JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas

[ZeroVinsonN]

Investing in volatile assets like Bitcoin requires knowledge and when calculating the opportunities and success rates of this investment, one should definitely have some knowledge that whether long-term investment is better or short-term because there is no such thing as a 100% sure investment.

Obviously long term investment is better than short term investment, common sense will tell you that much and for your own good it's better you don't start trying to calculate whether you will fail in your investment or not, that will be like walking on the sharp edge of a blade, the slightest shift in price will make you fall out of fear of losing.

However, no matter what strategy one follows, if one invests without proper risk management, the risk of loss can increase dangerously.

Therefore, to keep the investment safe, the invested money should be such that it comes from additional expenses in the family and a separate fund should be kept that can meet both the investment and the family's needs in times of danger.

What additional expenses in the family are you talking about, your investment should be done from your discretionary income and setting up an emergency helps make sure you don't end up selling your bitcoin if for any reason your finances stop coming in, it is completely out of the question to invest in bitcoin with your emergency fund so saying to keep a separate fund for investment and family needs in times of danger is wrong, if you are not generating discretionary income then you should put your investment on hold till you start generating discretionary income again.

[Itz-prisigold]

Obviously long term investment pay off more than Short term investment, because when you held your Bitcoin for long it passes different stages and that's how the profit will keep compounding not like that of short term investment that you can't even wait for the price to do another ATH and then investors will start looking into selling just because they figure out that they are in a little profit.

I agree that a long term investor will have more time to go through the various market cycles of Bitcoin, but I wouldn't say that long term investment will be necessarily pays more. We just don't really know what the Bitcoin future will look like, and I believe it is best not to present the outcome as if it's certain.

And secondly I think the word compounding may be confusing in this context or should I say misleading?  Bitcoin does not give you a steady return that continues to compound throughout when you're holding it. The price can rise resulting in an increase in the value of your holdings, but however, you should also know that the price can also fall.

For me the more significant benefit of long term accumulation is that it can create discipline. Rather than the investor looking around for a small profit and then making plans on when to sell, he can concentrate on growing his Bitcoin holdings by investing funds that he can actually leave untouched for years. This doesn't mean it will guarantee success, but it can help one to avoid making some decisions that are irrelevant based on short term price changes.

[Barikui1]

I agree that a long term investor will have more time to go through the various market cycles of Bitcoin, but I wouldn't say that long term investment will be necessarily pays more. We just don't really know what the Bitcoin future will look like, and I believe it is best not to present the outcome as if it's certain.

You are right when you said that no one is certain of the potential outcome of Bitcoin in the future, but concerning productivity, holding long term is way better than those that have been trading, if you did some addition and subtraction to what they have made and loss in the pass ten years, their profit is nowhere near those that has held a good stash of Bitcoin in the past ten years.
So if you think that long term investment in Bitcoin doesn't pay more than those that are trading it for minimal gains, then you are totally wrong, because you are just talking blindly without looking at the numbers and fact.

[Sim_card]

I agree that a long term investor will have more time to go through the various market cycles of Bitcoin, but I wouldn't say that long term investment will be necessarily pays more. We just don't really know what the Bitcoin future will look like, and I believe it is best not to present the outcome as if it's certain.

So what pays more trading? Even if we cannot predict what bitcoin future will be like history has shown it that the price increases overtime and for that reason, long term investors are the ones gaining more than any other person because the longer, you hodli, the bigger the size of your stash overtime. The price of bitcoin going uptrend is higher than downtrend and we use that to give ourselves more hope as we keep our bitcoin accumulation ongoing till we reach our bitcoin target.

And secondly I think the word compounding may be confusing in this context or should I say misleading?  Bitcoin does not give you a steady return that continues to compound throughout when you're holding it. The price can rise resulting in an increase in the value of your holdings, but however, you should also know that the price can also fall.

You don't understand how bitcoin compounds in value overtime. For example, I bought bitcoin in the last circle at $20k and now bitcoin is $76,622 as I'm writing this post. Didn't you see that the investor is still in profits even at $76k+ and bitcoin will never dip to $20k again because the previous circle bottom line  is always lower than the next circle bottom line. So, if you are DCAing, in every new circle bull run ATH, your profit will keep compounding and increasing the value of your bitcoin stash overtime. Which is why you are advised not to sell as you are accumulating in order not to limit that compounding value.

[Taskford]

I agree that a long term investor will have more time to go through the various market cycles of Bitcoin, but I wouldn't say that long term investment will be necessarily pays more. We just don't really know what the Bitcoin future will look like, and I believe it is best not to present the outcome as if it's certain.

So what pays more trading? Even if we cannot predict what bitcoin future will be like history has shown it that the price increases overtime and for that reason, long term investors are the ones gaining more than any other person because the longer, you hodli, the bigger the size of your stash overtime. The price of bitcoin going uptrend is higher than downtrend and we use that to give ourselves more hope as we keep our bitcoin accumulation ongoing till we reach our bitcoin target.

People usually got tempted to try it, when they see someone is winning in their trade.

But they must understand or know that those gains they have seen is not consistent. Knowing market is hard to predict due to its volatile nature.

Also if they do a research about history of Bitcoin and also past cycle happen. They provably could see that most of the time the holders are always in best position, since they are the one earning great profits. Compare to those people usually deal with short term and try to chase for quick gains.

[Abbatty]

I agree that a long term investor will have more time to go through the various market cycles of Bitcoin, but I wouldn't say that long term investment will be necessarily pays more. We just don't really know what the Bitcoin future will look like, and I believe it is best not to present the outcome as if it's certain.

You are right when you said that no one is certain of the potential outcome of Bitcoin in the future, but concerning productivity, holding long term is way better than those that have been trading, if you did some addition and subtraction to what they have made and loss in the pass ten years, their profit is nowhere near those that has held a good stash of Bitcoin in the past ten years.
So if you think that long term investment in Bitcoin doesn't pay more than those that are trading it for minimal gains, then you are totally wrong, because you are just talking blindly without looking at the numbers and fact.

Trading In bitcoin is no where near investing in it, for me I think when we mention trading it should be compared to gambling at Least and not investing. Investing in Bitcoin and holding for a long time is simple the best, because there is every potential better return, sometimes it not even about the returns but holding for a long time makes sure you have a planned and secured future.

So bitcoin investment for a long period of time is way ahead and not to be compared to trading of bitcoin, at least if it to be compared it should be for those that intend to hold for a short period of time.

[The Founding Titan]

People usually got tempted to try it, when they see someone is winning in their trade.

But they must understand or know that those gains they have seen is not consistent. Knowing market is hard to predict due to its volatile nature.

Also if they do a research about history of Bitcoin and also past cycle happen. They provably could see that most of the time the holders are always in best position, since they are the one earning great profits. Compare to those people usually deal with short term and try to chase for quick gains.

Every now and then we hear that a gambler won millions from a bet or a series of bets they placed, the news feels so good that a lot of people wish they'd been that lucky themselves but just because one person was lucky to win that much doesn't mean gambler win alot. It's the same with trading, sure some people have been able to make money from it, even enough to change their lives completely but their percentage is much smaller than that of those who lose their money to it so just because we heard to a trader somewhere had a trade to made them rich doesn't mean we will be lucky if we ended up becoming traders ourselves.
Rather than having to rely on something with so much uncertainty it's invest instead, even most traders I know say the never trade bitcoin, it's simply too unpredictable so why should I risk trading bitcoin when I can just invest in it?.

[Itz-prisigold]

You don't understand how bitcoin compounds in value overtime. For example, I bought bitcoin in the last circle at $20k and now bitcoin is $76,622 as I'm writing this post. Didn't you see that the investor is still in profits even at $76k+ and bitcoin will never dip to $20k again because the previous circle bottom line  is always lower than the next circle bottom line. So, if you are DCAing, in every new circle bull run ATH, your profit will keep compounding and increasing the value of your bitcoin stash overtime. Which is why you are advised not to sell as you are accumulating in order not to limit that compounding value.

I totally understand what you are saying, if someone had bought bitcoin when the price was at $20k and they are still holding it at a price of $70k,  then they have definitely made a significant return. But I still think that we should still be cautious of calling this as “compounding.”  As the market price of the Bitcoin rises, the value of the Bitcoin rises as well, and this is simply because Bitcoin doesn’t generate a regular return that automatically grows over time like compound interest.

bitcoin will never dip to $20k again because the previous circle bottom line  is always lower than the next circle bottom line.

Also, claiming that Bitcoin won't come back down to $20k levels again due to all previous cycles low have been getting higher is still a prediction whether you agree with me or not.  Yes it's true that it has been seen in the past  but we cannot be really sure or guarantee that the same pattern will definitely continue in the future.

Sure long term holding can provide additional time to make gains if Bitcoin continues its upward trend,  but history is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

[Saltysugar99]

People usually got tempted to try it, when they see someone is winning in their trade.

But they must understand or know that those gains they have seen is not consistent. Knowing market is hard to predict due to its volatile nature.

Also if they do a research about history of Bitcoin and also past cycle happen. They provably could see that most of the time the holders are always in best position, since they are the one earning great profits. Compare to those people usually deal with short term and try to chase for quick gains.

Every now and then we hear that a gambler won millions from a bet or a series of bets they placed, the news feels so good that a lot of people wish they'd been that lucky themselves but just because one person was lucky to win that much doesn't mean gambler win alot. It's the same with trading, sure some people have been able to make money from it, even enough to change their lives completely but their percentage is much smaller than that of those who lose their money to it so just because we heard to a trader somewhere had a trade to made them rich doesn't mean we will be lucky if we ended up becoming traders ourselves.
Rather than having to rely on something with so much uncertainty it's invest instead, even most traders I know say the never trade bitcoin, it's simply too unpredictable so why should I risk trading bitcoin when I can just invest in it?.

I agree that it can be very misleading to base your expected outcome on the extraordinary success story of a gambler or trader. We usually hear stories of people who made millions of dollars from a bet or trade. But the stories of how many people lost money using the same strategy do not make headlines. So the existence of a winner does not prove the reliability of a strategy. In  Bitcoin, when a newbie starts buying and selling based on short time price predictions, his behavior easily turns into speculation. Especially if he thinks he can sell at $85K and buy back at $60K, he is betting on his own market timing ability as well as his investment thesis on Bitcoin. The objective of a short time  accumulator is not to profit from every swing in the market. He is basically building a stash by buying Bitcoin on an ongoing basis according to his cash flow and is thinking about a timeframe of 4-10 years or more. On the other hand, repeatedly buying and selling in a short timeframe or trying to buy back at a cheaper price is closer to trading or gambling than investing. To me, the most underestimated problem in trading is opportunity cost. Suppose you had some BTC holdings. You sold half of it because you thought a correction was coming. It is good if the correction comes and you can buy back properly. But what if the price goes in the opposite direction? Now it may take more fiat to get the same BTC back. So in investing  Bitcoin, I would personally think about the simple approach. If I had discretionary income, I would accumulate it regularly. It is logical to try to make strong holding for the future by adjusting the buying amount according to financial circumstances.

[eXo_coin]

I totally understand what you are saying, if someone had bought bitcoin when the price was at $20k and they are still holding it at a price of $70k,  then they have definitely made a significant return. But I still think that we should still be cautious of calling this as “compounding.”  As the market price of the Bitcoin rises, the value of the Bitcoin rises as well, and this is simply because Bitcoin doesn’t generate a regular return that automatically grows over time like compound interest.

And this isn't the expected profit, but rather an unexpected outcome, due to the price fluctuations beyond expectations. So, it's natural for them to profit, as they were certainly panicking about the future even before the price increase occurred when they first started DCA. Therefore, this is a purely predictable profit.

[Gragebox]

You don't understand how bitcoin compounds in value overtime. For example, I bought bitcoin in the last circle at $20k and now bitcoin is $76,622 as I'm writing this post. Didn't you see that the investor is still in profits even at $76k+ and bitcoin will never dip to $20k again because the previous circle bottom line  is always lower than the next circle bottom line. So, if you are DCAing, in every new circle bull run ATH, your profit will keep compounding and increasing the value of your bitcoin stash overtime. Which is why you are advised not to sell as you are accumulating in order not to limit that compounding value.

I get what you are saying with more time frames ie Bitcoin over multiple cycles Someone who bought at close to $20k and held through to the later highs is already up huge on the value of their holdings. It can be advantageous to DCA as you are not relying on buying at the bottom.

But I would be very cautious in the claim that Bitcoin can "never" come back to a former price level. Bitcoin has seen quite significant drawdowns in the past, and there is no guarantee that every future cycle will always have a higher bottom than the last. Past does not necessarily guarantee future results.

Personally the longer term DCA is the stronger reason and makes more sense to me because I don't have to worry about nailing every top and bottom. If you buy into Bitcoin long term and you manage your risk the stick to it plan that is dollar cost averaging into it often makes more sense than selling and trying to buy back lower.

[ChocolateBitcoinK]

No one can give any guarantees about anything, but still staying with a solid strategy and having things for the long term is always profitable because these are giving good returns. I am reading and studying a few things because these are early days and I need enough knowledge.
DCA is currently one of the best options because I am using this and have the mindset to stay with this until I am able. After this, I will be making some changes, but now I'm just investing and enjoying this Bitcoin.
Listening is good, but it's never been ideal to give up on our strategy because it always works better and has a good chance of keeping all things on a good track. There is enough potential in Bitcoin, so now hopefully I will be able to show good results at the end.

The DCA strategy is the best when it comes to investing in Bitcoin, it a strategy that gives you total conveniency in investing. I see you mentioning profit a couple of times, just know bitcoin investment is not about that, it about investing for the future, it about making plans for the future, so when investing we should take away making profit, because it not even guaranteed.

Sometimes when we focus on profit making in bitcoin invest, we are triggered to make so many wrong decisions because at the end our emotions will get the better of us.

DCA helps you invest systematically, without relying on daily market fluctuations or specific price predictions. DCA is a simple and disciplined approach for those who want to accumulate Bitcoin for the long term. Investing in Bitcoin may increase in value in the future and may result in profits, but that is not a guarantee. If you make the thought of how much profit you will make or what percentage profit you will be able to make the main driving force of your investment, your decisions can easily become emotional. Buying too much when the price goes up and selling too much when the price goes down can both ruin your original investment plan. In long-term investing, the goal should not be just to look at the potential profit but to create a realistic plan and be able to follow it for a long time. The purpose of DCA is not to achieve quick profits, but to create a discipline of long-term investment without trying to time the market.

[icebar]

I agree that a long term investor will have more time to go through the various market cycles of Bitcoin, but I wouldn't say that long term investment will be necessarily pays more. We just don't really know what the Bitcoin future will look like, and I believe it is best not to present the outcome as if it's certain.

So what pays more trading? Even if we cannot predict what bitcoin future will be like history has shown it that the price increases overtime and for that reason, long term investors are the ones gaining more than any other person because the longer, you hodli, the bigger the size of your stash overtime. The price of bitcoin going uptrend is higher than downtrend and we use that to give ourselves more hope as we keep our bitcoin accumulation ongoing till we reach our bitcoin target.

People usually got tempted to try it, when they see someone is winning in their trade.

But they must understand or know that those gains they have seen is not consistent. Knowing market is hard to predict due to its volatile nature.

Also if they do a research about history of Bitcoin and also past cycle happen. They provably could see that most of the time the holders are always in best position, since they are the one earning great profits. Compare to those people usually deal with short term and try to chase for quick gains.

This is quite logical. Because I know some people who start trading just by seeing the success of people they know, without having enough understanding of the real risks. After seeing a few successful trades in this volatile Bitcoin market, many may think that regular profit is easy, but in reality, it is much more difficult and risky than they think. Of course, there is risk in investing, but it is completely different.

The purpose of investing and trading is never the same. A long-term investor usually relies on patience, ability and a long-term mindset while accumulating wealth. On the other hand, trading requires market analysis, risk control and regular decision-making, which even experienced people make mistakes.

[Sammysmart001]

You don't understand how bitcoin compounds in value overtime. For example, I bought bitcoin in the last circle at $20k and now bitcoin is $76,622 as I'm writing this post. Didn't you see that the investor is still in profits even at $76k+ and bitcoin will never dip to $20k again because the previous circle bottom line  is always lower than the next circle bottom line. So, if you are DCAing, in every new circle bull run ATH, your profit will keep compounding and increasing the value of your bitcoin stash overtime. Which is why you are advised not to sell as you are accumulating in order not to limit that compounding value.

I totally understand what you are saying, if someone had bought bitcoin when the price was at $20k and they are still holding it at a price of $70k,  then they have definitely made a significant return. But I still think that we should still be cautious of calling this as “compounding.”  As the market price of the Bitcoin rises, the value of the Bitcoin rises as well, and this is simply because Bitcoin doesn’t generate a regular return that automatically grows over time like compound interest.

bitcoin will never dip to $20k again because the previous circle bottom line  is always lower than the next circle bottom line.

Also, claiming that Bitcoin won't come back down to $20k levels again due to all previous cycles low have been getting higher is still a prediction whether you agree with me or not.  Yes it's true that it has been seen in the past  but we cannot be really sure or guarantee that the same pattern will definitely continue in the future.

Sure long term holding can provide additional time to make gains if Bitcoin continues its upward trend,  but history is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Yeah actually being careful with the word compounding it very important. Giving an example of a users who buys Bitcoin at $20k and then later on it sum up to $70k in this case the value of their Bitcoin have increases but this not same as compound interest, on the previous gains Bitcoin is not generating interest. Rather gain is actually coming from market price increasing it important in the sence that price can also move in an opposite direction.

[Son Of Blockchain (SOB)]

bitcoin will never dip to $20k again because the previous circle bottom line  is always lower than the next circle bottom line.

Also, claiming that Bitcoin won't come back down to $20k levels again due to all previous cycles low have been getting higher is still a prediction whether you agree with me or not.  Yes it's true that it has been seen in the past  but we cannot be really sure or guarantee that the same pattern will definitely continue in the future.

Sure long term holding can provide additional time to make gains if Bitcoin continues its upward trend,  but history is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Ofcourse it's a speculation, we can't predict the future nor have we gone into the future to know if Bitcoin would never drop to that point, everyone investing in Bitcoin is doing so cause they’ve seen the past record and believe that it has the potential to do better, not because they've forseen the future, so you're right to call that a speculation.
 Although, for the records, he's right but like i said, we can only hope that it would maintain such in future and not dip lower than half of a current all time high.

[Grease5000]

A thing that is often neglected is the distinction between the regular income and a big lump sum. A person who gets a big payoff should make a different choice when investing in DCA. Whereas a person who invests from each paycheck should stick with it. This may help to alleviate the pressure of selecting one entry point, but it also creates the risk of Bitcoin trading higher as the remaining proceeds are sitting idle. In my opinion, the key is to make a decision before the emotions creep in. How much to put in right now; how much to put in over time; and what would make you alter your strategy. That's why the strategy is less reliant on predicting the forthcoming dip.

Honestly, some of what you wrote makes you sounds more like a trader than a long term investor. The focus on entry points, idle cash and changing strategy based on price action feels like trying to time the market. If you really believe in Bitcoin long term, DCA is more about consistently stacking and sticking to your plan.

I think the bigger question should be how much of the available discretionary income can be invested,while qn investor still maintained  his or her financial stability.

[avp2306]

I totally understand what you are saying, if someone had bought bitcoin when the price was at $20k and they are still holding it at a price of $70k,  then they have definitely made a significant return. But I still think that we should still be cautious of calling this as “compounding.”  As the market price of the Bitcoin rises, the value of the Bitcoin rises as well, and this is simply because Bitcoin doesn’t generate a regular return that automatically grows over time like compound interest.

Yeah actually being careful with the word compounding it very important. Giving an example of a users who buys Bitcoin at $20k and then later on it sum up to $70k in this case the value of their Bitcoin have increases but this not same as compound interest, on the previous gains Bitcoin is not generating interest. Rather gain is actually coming from market price increasing it important in the sence that price can also move in an opposite direction.

Would not rather choose to use the word compounding, since it may give some bad impression to Bitcoin and there are narrow minded people will think that Bitcoin is just another ponzi scheme.

If it truly happens that a investor bought Bitcoin when price reached at $20k, then it happens the market goes up then achieve $70k this is what we call price appreciation. Also producing yield is not part of Bitcoin's identity that's why its not suitable to use that word.

Much accurate if they call those actions they have done as investing and also holding, because is accurate and provably will not going to confuse people.

[JayJuanGee]

I totally understand what you are saying, if someone had bought bitcoin when the price was at $20k and they are still holding it at a price of $70k,  then they have definitely made a significant return. But I still think that we should still be cautious of calling this as “compounding.”  As the market price of the Bitcoin rises, the value of the Bitcoin rises as well, and this is simply because Bitcoin doesn’t generate a regular return that automatically grows over time like compound interest.

Yeah actually being careful with the word compounding it very important. Giving an example of a users who buys Bitcoin at $20k and then later on it sum up to $70k in this case the value of their Bitcoin have increases but this not same as compound interest, on the previous gains Bitcoin is not generating interest. Rather gain is actually coming from market price increasing it important in the sence that price can also move in an opposite direction.

Would not rather choose to use the word compounding, since it may give some bad impression to Bitcoin and there are narrow minded people will think that Bitcoin is just another ponzi scheme.

If it truly happens that a investor bought Bitcoin when price reached at $20k, then it happens the market goes up then achieve $70k this is what we call price appreciation. Also producing yield is not part of Bitcoin's identity that's why its not suitable to use that word.

Much accurate if they call those actions they have done as investing and also holding, because is accurate and provably will not going to confuse people.

There is nothing wrong with using the idea of compounding value, and I have a discussion of compounding value here - (512x price appreciation between 2015 and 2025 - even though currently BTC's price appreciation is the zone of only slightly more than 256x since 2015).

Sure, bitcoin does not offer any kind of dividend outside of itself that is paid by some other entity, such as a yield, but it does have compounding value, and historically it has tended to be way better to hold onto bitcoin for 1-2 or more cycles in order to enjoy the benefits of compounding value, especially compared with folks who tend to cash out of bitcoin with less than 2x in price appreciation, so in those cases guys who are trading bitcoin and/or cashing out with less than 2x price appreciation, they are not getting the benefits of bitcoin's compounding value.

No compounding value is not guaranteed, yet bitcoin continues to have a strong investment thesis to suggest that those who buy and hold bitcoin for 4-10 years or more have reasonably good odds to continue to benefit from bitcoin's compounding value, just like those who had historically bought and held bitcoin had been able to benefit from its historical compounding value.

[alankasman]

Yeah actually being careful with the word compounding it very important. Giving an example of a users who buys Bitcoin at $20k and then later on it sum up to $70k in this case the value of their Bitcoin have increases but this not same as compound interest, on the previous gains Bitcoin is not generating interest. Rather gain is actually coming from market price increasing it important in the sence that price can also move in an opposite direction.

The profits we earn from investing in Bitcoin are the result of market movements, which are currently increasing in value. This means that if we purchased at around $20,000, and then a few days later, the price would have significantly risen to $70,000.

This price is purely the result of market movements that are much higher than what we experienced when we purchased at $20,000. This indicates that the profits earned are not the result of interest, but rather because market movements have resulted in substantial gains.

[Sammysmart001]

There is nothing wrong with using the idea of compounding value, and I have a discussion of compounding value here - (512x price appreciation between 2015 and 2025 - even though currently BTC's price appreciation is the zone of only slightly more than 256x since 2015).

Sure, bitcoin does not offer any kind of dividend outside of itself that is paid by some other entity, such as a yield, but it does have compounding value, and historically it has tended to be way better to hold onto bitcoin for 1-2 or more cycles in order to enjoy the benefits of compounding value, especially compared with folks who tend to cash out of bitcoin with less than 2x in price appreciation, so in those cases guys who are trading bitcoin and/or cashing out with less than 2x price appreciation, they are not getting the benefits of bitcoin's compounding value.

No compounding value is not guaranteed, yet bitcoin continues to have a strong investment thesis to suggest that those who buy and hold bitcoin for 4-10 years or more have reasonably good odds to continue to benefit from bitcoin's compounding value, just like those who had historically bought and held bitcoin had been able to benefit from its historical compounding value.

I do get your point now most especially of the distinction in between compound interest and compounding value, but my concern was actually that having to use the word compounding without a proper explanation can make people to think Bitcoin is generating some form of yield or intrest itself.

So I do agree that compounding value can describe respected price appreciation over different periods. But it also important to make such distinction clear.