Bitcoin price with a 4 year cycle?

[wxa7115]

Keeping in mind and resuming for my thread here , I feel that we no longer need to wait up to 4 years to get ATH on bitcoin price as well as next crypto price

this is just my speculation as we saw a few years earlier where bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies didn't have many investors, rich people or big companies put their money into bitcoin

Look at bitcoin today, you know that at this time there are quite a lot of big companies and investors even rich people have invested putting their money into bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies, several heads of state and even famous artists in my country also invest a lot maybe in your country too , so maybe we don't have to worry about the recent bearish news

I'm happy to open this thread to be able to share my thoughts as well as speculation and analysis from the forum community on the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Do you think we will follow the 4 year cycle again or we will go to the next ATH?

When the bull run began people saw that it was slower than the previous ones, and while we could attribute this to the fact that bitcoin is bigger and as such it needs more and more money to move up in price, at the same time there was a reason to believe that bitcoin could get out of the 4 year cycle we have been experimenting since the creation of this market.

However with the current bear market we are going through, things are not as clear as before, so we will need to wait and see if bitcoin has been finally be able to break free from the 4 year cycle or if we have to wait even more to see something like this happening.

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[wagmi]

I voted yes, why not. 

Halving is a very relevant event for Bitcoin because it is huge!
It's a demonstration of Bitcoin's scarcity, going down every 4 years.
And every 4 years, inflation is halved.

It's a question how much Bitcoin will rise but a rising Bitcoin price is very likely. 

[Gianluca95]

I don't think so in this time. Thins has been changed, price and actors on this market are different, and can also happen that price will rise the next year, and not in 2025. Why? Because of quantitative easing, that is the best

indicator to be look for the success of bitcoin and the stocks (in general).

I guess that many time should pass before of a new rise of bitcoin...

[virasog]

In addition to the four-year cycles of bitcoin growth, we can also see two-year cycles when the price declined sharply. From recent history, this has happened in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Therefore, if we are not at the bottom now, we will probably reach it soon. And it may take another two years to recover and then a new bull run after the halving will occur.

Sometimes I think that every year there is a different scenario and I do not fully believe the bitcoin 4 year cycle period. The reason is that in last year 2021, bitcoin did not reach the blow off targets. If you compare 2017 and 2021 bull markets, you will see a lot of differences between these two bull markets.
Also, this means we may also not see a big dump in the year 2022 and hopefully 26-27K was the bottom of the bear market.

[Reatim]

I voted yes, why not.  

Halving is a very relevant event for Bitcoin because it is huge!
It's a demonstration of Bitcoin's scarcity, going down every 4 years.
And every 4 years, inflation is halved.

It's a question how much Bitcoin will rise but a rising Bitcoin price is very likely.  

We have experienced that for over 10 years now so how many Halving had passed and all give us beneficial market so why doubt this to happen once again?
and besides this trend is our Only hope specially for those Long Term Holder that making money for quite some time lol .

Bitcoin to the moon in 2025  

I don't think so in this time. Thins has been changed, price and actors on this market are different, and can also happen that price will rise the next year, and not in 2025. Why? Because of quantitative easing, that is the best

indicator to be look for the success of bitcoin and the stocks (in general).

I guess that many time should pass before of a new rise of bitcoin...

But if you really know the market of crypto  then at least you knew that each Halving there is a great increase happening from the market and this is something what people are talking about here.

[btc78]

This time around we dropped to 30k and that is seen as a bad thing by many people but the relaity is that we could be seeing this as a great thing because if we do x6 again that would be 180k, a bit more and we reach 200k. So not only we have a chance to break over 100k, but we have a chance to reach 200k during next bull run.

I think 100k $ is a reasonable target, 180k $ for the next bull season is a bit high?. From 1 to 10 is simple, but 10 to 100 is completely different. The bearish cycle is not over yet and currently bitcoin is trading at $ 30,000 for me which is not too bad either. If bitcoin can sustain this price until the end of the bear season, my target is still $ 100k for the next bull season.

180k USD is a small amount to be targeted for the next Halving season(Bull run) in 2017 we hit almost 20k and in 2021 we hit almost 70k so look at it, that is more than 300% increase from the past ATH , so if we will look at it for 2025?  then that would be more than 200k so yeah it will be attainable i think..
but still depend on how we will support the market because we are the one who will make this happen .

Honestly, I do expect that to happen, but in my opinion it's too high to be achieved by 2025. ATH 200k by 2025 means that the price of bitcoin will have to increase about 6 times the current price. If history keeps repeating that, then we get the ATH you say. However, there are no guarantees, so it's all just conjecture since no one knows what bitcoin will look like in the next bull run. And if the cycle repeats, it is entirely possible that bitcoin continues to drop below 20k.

Yeah , it is still better to not expect too much because failure may come and this is more sadness to bring , though we are not closing our doors for this to happen or now , what is important for 2025 is the price to increase more than the last ATH and at least break that finally the 2=6 figure value.
hope that at least early 2025 we will be having this increase like what happened in 2021 when from January we experienced the growth continuously .

[pooya87]

However with the current bear market we are going through,

I don't think we can call this a "bear market" because if you look at the charts last time we had a drop was about 2 months ago and ever since then the price has been going sideways and sideways movement is not considered a "bear market", it is more like an accumulation phase.

[kotajikikox]

In addition to the four-year cycles of bitcoin growth, we can also see two-year cycles when the price declined sharply. From recent history, this has happened in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Therefore, if we are not at the bottom now, we will probably reach it soon. And it may take another two years to recover and then a new bull run after the halving will occur.

Sometimes I think that every year there is a different scenario and I do not fully believe the bitcoin 4 year cycle period. The reason is that in last year 2021, bitcoin did not reach the blow off targets. If you compare 2017 and 2021 bull markets, you will see a lot of differences between these two bull markets.
Also, this means we may also not see a big dump in the year 2022 and hopefully 26-27K was the bottom of the bear market.

But 26-27k is 60% drop from ATH mate so what is the difference between 2017-2018 and 2021-22? we are still in the second quarter yet experienced this low already so what more in the 3rd quarter that mostly the season when market shows really bad phasing and also the more dumping season before the last quarter comes.
though there is still hopes as we already have institutional investors inside this market and still keeping their funds inside .

[peter0425]

I don't think so in this time. Thins has been changed, price and actors on this market are different, and can also happen that price will rise the next year, and not in 2025. Why? Because of quantitative easing, that is the best

indicator to be look for the success of bitcoin and the stocks (in general).

I guess that many time should pass before of a new rise of bitcoin...

we already experienced that couple of times before and now we are in the waiting for the another 4 year cycle and that is supposedly called Halving season right?

so why doubt this to happen? and besides there is no losses if we will be able to wait for long term instead of short term investing.

[piebeyb]

I don't think so in this time. Thins has been changed, price and actors on this market are different, and can also happen that price will rise the next year, and not in 2025. Why? Because of quantitative easing, that is the best

indicator to be look for the success of bitcoin and the stocks (in general).

I guess that many time should pass before of a new rise of bitcoin...

people don't see a lot of changes and differences between now and in the past, I just think it looks like we don't need to go back to history that keeps repeating itself and it doesn't take long to recover, but I still respect anyone's thoughts

[justdimin]

I voted yes, why not.  

Halving is a very relevant event for Bitcoin because it is huge!
It's a demonstration of Bitcoin's scarcity, going down every 4 years.
And every 4 years, inflation is halved.

It's a question how much Bitcoin will rise but a rising Bitcoin price is very likely.  

We have experienced that for over 10 years now so how many Halving had passed and all give us beneficial market so why doubt this to happen once again?
and besides this trend is our Only hope specially for those Long Term Holder that making money for quite some time lol .

Bitcoin to the moon in 2025  

If you are a long-term holder, trend is not your only hope. So let’s look at the 4 year cycle, would you take 2021 as the year we went up? Because in 2019 we started with 3.5k and reached 14k and ended up with 7k, or the year of 2020 started with 7k, reached over 20k just that year, started the next year at nearly 30k levels, that should tell you something, 2021 on the other hand started around there and peaked at 68k but ended not so greatly at all.

So which year is the cycle? Let’s assume 2021 and 68k as the peak, why shouldn't we have it on 2022? Or 2023? That would break the cycle, but still help the people who hold it long term anyway.

[Joshapat]

I experienced twice the trend, namely in 2014 and 2018, if in 2022 it repeats again then I think it will be difficult Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can rise again, I hope Bitcoin is not dropped significantly like the previous 4 years, now the market has dropped more than 50%, and I hope Can go up again to $ 40K or $ 50k, making us optimistic that the future of cryptocurrencies is still brilliant.

[Oshosondy]

I experienced twice the trend, namely in 2014 and 2018, if in 2022 it repeats again then I think it will be difficult Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can rise again, I hope Bitcoin is not dropped significantly like the previous 4 years, now the market has dropped more than 50%, and I hope Can go up again to $ 40K or $ 50k, making us optimistic that the future of cryptocurrencies is still brilliant.

Bitcoin all-time-high was $69000, now at $30000, the fall is even more than 50% already, that is even for bitcoin, altcoins had fallen more than 70% or 80% or more. As bitcoin had fallen like 2x like you daid, most altcoins has fallen over 5x or more. The bear market is this year just like 2018, nothing is changing that, there is more bear market coming.

[Dave1]

I experienced twice the trend, namely in 2014 and 2018, if in 2022 it repeats again then I think it will be difficult Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can rise again, I hope Bitcoin is not dropped significantly like the previous 4 years, now the market has dropped more than 50%, and I hope Can go up again to $ 40K or $ 50k, making us optimistic that the future of cryptocurrencies is still brilliant.

Bitcoin all-time-high was $69000, now at $30000, the fall is even more than 50% already, that is even for bitcoin, altcoins had fallen more than 70% or 80% or more. As bitcoin had fallen like 2x like you daid, most altcoins has fallen over 5x or more. The bear market is this year just like 2018, nothing is changing that, there is more bear market coming.

Final capitulation might be around 85% from last all time high and it could go down as low as the previous all time high of $19k in 2017. So that is a big fall, nevertheless this kind of drop is needed to sort of shake the market again and then grow as big as its previous runs in the next bull run. So yeah, nothing has change, maybe just the numbers or how much it will grow in 2024-2025.

[wxa7115]

I experienced twice the trend, namely in 2014 and 2018, if in 2022 it repeats again then I think it will be difficult Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can rise again, I hope Bitcoin is not dropped significantly like the previous 4 years, now the market has dropped more than 50%, and I hope Can go up again to $ 40K or $ 50k, making us optimistic that the future of cryptocurrencies is still brilliant.

Bitcoin all-time-high was $69000, now at $30000, the fall is even more than 50% already, that is even for bitcoin, altcoins had fallen more than 70% or 80% or more. As bitcoin had fallen like 2x like you daid, most altcoins has fallen over 5x or more. The bear market is this year just like 2018, nothing is changing that, there is more bear market coming.

Final capitulation might be around 85% from last all time high and it could go down as low as the previous all time high of $19k in 2017. So that is a big fall, nevertheless this kind of drop is needed to sort of shake the market again and then grow as big as its previous runs in the next bull run. So yeah, nothing has change, maybe just the numbers or how much it will grow in 2024-2025.

While that will imitate the drop we saw during the bull run of 2017 at the same time I do not think it is as likely, and my reasoning for this is that this time the bull market was not as explosive as it was back then.

So to me it makes sense the drop could be lower too, however this is something we will only find out as time passes, however regardless of which scenario is the one which will actually come to happen I think it is a good idea to buy some bitcoin right now, as the discount we are currently getting is significant enough to justify using some our cash available to buy it.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I experienced twice the trend, namely in 2014 and 2018, if in 2022 it repeats again then I think it will be difficult Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can rise again, I hope Bitcoin is not dropped significantly like the previous 4 years, now the market has dropped more than 50%, and I hope Can go up again to $ 40K or $ 50k, making us optimistic that the future of cryptocurrencies is still brilliant.

Bitcoin all-time-high was $69000, now at $30000, the fall is even more than 50% already, that is even for bitcoin, altcoins had fallen more than 70% or 80% or more. As bitcoin had fallen like 2x like you daid, most altcoins has fallen over 5x or more. The bear market is this year just like 2018, nothing is changing that, there is more bear market coming.

Final capitulation might be around 85% from last all time high and it could go down as low as the previous all time high of $19k in 2017. So that is a big fall, nevertheless this kind of drop is needed to sort of shake the market again and then grow as big as its previous runs in the next bull run. So yeah, nothing has change, maybe just the numbers or how much it will grow in 2024-2025.

While that will imitate the drop we saw during the bull run of 2017 at the same time I do not think it is as likely, and my reasoning for this is that this time the bull market was not as explosive as it was back then.

So to me it makes sense the drop could be lower too, however this is something we will only find out as time passes, however regardless of which scenario is the one which will actually come to happen I think it is a good idea to buy some bitcoin right now, as the discount we are currently getting is significant enough to justify using some our cash available to buy it.

Yeah, I'm also thinking the same, I mean we've seen the when we drop to $25k, the market bounce back as investors knows that this is the cheapest price that they can get, meaning once the opportunity is there and even we hear a lot of negativity, investors are going to buy bitcoin when their is a huge dip.

So this might be the case again, when it goes down, buy the dip. Anyhow, the 4 year cycle might continue again in 2024-2025 and I'm not seeing that it will be broken anytime soon.

[pooya87]

The fact that we reached the previous ATH (almost at $20k) which has never happened before, is another good indication that the cycles are broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend. If you look at the previous cycles, they always have a much bigger peak compared to this one and their bubble burst never leads to price going to the previous peak. For example when the 2017 bubble burst the price didn't drop to previous peak at $1200 but instead reached $3200 which is about 3 times higher.
This time we didn't even have a bubble and price dropped down to the previous peak!

[piebeyb]

The fact that we reached the previous ATH (almost at $20k) which has never happened before, is another good indication that the cycles are broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend. If you look at the previous cycles, they always have a much bigger peak compared to this one and their bubble burst never leads to price going to the previous peak. For example when the 2017 bubble burst the price didn't drop to previous peak at $1200 but instead reached $3200 which is about 3 times higher.
This time we didn't even have a bubble and price dropped down to the previous peak!

that's why it's necessary to look back at previous historical trails to see how strongly the bitcoin price will hold its current value, i believe that it didn't drop any deeper than people think, i keep reminding when people hoped to hit the $100k price last year it didn't reached, so it looks like the cycle is not working well even at the end of the year bitcoin and other cryptos are experiencing very sharp declines too which shouldn't have happened.

[bitterguy28]

I voted yes, why not. 

Halving is a very relevant event for Bitcoin because it is huge!
It's a demonstration of Bitcoin's scarcity, going down every 4 years.
And every 4 years, inflation is halved.

It's a question how much Bitcoin will rise but a rising Bitcoin price is very likely. 

for several times we observed this already so why need to doubt it could happen ? and also I have seen this in 2017 and in 2021  , so i am confident that 2025 will bring more than what I got last 2 halving .
maybe it is not that easy to wait for long time  but trust me , it is worth a wait and worth a risk.

[19Nov16]

Didn't expect to the current Bitcoin price, until the end of May I was still buying Bitcoin when the price was around $ 32K and now it is more dropped and may be under $ 20K, some time ago it was in the telegram group that predicted there would be panic and now proven, but I hope this will not be long and Bitcoin can return to the $ 35K level.