JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas

[Moreno233]

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Idea Outline

This is a scientific study based on data and facts.

Sir, I'll keep it short;

Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

You have a point Woez but I don't know if JJG will think in that direction but should he consider that option and post it in Amazon, I'm sure there are many people who will need the wealth of knowledge to start up their Bitcoin investment and I will not mind spending few dollars to get it because I still cherish the tradition hardcopy, it gives a different feeling. Besides, when I spend money on anything, no matter how small the money is, I will cherish it more.

The beautiful thing about the ideas shared here is that they can be applied to many other businesses, not only Bitcoin so a lot of people will find the material very helpful in their business and investing. How I wish I have the privilege of seeing something like this five years ago, I know where I would have been by now in my Bitcoin accumulation.

[Hamza2424]

There is nothing wrong with trying to consider fees and trying to save on fees, so in the beginning we might be trying to search out ways to buy bitcoin and to minimize the amount of fees that we are paying, and the longer that we are in bitcoin, we may well hold our bitcoin in various kinds of locations so that we have options in regards to our transferring, transacting and/or sending of coins.  Fees will be different in different locations, and surely during times when fees are seeming to be high everywhere, then we might not want to transact, yet we also might want to consider how we might avoid putting ourselves in sucha position that we do not have options.

Yep, fee can be pain in the ass but if we have to pay then pay, but there is absolutely nothing wrong in considering ways to save more and that's what I do, I guess we all do, maybe some rich dude won't think about it and to be honest I am that poor guy who also don't think about fee that much haha.

As I said if I have to move funds and it is necessary then paying the fee is the only option there is nothing we can work around this, anyway we can wait for the congestion to decrease but if we have to do it on time, then we do what it takes.

In your opinion how much we can save from bitcoin transaction fee, if it is normal to high, we can only wait them to become normal again, this is the only way to save.

[JayJuanGee]

There is nothing wrong with trying to consider fees and trying to save on fees, so in the beginning we might be trying to search out ways to buy bitcoin and to minimize the amount of fees that we are paying, and the longer that we are in bitcoin, we may well hold our bitcoin in various kinds of locations so that we have options in regards to our transferring, transacting and/or sending of coins.  Fees will be different in different locations, and surely during times when fees are seeming to be high everywhere, then we might not want to transact, yet we also might want to consider how we might avoid putting ourselves in sucha position that we do not have options.

Yep, fee can be pain in the ass but if we have to pay then pay, but there is absolutely nothing wrong in considering ways to save more and that's what I do, I guess we all do, maybe some rich dude won't think about it and to be honest I am that poor guy who also don't think about fee that much haha.

As I said if I have to move funds and it is necessary then paying the fee is the only option there is nothing we can work around this, anyway we can wait for the congestion to decrease but if we have to do it on time, then we do what it takes.

In your opinion how much we can save from bitcoin transaction fee, if it is normal to high, we can only wait them to become normal again, this is the only way to save.

Like you suggest, there may be some personality type that relates to how we consider fees.  I recall that I considered fees a lot more in my earliest years of bitcoin, since I was keeping track and wanting to keep my costs down, yet as my bitcoin became more and more profitable, I became less worried about fees. 

Also if we are buying and/or selling, we need to consider fees.  I recall in my earliest times in bitcoin, i would sometimes give away bitcoin, or maybe I would try to find ways to spend my bitcoin, yet my bitcoin were quite constantly in the negative for my first few years in bitcoin, between late 2013 and even up to early 2017 for some of my earlier purchases were still in the negative.

Much of that time, whenever I spent or gave away bitcoin, I would spend and replace, so I largely wanted to account for any fees to make sure that I was getting back at least the same as I spent, and perhaps even a bit more than what I spent. since my goal back then was to make sure that my bitcoin holdings were always growing (each month or whatever period of time that I would be taking snapshot measurements).

So there sometimes can be ways to attempt to gamify our accumulation of bitcoin by our ways of keeping track what we are doing and perhaps figuring out ways that we might be able to improve what we are doing.  I had several times told the story of my running out of money in early 2015 (when BTC prices were quite low - BTC prices were around mid $200s for most of 2015), and there were a few months that I was not able to buy any bitcoin.. mostly between late January 2025 until around May or so (although I had a couple of small purchases in that time), yet when I got back into buying, I still was not able to buy very much but I tried to make it a priority, so if I had $20 extra come in, then I would allocate half to buying bitcoin.. which was pretty much the case for me between about May 2015 and late 2015.. and even into 2016, even though in 2016 some of my cashflow matters were largely resolving themselves.   

Now many of us think back at those times (such as almost a whole year where bitcoin prices were in the mid $200s), and it was funny how not very many people were paying attention or buying bitcoin, so even if I was somehow able to generate an extra $250 of income, then maybe i could dedicate half of that (such as $125) towards buying bitcoin, and that would have had gotten me half of a bitcoin for $125, and yeah, I was not able to do that for very long, and so yeah, there can be challenges whenever we might have cashflow problems, but we can still try to figure out how to prioritize buying bitcoin and even trying to make a game out of it.

Similar to those days, guys can think about how many Satoshis they are able to buy right now, and surely in late 2022, there was quite a bit of time that guys could buy 5,000 satoshis for a dollar. 

These days, a dollar ONLY buys around 800 to 900 satoshis... That is a pretty BIG difference between now and 2022, and maybe we won't really realize what we are able to get today as being valuable until we are 10 years later down the road, and then we realize how lucky that we had been to be able to accumulate a lot of satoshis without having to pay as much as they likely will cost in the future (of course, no guarantees, either).

[MrNata]

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement. If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

You replied to an old post bro, anyway, it is really difficult to have an idea about the change that is going to take place in the market, and that's why those who find it hard to predict the next move in short term, they can at least predict it in the long term and they buy as hodlers, I agree our profits won't be that high, if we have bought one time, we should not sell them and keep accumulating more and more until our targets achieves.

Speaking of fee that does not matter when you are holding long term just try not to increase the input data otherwise, you might have to pay a higher fee when you want to move them, last time I had to move them, the congestion was too high and my input data as well, I had to pay a high fee. Anyway, keep learning bro, holding is the best play out there.

I think it is an example of a smart investor to think about transaction fees. In the case of trading, you have to buy and sell Bitcoin repeatedly, so some amount of transaction fee will be required for buying and selling. Although the amount of this transaction fee may seem small to us for each separate transaction, but if we combine all these fees, we will see that we have paid a lot of money only for transaction fees. Those who invest and hold do not actually waste this transaction fee in one way. We can use another strategy to save transaction fees, such as we can do Mempool observation and when Bitcoin's transaction fee is relatively low, we can input Bitcoin and we can use SegWit for transactions, which can reduce transaction fees by a lot.

Many people may have a misconception about holding that holding means never selling again.  
Long-term investment means buying Bitcoin and holding it for a long time, a long time frame can be three years, four years, five years or more. In short, when our analysis shows that we have made enough profit by holding Bitcoin for a long time and we should take this profit, we should plan to sell the investment and start again.

In 2017, many investors missed out on a lot of profit and the same thing happened in 2021, so we should learn from these past experiences and be careful. In 2019, we saw the Bitcoin market dumping from $1,979 to $3,156, and again in 2021, we saw the Bitcoin market dumping from $69,000 to $15,476.


Screenshots from Binance

[vapourminer]

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Idea Outline

This is a scientific study based on data and facts.

Sir, I'll keep it short;

Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

methinks the info changes too much for something as static as a printed book.

[Hamza2424]

These days, a dollar ONLY buys around 800 to 900 satoshis... That is a pretty BIG difference between now and 2022, and maybe we won't really realize what we are able to get today as being valuable until we are 10 years later down the road, and then we realize how lucky that we had been to be able to accumulate a lot of satoshis without having to pay as much as they likely will cost in the future (of course, no guarantees, either).

I see you, there is not doubt that a single satoshi can make huge difference in the future there were times people were buying and selling 1 whole bitcoin when it was not too expensive and they regret now that why they traded why they have not bought it for long term. The same way we must save as much satoshis as we can because later in the future we don't know how they will turn out for us.

Maybe the 100$ bitcoins we get today can make us more in the future and it can be 10x of what we have today speaking of that time would you still hold that day or sell it that day when you will have make 10x from the current price.

We must save as much as we can nowadays fees can be really high and we can use that funds to buy more instead of wasting our satoshis on high fees.

[Merit.s]

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Idea Outline

This is a scientific study based on data and facts.

Sir, I'll keep it short;

Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

methinks the info changes too much for something as static as a printed book.

Exactly, JJG is always coming to this thread to edit and add some important information based on his current experience of the topic. Putting it in a book becomes difficult for editing and the book will lack those new information added to this thread from time to time by the OP.

I love it the way it's in the forum because you don't need to pay a dime to have access to what the thread contains. The information on this forum is more than reading books because you have the privilege to talk to the OP directly and ask questions to get more advice on your bitcoin investment journey.

[Dogedegen]

Sure, at any particular point when I publish a new table, within that table, you have me locking in my projections of the 200-WMA for the future 120 years, yet my projections likely change each time that I update the table based on how much the 200-WMA had moved from the previous time and any of my new thinking about the extent to which I might want to change the future numbers.

As long as we archive the current version what I have proposed is doable. Any way it will be nice to see how much your revisions will differ from original projections too!

Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

methinks the info changes too much for something as static as a printed book.

Exactly...

neither is a book a summary of something lol

[AVE5]

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Idea Outline

This is a scientific study based on data and facts.

Sir, I'll keep it short;

Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

You have a point Woez but I don't know if JJG will think in that direction but should he consider that option and post it in Amazon, I'm sure there are many people who will need the wealth of knowledge to start up their Bitcoin investment and I will not mind spending few dollars to get it because I still cherish the tradition hardcopy, it gives a different feeling. Besides, when I spend money on anything, no matter how small the money is, I will cherish it more.

The beautiful thing about the ideas shared here is that they can be applied to many other businesses, not only Bitcoin so a lot of people will find the material very helpful in their business and investing. How I wish I have the privilege of seeing something like this five years ago, I know where I would have been by now in my Bitcoin accumulation.

Sir JJG might actually be someone who prefers to  share informations through by conversing and as tips of investment advise maybe imply in this context, he probably may tend to get others views in regards to his investment techniques. But I won't lie, it'll draw some what animations for the readers especially for those who finds it difficult to read articles with electronics and devices but comfortable reading on hard copy likethe books. I think the essence of this project will serve exceedingly if the material can be accessed both online and offline to consider readability and also would be avenues to promote the content.

[bitmover]

Maybe there could be some way of creating the visualization that you imagine without involving too much work, and sure I am not against something like that if it is not too labor intense to try to make and/or to maintain such a thing.. and as I already mentioned, I have not even been updating my own predictions every 6 months on the website since I cannot even figure out how to do it, even though on my Excel spreadsheet, I update it fairly regularly. .and then lock in the numbers every 6 months so that my attempt to predict the next 6 months will go from the part that is locked in rather than having somewhat outdated data (even if the data might be off by only 10% or less, that level of difference between prior prediction and current projections forward can make quite a large impact several years out, unless there is some kind of change in the future data to cause the wrong future projection to revert back to the mean, which surely could end up happening if we are looking out at a long enough time horizon. .we might have some crazy ass up or down movement, but then several months or maybe even a year or more, we might end up having some crazy ass move that is opposite to the prior crazy ass move that ends up causing the whole thing to appear as a kind of wash, and even allows the earlier prediction to still end up being correct, even though there was a period of time that it was a bit out of kilter in one direction or the other...

To visualize the difference is minimal effort really I think, to generate a chart from one CSV data set is pretty straightforward. Initially to make it look nice if it is going to be combined with all other metrics it could take a bit of effort but other than that it is a very small amount of work. I will do it in Excel myself if bitmover does not want to do for any reason, no problem at all.  

I made a small addition to the chart

Now, you can download all past data in CSV, just clicking this button to the right



This is how the CSV looks like

Code:

Date;Stash Evolution
10/04/2020;12
10/05/2020;12
10/06/2020;12
10/07/2020;12
10/08/2020;11.95
10/09/2020;11.95
10/10/2020;11.95
10/11/2020;11.95
10/12/2020;11.95
10/13/2020;11.95
10/14/2020;11.95
10/15/2020;11.95
10/16/2020;11.95
10/17/2020;11.95
10/18/2020;11.95
10/19/2020;11.95
10/20/2020;11.95
10/21/2020;11.95

I added this feature to all 3 charts, so you can download also the stash evolution chart data.

Excel might have some problems opening the csv, but the data is ok
Use Notepad if you have problems with excel

Clear cache (ALT F5)
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

[PremiumcryptoHub]

Please clarify when you actually sell bitcoin so you can profit.
What are your sell parameters and have any of them been met since you started buying btc or have you only held and never sold?
Just Curious.  

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

It is difficult to have an idea about every change in the market and it takes a lot of time, so I think that buying Bitcoin and keeping it for a long time is a good idea, so an investor does not have to spend a lot of time thinking about the changes in the market movement.

Maybe that's right, Analyzing market changes requires in-depth research, so although the market change pattern seems simple at first glance, it takes a long time but due to the availability of technology, it may be possible to get real-time updates, but to analyze the market well, we may have to be aware of the market volatility and you should have an idea about the impact of market changes. There are also other ways to look at price patterns.

If we have such an idea that we will sell, buy again, buy again, sell again, then our profit will not be very high, so we should hold on to them without paying multiple trading fees and set a specific time so that the investor can sell his investment after a certain time or after a certain profit.

There are transaction times and strategies that should be understood. if you buy and sell once, and buy and sell again, the transaction fee will definitely increase, therefore if we can combine and coordinate multiple transactions when investing in the long term, then the fee amount will be much more affordable, meaning this process can help a lot. Moreover investing in Bitcoin for the long term may definitely result in additional cost savings for everyone, because if someone just buys and holds it and doesn't move it for a many times, they will also have to pay less for each transfer, therefore if the process adopted results in fewer exchange, the total fee amount will definitely be lower.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I think it is an example of a smart investor to think about transaction fees. In the case of trading, you have to buy and sell Bitcoin repeatedly, so some amount of transaction fee will be required for buying and selling. Although the amount of this transaction fee may seem small to us for each separate transaction, but if we combine all these fees, we will see that we have paid a lot of money only for transaction fees. Those who invest and hold do not actually waste this transaction fee in one way. We can use another strategy to save transaction fees, such as we can do Mempool observation and when Bitcoin's transaction fee is relatively low, we can input Bitcoin and we can use SegWit for transactions, which can reduce transaction fees by a lot.

Many people may have a misconception about holding that holding means never selling again.  
Long-term investment means buying Bitcoin and holding it for a long time, a long time frame can be three years, four years, five years or more. In short, when our analysis shows that we have made enough profit by holding Bitcoin for a long time and we should take this profit, we should plan to sell the investment and start again.

In 2017, many investors missed out on a lot of profit and the same thing happened in 2021, so we should learn from these past experiences and be careful. In 2019, we saw the Bitcoin market dumping from $1,979 to $3,156, and again in 2021, we saw the Bitcoin market dumping from $69,000 to $15,476.


Screenshots from Binance

You seem to be overly focused on dumps that may or may not happen, MrNata.

If you are trying to invest in bitcoin rather trading as you mentioned, then you are likely to be better of if you are trying to accumulate bitcoin through ongoing buying rather than thinking about possible dumps that may or may not happen... even if you get to a point that you have a lot of bitcoin, you likely need to consider how you might maintain your bitcoin holdings without overly worrying about dumps that may or may not happen.

You have ONLY been registered on the forum since early 2024, so I have difficulties imagining very many scenarios in which you might have had been able to accumulate enough or more than enough bitcoin, unless you really were able to front load your bitcoin investment, but still that may well put your holdings at 2x to 3x profits, at best.

Sure it is possible that you got into bitcoin prior to your registration on the forum, yet you should realize that selling is not a great way to accumulate bitcoin, if that is what you might be hinting at with your ongoing focus on down that may or may not happen..

These days, a dollar ONLY buys around 800 to 900 satoshis... That is a pretty BIG difference between now and 2022, and maybe we won't really realize what we are able to get today as being valuable until we are 10 years later down the road, and then we realize how lucky that we had been to be able to accumulate a lot of satoshis without having to pay as much as they likely will cost in the future (of course, no guarantees, either).

I see you, there is not doubt that a single satoshi can make huge difference in the future there were times people were buying and selling 1 whole bitcoin when it was not too expensive and they regret now that why they traded why they have not bought it for long term. The same way we must save as much satoshis as we can because later in the future we don't know how they will turn out for us.

Maybe the 100$ bitcoins we get today can make us more in the future and it can be 10x of what we have today speaking of that time would you still hold that day or sell it that day when you will have make 10x from the current price.

We must save as much as we can nowadays fees can be really high and we can use that funds to buy more instead of wasting our satoshis on high fees.

You are thinking pretty small if you think that bitcoin merely has around 10x of UP from today's prices as its addressable market.

I would imagine that bitcoin's addressable market s more than $1 quadrillion, which would be close to 500x from today's prices (market cap), even though it could take 50 to 200 years or more to get to such status.. perhaps?

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

JJG's Bitcoin Investment Idea Outline

This is a scientific study based on data and facts.
Sir, I'll keep it short;
Why don't you write it down and summarize it all in a book so we can read it.

methinks the info changes too much for something as static as a printed book.

Exactly, JJG is always coming to this thread to edit and add some important information based on his current experience of the topic. Putting it in a book becomes difficult for editing and the book will lack those new information added to this thread from time to time by the OP.

I love it the way it's in the forum because you don't need to pay a dime to have access to what the thread contains. The information on this forum is more than reading books because you have the privilege to talk to the OP directly and ask questions to get more advice on your bitcoin investment journey.

As you mention, a book has a different dynamic from thread and forum interactions, and frequently many of us will post in faily informal ways, and sometimes there can be frustration with the lack of substance - yet at the same time, we are able to interact with the contents, which has the potential to help with the learning process.

[ZeroVinsonN]

The amount of information here is mind blowing, I'm not too sure about actually being able to completely go through everything but I will definitely try😅😅. It's all just too educational though going through all the factors that could potentially affect whether or not a person will choose to invest in bitcoin and how fast they can invest if the actually decide to invest, without proper understanding of the role these factors can play in an investor who is still in a decision making stage, granted this factors vary from individual to individual as we all have different ways we process and evaluate risks and opportunities we encounter, proper understanding of what works for us as individuals will ultimately play a role on how we go about our bitcoin investment plans and where we go from there.

With any thread there may well be repetition and information that is not very well organized, since the various posts are put together in differing times, and even the way that I wrote the opening posts, they left room for updating, yet some areas I did not update and/or I did not add the information that I had been originally considering that I was going to add..

There surely can be ways to present information in more simplified ways, and so each of us has our own style, and some people might be better served in their getting information in other ways.. or even more basic ways.. and sure there are likely threads and/or posts that attempt to present information in even more basic ways. 

Even though I have a lot of discussion points in my posts, I repeatedly tend to emphasize getting started and self-learning, so surely there may be some irony that I talk about so many things that we can and/or should consider when we are investing in bitcoin and while we are strengthening our cashflow management systems/practices, yet at the same time, I am also trying to emphasize the value that folks get started and tailor their own practices to their individual circumstances, so if we get started and we are building our bitcoin stash and strengthening our cashflow management systems/practices, then we likely have to continue to adapt.. so that even as our bitcoin is growing or our back up funds are growing, these kinds of matters will affect our assessments regarding how to proceed and the extent to which we might choose to invest (accumulate) bitcoin aggressively or not, and our various assessments regarding if we might have had graduated to maintenance stage and/or to liquidation (sustainable withdrawal) stage.. 

There may be times that we bounce back and forth between stages, even though I do consider the stages in somewhat linear ways, too.

At the end of the day what's really important is just starting to invest, sure there are alot of factors that can play significant role in what will ultimately be the person choice bit deciding whether or no to invest depends on them and the best choice they can make for themselves is to actually just start investing, it's granted that they might encounter roadblocks on the way but no one ever said the journey of bitcoin investment was linear or straightforward because it not but we can also adapt to changes that might come up, such as changes in income since what we earn or make from whatever we do for money might not be consistent so what need to be able to shift our between our expenditures, if you want to invest more then you have to spend less on this and lifestyles that you can reduce but this one its own might also present us with a challenge, for how long will you keep cutting down on you expenses in order to invest, something like this will really leave people in a dilemma and can even contribute to them halting their bitcoin investment, long term holding isn't easy, any one expecting a walk in the park might get disappointed because it not, it's tiring and needs a reason amount of discipline on the part of the investor to be able to pull it off, and anyone who actually wants to succeed as an investor must be able to sustain attributes like discipline and consistency if they intend to actually make anything good out of their hopes of investing in bitcoin.

[bitmover]

I would imagine that bitcoin's addressable market s more than $1 quadrillion, which would be close to 500x from today's prices (market cap), even though it could take 50 to 200 years or more to get to such status.. perhaps?

I believe you are talking more about a USD downward movement than a bitcoin upward movement, right?

have you seen how gold prices have grow over the last 2 years? I decided to accumulate gold as well since a few months ago, and I am having good results as well.

Maybe USD (and other currencies) won't be abe to pay all those debits they acumulate, so we will see some crazy inflation (all over the world) in the future

[JayJuanGee]

I would imagine that bitcoin's addressable market s more than $1 quadrillion, which would be close to 500x from today's prices (market cap), even though it could take 50 to 200 years or more to get to such status.. perhaps?

I believe you are talking more about a USD downward movement than a bitcoin upward movement, right?

I am largely talking in today's prices, so I am not relying on the debasement of the dollar for those prices, whether we talk about pricing in dollars, or commodities or goods and services such as hookers, lambos and blow.

Sure, it can be difficult to measure when the dollar is also debasing at extraordinary rates.. yet if the dollar ends up imploding too fast then the numbers I talk about will be much greater.. so in today's dollars the monetary value of various assets and currencies and currency like items add up to nearly 1 quadrillion.. and yeah the dollar might debase 10x in the next 10-20 years, so then the monetary value (priced in dollars) would become $10 quadrillion.
 

have you seen how gold prices have grow over the last 2 years? I decided to accumulate gold as well since a few months ago, and I am having good results as well.

Gold is a relic and sure, it is the current go to instrument for legacy finance, but I doubt it is a good place to put value.  Bitcoin is somewhere in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better than gold, so it seems silly to be putting value into gold and diluting your investment capital to put into gold that has already shown itself as a loser in modern monetary battles.. I frequently suggest that guys put no more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings, into gold, and even 10% might be too much.

Sure, in the end, you can do whatever you like, even if it does not end up playing out so well. .. and sure, it is possible to that gold might be able to keep up with bitcoin, yet I doubt it.  There is a need to zoom out, and yeah of course, you can come to your own conclusions (which you seem to have had come to such conclusions to want to have some gold allocation, which is fine, even though I think it is a bit of a distraction away from where the real value is, aka bitcoin.)

Maybe USD (and other currencies) won't be abe to pay all those debits they acumulate, so we will see some crazy inflation (all over the world) in the future

Well the USD is the best of the worst, since it is continuing to get the value of the various other shitty fiats to flow into it, so sure it is possible that the dollar might completely collapse, too.. yet I doubt that value is going to be flowing into gold, in the even that the whole system collapses.. but hey, what do I know?  I will continue to mostly allocate in bitcoin, and surelyI think gold is mostly a waste of time, yet sure, guys might choose to put up to 10% into gold, and sure some guys will allocate way more into gold, and even though I consider that to be erroneous, everyone is free to make their own allocation choices.

[bitmover]

Gold is a relic and sure, it is the current go to instrument for legacy finance, but I doubt it is a good place to put value.  Bitcoin is somewhere in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better than gold, so it seems silly to be putting value into gold and diluting your investment capital to put into gold that has already shown itself as a loser in modern monetary battles.. I frequently suggest that guys put no more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings, into gold, and even 10% might be too much.

I do think diversification is key in my portfolio.
I will probably retire early in a few months / years (it depends on how well btc and some assets in brazil will perform) and I need something more stable to keep living.

Also, I may even sell some gold to buy more bitcoin in a bear market.

I do think bitcoin is better than gold. I have 10x more bitcoin than gold. But I am not so optimistic about 1 quadritillion . If it goes to 1 mi it will be amazing .
But I want it to reach 1 mi while I am still young, not in 200 years lol

[JayJuanGee]

Gold is a relic and sure, it is the current go to instrument for legacy finance, but I doubt it is a good place to put value.  Bitcoin is somewhere in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better than gold, so it seems silly to be putting value into gold and diluting your investment capital to put into gold that has already shown itself as a loser in modern monetary battles.. I frequently suggest that guys put no more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings, into gold, and even 10% might be too much.

I do think diversification is key in my portfolio.
I will probably retire early in a few months / years (it depends on how well btc and some assets in brazil will perform) and I need something more stable to keep living.

I am a little bit against gold and/or pumping gold as if it were reasonably comparable to bitcoin (especially in bitcoin threads, not that I consider you to be disingenuine in talking about and/or cross-referencing gold), even though I am not against diversification, especially after any of us might have had already spent several years building our wealth.. whether in bitcoin (and cash) only or if we might have come to bitcoin while already having had built up some of our other investments.

I understand that it can be problematic to have too many resources that are ONLY in bitcoin and cash, so in that regard, there are likely benefits to have various options for spending and/or perhaps being able to ride out the more volatile (especially downward volatile) periods of bitcoin.

Even though I stand by my statement about having no more than 10% allocated to gold as compared with bitcoin, at the same time, I surely don't know your personal circumstances, and surely there are some geographical locations in which it might be more practical to hold gold and dollars rather than your local currency, yet I am still having some issues figuring out why going beyond 10% might be justified... and then are you referring to physical gold or paper gold, and surely there could be issues regarding how easily you can get in and out of gold, yet surely if you already have some past practice of investing in gold (whether paper and/or physical) then you might have circumstances in which it could be more justified to hold gold.. Perhaps?  Yet the mere fact that gold has been performing relatively well compared to bitcoin in the past 6-12 months would hardly be a justification to treat gold more seriously and/or to go beyond something like 10% allocation as compared with bitcoin, at least from my ways of thinking about it.

Also, I may even sell some gold to buy more bitcoin in a bear market.

You likely realize that I am not too excited about ideas of trying to trade bitcoin (or selling it or failing refusing to buy it - such as buying gold rather than bitcoin) rather than having a practice in which you ongoing shoot for accumulating bitcoin until you reach overaccumulation status.   

So difficult to get me to get excited about investing in some asset that I consider inferior order justify getting more bitcoin later... to the extent that may or may not work out.

I personally consider that if you think that you don't have enough bitcoin and you are still accumulating bitcoin, then the most sure way to accumulate bitcoin is to ongoingly buy it, yet I do also understand that from time to time, you might be already holding some other assets that you might sell in order to buy more bitcoin, yet I cannot really appreciate a stated goal of accumulating more of any other asset with a goal of buying more bitcoin later with that asset... It just seems to be a different way of thinking about the matter, and I am not even going to proclaim that you are necessarily wrong, even though it seems to potentially take us a wee bit away from this thread and even the bitcoin-first kind of focus of this particular thread.

I do think bitcoin is better than gold. I have 10x more bitcoin than gold.

Fair enough.  You may well already be within boundaries that I would consider to be acceptable, so any of us who might be prioritizing bitcoin with 10x investments, then we likely would be investing 90% of our time, energy and/or value into bitcoin rather than in other assets, yet at the same time, we still have to attempt to be practical in regards to our own circumstances that ongoingly accounts for our circumstances (I refer to as our 9 individual factors) and/or changes in our circumtances.

But I am not so optimistic about 1 quadritillion .

 When I referred to $1 quadrillion of an addressable market, I am referring to all of the monetized assets/currencies, which maybe would end up putting bitcoin at around $60 million per coin, which also seems a bit conservative, even though at the same time, I think that I am trying to be conservative in my own  expectations.

If you are not so familiar with the idea of addressable market, you can maybe look up some of Jesse Myers (Croesus) and his discussion of the topic of addressable market.   

Here's a couple of links.  https://x.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1873760333199778298

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KIh83ZqNG8

There are surely some other references and/or discussions of addressable market and speculation that bitcoin can pretty much end up gaining value based on the various inefficiencies that come from having less efficient assets/currencies holding value. Accordingly, since bitcoin is the most efficient asset and the most pristine asset, then over time value is going to continue to flow into bitcoin unless it loses such status.. 

If it goes to 1 mi it will be amazing .
But I want it to reach 1 mi while I am still young, not in 200 years lol

Talking about bitcoin's total addressable market and how long it could take for the market to play out, such as 50-200 years is a different story as compared with what bitcoin's spot price might do, and you seem to know already that I am not that excited about figuring out BTC spot prices, yet even my fuck you status table shows the 200-WMA as being at $1 million by mid 2039, and surely the 200-WMA is a bottom price and even fairly conservative, so it is likely that BTC spot price could hit $1million much sooner, and even as soon as this cycle (by this year or next year) or even the next cycle by 2029.. but still I am not a fan of BTC spot prices, which is part of the reason that I suggest that we attempt to plan our BTC valuations around bottom prices and/or the 200 WMA rather than spot prices, even though surely we buy and sell our coins at their spot prices, whenever we are engaging in our buying and/or selling of coins.

For sure, when we are dealing with our BTC holdings as compared with any other assets that we might hold, of course, we are planning in much shorter time horizons, including we are planning short, medium and long term, yet if we are still accumulating then we likely still have to get through that phase prior to considering our selling strategies, even though we also might want to plan ahead to some extent so that we have some ideas about what we are planning to do in the future, which would attempt to justify our today's actions (or our inactions).

By the way, bitcoin does not give any shits about what you want, yet of course, you can plan your own preparations around what you consider bitcoin might do or might not do, and yeah, maybe you have some plans to sell some bitcoin on the way to $1 million, or maybe you will wait until after bitcoin reaches $1 million, yet I think that it is a bit problematic to expect something that may or may not happen, even though at the same time, each of us make our preparations around including bitcoin as a major component of our total investment portfolio while realizing its performance is not guaranteed, so it could go up, down or sideways, and hopefully whatever we are doing helps us to simultaneously prepare for a variety of possible scenarios, which I tend to think that we are able to prepare for a variety of scenarios and not to expect any kind of guarantee regarding what might happen in the future.

And, yeah, don't get me wrong, since of course, I am fairly highly allocated in bitcoin, yet I think that a lot of my allocation to bitcoin came from bitcoin's appreciation rather than what I put into it, even though in my first several years in bitcoin, I did end up giving a decent level of prioritizing in regards to investing in bitcoin, and then after I largely established my bitcoin position, I continued to give a certain level of priority in making sure that I did not sell too much of my bitcoin too quickly, even though I am not opposed to selling on the way up (price-based sustainable withdrawal) and also time based sustainable withdraw that I believe comes at a later stage in a guys having had held bitcoin, and each of us has to figure out the extent to which our accumulation of bitcoin might be enough or more than enough so that we can start to participate in price-based sustainable withdrawal and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal, which I believe are worthy and even attainable goals that many guys can aim to achieve as long as they have investment timelines of 4-10 years or more, and surely if you had already been accumulating bitcoin for several years (in your case, perhaps close to 2 cycles), then you may well be ready to enter into your next stage, whether that is maintenance or if that might be the employment of some form of sustainable withdrawal.

[Gost ms]

The amount of information here is mind blowing, I'm not too sure about actually being able to completely go through everything but I will definitely try😅😅. It's all just too educational though going through all the factors that could potentially affect whether or not a person will choose to invest in bitcoin and how fast they can invest if the actually decide to invest, without proper understanding of the role these factors can play in an investor who is still in a decision making stage, granted this factors vary from individual to individual as we all have different ways we process and evaluate risks and opportunities we encounter, proper understanding of what works for us as individuals will ultimately play a role on how we go about our bitcoin investment plans and where we go from there.

With any thread there may well be repetition and information that is not very well organized, since the various posts are put together in differing times, and even the way that I wrote the opening posts, they left room for updating, yet some areas I did not update and/or I did not add the information that I had been originally considering that I was going to add..

There surely can be ways to present information in more simplified ways, and so each of us has our own style, and some people might be better served in their getting information in other ways.. or even more basic ways.. and sure there are likely threads and/or posts that attempt to present information in even more basic ways. 

Even though I have a lot of discussion points in my posts, I repeatedly tend to emphasize getting started and self-learning, so surely there may be some irony that I talk about so many things that we can and/or should consider when we are investing in bitcoin and while we are strengthening our cashflow management systems/practices, yet at the same time, I am also trying to emphasize the value that folks get started and tailor their own practices to their individual circumstances, so if we get started and we are building our bitcoin stash and strengthening our cashflow management systems/practices, then we likely have to continue to adapt.. so that even as our bitcoin is growing or our back up funds are growing, these kinds of matters will affect our assessments regarding how to proceed and the extent to which we might choose to invest (accumulate) bitcoin aggressively or not, and our various assessments regarding if we might have had graduated to maintenance stage and/or to liquidation (sustainable withdrawal) stage.. 

There may be times that we bounce back and forth between stages, even though I do consider the stages in somewhat linear ways, too.

At the end of the day what's really important is just starting to invest, sure there are alot of factors that can play significant role in what will ultimately be the person choice bit deciding whether or no to invest depends on them and the best choice they can make for themselves is to actually just start investing, it's granted that they might encounter roadblocks on the way but no one ever said the journey of bitcoin investment was linear or straightforward because it not but we can also adapt to changes that might come up, such as changes in income since what we earn or make from whatever we do for money might not be consistent so what need to be able to shift our between our expenditures, if you want to invest more then you have to spend less on this and lifestyles that you can reduce but this one its own might also present us with a challenge, for how long will you keep cutting down on you expenses in order to invest, something like this will really leave people in a dilemma and can even contribute to them halting their bitcoin investment, long term holding isn't easy, any one expecting a walk in the park might get disappointed because it not, it's tiring and needs a reason amount of discipline on the part of the investor to be able to pull it off, and anyone who actually wants to succeed as an investor must be able to sustain attributes like discipline and consistency if they intend to actually make anything good out of their hopes of investing in bitcoin.

Yes, you are right, first a person needs to start investing. By starting an investment, a person can continue to buy consistently and can do what is needed to manage his investment properly and can gain knowledge. To hold the investment in the long term, it will not be possible to hold the holding in the long term only if he has basic knowledge about Bitcoin. One has to start investing with basic knowledge about Bitcoin first. After that, a person can learn a lot more.

While investing, a person needs to reduce his extra expenses. It is always better not to spend extra, not only when investing. If a person does not spend extra, then he may be able to buy aggressively with that extra expense. By reducing all these expenses such as extra eating out, smoking expenses, alcohol expenses, etc., you can buy more aggressively with this amount of money.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Yes, you are right, first a person needs to start investing. By starting an investment, a person can continue to buy consistently and can do what is needed to manage his investment properly and can gain knowledge. To hold the investment in the long term, it will not be possible to hold the holding in the long term only if he has basic knowledge about Bitcoin. One has to start investing with basic knowledge about Bitcoin first. After that, a person can learn a lot more.

Frequently, I like to suggest that the main thing that a person needs to know is whether or not he has discretionary income so that he actually can invest into bitcoin, which just requires basic math skills that most people should be able to learn and/or recognize the extent to which they have basic math skills to that they can properly calculate the extent to which they have a discretionary income.

And the knowledge of bitcoin does not need to be anything beyond glancing at a chart and seeing that number goes up and/or it tends to go up, even though it is volatile and not guaranteed to go up, which would be common sense kinds of assessments, so most people have common sense, and would be able to get started and learn along the way, as long as they have discretionary income. 

Getting started also helps to motivate learning, since common sense should suggest that an overwhelming majority of people would prefer to not lose money.

While investing, a person needs to reduce his extra expenses.

Beginner investors can increase their discretionary  income by increasing their income and/or by reducing their expenses.  It is optional whether they want to increase their discretionary income so that they can increase the amount that they are able to put into bitcoin.

It is always better not to spend extra, not only when investing.

How much a person chooses to spend it up to them, and surely many of us believe that bitcoin is a great place for everyone to put money and to invest time, energy and money into it, so yeah, if they are able to increase their discretionary income in order to be able to invest more into bitcoin, then that would likely be a good thing, yet none of us can make value choices for other people.  Each person has to make those kinds of choices based on his own personal factors.

If a person does not spend extra, then he may be able to buy aggressively with that extra expense. By reducing all these expenses such as extra eating out, smoking expenses, alcohol expenses, etc., you can buy more aggressively with this amount of money.

Sure. I it is true that a person can choose to invest more aggressively in bitcoin if he has more discretionary income, and he also can increase his aggressiveness based on his having had put good cashflow management practices and back up funds into place... But again, the level of aggressiveness is discretionary (meaning people need to choose their level of aggressiveness, and so if they are a new investor, they might not want to be aggressive until they become more comfortable and accustomed to investing into bitcoin and also learning about bitcoin, so in that regard, the more that a person knows and feels comfortable, then the more likely that he is able to increase his level of aggressiveness within the boundaries of his discretionary income.

I would suggest that there is a bit of a process, and surely there are some folks who learn about bitcoin quickly and are able to increase the level of their aggressiveness soon after starting to invest in bitcoin, and other newbies may well take some time to get used to bitcoin in order to feel more comfortable increasing their level of aggressiveness, so some beginners might purposefully choose to invest into bitcoin with quite a bit of reservation, perhaps in a very conservative kind of a way, and surely it seems that there might be a need for them to study bitcoin so that they can increase their level of aggressiveness, yet those are also choices that individuals have to make in order to figure out their level of comfort in regards to how much time, energy and/or value to put into bitcoin.

[Barikui1]

Sure. I it is true that a person can choose to invest more aggressively in bitcoin if he has more discretionary income, and he also can increase his aggressiveness based on his having had put good cashflow management practices and back up funds into place... But again, the level of aggressiveness is discretionary (meaning people need to choose their level of aggressiveness, and so if they are a new investor, they might not want to be aggressive until they become more comfortable and accustomed to investing into bitcoin and also learning about bitcoin, so in that regard, the more that a person knows and feels comfortable, then the more likely that he is able to increase his level of aggressiveness within the boundaries of his discretionary income.

This is just the point sir, knowledge is very much important here, why most Bitcoin investors are still struggling while being aggressive in their Bitcoin accumulation is that they don't actually know how to go about their level of aggressiveness base on the discretionary income at their disposal, sometimes they tends to overdo it and it may likely spill over and before they know it, they have spent more than their discretionary income which will become a burden to them later on, but if an investor in Bitcoin is being aggressive within the confinement of his discretionary income just as you have already said, the possibilities of missing a step while investing is near to zero, and the chances of success in holding strong is extremely high, because all your deeds is within the confinement of your discretionary income.