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Author Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]  (Read 102169 times)
DaRude
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Today at 12:06:33 PM
Last edit: Today at 12:42:12 PM by DaRude
 #9541

As you probably hear, local ceasefire in Russian occupied Oleshky continue, people are being evacuated, humanitarian aid is delivered. All would be good, but meanwhile in other regions of Ukraine Russian attacks is getting even more cynical, they intensified attacks on civilian objects and killed almost 30 people over last day. Most horrible attack happened in Dnipro train station where at least 14 people were killed
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c60me298k1yeo
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-27-injure-128-over-past-day-as-horrific-attack-strikes-dnipro-train-station/

Care to entertain us with your hypothesis on why there is a humanitarian crisis for civilians in Oleshky in the first place? Other cities under Russia's control further from the front line oddly don't seem to have issues with food or water and civilians are living there just fine.

Oleshky sits in a place that happens to have bunches of Russians and Ukrainians living there at the same time. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can attack Oleshky because of this.

Ukraine is moving Ukrainians out by one bridge and many boats across the Dnipro River - the ones who are willing to leave - with the idea that the boats can bring in Ukrainian troops on the return trip to pick up more civilians. However, Oleshky is completely controlled by Russian forces, currently.

But Ukraine has the high ground, the strategic ground, Kherson, on the other side of the Dnipro River. So, except for the fact that there are a whole bunch of Ukrainian civilians in Oleshky, Ukraine would have been attacking already.

Russia, on the other hand, is looking for methods for bringing supplies too Oleshky. But Ukraine won't allow that. Ukraine wants only evacuation. So, a little agreement was reached between Ukraine and Russia, to not attack each other while evacuation is in progress.

The reason why Russia agrees to this is that the November and December cold weather is moving in. Russia can get supplies from the South and East, and once the civilians are gone, and Ukrainian troops have moved in, Russia can attack and wipe out the Ukrainian troops.

Nobody really knows what the outcome will be in Oleshky. But it will probably follow what is happening throughout Ukraine right now... approximately 2 million dead, rookie troops with improper training, and Ukraine falling and failing all over the place.


Cool

Oleshky has been under Russian control for almost 5 years now. It makes no sense for Russia to attack it.

All evacuations are happening through deep inside Russia, no one is going across Dnieper either by bridge or by boats.


Russia has troops pretty much everywhere along the frontline. Russia is also mostly on the offensive and somehow doesn't have issues supplying it's troops along the full 1.200km frontline. Here in Oleshky, everyone knows who caused the humanitarian crisis for civilians on the Russian side. Civilians are being attacked and suffering due to lack of food and water. It's one thing for Russia to supply their military force on the frontline and another to supply a besieged civilian population. So everyone should welcome this move, military can fight but civilian suffering should be minimized.

Trying to supply your contingent by boats over Dnieper would be suicidal unless you have enough forces to secure huge bridgehead. Which Ukraine just doesn't have. But Ukrainian command did try some dumb stuff before just for PR and to post few pictures.


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BADecker
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Today at 01:18:53 PM
 #9542


~

Oleshky sits in a place that happens to have bunches of Russians and Ukrainians living there at the same time. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can attack Oleshky because of this.

Ukraine is moving Ukrainians out by one bridge and many boats across the Dnipro River - the ones who are willing to leave - with the idea that the boats can bring in Ukrainian troops on the return trip to pick up more civilians. However, Oleshky is completely controlled by Russian forces, currently.

But Ukraine has the high ground, the strategic ground, Kherson, on the other side of the Dnipro River. So, except for the fact that there are a whole bunch of Ukrainian civilians in Oleshky, Ukraine would have been attacking already.

Russia, on the other hand, is looking for methods for bringing supplies too Oleshky. But Ukraine won't allow that. Ukraine wants only evacuation. So, a little agreement was reached between Ukraine and Russia, to not attack each other while evacuation is in progress.

The reason why Russia agrees to this is that the November and December cold weather is moving in. Russia can get supplies from the South and East, and once the civilians are gone, and Ukrainian troops have moved in, Russia can attack and wipe out the Ukrainian troops.

Nobody really knows what the outcome will be in Oleshky. But it will probably follow what is happening throughout Ukraine right now... approximately 2 million dead, rookie troops with improper training, and Ukraine falling and failing all over the place.


Cool

Oleshky has been under Russian control for almost 5 years now. It makes no sense for Russia to attack it.

All evacuations are happening through deep inside Russia, no one is going across Dnieper either by bridge or by boats.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/1330/live/29e071c0-d460-11f1-a701-fddedf244c16.png

Russia has troops pretty much everywhere along the frontline. Russia is also mostly on the offensive and somehow doesn't have issues supplying it's troops along the full 1.200km frontline. Here in Oleshky, everyone knows who caused the humanitarian crisis for civilians on the Russian side. Civilians are being attacked and suffering due to lack of food and water. It's one thing for Russia to supply their military force on the frontline and another to supply a besieged civilian population. So everyone should welcome this move, military can fight but civilian suffering should be minimized.

Trying to supply your contingent by boats over Dnieper would be suicidal unless you have enough forces to secure huge bridgehead. Which Ukraine just doesn't have. But Ukrainian command did try some dumb stuff before just for PR and to post few pictures.


Kherson is the high ground. Ukraine still holds it. Their idea is to reinforce it at the same time they are moving their civilians out of Oleshky.

Certainly Russia can come in with their air force and bomb the daylights out of Kherson. But they don't want to kill civilians for a place that is not strategically beneficial for them, except that it is high ground.

What is high ground? It's a place where you can fire down into lowlands much easier. Sure, it is PR for Ukraine to fire down into Oleshky, once the civilians are gone. But as I said, Russia simply has to wait for the cold weather. And ultimately they will take out the Ukrainian forces that move into Oleshky from across the river.

And like we both indicated, Ukraine is a cornered rat. They will fight fiercely... and die. But there is a glimmer of light for them that suggests this just might be the thing that works.

Ukraine is already New Russia, and they know it. So, they will try anything, hoping they just might get lucky this time. Besides, the PR just might work.


Cool

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paxmao
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Today at 03:16:14 PM
 #9543

[...]

Oleshky has been under Russian control for almost 5 years now. It makes no sense for Russia to attack it.


Russia has troops pretty much everywhere along the frontline. Russia is also mostly on the offensive

Trying to supply your contingent by boats over Dnieper would be suicidal unless you have enough forces to secure huge bridgehead. Which Ukraine just doesn't have. But Ukrainian command did try some dumb stuff before just for PR and to post few pictures.



AFAIK, Ruzzia is using the truce to move troops in Oleshky. The "control" may be as good as the control in other "controlled" areas.

Mostly on the offensive. What do you think about something called operation Vivaldi?

Do you think that there may be something similar happening right now in a different direction?
BADecker
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Today at 08:09:43 PM
 #9544

[...]

Oleshky has been under Russian control for almost 5 years now. It makes no sense for Russia to attack it.


Russia has troops pretty much everywhere along the frontline. Russia is also mostly on the offensive

Trying to supply your contingent by boats over Dnieper would be suicidal unless you have enough forces to secure huge bridgehead. Which Ukraine just doesn't have. But Ukrainian command did try some dumb stuff before just for PR and to post few pictures.



AFAIK, Ruzzia is using the truce to move troops in Oleshky. The "control" may be as good as the control in other "controlled" areas.

Mostly on the offensive. What do you think about something called operation Vivaldi?

Do you think that there may be something similar happening right now in a different direction?

You are so backward, always focusing on little happenings to try to bring fear to Russians, while hiding the truth from the people of the West.

What do you think about Russia firing a Bulava missile from the sea of Okhotsk? Why hasn't there been any confirmation of this in western media? Does Russia have to use the nukes that this missile can carry to prove to the West and their media that such really happened?


RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR SIGNAL: A BULAVA MISSILE FIRED FROM BENEATH THE SEA OF OKHOTSK



https://www.linkedin.com/posts/russias-nuclear-signal-a-bulava-missile-ugcPost-7521614138603884544-MPz3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAABuG4EBGoGJX-VaX1Cs9xFysGE1CQfqFog
On 28 October 2026, Russia released footage of the Pacific Fleet's Generalissimus Suvorov, a Borei-A-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, launching an RSM-56 Bulava missile from beneath the Sea of Okhotsk.

According to Russia's Ministry of Defence, the missile's warheads reached the designated Chizha test range in the Arkhangelsk region, near the Kanin Peninsula. Russian authorities described the launch as part of the crew's scheduled combat training.

The reported trajectory covered approximately 5,500–6,000 kilometres across Russia a demonstration of the reach of Moscow's sea-based nuclear deterrent.

1?? A submarine is a survivable nuclear platform.

Unlike fixed land-based missile sites, ballistic missile submarines can operate while concealed underwater. Their ability to remain undetected makes them a critical component of a nuclear second-strike capability: the ability to retaliate even after an adversary's first strike.

2?? One submarine represents substantial firepower.

The Borei-A-class Generalissimus Suvorov can carry up to 16 Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The Bulava has an estimated maximum range of approximately 8,300 kilometres, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The missile is designed to carry multiple independently targetable nuclear warheads. This does not mean that every missile carries its maximum possible warhead load in every deployment.

3?? Geography is part of the strategic message.

The Sea of Okhotsk lies in Russia's Far East, north of Japan. The designated test range is in northwestern Russia, demonstrating the ability to launch from the Pacific region towards a target thousands of kilometres away.

This is not simply about the missile. It is also about the survivability, readiness and reach of Russia's strategic nuclear forces.

4?? Routine training can still communicate strategic intent.

Russia says the launch followed its combat training plan. That explanation should be taken into account, rather than automatically treating the event as a direct threat or an imminent escalation.

Nevertheless, demonstrating that a submarine can launch a strategic missile from a submerged position sends a reminder of Russia's nuclear capabilities at a time of continuing tensions between Moscow and Western countries.

?? The important distinction: Russia has reported a successful test, but its claims about the warheads reaching the designated area have not been independently verified by the reporting cited below.
...



Cool

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