Bitcoin price with a 4 year cycle?

[Fundamentals Of]

It was around this current price that Bitcoin had in January of last year. In November of the same year, the $69,000 ATH was reached. So it is very possible also that from this day, it would take less than a year before another ATH will be reached.

Again, ATH can be reached after the process of block halving, and if I'm not mistaken, it will be in 2024.so it's going to be more than 2 years before we can see that supposedly 6 digit price prediction.

I'm not really sold to this 4-year cycle but since I don't really have a detailed technical analysis to somehow counter or argue against it, then we will just wait and see if this pattern will continue the fourth time around.

But if history will indeed happen once more, then it would not only be more than 2 years before a new ATH will be recorded. It will be more than 3 years. The next halving will happen 2 years from now. And since the ATH usually takes place more than a year after the halving, then the ATH will probably come not in 2024 but in 2025. That's a very long time.

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[tokeweed]

The funny thing about a lot of people is they usually think that 'this time it's different.'.  It's never different because BTC's 4 year halving cycle is always being anticipated and always being played accordingly.  And here's the thing, as long as the whole crypto market revolves around BTC then it's also trapped together with BTC's 4 year cycle.  

I think in order for the market to break away from said cycle, BTC would have to lose dominance over the rest of the crypto market and have another coin lead the market.  Say ETH flippens BTC...  Yeah yeah I know but what if.  Then I think it would be the only time we could say 'this time it's different.'.

*Mutes thread*

[piebeyb]

It was around this current price that Bitcoin had in January of last year. In November of the same year, the $69,000 ATH was reached. So it is very possible also that from this day, it would take less than a year before another ATH will be reached.

Again, ATH can be reached after the process of block halving, and if I'm not mistaken, it will be in 2024.so it's going to be more than 2 years before we can see that supposedly 6 digit price prediction.

the 4 year cycle seems to be broken and we didn't really hit the expected ATH last year in 2021 where it should have hit above $100k lol

but I will provide monthly charts here that I often use the MACD indicator where it looks like we still need a little more time to get the bull market back

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2dy9idBH/

The funny thing about a lot of people is they usually think that 'this time it's different.'.  It's never different because BTC's 4 year halving cycle is always being anticipated and always being played accordingly.  And here's the thing, as long as the whole crypto market revolves around BTC then it's also trapped together with BTC's 4 year cycle. 

I think in order for the market to break away from said cycle, BTC would have to lose dominance over the rest of the crypto market and have another coin lead the market.  Say ETH flippens BTC...  Yeah yeah I know but what if.  Then I think it would be the only time we could say 'this time it's different.'.

*Mutes thread*

yes that's true but the 4 year cycle can happen again and again and people might save their money to wait a long time to buy cheap crypto, but no one knows if it will happen again and I'm sure it won't happen again , this thread will live to share thoughts about it

[Despairo]

Bitcoin doesn't always need 4 year cycle to achieve new ATH because currently we're already in phase where almost of Bitcoin already being mined (19 million circulations from 21 million circulations or around 90%). Most people always look from the history and this lead their thought every 4 year Bitcoin will achieve new ATH and for 2 years Bitcoin will suffered in bear seasons. We are not lack of Bitcoin traders or holders, but we are lack of knowledgeable users who learn about Bitcoin first before focus on the price and profit.

[piebeyb]

Bitcoin doesn't always need 4 year cycle to achieve new ATH because currently we're already in phase where almost of Bitcoin already being mined (19 million circulations from 21 million circulations or around 90%). Most people always look from the history and this lead their thought every 4 year Bitcoin will achieve new ATH and for 2 years Bitcoin will suffered in bear seasons. We are not lack of Bitcoin traders or holders, but we are lack of knowledgeable users who learn about Bitcoin first before focus on the price and profit.

agree with you, people need to understand and learn about bitcoin as well as other altcoins, we don't need history that keeps repeating itself because the supply of bitcoins is only 2 million available even when the price really drops to $10k I'm sure rich people will pick it up a lot and the remaining supply is only 2 million plus the decreasing block reward makes us understand that it seems difficult to see the price of bitcoin going at a lower price than the current price

[doomloop]

I feel that we no longer need to wait up to 4 years to get ATH on bitcoin price as well as next crypto price

Some users are also speculating like that. They say that bears can continue till the year of 2024, maybe because every 4 year there was a halving? But for me I don't believe on that perception. Many happenings or events that can happen within 2 years and that can affect the price of bitcoin.

Maybe the price can become stable or dump more or maybe the price can pump higher. Also we shouldn't forget the fact that people still continuously buy bitcoin. They don't wait till 2023 or a much closer date to 2024 before they buy bitcoin. That event can also contribute to the recovery of the price and possibly can lead for it to exceed a certain limit.

[justdimin]

The price dump took place in May of last year as well as May of this year, bitcoin should have really earned $100k last year like a lot of speculation and predictions that we have probably all seen on the internet or this forum, but apart from that things are different. this year it looks like bitcoin will continue to hit another new ATH after weak hands dumped it at its current low price

100K was a bit of a tough task because the start of that run was at around 10k, during the may of 2020 during halving we were at around 10k, and during April of 2021 which was less than a year later, we reached 64k, that is x6+ plus we did that from 10k to 64k and not from 1k to 6.4k, so the money required to get there was a lot as well.

This time around we dropped to 30k and that is seen as a bad thing by many people but the relaity is that we could be seeing this as a great thing because if we do x6 again that would be 180k, a bit more and we reach 200k. So not only we have a chance to break over 100k, but we have a chance to reach 200k during next bull run.

[STT]

100k is not unreasonable but the rush to assume it will occur now is more of a problem.  If we had 6x from the low of 25k thats well clear of 100k and long term possible, it'll likely be alongside fairly large events or changes in the world and I see those things happening on their own time line so its not now and thats fine.  People expect too much so we sell, its almost cause and effect and I'm less bearish then otherwise because the hype needed to be clipped in a healthy way.

I'm sure rich people will pick it up a lot

Rich people dont matter in that way, its why they are rich is what we really care about.   If they can partake in BTC, gain and add to at the same time theres a mutual benefit.   BTC will gain from adoption from across the population but the more widespread the better, rich people cant force anything here and I imagine they'd end up favoring a centralized digital standard not BTC which is far too uncontrolled.
  You wont get much more avant-garde then Elon Musk but I dont consider him a proper influence even with the really large recent involvement he had, its not a driving force imo so I'm not looking at anyone else.  People in general we do need them to use BTC increasingly so thats the real measure not the constant graph watch on prices which is secondary importance mostly speculative.

[Captain Corporate]

Rich people matter in the sense that they have stronger hands, meaning that if they buy, we do not have to worry about them selling that easily. However, that is something regarding the drop of the price, and not about the increasing of the price, that would mean that rich people need to keep on notifying the world whenever they buy a bunch. 100K is basically x3 give or take right now, which is nothing in the crypto world, I am %100 sure that we are going to end up with that one day or another, its really such a small increase that I personally believe that nothing could stop bitcoin from reaching that level eventually.

[Marvell1]

This time around we dropped to 30k and that is seen as a bad thing by many people but the relaity is that we could be seeing this as a great thing because if we do x6 again that would be 180k, a bit more and we reach 200k. So not only we have a chance to break over 100k, but we have a chance to reach 200k during next bull run.

I think 100k $ is a reasonable target, 180k $ for the next bull season is a bit high?. From 1 to 10 is simple, but 10 to 100 is completely different. The bearish cycle is not over yet and currently bitcoin is trading at $ 30,000 for me which is not too bad either. If bitcoin can sustain this price until the end of the bear season, my target is still $ 100k for the next bull season.

[ololajulo]

Well we've heard about super cycles, or a new trend that it's going to emerge and not follow the 4 year cycle as bitcoin's narrative has change.

However, I will say that this is not the case, we will just as least for me, will still follow the 4 year cycle. We all know that there is halving, the most important event in our history and the future price movement still is based n this process. Of course, we can argue that bitcoin's historical data is fairly young as compare to traditional financial markets so it's hard to identify cycles. But for now, I will have to agree that there is a 4 year cycle.

Super cycle description really gave a stare when the market came back after the dump in May and make very close new ATH in November. I think things will change on the 4 year cycle and make it unpredictable, halving may still be a important date to start a cycle but the bull pump will get more unpredictable. The 4 year cycle make it very interesting but the process of onchain will affect the coin in future

[Oceat]

Well we've heard about super cycles, or a new trend that it's going to emerge and not follow the 4 year cycle as bitcoin's narrative has change.

However, I will say that this is not the case, we will just as least for me, will still follow the 4 year cycle. We all know that there is halving, the most important event in our history and the future price movement still is based n this process. Of course, we can argue that bitcoin's historical data is fairly young as compare to traditional financial markets so it's hard to identify cycles. But for now, I will have to agree that there is a 4 year cycle.

Super cycle description really gave a stare when the market came back after the dump in May and make very close new ATH in November. I think things will change on the 4 year cycle and make it unpredictable, halving may still be a important date to start a cycle but the bull pump will get more unpredictable. The 4 year cycle make it very interesting but the process of onchain will affect the coin in future

Nah, I would still follow the 4 year cycle since that is the time Bitcoin would start to pump after the halving and there's no need to change that. The more Bitcoin do the halving the more the market price getting expensive that's why it pump like skyrocketing to the moon after the halving since that is the start of bull run although it takes time to become bullish though. And the recent pumping back and forth getting a new ATH was just new to me although we aren't certain that it would happen in the next bull run cycle.

[fortuner]

Well we've heard about super cycles, or a new trend that it's going to emerge and not follow the 4 year cycle as bitcoin's narrative has change.

However, I will say that this is not the case, we will just as least for me, will still follow the 4 year cycle. We all know that there is halving, the most important event in our history and the future price movement still is based n this process. Of course, we can argue that bitcoin's historical data is fairly young as compare to traditional financial markets so it's hard to identify cycles. But for now, I will have to agree that there is a 4 year cycle.

Super cycle description really gave a stare when the market came back after the dump in May and make very close new ATH in November. I think things will change on the 4 year cycle and make it unpredictable, halving may still be a important date to start a cycle but the bull pump will get more unpredictable. The 4 year cycle make it very interesting but the process of onchain will affect the coin in future

Nah, I would still follow the 4 year cycle since that is the time Bitcoin would start to pump after the halving and there's no need to change that. The more Bitcoin do the halving the more the market price getting expensive that's why it pump like skyrocketing to the moon after the halving since that is the start of bull run although it takes time to become bullish though. And the recent pumping back and forth getting a new ATH was just new to me although we aren't certain that it would happen in the next bull run cycle.

How can you see if the bitcoin price recently got a new ATH while at the moment the bitcoin price is still below $30 and around $28 and this means the bitcoin market is still bull lish and we also don't know when this bearish situation will end.
So let's just be patient.

[btc78]

This time around we dropped to 30k and that is seen as a bad thing by many people but the relaity is that we could be seeing this as a great thing because if we do x6 again that would be 180k, a bit more and we reach 200k. So not only we have a chance to break over 100k, but we have a chance to reach 200k during next bull run.

I think 100k $ is a reasonable target, 180k $ for the next bull season is a bit high?. From 1 to 10 is simple, but 10 to 100 is completely different. The bearish cycle is not over yet and currently bitcoin is trading at $ 30,000 for me which is not too bad either. If bitcoin can sustain this price until the end of the bear season, my target is still $ 100k for the next bull season.

180k USD is a small amount to be targeted for the next Halving season(Bull run) in 2017 we hit almost 20k and in 2021 we hit almost 70k so look at it, that is more than 300% increase from the past ATH , so if we will look at it for 2025?  then that would be more than 200k so yeah it will be attainable i think..
but still depend on how we will support the market because we are the one who will make this happen .

[Pejoh Asu]

In 2014 I first heard about Bitcoin, but at that time a lot of negative news because many were sure that the future of Bitcoin would end because drops from more than $ 1000 to under $ 150, but Bitcoin could rise and skyrocket in 2017 and then drop again again , next is 2021 which skyrocketed and 2022 drops more than 50%, if you look at the graphics, of course this is a 4 -year trend that is repeated.

[wiss19]

The funny thing about a lot of people is they usually think that 'this time it's different.'.  It's never different because BTC's 4 year halving cycle is always being anticipated and always being played accordingly.  And here's the thing, as long as the whole crypto market revolves around BTC then it's also trapped together with BTC's 4 year cycle.  

I think in order for the market to break away from said cycle, BTC would have to lose dominance over the rest of the crypto market and have another coin lead the market.  Say ETH flippens BTC...  Yeah yeah I know but what if.  Then I think it would be the only time we could say 'this time it's different.'.

*Mutes thread*

I always said that it is 3 year cycle and never anyone found an argument against it. Remember that 2011 was the year where all of this pizza deals and the price going up all of that happened, 2014 was the year where we broke over 1k for the first time, 2017 was the year when we reached 20k, and 2020 was the year we started to go up a lot, sure it kept on until 2021 but it started all in 2020 and broke over the previous ATH in 2020.

So all in all, I always believed that it was 3 year cycle and not a 4 year cycle. I do believe that it could be broken, why shouldn't it be broken, of course it can be, but so far I haven't seen it broken yet.

[DoublerHunter]

The funny thing about a lot of people is they usually think that 'this time it's different.'.  It's never different because BTC's 4 year halving cycle is always being anticipated and always being played accordingly.  And here's the thing, as long as the whole crypto market revolves around BTC then it's also trapped together with BTC's 4 year cycle.  

I think in order for the market to break away from said cycle, BTC would have to lose dominance over the rest of the crypto market and have another coin lead the market.  Say ETH flippens BTC...  Yeah yeah I know but what if.  Then I think it would be the only time we could say 'this time it's different.'.

*Mutes thread*

I always said that it is 3 year cycle and never anyone found an argument against it. Remember that 2011 was the year where all of this pizza deals and the price going up all of that happened, 2014 was the year where we broke over 1k for the first time, 2017 was the year when we reached 20k, and 2020 was the year we started to go up a lot, sure it kept on until 2021 but it started all in 2020 and broke over the previous ATH in 2020.

So all in all, I always believed that it was 3 year cycle and not a 4 year cycle. I do believe that it could be broken, why shouldn't it be broken, of course it can be, but so far I haven't seen it broken yet.

^ I am almost convinced by your point and it seems you are right.
If we look back the history it seems this is what exactly happened, but I thought it will take 1 year right after the next halving the price will increase but now I realized it only has 3 years gap. So possible by next there will be a new ATH again, but last year 2021 we have experienced a twice ATH and I hope soon there will be another raise of ATH in the market.
However, that cycle is not a guarantee that BTC will follow the cycle, it will remain unpredictable.

[ninis45]

the market cycle seems to make a certain market become a green field full of fruit gardens that are ready to be picked, but why did that happen...? Has this really become a candle that has been manipulated by whales and bears, so for us holders it seems very easy to buy and sell in the next 3-4 years ...... even though I hope the market changes quickly and goes to ath new but this is impossible because the recovery is too fast to be reversed

[serjent05]

yes that's true but the 4 year cycle can happen again and again and people might save their money to wait a long time to buy cheap crypto, but no one knows if it will happen again and I'm sure it won't happen again, this thread will live to share thoughts about it

We don't know what lies ahead of us, especially what Bitcoin market trend is up in the next few months.  Remember TA had been shamed by BTC multiple times so if we rely on the TA for BTC trend then there is a huge possibility that we are wrong on our next prediction.  I am not against your thought of a 4-year cycle not happening this time since I am open to all possibilities but between a TA  that had been shamed by the BTC market multiple times and a cycle that had been followed by BTC several times, I would still be inclined that BTC will still follow its 4-year cycle trend.

If we look back the history it seems this is what exactly happened, but I thought it will take 1 year right after the next halving the price will increase but now I realized it only has 3 years gap. So possible by next there will be a new ATH again, but last year 2021 we have experienced a twice ATH and I hope soon there will be another raise of ATH in the market.

After BTC halving Bitcoin tends to have a series of ATH-breaking events until the Bull market shifted to the Bear market.

However, that cycle is not a guarantee that BTC will follow the cycle, it will remain unpredictable.

I agree, it is not guaranteed so we just need to wait and see if it will happen again or not.

[CaVO32]

In 2014 I first heard about Bitcoin, but at that time a lot of negative news because many were sure that the future of Bitcoin would end because drops from more than $ 1000 to under $ 150, but Bitcoin could rise and skyrocket in 2017 and then drop again again , next is 2021 which skyrocketed and 2022 drops more than 50%, if you look at the graphics, of course this is a 4 -year trend that is repeated.

Though we can never be sure about the future but we are just hoping positive movement basing on its 4-year cycle. As we are just waiting for things to happen, what we can do today is think of ways how to possibly take advantage of the market, if you believe that there's bright future for you on this market. Not all can spend their hard-earned savings for a market that is too volatile and not stable. So it is your own prerogative if you will continue to support this market or not.