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Author Topic: The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?)  (Read 1004 times)
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March 15, 2022, 05:16:44 PM
 #61

Congratulations to all, especially Russia Smiley
"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business Smiley

I'd consider buying oil from Venezuela a dumb move since the country is a long-time ally of Russia. Financing Venezuela would be no different than financing Russia itself. The same can be said about doing business with China. As long as Western countries and the EU keep dealing with Russia's allies, their efforts to "punish" Putin will be futile. The Ruble may be going to hell, but that may not last for long as Russia seeks alternative ways to save its economy. With China by its side, anything's possible. These are uncertain times we're living in, so we should be prepared for the worst. Just my thoughts Grin

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March 16, 2022, 05:31:31 PM
 #62

That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision. Cool
It was always obvious that holding crypto was a better way to hedge yourself against the fiat world. I mean we are in a world where fiat will be devalued for any reason at all and it is a constant thing. How many nations had negative inflation at any given minute, how many in the world have their wealth saved against inflation?

I am not saying that there are none, I am just saying that it is not common and that is why I believe that crypto is a lot better for everyday regular people like us. This means that we just need to keep it in crypto, and pick ones that are not terrible and will go down, and we will be right for the rest of our lives.
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March 17, 2022, 09:00:20 AM
 #63

What Biden did is to continue polluting the same but costing Americans more. He stopped producing to buy abroad what is not produced in the USA.

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

We are approaching a global economic crisis where the vast majority of the population will be impoverished.

In the West, our currencies are not doing so well either, although they do not devalue as fast as the ruble. And the dollar, although it sucks, is serving as a safe haven, so it has done well. But rising energy prices and their impact on a lot of products will mean a loss of purchasing power.
Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.
After Europe saw an aggressive Russia, most states will switch to renewable energy sources much faster. They have already decided to get rid of dependence on Russian oil and gas very quickly.
Yes, some states will significantly lose from the imposed sanctions against Russia. However, they will simply have a destructive effect on Russia. There is simply no other way. A dollar there already costs 300 rubles, and it seems that this is not the limit, but only the beginning.
In general, in my opinion, with such an organization as the UN, it is necessary to create rapid reaction forces in order to quickly repel the aggressor in such cases by military means, and not by economic ones. It would be much more efficient.

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March 17, 2022, 10:01:46 PM
 #64

 Of course, the reality is very different from his plans. Even if in the future we manage to stabilize the situation, it will be very different from the previous indicators. Its no longer possible to return to the previous values. If a default happens, the country will go back to the 1990s, and this is a complete failure! I think it will have a big impact on the rest of the world.
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March 17, 2022, 10:07:01 PM
 #65

Of course, the reality is very different from his plans. Even if in the future we manage to stabilize the situation, it will be very different from the previous indicators. Its no longer possible to return to the previous values. If a default happens, the country will go back to the 1990s, and this is a complete failure! I think it will have a big impact on the rest of the world.

We can't be so sure that their future is hopeless. They will recover but it would take years, maybe.
But if you are an investor, who believes that ruble can recover in the future, you can buy now while it is cheap.
But you need to wait and that waiting period is not a guarantee also. It is your choice if you want to take the risk.
The recovery period maybe long, but I think, they can. It is not the end of the world for them.
Remember, there are countries that still want to trade with them, just like China.
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March 18, 2022, 05:41:32 PM
 #66

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.
When you are desperate enough, even a dictator could be the solution to your problems. Maduro is still a fake president that lost the elections and kept the power with the soldiers and he should have been outed years ago.

However, if you look at what is going on with Russia right now, if Biden didn't do this deal, then the population he is responsible for serving could have ended up suffering a lot more. They are not getting it right now and right away, but even the deal itself dropped the prices a bit. This is why I believe that we should not be really doing something that is judgemental to Biden right now, he did something wrong on foreign relations point of view, but did it to help his citizens.
Unfortunately the high prices of oil means that Maduro will remain in power for a longer period of time, after all Venezuela could sustain their system with high prices of oil but when they went down that is when things fell apart relatively quickly.

But now that high prices of oil are back Maduro will have a chance to try to buy the loyalty of the military and some key sectors of the economy, keeping himself in power in the process and delaying or maybe even preventing something that seemed inevitable, which was his eventual fall.

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March 18, 2022, 08:15:15 PM
 #67

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...




That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision. Cool

Bitcoin has never faced a war situation between the two superpowers before. This means that we cant say with conviction that it will act as a hedge in case this situation developed into a world war. Since bitcoin is currency pegged with the stocks, so if the stocks dump in the world war, then bitcoin will dump too. There is no value for fiat currencies, especially for the country in which the sanctions are proposed and applied. People of russia have no choice but to sell ruble and buy something better like bitcoin.

.
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March 18, 2022, 08:32:44 PM
 #68

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...




That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision. Cool

Bitcoin has never faced a war situation between the two superpowers before. This means that we cant say with conviction that it will act as a hedge in case this situation developed into a world war. Since bitcoin is currency pegged with the stocks, so if the stocks dump in the world war, then bitcoin will dump too. There is no value for fiat currencies, especially for the country in which the sanctions are proposed and applied. People of russia have no choice but to sell ruble and buy something better like bitcoin.

Of course bitcoin has never seen a war before, unlike gold who has proven itself to be a good hedge. However, bitcoin as digital gold could be the next great asset that could be used right now. Specially if you are in either of the two countries, when your money is worthless. So the best thing to do is this situation is to have your money hedge it to bitcoin, very simply if you wanted to protect your wealth during and after the war.

.
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March 19, 2022, 01:38:00 AM
 #69

Congratulations to all, especially Russia Smiley
"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business Smiley

I'd consider buying oil from Venezuela a dumb move since the country is a long-time ally of Russia. Financing Venezuela would be no different than financing Russia itself. The same can be said about doing business with China. As long as Western countries and the EU keep dealing with Russia's allies, their efforts to "punish" Putin will be futile. The Ruble may be going to hell, but that may not last for long as Russia seeks alternative ways to save its economy. With China by its side, anything's possible. These are uncertain times we're living in, so we should be prepared for the worst. Just my thoughts Grin
Well, as you know, politics is something irreverent to everything that represents good customs, on the one hand there is talk about Venezuela's oil, and yes, they are allies of Russia, but on the other hand the USA negotiates with Venezuela and on the In a short time the Colombian government went to the same president to speak to Biden in the White House to tell him that Colombian oil is better than Venezuelan oil, then the roles are reversed and now the business is in Colombia, there is talk that there are Russian bases in Venezuela , and that there are US bases in Colombia, then this game of give and take is simply to have a status quo and guarantee US consumerism, the US is not interested in Ukraine, it will no longer enter NATO, we must be realistic, Russia it will not leave it anymore, now the USA's concern is to be well with them, and well with Europe, then the USA wants to be well with God and the Devil, so these are things that they do not see in Europe, or they see it and turn a blind eye, That's why I say, the conflict is political or geo-political where the only ones who benefit are the rulers and the people suffer, in this war the people never win.

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March 19, 2022, 03:02:37 AM
 #70

Well, as you know, politics is something irreverent to everything that represents good customs, on the one hand there is talk about Venezuela's oil, and yes, they are allies of Russia, but on the other hand the USA negotiates with Venezuela and on the In a short time the Colombian government went to the same president to speak to Biden in the White House to tell him that Colombian oil is better than Venezuelan oil, then the roles are reversed and now the business is in Colombia, there is talk that there are Russian bases in Venezuela , and that there are US bases in Colombia, then this game of give and take is simply to have a status quo and guarantee US consumerism, the US is not interested in Ukraine, it will no longer enter NATO, we must be realistic, Russia it will not leave it anymore, now the USA's concern is to be well with them, and well with Europe, then the USA wants to be well with God and the Devil, so these are things that they do not see in Europe, or they see it and turn a blind eye, That's why I say, the conflict is political or geo-political where the only ones who benefit are the rulers and the people suffer, in this war the people never win.

Now the US is pampering not only to Venezuela, but to Iran as well. Still, the increased output from these two, on top of the increase from the other OPEC nations won't be able to fill the shortfall from Russia. If the Americans and their allies go ahead with their stupid move of prohibiting oil and gas exports from Russia, then the global economy will collapse in a matter of few months. Crude has already crossed three digits and is on course for $150 per barrel in the short term and $200+ in the long term. Natural gas prices are now at oil equivalent rates of $300-$400 per barrel in Europe.

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March 20, 2022, 06:45:15 PM
 #71

We don’t need to ask, one thing for sure is that it is going to affect every company In one way or the other.
But, I don’t know why a lot of people there has decided to withdraw their money from the ATM like you have said. If they withdraw their money they are still holding the same Fiat, unless they have plans to exchange it for Bitcoin.

If they should exchange it for Bitcoin they would be more safe as Bitcoin would continue to have more value and also save them from their Fiat money that has been depreciating as of recent. Anyone living in Russia needs to look for a solution and Bitcoin is the solution they all really need.

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March 22, 2022, 08:23:38 AM
 #72

Of course bitcoin has never seen a war before, unlike gold who has proven itself to be a good hedge. However, bitcoin as digital gold could be the next great asset that could be used right now. Specially if you are in either of the two countries, when your money is worthless. So the best thing to do is this situation is to have your money hedge it to bitcoin, very simply if you wanted to protect your wealth during and after the war.
Although bitcoin is still new for now, it is definitely a really good option for anyone that wants to use it as a hedge for value. First it has a limited supply, and by having a limited means that it is going to be increasing in value as more and more people continues to invest in the bitcoin market.

A lot of people are still getting to know about Bitcoin, we should be looking forward to more investors in the future. And there are also institutions that are now considering bitcoin an asset to invest in. There are already those of them that have started investing and they will keep investing, while more continues to join and invest.

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March 23, 2022, 04:36:38 AM
 #73

When a nation tries to take over a whole another nation, and if that victim nation is also white, then people will burn worlds to put up a front, especially if the attacker is already an enemy in mind. It is clear to me that we are talking about Russia and how the world already hates them for so many years, it is not a new thing. We had "red scare" in the USA like 60 years ago or so as well and it wasn't a new thing.

So, we should not be shocked that the world fell right back into that once again. As long as Russia is Russia, and the way they live is the same, and their culture is the same, the west will find a way to hate them, and sometimes they are right.

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March 23, 2022, 11:57:50 AM
 #74

Of course bitcoin has never seen a war before, unlike gold who has proven itself to be a good hedge. However, bitcoin as digital gold could be the next great asset that could be used right now. Specially if you are in either of the two countries, when your money is worthless. So the best thing to do is this situation is to have your money hedge it to bitcoin, very simply if you wanted to protect your wealth during and after the war.
Although bitcoin is still new for now, it is definitely a really good option for anyone that wants to use it as a hedge for value. First it has a limited supply, and by having a limited means that it is going to be increasing in value as more and more people continues to invest in the bitcoin market.

A lot of people are still getting to know about Bitcoin, we should be looking forward to more investors in the future. And there are also institutions that are now considering bitcoin an asset to invest in. There are already those of them that have started investing and they will keep investing, while more continues to join and invest.
maybe bitcoin adoption occurs this way, namely a war that makes it difficult for people to access their money, especially when they are abroad, so bitcoin is here as a solution. this answers previous doubts where bitcoin is only a means of investment and trading because the main function has not been achieved. this way more people will see the future of bitcoin, and now investing is a profitable way to go into the future later

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March 23, 2022, 01:52:16 PM
 #75

After Europe saw an aggressive Russia, most states will switch to renewable energy sources much faster. They have already decided to get rid of dependence on Russian oil and gas very quickly.
Yes, some states will significantly lose from the imposed sanctions against Russia. However, they will simply have a destructive effect on Russia. There is simply no other way. A dollar there already costs 300 rubles, and it seems that this is not the limit, but only the beginning.
In general, in my opinion, with such an organization as the UN, it is necessary to create rapid reaction forces in order to quickly repel the aggressor in such cases by military means, and not by economic ones. It would be much more efficient.

Exactly. In order to repel Russia, military action must be enforced. Economic sanctions are only a short-term remedy to slow down the invasion (not stop it). Russia can simply rely on China or even crypto to make its economy rise from the ground up. I believe Western countries and the EU haven't taken military action against Russia simply because they're afraid of doing so. Putin already has nukes at his disposal, so a direct war with Russia will only lead us to a full-scale nuclear disaster.

It's most likely Russia will take over Ukraine, leading towards the further deterioration of the world order. A victory over Ukraine will simply mean that democracy has lost. How will Russia's currency perform in the future, is beyond me. Putin is a wise person, so it's probable he has a plan to get Russia back on its feet. Just my opinion Smiley

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March 23, 2022, 04:05:53 PM
 #76

Although bitcoin is still new for now, it is definitely a really good option for anyone that wants to use it as a hedge for value. First it has a limited supply, and by having a limited means that it is going to be increasing in value as more and more people continues to invest in the bitcoin market.

A lot of people are still getting to know about Bitcoin, we should be looking forward to more investors in the future. And there are also institutions that are now considering bitcoin an asset to invest in. There are already those of them that have started investing and they will keep investing, while more continues to join and invest.
It is definitely a great feeling that you could have your value always at the same place. Back in the day people used houses for the same calculation. Like if you had 100 bucks in 90's, that would be very low but you could get a small land for that, today you can't even buy a basket full of groceries with that, whereas the land now costs 15k. So today bitcoin is used the same way, 5 years ago dollar was a lot more valuable and now worths a lot less but bitcoin worths a lot more so you are saving yourself.

I believe that we should not be shocked if somehow bitcoin goes triple or even higher soon if the governments fail to keep this crisis at bay, fiat world could get worse and that would only help crypto.

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March 23, 2022, 04:33:08 PM
 #77

When European countries have to pay for gas supplies not in dollars or euros, but in rubles, the ruble will undoubtedly strengthen. Nobody will like this solution, but there is no choice. If European countries buy gas from Russia, they will boost the Russian economy and strengthen the ruble. Of course, this will require a change in long-term contracts, but in our time everything can be.
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March 24, 2022, 06:24:05 PM
 #78

After Europe saw an aggressive Russia, most states will switch to renewable energy sources much faster. They have already decided to get rid of dependence on Russian oil and gas very quickly.
Yes, some states will significantly lose from the imposed sanctions against Russia. However, they will simply have a destructive effect on Russia. There is simply no other way. A dollar there already costs 300 rubles, and it seems that this is not the limit, but only the beginning.
In general, in my opinion, with such an organization as the UN, it is necessary to create rapid reaction forces in order to quickly repel the aggressor in such cases by military means, and not by economic ones. It would be much more efficient.

Exactly. In order to repel Russia, military action must be enforced. Economic sanctions are only a short-term remedy to slow down the invasion (not stop it). Russia can simply rely on China or even crypto to make its economy rise from the ground up. I believe Western countries and the EU haven't taken military action against Russia simply because they're afraid of doing so. Putin already has nukes at his disposal, so a direct war with Russia will only lead us to a full-scale nuclear disaster.

It's most likely Russia will take over Ukraine, leading towards the further deterioration of the world order. A victory over Ukraine will simply mean that democracy has lost. How will Russia's currency perform in the future, is beyond me. Putin is a wise person, so it's probable he has a plan to get Russia back on its feet. Just my opinion Smiley
Since a direct confrontation will be even more of a disaster than what we are seeing now  then the only card the US has over the table is to arm Ukraine, something they are already doing, and to try to do so as well with countries that are outside of NATO in order to create a deterrent against another Russian Invasion.

Will this work? It is impossible to know as we do not know what kind of plans Putin has for the region, and we have yet to see the long term effects the sanctions will have on the Russian economy.

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March 24, 2022, 09:34:29 PM
 #79

When European countries have to pay for gas supplies not in dollars or euros, but in rubles, the ruble will undoubtedly strengthen. Nobody will like this solution, but there is no choice. If European countries buy gas from Russia, they will boost the Russian economy and strengthen the ruble. Of course, this will require a change in long-term contracts, but in our time everything can be.

EU countries will likely not buy gas from Russia after the war in Ukraine. Today the US president started discussing with other countries like Canada and EU countries on how to stop purchase of Russian gas and strengthen the sanctions. Rubie will not be used in EU for trade instead euro or dollar.

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March 25, 2022, 05:50:46 AM
 #80

When European countries have to pay for gas supplies not in dollars or euros, but in rubles, the ruble will undoubtedly strengthen. Nobody will like this solution, but there is no choice. If European countries buy gas from Russia, they will boost the Russian economy and strengthen the ruble. Of course, this will require a change in long-term contracts, but in our time everything can be.

EU countries will likely not buy gas from Russia after the war in Ukraine. Today the US president started discussing with other countries like Canada and EU countries on how to stop purchase of Russian gas and strengthen the sanctions. Rubie will not be used in EU for trade instead euro or dollar.

Yes, but the question is how long it will take to implement that. They're not going to stop buying Russian gas today, is an issue that EU leaders were discussing yesterday:

"Germany, which gets 55% of its gas imports from Russia, however, has warned that an immediate ban would cause unemployment and stop drivers filling their cars. To stop using Russian energy “from one day to the next would mean plunging our country and all of Europe into recession”, the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said on Wednesday.

He was supported by Belgium’s prime minister, Alexander De Croo, who said an oil embargo “would have a devastating effect on the European economy and I don’t think it’s necessary
”.

So in the short term they're going to have to buy rubles, that's inevitable, and with that, the ruble will appreciate.

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