Are spectacular returns over for bitcoin?

[stompix]

Just 3x increase? I mean we moved from under 4k during march 2020 to 64k during april 2021, how is that just x3? You may calculate from the previous top to latest top, in that case it is 3x, but that would mean previous ones were not 10x neither, they were smaller.

Let's randomly pick some periods, right?
If you pick March 2020- April 2021 then you also have to look at the previous 13 months, so February 2019 and you will get a 1.2x, not even close to the 3x let's not even count 10x return. And in the other direction From April 2021 to May 2022 what we would need what for 10x, just $640k per coin, pretty achievable, right?

You put either a YOY or start of the year period and go from that trying to maximize the gains picking date will make other periods look far worse, at least use a monthly average scale.  Either way, the times of 3x and 10x a year are coming to an end, you simply can't have these anymore, not unless the $ turn to toilet paper, just imagine what two periods of 10x in 12 months would mean, a market cap of 68 trillion, where is that money going to come from?

Big whales are buying the dip. But I hope that big whales are not the only ones who are buying the dip now. If that's the case, that's definitely a way for Bitcoin to change hands from small retail owners to rich institutions.

If big whales would be buying the dip the price would have already skyrocketed past 40k, but since we haven't managed to bounce back over 40k it means one thing only, the number of coins so-called whales are buying is lower than the amount poeple are selling.  I doubt there are whales buying in that much, other than some isolated cases I think almost everyone that has plans on holding and is not interested in trading the swings is waiting on the side, probably they think that missing an opportunity is better than catching a knife, although I don't see why it should get way lower than this in the current situation.

[Wong Gendheng]

I often hear discussions that the market is getting saturated and whales will not return to cryptocurrencies, maybe this is a negative issue that we usually hear but at least we will see again in 6 months, if bitcoin can't make new ATH again, of course we have to be vigilant.

[DeathAngel]

Spectacular returns are not over for bitcoin. I think the pandemic potentially made this bull run lighter than it otherwise would have been/ it’s fine, we will see over 150k in 2025 the next bull run after 2024 halving. Maybe it’s bearish years now but 2025 rise a lot.

[TheEconomists]

We already touched 65K right so that is somewhere in the region of the calculation so I consider it as the ATH and I expect the further price hike in the next cycle depends on lot of factors. Yesterday we saw another nose dive followed by 7% spike now again its in mid 36k but still I don't think its recovery I am waiting for the price to fall below, anything below 20K will be the good time for me to invest all the profits I made from the previous cycle.

Below 20K? It will need a major FUD for that to happened since the only for the price to go that low is when institutional investors already sell all there holdings. There is no way that retail investors will dump hard the price in the face the institutional investors. Below 20K price is a good price to enter but the main question is when will it happened.

"When will it happen " is a very good question and if anyone can answer that then traders will not have issues than to be making cool money from trading. Since we don't know or we are not optimistic about the direction of the market then it becomes a game of chance.

[romero121]

Spectacular returns are not over for bitcoin. I think the pandemic potentially made this bull run lighter than it otherwise would have been/ it’s fine, we will see over 150k in 2025 the next bull run after 2024 halving. Maybe it’s bearish years now but 2025 rise a lot.

Pandemic have played a big role in the progress of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. During the pandemic market became more visible to the common people. Slowly people got much aware about it and started investing. This is where the change happened, if not we would've experienced a slower growth by now. There is more chance for a bear market until the halving, and this doesn't move deep down. The market will fluctuate and move within limits than reaching big.

[Silberman]

Spectacular returns are not over for bitcoin. I think the pandemic potentially made this bull run lighter than it otherwise would have been

I am not so sure about that, after all we saw a massive amount of money being printed all over the world and without a doubt that helped bitcoin to grow in value so quickly, and while governments inflate fiat all the time this time around they really abused of that power due to the pandemic, after all institutional investors really began to be interested in bitcoin once the governments increased the rate of their printing machines and they we are looking for a store of value to endure the storm that was coming, so if anything I would say the pandemic was on average positive for bitcoin.

[STT]

BTC continues to move rapidly, at present after achieving a low ever since it seems to have a strong trend upwards and as always BTC is far more rapid moving then most assets.   Price tends to spike into periods of positive action and sometimes the opposite but overall its clear that BTC vastly outperforms most normal markets in the range of its gains, this comes with much volatility so beware of relying on regular returns.

[Silberman]

Spectacular returns are not over for bitcoin. I think the pandemic potentially made this bull run lighter than it otherwise would have been/ it’s fine, we will see over 150k in 2025 the next bull run after 2024 halving. Maybe it’s bearish years now but 2025 rise a lot.

Pandemic have played a big role in the progress of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. During the pandemic market became more visible to the common people. Slowly people got much aware about it and started investing. This is where the change happened, if not we would've experienced a slower growth by now. There is more chance for a bear market until the halving, and this doesn't move deep down. The market will fluctuate and move within limits than reaching big.

I do not think it was the pandemic directly which caused the price of bitcoin to go up but the consequences of it, the government began to print a lot of money in order to protect their economies due to the reduction in the productivity of the people as we were sent to our homes and the reduction in taxes that the government had to suffer, this brought inflation and then investors tried to find a way to protect themselves from those effects, and they found in bitcoin a good way to do this, which is what caused the growth that we saw during 2020 and 2021.

[StreakW]

Indeed bitcoin has experienced a very sharp decline in price in the last few months. But despite the bearish conditions across the crypto market at the moment, I believe that the bull market is not over yet. Currently, bitcoin and other crypto-assets are struggling to bounce off their current lows. Therefore, there is a possibility for an increase again before another correction occurs.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Indeed bitcoin has experienced a very sharp decline in price in the last few months. But despite the bearish conditions across the crypto market at the moment, I believe that the bull market is not over yet. Currently, bitcoin and other crypto-assets are struggling to bounce off their current lows. Therefore, there is a possibility for an increase again before another correction occurs.

When you look at the post above, some members didn't show the bullishness on bitcoin this year. However, in the last 2 days, the price seems to be skyrocketed as one thread says. And now we did go above $41k, a good indication that the bulls might be back in the market. Nevertheless, this might be just for short term spike though, the biggest picture is how the price will do at the end of the year to say that the bulls are back in the market.

[Silberman]

Indeed bitcoin has experienced a very sharp decline in price in the last few months. But despite the bearish conditions across the crypto market at the moment, I believe that the bull market is not over yet. Currently, bitcoin and other crypto-assets are struggling to bounce off their current lows. Therefore, there is a possibility for an increase again before another correction occurs.

When you look at the post above, some members didn't show the bullishness on bitcoin this year. However, in the last 2 days, the price seems to be skyrocketed as one thread says. And now we did go above $41k, a good indication that the bulls might be back in the market. Nevertheless, this might be just for short term spike though, the biggest picture is how the price will do at the end of the year to say that the bulls are back in the market.

It is going to be interesting to see what happens next, obviously I am happy about the recovery that we saw, but right now the price is struggling again to go up, so there is a high possibility that the price overcorrected when it went down and what we are seeing is nothing more but a few whales taking advantage of it to get some cheap coins while at the same time they do not really have any intention to try to push the price of bitcoin any higher.

[Captain Corporate]

It is going to be interesting to see what happens next, obviously I am happy about the recovery that we saw, but right now the price is struggling again to go up, so there is a high possibility that the price overcorrected when it went down and what we are seeing is nothing more but a few whales taking advantage of it to get some cheap coins while at the same time they do not really have any intention to try to push the price of bitcoin any higher.

 There is this hesitation in the market and that is the main problem. People do not want to sell right now because it looks like it is going up, but people do not want to buy neither because it looks like it is failing to go further up. So people do not know what to do, mainly holding it and liquidity drops down after a while as well if you remove all the whales. This is the problem we are facing right now, we have no idea what to do. I am glad that I keep buying, that is a good thing for me in the long run even if it drops today, but the short term people and the traders are in a big pickle right now and its hard for them to make a decision.

[Oceat]

It is going to be interesting to see what happens next, obviously I am happy about the recovery that we saw, but right now the price is struggling again to go up, so there is a high possibility that the price overcorrected when it went down and what we are seeing is nothing more but a few whales taking advantage of it to get some cheap coins while at the same time they do not really have any intention to try to push the price of bitcoin any higher.

 There is this hesitation in the market and that is the main problem. People do not want to sell right now because it looks like it is going up, but people do not want to buy neither because it looks like it is failing to go further up. So people do not know what to do, mainly holding it and liquidity drops down after a while as well if you remove all the whales. This is the problem we are facing right now, we have no idea what to do. I am glad that I keep buying, that is a good thing for me in the long run even if it drops today, but the short term people and the traders are in a big pickle right now and its hard for them to make a decision.

It seems like Bitcoin price is not really moving but we can see that lots of them are buying and selling that's why the price continue to move up and down a little. We are all holding too long but that doesn't mean we should have to dump I still believe Bitcoin will try its best to get close at almost $70k.

Although, we will see a lot of bloodbath if we want to do that but whatever it's for the pump. Let's just wait a little and persevere because it seems like a bull trap to me, so there's a possibility of someone would be trying to dump though. I think $30k isn't being tested yet so I would like to really wait for more.

[Silberman]

It is going to be interesting to see what happens next, obviously I am happy about the recovery that we saw, but right now the price is struggling again to go up, so there is a high possibility that the price overcorrected when it went down and what we are seeing is nothing more but a few whales taking advantage of it to get some cheap coins while at the same time they do not really have any intention to try to push the price of bitcoin any higher.

 There is this hesitation in the market and that is the main problem. People do not want to sell right now because it looks like it is going up, but people do not want to buy neither because it looks like it is failing to go further up. So people do not know what to do, mainly holding it and liquidity drops down after a while as well if you remove all the whales. This is the problem we are facing right now, we have no idea what to do. I am glad that I keep buying, that is a good thing for me in the long run even if it drops today, but the short term people and the traders are in a big pickle right now and its hard for them to make a decision.

I agree with your perspective, the market is undecided about which direction to take and I think this could last for a very long time, after all the price cannot go down that much as the whales will buy any bitcoin available below the 40k level, but retail investors are scared to buy right now, so we will need some kind of external factor to break this deadlock and finally convince the market participants about the direction that the market will take during the next months.

[tygeade]

I agree with your perspective, the market is undecided about which direction to take and I think this could last for a very long time, after all the price cannot go down that much as the whales will buy any bitcoin available below the 40k level, but retail investors are scared to buy right now, so we will need some kind of external factor to break this deadlock and finally convince the market participants about the direction that the market will take during the next months.

I would guess that it could still go down, and it could still go down too much, like 20k. However, the reality is that whales do not just "not let it happen", they simply accumulate during that period. They have more data than we could ever hope for which means that we are in a situation where we could technically see whales who end up seeing how much they could buy without disturbing the market movement.

So, if it goes down 10%, they check how much they could buy to make it a 9% drop without no increase at all, just buy within the system while going down to make it look like it is failing to stop going down. That way it still goes down, but they are collecting it while it is going down. When the price goes up, they end up making a profit.

[philipma1957]

I think this will have to be considered. Especially if we don't break $70K in this cycle, which would be only 3.5x the ath of the previous cycle.

Call me pessimistic if you want, but being as we are, with institutional adoption, starting state adoption in some cases, Bitcoins leaving the exchanges for a long time, hashrate at maximums, everyone with bullish predictions for last year, even former Bitcoin haters reconverted, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

What is clear is that it is easier for something worth $0.01 to become worth $1 than for something worth $10K to become worth $1M.

Thus, maybe the most we can expect for future cycles is a tripling of the previous ath. Maybe quadruple in some given cycle. But not to multiply the previous ath by 20 or more.

On a personal level, nothing changes for me. I have been doing DCA for years with the S&P 500 and I've been through similar bumps, if the price goes down, you keep buying and forget about it, just like if it goes up a lot. So I will continue to do the same both with the S&P and Bitcoin.

What I do think needs to be considered, especially if the price does not recover this year, are more realistic return forecasts for the future.

well what is spectacular ?

  gold in 1999 was $250
 gold in 2022 is say $1750


the dollar moved from 1 to 1.84 in that time frame

so 1750/250 = 7 to 1  last 22 years for gold

and dollar dropped 1.84 to 1

so about 4x for gold over 22 years.

do I think BTC will do 4x from 69k or 276k by the year 2043 yeah easy.  but many would think 4 x in 22 years is not much gain

do I think btc will be 1 million by 2043 not sure. realistically 1 million for btc may never happen.

[ShowOff]

I am considering investing more in bitcoin during a price correction although I know what other risks there are when I buy on a dip. Sometimes taking decisions is not easy because it is a risky investment but I just try to do it as long as I can bear the loss. When I start thinking about long term targets then everything seems safe to do with bitcoin where price volatility is not the reason why I shouldn't buy and collect more.

I would guess that it could still go down, and it could still go down too much, like 20k. However, the reality is that whales do not just "not let it happen", they simply accumulate during that period. They have more data than we could ever hope for which means that we are in a situation where we could technically see whales who end up seeing how much they could buy without disturbing the market movement.

So, if it goes down 10%, they check how much they could buy to make it a 9% drop without no increase at all, just buy within the system while going down to make it look like it is failing to stop going down. That way it still goes down, but they are collecting it while it is going down. When the price goes up, they end up making a profit.

This has become a very familiar trend among traders and investors. Accumulate with each dip, collect more and hold for the long term. Although profits are not guaranteed, 1 bitcoin will still be 1 bitcoin if we really keep it safe.

[buwaytress]

Hey OP, didn't see this earlier I think, and hadn't taken you for an S&P vet -- though am not surprised given the quality of your contributions and comments.

I went through this phase actually even in 2020 -- I'd always held that the rally was coming and when it did, was only strengthened in my belief that the super cycles are over. Last year only cemented that belief -- even when 100k was still in play, it represented a "mere" 5x of the previous ATH, and the market thus far already to me invalidates the 12-month odd rally phase that many (including myself) had been expecting.

Doesn't change my decided stance with Bitcoin. It's the price of maturity. And it's a fair price.

[ShowOff]

Waiting for the price of bitcoin to drop to $20k is very unlikely to happen, look at the decline last month bitcoin only fell to $30k especially now bitcoin has started pumping itself again to the price of $42k and $43k.

There has to be bigger bad news than the China ban or any crypto ban in any country as well as the cancellation of Tesla's adoption as a means of payment to make bitcoin price drop by more than 60% ATH in one month. This means that there is a more than 60% chance of a decline in the future and you can't turn it down if something bad happens to bitcoin. If you think $100K is possible, then you should also believe $10K is possible even though bitcoin is currently trading at $44K.

I just thought of something reasonable about the price of bitcoin because so far its price fluctuations have given me a lot of experience. There is always an opportunity to make a profit if you truly believe in bitcoin, but most traders are not brave enough to do so simply because they want to buy at a lower price.

[24Kt]

BTC continues to move rapidly, at present after achieving a low ever since it seems to have a strong trend upwards and as always BTC is far more rapid moving then most assets.   Price tends to spike into periods of positive action and sometimes the opposite but overall its clear that BTC vastly outperforms most normal markets in the range of its gains, this comes with much volatility so beware of relying on regular returns.

The market is yet waking up to the speculation that bitcoin may hit $70k this year and taking the run from last week standing above $40k is a good start for the year and hopefully we can keep seeing the bull riding upfront. Today price is looking good at $44k hitting of more high is just around the time with binance partnership with Forbes magazine.

The partnership of Binance with Forbes may really of help when it comes to not spreading lies and nonfactual crypto-related articles. Definitely, this partnership has motives in terms of marketing, promotion of binance platform. But also, in the process, binance team has also the privilege to say something if their journalists are writing negative articles towards crypto especially if they are not supported by facts. With this high-value collaboration, some people may take a look at binance or other crypto sites and will be soon part of crypto community, which means, more adoption.