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Author Topic: Betting to Risk Free Fights  (Read 1294 times)
hahay
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June 08, 2021, 10:00:41 AM
 #61

I'm aware betting on any fight will always carry a risk but yes, sometimes we will assume the risk is lost when the athlete fighting has some of the better records. But believe me, it's just an analysis that still doesn't guarantee we will win when betting for him and for that reason too, I assume all bets will definitely have a risk even though it is an odds that is only 1.01 but still has a risk in it because I've experienced reality bitter like that.

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June 09, 2021, 09:32:12 AM
 #62

Is there even such a thing as a risk-free fight? I mean, both fighters are going to meet each other because they are still a match regardless of the fact that one of them is a favorite and the other underdog.

Exactly what I have in mind when I saw the caption,
For me there is no such thing as risk free fights when it is an official match because it wouldn't be accepted if their gap is too far from each other.
Even if someone is underdog on the eyes of the people that underdog could still win
Most times underdogs turn out with surprising performances or win with a slim chance he had this doesn't neget the fact that fact that risk free fights does not exist. I know this can't be classified as a risk free fight because the margin isn't much and we should expect lots of surprises from both the kids to fighters. I feel none of them should be neglected because this would be one of those matches that comes with heart treatened surprises
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June 09, 2021, 09:52:11 AM
 #63

I'm aware betting on any fight will always carry a risk but yes, sometimes we will assume the risk is lost when the athlete fighting has some of the better records. But believe me, it's just an analysis that still doesn't guarantee we will win when betting for him and for that reason too, I assume all bets will definitely have a risk even though it is an odds that is only 1.01 but still has a risk in it because I've experienced reality bitter like that.
There will always be a risk in betting, remember that an upset or a miracle can happen and you bet is lost because the one that was expected to win got destroyed by a miracle upset or something. The odds doesn't mean it's risky, it just a way to attract players, in the end it's all a 50/50 if the matchup is even.

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June 09, 2021, 03:51:29 PM
 #64

I'm aware betting on any fight will always carry a risk but yes, sometimes we will assume the risk is lost when the athlete fighting has some of the better records. But believe me, it's just an analysis that still doesn't guarantee we will win when betting for him and for that reason too, I assume all bets will definitely have a risk even though it is an odds that is only 1.01 but still has a risk in it because I've experienced reality bitter like that.

Maybe, but there's a lot of things that we should include other than good records.

Having a good records doesn't guarantee you always a win, things could escalate quickly anytime, so expect the unexpected. Another thing is if a match is rigged, then there's no way we could assure ourselves a win just because we bet on the fighter that has a good record, we don't know who is in favor with the judges. And the last thing of course is the records of both players, that should be the last thing we should consider, just my opinion.
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June 11, 2021, 05:00:07 PM
 #65

Would you be able to decide which fight could be risk free that you will bet your weekly pay despite the small odd like 1.50

In a MMA fight, 1.50 odds is not a small for me. Remember that MMA is obviously a 1 on 1 match and upset always happened here. I'm only considering 1.50 odds as fairly small in terms of a team match like basketball.

But in general, you can't even consider below 1.5 as risk-free odds. It's even more risky as you will put some decent bet here just to feel the profits.

The fight is now over and Jairzinho Rozenstruik did a TKO 1st round win. Do you managed to bet on a 1.50 odds here, OP?
This is an important point, odds are relative to the games being played, in a full-contact sport in which anything can happen and a single punch or kick can be more than enough to change the outcome of a fight or even something as simple as not being able to reach the right weight of the division and spend a lot of time trying to lose that weight means the difference in the stamina between the fighters is going to be huge, while in team games even a drastic injury of a star player is not enough to completely change the outcome of most games.

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June 11, 2021, 05:07:37 PM
 #66

When it comes to betting always on favorites. These things are bit informative to read.
https://www.bettingbilly.com/us/sports-betting/types/betting-favorites/
https://efirbet.com/en/betting-guide/betting-on-the-favourite/
https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/public-underdog/#gref

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June 11, 2021, 05:50:37 PM
 #67

The tape tells a whole different story,  height, weight you name it but when it comes to boxing they say age gives you an edge so does height and then we have odds that have being weighed in by the bookies who are usually wrong as well,so that 1.5 is small for me to risk my money on the match.

Just some advice avoid wagering on favorites these usually turn to be headaches as the underdog always puts up a good fight.

R


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June 11, 2021, 05:59:58 PM
 #68


As I understand these articles are paid by bookmakers?  Grin
Betting on favorites is the most unprofitable and the bookmaker plans most of its profits here. Unlike bets on favorites, bets on underdogs are less likely to win, but in them the bookmaker's advantage is less than in bets on favorites.

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June 11, 2021, 08:41:35 PM
 #69

Would you be able to decide which fight could be risk free that you will bet your weekly pay despite the small odd like 1.50 or would you still rethink if there is an upset like Weili Zhang and Rose Namajunas.  

How about Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai, is this a risk free fight to you?



Jairzinho Rozenstruik by the way is the one that did the nasty cuts to Allistair's mouth.


It's funny that you consider a bet at 1.5 to be "risk free", however I have personally encountered several bets (in-play) at around the 1.05 to 1.01 offered by the bookmaker go against me. I don't think any sensible person should be betting a weeks pay unless they have a substantial safety net and savings that make it insignificant. You must at all times remember that you are at a information disadvantage against sportbooks because they have a long history to analyze, lots of technology to "crunch the numbers" and can fine tune their odds fairly quickly as new data becomes available (aka the golden player gets ill).  You can build tools that are able to crowd source and look for weaknesses in calculated odds, but that requires substantial investment in various forms.

R


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June 11, 2021, 09:25:12 PM
 #70


As I understand these articles are paid by bookmakers?  Grin
Betting on favorites is the most unprofitable and the bookmaker plans most of its profits here. Unlike bets on favorites, bets on underdogs are less likely to win, but in them the bookmaker's advantage is less than in bets on favorites.
Well, that is indeed right.
Not all underdogs in favorites are low chances of winning, most likely to they are able to win. There are some tricks of bookmakers that they only know just to gain profit from the bettors. It is just a bookmaker that offers risk-free and it should be your odds will get on that range and I think 1.4 odds or something will be profitable in the future. But when it comes to the fight, that is still unpredictable.









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June 11, 2021, 11:51:07 PM
 #71


As I understand these articles are paid by bookmakers?  Grin
Betting on favorites is the most unprofitable and the bookmaker plans most of its profits here. Unlike bets on favorites, bets on underdogs are less likely to win, but in them the bookmaker's advantage is less than in bets on favorites.
Well, that is indeed right.
Not all underdogs in favorites are low chances of winning, most likely to they are able to win. There are some tricks of bookmakers that they only know just to gain profit from the bettors. It is just a bookmaker that offers risk-free and it should be your odds will get on that range and I think 1.4 odds or something will be profitable in the future. But when it comes to the fight, that is still unpredictable.

Its a fight so there is no way you would know the result. David and Goliath's fight is just an example of it being unpredictable but when the history of the fighters is going to be analyzed, it's always the underdog that loses the fight.

Today is a fight between Adesanya vs Vettori 2. And Adesanya still if the Top dog making him the safe bet. Its not about the odds but its the skills that makes it risk free.



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June 11, 2021, 11:59:19 PM
 #72


As I understand these articles are paid by bookmakers?  Grin
Betting on favorites is the most unprofitable and the bookmaker plans most of its profits here. Unlike bets on favorites, bets on underdogs are less likely to win, but in them the bookmaker's advantage is less than in bets on favorites.
Well, that is indeed right.
Not all underdogs in favorites are low chances of winning, most likely to they are able to win. There are some tricks of bookmakers that they only know just to gain profit from the bettors. It is just a bookmaker that offers risk-free and it should be your odds will get on that range and I think 1.4 odds or something will be profitable in the future. But when it comes to the fight, that is still unpredictable.
Everything is unpredictable except if bookmaker itself does have those insider infos about fixed matches but we know that its impossible to determine these events.

When it comes to profitability then its understandable thats unprofitable on their part when people are really tending to go with the favorites since that would surely be adding on paying up more bettors unlike if people would really be betting on the underdogs.

Being a bookie isnt an exemption to lose out income this is why giving out odds should really be planned out to avoid possible paying up too much.

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June 12, 2021, 07:21:45 AM
 #73

There are a lot of different odds given on the match depends on the number of the bets and also the developers themselves, sometimes the gamblers always trying to bet to the opponent who has the lowest winning odds because base on common bets this is the most players thinks will win the game. Again it's better we don't underestimate the underdogs sometimes they can make a miracle comeback and winning the game. Those players or gamblers also called this bet as YOLO, just the common meaning you are willing to risk or double your funds.

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June 12, 2021, 10:22:38 AM
 #74

Everything is unpredictable except if bookmaker itself does have those insider infos about fixed matches but we know that its impossible to determine these events.

When it comes to profitability then its understandable thats unprofitable on their part when people are really tending to go with the favorites since that would surely be adding on paying up more bettors unlike if people would really be betting on the underdogs.

Being a bookie isnt an exemption to lose out income this is why giving out odds should really be planned out to avoid possible paying up too much.

To a certain extent, the bookmaker simply does not care about the result of the match and how accurately he assessed the teams' chances - the most important thing is that the "balance" of people who made bets on different outcomes corresponds to the odds. It's like betting on a coin toss - if an equal number of people have bet on each outcome, then at odds of 1.95, the bookmaker will always win.

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June 12, 2021, 11:22:25 AM
 #75

There are a lot of different odds given on the match depends on the number of the bets and also the developers themselves, sometimes the gamblers always trying to bet to the opponent who has the lowest winning odds because base on common bets this is the most players thinks will win the game. Again it's better we don't underestimate the underdogs sometimes they can make a miracle comeback and winning the game. Those players or gamblers also called this bet as YOLO, just the common meaning you are willing to risk or double your funds.
But I kept asking myself why higher odd fighter wins match sometimes, in individual fighting, a fighter with slim body is liable to lose every match sometimes the case is reverse, does it mean the bigger body fighter looses control and feel anxious that moment maybe some sort of family problem hat came up at the time match is fixed, because on a normal ground, it's impossible for a slim fighter should win the other. I will rather make research before risking my bet on a fighter.
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June 12, 2021, 01:20:44 PM
 #76

There is no such thing as a risk free bets. All bets that you place has risks. It's either high risk or low risk. High risks will have higher rewards and vice versa. That is how it works. Look at the odds of the fight you are talking about. I am sure the odds of the winning team has lower payout. It's all based on probabilities using various data/statistics (previous records and so on). So it might look like a "risk free bet" for you, but there will always be a small chance where you will lose everything you placed on the bet.

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June 12, 2021, 01:39:43 PM
 #77

There's no such thing as a risk-free fight if you are going to the ring you are fit and capable of winning you are trained to hurt your opponent, defend yourself and do whatever you need to win, that is why we have a thing called upset and bettors should not disregard upsets its part of the game, we have seen so many upsets in the past and let's admit it we love to see upsets.

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June 12, 2021, 06:28:41 PM
 #78

Indeed, there is no such fight as "Risk free"
You have to understand that if a player wins even 1000 times there is not 100% probability that he will win the next time. There will always be odds that you might not be able to analyze right now.
-I will bet for fight ofc but would not set it in my mind that I am going to win 100%
-Whenever I would bet, I know that what I am doing is risky -I would only consider doing it, if I am economically stable , not because someone in the Gambling section feels that we have something called "risk free" bets.
This is a mere delusion.
It can give you good odds but never 100% wins everytime.

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June 12, 2021, 06:38:28 PM
 #79

There's no such thing as a risk-free fight if you are going to the ring you are fit and capable of winning you are trained to hurt your opponent, defend yourself and do whatever you need to win, that is why we have a thing called upset and bettors should not disregard upsets its part of the game, we have seen so many upsets in the past and let's admit it we love to see upsets.
Upsets can really possibly happen from time to time and when you are a bettor then not all favorites would really be having 100% to win.
If you do know on how to check out teams and possible events or switch ups or players cant play or some turn of events specially on team based sports
then you can really determine out on which would be the best thing to be done.Same goes for single matches where there are several factors that you
can consider before heading out.

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June 12, 2021, 07:02:55 PM
 #80

risk-free bet is an oxymoron.
but if you have enough information it can be a sort of risk-free.
mostly of you need is not related to the match but to certain condition "externally".
I have placed awesome bet (team going in a lower series) when it was unofficial bankrupted and in a very bad position in the league.

There was a local news saying that this team was selling the bench and buses.
It was clear they was unable to join again the same league (literally failure, restart from the scratch). Nice experience but such events happens around few times each year and are very hard to be detected Sad

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/// PLAY FOR  FREE  ///
WIN FOR REAL
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