bit drunk titos vodka with many many any spilt vanilla beans. a true vanilla vodka.

today is british boxing day and the 121st birthday of my Norwegian grandmother,

so here is hoping she drops some blessings for all of us.

she made some good butter cookies for christmas 🎄 they were shaped like a pine tree really good.



Maybe the blessing is coming?

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   716010  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.1159%  (331 / 344.38 expected, 13.38 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                           
Current Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Next Difficulty:   between 23372542425587 and 23993910948518
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.7071% and -1.1471%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3184%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 8, 2022 at 8:02 AM  (in 11d 18h 41m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 8, 2022 at 5:31 PM  (in 12d 4h 10m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 5m 33s and 14d 13h 34m 41s

Sideways movement is a blessing for properly established miners.

[alh]

Just short of the 1/4 point for this epoch, and we are tracking towards a decrease.

Latest Block:   716175  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.7227%  (496 / 512.81 expected, 16.81 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                           
Current Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Next Difficulty:   between 23505884713189 and 23935539975676
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1577% and -1.3876%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 2:56 AM  (+0.3184%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 8, 2022 at 7:51 AM  (in 10d 15h 26m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 8, 2022 at 2:20 PM  (in 10d 21h 55m 1s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 54m 46s and 14d 11h 23m 5s

Unfortunately BTC price isn't doing anyone favors at this time. I've see it break above $50K only to fall a day or so later.

Presently BTC price is: $47,560.

[eectechnology]

Firstly, a happy and prosperous New Year to all. Promises to be very interesting indeed.

Don't know how many of you read the comics (Coindesk etc) but I saw an article the other day about Marathon Mining's purchase of 78,000 Bitmain S19 XP's for $879 million, or $11,270 per machine. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this the same price as paid for a single unit?

if it is then the probability is that everyone pays the same price - no discounts. I've often wondered why Bitmain bother selling miners rather than just using them. By my reckoning they can make a S19 XP for just over $2000 including their operational, manufacturing and amortised design costs in which case the machine could pay for itself in 4 months, even with BTC at $45k. Sure, they can get better cashflow by taking deposits and staggering deliveries, but is it worth making $9000 profit at the expense of adding more hashing capacity to the network?

My math isn't quite up to scratch so perhaps someone could do the calculations? Is BM's strategy the best one?

My apologies if my post is off topic.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Sure, they can get better cashflow by taking deposits and staggering deliveries, but is it worth making $9000 profit at the expense of adding more hashing capacity to the network?

It is the old scenario of mining - during the various gold rushes yes *some* miners got rich but many more if not most at best broke even. However, the folks making & selling shovels, pans and sluices made a fortune by supplying the tools.

Same thing applies here. By now only concentrating on selling miners Bitmain has divorced itself from the effects of what all that hardware will do to diff.

[eectechnology]

Sure, they can get better cashflow by taking deposits and staggering deliveries, but is it worth making $9000 profit at the expense of adding more hashing capacity to the network?

It is the old scenario of mining - during the various gold rushes yes *some* miners got rich but many more if not most at best broke even. However, the folks making & selling shovels, pans and sluices made a fortune by supplying the tools.

Same thing applies here. By now only concentrating on selling miners Bitmain has divorced itself from the effects of what all that hardware will do to diff.

Yeah, that's a sound scenario but in this case BM is the biggest shovel supplier in town. I don't have any idea of how many miners they have operating on their own behalf, and like I said I don't have the math to model the real life scenario. My gut tells me that holding onto the miners will make them a lot more money than selling them. If too many miners are sold then the hashrate goes higher and no one makes money.

I know this is all a bit irrelevant to mining speculation as such, but I think it would be interesting to see what strategy is best for the manufacturers.

[philipma1957]

Selling 870 million worth of gear with a 9 month delivery date.

gear cost them 145 million to build.
so the terms are ⅓ down or 290 million.

they build the gear for 145. buy 45 million in btc and hold 100 million.

next payment is 290 million  gear is built.

so buy 90 million in btc hold 200 million

last payment comes buy 90 million btc hold 200 million

So bitmain. is a guaranteed winner on day one.

Since It is likely that my numbers above are pretty much solid.

While the buyer of the gear pays up front and waits.

To me if the world is truly short chips it is a smart move.

I guess the 870 million in gear may have cost more than 145 million

so say 200 million the build the gear that still means first payment  covers the cost of the gear with 70 million left over

say 35 btc + 35 fiat.  and of course the second and third are onehundred profit.

the miner must wait a long time to get gear. the seller goes from in the red to in the black with out sending the gear or even having the gear built.

so in these times of sorry no chips bitmain is doing it smart. I am guessing it is smart.

[PrimeNumber7]

I've often wondered why Bitmain bother selling miners rather than just using them.

Bitmain sells its miners at a high price. The price Bitmain sells its miners for is the expected value of mining revenue, based on anticipated future growth in difficulty, and estimated costs associated with running the miner (electricity, and repairs), and the price of bitcoin, minus some discount rate to account for the possibility that difficulty will rise faster than anticipated, or that the price of bitcoin will be lower than anticipated.

So in essence, Bitmain is removing the risk of high difficulty growth from their balance sheet and allowing their customers to assume this risk. As Phil alluded to, this also happens to help them finance their manufacturing operation.

[kano]

Selling 870 million worth of gear with a 9 month delivery date.

gear cost them 145 million to build.
so the terms are ⅓ down or 290 million.

...

I very much doubt it costs them $2000 to build a miner