The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?)

[el kaka22]

Putin is not going to care as long as oil prices go up. Brent crude touched $139 per barrel yesterday and that will bring around $1 billion per day to the Russian treasury from oil exports alone (anything above $27 per barrel is taxed at close to 100% rate in Russia, and they export around 8 million barrels of crude every day). Natural gas prices are at record highs and that will also add to the revenues. And since Ruble is going down, the government needs to spend less money on salaries and pensions.

Biden made things easy for Putin, by sabotaging the Keystone XL pipeline and banning fracking on federal lands.

So you are saying that if Biden allowed the world to get worse and allow the climate change to hurt the world faster so that humanity would cease to exist quicker (which it will, just slower thanks to those two things) then Russia would have been in a worse situation? I would prefer to see the world stay alive a bit longer before I allow Russia to win or lose or whatever, wars will impact one generation at most, climate change will impact the whole existence of humans on this planet and that is saying something.

Russia will also have a HUGE hard time the moment Saudis end up dropping the price. Trump ended up making them increase the price and not cut prices lower, Biden could make one phone call right now and make the price go to 50 bucks tomorrow, but I guess oil companies do not prefer that.

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[Sithara007]

but still the fall of the ruble will have an impact on the Russian economy. maybe they can get by with the oil this time. but for the long term and the many sanctions, will make this big country not good. so the only option was to withdraw their invasion as soon as possible, that way they could avoid worse trouble.

Russia is a country that is rich in natural resources. Western sanctions will harm the western countries more than Russia, because they need these resources. Already energy bills and gasoline prices in countries such as the United Kingdom have shot up by as much as 200%. And analysts expect the prices to go up even further. Heavy industries are also impacted, due to the rising cost of natural gas. On the other hand, countries such as India and China are going to gain, because they will be able to source these resources at a discount from Russia.

[Poker Player]

So you are saying that if Biden allowed the world to get worse and allow the climate change to hurt the world faster so that humanity would cease to exist quicker (which it will, just slower thanks to those two things) then Russia would have been in a worse situation?

I don't know where you get that from. What Biden did is to continue polluting the same but costing Americans more. He stopped producing to buy abroad what is not produced in the USA.

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

We are approaching a global economic crisis where the vast majority of the population will be impoverished.

In the West, our currencies are not doing so well either, although they do not devalue as fast as the ruble. And the dollar, although it sucks, is serving as a safe haven, so it has done well. But rising energy prices and their impact on a lot of products will mean a loss of purchasing power.

[DrBeer]

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

[tbterryboy]

What Biden did is to continue polluting the same but costing Americans more. He stopped producing to buy abroad what is not produced in the USA.

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

We are approaching a global economic crisis where the vast majority of the population will be impoverished.

In the West, our currencies are not doing so well either, although they do not devalue as fast as the ruble. And the dollar, although it sucks, is serving as a safe haven, so it has done well. But rising energy prices and their impact on a lot of products will mean a loss of purchasing power.

Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.

[DrBeer]

What Biden did is to continue polluting the same but costing Americans more. He stopped producing to buy abroad what is not produced in the USA.

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

We are approaching a global economic crisis where the vast majority of the population will be impoverished.

In the West, our currencies are not doing so well either, although they do not devalue as fast as the ruble. And the dollar, although it sucks, is serving as a safe haven, so it has done well. But rising energy prices and their impact on a lot of products will mean a loss of purchasing power.

Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.

The reasons for this decision are extremely simple. Russia, out of habit, shot itself in the leg - when this winter, it took up natural energy terrorism. As you remember, after there were delays in the launch of Nord Stream 2, Russia did not come up with anything better than to limit the supply of energy resources to the EU! Throughout the Russian media, to applause and laughter, 24x7 speeches were flowing "well, Europe - will you not fulfill our requirements? WE will freeze you all! Ha-ha-ha! And you will not do anything to us!". And as if Putin's right hand in Germany, Merkel, did not try to play into the hands of Russia, the EU did understand that this is real energy terrorism, in reality they will constantly manipulate and force us, considering themselves "the king of the situation." Therefore, the EU and Germany, including, have made a very difficult decision for themselves - to actually break the connection with Russian energy resources, and become independent from any subsequent Russian terrorist steps.

[stompix]

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

If we look at official exchange rates the downfall has mostly stopped, mainly because you can't buy dollars and euros anymore.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/08/ruble-dollar-exchange-barred/
due to reasons. The same reasons some exchanges claimed to affect them to the point of shutting down and disappearing when the reason was the same as here, they have no USD left so they are forcing poeple to keep their money in rubles.

“Apparently, the outflow of foreign currency deposits from Russian banks has exceeded the Bank of Russia’s forecasts and put under question the banks’ ability to meet their obligations,” he said in his Substack newsletter after the news broke

Oh, the CB of Russia being incompetent again, what a surprise.

And with nobody being able to sell rubles for USD officially then it means the exchange rate can go in only one direction theoretically, but this is when the black market starts forming and soon nobody will give a damn about the official rates.

[FanEagle]

Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.

Going full on renewable energy is not just feasible for energy independence, or just climate change, but it is also getting economically profitable as well. Most companies who are doing it gets help from the government as well. You can spend a million dollars to get a huge wind turbine, but you will be also getting some help from the government to get it.

I know a guy who works at a company with 26 of them, it is such a huge company and yet all they have is 26 items, that's it, but when that 26 items are 26 huge wind turbines, they became like top 2000 company in our country. He said that even 1 hour shortage on one of them makes such a huge difference to their business, but at the same time they pay 20% less on taxes on average and many other benefits.

[Abiky]

Putin is not going to care as long as oil prices go up. Brent crude touched $139 per barrel yesterday and that will bring around $1 billion per day to the Russian treasury from oil exports alone (anything above $27 per barrel is taxed at close to 100% rate in Russia, and they export around 8 million barrels of crude every day). Natural gas prices are at record highs and that will also add to the revenues. And since Ruble is going down, the government needs to spend less money on salaries and pensions.

Biden made things easy for Putin, by sabotaging the Keystone XL pipeline and banning fracking on federal lands.

Putin won't care because it has China backing him every step of the way. I'm pretty sure China will finance most of Russia's military and economic operations after fierce sanctions imposed by the West. To be able to stop Putin for good, Western countries must completely isolate Russia and its allies from world trade. Not only that, but all countries must unilaterally stop the import of Russian gas and oil. Once that is done, Putin will have no choice but to end the war with Ukraine. But the West's "softness" will only make matters worse, leading to Russia's uprising in the long term.

When Russia becomes self-sustainable, its own currency (the Ruble) will rise back from the ground up. The Ruble may be going to "hell" right now, but the effects might not last for long if Western countries don't tighten their stance against Russia. The ones that will be mostly affected are everyday Russian people as a worthless Ruble will lead many towards extreme poverty. Things are just getting started, so I can't imagine how everything will look for Russia and the whole world by the end of 2022. Just my opinion

[Flexystar]

Oh my God, that’s very bad condition for Russia and can’t believe that leader can actually take such hard steps just to acquire one land. This will cost him more money to rebuild the economy of his country than what he paid for land acquisition in Ukraine. Russia is on its path to destruction inside out. I just can’t imagine the rate of inflation that might be rising in the Russia at this stage. If they continue the war, the situation will even worsen and this will cause retaliation of other countries from Russian land in terms of businesses and employment. Most of them have already banned the services and product so no wonder Russia is on the verge of broken continent.

[DrBeer]

Congratulations to all, especially Russia
"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business

[Poker Player]

Congratulations to all, especially Russia
"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business

Great move by Biden, what a strategist. Changing the energy he buys from Putin to beg to buy it from Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia, when he could produce it himself. I guess when they burn the gas and oil bought by the US to those countries, the smoke will be ecological smoke, or so he pretends to make us believe.

[wxa7115]

Putin is not going to care as long as oil prices go up. Brent crude touched $139 per barrel yesterday and that will bring around $1 billion per day to the Russian treasury from oil exports alone (anything above $27 per barrel is taxed at close to 100% rate in Russia, and they export around 8 million barrels of crude every day). Natural gas prices are at record highs and that will also add to the revenues. And since Ruble is going down, the government needs to spend less money on salaries and pensions.

Biden made things easy for Putin, by sabotaging the Keystone XL pipeline and banning fracking on federal lands.

Putin won't care because it has China backing him every step of the way. I'm pretty sure China will finance most of Russia's military and economic operations after fierce sanctions imposed by the West. To be able to stop Putin for good, Western countries must completely isolate Russia and its allies from world trade. Not only that, but all countries must unilaterally stop the import of Russian gas and oil. Once that is done, Putin will have no choice but to end the war with Ukraine. But the West's "softness" will only make matters worse, leading to Russia's uprising in the long term.

When Russia becomes self-sustainable, its own currency (the Ruble) will rise back from the ground up. The Ruble may be going to "hell" right now, but the effects might not last for long if Western countries don't tighten their stance against Russia. The ones that will be mostly affected are everyday Russian people as a worthless Ruble will lead many towards extreme poverty. Things are just getting started, so I can't imagine how everything will look for Russia and the whole world by the end of 2022. Just my opinion

But with China backing them it is impossible to completely corner them, after all sanctioning Russia is one thing but the US cannot do the same with China, if they send some sanctions to China to try to weaken Russia the Chinese can respond in kind and really weaken the US.

So even if the Russian economy as a whole is going to hell, and there is a huge boycott against anything Russian in the west, that is not going to stop Putin which seems hell bent on conquering Ukraine at all costs.

[Fortify]

It seems that Putin's gamble is not working out as he had hoped. He is moving militarily rather slower than he anticipated and now apart he has taken two economic measures:

"President Vladimir Putin banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts, potentially putting much of the country’s $478 billion in external debt at risk of default."

Source: Putin’s Ban on Foreign Debt Service Raises $478 Billion Question.

To stop the bleeding of the ruble, which is plummeting even in the face of a weak USD due to over-printing, he has also ordered that: "Russian businesses that trade abroad must sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles...

A picture is worth a thousand words:

This is starting to cause panic among its population, which has rushed en masse to withdraw cash from ATMs:

Russians rush to withdraw cash at ATMs as rouble plunges; central bank hikes rates to 20%

The most important thing in the conflict is the human drama with dead, wounded and displaced people, but I wanted to open thread to comment in this economy section what could be the medium term future of the Russian currency and economy.

I wonder if some of these measures affect Best_Change, which I understand is a business located in Russia, but I don't know if they will want to comment anything.

While I'm definitely anti-Putin, I think we need to be careful about cheering too much at the downfall of Russia because at present he looks like a complete fool. Now, he is standing in front of the world with what is meant to be one of the scariest and top military might, yet it is getting destroyed all over the place - they haven't even achieved air superiority so far. Couple that with devastating sanctions that we've not even begun to see the effects of so far, and it's getting worse all the time for this man. If he's not already there, it's looking like he has nothing left to lose so might as well get even more destructive in this senseless war. There is no chance he's going to touch other NATO countries, but he can still unleash even more hell in Ukraine so who knows what will happen next.

[DrBeer]

......

Putin won't care because it has China backing him every step of the way. I'm pretty sure China will finance most of Russia's military and economic operations after fierce sanctions imposed by the West. To be able to stop Putin for good, Western countries must completely isolate Russia and its allies from world trade. Not only that, but all countries must unilaterally stop the import of Russian gas and oil. Once that is done, Putin will have no choice but to end the war with Ukraine. But the West's "softness" will only make matters worse, leading to Russia's uprising in the long term.

When Russia becomes self-sustainable, its own currency (the Ruble) will rise back from the ground up. The Ruble may be going to "hell" right now, but the effects might not last for long if Western countries don't tighten their stance against Russia. The ones that will be mostly affected are everyday Russian people as a worthless Ruble will lead many towards extreme poverty. Things are just getting started, so I can't imagine how everything will look for Russia and the whole world by the end of 2022. Just my opinion

But with China backing them it is impossible to completely corner them, after all sanctioning Russia is one thing but the US cannot do the same with China, if they send some sanctions to China to try to weaken Russia the Chinese can respond in kind and really weaken the US.

So even if the Russian economy as a whole is going to hell, and there is a huge boycott against anything Russian in the west, that is not going to stop Putin which seems hell bent on conquering Ukraine at all costs.
[/quote]

And why did you decide that China is a partner of Russia and will take the side of Russia?
Compare the US-West/China trade balance and Russia/China? Nothing worries you? And now look at the subject area of ​​trade of the Russian Federation / China? The Russian Federation is a raw material appendage of China, which, moreover, now owns vast territories that historically belong to China, and in the east of Russia there has already been a long-standing expansion of the Chinese. There are already cities and towns in Russia where Chinese is predominantly spoken. The question is - what is more profitable for China - to stop economic relations with the West or continue to act as the "ruler of Russia" and buy from her for a penny the resources necessary for the economy?

[kryptqnick]

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

Yes, I hope we'll see it happening soon. Ruble lost half of its value, if not more, and while it's good news, there's much more going on in terms of both sanctions and major businesses leaving Russia. The collapse of the Russian economy is imminent. As for Russia itself, I guess it depends a lot on the political will of people within various regions, as now is a good time to say goodbye to Russia and declare their independence.
And, referring to more recent discussions in the thread, thankfully, Putin is not backed by China. China's not stupid enough to support Russia right now because China's economy is also very dependent on collaboration with Western countries, and China has long been more of a fan of economic interdependencies, not military interventions that destabilize the region and the economy.

[darewaller]

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

[TheCoinGrabber]

Looks like the ruble is in, um rubble.... I see nothing but trouble for Russians in the short term.

Unfortunately it's the civilians that will suffer from the devaluing of the ruble. Putin and his cronies well get by just fine and China would probably prop them up if things go from bad to worse, just like Beijing prop the Ils.

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

Well even before this Maduro kinda fell away from the public consciousness. Don't Venezuela only sell crude oil? Last I read they're not even capable of refining the oil they pump. And they sell it pretty much mostly to China.

[redsun114]

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

When you are desperate enough, even a dictator could be the solution to your problems. Maduro is still a fake president that lost the elections and kept the power with the soldiers and he should have been outed years ago.

However, if you look at what is going on with Russia right now, if Biden didn't do this deal, then the population he is responsible for serving could have ended up suffering a lot more. They are not getting it right now and right away, but even the deal itself dropped the prices a bit. This is why I believe that we should not be really doing something that is judgemental to Biden right now, he did something wrong on foreign relations point of view, but did it to help his citizens.

[Wind_FURY]

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision.