Thoughts on My First Ever Trade BTC Long

[Tristan Bieber]

I am planning on making an entry, first one ever. The idea is to hodl on steroids. Please tell me if this is wrong/too risky/why you wouldn't do it/what you would do differently and your opinions?

Pair: BTCUSD

In: 55K

SL: ? should I?

TP: 100k

3x

Liq Price: 38K

20% of my portfolio

right now market is at 54k ish (little scary pullback tbh)

I'd really appreciate some serious answers, I dont got anyone to ask.

BIG THANK YOU

[sherryDEFI]

If you haven’t been “paper trading” for a while, you should start. See how you do. Do that before you risk 20% of your stack.

[nullius]

Classic.  When Bitcoin has an up day, “I’ll buy in the dip.”  When it dips:

(little scary pullback tbh)

You have not said anything about your risk tolerance.  (Among other things.)  There is no one-size-fits-all formula to apply to the numbers that you stated.

And I am probably the wrong person to ask:  I bought into Bitcoin for political reasons, without regard to the market.  It has worked out well for me; but I did not plan it that way!

[yazher]

Just wait for the price to fall back, you don't need to ride the current hype since there is no guarantee for it to hold for long, and when the price decreased then grab the chance to put your money but don't put them all at once. Some people regretted their decision when the price was fell back to 30k+ after it finally reached 40k, they didn't grab the chance to invest. Now it's not gonna happen since we are far from that. That's why if the price will gonna get to that point again, you should guys know what you gonna do.

[Poker Player]

I am planning on making an entry, first one ever. The idea is to hodl on steroids. Please tell me if this is wrong/too risky/why you wouldn't do it/what you would do differently and your opinions?

Pair: BTCUSD

In: 55K

SL: ? should I?

TP: 100k

3x

Liq Price: 38K

20% of my portfolio

right now market is at 54k ish (little scary pullback tbh)

I'd really appreciate some serious answers, I dont got anyone to ask.

BIG THANK YOU

I find what you say contradictory. If you are going to hold on steroids, there is no point in putting a SL. I think you should do more research before investing in Bitcoin.  Asking on a forum what to do with your money doesn't seem a smart move.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

Just wait for the price to fall back, you don't need to ride the current hype since there is no guarantee for it to hold for long, and when the price decreased then grab the chance to put your money but don't put them all at once. Some people regretted their decision when the price was fell back to 30k+ after it finally reached 40k, they didn't grab the chance to invest. Now it's not gonna happen since we are far from that. That's why if the price will gonna get to that point again, you should guys know what you gonna do.

This is somewhat right and wrong, right because you can get more bitcoin out of your money when the prices are down and if the prices are going to go back up and go higher then you will get a higher profit margin but that depends on how long you are going to hodl and how patient you are even if the prices are starting to go up. Wrong because you might get left behind because there is uncertainty that the prices are going to down and if the reverse were to happen then you will be buying less bitcoin for your money if you get in late.

[mk4]

Mate. Your plan is to "hodl on steroids" yet you're asking about adding a stop-loss? That totally destroys the "hodl" concept, as it completely defeats the purpose.

As always, and I sound like a broken record now by saying this almost every single day: dollar. cost. average. https://dcabtc.com/

[odolvlobo]

3x
...
20% of my portfolio

Why use margin? You have enough to cover the entire amount, and you will be paying interest on money that you already have.

Regardless, margin is not appropriate for new traders. You will lose everything.

[thestupidfool]

insanely stupid obviously.
https://www.reddit.com/r/tax/comments/mfegx4/reclaiming_my_life_after_being_destroyed_by_crypto/

[tranthidung]

In: 55K

SL: ? should I?

TP: 100k

3x

Liq Price: 38K

20% of my portfolio

Why do you think bitcoin will hit $100,000?
When do you think it will hit $100,000?

The WHEN question is important, it affects your plans:

• Interest you have to pay in meantime with your Long position
• It contains how long you will take risks. Price is volatile and everything can happen till the day WHEN bitcoin hits $100,000
• Are you sure that your LONG position won't be liquidated. Even with 3x leverage, do you think your position will never be liquidated? If liquidation is possible, at which price, have you calculated it yet?
• 3x leverage is good but 20% of capital is too high IMO (it should be 10% or 5%).
• Why do you not not simply buy with Sport trading and withdraw your bitcoin from exchange wallet to your non custodial wallet? Hold it and wait for $100,000 to take profit. This year, next year or next 4 year, it is very possible.

[nullius]

Link fixed to be usable:

insanely stupid obviously.
https://old.reddit.com/r/tax/comments/mfegx4/reclaiming_my_life_after_being_destroyed_by_crypto/

Bloody hell, you call that a “free country”!?

If anyone ever wonders why I sneer at America (and Americans), this is why.  In the Soviet Union, at least the average person realized that he was living under the yoke of an unbearable tyranny.  And that is why the system eventually collapsed...  In America, the people are dumb enough to call themselves “free” (and to bomb others into unwilling submission to the same “freedom”).  Americans are too stupid to understand that they live in one of the worst countries in the world.

Protip for the OP in that Reddit thread:  “Crypto” did not destroy your life.  Your insanely tyrannical government did.  Blame must be laid fairly.

I bought into Bitcoin for political reasons, without regard to the market.  It has worked out well for me; but I did not plan it that way!

Why use margin? You have enough to cover the entire amount, and you will be paying interest on money that you already have.

Regardless, margin is not appropriate for new traders. You will lose everything.

^^^ That.  And if you get wrecked trading on margin, don’t you dare post to Reddit that your life was “destroyed by crypto”.

Why do you think bitcoin will hit $100,000?
When do you think it will hit $100,000?

The WHEN question is important, it affects your plans:

There, you are just being rational.

I am too cautious to predict “when”; but for my part, I will answer the “why”:  Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

We are in the mid-$50k range with ATH >$60k, and very far from market saturation.  Market cap is over $1 trillion.  Absent a mass-catastrophe (e.g., disappearance of the Internet), the size of the Bitcoin market will grow at least another 20x–30x.  That is a conservative estimation; it will probably grow much more.

Supply is capped.  >88% of maximum supply already exists.  We currently have a low inflation rate, which will be economically negligible after the next halving.  Therefore, price must increase.

This analysis ignores the inevitable and accelerating devaluation of the dollar.  When I call Bitcoin at a long-term value of over $1 million, that is according to the value of today’s dollars.

If Bitcion >$1 million seems crazy to you, just remember how crazy “Bitcoin >$50k” would have sounded five years ago.

—Oh, did you say $100k?

* nullius yawns.

[tranthidung]

There, you are just being rational.

I am too cautious to predict “when”; but for my part, I will answer the “why”:  Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

We are in the mid-$50k range with ATH >$60k, and very far from market saturation.  Market cap is over $1 trillion.  Absent a mass-catastrophe (e.g., disappearance of the Internet), the size of the Bitcoin market will grow at least another 20x–30x.  That is a conservative estimation; it will probably grow much more.

I know that and my questions are for OP.

As he want to sell at $100,000, he should have reasons behind his belief or plans. Why (fundamentals): I agree with you) but if OP don't have clear idea on why bitcoin should increase in price, just buy because of FOMO and heard of others, crowd effects, he can be wrong. He might lose his bitcoin (from liquidation) and at the time bitcoin is trading at $100,000, he won't have bitcoin to sell.

WHEN question does not make sense if he want to sell from Spot trading, but with Leverage trading it becomes a very important question.

Supply is capped.  >88% of maximum supply already exists.  We currently have a low inflation rate, which will be economically negligible after the next halving.  Therefore, price must increase.

I know too. With the next one or even later two halvings, bitcoin block rewards will be very low and it will be time to significantly increase the awareness of bitcoin deflation. It began with 2020 May halving but will become bigger.

Many millions of bitcoin were lost and more will be lost.

This analysis ignores the inevitable and accelerating devaluation of the dollar.  When I call Bitcoin at a long-term value of over $1 million, that is according to the value of today’s dollars.

The devaluation of dollar is one of factors and it is not a determinant for the price of bitcoin. Bitcoin will hit $100,000 for example but instead of hitting that price in 2024, it can be done in 2021. Covid-19 reflects the dollar devaluation for the crowd.

If Bitcion >$1 million seems crazy to you, just remember how crazy “Bitcoin >$50k” would have sounded five years ago.

—Oh, did you say $100k?

No. It is reasonable for me, not crazy.  

According to some models and fundamentals of bitcoin.

[peter0425]

If you haven’t been “paper trading” for a while, you should start. See how you do. Do that before you risk 20% of your stack.

Thats correct advise mate, and besides If OP wasn't ready yet then don't risk because this is serious matter and may lost that Big amount.

38$k? it is not a little fund just to lost or to wait for logn term when you are aiming for short term.

[leea-1334]

I think it is good personally! But this is more of a holder entry I would say so be prepared to have to wait on this for a very long time, maybe months before next ATH is breached. OR if you want, take profit at 1% and keep doing so.

I prefer the hodling:)

[maxreish]

I bet you already know the risks since you know what youre saying about leverage, stop loss and everything. If you are confident enough and your technical analysis says you can go proceed with your long entry, then make one. 3x leverage with 38k liquidation is good and long point of liquidity. Just dont forget to put stop loss so it wont est up all your funds.

5% to 10% profit gain is enough and do re entry again.

[nelson4lov]

Buying Bitcoin now would probably seem like we're buying the top so I would suggest that even if you do go ahead to take the thread, don't go all in just yet. Endeavor to keep some funds that you would use to buy back lower incase the price drops below your entry.  I think that should average down your entry. Apart from that, you should be good to go. I also like the fact that your leverage size is not too high. 3x leverage is not that risky compared to a 10x to 20x leveraged position.

Good luck with your trade. I'm also hoping bitcoin would hit $100K but I don't have any long term open positions at the moment

[goaldigger]

Many anticipating here a huge dump on the price of Bitcoin on the next bear trend, but no one knows when it will happen since we are still rising. If you’re ready to take that huge risk, then so be it beside you’re planning to hold Bitcoin until it reached $100k, and I’m sure it will happen in time. Its also good that you have cut loss level and maybe you can buy more on a bear market, and wait for Bitcoin to recovers again. You have to believe on yourself and its your money, Bitcoin is a good decision is just that your point of entry will be matter.

[trigger1975]

SL: ? should I?

Good advice: at least define your stop before you enter the trade – as long as you're emotionally detached from it! If you're in, you're emotionally attached and you will most likely be unable to make anymore rational decisions.

My opinion on your plan: don't do it. If you want to HODL on steroids, take the money you can afford to lose and buy BTC on the spot market. Leveraging without a strategy or enough knowledge is a recipe for disaster.