Sanctions left and right, Can the Russian economy survive?

[Obito]

They still have allies and China as the biggest one of them, I am pretty sure that Russia will be able to survive for at least a little while and I am sure that China will definitely make the most out of it even though they're an ally. But the Russian allies will have to be careful too as they might get included in the sanctions too.

[Sir Legend]

I think Russia has considered bad things such as economic sanctions, but with support from other countries such as China and Iran, I'm sure Russia will not be too bothered by world sanctions, especially if we look at the fact that Russia is not too dependent on the world and I'm sure they will survive and able to overcome the problem of long-term recession.

[tygeade]

They probably would, but it isn't to say that it would be easy, especially on the lower class. The rich are probably prepared for it, there were some early signs that they could've used to stash their savings safely, plus they have the connections to make it happen. They'd survive alright, but it'd be pretty hard. I hardly doubt Putin wasn't prepared enough to experience this much sanctions when he started this, he probably expected more tbh. He wouldn't start this issue if he wasn't prepared thoroughly for it imo.

Right? I also have the same thought , that he definitely had it in mind that this was going to happen and he had himself prepared for it before going for this. But sometimes it can always backfire, things won’t usually go as you have planned it , so it is also possible that whatever he had planned would end up failing him, it does happen.

So in a situation like that, when he starts to notice that things has become tough and that his subjects are no longer happy with him, he’s definitely going to feel the need to stop, because they are really going to pressure him when the economy becomes screwed and his plans ain’t working no longer.

[killerfrost]

They have prepared for this war, the economic sanctions have been seen by them and they have a specific plan. Furthermore, I believe that Putin is ready for any situation that Russia will face after the war. The sanctions on Russia so far are too many and they are still maintaining their position. I don't want the war to go on for long, and I hope things will be calmed down by agreements.

[justdimin]

I think they already know that sanctions will be imposed to them by other countries especially NATO countries so I guess they already have a solution with it. They might survive for a few more months but if this will last for years then I don't think they will survive.

Well, the war is over already since there is peace talks happening between the 2 countries and Ukraine is applying in the European Union. Now that the war is over, can I ask here if the sanctions are still in effect even though the 2 countries are in peace talks already? I'm curious so.. yeah . Thanks

I doubt this war would go on for years. This is not some middle east nation that the Europe doesn't care about. Killing a million Iraqi people? Nobody cares, kill a few thousand Ukrainians? Suddenly sanctions all around. Hell China just very recently killed way more Uyghur Turks and nobody even cared, just some show stuff and then everything went along, look at Saudis killing Yemeni people every single day, much worse conditions there, Yemeni people have been dying of starvation because of the war and nobody came to their help.

Ukraine is different because it is in Europe technically, and unfortunately European nations are hypocrites who will not help anyone outside of their own. So, this one will be quicker because all of west will come to their help.

[bakasabo]

I remember when first sanctions were announced and some goods became illegal in Russia, if not mistaken, it took week or two before these forbidden goods with fresh release date, appeared in Russia. And its price was not astronomical, not even doubled. I dont understand how to properly use the word survive here, but surely economy will adopt. People will adopt and substitute what is under sanctions.

Months, or years will pass, until people under stand that war is war, but business is business. Sad story is, no on will win from this war and sanctions. Everyone needs money, food and goods.

Ah, so this isn't the first time that Russia has been sanctioned? but if they survive the first one, they can also survive this one although this new one is a little heavier. You're right though, no one wins in war because both countries are going to get damaged in the end and sanctions will only affect the economy of each country.

Banks and other assets are said to be frozen, this makes me think that cryptos are a better alternative to use because cryptos can also act as banks and it can also act as an asset at the same time but what makes crypto ideal in this situation is that it cannot be frozen by someone else not even with other governments or banks so transactions can still be continued.

This isnt the first or the thousandth sanction. Different sanctions against Russia were announced since 2014. Somehow Russia managed to survive them. But they were not as strict as now. What worries me, is the fact that part of current sanctions, firstly wont have any effect, secondly they will do more damage to those who announce them. Russia will separate from whole world and will live in "their own world". But you can just ignore the existence of such a huge piece of land on the globe. With time, sanctions will be removed or become lighter. And in the end some things will return to "before Ukraine war".

I mean that Russia is a huge sales market with a lot of clients. Business can not ignore it all the time. I mean there are so huge good production powers, so many services. Now, due to sanctions, Russian market is closed to them. For example, you produce 100 cars weekly, and third of them were supposed to sold on Russian market. What will you do now with 33 cars now? Sell for a lower price? Let them get rusty? Decrease number of cars product and fire part of your personal? Not only Russian economy will suffer right now. Whole world needs to start to survive.

[thbit]

I think the Russian economy will survive because they have huge resources.

But despite this, I think it will be the following situation. The war will continue for several more weeks, but in the end, Putin will not be able to take over Ukraine. Russia will get out of this situation extremely badly.

After some time, the people of Russia will protest and desecrate the dictator from the throne. After that, the sanctions will be gradually lifted.

The economy of the whole world depends on Russia, just as Russia depends on the world economy. So the sanctions harm not only the Russian economy but also the economy of the whole world.

[carlfebz2]

They still have allies and China as the biggest one of them, I am pretty sure that Russia will be able to survive for at least a little while and I am sure that China will definitely make the most out of it even though they're an ally. But the Russian allies will have to be careful too as they might get included in the sanctions too.

Not an assurance but it would most likely that China would still able to back them out and of course there would be some intent behind those things knowing China would really be that opportunistic as long it could

benefit them out on the future.So what if China wouldnt impose any sactions? No country would able to oppose on what would be their decision so im much sure that Russia president is really that something

confident as he do still continue with his war plans but there might be some peace talks which might completely stop all of these things.

[m2017]

The global economy is highly interconnected. Problems in the economy in one country affect others in one way or another. The troubles associated with the current geopolitical situation will be experienced by many countries in the world. For example, an increase in the price of hydrocarbons is already significantly noticeable.

No matter how many and diverse resources a country has, it is almost impossible to resist the whole world. If this senseless and harmful to citizens confrontation doesn't stop, then the economy in Russia will experience great difficulties. Don't forget also that until recently the world economy was stormy due to the pandemic. These problems overlap and worsen the consequences. The share of Russia in the world economy was already insignificant, but now it will decrease even more.

[savetheFORUM]

Do you think Russia can survive, and how can they survive the harsh economic realities that they are about to experience? Are the sanctions sufficient to push Putin into a decision to stop the invasion?

I think that’s likely, no matter how they try to go around it, they will be affected for sure. Although it seems there are few countries that have chosen to stay neutral; just like China that has made the decision to keep on trading with Russia, I think there are other countries too, but that is not going to be enough to keep their economy in a good position because they have been banned by the heavy sources (Europe, and the US) and their companies and assets sanctioned as well. So, there is no doubt at all, their economy will be affected and Putin would likely be forced to bow out.

[jostorres]

The global economy is highly interconnected. Problems in the economy in one country affect others in one way or another. The troubles associated with the current geopolitical situation will be experienced by many countries in the world. For example, an increase in the price of hydrocarbons is already significantly noticeable.

No matter how many and diverse resources a country has, it is almost impossible to resist the whole world. If this senseless and harmful to citizens confrontation doesn't stop, then the economy in Russia will experience great difficulties. Don't forget also that until recently the world economy was stormy due to the pandemic. These problems overlap and worsen the consequences. The share of Russia in the world economy was already insignificant, but now it will decrease even more.

The difference is that, there are nations who have worse financial situation than Russia without even having sanctions or any troubles. Look at Turkey, they are Nato members, part of them is in Europe, and they play in European cups during spots, and generally a very loved military nation by the west, whenever they have a problem they just use turkish military. They may dislike them as people, but definitely see them as useful evil.

They literally had a 100%+ increase in dollar price a few months ago without anything going on, just purely corruption and horrible management and central bank meddling. Look at Russia on the other hand, they are killing innocent people because of madmen Putin wanting his USSR dream back and destroying homes of people in Ukraine. And yet they are doing better than how Turkey did, even after everything was thrown at them.

[Gyfts]

Early indications are that Russia won't be able to sustain their economy with the sanctions in place, but that doesn't matter to Putin because his economy wasn't in a great place prior to the invasion, and he knew the sanctions would have further sunk his economy. It's not as if he feels the sanctions directly, it's his citizens. Quite frankly, there is no going back once he decided to invade. He can't simply reverse course and come away with nothing, it's not how war works.

China is still willing to do business with Russia, though. So at least Putin has them as a clear avenue of commerce.

[Marykeller]

Innocent citizens are always the ones that suffer it most when war happens. I believed the world bodies are finding means to sanction Russia but locking and seizing people's assets because they are from Russia is the best way to go about it? Why have all these strict sanctions been given to Russian citizens that had nothing to do with the war? With the level of strict sanction given to Russians
make Putin come to terms with the level of sanction given to her citizens by the UK? 
It's quite a challenging period for the people of Ukraine and Russia during this time of war

[Lanatsa]

Early indications are that Russia won't be able to sustain their economy with the sanctions in place, but that doesn't matter to Putin because his economy wasn't in a great place prior to the invasion, and he knew the sanctions would have further sunk his economy. It's not as if he feels the sanctions directly, it's his citizens. Quite frankly, there is no going back once he decided to invade. He can't simply reverse course and come away with nothing, it's not how war works.

China is still willing to do business with Russia, though. So at least Putin has them as a clear avenue of commerce.

Putin surely knows about these things to happen once he do launched that invasion but we dont know his back up economic plans yet but for now we arent seeing something but left and right sanctions.

This would surely took some great or big hit into their economy but we couldnt deny that lots of countries do still needs them on economical aspect.
It could still survive but with this current condition then it is really hard to say but as still having China will still able to breath somehow.

[coolcoinz]

It will survive but in what state.

We can say North Korea is surviving, right? But is it doing good? No. Is it a superpower? No.
If Putin continues this stupid war it's game over for him. I've seen a nice interview with a guy who was in Putin's Inner circle before the war and he said that Putin made a mistake and showed the West how weak Russian army really is. That all those supersonic missiles, superior air power, well trained soldiers are just on paper. That Russia is a paper tiger with most of its equipment being for years stripped for parts. When a tank was breaking down they weren't making a new part for it, they were stripping another tank to patch up the rest. You could see the state those machines were when they entered Ukraine. Some guy on twitter commented that they all look like dogs were living in them with all seats chewed up and wiring ripped out.

Putin played a bluff. He thought that Ukrainians will flee when they see 500+ armored vehicles enter from all sides, but they didn't and now he had to change the tactic to total destruction. He levels cities, kills civilians and people see it all on social media. Russia was expecting sanctions but it was not expecting the world to cut ties with the country. They can't fly anywhere, can't enter most ports with their boats, even got kicked out of FIFA. They have a lot of money saved up but what's all that money if you can't buy anything. No cars will be exported there, no electronics, they won't have international credit cards, no visas. That's going to hurt all those rich people from Moscow.

[iv4n]

-Do you think Russia can survive, and how can they survive the harsh economic realities that they are about to experience? Are the sanctions sufficient to push Putin into a decision to stop the invasion?

I just finished reading one of the international media sources and I saw a topic here by accident.

From what I read, the answer to this topic, I think it fits the answer as I quote below.

But in fact, the economic sanctions imposed on Russia are expected to be met, because Russia is thought to have prepared its economy before an invasion of its neighboring country.

In fact, International Law Observer, said that economic sanctions will certainly not have a big impact on the Russian people. And Russia will be able to survive six to 1 year after being given world sanctions.

Believe it or not, that's exactly what Russia is doing right now.

I have no doubt they prepared well, they would be crazy not to if they had planned this for longer! This report is interesting, although, how much can we really believe that the Russians have prepared for 6-12 months of severe sanctions, and what if something really goes wrong and stocks run out quickly, or in the worst case, what if this lasts longer than a year?!

From my personal experience long sanctions bring a lot of crime, most of the necessary things are imported illegally and sold on the street (read black market)! In this chaos, dubious businessmens are doing their best and increasing their wealth and influence, which later directly affects the rule of law and all other social segments! After almost 30 years after five years of sanctions and a little over 20 years after the NATO bombing, Serbia is full of suspicious multimillionaires who have earned their wealth in an unknown way, and I must say we things are not so great, there's too much gray around government institutions and I don't believe we can see better days in some short future!

The Russian economy will survive, but what will it looks like in a year or two we can just guess it, and I believe all that is just wild guessing, things can change big time in just a day or two, we can just wait and see... in the mean time stack some valuable stuff if you can!

[aprilnot]

-Do you think Russia can survive, and how can they survive the harsh economic realities that they are about to experience? Are the sanctions sufficient to push Putin into a decision to stop the invasion?

for the short term they can still survive, maybe 2-3 years the Russian economy can still survive the sanctions imposed. But if their alliance like China also drops sanctions, Russia won't be fine. so it all depends on their alliance country. Besides, I'm sure they'd predicted all of that from the start. so before they invade, they probably already have a solution for this.

[bakasabo]

-Do you think Russia can survive, and how can they survive the harsh economic realities that they are about to experience? Are the sanctions sufficient to push Putin into a decision to stop the invasion?

for the short term they can still survive, maybe 2-3 years the Russian economy can still survive the sanctions imposed. But if their alliance like China also drops sanctions, Russia won't be fine. so it all depends on their alliance country. Besides, I'm sure they'd predicted all of that from the start. so before they invade, they probably already have a solution for this.

China wont drop sanctions. In fact, I think China is the one who is winning in this war. Russia have sanctions. Europe will have increased prices on fuel, gas, which means prices will be increased on everything. And here comes China with cheap goods and cheap production. All the manufactures that have production on Russian territory will move to China. As well as they will (or will try) to supply Russia with sanctioned goods and services. The world can try to manipulate and drop sanctions China. But these guy have everything and can make everything and live in their own world. The world can not survive without China and will keep calm.

[South Park]

The global economy is highly interconnected. Problems in the economy in one country affect others in one way or another. The troubles associated with the current geopolitical situation will be experienced by many countries in the world. For example, an increase in the price of hydrocarbons is already significantly noticeable.

No matter how many and diverse resources a country has, it is almost impossible to resist the whole world. If this senseless and harmful to citizens confrontation doesn't stop, then the economy in Russia will experience great difficulties. Don't forget also that until recently the world economy was stormy due to the pandemic. These problems overlap and worsen the consequences. The share of Russia in the world economy was already insignificant, but now it will decrease even more.

This is why it is going to be difficult for Russia to keep this war for a long period of time, the Russian citizens are getting nothing out of this invasion and instead they are also suffering greatly because of it, if the conflict extends itself and Russia cannot win there quickly then the damages to their economy could set them back by decades, so even if Russia can withstand the initial effects of the sanctions against them we do no know if it can withstand the long term effects that they have yet to experiment.

[ultrloa]

The global economy is highly interconnected. Problems in the economy in one country affect others in one way or another. The troubles associated with the current geopolitical situation will be experienced by many countries in the world. For example, an increase in the price of hydrocarbons is already significantly noticeable.

No matter how many and diverse resources a country has, it is almost impossible to resist the whole world. If this senseless and harmful to citizens confrontation doesn't stop, then the economy in Russia will experience great difficulties. Don't forget also that until recently the world economy was stormy due to the pandemic. These problems overlap and worsen the consequences. The share of Russia in the world economy was already insignificant, but now it will decrease even more.

This is why it is going to be difficult for Russia to keep this war for a long period of time, the Russian citizens are getting nothing out of this invasion and instead they are also suffering greatly because of it, if the conflict extends itself and Russia cannot win there quickly then the damages to their economy could set them back by decades, so even if Russia can withstand the initial effects of the sanctions against them we do no know if it can withstand the long term effects that they have yet to experiment.

Its either Russian government will stand their ground or they will surrender because they are suffering to much economically. But I think they are prepared for this only the simple citizens are been hurt by those sanctions that's why we see putin still aggressive on his actions towards Ukraine. The only thing can stop this war is the Ukraine government should surrender which is best thing to do since it will cost more life and more assets to destroy if they continue to battle which they know they will lost in the end. We didn't see the worse situation yet but I think if Russia will get to much and been hurt and I think they operate and launch a nuclear war.