Firm Support? APR20-$7k, APR19-$3k - Where do you see firm Bitcoin price

[btc-room101]

People talk a lot about "Seen this before", but no they haven't

What we saw in 2017 was 5x $4k to $17k,

2019 $3k to $12k 4x

In 2020 $6k to $60k 10x

So for all the talk about 'seen this before' we have not seen a parabolic 10x rise in six months

Lots of reasons for the blast-off Sep-20 was COVID, and of course stimmy-gov checks

Also the robin-hood fad brought in a lot of new traders who were told they could get rich 'playing crypto'

Easy for 0.01 to go 10x, or $1 to go to $10, difficult for $10k to go to $50k, without billionaires like Musk buying in

Who is going to buy? To bring this back up to $60k or higher? It has to be people with big cash, MUSK used his company to borrow cheap COVID cash; Is this the future? Cheap easy money to BTC?

...

The question is what is the support? All has been parabolic since sep20, about $10k, and the low in the time-frame was $6k

I'm going to guess the initial support level is $10k, which will be a test. There is no reason for a higher support level because even $20k is lofty in the heavens.

What you all say? What is the reasoning??

[Tytanowy Janusz]

This is bubble my friend. Its the formation in which price does not go from support to support, especially to the support way below bubble formation (10k). Its the formation in which price go parabolic until your taxi driver asks you about bitcoins.

What we saw in 2017 was 5x $4k to $17k,

2019 $3k to $12k 4x

In 2020 $6k to $60k 10x

Nah. In 2017 it was from 750 to 19700 - x26 in 12 months not x5 my friend and whole bubble from bottom to top was x127. Current bubble is x7 in 12 months (not 26) and whole bubble from dip to moon is x20. Se we are nowhere close to 2017 phenomena. We are closer to 2016, where everything was just starting to accelerate.

[btc-room101]

feb 28,2021 $46k?

jan 26, 2021 $32K?

pre-covid/stimmy moonshot $10k

What is the sweet resting place of bitcoin during this sell-off??

I think we're already near testing the $46k now, the USA hasn't even woke up yet to panic

On the way to $32k lots of big firms are going to have to liquidate.

Was Bitcoin 2020->2021 a 'pandemic stock'?? If true, then $10k is a likely resting place

Is BITCOIN TBTF have so many investment houses bought BTC as a 'cash equivalent' does this now harm the bedrock of finance? Remember $1Trillion is in BITCOIN, that's a big loss

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I think we're already near testing the $46k now, the USA hasn't even woke up yet to panic

You don't panic when you woke up and see a red dildo. You buy things on dicount, you laught at panic sellers. You panic only when you see -5%, -7% 30 min after, -10% 1h after, -15% right after. When you are part of this dump. When you bought -10% dip and now its -20%. Thats where your mind is creaming "sell this, save you savings". Thats when you panic sell. Not when you woke up with smile, open exchange account and see how everyone is in panic. You are calm.You buy from panic sellers.

feb 28,2021 $46k?

jan 26, 2021 $32K?

During 2016-2018 bubble we had 5 corrections harder than 35%. Our hardest one this cycle was 25%. I would not be surprised to see even 40% drop to 38k before finding strong support to move forward.

[btc-room101]

This is bubble my friend. Its the formation in which price does not finds supports, especially below bubble formation. Its the formation in which price go parabolic until your taxi driver asks you about bitcoins.

What we saw in 2017 was 5x $4k to $17k,

2019 $3k to $12k 4x

In 2020 $6k to $60k 10x

Nah. In 2017 it was from 750 to 19700 - x26 in 12 months not x5 my friend and whole bubble from bottom to top was x127. Current bubble is x7 in 12 months (not 26) and whole bubble from dip to moon is x20. Se we are nowhere close to 2017 phenomena. We are closer to 2016, where everything was just starting to accelerate.

I see your point, I'm just using coinmarketcap.com right now for reference, but I remember well the $20k top, and the following 90% crash, back then the mod's here were super sensitive you couldn't even mention the 90% crash, they were ostriches with their in the ground

I tried to do averages in my $6k to $60k 2020 rise, if you look at the last major parabolic rise, it didn't end well.

This parabolic rise will also not end well, we have a 25% loss in a week, come the morning in USA there will be more selling,

My question here is what is the bottom this time??

Using your numbers of x127, last parabolic blow out we ended up at 6x, e.g. started at $500, and found last support at $3,000, using same logic of 2020 pre-covid support at $6k, we're not going to find support at $36k

The problem here is BIG-NUMBER's don't play the same as small numbers


Easy to get $500 to $10k, and then find support at $1,000 later

But here you had big INSTITUTION & CORPORATIONS during COVID jump on BTC as a 'in lieu of cash', that is what send our $6000  (march 13,2020) to $61000 ( apr 14,2021), I call that 10x, you call it x7, so whatever

The question, is what is the support level post-crash? What do you see? We can't base it on history and certainly we can't even agree on history, as you choose to think that the past gains were larger, and current smaller.

The 2017 gain was over a year to $500 to $20k ( a 40x gain ), the 2020-2021 covid rally was 3-4 months tops to go $10k to $60k, so the velocity and gain is completely different on the most recent parabolic bubble insanity.

...

So in summary, the question again is what is the final support level?? Will you even take a guess?? My reading the chart is that it seems to take a year on average to find the low consolidation following a bitcoin parabolic bubble blowout.

The past tells us nothing about the future, the little guy suckers holding 0.05 BTC (average hold) HODL'er is not what created our current bubble, the 100's of billions came from corporation and hedge-funds parking their cash in BITCOIN, and now they either pull out or take a terrible loss. HODL THEY CANNOT NOT.

[btc-room101]

I think we're already near testing the $46k now, the USA hasn't even woke up yet to panic

You don't panic when you woke up and see a red dildo. You buy things on dicount, you laught at panic sellers. You panic only when you see -5%, -7% 30 min after, -10% 1h after, -15% right after. When you are part of this dump. When you bought -10% dip and now its -20%. Thats where your mind is creaming "sell this, save you savings". Thats when you panic sell. Not when you woke up with smile, open exchange account and see how everyone is in panic. You are calm.You buy from panic sellers.

feb 28,2021 $46k?

jan 26, 2021 $32K?

During 2016-2018 bubble we had 5 corrections harder than 35%. Our hardest one this cycle was 25%. I would not be surprised to see even 40% drop to 38k before finding strong support to move forward.

OK thanks for giving me a numbe, but I really don't see a support level between $60k all the way down to $11k, the $38k is a magic number, cuz that's where a lot of CEO's made entry into BITCOIN as 'investment in Jan 2021.

Remember the entire reason for the bubble was cheap-cash, COVID stimulus CORP & personal; These things aren't in the future.

Also the narrative bought in the biz community fall of 2020 to spring 2021 was "Bitcoin is a safe place to park cash", now that we have 25% loss in a week, and most like a 50% loss in the coming week, why in the hell on earth would this BIG stupid money come back to BITCOIN?

Things always OVER-REACT, there isn't much choice here, all this CORP money is borrowed money ( now a loss ), all this HEDGE-MONEY is OPM other peoples money, its not like any of this can HODL, we're not talking about leading morons to the cliff here.

Sorry for my sophistry, just want to know your justification for a solid support at $38k.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I see your point, I'm just using coinmarketcap.com right now for reference,

use chart:
https://pl.tradingview.com/chart/0LtmAuZy/

But here you had big INSTITUTION & CORPORATIONS during COVID jump on BTC as a 'in lieu of cash', that is what send our $6000  (march 13,2020) to $61000 ( apr 14,2021), I call that 10x, you call it x7, so whatever

You said we go from 6k to 60k in 2020. Well april 2021 is not part of 2020. So I assume that you ment 12months form now, and 12 months before we were 7x lower. If we talk about whole 2020 we did go from 6k to 29k not 60k.

In 2020 $6k to $60k 10x

The question, is what is the support level post-crash?

You want supports ... but as soon as you see a nice correction you call it a doom day because there is no suppot. Support is about to be created right here. And only 48 institutions are invested in bitcoin currently. There are thousends that will jump in at 50-100k range - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5327971.msg56696242#msg56696242. It is possible that the bubble ended. That we are going back down. But I give it a 10% chance. So I reduced by bag by 20% way above this dump and now I sleep calm waiting to see how things will change but again. This is support formation not doom day. We will pump to 100-200k and then dump to 50k - I give it a 40% chance.

why in the hell on earth would this BIG stupid money come back to BITCOIN?

You will understand once you will become rich. And your main purpose of investing wound not be a moon strategy. But diversification. No matter what will happend you want to have something to leave in your villa. No matter if there is a war, it government size gold, no matter if there is hyperinflation of you currency, no mater if there is hyperinflation of $, no matter if governments seize real estate.
I will never be a nocoiner. I will never sell my last bitcoin. I'll always have at least 10% in crypto. That's whats called diversyfication. And I'm not the only one.

[btc-room101]

During 2016-2018 bubble we had 5 corrections harder than 35%. Our hardest one this cycle was 25%. I would not be surprised to see even 40% drop to 38k before finding strong support to move forward.

Well this 25% correction is just the first week, and today in ASIA we had 10% ($55k->$47k), which means at the open USA there will be correction, this correction isn't over until the fat lady sings, and in the past it took 9-12 months to find the sweet resting spot, before BTC resumed its mtn climb

For the record, back in 2017 in this forum I said post $20k collapse, no way $6k could go back to $20k, but how in the hell did I know about COVID, or free stimmy-check, or trillions of money to corporations

So now with this current 'hedge-fund blowout',[archegos] not seen since LTCM, could/would the US-GOV step in and bail out these BTC losses that we'll see on this 40% decline ( using your number $61k to $38k ), we're talking 100's of billions of USD loss here ( I calc about $350B loss in a week ), and most of it is CORP money, and they like to privatize gain, but socialize loss.

Of course if this doesn't happen, there is no TBTF, no bailout, say we can't blame the Russians for CORP USA buying Bitcoin, then why in the hell would they ever step back in??

Or horror of horrors, what if our own Federal-Reserve-Bank was already activated the plunge-protection-team to save bitcoins ass, to save MUSK, to save uncle-scam, ...

Under real world conditions BTC would have never been worth anything, had post 2008 people not lost trust in the USD or US-GOV, bitcoin would have had no traction, of course now with "GET RICH EASY", of course nobody gives a shit about this,

I find it hilarious that everyone on BTC is 'rich' and in lockdown, folks that isn't rich, rich is 'freedom'.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

For the record, back in 2017 in this forum I said post $20k collapse, no way $6k could go back to $20k, but how in the hell did I know about COVID, or free stimmy-check, or trillions of money to corporations

So you were wrong once. You will be wrong second time. This is the first stron correction in bubble that is in the middle of its power.

All your words are just panic-building phrases.

"BTC Balance Sheets: 42 Companies Hold 1.3 Million Bitcoin Worth More Than $65 Billion"
https://news.bitcoin.com/btc-balance-sheets-42-companies-hold-1-3-million-bitcoin-worth-more-than-65-billion/

Companies hold 65 Billion, but they lost on 20% dump majority of "( I calc about $350B loss in a week )"? You see that math does not work that way? 20% of 65 billion is not 200 bilion?

BTC grows because of dozens of reasons. Not only 2 mentioned by you.

"Or horror of horrors, what if our own Federal-Reserve-Bank was already activated the plunge-protection-team to save bitcoins ass, to save MUSK, to save uncle-scam, ..."

Yea sure. To save his 1% balance, that he invested in BTC XD

Under real world conditions BTC would have never been worth anything, had post 2008 people not lost trust in the USD or US-GOV, bitcoin would have had no traction, of course now with "GET RICH EASY", of course nobody gives a shit about this,

Under real world conditions BTC is worth 49k$ now. Because over world is real ... or we leave in simulation? But I agree that it is worth that much mostly because people does not trust governments and fiats emitted by them. But to surprise you ... its not better now than it was in 2008. Its getting more and more momentum. Thats one of reasons why bitcoin is growing. Not because of stimulus check.

Here is second one:

0 - printers doing brrrr to buy treasury bonds
1- this makes negative real yields on bonds (this push money down)
As of 2017, the size of the worldwide bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated at $100.13 trillion, 100 trillion is looking for alternative
2- interest on term deposits in banks are close to zero (this push money down)
3- corporate bonds risk of not being paid is bigger than expected ROI (this push money down)
4- inflation and fear of inflation getting bigger and bigger forces people to look for assets that will protect their funds from inflation by accepting even greater and greater risk (because safe assets guarantee a real loss (expected profit - inflation))
5- this push money to real estate makes them super expensive (3-4 % real profit from renting is still not enough to cover inflation)
6- this push money deeper and deeper (stocks and dividend profits) but they are cosmically overvalued and dividends are very small
As of December 31, 2019, the total market capitalization of all stocks worldwide was approximately US$70.75 trillion. so 70 trillion is looking for alternative
7- this push money deeper into very high risk assets (bitcoin) - the profit opportunity is usually better than the loss guarantee - and bitcoin is worth only 300 bil $ so even a small fraction moved from above assets will cause huge pump here.

Thats how everything is connected. And when (or rather if) bonds will start again to give adequate, certain profits part of funds will go back will start going back to the top of the ladder. Where to hide? First of all i don't think you need a place to hide, money moves from asset to asset in cycles ... but, if you need a place to hide... the best asset that almost never go down is long life food and toilet paper

[btc-room101]

You will understand once you will become rich. And your main purpose of investing wound not be a moon strategy. But diversification. No matter what will happend you want to have something to leave in your villa. No matter if there is a war, it government size gold, no matter if there is hyperinflation of you currency, no mater if there is hyperinflation of $, no matter if governments seize real estate.
I will never be a nocoiner. I will never sell my last bitcoin. I'll always have at least 10% in crypto. That's whats called diversyfication. And I'm not the only one.

Well I was talking about BIG CORP 'smart money', not stupid little people money. R U telling me that your a CEO like MUSK? I don't think so.

I really think you missed the point. I could try again, the question is "Why should the BIG CORPORATIONS, return the $350Billion USD they just lost to BITCOIN" Your response above has nothing to do with this question.

I would suggest that you read Marc Fabers book "Tomorrows Gold" the history  of wealth, back to the cave man ages, he talks about how to keep money through all times good&bad, and he's obviously not talking about 'gold' cuz he says 'tomorrow'

My take on crypto is like keeping box of cash on hand, or some pocket gold, just enough to get over if the banks fail.

I'm a math-physics person, I  used to write crypto-software for commercial markets, I'm not at all impressed by bitcoin, or its lying promoters.

Here in ASIA everybody keeps 2-1/2 ounces of gold hidden at hand, so in emergency they can flee, and start over. Some keep more, its true in India as well, nobody trusts paper-money, and all gov's encourage their people having gold, unlike the USSA. Where gold ownership is discouraged.

Like the man said, your CRYPTO only works on the NET, when its alive, the US-DOD created TCP-IP, if&when shit hits the fan, first thing they do is shutoff comm. Fact.

You write like a young person, or a non-english speaker, or perhaps your just really bad at typing.  I well tell you, 90% of all fortune in human history were made in real-estate; But yes in times of war, you lose that, that's why smart people are always ready to bail and find a new domicile and start over, again its why people keep that bag-of-gold at hand. Diversification goes without saying, on the other hand in all history the wise advise you to keep all your eggs in one basket, and watch like a hawk.

I will tell you how I handle crypto. I too never sell, but I never BUY, I mined years ago; I have various alts that are now worth ridiculous sums; I have very little BTC, but I do hack BTC because its my hobby, over the years I have found many private-keys, but I just add them to my CSV and watch how long it takes other to spend them. It gives me an idea of how quick other people are hacking bitcoin. Like windows, it's not a problem on the alt-coins, cuz 99% of the criminal-hackers are on bitcoin. Just like 99% of the hackers are on windows.

I think BTC is an NSA honey-pot, that's why I never touch BTC, even though I have some ( keys ), I never would ever use them in an exchange, because then I would go on 'their' list. I think all USA exchanges, and most on earth are honeypots.

Now enough, BS how about answering my question. You said $38k but you never justified that number. Like I said, I see NO support at that number.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Well I was talking about BIG CORP 'smart money', not stupid little people money. R U telling me that your a CEO like MUSK? I don't think so.

I really think you missed the point. I could try again, the question is "Why should the BIG CORPORATIONS, return the $350Billion USD they just lost to BITCOIN" Your response above has nothing to do with this question.

They did not loss 350 Billion XD I already said that to you. You need to read more carrefour

All your words are just panic-building phrases.

"BTC Balance Sheets: 42 Companies Hold 1.3 Million Bitcoin Worth More Than $65 Billion"
https://news.bitcoin.com/btc-balance-sheets-42-companies-hold-1-3-million-bitcoin-worth-more-than-65-billion/

Companies hold 65 Billion, but they lost on 20% dump majority of "( I calc about $350B loss in a week )"? You see that math does not work that way? 20% of 65 billion is not 200 bilion?

You seems to see world black and white only. You see 20% dump, you are panicking, bringing 2 arguments that your whole world stand on and forgets about anything other.

Bitcoin is worth 1 trillion. Bond market is worth 128 trillion (data from 2020), stock market is worth 70 trillion. Why would whales not scare away because of this dump? Because they can profit way more from pumping it x10 from now.

[btc-room101]

For the record, back in 2017 in this forum I said post $20k collapse, no way $6k could go back to $20k, but how in the hell did I know about COVID, or free stimmy-check, or trillions of money to corporations

So you were wrong once. You will be wrong second time. This is the first stron correction in bubble that is in the middle of its power.

All your words are just panic-building phrases.

"BTC Balance Sheets: 42 Companies Hold 1.3 Million Bitcoin Worth More Than $65 Billion"
https://news.bitcoin.com/btc-balance-sheets-42-companies-hold-1-3-million-bitcoin-worth-more-than-65-billion/

Companies hold 65 Billion, but they lost on 20% dump majority of "( I calc about $350B loss in a week )"? You see that math does not work that way? 20% of 65 billion is not 200 bilion?

BTC grows because of dozens of reasons. Not only 2 mentioned by you.

"Or horror of horrors, what if our own Federal-Reserve-Bank was already activated the plunge-protection-team to save bitcoins ass, to save MUSK, to save uncle-scam, ..."

Yea sure. To save his 1% balance, that he invested in BTC XD

Under real world conditions BTC would have never been worth anything, had post 2008 people not lost trust in the USD or US-GOV, bitcoin would have had no traction, of course now with "GET RICH EASY", of course nobody gives a shit about this,

Under real world conditions BTC is worth 49k$ now. Because over world is real ... or we leave in simulation? But I agree that it is worth that much mostly because people does not trust governments and fiats emitted by them. But to surprise you ... its not better now than it was in 2008. Its getting more and more momentum. Thats one of reasons why bitcoin is growing. Not because of stimulus check.

Here is second one:

0 - printers doing brrrr to buy treasury bonds
1- this makes negative real yields on bonds (this push money down)
As of 2017, the size of the worldwide bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated at $100.13 trillion, 100 trillion is looking for alternative
2- interest on term deposits in banks are close to zero (this push money down)
3- corporate bonds risk of not being paid is bigger than expected ROI (this push money down)
4- inflation and fear of inflation getting bigger and bigger forces people to look for assets that will protect their funds from inflation by accepting even greater and greater risk (because safe assets guarantee a real loss (expected profit - inflation))
5- this push money to real estate makes them super expensive (3-4 % real profit from renting is still not enough to cover inflation)
6- this push money deeper and deeper (stocks and dividend profits) but they are cosmically overvalued and dividends are very small
As of December 31, 2019, the total market capitalization of all stocks worldwide was approximately US$70.75 trillion. so 70 trillion is looking for alternative
7- this push money deeper into very high risk assets (bitcoin) - the profit opportunity is usually better than the loss guarantee - and bitcoin is worth only 300 bil $ so even a small fraction moved from above assets will cause huge pump here.

Thats how everything is connected. And when (or rather if) bonds will start again to give adequate, certain profits part of funds will go back will start going back to the top of the ladder. Where to hide? First of all i don't think you need a place to hide, money moves from asset to asset in cycles ... but, if you need a place to hide... the best asset that almost never go down is long life food and toilet paper

In have seen your second list many times floating around. You know the $65B is just public companys and their SEC report, the vast majority is private CORP money.

Under your logic,you really think that the other $300B came from who robinhood traders??

Today BTC is under 1Trillion, just a few weeks ago it was 1.3T, now its close to 950B, that where I get my $350B, somebody lost the money, I guess you could average out and say it was the people who bought ten years ago, but in my mind the people who lost this money are those who bout post Oct 2020, and that $350B rise didn't come from stimmy-checks, as most of that money went to alts'

https://news.bitcoin.com/btc-balance-sheets-42-companies-hold-1-3-million-bitcoin-worth-more-than-65-billion/

42 companys on public record, it doesn't mean all companys, it just means 42 that they know of

There is that number 42 again, the number that Musk spent on entry $42k, that's a critical number when BTC hits that number MUSK will spontaneously combust.

Everything is NOT connected, and if you think that if a list of 7 items that are generic connects something, then you have a serious problem in critical thinking.


So now for  the third time, how do you justify your $38K support level for the BTC collapse??

[nullius]

https://archive.is/4sdxf#selection-7341.0-7341.169

bitcoin will fall below ripple in cap in 2019, the writing is on the wall, just like lotus-123, being first doesn't make you a winner forever, just once at the beginning

That was your last post before your account went to sleep for 28 months.  It “woke up” on the same day as the market dipped, 2021-04-18, when you unwisely started dumping crap in a topic that had my attention.

Anyway, as seen above, you have no aptitude for making economic predictions.  Moreover, you have previously predicted that SHA-256 would be broken by 2020.  If you predict that the sun will rise in the east, I think that I need to double-check!

I'm a math-physics person, I  used to write crypto-software for commercial markets, I'm not at all impressed by bitcoin, or its lying promoters.

Not impressive:  You calling other people liars.

quantum-computers are way off, but 2^256 will be cracked soon with off the shelf hw.

The so called block-chain, is just what we call a linked-list in computer science, 70 year old tech nowadays.

Yup, grade F transparent troll.  Yawn.  He may have better luck spreading rumours that nullius works for the NSA.

(From my desk in Fort Meade.)

[magneto]

It has become a trend that the peak of the past big bull market generally becomes the new support level.

If that theory holds up, and I think it holds some ground, then $20k should be the "firm" support level.

But keep in mind that black swan events occur. Just because $20k seems impenetrable right now doesn't mean that it will stay that way. Volatility in the market is still tremendously large and don't let this period of relative stability fool you - don't forget the flash crash that sent BTC sub-$3000 on certain derivative exchanges just a year ago.