Sumo betting seems rigged - can you make profit with it?

[michellee]

Even with the rigged games we need luck to win. We can make sure of the winner, but the same won't happen with every series. Based on the article it seems like, every season a particular player is selected to make a win. Maybe the one who is watching the sumo fights for a long term can make the perfect prediction based on the popularity over a period of time.

It's gambling so we need luck. But if you're sure that the game is rigged and you've got the signal who's going to win, who needs luck if you're sure that the game will have its winner as said by the management who rigged the game.
And in this sumo game, it's odd to see that games can be rigged or we're not just used to watch it because not all casinos got sumo books.

If that signal is valid, we can easily place the bet and select the right player. But unfortunately, that will not be easy to get the right information since many speculators will say that their choice will be the winner. Maybe the officials arrange who can win this season and who will be the winner for the next season because that can happen in any sports game. But yes, even if that sport getting rigged, we still need the luck to win because if we just that signal and place a big bet, we can have a chance to lose for some money.

[Oceat]

It can still be profitable if that's the case. Just pick which games and matches you wanna bet on that will at least give you the semblance that there's no foul play going on. You could always obviously see when the game is rigged anyway by observing the subtle behaviors and mannerisms dropped by each competitor. Use it to your advantage, and win games even when the odds are stacked against you.

Uhh... I think you can't do that on an ongoing match because I'm sure you are asked to place your bet first before each contestants fight in the ring. Even in other sports you can't guess that it's a rigged game until you notice some unusual behavior of each players towards the others. And I'm sure you already placed your bet before the fight started.

The only one who could ensure the price is the one that plans to rigged the whole game. It would take luck to win in this kind of game/sports but if you have someone from the inside that could tip you some information about of rigging the game, then consider yourself lucky.

[Joca97]

It has been said that Sumo, the Japanese fighting sport is not as clean as it should be. Apparently, in the maximum cathegory - short of a premier league - there is tendency to let win those who need to win in order to remain in that cathegory. This was studied and mentioned later on a book called Freakconomics.

An article here-

Do you feel that knowing that a sport may be rigged you could actually turn it in your favour?

First time i ever heard that you can bet on sumo . Wierd and to even rig it its insane. What sportsbooks offer this ?
Probobly only in japan or china this is available for betting.

[RealMalatesta]

if you know that the game is rigged and you have that go signal from those who are rigging the game then who needs luck right?

Yeah right but I would not do such things even if I know because in such cases where a game is rigged and later during enquiry they reveal then the bets are checked and unusual patterns are checked and then they trace the bettors. In case of crypto maybe you can get away because of the decentralized and anonymous nature of Bitcoins but still why take so much risks a few hundred bucks? Because no site will allow you to bet massive on unknown or small level events that are more prone to fixing.

In every sports this kind of activities are present, you just need to go deeper and know who are the people behind it to have a safer journey with your betting investment

Mate, are you seriously saying that one should do deep with fixing and all? I mean one can be jailed and penalized for such things because match-fixing is not a small offense.

[Rengga Jati]

and what if the match turns out to be just a setting to attract the audience? Indeed, we cannot escape if Sumo is one of the most popular matches and is used as a gambling game. However, this will not apply to those who do know about the fraud. And will there always be cheating in every match? Are all matches just fake spectacle?
Haha
Btw, I am not a fan of sumo match or even going to bet this.  But I am quite curious

[magneto]

That would just be completely stupid.

I actually remember reading freakonomics and Sumo being rigged as one of the subject matters that came up. But what makes you think that you are the one with the secret to betting in a rigged market?

The fact that a select few have insider information into the outcome of matches already mean that you are playing the game at a disadvantage - odds on the correct outcome are going to be artificially reduced given the knowledge that certain people have of the outcome. That significantly reduces your EV and your likelihood of winning in the long run.

It could be significant at mutual sportsbooks, but I'm not sure odds drastically change on regular sportsbooks for rigged games. Usually they keep their odds near the implied probability they already evaluated themselves and if they see unusual or unexpected betting behaviors they suspend or close the bets.

This makes absolutely zero sense.

If mutual sportsbooks or betting exchanges have their odds moved, then don't you think that other betting market makers (regular sportsbooks) would also change their odds to reflect the market price?

If not, then arbitrageurs would come in and arbitrage the situation such that the odds on the two markets even out somewhat.

The point is that regardless of where you're betting, a retail sportsbook or a sporting exchange, you're going to incur a substantial amount of negative EV if you bet on any rigged event without the insider knowledge.

[Saint-loup]

That would just be completely stupid.

I actually remember reading freakonomics and Sumo being rigged as one of the subject matters that came up. But what makes you think that you are the one with the secret to betting in a rigged market?

The fact that a select few have insider information into the outcome of matches already mean that you are playing the game at a disadvantage - odds on the correct outcome are going to be artificially reduced given the knowledge that certain people have of the outcome. That significantly reduces your EV and your likelihood of winning in the long run.

It could be significant at mutual sportsbooks, but I'm not sure odds drastically change on regular sportsbooks for rigged games. Usually they keep their odds near the implied probability they already evaluated themselves and if they see unusual or unexpected betting behaviors they suspend or close the bets.

This makes absolutely zero sense.

If mutual sportsbooks or betting exchanges have their odds moved, then don't you think that other betting market makers (regular sportsbooks) would also change their odds to reflect the market price?

If not, then arbitrageurs would come in and arbitrage the situation such that the odds on the two markets even out somewhat.

The point is that regardless of where you're betting, a retail sportsbook or a sporting exchange, you're going to incur a substantial amount of negative EV if you bet on any rigged event without the insider knowledge.

Have you often observed that personally? What you are saying seems to be purely theoretical, in reality if you look at mutual sportsbooks like freebitcoin or betting exchanges like betfair you will find big differences with other sportsbooks very oftentimes. IMO regular sportsbooks don't care of the odds on those sportsbooks, otherwise they could be manipulated by whales operating there.
Moreover cheaters have no interest to bet on mutual sportsbooks because they will lower the odds if they bet big amounts of money on one outcome.

[Betwrong]

There is no games in the world that are not rigged. It's just that few games are easy to rig than others. Sumo wrestling is definitely easier to rig than many other games because there are only two people who playes within the arena.

While I don't support fixing a match in any form or shape. You can still make good profit out of rigged game only if you have contacts with the right people. Otherwise you are doomed.

Well, you are not "doomed" actually. If there are only two possible outcomes, and you don't know which way the game is rigged, you can make a pick with your eyes closed and still have a 50/50 chance of winning. But then the game becomes purely luck-based, while normally sports betting is skill-based, at least partially. So, yeah, I would avoid betting on such events.

[peter0425]

It has been said that Sumo, the Japanese fighting sport is not as clean as it should be. Apparently, in the maximum cathegory - short of a premier league - there is tendency to let win those who need to win in order to remain in that cathegory. This was studied and mentioned later on a book called Freakconomics.

An article here-

Do you feel that knowing that a sport may be rigged you could actually turn it in your favour?

Japanese is one of the most trusted people in terms of Credibility , I don't know what is that articles motive but Sumo wrestling stands for the whole japanese community and not just for sports world .
so i believe that this wont be rigged as they will stand for what they believe is true.

[tomahawk9]

i'm a total noob in Sumo betting, but i've tried it a few times last year when there was literally nothing to bet on as most sporting events where cancelled, and honestly, i liked it, pretty chill type of restling, would definitely throw lunch money in some matches again

But it never occured to me that there could be some matchfixing involved as I know how strict japanese laws are (even their culture doesn't strike me as the type that would try this in such a traditional sport) and didn't think ppl would take the risk to try matchfixing, hell, betting in Japan is banned, so... Huh, i know a few Sumo related forums, but i may have to dig a little deeper online and see what i can find about rigged sumo matches, maybe there's an active sumo betting underworld somewhere in the depths of tokyo? sounds like it could be a fun journey (:

You can still make good profit out of rigged game only if you have contacts with the right people. Otherwise you are doomed.

you mean wrong people? cos the people doing this are crooks and will get you in troubles 

[michellee]

It has been said that Sumo, the Japanese fighting sport is not as clean as it should be. Apparently, in the maximum cathegory - short of a premier league - there is tendency to let win those who need to win in order to remain in that cathegory. This was studied and mentioned later on a book called Freakconomics.

Do you feel that knowing that a sport may be rigged you could actually turn it in your favour?

Japanese is one of the most trusted people in terms of Credibility , I don't know what is that articles motive but Sumo wrestling stands for the whole japanese community and not just for sports world .
so i believe that this wont be rigged as they will stand for what they believe is true.

Japanese is one of the countries who really strict with loyalty and honor, so if the sport is getting rigged by some people or officials and the officer or the authorities found that thing, maybe they will investigate deeper to search who is behind it. They will punish that corrupt official and will not tolerate it. Sumo is their sport and popular in Japan, so we do not know if Sumo is getting rigged or not.

[Obito]

Even with the rigged games we need luck to win. We can make sure of the winner, but the same won't happen with every series. Based on the article it seems like, every season a particular player is selected to make a win. Maybe the one who is watching the sumo fights for a long term can make the perfect prediction based on the popularity over a period of time.

If the cheating/rigging in the matches are too ingrained and the players already know their roles then probably luck isn't needed to win in this match since we know that there is already a fixed winner in the match and knowing who will win is a big advantage, that's why people rig games because they know how profitable and how easy it is.

[Fredomago]

In every sports this kind of activities are present, you just need to go deeper and know who are the people behind it to have a safer journey with your betting investment

Mate, are you seriously saying that one should do deep with fixing and all? I mean one can be jailed and penalized for such things because match-fixing is not a small offense.

Sorry my bad mate, I understand your point legally and it's really a big offense once you've been caught doing this. Best not to engage with any kind of this activities.

If you don't have that nerve and you are not willing to take the big risk best to play and enjoy whatever sports you choose, your engagements and experienced will guide you up know how to control and balance everything.

Again, there's no good in participating with such kind of underground things inside sports gambling, the risk is far higher than

ordinary gamble, you only think with your money and nothing else.

[Betwrong]

~

You can still make good profit out of rigged game only if you have contacts with the right people. Otherwise you are doomed.

you mean wrong people? cos the people doing this are crooks and will get you in troubles 

That's a good observation. Indeed, in the course of our discussion we are forgetting one very important thing: those people are outlaws. If you win money with their help, it's not the end of story for you, it never is. By doing business with them you become kind of tied up with them, and getting rid of them can be much more difficult than it seems.

It's better lose your bet because the game was rigged than win it "benefiting" from such contacts.

[Saint-loup]

i'm a total noob in Sumo betting, but i've tried it a few times last year when there was literally nothing to bet on as most sporting events where cancelled, and honestly, i liked it, pretty chill type of restling, would definitely throw lunch money in some matches again

But it never occured to me that there could be some matchfixing involved as I know how strict japanese laws are (even their culture doesn't strike me as the type that would try this in such a traditional sport) and didn't think ppl would take the risk to try matchfixing, hell, betting in Japan is banned, so... Huh, i know a few Sumo related forums, but i may have to dig a little deeper online and see what i can find about rigged sumo matches, maybe there's an active sumo betting underworld somewhere in the depths of tokyo? sounds like it could be a fun journey (:

You can still make good profit out of rigged game only if you have contacts with the right people. Otherwise you are doomed.

you mean wrong people? cos the people doing this are crooks and will get you in troubles  

That's a really good news tomahawk9!  Please tell us which sportsbook did you use please, because nobody knows one sportsbook offering markets on this sport since many years and many of us would be glad to be able to bet on sumo wrestling matches and to follow the championship. Did your sportsbook offer live streams of the fights too?

[rhomelmabini]

Might be profitable to those who knew what it could be rigged or those who knew where to bet. Never been into this kind of betting but I think it's much of a theory as well with what others seems to think on other sports event.

[swogerino]

Every sport can be rigged and let me give you the best example in the world.Some years ago in World Cup or Euro don't remember well there were in the same group Italy,Sweden and Denmark.The destiny wanted that if Denmark and Sweden ended in a draw with some goals they would both qualify and Italy would have been eliminated.

Guess what,the game between Denmark vs Sweden ended 2-2 and the odd for a draw was the lowest in history at 1.75 at that time.

[Saint-loup]

Japanese is one of the most trusted people in terms of Credibility , I don't know what is that articles motive but Sumo wrestling stands for the whole japanese community and not just for sports world .
so i believe that this wont be rigged as they will stand for what they believe is true.

Don't tell BS bro, japanese mafia exists and is well known all over the world, everybody has ever heard of the famous Yakuza. There is mafia and criminality in Japan like in every country, japanese people are humans and are not above the other human beings, you shouldn't sanctify them like that IMO. Sumo wrestling is a well known rigged sport, every punter know it and that's why sportsbooks don't offer markets on sumo tournaments since many years. It's a small and closed universe where only few new fighters can enter, mostly japanese or asian, all fighters know each other very well and are close friends.

[Betwrong]

Every sport can be rigged and let me give you the best example in the world.Some years ago in World Cup or Euro don't remember well there were in the same group Italy,Sweden and Denmark.The destiny wanted that if Denmark and Sweden ended in a draw with some goals they would both qualify and Italy would have been eliminated.

Guess what,the game between Denmark vs Sweden ended 2-2 and the odd for a draw was the lowest in history at 1.75 at that time.

But I wouldn't call that particular game rigged, tbh. Normally in a rigged game the final outcome is unexpected. That's why they rig them: to win with high odds. In the game between Denmark vs Sweden the outcome was pretty predictable. No wonder the odds were 1.75 for a draw.

[Cling18]

I know that Japanese are one of the most honest people in the world and it's part of their culture. But there really is the chance that a sumo game can be rigged but talking as if I'm sure of it, I can't stand with that as I have never bet with any sumo match.

By the way, in which common sports book we can see sumo wrestling matches to bet on?

They are honest people but in sports like this, rigging is always possible.
We don't know the combination of people involved in this sport, and there will always be a bad apple in the group.
Haven't really followed this sport, so maybe if you are familiar with the players and how they perform, you can spot if something is wrong with the match.

Yes, that could actually happen in any sports regardless of their culture unless you know completely how the Sumo players move in every match. It's fun to watch Sumo but always expect that there are chances of rigging the match. We should keep in mind that some players and members of the organization just focus on money.