Bitcoin price with a 4 year cycle?

[SirLancelot]

Didn't expect to the current Bitcoin price, until the end of May I was still buying Bitcoin when the price was around $ 32K and now it is more dropped and may be under $ 20K, some time ago it was in the telegram group that predicted there would be panic and now proven, but I hope this will not be long and Bitcoin can return to the $ 35K level.

Most of us didn't expect this. All the time the price will just fluctuate between 27k to 30k because that is what we see. You bought at 32k? But don't tell me you are regretting now, when you see the current price? But you said you have been buying for almost a month now?

So, my guess is you are doing a dca which means you still have some funds left to buy a btc, but you better leave that telegram group you are currently subscribing because listening to their advises is not beneficial as they only scare the people spreading FUDs and how sure they are that people are now panicking? Panic to buy maybe but panic to sell? I don't think so. We don't know how long the bear will run but btc can soon return on 35k, that's too low and easy to achieve.

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[dataispower]

Despite the worse bear market that we are in right now, I'm still confident that we won't have to wait for up to four years to reach a new ATH. Bitcoin has proven a number of times that it can surprise everybody and that it can deliver what others may think is impossible.

It was around this current price that Bitcoin had in January of last year. In November of the same year, the $69,000 ATH was reached. So it is very possible also that from this day, it would take less than a year before another ATH will be reached.

From what we observed some years back,i will said that the analysis of experiencing the next bear market being in four time is correct. Bitcoin experience bullish market last year that what about 60000 thousand or 69000 thousand.so they are for we began to to experience another fallen of cryptocurrency around September November December in 2021, and if Bitcoin have not recover or reach such year, it will not go back the bullish market many people will think that search policy also speculation is not existing but that is history and the life pattern of cryptocurrency.

[piebeyb]

I think new people with new minds will take bitcoins in their weak hands and anyone who still adheres to the belief about the 4 year cycle I think it will be interesting when the price of bitcoin recovers quickly and then those who sell it cheap will buy it back at a higher price. pricey and waiting in vain under $15k as they expected, let's see

[wxa7115]

Didn't expect to the current Bitcoin price, until the end of May I was still buying Bitcoin when the price was around $ 32K and now it is more dropped and may be under $ 20K, some time ago it was in the telegram group that predicted there would be panic and now proven, but I hope this will not be long and Bitcoin can return to the $ 35K level.

There is no point to panic right now, buying bitcoin when it was around the 32k level was fine as it was difficult to predict that another crash was coming.

So avoid to panic as that is the main reason people lose money in the markets, so take your time and stop reading telegram groups that are negative as this will increase the chances that you sell now when the price is very low, when in fact what you should be doing is the opposite and keep loading all the bitcoin you can get.

[piebeyb]

Didn't expect to the current Bitcoin price, until the end of May I was still buying Bitcoin when the price was around $ 32K and now it is more dropped and may be under $ 20K, some time ago it was in the telegram group that predicted there would be panic and now proven, but I hope this will not be long and Bitcoin can return to the $ 35K level.

There is no point to panic right now, buying bitcoin when it was around the 32k level was fine as it was difficult to predict that another crash was coming.

So avoid to panic as that is the main reason people lose money in the markets, so take your time and stop reading telegram groups that are negative as this will increase the chances that you sell now when the price is very low, when in fact what you should be doing is the opposite and keep loading all the bitcoin you can get.

the best chance is when people don't miss the moment a lot of crypto is also dropping below the ATH it's almost 90% it looks like it's good enough to take it too besides bitcoin which is currently still holding on at $20k, people are too panicked to sell right now

[Wind_FURY]

The fact that we reached the previous ATH (almost at $20k) which has never happened before, is another good indication that the cycles are broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend. If you look at the previous cycles, they always have a much bigger peak compared to this one and their bubble burst never leads to price going to the previous peak. For example when the 2017 bubble burst the price didn't drop to previous peak at $1200 but instead reached $3200 which is about 3 times higher.

This time we didn't even have a bubble and price dropped down to the previous peak!

What will happen to PlanB and his Stock To Flow Model?



I used to doubt it, then I believed it, and then I doubted it again, only to be called stupid for doubting it. I am the stupid one in the forum, but pooyah87 I value your opinion, what's your current opinion of Stock To Flow, and what's your opinion of those people who remain in the belief that it's not a flawed model?

[piebeyb]

The fact that we reached the previous ATH (almost at $20k) which has never happened before, is another good indication that the cycles are broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend. If you look at the previous cycles, they always have a much bigger peak compared to this one and their bubble burst never leads to price going to the previous peak. For example when the 2017 bubble burst the price didn't drop to previous peak at $1200 but instead reached $3200 which is about 3 times higher.

This time we didn't even have a bubble and price dropped down to the previous peak!

What will happen to PlanB and his Stock To Flow Model?



I used to doubt it, then I believed it, and then I doubted it again, only to be called stupid for doubting it. I am the stupid one in the forum, but pooyah87 I value your opinion, what's your current opinion of Stock To Flow, and what's your opinion of those people who remain in the belief that it's not a flawed model?

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1538079814443204609

[bots1]

In my opinion, if the 4-Year cycle of bitcoin repeats itself, then there is a possibility that this year bitcoin will experience a decline of up to 83% from the last ATH in 2021. Moreover, the bearish phase has taken place in the last few months where until now the bitcoin price is still difficult to penetrate the price area above $23k.

[piebeyb]

In my opinion, if the 4-Year cycle of bitcoin repeats itself, then there is a possibility that this year bitcoin will experience a decline of up to 83% from the last ATH in 2021. Moreover, the bearish phase has taken place in the last few months where until now the bitcoin price is still difficult to penetrate the price area above $23k.

no need to worry and you don't have to panic selling it, plant in your mind that 1 BTC = 1 BTC  



keep holder

[Wind_FURY]

The fact that we reached the previous ATH (almost at $20k) which has never happened before, is another good indication that the cycles are broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend. If you look at the previous cycles, they always have a much bigger peak compared to this one and their bubble burst never leads to price going to the previous peak. For example when the 2017 bubble burst the price didn't drop to previous peak at $1200 but instead reached $3200 which is about 3 times higher.

This time we didn't even have a bubble and price dropped down to the previous peak!

What will happen to PlanB and his Stock To Flow Model?



I used to doubt it, then I believed it, and then I doubted it again, only to be called stupid for doubting it. I am the stupid one in the forum, but pooyah87 I value your opinion, what's your current opinion of Stock To Flow, and what's your opinion of those people who remain in the belief that it's not a flawed model?

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1538079814443204609

Do you still believe in "the model"? The model has based everything on the supply side, not the demand side, and it assumes that the demand remains constant. I believe that it is flawed thinking. If there was a Black Swan event that would remove 80% of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market for 5 years, do you believe the model would still work? Simply because supply is limited?

[Epaper]

I think bitcoin price is following a 4 year cycle again. Moreover, throughout this year, bitcoin continues to move in the red zone where the bitcoin price has fallen very badly. The decline in price so far this year has put bitcoin at its worst pace since 2018. Therefore, speculation of a repeat of bitcoin's four-year cycle is likely to re-occur.

[piebeyb]

The fact that we reached the previous ATH (almost at $20k) which has never happened before, is another good indication that the cycles are broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend. If you look at the previous cycles, they always have a much bigger peak compared to this one and their bubble burst never leads to price going to the previous peak. For example when the 2017 bubble burst the price didn't drop to previous peak at $1200 but instead reached $3200 which is about 3 times higher.

This time we didn't even have a bubble and price dropped down to the previous peak!

What will happen to PlanB and his Stock To Flow Model?



I used to doubt it, then I believed it, and then I doubted it again, only to be called stupid for doubting it. I am the stupid one in the forum, but pooyah87 I value your opinion, what's your current opinion of Stock To Flow, and what's your opinion of those people who remain in the belief that it's not a flawed model?

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1538079814443204609

Do you still believe in "the model"? The model has based everything on the supply side, not the demand side, and it assumes that the demand remains constant. I believe that it is flawed thinking. If there was a Black Swan event that would remove 80% of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market for 5 years, do you believe the model would still work? Simply because supply is limited?

not sure just share that tweet and reply to it, i created this thread to see a new thought on the outdated 4 year cycle for the future, i think it needs new thinking to see bitcoin and other crypto hit other ATH without having to look at the 4 year cycle

I think bitcoin price is following a 4 year cycle again. Moreover, throughout this year, bitcoin continues to move in the red zone where the bitcoin price has fallen very badly. The decline in price so far this year has put bitcoin at its worst pace since 2018. Therefore, speculation of a repeat of bitcoin's four-year cycle is likely to re-occur.

If indeed the 4 year cycle happened again we should have got $100k in the last year to be exact 2021, what you saw in May last year bitcoin dropped and other cryptocurrencies dramatically and then got another high price at the end of the year, it happened exactly the same in May yesterday the price of bitcoin and other crypto also fell so I think we will see a green trend when we enter the end of the year

[dezoel]

This is going to take a while before we figure it out. I mean it doesn't have to happen, or it could happen and we do not know what’s going to happen so we can't make our prediction based on that. Scratch that, we could actually make all of our predictions based on anything we want, hell you can make it based on the shape of the moon if you want, it’s all on you, what I mean was we "shouldn't" make it based on that instead.

This is why I believe that it’s going to be something very special and we will end up with a great profit in the long run if we just hold, cycle or not, it will definitely get a lot higher eventually one day and that will require patience.

[Wong Gendheng]

The end of 2017 I bought bitcoin for more than $14k, but the price has been decreasing since 2018 and i sold all bitcoins in june 2018 for $6300, when compared to now of course there are many similarities, namely the price dropped more than 60% compared to previous ATH , of course this makes us worried that the trend of 2022 will repeat in 2018.

[barbara44]

This is going to take a while before we figure it out. I mean it doesn't have to happen, or it could happen and we do not know what’s going to happen so we can't make our prediction based on that. Scratch that, we could actually make all of our predictions based on anything we want, hell you can make it based on the shape of the moon if you want, it’s all on you, what I mean was we "shouldn't" make it based on that instead.

This is why I believe that it’s going to be something very special and we will end up with a great profit in the long run if we just hold, cycle or not, it will definitely get a lot higher eventually one day and that will require patience.

This is true, I can't speak on behalf of the cycle or not, anything could happen, but at the end of the day we are going to end up with something that will be an upward trend one day, which is guaranteed for me as well. I wouldn't suggest anyone to make their investments based on that of course, make your own calculations but I personally feel this way.

This is why I believe that the best thing we could do right now would be waiting, buy and hodl. Everyone does that really, some people eventually sell because they get panic, but aside from that, there are so many people and even companies and hell even nations who just buy and hold, that is the right thing to do.

[wxa7115]

In my opinion, if the 4-Year cycle of bitcoin repeats itself, then there is a possibility that this year bitcoin will experience a decline of up to 83% from the last ATH in 2021. Moreover, the bearish phase has taken place in the last few months where until now the bitcoin price is still difficult to penetrate the price area above $23k.

no need to worry and you don't have to panic selling it, plant in your mind that 1 BTC = 1 BTC  



keep holder

Nice find and if we actually took the time we could find many more people like that just in this forum if we did our best to dig that information out from the old posts.

And just as there were people which capitulated back then we will have people which will capitulate now and which will be quoted a decade in the future about how they gave up their bitcoin at 17k, and the people at that time will be surprised to see someone capitulating at such a low price, as at minimum bitcoin will have a price of 6 figures at that point.

[Paul Pogba]

Yes that's right, if you look at the current price position which has dropped more than 66% then there is a trend equation like 4 years ago, if 2018 took more than 2 years to recover but I'm optimistic that 2022 won't take long to reach new ATH again , maybe it could happen this year.

[STT]

The cycle this time was disrupted by massive printing of USD so Im not sure its quite as reliable as it might be with a steady flow of new dollars.   Its generally true but this might explain why we've returned to the 200 week average after only 2 years previously when we sold off on the initial lockdown and global GDP shock of 2020.   I think we can put in a base price this year and most wont accept this as positive till long after, where as normally it might take alot of 2023 also before settling sideways into 2024.   

[BlackBaron]

this is just my speculation as we saw a few years earlier where bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies didn't have many investors, rich people or big companies put their money into bitcoin

No doubt, I've read about some experts analyze and speculate, about Altcoins and Bitcoin, what actually happened was far from expectations, all beyond reason, ATH and Bitcoin move like missiles, but Altcoins move like turtles.

Meaning, I like you said there is no need to focus on Altcoins, investors tend to be more friendly with Bitcoin.

[TravelMug]

The cycle this time was disrupted by massive printing of USD so Im not sure its quite as reliable as it might be with a steady flow of new dollars.   Its generally true but this might explain why we've returned to the 200 week average after only 2 years previously when we sold off on the initial lockdown and global GDP shock of 2020.   I think we can put in a base price this year and most wont accept this as positive till long after, where as normally it might take alot of 2023 also before settling sideways into 2024.   

Yes, but we will have to wait and see if it is still valid after the halving in 2024. So far still holds true, last bull run 2017 and then 4 years after that 2021, even if we have the corona virus in the background the pattern still hold. The thing is that it become complicated when we have lots of predicted like the S2F model who put us somewhat to believed that $100k can be touch in 2021.