Brasileirão 2022 - Brazilian Championship Serie A

[uneng]

I think the real gambling here will be regards the second position of Brasileirão now. There are 6 clubs very close to each other, all of them able to conquer the 'silver medal' on the competition. Flamengo and Corinthians might be the favorite, but one slight mistake from each of them and Internacional, Fluminense plus both Atléticos can surpass and guarantee the position. It must be a tough dispute more interesting than the one for the first place.

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[hichamito37]

I think the real gambling here will be regards the second position of Brasileirão now. There are 6 clubs very close to each other, all of them able to conquer the 'silver medal' on the competition. Flamengo and Corinthians might be the favorite, but one slight mistake from each of them and Internacional, Fluminense plus both Atléticos can surpass and guarantee the position. It must be a tough dispute more interesting than the one for the first place.

Right now, we are in the midst of a very interesting situation in the league. The Flamengo team is playing very well at the moment.
But it is the same with international. In addition to that, there are so many teams that are very close to each other. There is no doubt that a very simple mistake can have a very negative impact on any team and there will be a heavy price to pay for any team that makes this mistake.

However, Palmeiras do not have to worry about anything. On the table, they are far ahead of their opponents. My opinion is that there are no teams right now that are capable of dethroning them at this point in time.

[alegotardo]

Right now, we are in the midst of a very interesting situation in the league. The Flamengo team is playing very well at the moment.
But it is the same with international. In addition to that, there are so many teams that are very close to each other. There is no doubt that a very simple mistake can have a very negative impact on any team and there will be a heavy price to pay for any team that makes this mistake.

However, Palmeiras do not have to worry about anything. On the table, they are far ahead of their opponents. My opinion is that there are no teams right now that are capable of dethroning them at this point in time.

Palmeiras has only 7 point advantage over the second place, and only 11 points separate it from the other 7 teams. Well... we still have 10 games (if I'm not mistaken) to go until the end of the championship. So... nothing is decided yet.
Palmeiras just lost an important game in Libertadores, will they be able to channel more forces in the Brasileirão or will the climate of disappointment take over the team?

[Lucasgabd]

Right now, we are in the midst of a very interesting situation in the league. The Flamengo team is playing very well at the moment.
But it is the same with international. In addition to that, there are so many teams that are very close to each other. There is no doubt that a very simple mistake can have a very negative impact on any team and there will be a heavy price to pay for any team that makes this mistake.

However, Palmeiras do not have to worry about anything. On the table, they are far ahead of their opponents. My opinion is that there are no teams right now that are capable of dethroning them at this point in time.

Palmeiras has only 7 point advantage over the second place, and only 11 points separate it from the other 7 teams. Well... we still have 10 games (if I'm not mistaken) to go until the end of the championship. So... nothing is decided yet.
Palmeiras just lost an important game in Libertadores, will they be able to channel more forces in the Brasileirão or will the climate of disappointment take over the team?

well, 7 points of advantage is not so little, is it?
but you are right that nothing is decided yet, long way to go until the end of the championship

curious to know what will happen and how this will end.

[rdluffy]

well, 7 points of advantage is not so little, is it?
but you are right that nothing is decided yet, long way to go until the end of the championship

curious to know what will happen and how this will end.

This is the chance of Palmeiras right now



79% is good enough to bet on Palmeiras, even after they lost the semi finals of Libertadores
Chances of Flamengo are only 8.7%, after that, I can't believe in any possible title of Corinthians, Inter and Fluminese, even with mathematical chances still in play.

The battle for second place will be interesting.
Palmeiras only lose the title if a disaster occurs, like 4 lose matches in sequence, which is quite difficult to happen.

[alegotardo]

well, 7 points of advantage is not so little, is it?
but you are right that nothing is decided yet, long way to go until the end of the championship

curious to know what will happen and how this will end.

Nothing is guaranteed....
Today's situation is very similar to 2009 when Palmeiras won the classic against Santos in Vila Belmiro and shot to the top of the championship in the 27th round. Palmeiras, led by Muricy Ramalho at the time, had a five-point advantage over the second-placed team, São Paulo.
As incredible as it may seem, Flamengo, who was still in sixth place and with 10 points less, lifted the cup at the end of the championship, while Palmeiras couldn't even guarantee their spot for Libertadores.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Today there's no match of Brasileiro, but Copa do Brasil

2 great matches to watch, to have some emotion I think I'll make a double bet here hahaha, don't follow me anyone
obs - I didn't make this bet yet, I'm thinking, maybe only in Sao Paulo victory, paying 3.90



If anyone here is optmitisc about Sao Paulo, playing in home, capable of beat Flamengo, it's a great odd of 3.90 to São Paulo only victory
Maybe in Morumbi Sao Paulo can win, not impossible, they already did memorable matches in the finals.

Today is easy to watch Sao Paulo, Globo channel will stream the match, Corinthians only on SporTV and Premiere.

Well, not only here, I think that in the entire Brasileirao tournament, teams like Corinthians and Sao Paulo are some of my favorites, I can't leave Santos alone, who have now rehired Venezuelan Jeferson Soteldo, not to mention Palmeiras , for me these are the teams that will always have a high level, of course Flamengo has been having a great rise and this has been quite noticeable, but ultimately I think that the favorite for the Copa do Brasil there is Flamengo, of course This is simply one of the things that I like to speculate about in this tournament, and above all to see the quality of football shown, which has nothing to envy to Europep football.

well, 7 points of advantage is not so little, is it?
but you are right that nothing is decided yet, long way to go until the end of the championship

curious to know what will happen and how this will end.

Nothing is guaranteed....
Today's situation is very similar to 2009 when Palmeiras won the classic against Santos in Vila Belmiro and shot to the top of the championship in the 27th round. Palmeiras, led by Muricy Ramalho at the time, had a five-point advantage over the second-placed team, São Paulo.
As incredible as it may seem, Flamengo, who was still in sixth place and with 10 points less, lifted the cup at the end of the championship, while Palmeiras couldn't even guarantee their spot for Libertadores.

Wow yes, you reminded me of that great classic, and it's true what you say about Flamengo, they were in 6th and managed to come back and win everything, that was historic, it's incredible how similar these events are, I don't think they'll be repeated scenario like this, because they already have that experience, and the way Palmeiras is playing is very good, besides I can't say much about Santos, Santos always has good options so that he can make history, they have very good players, the club is good of Neymar and yes, very good players of international stature have been there, for me as I see things it is difficult for Flamengo to repeat the feat, but everything is possible.

[gagux123]

Well, I forgot to comment here...
In this round we will have several important games!

Internacional did its homework and beat Cuiabá; moving up to second place and touching Palmeiras.

Palmeiras and Flamengo will have easy games, and there will be great chances for these teams to win.

If Flamengo, Corinthians and Fluminense win and Palmeiras lose (which I think is unlikely), several teams will be fighting for the first place, and Palmeiras will be in a complicated situation if their performance decreases in the future!

My picks in this round! (green = winner)

FLUMINENSE X FORTALEZA

PALMEIRAS X JUVENTUDE

SAO PAULO X CORINTHIANS

CORITIBA X ATLETIGO - GO (tie game)

GOIAS X FLAMENGO

[rdluffy]

FLUMINENSE X FORTALEZA

PALMEIRAS X JUVENTUDE

SAO PAULO X CORINTHIANS

CORITIBA X ATLETIGO - GO (tie game)

GOIAS X FLAMENGO

My Corinthians will have the hardest match of all these games, and not playing home is a huge disadvantage. A draw will be good considering Sao Paulo, but Inter and Flamengo will open some good points ahead.

I agree with most of your predictions, but I think a draw of Sao Paulo vs Corinthians, and Atletico GO will win Coritiba.

I don't know if I'll place any bet in this round, I didn't find any good bets, and Corinthians vs Sao Paulo is unpredictable in my opinion, even if I think a draw is fair for both teams.

Just for curiosity, look what the odds look like for Palmeiras the first place, and Juventude the last one:



Only 1.20 for Palmeiras win

[gagux123]

My Corinthians will have the hardest match of all these games, and not playing home is a huge disadvantage. A draw will be good considering Sao Paulo, but Inter and Flamengo will open some good points ahead.

I agree with most of your predictions, but I think a draw of Sao Paulo vs Corinthians, and Atletico GO will win Coritiba.

I don't know if I'll place any bet in this round, I didn't find any good bets, and Corinthians vs Sao Paulo is unpredictable in my opinion, even if I think a draw is fair for both teams.

Just for curiosity, look what the odds look like for Palmeiras the first place, and Juventude the last one:



Only 1.20 for Palmeiras win

Your observation makes sense... But I don't know, Corinthians will do everything to beat Sao Paulo today.
Because if he loses, he will be distant from the other teams.

Sao Paulo will possibly save some players (in my opinion) and will focus on the Sul Americana finals.
Another relevant point, Gabriel Neves was injured and will not play in the Sul Americana finals for Sao Paulo 

[rdluffy]

Your observation makes sense... But I don't know, Corinthians will do everything to beat Sao Paulo today.
Because if he loses, he will be distant from the other teams.

Sao Paulo will possibly save some players (in my opinion) and will focus on the Sul Americana finals.
Another relevant point, Gabriel Neves was injured and will not play in the Sul Americana finals for Sao Paulo 

So, it was a draw hahaha

Sao Paulo 1 x 1 Corinthians
Corinthians lost position and now it's the 5th, what a shame



gagux, we both lost the prediction about Coritiba vs Atletico, like I said, I'm glad I didn't make any bet in this round, to many unpredictable matches in my opinion, and the ones like Palmeiras, did't pay well to take any risk
I think I'm going to put some bets on the next matches of Copa do Brasil on thursday, let's see.

[gagux123]

So, it was a draw hahaha

Sao Paulo 1 x 1 Corinthians
Corinthians lost position and now it's the 5th, what a shame



gagux, we both lost the prediction about Coritiba vs Atletico, like I said, I'm glad I didn't make any bet in this round, to many unpredictable matches in my opinion, and the ones like Palmeiras, did't pay well to take any risk
I think I'm going to put some bets on the next matches of Copa do Brasil on thursday, let's see.

Yes, exactly! Well at least some bets I won, others I didn't lol
Flamengo and Corinthians missed a great opportunity to touch Palmeiras in this championship

I just found out, in the next Brasileirão games, we will have several matches that will be unpredictable, as most of the teams are close to each other in the championship classification!

During the week I will observe some events regarding these teams, so when aproach one or two days earlier, I can have a better perception to bet.

[joker_josue]

Only 1.20 for Palmeiras win

Palmeiras' odds continue to be positive, and they have really won the league games.
But, they've been winning games by the slimmest of margins. Which shows how tired the team is and is accusing the large number of games it has had this season.

Will they continue to endure this final stretch of the season?

[rdluffy]

Palmeiras' odds continue to be positive, and they have really won the league games.
But, they've been winning games by the slimmest of margins. Which shows how tired the team is and is accusing the large number of games it has had this season.

Will they continue to endure this final stretch of the season?

It's positive, but i don't think it's worth to bet on Palmeiras only earning 1.20 of odds.

About endurance, I think Palmeiras is better than Flamengo right now, they only have Brasileiro to worry and play.
Flamengo will have to play Copa do Brasil and Libertadores, so, it's 3 or 4 more matches to play plus the psychological part of play 2 finals, and I think Palmeiras have this great advantage.
There are some journals in Brazil saying the same thing, Flamengo is starting to looking tired, 3 competitions at the same time is not easy, even with good players and well prepared.

The next match of Flamengo will be versus Sao Paulo, in Copa do Brasil 14/09

[gagux123]

The next match of Flamengo will be versus Sao Paulo, in Copa do Brasil 14/09

Wel... this will be an important match for both teams! And I have no doubt that it will be an excellent game, and I hope that this time Sao Paulo will take this victory against Flamengo lol

[Lucasgabd]

well, 7 points of advantage is not so little, is it?
but you are right that nothing is decided yet, long way to go until the end of the championship

curious to know what will happen and how this will end.

Nothing is guaranteed....
Today's situation is very similar to 2009 when Palmeiras won the classic against Santos in Vila Belmiro and shot to the top of the championship in the 27th round. Palmeiras, led by Muricy Ramalho at the time, had a five-point advantage over the second-placed team, São Paulo.
As incredible as it may seem, Flamengo, who was still in sixth place and with 10 points less, lifted the cup at the end of the championship, while Palmeiras couldn't even guarantee their spot for Libertadores.

nothing is guaranteed, but as rdluffy pointed out, 79% is quite high chance
only worth to bet against Palmeiras winning if there are great odds on that.

we'll see what is going to happen

[gagux123]

nothing is guaranteed, but as rdluffy pointed out, 79% is quite high chance
only worth to bet against Palmeiras winning if there are great odds on that.

we'll see what is going to happen

wow, I just checked, and I read a news, Palmeiras has almost 81% chance of winning the Brasileirao!

I know that, but anything can happen, but this is a very high percentage, unless there are unforeseen events for some other team to be champion and ""steal"" the title from Palmeiras.
Let's see what can happen by the end of November

Projeção indica Palmeiras já classificado na Libertadores e 81% de chances de título no Brasileirão (Projection indicates Palmeiras already classified in Libertadores and 81% of chances of title in the Brasileirão) - https://ge.globo.com/espiao-estatistico/noticia/2022/09/12/palmeiras-se-classifica-para-libertadores-2023-e-chances-de-ser-campeao-do-brasileirao-vao-a-81percent.ghtml

[joker_josue]

wow, I just checked, and I read a news, Palmeiras has almost 81% chance of winning the Brasileirao!

As long as it is mathematically possible for another team to reach first, victory is not guaranteed.
I also see some difficulty with Palmeiras now starting to lose several points in order to be overtaken by another team. But in football anything can happen, and it wouldn't be unheard of.

Now how many games are left until the end of the season?

[Lucasgabd]

wow, I just checked, and I read a news, Palmeiras has almost 81% chance of winning the Brasileirao!

As long as it is mathematically possible for another team to reach first, victory is not guaranteed.
I also see some difficulty with Palmeiras now starting to lose several points in order to be overtaken by another team. But in football anything can happen, and it wouldn't be unheard of.

Now how many games are left until the end of the season?

yes, 19% is not so small chance of somebody else winning
not like the probability of a meteor hitting our homes while we go out for coffee which is probably <0.0001%

The championship ends on November 13th, a sunday
we have 7 sundays until then
I'm not sure how long it is each "round"

[rdluffy]

Now how many games are left until the end of the season?

There are 20 teams, with 2 matches against each other, so it's 38 matches total.
All teams played 26 matches until now, and there's 12 remaining.
36 points in dispute for each team.

I like to see the math behind the championship and probabilities

In this year, Palmeiras have to focus on 81 points to have 100% of chances to be the champion, but usually a team needs something like 73 or 74 points to guarantee 1st place.