The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?)

[DanWalker]

I have read that many companies from Europe are accusing Russia of breach of contract because the ruble is not on the list of currencies in which they pay. But under European pressure many unreasonable sanctions were imposed on Russia, there is nothing wrong with Russia's counterattack. If European companies do not accept payments in rubles, the oil crisis will be even more dire.

For deliveries as per the existing contracts, I don't think that Russia can demand payment in RUR. Maybe for spot deliveries they can demand that. All this rhetoric is just to warn Europeans that if they go too far with the sanctions, then their gas and oil supply will be disrupted. In the end, who is actually suffering? Oil prices are close to historic highs and energy prices in Western Europe has soared to such levels to make lives of ordinary people miserable. And I don't think that Russia is much impacted. The last time I checked, Sokol crude has once again breached the $100 per barrel level.

G7 countries are protesting this decision but Russia still insists that it only accepts payments in rubles. I think the Russians are not only warning but they are responding strongly to Europe with what they do to the Russian economy right now. In this game, I don't think Russia will lose because China is increasingly looking for gas deals with Russia. They are willing to accept Russian oil and gas very willingly.

[1714220962]

1714220962

[Poker Player]

Well, it seems that state interventionism has worked for Putin, at least in the short term, and that the ruble is recovering:

"The ruble is rebounding from the precarious losses seen since Russia’s intrusion of Ukraine, signaling that capital controls might be easing strain on the currency as officials try to counter the effect of crippling worldwide sanctions...

The gains have left the ruble just around 10% lower against the greenback than it was before the invasion.

The central bank imposed a series of measures to contain the damage from Russia’s economic isolation, including capital controls to keep cash from leaving the country. Russia has also moved toward requiring that natural-gas sales be conducted in rubles, though the major industrialized countries have rejected the demand.

“Capital controls are designed to keep U.S. dollars in the country and also to restrict rubles from being converted into dollars,” he said. “If the ruble basically can’t be sold, that’s a policy that should support the ruble and be a way to stabilize the currency against intense selling pressure.”"

Source: Ruble recovers to strongest level in a month, cutting huge post-war losses.

It will be interesting to follow this situation, as interventionism usually works in the short term, but not in the long term. Several factors will have to be taken into account: if a peace agreement is finally reached, for example, or if Russia stops supplying gas to European countries because they don't want to pay in rubles.

[lovesmayfamilis]

It will be interesting to follow this situation, as interventionism usually works in the short term, but not in the long term. Several factors will have to be taken into account: if a peace agreement is finally reached, for example, or if Russia stops supplying gas to European countries because they don't want to pay in rubles.

As a person who regularly watches the news in Russian, I can say that Russia is serious about selling gas exclusively in rubles. Free or in any other currency of gas Europe can not be seen. There is China, which will gladly accept both oil and gas. But all these events were not specially prepared by Russia, this is just a response to a huge number of sanctions. Those countries that diligently sat and worked out how to take revenge on Russia could be a little wiser, realizing that the boomerang would work against them too.
Politics should always be reasonable, and when it is done with hatred, it always peels off in a negative direction.

[stompix]

Well, it seems that state interventionism has worked for Putin, at least in the short term, and that the ruble is recovering:
~
The gains have left the ruble just around 10% lower against the greenback than it was before the invasion.
It will be interesting to follow this situation, as interventionism usually works in the short term, but not in the long term. Several factors will have to be taken into account: if a peace agreement is finally reached, for example, or if Russia stops supplying gas to European countries because they don't want to pay in rubles.

That exchange rate can last 100 years, just as Venezuelahad one official in place for a year after the differences were closer to 100x if people are not allowed to buy foreign currencies nor are businesses and they are on the other hand forced to convert everything back into rubles you can pretty much say this exchange rate is 1:10, not 1:90, the real value is not there.

As for the whole paying in ruble thing, it's just stupid.
Scenario A:
European company pays in Euros, Gazprom exchanges euros for rubles.
Scenario B:
European company buys rubles for euros, Gazprom gets rubles.

Spot the difference as it would be any!

As a person who regularly watches the news in Russian, I can say that Russia is serious about selling gas exclusively in rubles. Free or in any other currency of gas Europe can not be seen. There is China, which will gladly accept both oil and gas.

Except:
Power of Siberia 2 is in planning and the plan has just been approved in late 2021, meaning construction will finish somewhere in 2025, there is no oil pipeline that would be able to supply oil to China in those quantities either, Ural oil is trading at a discount of 20$ to Brent, why would that be happening if there are buyers?
If Russia pushes Saudi Arabia out of China where would SA sell oil?

There is dreaming, and there is reality:
China's Sinopec pauses Russia projects, Beijing wary of sanctions -sources

Those countries that diligently sat and worked out how to take revenge on Russia could be a little wiser, realizing that the boomerang would work against them too.
Politics should always be reasonable, and when it is done with hatred, it always peels off in a negative direction.

I don't think that razing a country to the ground in a hunt for nazies can be called reasonable.
As for the boomerang effect, I've heard that for 10 years stating in breadlines about the death of capitalism, the damn boomerang never came back, all it did was hack the bear into pieces, seems that what is left of it still tries to blackmail the rest of the world, probably time to call some referendums in Siberia.

This one seems nice, it also respects the language and ethnic composition

[tygeade]

Ruble continues to recover which isn't really surprising since Putin most probably predicted this and planned various measures to counter these issues. This power hungry maniac didn't decide to invade Ukraine on a whim.

He probably planned to execute it once the pandemic effect decreased. Ruble definitely suffered a lot because of his actions, but I don't think it will lead to a Russian economic collapse.

I believe that he didn't "predicted" something to get better, he just knew that he had what the world wanted and that's what he relied on. The whole world knows it, and this is a long term solution. Ruble will recover when the sanctions are off, maybe even be better than what it used to be because it would show the world how powerful and needed they are.

However, it is definitely not a good long term deal. This war showed the world that it would be wiser to find alternatives to Russia's energy production, and every nation is doing their best, it will take years, maybe a decade before anyone can be independent in that sense, but the doom for the long term already started for Russia.

[Sithara007]

This one seems nice, it also respects the language and ethnic composition

I appreciate the time and effort spent in creating this map. But it looks laughable. Separate republics for the Siberian tribes such as Nanay, Even, Koryak and Chukchi are not going to work because they have a population of only few thousands (and decreasing with every passing year). They constitute less than 1% of the population in the Krays and Oblasts where they reside. The Yakuts and Buryats are in a slightly better position, but still I don't think that they constitute a majority of the population in their territories. The same goes for the European part. Karelians are less than 10% of the population in Karelia, and Saamis are less than 0.1% of the population in Murmansk. The Komi are around one-fourth of the population in their republic, but you have included the Kray of Perm in your map.

[Poker Player]

But all these events were not specially prepared by Russia, this is just a response to a huge number of sanctions. Those countries that diligently sat and worked out how to take revenge on Russia could be a little wiser, realizing that the boomerang would work against them too.
Politics should always be reasonable, and when it is done with hatred, it always peels off in a negative direction.

Of course, to those who are surprised that Putin wants to sell gas in rubles, saying that this means breaking the contract, I say: "and to freeze the assets that the Central Bank of Russia has in the Western Central Banks is not breaking the contract?"

That exchange rate can last 100 years, just as Venezuelahad one official in place for a year after the differences were closer to 100x if people are not allowed to buy foreign currencies nor are businesses and they are on the other hand forced to convert everything back into rubles you can pretty much say this exchange rate is 1:10, not 1:90, the real value is not there.

Yes, well, the same thing happens in Cuba. One thing is the official exchange rate and the other is that since everyone wants dollars or euros, they give you much more than the official exchange rate in the street for those currencies. So I suppose that the news are perhaps taking for granted the information given by the Central Bank of Russia without contrasting it? That is why I added to the title of the thread "not anymore" but with a question mark, because I wasn't so sure about it.

[stompix]

I appreciate the time and effort spent in creating this map. But it looks laughable. Separate republics for the Siberian tribes such as Nanay, Even, Koryak and Chukchi are not going to work because they have a population of only few thousands (and decreasing with every passing year).

It's not my map and you're only focusing on the population amount.
By your logic San Marino, Andora, Luxemburg, and Liechtenstein should not exist, because they are tiny, right?
And what language do Swiss people have, let's cut the country in 3!

The Yakuts and Buryats are in a slightly better position, but still I don't think that they constitute a majority of the population in their territories.

Yes, they are.
Besides, why does the percentage of population matter anymore when it comes to dividing Russia? When Russian annexed Konisgberg there was no Russian there, when they annexed Moldova? Kurile was full of Russian, right? When you deal with Russia you must use their own logic.
Besides, you're not asking yourself a more important question, are the Russian citizens happy with them earning 1/2 of what the people in Moscow are making while they have 70% of the resources that make up the Russian budget?

Of course, to those who are surprised that Putin wants to sell gas in rubles, saying that this means breaking the contract, I say: "and to freeze the assets that the Central Bank of Russia has in the Western Central Banks is not breaking the contract?"

And suddenly, no more rubles for gas, seems that Euros are good enough.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-says-putin-agreed-to-keep-payments-for-gas-in-euros/a-61310461
Another propaganda move, as useless as the others.

[Furious 7]

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.

There are several factors that underlie it but indeed this could be one of those factors because indeed Putin's ban on conversion to other currencies makes most of them almost certainly shift their assets to crypto now.
but on the other hand even though i still don't really like putin's attitude at this time but indeed he is quite persistent and dares to take risks after a few weeks ago he declared that he was ready to take any risks he was still firm about it

[Sithara007]

It's not my map and you're only focusing on the population amount.
By your logic San Marino, Andora, Luxemburg, and Liechtenstein should not exist, because they are tiny, right?
And what language do Swiss people have, let's cut the country in 3!

San Marino, Liechtenstein.etc have history dating back to hundreds of years as independent kingdoms. You can't use the same logic to compare small Siberian tribes such as the Ewenk and Koryak. And the natives of Andorra, Monaco.etc constitute vast majority of the population in their respective territories. And in case of the Siberian tribes, they don't even constitute a majority of the population anymore in their own native villages (as a result of the collectivization program by the USSR in 1950s). And finally, given their economic and social condition, I don't think that they will be able to survive for too long without the Russian state support.

[DrBeer]

It's not my map and you're only focusing on the population amount.
By your logic San Marino, Andora, Luxemburg, and Liechtenstein should not exist, because they are tiny, right?
And what language do Swiss people have, let's cut the country in 3!

San Marino, Liechtenstein.etc have history dating back to hundreds of years as independent kingdoms. You can't use the same logic to compare small Siberian tribes such as the Ewenk and Koryak. And the natives of Andorra, Monaco.etc constitute vast majority of the population in their respective territories. And in case of the Siberian tribes, they don't even constitute a majority of the population anymore in their own native villages (as a result of the collectivization program by the USSR in 1950s). And finally, given their economic and social condition, I don't think that they will be able to survive for too long without the Russian state support.

If we talk about the northern peoples, or even more widely - about the lands beyond the Urals, then these are all enslaved, original peoples, with a fairly long and self-sufficient history. At the same time, there are rich reserves of natural resources on their land. As history shows, such peoples can live for quite a long time and with high quality, within the framework of their traditions and habits, without deep integration into the modern world. And in the presence of minerals or resources, they can develop well by attracting investors. What you call "state support" is a play on words. At first, this support destroyed up to 90% of the local population, then appropriated all the resources, and now the local population lives no better than they lived 100-200 years ago ... And given the degradation controlled by the state, their prospects are not very positive.

In order to understand what the Russian state (or rather, the Kremlin authorities) actually brings, just look at the "European" regions of Russia - degradation, poverty, dullness, lack of prospects, moral decay, alcoholism and drug addiction ... Look at Google reviews of Rostov , Ryazan, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Penza or Saratov ... And this is in a country that owns the greatest natural resources on earth! Which positions itself as a "world leader"

Do you know that now the soldiers of the "great Russian army" are stealing in Ukraine and taking them to Russia (yes, they are committing mass looting)? High-quality linen, carpets, televisions, household appliances, tools ... This is all that they do not have, and that is considered inaccessible to them, and the soldiers are residents of just those very European regions of Russia. "Average Russians" ...

[Smartprofit]

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.

There are several factors that underlie it but indeed this could be one of those factors because indeed Putin's ban on conversion to other currencies makes most of them almost certainly shift their assets to crypto now.
but on the other hand even though i still don't really like putin's attitude at this time but indeed he is quite persistent and dares to take risks after a few weeks ago he declared that he was ready to take any risks he was still firm about it

In March 2022, a huge number of people left Russia.  These are IT specialists, Big Data specialists, businessmen, financiers, engineers, theater directors, designers and many others.  

Some experts talk about 1,000,000 emigrants.  

The richest of them leave Russia via Turkey and Thailand.  The poor leave through Georgia and Kazakhstan.  

The ruble ceased to be a convertible currency.  In Russia, you can sell foreign currency (US dollar, euro, pound sterling, Swiss franc, Japanese yen), but you cannot officially buy foreign currency.  

Therefore, all emigrants sell all their possessions and buy cryptocurrency (mostly bitcoin).  

But many businessmen, in principle, are not able to sell their business, since even now it is estimated at billions of rubles.  Such capital cannot be converted into cryptocurrency and withdrawn from the country.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I have read that many companies from Europe are accusing Russia of breach of contract because the ruble is not on the list of currencies in which they pay. But under European pressure many unreasonable sanctions were imposed on Russia, there is nothing wrong with Russia's counterattack. If European companies do not accept payments in rubles, the oil crisis will be even more dire.

For deliveries as per the existing contracts, I don't think that Russia can demand payment in RUR. Maybe for spot deliveries they can demand that. All this rhetoric is just to warn Europeans that if they go too far with the sanctions, then their gas and oil supply will be disrupted. In the end, who is actually suffering? Oil prices are close to historic highs and energy prices in Western Europe has soared to such levels to make lives of ordinary people miserable. And I don't think that Russia is much impacted. The last time I checked, Sokol crude has once again breached the $100 per barrel level.

This is without a doubt a problem that Europe is looking for, for its part RUSSIA is demanding that the payment for gas or even oil be in Rubles, that there is no other way to do it, and on the other hand there are countries that will benefit from this problematic, as well as Colombia, perhaps Venezuela, which by pure inspection we all know that the USA appealed to go to Venezuela to ask for a greater flow of negotiation so that they can supply more oil to cover all the demand that consumerism represents in the USA, from that the USA found a way to satisfy that need, the price of crude oil fell, especially when Colombia entered, the price of oil was around 140usd per barrel, when Colombia entered it fell to almost 110usd, so it is still expensive, when all this is normalize I think that oil will drop a lot in price, because I understand that Russia has accumulated large amounts of oil ready to be sold and this will cause a big drop in the oil market.

[Smartprofit]

I have read that many companies from Europe are accusing Russia of breach of contract because the ruble is not on the list of currencies in which they pay. But under European pressure many unreasonable sanctions were imposed on Russia, there is nothing wrong with Russia's counterattack. If European companies do not accept payments in rubles, the oil crisis will be even more dire.

For deliveries as per the existing contracts, I don't think that Russia can demand payment in RUR. Maybe for spot deliveries they can demand that. All this rhetoric is just to warn Europeans that if they go too far with the sanctions, then their gas and oil supply will be disrupted. In the end, who is actually suffering? Oil prices are close to historic highs and energy prices in Western Europe has soared to such levels to make lives of ordinary people miserable. And I don't think that Russia is much impacted. The last time I checked, Sokol crude has once again breached the $100 per barrel level.

This is without a doubt a problem that Europe is looking for, for its part RUSSIA is demanding that the payment for gas or even oil be in Rubles, that there is no other way to do it, and on the other hand there are countries that will benefit from this problematic, as well as Colombia, perhaps Venezuela, which by pure inspection we all know that the USA appealed to go to Venezuela to ask for a greater flow of negotiation so that they can supply more oil to cover all the demand that consumerism represents in the USA, from that the USA found a way to satisfy that need, the price of crude oil fell, especially when Colombia entered, the price of oil was around 140usd per barrel, when Colombia entered it fell to almost 110usd, so it is still expensive, when all this is normalize I think that oil will drop a lot in price, because I understand that Russia has accumulated large amounts of oil ready to be sold and this will cause a big drop in the oil market.

Why does the Russian government demand that "unfriendly states" buy gas and oil for rubles?  

Earlier, Russia signed a long-term gas supply contract with European countries at a fixed price ($300).  However, at present, the price of gas on the world market is $1,300 per 1 cubic meter.  That is, the Russian "Gazprom" loses $ 1,000 on the sale of 1 cubic meter of gas.  

Putin called the head of Gazprom Miller and demanded that he raise the price of the gas he sells.  However, Miller told Putin that this was impossible.  Unilateral change of a long-term contract is prohibited and punishable by a huge monetary fine.  Then Putin asked Miller how to terminate the long-term contract?  Miller explained to him that the contract could be terminated in the event of force majeure - for example, publications the issuance of a government decree.  Then Putin said - so everything is fine!  We will issue a government decree obliging Gazprom to sell gas only for rubles.  Then European companies will be forced to terminate long-term contracts, and in return we will conclude new ones on more favorable terms!  

This whole story is absolutely wild.  The Russian government is depriving the people of Russia of hope for the future.

[Fortify]

It seems that Putin's gamble is not working out as he had hoped. He is moving militarily rather slower than he anticipated and now apart he has taken two economic measures:

"President Vladimir Putin banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts, potentially putting much of the country’s $478 billion in external debt at risk of default."

Source: Putin’s Ban on Foreign Debt Service Raises $478 Billion Question.

To stop the bleeding of the ruble, which is plummeting even in the face of a weak USD due to over-printing, he has also ordered that: "Russian businesses that trade abroad must sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles...

This is starting to cause panic among its population, which has rushed en masse to withdraw cash from ATMs:

Russians rush to withdraw cash at ATMs as rouble plunges; central bank hikes rates to 20%

The most important thing in the conflict is the human drama with dead, wounded and displaced people, but I wanted to open thread to comment in this economy section what could be the medium term future of the Russian currency and economy.

I wonder if some of these measures affect Best_Change, which I understand is a business located in Russia, but I don't know if they will want to comment anything.

It actually looks like Ruble has recovered since this happened, but it's an expensive illusion that the Russian government is trying to maintain for as long as possible. However the interest rate on the Ruble at 20% is very expensive for the Russian government, but it effectively means they'll just print money and it'll devalue over time if they keep it up. Energy exports will now account for almost the entire Russia economy as so many large companies have left, they have ruined supply chains in an area the produces a bunch of useful raw resources and the inflation rate for the average Russian is expected to be about 15% this year. If Europe is able to steadily wean itself off Russian oil and gas, which might take a few years, then it will have an even more hollow economy.

[barbara44]

It actually looks like Ruble has recovered since this happened, but it's an expensive illusion that the Russian government is trying to maintain for as long as possible. However the interest rate on the Ruble at 20% is very expensive for the Russian government, but it effectively means they'll just print money and it'll devalue over time if they keep it up. Energy exports will now account for almost the entire Russia economy as so many large companies have left, they have ruined supply chains in an area the produces a bunch of useful raw resources and the inflation rate for the average Russian is expected to be about 15% this year. If Europe is able to steadily wean itself off Russian oil and gas, which might take a few years, then it will have an even more hollow economy.

Unfortunately they did. I mean we would love to see what sanctions could have done, I would love it if they could have actually worked and Russians would have stopped Putin and this war would be over. However, Russia seeing how this is going, they will most definitely keep it going because they believe that they have been doing fine.

If the situation got worse and worse than I am sure even Putin would have been scared, but right now not only it gets better, but it is better than they even imagined it would be, basically back to regular life. This is why they do not see a point in stopping, they can attack all the way because there are no consequences.

[DrBeer]

It actually looks like Ruble has recovered since this happened, but it's an expensive illusion that the Russian government is trying to maintain for as long as possible. However the interest rate on the Ruble at 20% is very expensive for the Russian government, but it effectively means they'll just print money and it'll devalue over time if they keep it up. Energy exports will now account for almost the entire Russia economy as so many large companies have left, they have ruined supply chains in an area the produces a bunch of useful raw resources and the inflation rate for the average Russian is expected to be about 15% this year. If Europe is able to steadily wean itself off Russian oil and gas, which might take a few years, then it will have an even more hollow economy.

Unfortunately they did. I mean we would love to see what sanctions could have done, I would love it if they could have actually worked and Russians would have stopped Putin and this war would be over. However, Russia seeing how this is going, they will most definitely keep it going because they believe that they have been doing fine.

If the situation got worse and worse than I am sure even Putin would have been scared, but right now not only it gets better, but it is better than they even imagined it would be, basically back to regular life. This is why they do not see a point in stopping, they can attack all the way because there are no consequences.

Sanctions will work, but don't expect the destruction of the Russian economy to happen overnight. Remember the history of the USSR? Sanctions were introduced in the 1970s, after the USSR unleashed a war in Afghanistan. By the beginning of the 1990s, the USSR collapsed ... It will also happen with Russia, and most likely much faster - the economy of the USSR, although backward, was more or less self-sufficient, although also dependent on Western technologies. The Russian economy is resource-rich, technologically very backward, heavily dependent on Western technologies, money, and goods. I am sure the first noticeable degradation in large cities will be noticeable by the end of summer (August-September of this year), the next 2-3 years will be years of systemic degradation of the Russian economy, when the remaining working industries will fall apart.

[Abiky]

In March 2022, a huge number of people left Russia.  These are IT specialists, Big Data specialists, businessmen, financiers, engineers, theater directors, designers and many others.

Some experts talk about 1,000,000 emigrants.

The richest of them leave Russia via Turkey and Thailand.  The poor leave through Georgia and Kazakhstan.

The ruble ceased to be a convertible currency.  In Russia, you can sell foreign currency (US dollar, euro, pound sterling, Swiss franc, Japanese yen), but you cannot officially buy foreign currency.

Therefore, all emigrants sell all their possessions and buy cryptocurrency (mostly bitcoin).

But many businessmen, in principle, are not able to sell their business, since even now it is estimated at billions of rubles.  Such capital cannot be converted into cryptocurrency and withdrawn from the country.

Exactly. Russians are in a very tight financial situation as a result of the sanctions imposed by Western countries and the EU. It's going to take a hell of a lot of time and effort to be able to put the economy back to the way it was. China may help Russia, but that might not be enough to make the Ruble rise from the ground up. Still, it's probable the Russian government will rely on Bitcoin as a reserve currency in order to mitigate the negative effects of economic sanctions. It may not have much success trading Bitcoin for Ruble (and vice versa) through centralized exchanges, but at least there are alternatives which prove to be a short-term solution to the problem (mainly decentralized exchanges, atomic swaps, and in-person trading).

All in all, I think Russia's current situation will mark the end of Putin's regime for good. The longer it takes for the Ruble to recover, the faster people will emigrate from the country. The wealthiest people in Russia have already fled the country, so things will only get worse from now on. Only a change in Putin's mind (to stop the invasion) will help restore diplomatic relations between Russia and other countries worldwide. Who knows what the future holds for the country itself? Just my thoughts

[DrBeer]

Ruble continues to recover which isn't really surprising since Putin most probably predicted this and planned various measures to counter these issues. This power hungry maniac didn't decide to invade Ukraine on a whim.

He probably planned to execute it once the pandemic effect decreased. Ruble definitely suffered a lot because of his actions, but I don't think it will lead to a Russian economic collapse.

I will tell you one instructive story. about the USSR. For understanding, Russia is one of the wreckage of the USSR, which got most of the assets and gold and foreign exchange reserves of the USSR. The USSR collapsed in the early 1990s. So, the problem with the currency has always existed in the USSR - this market was closed and the citizens of the USSR did not have the opportunity to freely buy currency. But this is a completely different story. So about the main thing - in the 1970s, the USSR starts a criminal war in Afghanistan. The victims of this aggression were more than 1 million civilians killed, tortured, tortured by the soldiers of the USSR army. For this crime, sanctions were imposed against the USSR, including those aimed at the hydrocarbon market. The economy began to receive less foreign exchange profits. At the same time, it should be noted that the resource component in the export of the USSR was much less than that of Russia today. Russia receives more than 40% of its real foreign exchange earnings from the export of hydrocarbons. So, even with an economy less dependent on the sale of oil and gas, the economy began to collapse. And then the games with the ruble exchange rate began. Officially, 1 dollar cost ... 0.68 rubles !!! Despite the fact that the real parity was, from 10-11 rubles for 1 dollar, at the beginning, to an almost Venezuelan scenario, before the collapse of the USSR. But the USSR felt the impact of sanctions 12-18 months after their introduction, and Russia - at the end of the first month ... Then think for yourself about the trends

[Taskford]

It actually looks like Ruble has recovered since this happened, but it's an expensive illusion that the Russian government is trying to maintain for as long as possible. However the interest rate on the Ruble at 20% is very expensive for the Russian government, but it effectively means they'll just print money and it'll devalue over time if they keep it up. Energy exports will now account for almost the entire Russia economy as so many large companies have left, they have ruined supply chains in an area the produces a bunch of useful raw resources and the inflation rate for the average Russian is expected to be about 15% this year. If Europe is able to steadily wean itself off Russian oil and gas, which might take a few years, then it will have an even more hollow economy.

Unfortunately they did. I mean we would love to see what sanctions could have done, I would love it if they could have actually worked and Russians would have stopped Putin and this war would be over. However, Russia seeing how this is going, they will most definitely keep it going because they believe that they have been doing fine.

If the situation got worse and worse than I am sure even Putin would have been scared, but right now not only it gets better, but it is better than they even imagined it would be, basically back to regular life. This is why they do not see a point in stopping, they can attack all the way because there are no consequences.

Sanctions will work, but don't expect the destruction of the Russian economy to happen overnight. Remember the history of the USSR? Sanctions were introduced in the 1970s, after the USSR unleashed a war in Afghanistan. By the beginning of the 1990s, the USSR collapsed ... It will also happen with Russia, and most likely much faster - the economy of the USSR, although backward, was more or less self-sufficient, although also dependent on Western technologies. The Russian economy is resource-rich, technologically very backward, heavily dependent on Western technologies, money, and goods. I am sure the first noticeable degradation in large cities will be noticeable by the end of summer (August-September of this year), the next 2-3 years will be years of systemic degradation of the Russian economy, when the remaining working industries will fall apart.

As long as their allies helping them to recover or avoid those sanctions for sure we cannot see them fall down for what they are facing right now. And looks like they are totally in better shape right now since we know that they are also hurting the economy around the world for their own resources which doesn't cross around the world. And besides Russia will not became big for just nothing so we can expect a fast recovery unto them especially that they are now dealing with China which is their tight ally in trades and other more.