Bitcoin price predictions based on actual data / mathematics

[thestupidfool]

Hi all
I own no btc but mainly XRP and a few other cryptos, and these represent, last time I checked about 3% of my investment money (most in index stocks/bonds with some gold)

I was reading the old bitcoin mailing list archives and saw this from 2009

https://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/bitcoin-list/?viewmonth=200901

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...



Now in 2020 we know btc can never have all the worlds finance on it because it can only do 7 tx per second or some other very low amount (visa alone does 1700 tx per second) so we can assume the $10 mil per coin price prediction is wrong (apparently the worlds economy is now over 1 quadrillion  (1000 trillion) but lets just stick with that 100-300 range that got the above poster the 10 mil answer).

So the question is realistically how high can bitcoin go?
How much money do retail investors have left to put into it?
How much money are institutional investors likely to put into it in the future?
I read bitcoin miners sell almost 100% of their coins so there has to be an influx of new money from somewhere.

For the price of btc to double (55k usd to 110k usd) it has to go from its current market cap of USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion. Then to double again (110k usd to 220k usd)  it needs a 4 trillion market cap. Where is all this money coming from?

The people in 2021 saying btc will go to 10 mil or 100 mil etc what mathematics are they basing their predictions on? Or are they just making numbers up?

I don't know the answers to these questions but it seems one day at least the buyers will have to run out and btc drops massively maybe to 0.

Food for thought.

[GreatArkansas]

How much money do retail investors have left to put into it?

This is difficult since it is still difficult the inflows of money to Bitcoin, like where it came from.
But I believe if you combined retail investors, they are huge.

How much money are institutional investors likely to put into it in the future?

Very large numbers speaking with the institution. Institutional investors are the biggest player for Bitcoin, they will be the one will drive the price of Bitcoin crazy on my own.

I read bitcoin miners sell almost 100% of their coins so there has to be an influx of new money from somewhere.

Yes, because for sure some miners are using their profits to pay their expenses on mining, (hardware, electricity, etc expenses). But this time, there are still a lot of willing to buy Bitcoins, so for me, miners selling their coins is okay at the moment.

[Fundamentals Of]

Food for thought.

The food's not so tasty.

But let me remind you that 99.9% of people making predictions are basing their predictions on nothing but wishes and daydreams. There is no math in there.

Let me ask you a few questions, though. Why would the people in the future stop buying BTC if the currency is BTC itself? If the safest, cheapest, fastest, most private way to move money from one continent to another is through BTC, why would the future run out of people buying BTC? If the world is already filled with piles of cash and yet the governments are still continuously printing unlimited money, why would the people suddenly stop wanting to have BTC?

[thestupidfool]

Ok thanks both for the responses.

So there is still room for growth in retail investors https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoin-users/ but there is still a max limit there

Modern websites say "In 2019, total world wealth grew by $9.1 trillion to $360.6 trillion"

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-88-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

So if 1% of all that went into btc that would be $3.6 trillion which makes btc go about 4 fold

and retail vs institutional investors looks around even https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-retail-flows-jpmorgan

btc will never be a world currency because of the slow tx time, high cost, and low tx per second (all modern cryptos are better than it) so its only function now for big businesses like tesla (yes they sell cars for btc but waiting 1 hour and paying 20 usd on a 100k transaction is not a big problem) and investment banks etc is the hope it goes up in the future.

So eventually buyers have to run out and it may be a lot sooner than 2140 when the last coin is mined.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

How much money do retail investors have left to put into it?

This is difficult since it is still difficult the inflows of money to Bitcoin, like where it came from.
But I believe if you combined retail investors, they are huge.

Retail investors tend to reduce their capital flows into market. If taking the Google Trend chart as a visual indicator for retail investment, it has been in stagnant phase. Per chart rule, will it has a dump before getting a new all time high?

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=bitcoin

Yes, because for sure some miners are using their profits to pay their expenses on mining, (hardware, electricity, etc expenses). But this time, there are still a lot of willing to buy Bitcoins, so for me, miners selling their coins is okay at the moment.

Since 2020, with institutional investment hype, most of monthly mined bitcoins were bought by institutes. GrayScale bought a lot of bitcoin every month since 2020.

Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!
Grayscale is buying BTC 54% faster than it is mined so far in 2021

https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/1354908960025927682

[Fundamentals Of]

Ok thanks both for the responses.

So there is still room for growth in retail investors https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoin-users/ but there is still a max limit there

Modern websites say "In 2019, total world wealth grew by $9.1 trillion to $360.6 trillion"

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-88-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

So if 1% of all that went into btc that would be $3.6 trillion which makes btc go about 4 fold

and retail vs institutional investors looks around even https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-retail-flows-jpmorgan

btc will never be a world currency because of the slow tx time, high cost, and low tx per second (all modern cryptos are better than it) so its only function now for big businesses like tesla (yes they sell cars for btc but waiting 1 hour and paying 20 usd on a 100k transaction is not a big problem) and investment banks etc is the hope it goes up in the future.

So eventually buyers have to run out and it may be a lot sooner than 2140 when the last coin is mined.

For as long as there is fiat, a portion of it will always go to Bitcoin. And 1% is a little too low an estimation.

BTC will never be a world currency? Will? Never? It already is. Slow time? Try fiat, the clearing alone takes days. High cost? Try sending billions in BTC, your fee won't even reach a hundred dollars.

We'll see if buyers will drain out in the future. For me, it won't. For as long as power over money is monopolized by the few people inside central banks and governments, there will be buyers. For as long as money is controlled by human beings, there will be abuse, and there will be reasons to therefore buy Bitcoin.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

But let me remind you that 99.9% of people making predictions are basing their predictions on nothing but wishes and daydreams. There is no math in there.

If we were to make some similarities with bitcoin and stocks, not every predictions are based on nothingness, there is some math and data analytics behind some of them and saying that 99.9% of people making predictions is a farcical claim. Although I am saying that there is a math behind this I am not saying that it is easy to do that, they do complex calculations for that as far as I know.

[nullius]

I own no btc but mainly XRP and a few other cryptos,

Username checks out.

<snip>

Now in 2020 we know btc can never have all the worlds finance on it because it can only do 7 tx per second or some other very low amount (visa alone does 1700 tx per second)

You need to learn some actual data about Bitcoin, before you start these types of discussions.  The Bitcoin blockchain only supports a low rate of transactions; but Bitcoin, the currency, can support a practically unbounded transaction rate on L2, L3, and otherwise off-chain (using the blockchain as an occasional settlement layer).

https://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/bitcoin-list/?viewmonth=200901

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

Eh, can’t resist...

[Fundamentals Of]

But let me remind you that 99.9% of people making predictions are basing their predictions on nothing but wishes and daydreams. There is no math in there.

If we were to make some similarities with bitcoin and stocks, not every predictions are based on nothingness, there is some math and data analytics behind some of them and saying that 99.9% of people making predictions is a farcical claim. Although I am saying that there is a math behind this I am not saying that it is easy to do that, they do complex calculations for that as far as I know.

The number is obviously exaggerated to emphasize a point. I believe that's clear. That's not to be taken literally.

Bitcoin price predictions are found everywhere. I hope there's indeed math behind them. For the majority, I believe there's none. They're not even based on the roughest of analyses. Never mind complex calculations. Even some popular Bitcoin bulls just spit numbers out of thin air.

[Upgrade00]

I don't know the answers to these questions but it seems one day at least the buyers will have to run out and btc drops massively maybe to 0.

You seem to be the one making numbers up at this point. Claiming buyers, which basically includes everyone, would run out of money to invest in assumes that every asset will go to zero with no new influx of money.

So the question is realistically how high can bitcoin go?
How much money do retail investors have left to put into it?
How much money are institutional investors likely to put into it in the future?
I read bitcoin miners sell almost 100% of their coins so there has to be an influx of new money from somewhere.

• As high is sustainable at the time,
• This is almost impossible to calculate,
• With the rate at which institutional investment has been growing, we could have every public company trying to get Bitcoin into their balance sheet in the future.

[thestupidfool]

Ok thanks for more replies everyone.
I agree with fundamentals of: most of the predictions seem to be based on nothing. A lot of the big predictions come from people that own funds that have btc in them and they take a management fee. So for Winklevoss twins that is 2% of 36 billion of btc = 700 mil usd a year ! thats quite a lot of money and is no wonder they constantly pump btc.

As for using btc for a day to day tx: imagine being at the supermarket and buying $20 worth of items, paying a $20 tx fee, and waiting 1 hour for it to clear. Not gonna happen obv. For big tx its ok I suppose but that represents only a small % of crypto holders let alone everyone.

If btc did see a big crash presumably the money would flow into other cryptos. That would be interesting.

As for those that just semi hyped btc you provided no math at all either.

I really dont know whats gonna happen but I made my decision to sell btc and buy mostly xrp and some other cryptos and in absence of some convincing mathematics to go back to btc i will stay as is. We will see which one works out better in 10-20 years from now

[philipma1957]

Your name suits the thread topic so well that I gave you a merit

Bitcoin is more than a currency 💴.

It is a store of wealth much like gold is used.

Gold is worth 8-11 trillion.

Thus bitcoin could replace gold or at least capture 30-40% of the market.

That would be as much 4.4 trillion.

[nullius]

As for those that just semi hyped btc you provided no math at all either.

If you make an utterly ignorant screed which demonstrates a manifest misunderstanding of Bitcoin, do not expect smarter people to jump to reply with scholarly analysis.

I really dont know whats gonna happen but I made my decision to sell btc and buy mostly xrp and some other cryptos

OK, you are just here to pump your idiotic shitcoin.

and in absence of some convincing mathematics to go back to btc

You should follow this man’s posts:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=9636

He offers confirmed maths and science for proof that Bitcoin has already failed!

HTH.

As for using btc for a day to day tx: imagine being at the supermarket and buying $20 worth of items, paying a $20 tx fee, and waiting 1 hour for it to clear. Not gonna happen obv. For big tx its ok I suppose but that represents only a small % of crypto holders let alone everyone.

Learn something about Bitcoin before you opine.  What you are saying is tantamount to a proclamation that the banking system must fail because SWIFT is too slow and expensive to use at the supermarket.  See my above post for some hints, and seek education about how this Bitcoin thing works.

Your name suits the thread topic so well that I gave you a merit

Damn it, Phil, that merit is worth more than his whole shitcoin portfolio.

mainly XRP and a few other cryptos
about 3% of my investment money

Bitcoin is more than a currency 💴.

It is a store of wealth much like gold is used.

Imagine if gold had a built-in global settlement layer that worked over the Internet, upon which you could build rapid, low-cost payment rails for various different money transfer applications.

[Wilhelm]

Marketcap is the currentprice X the total amount of coins.

1. Not all coins are accessible
2. Not everyone paid the current price for their coins
3. If everyone would sell it doesn't mean you get the current price

Aka Marketcap is a flawed concept and does not represent all the money that went into the system

[electronicash]

BTC as they say is a speculative asset, the predictions are all speculations. the biggest so far that i've read was $1M. as much as i want that to happen, it will not probably go that high this 2021. the latest i've read on cointelegraph was $400k here is the article.

no one is sure how much will it go. if the institutions are really going to come and send in their money to BTC, its price will go up that's for sure yet no one will still be able to predict a certain number.

[traderethereum]

I really dont know whats gonna happen but I made my decision to sell btc and buy mostly xrp and some other cryptos and in absence of some convincing mathematics to go back to btc i will stay as is. We will see which one works out better in 10-20 years from now

I hope you do not sell your bitcoin now because bitcoin will have a chance to break the next higher price.
If you do not have an urgent thing that needs money, you should hold your bitcoin and if you have the skills to trade, you can use some of your bitcoin to trade to make more bitcoin.
I can not predict how high bitcoin prices will increase this year because I am sure that no one will know for sure.
I hope all of your coins will increase, so you can have more bitcoin ready to sell in the next ATH of bitcoin.

[buwaytress]

Fun experiment and yeah I remember that one, which makes $10 million Bitcoin impossible to imagine in 2010. But we're seeing steady growth in total wealth every year, so $10 million then equals to about $20 million Bitcoin today -- still impossible but it makes the $1 million Bitcoin "projection" all the more "plausible with every passing decade.

Plus we're getting USD pumped into infinity so who knows?

[philipma1957]

Fun experiment and yeah I remember that one, which makes $10 million Bitcoin impossible to imagine in 2010. But we're seeing steady growth in total wealth every year, so $10 million then equals to about $20 million Bitcoin today -- still impossible but it makes the $1 million Bitcoin "projection" all the more "plausible with every passing decade.

Plus we're getting USD pumped into infinity so who knows?

The USD will lose 30% to inflation due to the amount printed for covid.

This is very likely a low number. As it will compound over time.

I am 64.

Movies in a movie theatre sat matinee a double header 2 movies a few cartoons and a race clip if your ticket number's last digit matched the winner of the race you got a toy boys got models girls got dolls.  This went on in the 1960's I must have went to 35 or 40 matinees back then.

50 cents ! For this deal. now 1 movie with no race ,no cartoons  is 9 dollars for a matinee

 Gasoline 19 cents.  now  2.99 in New Jersey
 
New mustang car 2900. 10 Models to select from $27,155 - $72,900 from this website. https://www.ford.com/cars/mustang/models/


my point is natural inflation in 55 years did those numbers.

I have not got into gold mining of asteroids which if successful will change gold's value as a storage of wealth bigly.

https://theprint.in/opinion/giant-asteroid-has-gold-worth-700-quintillion-but-it-wont-make-us-richer/260482/


Realistically if it is mineable at good value gold becomes common and would be used much like we use copper. Copper is okay for electrical uses gold is amazing and far better for electrical uses.

So If you are stack coin and not stacking BTC think gold is scarce good luck with that.

[BitcoinBunny]

Hi all
I own no btc but mainly XRP and a few other cryptos, and these represent, last time I checked about 3% of my investment money (most in index stocks/bonds with some gold)

I was reading the old bitcoin mailing list archives and saw this from 2009

https://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/bitcoin-list/?viewmonth=200901

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...



Now in 2020 we know btc can never have all the worlds finance on it because it can only do 7 tx per second or some other very low amount (visa alone does 1700 tx per second) so we can assume the $10 mil per coin price prediction is wrong (apparently the worlds economy is now over 1 quadrillion  (1000 trillion) but lets just stick with that 100-300 range that got the above poster the 10 mil answer).

So the question is realistically how high can bitcoin go?
How much money do retail investors have left to put into it?
How much money are institutional investors likely to put into it in the future?
I read bitcoin miners sell almost 100% of their coins so there has to be an influx of new money from somewhere.

For the price of btc to double (55k usd to 110k usd) it has to go from its current market cap of USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion. Then to double again (110k usd to 220k usd)  it needs a 4 trillion market cap. Where is all this money coming from?

The people in 2021 saying btc will go to 10 mil or 100 mil etc what mathematics are they basing their predictions on? Or are they just making numbers up?

I don't know the answers to these questions but it seems one day at least the buyers will have to run out and btc drops massively maybe to 0.

Food for thought.

It is now much easier to buy crypto than any of your precious stocks or gold. It is easier than property as well, much easier.

That is at least 1 reason why buyers for BTC will not "run out" as soon as buyers for the near 100 per cent of your other investments.

"Gold"? Give me a break. Between 1975 and 2005 gold didn't even keep up with published inflation numbers, let alone real inflation.


Listen to some Michael Saylor as he pretty much debunks any of your assumptions in almost every interview.

The digitisation of virtually everything over the last few decades obviously points to a future in which also digital assets will most likely be far more successful than any cumbersome physical asset in the past (gold, paintings, wine). Indeed, even stocks, which 95% of the population on the planet don't even own and can't easily access.

No one owes you an explanation why BTC will work or not. Supply and demand is the main reason obviously.
If you don't believe anything you read here or elsewhere you are free to buy as much XRP as you can.

So far it has deflated hugely compared to BTC. Every few years it seems to fall on its ass back down to zero after some people claim it is the best thing in the world.
Like almost any shitcoin we have seen so far.


Quite sad really. But good luck to you.

[buwaytress]

The USD will lose 30% to inflation due to the amount printed for covid.

This is very likely a low number. As it will compound over time.

I am 64.

Movies in a movie theatre sat matinee a double header 2 movies a few cartoons and a race clip if your ticket number's last digit matched the winner of the race you got a toy boys got models girls got dolls.  This went on in the 1960's I must have went to 35 or 40 matinees back then.

50 cents ! For this deal. now 1 movie with no race ,no cartoons  is 9 dollars for a matinee

 Gasoline 19 cents.  now  2.99 in New Jersey
 
New mustang car 2900. 10 Models to select from $27,155 - $72,900 from this website. https://www.ford.com/cars/mustang/models/

my point is natural inflation in 55 years did those numbers.

I'm a Gen X, literally the very last year of the understood Gen X timerange, straddling the time as analogue moved over to digital so I was actually lucky enough to still experience almost everything you'd mention (Southeast Asia so we maybe lagged behind for a while).

Dad took me to matinees, and I remember our tickets were 2 units of our currency but it would include roasted sunflower seeds or steamed chickpeas (whichever you preferred) so I watched Rambo and Die Hard with a full stomach. Then you'd go for a coffee and streetfood that cost the exact same amount. 2 units or 50 "cents" for the coffee and 1.50 for a bowl of noodles with mince and roast meat. I remember this very well.

Today, that same 2 units can't get even half a bowl of the same noodles. And the cheapest movie ticket now without frills is 15 units. You can get half price if you watch old releases. And countries neighbouring us have it much worse. Dollar was also 2.50 pegged for the longest time until the late 1990s... it's steadily grown to almost 4.50 now in the last 2 decades.

So not only are we putting up with inflation, the US dollar is being overvalued more and more every year.

And all that in 20-30 years. While min wage has only doubled since my parents first paycheque in 1970s to the 2000s.

Impossible for many people to see nothing but a dead end with national fiat.  People with privilege used to be able to open US dollar accounts at banks or even buy gold, but now it's Bitcoin that doesn't need privilege and access.