Why putin choose winter?

[laredo7mm]

We all know that there is tension on the Russia-Ukraine border. I am not going to talk about why this is happening, I think most of us already know that.

Maybe this is the right time for Putin to play with Ukraine. Because the price of fuel in the world market is skyrocketing. Gas prices in Europe have risen by 600%. It is now wintering in Europe. Heaters/burners are needed to survive in ice-covered Europe. That is why the demand for gas is the highest.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

Putin is a master planner or going to face heavy sanctions from the EU?

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[usekevin]

We all know that there is tension on the Russia-Ukraine border. I am not going to talk about why this is happening, I think most of us already know that.

Maybe this is the right time for Putin to play with Ukraine. Because the price of fuel in the world market is skyrocketing. Gas prices in Europe have risen by 600%. It is now wintering in Europe. Heaters/burners are needed to survive in ice-covered Europe. That is why the demand for gas is the highest.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

Putin is a master planner or going to face heavy sanctions from the EU?

Seems to be true mate.EU had a demand on gas with the Russia, So they won't do some sanctions on Russia. Instead they do the peace talk. Only peace talk work with the Russia.As we Russia is a most powerful country as like the United Status. People won't forget about the Cold war between the United States and Russia.Russian are doing this for the Control over the Ukraine. But they had forgotten it, Ukraine is past brother of them.

[cabron]

EU didn't support war actaully in fact Germany and France disapprove of sending military equipment to Ukraine. It's not about Putin choosing Winter, it's the US traveling far away to the east chosing winter. It's a bloodbath for the US to go to Ukraine for war because the surrounding countries of Ukraine will eat them alive. They have enough of the US meddling with Arab countries.

Why in the world will Putin invade Ukraine when they are already there from the beginning, the people in Ukraine more than 60% is a Russian speaker. The countries surrounding it are Russian speakers. They wouldn't wait for the US to reach there if they have to invade Ukraine, they would have done it a long time ago.

The US is just confused about what to do with thier economy and they don't want the EU to be independent with gas. They need to destroy the gas pipeline of Russia to Germany so the EU will still need the US for gas and attacking Russia will be a good solution.

[stompix]

The US is just confused about what to do with thier economy and they don't want the EU to be independent with gas. They need to destroy the gas pipeline of Russia to Germany so the EU will still need the US for gas and attacking Russia will be a good solution.

What twisted logic you have there!
So the US doesn't want the EU to be independent with gas, they need to destroy the pipeline that actually is making the EU dependent on Russia.
Honestly, do you even bother to think about what you write here?
If you depend on a manufacturer for all your spare parts and that manufacturer is not able to sell you parts and you shut down, have you actually lost your independence, or do you realize you have been totally dependent on it?

It's a bloodbath for the US to go to Ukraine for war because the surrounding countries of Ukraine will eat them alive.

Who, Romania and Poland? Those countries hate Russia more than any country in Europe. Do you think they have forgotten what the USSR did, actually do they teach you in your history manuals how many Romanians and Polish people Russians have killed?
Besides, what bloodbath? Ukraine is inviting the US to defend its territory, just like Syria invited Russian troops, just how Kazakhstan did, why can't Ukraine decide for itself!? All Russia has to do to avoid a war is keep its army where it belongs, but yeah, quite hard for them to do so.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed.

For starters is 40% of the imports, not of the consumption.
Second, if you have less than 30% gas you don't shut down everything, you shut down 30% of the consumers and the rest keep going.
On top of that, it's not like every country is going to be affected, Denmark Portugal, and Spain are not consuming Russian gas at all, France, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands are between  5 and 20% dependent.

If indeed the supply is shut, there is a temporary solution, shut down all ga powerplants and revive coal and oil powerplants and maximum capacity, that will give a breather for a while, right now with the current reserves enough to make it through March, when in half of Europe there is no need for heating anymore.

Of course, the consequences will dire, but what is Russia going to do with a 15% cut in its GDP?

[cabron]

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

They are thinking not just twice in fact Bulgaria as well did not want Russia-US war because they know there is no imminent Ukraine invasion. The last time there was so much miscommunication was in WW1 and just a shot fired and they are in a war. This is what the Biden administration is confusing and they themselves are confused on what to do. Why would the EU want war when they are going to be affected too?

Blinken rushes to meet Lavrov to respond to Russia's proposal for peace but Bliken is not willing to publicize thier reply?  

The US told their ambassadors to get out of Ukraine to prepare for something to happen but the Ukraine president actually said everything in under control. The truth is that they were shhush away by every country there. Even Ukraine is not wanting war, it's just the media telling us there will be.

[Darker45]

I guess the winter has nothing to do with this. This standoff has been going on for years, all seasons long. Even before the annexation of Russia of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, the conflict between the two countries was already there. It wasn't as worse as now but it was already present. It mattered a lot that the leadership of Ukraine changed from pro-Russia to pro-Europe. But even prior to that, the two countries already have their history.

But still I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon, not within the winter at least, if at all. But things will depend on how negotiations will develop. I am still hopeful that despite the military buildup there won't be any war, though.

[DrBeer]

Why winter? Because the Kremlin terrorists need an environment in which, by cutting off gas supplies to the EU, they can achieve the maximum effect, demoralizing the population. The freezing population in the country is a very strong challenge to the government of the country. This is a method of forcing the Kremlin, the EU countries, to coordinate the launch of NordStream-2 as quickly as possible (without it, they say, it is not possible to supply the necessary amount of gas to the EU), and also to cancel or not take new sanctions against the Russian Federation. Looking at EU gas reserves and supplies, alternative channels provide nearly all of the required gas for EU industry, but not enough to heat homes. The goal of the economic terrorists was precisely the inhabitants - the task was to "freeze" them in order to put pressure on the governments of the countries. But, in reality, it turned out that even the weather turned out to be on the side of the people, and somewhat spoiled the economic terrorist attack - there is no very cold winter in the EU this year, gas consumption has been reduced, which means that the available reserves should be enough not to kneel before the Kremlin terrorists .. .
And apparently the United States, the Saudis, Norway will now compensate for the shortfalls, thereby replacing and squeezing Russian gas out of the EU market. So Putin essentially "shot himself in the foot", which is typical of him

[laredo7mm]

I guess the winter has nothing to do with this. This standoff has been going on for years, all seasons long. Even before the annexation of Russia of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, the conflict between the two countries was already there. It wasn't as worse as now but it was already present. It mattered a lot that the leadership of Ukraine changed from pro-Russia to pro-Europe. But even prior to that, the two countries already have their history.

But still I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon, not within the winter at least, if at all. But things will depend on how negotiations will develop. I am still hopeful that despite the military buildup there won't be any war, though.

Actually, I am talking about Putin's tactical move on the Ukraine border. The tension was there for a long time but Putin didn't act on summer. Why he is taking action this winter? Because he knew EU doesn't have enough structure to import enough gas from other countries in a short time. So they must be dependent on Russias gas supply for this winter. If Putin has done this in the summer, then there won't be any problem for the EU because they would build infrastructure to import gas from other sources. Putin has done this so that the EU can not take any action to save their people from freezing to death.

If the EU doesn't want any conflict, they must agree upon any decision that favors Russia. This could be a secret deal or ukarin agree on not joining NATO. If anything happens will be on this winter for sure. Either Putin will occupy Ukrain or he will put a pro-Russian Govt or war.

[NeuroticFish]

Actually, I am talking about Putin's tactical move on the Ukraine border. The tension was there for a long time but Putin didn't act on summer. Why he is taking action this winter?

There are 2 good reasons:
* he can play chess with Russia's gas
* he knows that the tanks can march on ice, but not on mud

I believe that he has thought on both these.

If the EU doesn't want any conflict, they must agree upon any decision that favors Russia. This could be a secret deal or ukarin agree on not joining NATO. If anything happens will be on this winter for sure. Either Putin will occupy Ukrain or he will put a pro-Russian Govt or war.

If they agree on NATO thing, then Russia will find something else, don't worry.
Also Europe on one hand don't want to upset Russia (gas & other reasons), while they want to appear strong (ha-ha) and want to look like they care about Ukraine's borders.
Many of Europe's actions are imho only a facade, sadly. Else, they could have helped liberating Crimea, and they didn't. Actually I don't know why Russia wants now more of Ukraine's lands (and which ones). Crimea may still have oil, Crimea has a lot of off-shore gas fields, it was a good business. The rest... I don't know.
There may be that this sad chess game is only to convince the "high powers" recognize that Crimea is now part of Russia?!

[laredo7mm]

If the EU doesn't want any conflict, they must agree upon any decision that favors Russia. This could be a secret deal or ukarin agree on not joining NATO. If anything happens will be on this winter for sure. Either Putin will occupy Ukrain or he will put a pro-Russian Govt or war.

If they agree on NATO thing, then Russia will find something else, don't worry.
Also Europe on one hand don't want to upset Russia (gas & other reasons), while they want to appear strong (ha-ha) and want to look like they care about Ukraine's borders.
Many of Europe's actions are imho only a facade, sadly. Else, they could have helped liberating Crimea, and they didn't. Actually I don't know why Russia wants now more of Ukraine's lands (and which ones). Crimea may still have oil, Crimea has a lot of off-shore gas fields, it was a good business. The rest... I don't know.
There may be that this sad chess game is only to convince the "high powers" recognize that Crimea is now part of Russia?!

Actually, Crimea was necessary for Russia not only for natural resources but also for its strategic naval value. Crimea had Russian naval base even when it was a part of Ukraine and Russia was operating its operations by leasing them. To get access to the black sea Russia needs that part of Ukraine So it was important for them to take control over that strategic important location and I think this is the same reason Russia needs Ukraine too. Ukraine has many important military infrastructures due to its being part of the former soviet union. Russia just wants to make sure those can not get in the hands of the USA or their Allies nations.

[NeuroticFish]

Actually, Crimea was necessary for Russia not only for natural resources but also for its strategic naval value. Crimea had Russian naval base even when it was a part of Ukraine and Russia was operating its operations by leasing them. To get access to the black sea Russia needs that part of Ukraine So it was important for them to take control over that strategic important location

It's indeed an interesting and probably valid point too.

and I think this is the same reason Russia needs Ukraine too. Ukraine has many important military infrastructures due to its being part of the former soviet union. Russia just wants to make sure those can not get in the hands of the USA or their Allies nations.

Um... here you may have a point, but I'm not that much convinced. It's super outdated technology there and whatever "secrets" would be there, I'm almost sure that those were sold to all the interested nations long ago. And Russia knows that, so I don't see a real benefit there. And the actual devices... they may very well lay in rust...

[mindrust]

We all know that there is tension on the Russia-Ukraine border. I am not going to talk about why this is happening, I think most of us already know that.

Maybe this is the right time for Putin to play with Ukraine. Because the price of fuel in the world market is skyrocketing. Gas prices in Europe have risen by 600%. It is now wintering in Europe. Heaters/burners are needed to survive in ice-covered Europe. That is why the demand for gas is the highest.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

Putin is a master planner or going to face heavy sanctions from the EU?

You figured that right. The civilization needs energy to operate and Europe takes their energy mostly from Russia. This is Putin's powerplay, showing who is the boss. We'll see if Europe will keep being a tough guy while they are buying energy from their "enemy".

If Putin cuts off gas supplies, Europeans will freeze to death and there will be lots of rebellion and shit.

[DVlog]

and I think this is the same reason Russia needs Ukraine too. Ukraine has many important military infrastructures due to its being part of the former soviet union. Russia just wants to make sure those can not get in the hands of the USA or their Allies nations.

Um... here you may have a point, but I'm not that much convinced. It's super outdated technology there and whatever "secrets" would be there, I'm almost sure that those were sold to all the interested nations long ago. And Russia knows that, so I don't see a real benefit there. And the actual devices... they may very well lay in rust...

Apart from geostrategic or economic value, Russia's interest in Ukraine is elsewhere.  Putin wants to restore some of Russia's old glory he lost during the Cold War.  Russian officials have denied any possible invasion in Ukraine, but the removal of US diplomats from Kyiv and the deployment of troops and S-400 along the Russian-Ukrainian border indicates a possible invasion.  

However, even if Russia occupies all of Ukraine, it is unlikely that the EU or the USA will be involved in the war. Germany denied helping Ukraine with weapons.

[kryptqnick]

Yes, now is indeed a convenient time for him to talk like he's the boss because many rely on Russia's supplies. But it might also be due to other factors. Putin got very angry with Ukraine for creating the Crimea Platform in August which brought G7, 29/30 NATO countries and all EU countries together to discuss returning Crimea gradually back to Ukraine and recognizing Crimea as a part of Ukraine. So he had autumn to plan a response, mobilizing the military, and by winter created enough of a threat for concerns.
I think that if he directly invades with his army, Russia is likely to face heavy sanctions, and personal sanctions are also possible. If he continues the hybrid war, sponsoring the war in Eastern Ukraine and other attacks (we have false notifications of schools and underground stations being filled with explosives very often now, and intelligence services claim it's done by Russia's intelligence agents), he might just get away with that.

[laredo7mm]

But it might also be due to other factors. Putin got very angry with Ukraine for creating the Crimea Platform in August which brought G7, 29/30 NATO countries and all EU countries together to discuss returning Crimea gradually back to Ukraine and recognizing Crimea as a part of Ukraine.

I really doubt that Russia will agree upon returning Crimea to Ukraine without any military intervention which will never happen. If NATO and the EU really thought that Crimea is an important location and it must not fall to the Russian's hand then why didn't help Ukraine in 2014 with military forces when Russ army invade Crimea? EU knows how badly they needed Russia's natural resources to fuel their country.

[Mometaskers]

Tension has been high ever since they've invaded and annexed Crimea. I watched a video showing that Ukraine has cut off the water from its river that is being diverted into Crimea so that could be another "justification" for invasion.

Gas has always been a big bargaining chip for Russia in negotiations with the EU so I think it really follows that if ever they are going to make an action that the EU would be against, they'd time it with winter when demand for gas is high. The threat of cutting supply when it is most needed could somewhat make up for the logistical difficulties of wagin a winter war if doing so could throw the EU countries into disarray.

[Yaunfitda]

We all know that there is tension on the Russia-Ukraine border. I am not going to talk about why this is happening, I think most of us already know that.

Maybe this is the right time for Putin to play with Ukraine. Because the price of fuel in the world market is skyrocketing. Gas prices in Europe have risen by 600%. It is now wintering in Europe. Heaters/burners are needed to survive in ice-covered Europe. That is why the demand for gas is the highest.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

Putin is a master planner or going to face heavy sanctions from the EU?

If he is not a master planner, then perhaps he should no longer be in power right?

So he knows that he is doing, maybe everything is carefully crafted by himself alone. So the timing itself is perfect. But in any case though, I think EU is hell bent on stopping Putin so for sure they will make their move and have a Plan B here. So right now, Putin and UE are playing a chess match and let's see who is going to win.

[fiulpro]

Not exactly I do think he was just waiting for an opportunity for ages, their economy is collapsing as well therefore I do think that it might not be a good time to actually get involved in a war and that as well to fight against NATO plus uk and us as well. At the same time US already told that they would supply the gas to Germany as well therefore I do think that the tensions were on the top ground since 2014 and they are just struck because of the NATO soilders making a move and they are scared that they would loose their dominance on Ukraine as well. They have already occupied a part and that too they can expand, now they are trying to attack the capital which is worse but right now both of them has a cease fire therefore let's see what's gonna happen.

[paxmao]

We all know that there is tension on the Russia-Ukraine border. I am not going to talk about why this is happening, I think most of us already know that.

Maybe this is the right time for Putin to play with Ukraine. Because the price of fuel in the world market is skyrocketing. Gas prices in Europe have risen by 600%. It is now wintering in Europe. Heaters/burners are needed to survive in ice-covered Europe. That is why the demand for gas is the highest.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

Putin is a master planner or going to face heavy sanctions from the EU?

If he choose winter because of the winter gas demand, he got it all wrong. The talks are unlikely to end before spring and by then the demand will drop vastly. Nope, that is not likely to be the issue. If Putin intended to invade Ukraine and get to Kiev, believe me he would already be there by now. This is about getting the upper hand on a negotiation that otherwise would put him on the short end of the stick.

[Hydrogen]

We all know that there is tension on the Russia-Ukraine border. I am not going to talk about why this is happening, I think most of us already know that.

Maybe this is the right time for Putin to play with Ukraine. Because the price of fuel in the world market is skyrocketing. Gas prices in Europe have risen by 600%. It is now wintering in Europe. Heaters/burners are needed to survive in ice-covered Europe. That is why the demand for gas is the highest.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

Putin is a master planner or going to face heavy sanctions from the EU?

It is a good point you made on russia supplying europe with gas needed to generate heat during winter.

I think the summary of it is Putin did not choose the timing of this latest conflict. The crisis manifested itself on Putin's doorstep and he is merely reacting to it the best he can.

I still say Putin will try to outlast the united states and EU and pray that their economies crash, will russia's remains relatively stable. This could cripple europe and america's ability to react to any move that russia makes.

Putin will know this well, having lived through the crash of the USSR and seeing firsthand effects economic crisis have in the modern world.

Economic instability and crisis in modern times can have a far more devastating impact on nations, than war or military conflict.