World has just ten weeks' worth of wheat left after Ukraine war

[darkangel11]

It's about time the world did something about that Russian bear that is trying to bully it. Russia even targeted a seed bank in Ukraine but managed to only destroy part of it. They target food stores and warehouses, Russians are stealing farming equipment and destroying grain silos.
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/russian-forces-targeting-grain-storage-to-cause-famine-ukraine-alleges-2022-5

Russia should be kicked out of the UN and other worldwide organizations and summits that it used to participate in. It should become a pariah of the world for what it's doing.

We are going to survive without Ukrainian wheat. I'm sure prices will go up but we'll manage, but this will not be forgotten.

[1715487303]

1715487303

[ololajulo]

for sure, these countries which are relying on ukraine's wheat will always find alternative sources like from china, india, US and other top wheat exporters. or look for wheat alternatives. i don't think they will wait for ukraine's supply just to go on with their lives. they know this situation is about to happen as the war is not yet ending. so high likely that they are already looking for other exporters. it is not the end of the world yet. so as long as we live, there's hope to find these alternative sources. and the reason why 1st world countries won't be affected by this situation is because there are other sources for wheat, maybe, if ukraine is the sole supplier but it is not.

Every country is playing politics with what is happening in Ukraine. Russia, Ukraine, USA and India are top producers of wheat and they are all affected with demand. Ukraine cant produce while everyone is avoiding Russia and USA has not being good business with many countries for a while now. If India now consider to announce to ban export to big countries amidst the price hike, what is the aim of the move?

[DrBeer]

It's about time the world did something about that Russian bear that is trying to bully it. Russia even targeted a seed bank in Ukraine but managed to only destroy part of it. They target food stores and warehouses, Russians are stealing farming equipment and destroying grain silos.
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/russian-forces-targeting-grain-storage-to-cause-famine-ukraine-alleges-2022-5

Russia should be kicked out of the UN and other worldwide organizations and summits that it used to participate in. It should become a pariah of the world for what it's doing.

We are going to survive without Ukrainian wheat. I'm sure prices will go up but we'll manage, but this will not be forgotten.

I hope the world will now have no doubts about the terrorist tactics of the rashists - losing the war in direct confrontation, destroying the infrastructure that ensures the life or even the survival of the civilian population, in order to intimidate, intimidate, and, well, satisfy their bastard fantasies. In Ukraine, granaries have been destroyed, grain from the southern regions of Ukraine, temporarily occupied, is stolen and exported to Russia (state looting). Logistics routes are being destroyed, including those that are in no way connected with the movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, treatment plants, water supply systems, and electricity are being destroyed. Destroyed logistics centers (warehouses) providing food to the city. Food factories are destroyed. This is not a war - this is pure fascism, Nazism, terrorism. And all together - this is called rashizm!

[Hydrogen]

If food growers adopted a crypto token which was backed by food commodities and guaranteed a static exchange rate for a set number of tomatos, potatos, per token.

That could be a good format for future food emergencies.

A crypto token backed by potatoes, tomatoes or even wheat cannot make those foods more abundant and less scarce.

If the cost of growing 1 potato using organic compost and fertilizer, which are decoupled from rising chemical fertilizer prices is $0.20.

A token might guarantee exchange for 5 potatos and sell at a cost of $2.00. Which would be competitive with market prices.

Part of the excess revenue collected would be invested in expanding the production of potatos as well as expanding the organic compost and fertilizer industry. All of which would have an opposite effect in contrast to inflation. Using a model of financial transaction outside of fiat currency would isolate it from inflationary trends.

Increasing production is the means of reducing rising costs and tokens are well suited to providing revenue similar to subsidies to achieve this.

[Sithara007]

If the cost of growing 1 potato using organic compost and fertilizer, which are decoupled from rising chemical fertilizer prices is $0.20.

A token might guarantee exchange for 5 potatos and sell at a cost of $2.00. Which would be competitive with market prices.

Part of the excess revenue collected would be invested in expanding the production of potatos as well as expanding the organic compost and fertilizer industry. All of which would have an opposite effect in contrast to inflation. Using a model of financial transaction outside of fiat currency would isolate it from inflationary trends.

Increasing production is the means of reducing rising costs and tokens are well suited to providing revenue similar to subsidies to achieve this.

Using organic fertilizer and pesticide may work theoretically, but it never works in real life. Look at the case of Sri Lanka. They banned chemical fertilizer a few years back and that is the real reason why they are having the economic crisis now (along with bad loans from China). The world doesn't have enough production capacity for organic fertilizer and they are manytimes more expensive than chemical fertilizer. And farmers who are dependent on chemical fertilizer can't switch to organic all of a sudden. It needs to be a gradual process.

[DrBeer]

It looks like the crisis will end soon. The master of Russia, China, openly ordered the Kremlin to provide green corridors for the export of wheat from Ukraine to buyers. Looks like they understand that in such situations, it’s not far from food riots in the Middle Kingdom, and China definitely doesn’t need this!

"Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a video conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock, expressed his opinion on the situation in Ukraine and the possible impact of hostilities on the food crisis.
Wang Yi called for the immediate opening of humanitarian corridors through which Ukrainian grain could be exported."

The world terrorist will not be able to refuse China, as this will lead to a sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and China, which will mean for Russia the inability to sell surplus gas and oil, which the EU refuses, at a positive price

[justdimin]

It looks like the crisis will end soon. The master of Russia, China, openly ordered the Kremlin to provide green corridors for the export of wheat from Ukraine to buyers. Looks like they understand that in such situations, it’s not far from food riots in the Middle Kingdom, and China definitely doesn’t need this!

"Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a video conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock, expressed his opinion on the situation in Ukraine and the possible impact of hostilities on the food crisis.
Wang Yi called for the immediate opening of humanitarian corridors through which Ukrainian grain could be exported."

The world terrorist will not be able to refuse China, as this will lead to a sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and China, which will mean for Russia the inability to sell surplus gas and oil, which the EU refuses, at a positive price

Wheat is not the only food, there are other foods that will be needed, however China can't solve it all alone, they do export a ton, well they export a ton of everything anyway. All in all, this food crisis will go on, but China is doing something regarding Russia anyway and that means that even they are tired of this war.

Russia needs to get back, I know that they already covered a ton of land, leave Kyiv out of it and just focus on the parts you got and "defending" it, at least that would mean that an open discussion could be had without killing anyone, they are still attacking and killing people which is not needed, never needed before neither, just stop, even China says so.

[merchantofzeny]

Amazing how that one country alone is being relied on for wheat by several countries and that it not being able to export could cause unrest in these. Also starkly reminds us of how interconnected our countries has become that many are no longer able to feed themselves efficiently.

If does come to a no-more-wheat scenario, there's really no choice but to eat something else. When our country started having rice shortages a few decades ago, people ended up having to eat more sweet potato and cassava. So maybe less pita and more pilaf for the Middle Easterners, for example. Tortilla ain't that bad either.

[sovie]

I think if wheat becomes too expensive there are a lot of other types of grains that can be used to replace it that can be produced elsewhere or are already produced in abundance such as oat, barley and rice (these can be milled).

That's true -the war has affected the whole world. Mainly through fuel and secondly through wheat. Although Pakistan is an agricultural country. The wheat prices has already increased and people are in trouble because of fuel and wheat both.
AH _ tough time!

[Jemzx00]

Amazing how that one country alone is being relied on for wheat by several countries and that it not being able to export could cause unrest in these. Also starkly reminds us of how interconnected our countries has become that many are no longer able to feed themselves efficiently.

If does come to a no-more-wheat scenario, there's really no choice but to eat something else. When our country started having rice shortages a few decades ago, people ended up having to eat more sweet potato and cassava. So maybe less pita and more pilaf for the Middle Easterners, for example. Tortilla ain't that bad either.

Actually a lot of countries are bring relied on for various goods and Ukraine is one of the major exporter for wheat. And when one major exporter have been disrupted, other countries tend to be disrupted as well. However, this disruption will not last forever as government will search for alternative to import from.
Just like what happened with you when shortage happened on rice, but later on rice has been available but it came from other country instead and a price fluctuations due to changes on importer of rice.

[kryptqnick]

I must say that this war led me to a number of disappointments. Among them is the disappointment in the lack of care about the ideas appropriated by the Western world as their central values: freedom, human rights, democracy. Leading genocide scholars concluded that Russia's war against Ukraine is genocidal in its nature, and that there's an imminent risk of genocide. All the signatories of the Genocide Convention are legally obliged to prevent genocide. But they aren't doing it, and are letting atrocities after atrocities to build up, many hesitating to strongly help Ukraine in the war and weighing human lives against profits. Then there's this huge risk of decades of progress in eradicating hunger being eliminated right now by Russia's war, and again, it's not a good enough argument to do everything they can to stop Russia. There are countries that are really doing so much, and there are those that are barely doing anything. They don't care about dying civilians, raped children, famine or anything else, really, as much as they care about profits and the growth of their economies. It is very unfortunate that it turns out there are only a handful of countries who truly believe and are ready to sacrifice something for democracy, for saving innocent lives. And I'm sorry that because of the hesitance of certain countries that could help cripple Russia's power but decided against it, more innocent lives will be lost, including those who'll die from hunger.

[sana54210]

I think if wheat becomes too expensive there are a lot of other types of grains that can be used to replace it that can be produced elsewhere or are already produced in abundance such as oat, barley and rice (these can be milled).

That's true -the war has affected the whole world. Mainly through fuel and secondly through wheat. Although Pakistan is an agricultural country. The wheat prices has already increased and people are in trouble because of fuel and wheat both.
AH _ tough time!

Where I am from is a big agriculture nation as well and even with that the prices has soared. The main reason why a nation may have enough wheat or food for their citizens and yet still increase the price is the fact that the other nations that do not have that much food, can't self-sustain, pay a premium price for them, and our nations who have enough, end up selling it to them for more money.

If we kept all of our produce to ourselves, we could feed each other without paying anything, I mean individually you would, but the money would stay in the nation. Instead, farmers and mainly agri-companies end up getting them and selling to other nations and hence the prices soar for us too.

[Ultegra134]

Amazing how that one country alone is being relied on for wheat by several countries and that it not being able to export could cause unrest in these. Also starkly reminds us of how interconnected our countries has become that many are no longer able to feed themselves efficiently.

If does come to a no-more-wheat scenario, there's really no choice but to eat something else. When our country started having rice shortages a few decades ago, people ended up having to eat more sweet potato and cassava. So maybe less pita and more pilaf for the Middle Easterners, for example. Tortilla ain't that bad either.

The issue isn't just the shortage of wheat, it's that the whole world has been disrupted due to the war, while it's rumored to last till the end of the year. Till then, it could even be possible to face fuel and electricity shortages. Fuel has skyrocketed and inflation is soaring, while the Eurozone is discussing to ban vehicles on certain days, regulate A/C usage or even reduce the speed limit, in an attempt to reduce oil and CNG usage. 

[aoluain]

I think if wheat becomes too expensive there are a lot of other types of grains that can be used to replace it that can be produced elsewhere or are already produced in abundance such as oat, barley and rice (these can be milled).

That's true -the war has affected the whole world. Mainly through fuel and secondly through wheat. Although Pakistan is an agricultural country. The wheat prices has already increased and people are in trouble because of fuel and wheat both.
AH _ tough time!

Where I am from is a big agriculture nation as well and even with that the prices has soared. The main reason why a nation may have enough wheat or food for their citizens and yet still increase the price is the fact that the other nations that do not have that much food, can't self-sustain, pay a premium price for them, and our nations who have enough, end up selling it to them for more money.

If we kept all of our produce to ourselves, we could feed each other without paying anything, I mean individually you would, but the money would stay in the nation. Instead, farmers and mainly agri-companies end up getting them and selling to other nations and hence the prices soar for us too.

I am also in a big agricultural country but its predominantly livestock which
the land is used for. The government here was appealing to farmers to product more
grains this year but I not sure its going to work because a lot of farmers dont have the machinery.

Its crazy how something as simple as grain has been monopolised by a few countries
and now it looks like we are going to suffer from it. so many countries have had the potential
to produce enough staples for domestic use.

[crzy]

Not sure if this is worrying thing because world is big, so many counties are out there who farm wheat and can get opportunity to export from their lands. If time comes then definitely those countries who are not in export business will have this opportunity and they should start doing business like this.

Moreover, if the shortage is so prominent then they will start searching for alternatives right from this date. That management is always there back of the mind of government and management team. Hope so these things do not escalate to the war situation.

Those local farmers can’t produce that much and can’t supply the whole needs of their own country, i’m talking about small countries here so technically their next best option is to import, and if there’s a shortage in a world market, you can expect for the price to rise along with the raw materials price increases, this could hurt many people. I hope the world can have other option, we are slowly getting into this crisis.

[goaldigger]

Not sure if this is worrying thing because world is big, so many counties are out there who farm wheat and can get opportunity to export from their lands. If time comes then definitely those countries who are not in export business will have this opportunity and they should start doing business like this.

Moreover, if the shortage is so prominent then they will start searching for alternatives right from this date. That management is always there back of the mind of government and management team. Hope so these things do not escalate to the war situation.

Those local farmers can’t produce that much and can’t supply the whole needs of their own country, i’m talking about small countries here so technically their next best option is to import, and if there’s a shortage in a world market, you can expect for the price to rise along with the raw materials price increases, this could hurt many people. I hope the world can have other option, we are slowly getting into this crisis.

There’s a large number of companies who uses wheat as their main ingredients and yes, local farmers can’t supply everything especially if the government is not that supportive for them and always choose to import products. If there’s already an indication that this crisis can be more worst, then I believe its the right time now to give the best support to our local farmers, and once they have that help most probably their production will increase and that may already enough to sustain the needs of the country.

[Sithara007]

Those local farmers can’t produce that much and can’t supply the whole needs of their own country, i’m talking about small countries here so technically their next best option is to import, and if there’s a shortage in a world market, you can expect for the price to rise along with the raw materials price increases, this could hurt many people. I hope the world can have other option, we are slowly getting into this crisis.

Wheat prices have almost doubled from the levels we had last year. Now one tonne of wheat is trading at around $450. What exacerbated this situation is the export ban from India (apart from the Russia-Ukraine war). Last year, the wheat prices were too low and many of the small scale farmers suffered crippling losses. And they scaled down their output for this year. And when the prices are back to normal levels, these guys are not profiting out of it, because they don't have enough wheat stocks to sell. The same is the case with some of the other grains, such as barley.

[stompix]

I'm not certain what proportion of european diets are derived from wheat sources. This seems as if it might be bad news.
We have had claims of "apocalyptic" food prices for awhile now. While naysayers claim it will not affect 1st world countries.

So the telegraph is the new dailymail...
I just hate it when people who have no idea what they are talking about put sensationalist titles in newspapers they know will be read by millions

First, let's exclude the fact that what in deposits doesn't mean total wheat available, depending on the country there are around 3-6 weeks of wheat consumption already on the line, meaning moving from deposits in transit, in companies storage, in mills, already as flour being transported and deposited, and as flour in stores or in logistic deposits or already at your bakery, so 10 weeks of storage means about 15 weeks of consumption available already.

Second
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_calendar/europe.aspx
15 weeks mean nearly 4 months, that's middle September, and by that date all of Europe wheat had been harvested.

Third:

Conditions for Western growers have been poor due to dry conditions.

BS
https://www.reuters.com/article/eu-grains-coceral-idAFL2N2XJ0ER

PARIS, May 27 (Reuters) - Grain trade association Coceral raised on Friday its forecast of this year’s soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain, to 143.0 million tonnes from 141.3 million estimated in March, notably due to beneficial rainfall in Spain.
The raised forecast compared with 2021 production of 143.9 million tonnes, Coceral said.

Fourth

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is tightening its grip on wheat supplies after a stronger harvest. Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities research at Rabobank, said mild conditions in Russia – which accounts for about a fifth of global wheat exports – had put it on track to produce 84.9m metric tonnes of the staple grain this year.

Russia produces 84.9 million tons, good...
The EU produced 119.1 million tonnes of common wheat in 2020 and 286.5 million tonnes of all cereals.
You can look at the statistics at FAO and see the reality behind the clickbait's shitnews



So, while Europe can still export and doesn't ban exports, there will still be enough food, if the EU does the same as India, the rest of the world is fucked, with only Canada and Australia left as major exporters!

[bakasabo]

After seeing how European economy got hit after sanctions and war, I dont that they will ban wheat export, because they are in need of money and Europe does not consume 100% of produced wheat. Also I think that a lot of people are dramatizing this wheat situation. People will find a way to replace it with something else.

[Haunebu]

Also I think that a lot of people are dramatizing this wheat situation. People will find a way to replace it with something else.

Exactly. I don't get why people blow things out of proportions unnecessarily sometimes despite being aware of all the facts.

Wheat can easily be replaced by rice etc  temporarily which is why it's not really a big deal. If people could survive something like COVID, they can definitely survive wheat shortage for a certain amount of time.