Was $17.5K the low?

[Smack That Ace]

If you are the type that always like to long, rather than shorting, my advice to you would be that you should consider more shorting this time around because we are in the bear market, for now the whales are destroying almost every technical analysis with their manipulation, I strongly have the belief in my opinion though that bitcoin will definitely go below 17.5k, that's not the low, you guys should be watchful of the ending of this month July, its really gonna be a huge blow for those who long, new all time low for the year is coming, don't over leverage!

There are those who predict bitcoin will drop below 17k or even 15k, but no one is certain about the outcome.
At this point if we are still waiting and not buying is not a good idea, for me bitcoin has dropped more than 70% in value is suitable to start buying. DCA is a method that always works in any bear market so my advice is to buy now and dca every time bitcoin price drops more.

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[Sebas.tian]

I hope so, if the price drops again below $ 17k then the opportunity to fall more deeply, maybe it will drop below $ 10K and so on, today the market drop is more than 3% and I hope that it will not be below $ 20k, this is which sometimes makes investors impatient and choose cut loss.

I don't think, the price will drop below $20,000 in this season because the green light is about to remain stable through out this year 2022. I believe, is never too late to buy a huge amount of Bitcoin because the price is still low for any investors to buy and hold for the price to hit back $45,000 before you can sell to make a passive incomes. I think, many has used the opportunity to buy bitcoins when the price dropped down to $17,000 few months ago to  hold and watch when the price will increase higher in the market before they can release them for sale.

[Minecache]

It seems to me that there is no point in guessing where the bottom is now, because if it hasn't happened yet, there will probably be a rebound soon. It is unlikely that bitcoin will suffer the fate of the dotcoms, so I don't think the price will return to very low levels. Even if we have to see 10k, I am sure it will not be long and will be a very good opportunity to buy more bitcoin.

I agree, bitcoin is the Google or the Amazon of the dot com bubble, they went down in value during that time but then they recovered, and if we take a look at the charts of those two companies the dot com bubble now seems like nothing but a small drop.

So the same will happen with bitcoin, however it is going to take some time before the recovery begins and since that is the case then we need to take advantage of the circumstances and buy bitcoin as long as it is available for such a low price.

Yes, I think we might see Bitcoin drops more but this isn't over for Bitcoin. If anything we've learned over the crypto market, dip and hard correction is a normal part of its cycle. If today we're bear then one or two more years, we'll back to bear. Those who see the market now, feel disappointed and rage quit are missing a big chance. 17.5K is the lowest now, maybe it will go lower than that but everyone has to agree there is a high chance it will back to higher in the next few years.

The prediction of the bottom of bitcoin is useless, and in the worst case scenario bitcoin will probably fall to 10k during this bear season, but what is important is to not give up and not to sell, even if the price of our assets is dropping dramatically. As a general rule, bullish and bearish markets are immutable laws of the financial markets and the greater the decline in a market, the greater the increase in the market. Holding is the only key to success.

[BuNga_cute]

If you are the type that always like to long, rather than shorting, my advice to you would be that you should consider more shorting this time around because we are in the bear market, for now the whales are destroying almost every technical analysis with their manipulation, I strongly have the belief in my opinion though that bitcoin will definitely go below 17.5k, that's not the low, you guys should be watchful of the ending of this month July, its really gonna be a huge blow for those who long, new all time low for the year is coming, don't over leverage!

There are those who predict bitcoin will drop below 17k or even 15k, but no one is certain about the outcome.
At this point if we are still waiting and not buying is not a good idea, for me bitcoin has dropped more than 70% in value is suitable to start buying. DCA is a method that always works in any bear market so my advice is to buy now and dca every time bitcoin price drops more.

Everyone is free to determine the lowest price of Bitcoin, but no one is 100% sure that his prediction will be correct. Because the reality is that
the price of Bitcoin is difficult to predict, and Bitcoin often moves not according to our predictions. Therefore we should not delay buying Bitcoin
just because Bitcoin has not reached the lowest price target according to our predictions. If that's the case, we will definitely regret missing
the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a low price, if the Bitcoin price is suddenly bullish.

Because if we understand that our predictions are not necessarily correct, then we have to buy Bitcoin from now on, which is where the actual
Bitcoin price is now very low. Because Bitcoin is down by 70% like you said, although there is actually a possibility that the price of Bitcoin will
still fall even lower, therefore the best solution is to buy Bitcoin gradually. This means that it is better for us to buy Bitcoin every time the price
drops, rather than buying Bitcoin at a certain price with all the capital we have.
 

[boltz]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

[dragonvslinux]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

Very true, for many waiting for a Weekly close above 200WMA will be the better long-term confirmation, whether this be at $23K or $25K becomes irrelevant. While price did get rejected by $22.5K in the short-term, the bullish momentum remains in tact and there are definitely buyers continuing to push prices higher right now. Temporary rejection between the 200WMA and 50 Month MA was to be expected.

[buwaytress]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

Very true, for many waiting for a Weekly close above 200WMA will be the better long-term confirmation, whether this be at $23K or $25K becomes irrelevant. While price did get rejected by $22.5K in the short-term, the bullish momentum remains in tact and there are definitely buyers continuing to push prices higher right now. Temporary rejection between the 200WMA and 50 Month MA was to be expected.

Saw your RSI chart, definitely looks promising if Bitcoin does leave oversold area but it does need to close AND conclude consecutive weekly closes above that 200wma for confidence to pour back in. The volume, which is usually what helps me see the light, is actually the more encouraging point. However, there are enough warnings for a fakeout as well... Not least the exchange inflows preceding.

[dragonvslinux]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

Very true, for many waiting for a Weekly close above 200WMA will be the better long-term confirmation, whether this be at $23K or $25K becomes irrelevant. While price did get rejected by $22.5K in the short-term, the bullish momentum remains in tact and there are definitely buyers continuing to push prices higher right now. Temporary rejection between the 200WMA and 50 Month MA was to be expected.

Saw your RSI chart, definitely looks promising if Bitcoin does leave oversold area but it does need to close AND conclude consecutive weekly closes above that 200wma for confidence to pour back in. The volume, which is usually what helps me see the light, is actually the more encouraging point. However, there are enough warnings for a fakeout as well... Not least the exchange inflows preceding.

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

[wxa7115]

The prediction of the bottom of bitcoin is useless, and in the worst case scenario bitcoin will probably fall to 10k during this bear season, but what is important is to not give up and not to sell, even if the price of our assets is dropping dramatically. As a general rule, bullish and bearish markets are immutable laws of the financial markets and the greater the decline in a market, the greater the increase in the market. Holding is the only key to success.

Without a doubt the most important skill right now we could have is our ability to hold our coins no matter what, people always get mad when the price of the assets in which they invested begins to go down, but this is natural as it is impossible for any asset to always keep going up in value.

However we must recognize that holding can be extremely difficult for those which bought close the new all time high as right now they are experimenting huge losses, and not only that I doubt they had any desire to hold their coins for so long and they were only interested in getting some quick profits, and as such the chances they will be able to hold until the next bull run are quite low.

[buwaytress]

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

Can't help but feel all bets are off with the next macro event (Fed rate hike) in about 2 weeks though but if that situation does happen before then, should be firmer ground since it'd mean the buying is still able to nullify the bears pricing in for the rate hike. Either way, pleased to see determination from the bulls before Monday.

[STT]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective.   Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term.   After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength.   I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

[GeorgeJohn]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective.   Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term.   After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength.   I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

  we are not supposed to be cashing out due to speculation of cryptocurrency. I know that people who is inquisitive of disvalue of bitcoin are the ones that will be desperate of withdrawing attention for more investment. The fraction of bitcoin values is dependable due to what you observe and your notification about cryptocurrency, if we follow speculation we can end up by making a huge mistake.

[dragonvslinux]

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

Can't help but feel all bets are off with the next macro event (Fed rate hike) in about 2 weeks though but if that situation does happen before then, should be firmer ground since it'd mean the buying is still able to nullify the bears pricing in for the rate hike. Either way, pleased to see determination from the bulls before Monday.

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

For now in the short-term, price seems relatively strong despite impending bad news on it's way. That much is a positive sign for now.

[goaldigger]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective.   Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term.   After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength.   I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

We are still trying to break that resistance level, its very critical for Bitcoin because we see another failed attempt, most probably many will sell again since the next scenario could be Bitcoin hitting the support level again. We’ve seen this before, a strong comeback will usually happen after another drop, we might still see red candles but hopefully the $17k mark was already the bottom price for this bear market.

[Mpamaegbu]

I do not think bitcoin price can decrease down to $12000, people are predicting $14000 or $15000 to be the lowest price or that means bitcoin becomes more volatile after this halving than 2016 halving to 2020 before the last halving.

The market is bullish presently as bitcoin increased back to $20000 and moving towards $21000, but if the bear market continues, I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

Do you've any TA handle on this to strengthen your position or it's just another guts feeling? I asked this because I've gone through comments online of market analysts who put it around $12,500. While I admit that we are in a highly speculative market where no one truly can say what direction price is headed, I've to point out that some of these analysts predicted that Bitcoin would crash this heavy when it was still on high above $50k. So, we can't say it will never get to that low point. Recently, before this surge, price was around $18k then, one of those analysts mentioned that Bitcoin would get to $23k but that it would be a bull trap before it went down again. I think that's where we currently are at.

[buwaytress]

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

For now in the short-term, price seems relatively strong despite impending bad news on it's way. That much is a positive sign for now.

Yup, and we saw that the last rate hike too, all that nosediving happened an entire week before the actual announcement, and as soon as the 0.75 rate was confirmed, we actually saw a recovery. Not sure now how it'll all look like as we look headed down to test 20k again before US Monday arrives, but I suspect we'll see a repeat recovery IF rate is the same. Job numbers actually was surprisingly good so if the rate hike is a little lower than expected then we could very well see a strong surge out of oversold area.

[Oshosondy]

Do you've any TA handle on this to strengthen your position or it's just another guts feeling? I asked this because I've gone through comments online of market analysts who put it around $12,500. While I admit that we are in a highly speculative market where no one truly can say what direction price is headed, I've to point out that some of these analysts predicted that Bitcoin would crash this heavy when it was still on high above $50k. So, we can't say it will never get to that low point. Recently, before this surge, price was around $18k then, one of those analysts mentioned that Bitcoin would get to $23k but that it would be a bull trap before it went down again. I think that's where we currently are at.

TA for bitcoin in long term prediction? Even if I have it and most professional, that does not mean it will be correct, even I can not believe in what analysts will say about the price of bitcoin in long term, some of them even said bitcoin will hit $100000, some can overestimate, some can underestimate. Bitcoin may fall below $12000, it may not fall below, but just saying that if bitcoin falled below $14000, the volatile it has in 2016 to 2020 will be lower than the present 4 years volatility, the reason I said it can not fall below $14000. It is possible bitcoin price fall below but my sentiment is around $14000 to $15000.

[Mpamaegbu]

Oshosondy; yes, quite alright we both know this is a speculative market and no one should be taken to have an accurate prediction until it goes into hindsight and then we reconcile what was said and what actually happened. The reason I asked you that question was to find out if you took your assessment based on TA because you showed an element of certainty as captured in your few words in the quoted part below 👇

I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

[Oshosondy]

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

As well for me, but in short term. The short term analyses and the daily prices of bitcoin that I often check can help me to speculate what the price of bitcoin can be in the a year or 2 years to come. What I am just saying is that I do not use indicator to hold, just to trade. To hold, I prefer to use Glassnode information like exchange inflow and outflow, bitcoin halving and other related things about long term speculation. Indicators are essential to traders, not holders, that is what I am saying.

[tygeade]

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

As well for me, but in short term. The short term analyses and the daily prices of bitcoin that I often check can help me to speculate what the price of bitcoin can be in the a year or 2 years to come. What I am just saying is that I do not use indicator to hold, just to trade. To hold, I prefer to use Glassnode information like exchange inflow and outflow, bitcoin halving and other related things about long term speculation. Indicators are essential to traders, not holders, that is what I am saying.

The sailor and compass is a great analogy. If you have a compass, it shows you where the north is, but it doesn't show if you if there is an island between where you need to sail and your ship. It means that if you go straight north, where you need to go, then you will hit another island, which means you will need to make so all adjustments to avoid hitting it. That is how the compass mindset works.

Definitely the TA will help you see the direction you should take, but there will always be adjustments that you will need to make in order to avoid crashing down. It won't be easy, it will take some time to get there, but it will always be possible and I believe you will make a good profit if you get used to it.