Was $17.5K the low?

[dragonvslinux]

I noticed that recently on @bitcoin twitter most users thought that price would reach $15K prior to $25K in the next few months (out of 28.7K votes), with 60% believing price will close the month of June below $20K (40.9K votes). It seems that most Bitcoiners and those following the cryptocurrency are thinking the worse is yet to come. Do bitcointalk users feel the same, who have been in the space for a little longer?

My current outlook is that price will either rebound from the $17.5K lows towards $30K, or otherwise if this support is broken then price will capitulate further to $12K.

Price is currently at the 0.236 retracement level "line in the sand" since the 2020 lows to the 2021 highs. This is where we saw consolidation in late 2020, so not unsurprising to see a bounce from this previous resistance zone. The positive here is the same as the negative imo. There is a big volume gap between $20K and $30K. Likewise, there is a big gap between $17.5K and $12K. Even zooming out further, there isn't much more volume until $12K. [...]

Based on volume alone, it won't be difficult for price to re-test $30K if $20K is reclaimed. Likewise, it wouldn't be difficult to reach $12K if $17.5K support is lost, despite how oversold price currently is. I personally don't understand much fixation with the $14K or $15K level, to me they appear to be of little trading interest. More relevantly, a so-called "typical" 83% correction would be $12K, not $14K or $15K.

I's a potentially bleak outlook, but if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

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[Wilhelm]

Either we are going to see one more squeeze to margin call the longs or we are leaving those behind waiting for $13k coins...

[philipma1957]

you did not give me 13k or 15k or 16k

I personally think 15.1 to 15.5k

[dragonvslinux]

you did not give me 13k or 15k or 16k

Soz 

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I voted for "Price will go to $14K".

Well I'm basing that we are still in the early phase of bear market. and 2023 might be another year for us to experience a continuous downtrend. Maybe for this year it will be the low, but 2023,might be the worse. But we will see, at least from $17.5k to $20k and a 15% increased in the last 24 hours is not that bad.

[Xal0lex]

I's a potentially bleak outlook, but if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

It seems that the market is finally exhausted, having reached the bottom, and now the reversal will begin, well, at least I would like to think so. I look at the charts, it seems in that area, about $ 17,500, in 2020 there was a small consolidation, just before the start of a massive growth, which began to define the new ATH. Maybe this new bitcoin support, we will see in the next couple of days how the price will behave around these values.

[philipma1957]

I's a potentially bleak outlook, but if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

It seems that the market is finally exhausted, having reached the bottom, and now the reversal will begin, well, at least I would like to think so. I look at the charts, it seems in that area, about $ 17,500, in 2020 there was a small consolidation, just before the start of a massive growth, which began to define the new ATH. Maybe this new bitcoin support, we will see in the next couple of days how the price will behave around these values.

Lets hope you are correct and yesterdays dump was it.

[Oshosondy]

My current outlook is that price will either rebound from the $17.5K lows towards $30K, or otherwise if this support is broken then price will capitulate further to $12K.

I do not think bitcoin price can decrease down to $12000, people are predicting $14000 or $15000 to be the lowest price or that means bitcoin becomes more volatile after this halving than 2016 halving to 2020 before the last halving.

The market is bullish presently as bitcoin increased back to $20000 and moving towards $21000, but if the bear market continues, I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

[adaseb]

It seems that this was some attack where there was a huge liquidation at $895 on ETH. They waited until the weekend when liquidity was low to perform this. Basically as soon as the $895 liquidation was hit, price reversed.

Now there is talk that the large FTX exchange might be bailing out some of these liquidated hedge funds. Currently its all speculation however this was enough to cause the market to rally past $20K.

Its crazy how the CME open and closed at pretty much the same price.

[mk4]

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.

[peter0425]

Voted for more lower and seems like most believes this t happen , we are not stopping here t fall because the world are still experiencing our lowering market.
so we are not here to stop and just to bring more low in market , this is the movement towards 2022 and maybe will stay till 2024 before the Halving happens once again.

[pooya87]

A lot of weak hand newbies were purged from the market when the big crash occurred but the problem with irrational market behaviors is that they are going to continue being unpredictable so my vote is the last option.

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.

I think everyone would love that but the problem is that as soon as bitcoin starts rising back up again, the shitprojects would also start being created or existing ones be pumped and dumped again.

[mk4]

I think everyone would love that but the problem is that as soon as bitcoin starts rising back up again, the shitprojects would also start being created or existing ones be pumped and dumped again.

True. Hence why I'd really want bitcoin to drop more. Also, I definitely could be very very wrong but I think BTC's dominance should rise up from here first. This huge drop was mostly caused by liquidation cascades that I don't think we've seen much retail selling yet.

[Sir Legend]

Now the bitcoin price has returned to $20k again, and hopefully $17k is the worst record and doesn't happen again, there will be a big impact if the bitcoin price continues to fall and what I feel is my altcoins also dropped significantly, from this lesson we have to take a plan that if the market has dropped more than 5% then I will immediately switch to stable coins as suggested by coinbase.

[Oshosondy]

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.

But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 20000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly. What I just see is that altcoins have no utility and they are centralized, centralized coins are all not worthy to be coins, but people can not change. I always say this too, altcoins are totally gambling.

[LogitechMouse]

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.

But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly. What I just see is that altcoins have no utility and they are centralized, centralized coins are all not worthy to be coins, but people can not change. I always say this too, altcoins are totally gambling.

Bear market isn't enough to stop for new projects to be created but at least investors will already know that new projects and altcoins can be created but they can't sustain themselves. Investors will know that some new projects out there can't last long and this is also the reason why I'm not investing into new projects anymore. It's very risky for me knowing that the chances of these projects to die or to be abandoned is very high.

Most of the new altcoins that are being created is just because of the hype or they are just following the trend and some of them don't have any use case at all like you said. They don't have their own brand at all which kinda frustrates me a bit but it is what it is.
As for the OP, I still believe that we might reach the $12k price . I just based it on the 2018-2018 crash. With what is happening right now, I still don't see any catalysts that might affect the price movement of Bitcoin or at least there are no reasons for it to make a trend reversal at all.

[Wilhelm]

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.

But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly. What I just see is that altcoins have no utility and they are centralized, centralized coins are all not worthy to be coins, but people can not change. I always say this too, altcoins are totally gambling.

There are 19935 craptos on CoinMarketCap

[mk4]

But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly.

Of course they won't stop. The fact that newer (probably even crappier) cryptocurrency projects can be created doesn't mean the old ones that are useless shouldn't die out.

[NeuroticFish]

I noticed that recently on @bitcoin twitter most users thought that price would reach $15K prior to $25K in the next few months

On Bitcoin twitter handlers you'll see some who are expecting a breakout "any day now" for more than a month (and meanwhile the price keeps going lower)
So I would really take all I find on twitter with quite a pinch of salt.
And whether 17.5k was the low is hard to tell. I think that we can safely say anything only after we're far from this kind of levels, both as price and time (i.e. closer to next halving).

Right now even under-10k levels seem to be possible if we look for rather pessimistic calculations that still somewhat make sense. (I personally think/hope we won't get so low though.)

[Poker Player]

I would like it to have been the low of this cycle, the problem is that as the economic situation is, many events can catapult the price down, and the price of Celsius liquidation is over $14K, so getting close to that price would be very dangerous.

The use of leverage has been partly responsible for the recent downturns we have seen, leverage that has been used and promoted during this cycle, both by certain authors and by the sitees that profit from it.

you did not give me 13k or 15k or 16k

I personally think 15.1 to 15.5k

Are you just going by intuition?

I do not dare to guess, because the price will depend on future events that we cannot predict.

[Husires]

Technical analysis: max bottom (at the present time) is between 12K to 14K, which represents the typical correction of the previous ATH cycles.

The problem is that analyzes follow the trend without knowing the reason.

• if you asked three months ago about the price expectations, you will rarely find someone arguing about the bottom.
• that bottom which (in the past) was about 30k or at levels above 20k according to the most pessimists.

What I mean is that as soon as we go down to those levels, more negative news will surface, meaning if the 12K levels are tested, you will find the fearful people show the 8K analysis without a convincing reason.

Bitcoin Average Mining Costs dropping down which is a good indicator.

[spiderbrain]

I have been holding since before HODL was a thing, and will continue to, but I think we could go lower, maybe $15k, briefly. There just wasn't enough deep fear-driven volume in the low to be the low, IMO.  Especially considering that we dropped below the previous ATH, that is huge.  Magical thinking was supporting the $20k level, now we need a mountain of fear and blood to be the new foundations.

We'll be all back to normal in a few weeks though, enjoy the ride







P.S. this has been confirmed by sauces.

[Kopetunto]

there are still many who speculate and choose Bitcoin down to $14k?, I don't think it's possible,
because $17.5k is a strong support for Bitcoin, so why think about $14k? I myself still hold,
and I'm sure many traders also hold bitcoin for the long term

[proudhon]

Ok, here's what's going to happen. And I've done all the research and science, so you don't have to. First, bitcoin will never be above $20k for more than 1 month ever again. I don't mean this year, or over the next 2 years. I mean ever. Will never happen. So get any hopes of new ATHs completely out of your head. Second, the price of bitcoin at the end of this year will be much, much, much lower than the price right now. Finally, and here's where the science gets a little tricky. Is the price sustainable between, say, $5k and $10k? Maybe, but not likely. My math shows that bitcoin has the highest sustainability quotient between $750 and $2,342; and that's where I believe we're headed. If I wanted to own bitcoin again (I don't because USD is a much safer long term investment), then I'd stagger entries mostly between that range, but I would definitely place some buys in the low hundreds, like around $250 in order to catch some of sharp moves we'll see over the next 2 years.

[OgNasty]

I’d like to think we’ve seen the low. There was no clear spike in volume with a capitulation moment at the low though. Maybe that’s a result of this being an orchestrated attempt to liquidate leveraged players, but if history is any guide I think we still have lower to go before the next leg up. That doesn’t mean this isn’t a good time to buy, but buy slowly with a plan and avoid leverage.

[proudhon]

I’d like to think we’ve seen the low. There was no clear spike in volume with a capitulation moment at the low though. Maybe that’s a result of this being an orchestrated attempt to liquidate leveraged players, but if history is any guide I think we still have lower to go before the next leg up. That doesn’t mean this isn’t a good time to buy, but buy slowly with a plan and avoid leverage.

The best and most scientific strategy right now is high leverage short positions. In fact, that is guaranteed to be the most profitable trade of this decade as bitcoin continues its collapse.

[Yaunfitda]

I’d like to think we’ve seen the low. There was no clear spike in volume with a capitulation moment at the low though. Maybe that’s a result of this being an orchestrated attempt to liquidate leveraged players, but if history is any guide I think we still have lower to go before the next leg up. That doesn’t mean this isn’t a good time to buy, but buy slowly with a plan and avoid leverage.

Well then for others they have to wait for the opportunity to come again, because as this point, we've bounce again above the $20k support. So maybe for this year, we have seen the lows. Nevertheless, I also think that next year, we will still have to go lower and then leg up on 2024. So it remains to be seen and congrats to those who are still holding and then buy more when we have $17.5 a couple of days ago. That was the perfect opportunity for this year.

[19Nov16]

I hope there will be no more decline after $ 17K, if prices continue to fall will make FUDS from haters more massive, even many continue to campaign to kill cryptocurrencies, and the main target is to make bitcoin continue to dump so investors lose trust in the future cryptocurrencies.

[Silberman]

I hope there will be no more decline after $ 17K, if prices continue to fall will make FUDS from haters more massive, even many continue to campaign to kill cryptocurrencies, and the main target is to make bitcoin continue to dump so investors lose trust in the future cryptocurrencies.

I do not know if the price will not go even lower than 17k but what I am sure about is that those which oppose bitcoin will use every single trick they have to try to push the narrative that bitcoin is done for and that it is better to sell it now, obviously against people like us this tactic is not very effective, but against those which are desperate and they are facing huge losses such tactics have a very high chance to succeed.

[Lubang Bawah]

The current price of bitcoin has the opportunity to drop again below $ 20k, but I hope the price will not drop below the lowest level ever before, for those who see big profits in the future then this is a good opportunity to buy more because Moments like now not necessarily happen again, so we are waiting for the price will drop, if it happens then I suggest to buy more.

[lepbagong]

The current price of bitcoin has the opportunity to drop again below $ 20k, but I hope the price will not drop below the lowest level ever before, for those who see big profits in the future then this is a good opportunity to buy more because Moments like now not necessarily happen again, so we are waiting for the price will drop, if it happens then I suggest to buy more.

I also seem to predict that a decline of more than $20K will be possible, if the current analysis is that this year is expected to be the same as what happened in 2018. So at this time the decline is still not as high as 2018 and will probably continue to fall and I I think it could be under $10K.

but actually this is a momentum to continue buying and investing, but it's better not to go for the lowest altcoin even though the profit can be bigger but the risk of missing from the market is also big.

Bitcoin investment will obviously still be profitable but it will be a fairly long investment and will have to wait until the next halving period is over in order to increase again.

[Kadal Ijo]

Many predictions that Bitcoin has the opportunity to drop again, I keep watching the price trend, the first thing I do when the price drops below $ 17k is selling a little balance, if the price continues to fall below $ 15k then I will buy more, anything can happen And this is what makes us have to have a strategy when investing bitcoin.

[yhiaali3]

In my opinion, Bitcoin’s arrival at 17,500$ may be the bottom at 80%, and 20% remains uncertain due to the presence of other influencing factors. In the coming period we may witness a price fluctuation between 20,000$ and 25,000$ for a period of time to establish a bullish bottom as I hope, of course we cannot confirm this Expectations are 100% because the market is currently very volatile due to the unstable economic and geopolitical conditions, so sudden events may occur that change all expectations. But according to my expectation, if Bitcoin manages to hold above $21,000 at the monthly close, this will have a huge positive impact and we will witness a strong rally in the market.

[peter0425]

Talking about this year? then maybe it is but if continuously looking for the lowest price ? so it maybe at least  10k will be on the road ,  as there are so many expectation either positive or negative ? yet there are bad things to come in our humble market.
so if you all are not ready to face that low? then best to deal with it now and take out your funds before you doubt all your decisions .

[boltz]

In my opinion , the end of the summer should decide the next cycle of Bitcoin price as usually it was like this on the previous bear periods so in this case 2 scenarios can happen :

1. Bitcoin will drop at the end of the summer under 15k and most likely keep dropping for the rest of the year.

2. Bitcoin will maintain the current price of 20k$ at the end of the summer and most likely will drop during the winter and beginning of the new year.

Now , you might ask yourselves, why 2 dump scenarios ? I really cannot see Bitcoin moving up in price this year and even more , I do see Bitcoin going down even in 2023. Will it recover ? I have no doubts that bitcoin will surpass at some point the new ATH that we have right now but.

[Silberman]

Talking about this year? then maybe it is but if continuously looking for the lowest price ? so it maybe at least  10k will be on the road ,  as there are so many expectation either positive or negative ? yet there are bad things to come in our humble market.
so if you all are not ready to face that low? then best to deal with it now and take out your funds before you doubt all your decisions .

At this point it is impossible to know where will be the true bottom of this bear market, many people including myself thought that it would be impossible for the price to go below the previous all time high and yet it did happen, so this opens the door for the price to reach even lower levels, now the price did not remained long below that level, but it happened which is something that should tell us that further drops are without a doubt a possibility we may be unable to escape.

[Ultegra134]

In my opinion , the end of the summer should decide the next cycle of Bitcoin price as usually it was like this on the previous bear periods so in this case 2 scenarios can happen :

1. Bitcoin will drop at the end of the summer under 15k and most likely keep dropping for the rest of the year.

2. Bitcoin will maintain the current price of 20k$ at the end of the summer and most likely will drop during the winter and beginning of the new year.

Now , you might ask yourselves, why 2 dump scenarios ? I really cannot see Bitcoin moving up in price this year and even more , I do see Bitcoin going down even in 2023. Will it recover ? I have no doubts that bitcoin will surpass at some point the new ATH that we have right now but.

I also share a similar view with you. I find it hard to believe that $17.500 was actually the bottom, and expect Bitcoin to crash even further in the near future. Likewise, I can't predict nor say when that'll happen, but I'm pretty positive that it will. Secondly, it's highly doubtful that we'll see any positive change within the next few months or even a couple of years, things aren't going to change for the better if the situation doesn't improve (high inflation, continuous war etc.).

[kotajikikox]

there are still many who speculate and choose Bitcoin down to $14k?, I don't think it's possible,
because $17.5k is a strong support for Bitcoin, so why think about $14k? I myself still hold,
and I'm sure many traders also hold bitcoin for the long term

actually it is not 17,500$ in which the strong support but it is 17,805 mate to be specific and yes this is the lowest we've got this month of June  in which the last month of 2nd quarter and if this ends will start the next chapter of the year as we will enter the 3rd quarter.
so lets assume that this is the lowest and there will never be more lowest from this.

[maydna]

there are still many who speculate and choose Bitcoin down to $14k?, I don't think it's possible,
because $17.5k is a strong support for Bitcoin, so why think about $14k? I myself still hold,
and I'm sure many traders also hold bitcoin for the long term

actually it is not 17,500$ in which the strong support but it is 17,805 mate to be specific and yes this is the lowest we've got this month of June  in which the last month of 2nd quarter and if this ends will start the next chapter of the year as we will enter the 3rd quarter.
so lets assume that this is the lowest and there will never be more lowest from this.

We don't know if the price will drop to $14k or stay at current prices and jump to higher prices. But if the price doesn't go down but instead goes up, we're missing out on buying bitcoins under $20k, and we never know when the price will hit a low again. June has almost turned into a new month, and I think many people will be curious about how the bitcoin price will be in the next month. But hopefully, next month will be a good start for bitcoin to rally and rise to higher prices.

[YOSHIE]

I've seen about the speculation game against Bitcoin's current decline, from what I've read, market speculators and crypto skeptics, it's starting to get difficult and it's a little complicated to say Bitcoin this year has decreased to $10k, $14k and so on.

To overcome the confusion in the current Bitcoin prediction game, many crypto experts are taking the middle ground for now, they are tired of guessing, the bottom line: the middle ground they take is 'experience' that has happened several years after the occurrence of ATH and before the occurrence of ATH especially Bitcoin.

Today Bitcoin dropped to the level of $ 20k, in a matter of 24 hours past $ 21k, which means that here the value of the speculation timeline is relatively slow to determine whether Bitcoin will rise again or fall again, For Bitcoin, this time I have to follow in the footsteps of Bitcoin experts in speculation and prediction based on experience and understanding that has happened.

[wxa7115]

there are still many who speculate and choose Bitcoin down to $14k?, I don't think it's possible,
because $17.5k is a strong support for Bitcoin, so why think about $14k? I myself still hold,
and I'm sure many traders also hold bitcoin for the long term

actually it is not 17,500$ in which the strong support but it is 17,805 mate to be specific and yes this is the lowest we've got this month of June  in which the last month of 2nd quarter and if this ends will start the next chapter of the year as we will enter the 3rd quarter.
so lets assume that this is the lowest and there will never be more lowest from this.

We don't know if the price will drop to $14k or stay at current prices and jump to higher prices. But if the price doesn't go down but instead goes up, we're missing out on buying bitcoins under $20k, and we never know when the price will hit a low again. June has almost turned into a new month, and I think many people will be curious about how the bitcoin price will be in the next month. But hopefully, next month will be a good start for bitcoin to rally and rise to higher prices.

While we may see a recovery during the next month, the bear market is just at its beginning stages and we still have to go through a long period in which the price will not move much and it could suffer some periodic downturns.

So even if the 17k level was the lowest we will ever see I think it is possible we will touch it several times, as I doubt the bears will let the price of bitcoin grow that much without offering some fierce resistance against it.

[bitzizzix]

there are still many who speculate and choose Bitcoin down to $14k?, I don't think it's possible,
because $17.5k is a strong support for Bitcoin, so why think about $14k? I myself still hold,
and I'm sure many traders also hold bitcoin for the long term

actually it is not 17,500$ in which the strong support but it is 17,805 mate to be specific and yes this is the lowest we've got this month of June  in which the last month of 2nd quarter and if this ends will start the next chapter of the year as we will enter the 3rd quarter.
so lets assume that this is the lowest and there will never be more lowest from this.

We don't know if the price will drop to $14k or stay at current prices and jump to higher prices. But if the price doesn't go down but instead goes up, we're missing out on buying bitcoins under $20k, and we never know when the price will hit a low again. June has almost turned into a new month, and I think many people will be curious about how the bitcoin price will be in the next month. But hopefully, next month will be a good start for bitcoin to rally and rise to higher prices.

While we may see a recovery during the next month, the bear market is just at its beginning stages and we still have to go through a long period in which the price will not move much and it could suffer some periodic downturns.

So even if the 17k level was the lowest we will ever see I think it is possible we will touch it several times, as I doubt the bears will let the price of bitcoin grow that much without offering some fierce resistance against it.

There is still a possibility of a return to the 17k price and currently the bitcoin price is struggling to surpass 20k however what we are seeing is only rising slightly above 20k and back again, and currently holding at 20k.
according to some news i know if bitcoin price can't move above 20k and back below 20k there is a possibility to go back to 17k or lower, this is an unpredictable bear market where investors are hesitant to return.

[BITCOIN4X]

4/22 of the people participating in the poll still seem pretty sure that $17.7K is a low point. While the other 15 are still thinking about other lows (myself included). Although since hitting $17.7K we've seen a bit of a price recovery, it's still pretty convincing that another low will be hit so I think the current poll results are pretty reasonable. While the poll won't be of much help, it's just an idea of ​​what traders believe in these volatile market conditions.

So far, traders' reactions to FUD have been swift. The market is on fire for a moment as panicked traders will surely try to secure their capital in fiat or stablecoins. But I still strongly believe in the potential that bitcoin has in the long term, so even if the bottom is hit, the price will rebound. Hope ATH can still happen in 2024 or 2025. I have some doubts about the rest of the year and 2023 about ATH, so 2025 is a good choice for me.

[JohnBitCo]

4/22 of the people participating in the poll still seem pretty sure that $17.7K is a low point. While the other 15 are still thinking about other lows (myself included). Although since hitting $17.7K we've seen a bit of a price recovery, it's still pretty convincing that another low will be hit so I think the current poll results are pretty reasonable. While the poll won't be of much help, it's just an idea of ​​what traders believe in these volatile market conditions.

When bitcoin hit 17.5$, it cannot go further straight down and there was always a chance of pullback. In event of a market dump, there is always a relief rally. We are seeing the price is hovering between 20-21K for last few days but unable to stay above 22-23K. This means that people are still not confident to buy bitcoin now and perhaps we may see bitcoin dumping again. If this happens, it won't be good for bitcoin and we may see more blood in the market.

[lornadane]

4/22 of the people participating in the poll still seem pretty sure that $17.7K is a low point. While the other 15 are still thinking about other lows (myself included). Although since hitting $17.7K we've seen a bit of a price recovery, it's still pretty convincing that another low will be hit so I think the current poll results are pretty reasonable. While the poll won't be of much help, it's just an idea of ​​what traders believe in these volatile market conditions.

When bitcoin hit 17.5$, it cannot go further straight down and there was always a chance of pullback. In event of a market dump, there is always a relief rally. We are seeing the price is hovering between 20-21K for last few days but unable to stay above 22-23K. This means that people are still not confident to buy bitcoin now and perhaps we may see bitcoin dumping again. If this happens, it won't be good for bitcoin and we may see more blood in the market.

It's not that we have seen blood in the market for a long time and for those who are mentally strong to see the price drop to $17, maybe they are used to it since that day bitcoin fell to $17 thousand and they saw the price of bitcoin go up to $20 thousand and I think for now  this and the next few months bitcoin will continue to play at the bottom price, which is still around $20 thousand or $21 thousand.

[bitterguy28]

4/22 of the people participating in the poll still seem pretty sure that $17.7K is a low point. While the other 15 are still thinking about other lows (myself included). Although since hitting $17.7K we've seen a bit of a price recovery, it's still pretty convincing that another low will be hit so I think the current poll results are pretty reasonable. While the poll won't be of much help, it's just an idea of ​​what traders believe in these volatile market conditions.

When bitcoin hit 17.5$, it cannot go further straight down and there was always a chance of pullback. In event of a market dump, there is always a relief rally. We are seeing the price is hovering between 20-21K for last few days but unable to stay above 22-23K. This means that people are still not confident to buy bitcoin now and perhaps we may see bitcoin dumping again. If this happens, it won't be good for bitcoin and we may see more blood in the market.

It's not that we have seen blood in the market for a long time and for those who are mentally strong to see the price drop to $17, maybe they are used to it since that day bitcoin fell to $17 thousand and they saw the price of bitcoin go up to $20 thousand and I think for now  this and the next few months bitcoin will continue to play at the bottom price, which is still around $20 thousand or $21 thousand.

we are use to it if we know and truly understand the market , we knew that  increase always followed by decrease and vice versa so admit the fact that losers will always be those weak hands that panicked when there is a situation like this and never tend to keep their hands on to hold the coins.

[Mario Yamasaki]

I hope so, if the price drops again below $ 17k then the opportunity to fall more deeply, maybe it will drop below $ 10K and so on, today the market drop is more than 3% and I hope that it will not be below $ 20k, this is which sometimes makes investors impatient and choose cut loss.

[ethereumhunter]

I hope so, if the price drops again below $ 17k then the opportunity to fall more deeply, maybe it will drop below $ 10K and so on, today the market drop is more than 3% and I hope that it will not be below $ 20k, this is which sometimes makes investors impatient and choose cut loss.

Hopefully, the price doesn't drop below $20k and stays at $20k. Hopefully with the decline in bitcoin prices this time it won't make investors panic and choose a cut loss and can survive in this situation. There is much more hope that we would like to convey that the market doesn't fall too deep because if that happens again, there may be people who will sell their bitcoins quickly because they don't want to see the value of their investment drop any further.

[Silberman]

In my opinion , the end of the summer should decide the next cycle of Bitcoin price as usually it was like this on the previous bear periods so in this case 2 scenarios can happen :

1. Bitcoin will drop at the end of the summer under 15k and most likely keep dropping for the rest of the year.

2. Bitcoin will maintain the current price of 20k$ at the end of the summer and most likely will drop during the winter and beginning of the new year.

Now , you might ask yourselves, why 2 dump scenarios ? I really cannot see Bitcoin moving up in price this year and even more , I do see Bitcoin going down even in 2023. Will it recover ? I have no doubts that bitcoin will surpass at some point the new ATH that we have right now but.

I also share a similar view with you. I find it hard to believe that $17.500 was actually the bottom, and expect Bitcoin to crash even further in the near future. Likewise, I can't predict nor say when that'll happen, but I'm pretty positive that it will. Secondly, it's highly doubtful that we'll see any positive change within the next few months or even a couple of years, things aren't going to change for the better if the situation doesn't improve (high inflation, continuous war etc.).

Taking into consideration that bitcoin went through a bull run when we were in the most difficult part of the pandemic then I think that it has the potential of growing even during an economic crisis, however for that we need the halving and since such an event it is not going to happen until 2024 then we still have at least one year or one year and a half of difficult market conditions we need to endure, so we need to exercise caution and hold our coins no matter what, as right now it does not make sense to sell our coins at all.

[tygeade]

I hope so, if the price drops again below $ 17k then the opportunity to fall more deeply, maybe it will drop below $ 10K and so on, today the market drop is more than 3% and I hope that it will not be below $ 20k, this is which sometimes makes investors impatient and choose cut loss.

Hopefully, the price doesn't drop below $20k and stays at $20k. Hopefully with the decline in bitcoin prices this time it won't make investors panic and choose a cut loss and can survive in this situation. There is much more hope that we would like to convey that the market doesn't fall too deep because if that happens again, there may be people who will sell their bitcoins quickly because they don't want to see the value of their investment drop any further.

I hope for the same thing, in fact I am 99% sure that everyone who holds bitcoin right now probably hopes for the same thing as well. However, just in case that it doesn't happen, we should also realize that the best thing to do right now would be getting ready for a big drop, not that we would want it to happen but we need to be ready if it happens.

I personally stashed some BUSD aside, not a lot but good enough to enter one more time which means that if it ever drops then I would be there to get in, and drop my average a bit more down. If it doesn't happen then I already have a good chunk of btc, which means I would be profiting from the increase anyway.

[arwin100]

so we need to exercise caution and hold our coins no matter what, as right now it does not make sense to sell our coins at all.

You end up 2 years of suffering if you didn't do cut loss if you want to trade to gain on current market condition. Waiting for next halving while your money stuck is so hard especially if we don't have enough money to spend to use upon buying more cheap bitcoins. I prepare to sell when it needed and plan for the next action because from this we will get a high chance of recover especially if we buy the top tier coins listed in the market.

[Wong Gendheng]

Today the market gets a big test, the price of Bitcoin is $ 19K and the opportunity to fall again is very large, but if you look at the previous trend then I am optimistic that the price will not drop below $ 17.5k, maybe tomorrow or the day after tomorrow will enter $ 18k but I'm sure soon soon go up again and return to $ 20k.

[barbara44]

I hope for the same thing, in fact I am 99% sure that everyone who holds bitcoin right now probably hopes for the same thing as well. However, just in case that it doesn't happen, we should also realize that the best thing to do right now would be getting ready for a big drop, not that we would want it to happen but we need to be ready if it happens.

I personally stashed some BUSD aside, not a lot but good enough to enter one more time which means that if it ever drops then I would be there to get in, and drop my average a bit more down. If it doesn't happen then I already have a good chunk of btc, which means I would be profiting from the increase anyway.

That is the better method for sure. There are tons of people out there who think that they could do as well as they imagine with the drop they could get a huge amount right away now and they would get a huge profit right away. If they could instead sit down and just think, they will realize that being ready for any case would be a better method.

I personally live all my life as a calculation of investments, what would happen if I do this, what would happen if I do that. It's like chess to me, and yes sometimes I lose, and that's normal because you can't win them all but usually if you are ready for everything then you are going to end up winning.

[fzkto]

It seems to me that there is no point in guessing where the bottom is now, because if it hasn't happened yet, there will probably be a rebound soon. It is unlikely that bitcoin will suffer the fate of the dotcoms, so I don't think the price will return to very low levels. Even if we have to see 10k, I am sure it will not be long and will be a very good opportunity to buy more bitcoin.

[wxa7115]

It seems to me that there is no point in guessing where the bottom is now, because if it hasn't happened yet, there will probably be a rebound soon. It is unlikely that bitcoin will suffer the fate of the dotcoms, so I don't think the price will return to very low levels. Even if we have to see 10k, I am sure it will not be long and will be a very good opportunity to buy more bitcoin.

I agree, bitcoin is the Google or the Amazon of the dot com bubble, they went down in value during that time but then they recovered, and if we take a look at the charts of those two companies the dot com bubble now seems like nothing but a small drop.

So the same will happen with bitcoin, however it is going to take some time before the recovery begins and since that is the case then we need to take advantage of the circumstances and buy bitcoin as long as it is available for such a low price.

[nicedreams]

Since it was not sitting at $19k, only shy a little more away from $17.5k, I say it going to break that price and set a lower price. Though, $19k seems like the resistance point for BTC right now. Keep seeing any time it hit lower than $19k, strong buying to drive the price back up. Maybe someone DCA at that point? What would happen when it finally breaks the $19k?

[Sebas.tian]

Today the market gets a big test, the price of Bitcoin is $ 19K and the opportunity to fall again is very large, but if you look at the previous trend then I am optimistic that the price will not drop below $ 17.5k, maybe tomorrow or the day after tomorrow will enter $ 18k but I'm sure soon soon go up again and return to $ 20k.

We are still in the bearish market, which many people are still finding it difficult to understand in this season. I think, the price will not drop more than $17,000 before it will hit back to $50,000 for people to start earning from their investment. I believe, this is the last time we are going to experience bear market because there are still opportunity for people to buy more of bitcoins and hold for the price to move higher before the end of this month before they can earn well from the market. Bitcoin price will definitely increase higher before the end of this year 2022, for people to stop panicking about the bear market that is causing people losses in the community.

[Tomohisa]

It seems to me that there is no point in guessing where the bottom is now, because if it hasn't happened yet, there will probably be a rebound soon. It is unlikely that bitcoin will suffer the fate of the dotcoms, so I don't think the price will return to very low levels. Even if we have to see 10k, I am sure it will not be long and will be a very good opportunity to buy more bitcoin.

I agree, bitcoin is the Google or the Amazon of the dot com bubble, they went down in value during that time but then they recovered, and if we take a look at the charts of those two companies the dot com bubble now seems like nothing but a small drop.

So the same will happen with bitcoin, however it is going to take some time before the recovery begins and since that is the case then we need to take advantage of the circumstances and buy bitcoin as long as it is available for such a low price.

Yes, I think we might see Bitcoin drops more but this isn't over for Bitcoin. If anything we've learned over the crypto market, dip and hard correction is a normal part of its cycle. If today we're bear then one or two more years, we'll back to bear. Those who see the market now, feel disappointed and rage quit are missing a big chance. 17.5K is the lowest now, maybe it will go lower than that but everyone has to agree there is a high chance it will back to higher in the next few years.

[FlamingFingers]

If you are the type that always like to long, rather than shorting, my advice to you would be that you should consider more shorting this time around because we are in the bear market, for now the whales are destroying almost every technical analysis with their manipulation, I strongly have the belief in my opinion though that bitcoin will definitely go below 17.5k, that's not the low, you guys should be watchful of the ending of this month July, its really gonna be a huge blow for those who long, new all time low for the year is coming, don't over leverage!

[Jating]

Since it was not sitting at $19k, only shy a little more away from $17.5k, I say it going to break that price and set a lower price. Though, $19k seems like the resistance point for BTC right now. Keep seeing any time it hit lower than $19k, strong buying to drive the price back up. Maybe someone DCA at that point? What would happen when it finally breaks the $19k?

DCA is one of the best strategy you can implore in this kind of situation. Regardless if we are going down below $17,500, you can make a lot of profit in the future, just go long or at least have the mentality to hold as long as you can. It might be tough for some of us, but definitely doable.

Yes, there is a possibility that it can really drop in the coming months, but it doesn't mean that bitcoin is going to die or something to that effect. Again it's going to be a mental game going to the next bull run.

[Smack That Ace]

If you are the type that always like to long, rather than shorting, my advice to you would be that you should consider more shorting this time around because we are in the bear market, for now the whales are destroying almost every technical analysis with their manipulation, I strongly have the belief in my opinion though that bitcoin will definitely go below 17.5k, that's not the low, you guys should be watchful of the ending of this month July, its really gonna be a huge blow for those who long, new all time low for the year is coming, don't over leverage!

There are those who predict bitcoin will drop below 17k or even 15k, but no one is certain about the outcome.
At this point if we are still waiting and not buying is not a good idea, for me bitcoin has dropped more than 70% in value is suitable to start buying. DCA is a method that always works in any bear market so my advice is to buy now and dca every time bitcoin price drops more.

[Sebas.tian]

I hope so, if the price drops again below $ 17k then the opportunity to fall more deeply, maybe it will drop below $ 10K and so on, today the market drop is more than 3% and I hope that it will not be below $ 20k, this is which sometimes makes investors impatient and choose cut loss.

I don't think, the price will drop below $20,000 in this season because the green light is about to remain stable through out this year 2022. I believe, is never too late to buy a huge amount of Bitcoin because the price is still low for any investors to buy and hold for the price to hit back $45,000 before you can sell to make a passive incomes. I think, many has used the opportunity to buy bitcoins when the price dropped down to $17,000 few months ago to  hold and watch when the price will increase higher in the market before they can release them for sale.

[Minecache]

It seems to me that there is no point in guessing where the bottom is now, because if it hasn't happened yet, there will probably be a rebound soon. It is unlikely that bitcoin will suffer the fate of the dotcoms, so I don't think the price will return to very low levels. Even if we have to see 10k, I am sure it will not be long and will be a very good opportunity to buy more bitcoin.

I agree, bitcoin is the Google or the Amazon of the dot com bubble, they went down in value during that time but then they recovered, and if we take a look at the charts of those two companies the dot com bubble now seems like nothing but a small drop.

So the same will happen with bitcoin, however it is going to take some time before the recovery begins and since that is the case then we need to take advantage of the circumstances and buy bitcoin as long as it is available for such a low price.

Yes, I think we might see Bitcoin drops more but this isn't over for Bitcoin. If anything we've learned over the crypto market, dip and hard correction is a normal part of its cycle. If today we're bear then one or two more years, we'll back to bear. Those who see the market now, feel disappointed and rage quit are missing a big chance. 17.5K is the lowest now, maybe it will go lower than that but everyone has to agree there is a high chance it will back to higher in the next few years.

The prediction of the bottom of bitcoin is useless, and in the worst case scenario bitcoin will probably fall to 10k during this bear season, but what is important is to not give up and not to sell, even if the price of our assets is dropping dramatically. As a general rule, bullish and bearish markets are immutable laws of the financial markets and the greater the decline in a market, the greater the increase in the market. Holding is the only key to success.

[BuNga_cute]

If you are the type that always like to long, rather than shorting, my advice to you would be that you should consider more shorting this time around because we are in the bear market, for now the whales are destroying almost every technical analysis with their manipulation, I strongly have the belief in my opinion though that bitcoin will definitely go below 17.5k, that's not the low, you guys should be watchful of the ending of this month July, its really gonna be a huge blow for those who long, new all time low for the year is coming, don't over leverage!

There are those who predict bitcoin will drop below 17k or even 15k, but no one is certain about the outcome.
At this point if we are still waiting and not buying is not a good idea, for me bitcoin has dropped more than 70% in value is suitable to start buying. DCA is a method that always works in any bear market so my advice is to buy now and dca every time bitcoin price drops more.

Everyone is free to determine the lowest price of Bitcoin, but no one is 100% sure that his prediction will be correct. Because the reality is that
the price of Bitcoin is difficult to predict, and Bitcoin often moves not according to our predictions. Therefore we should not delay buying Bitcoin
just because Bitcoin has not reached the lowest price target according to our predictions. If that's the case, we will definitely regret missing
the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a low price, if the Bitcoin price is suddenly bullish.

Because if we understand that our predictions are not necessarily correct, then we have to buy Bitcoin from now on, which is where the actual
Bitcoin price is now very low. Because Bitcoin is down by 70% like you said, although there is actually a possibility that the price of Bitcoin will
still fall even lower, therefore the best solution is to buy Bitcoin gradually. This means that it is better for us to buy Bitcoin every time the price
drops, rather than buying Bitcoin at a certain price with all the capital we have.
 

[boltz]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

[dragonvslinux]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

Very true, for many waiting for a Weekly close above 200WMA will be the better long-term confirmation, whether this be at $23K or $25K becomes irrelevant. While price did get rejected by $22.5K in the short-term, the bullish momentum remains in tact and there are definitely buyers continuing to push prices higher right now. Temporary rejection between the 200WMA and 50 Month MA was to be expected.

[buwaytress]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

Very true, for many waiting for a Weekly close above 200WMA will be the better long-term confirmation, whether this be at $23K or $25K becomes irrelevant. While price did get rejected by $22.5K in the short-term, the bullish momentum remains in tact and there are definitely buyers continuing to push prices higher right now. Temporary rejection between the 200WMA and 50 Month MA was to be expected.

Saw your RSI chart, definitely looks promising if Bitcoin does leave oversold area but it does need to close AND conclude consecutive weekly closes above that 200wma for confidence to pour back in. The volume, which is usually what helps me see the light, is actually the more encouraging point. However, there are enough warnings for a fakeout as well... Not least the exchange inflows preceding.

[dragonvslinux]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

Very true, for many waiting for a Weekly close above 200WMA will be the better long-term confirmation, whether this be at $23K or $25K becomes irrelevant. While price did get rejected by $22.5K in the short-term, the bullish momentum remains in tact and there are definitely buyers continuing to push prices higher right now. Temporary rejection between the 200WMA and 50 Month MA was to be expected.

Saw your RSI chart, definitely looks promising if Bitcoin does leave oversold area but it does need to close AND conclude consecutive weekly closes above that 200wma for confidence to pour back in. The volume, which is usually what helps me see the light, is actually the more encouraging point. However, there are enough warnings for a fakeout as well... Not least the exchange inflows preceding.

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

[wxa7115]

The prediction of the bottom of bitcoin is useless, and in the worst case scenario bitcoin will probably fall to 10k during this bear season, but what is important is to not give up and not to sell, even if the price of our assets is dropping dramatically. As a general rule, bullish and bearish markets are immutable laws of the financial markets and the greater the decline in a market, the greater the increase in the market. Holding is the only key to success.

Without a doubt the most important skill right now we could have is our ability to hold our coins no matter what, people always get mad when the price of the assets in which they invested begins to go down, but this is natural as it is impossible for any asset to always keep going up in value.

However we must recognize that holding can be extremely difficult for those which bought close the new all time high as right now they are experimenting huge losses, and not only that I doubt they had any desire to hold their coins for so long and they were only interested in getting some quick profits, and as such the chances they will be able to hold until the next bull run are quite low.

[buwaytress]

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

Can't help but feel all bets are off with the next macro event (Fed rate hike) in about 2 weeks though but if that situation does happen before then, should be firmer ground since it'd mean the buying is still able to nullify the bears pricing in for the rate hike. Either way, pleased to see determination from the bulls before Monday.

[STT]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective.   Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term.   After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength.   I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

[GeorgeJohn]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective.   Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term.   After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength.   I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

  we are not supposed to be cashing out due to speculation of cryptocurrency. I know that people who is inquisitive of disvalue of bitcoin are the ones that will be desperate of withdrawing attention for more investment. The fraction of bitcoin values is dependable due to what you observe and your notification about cryptocurrency, if we follow speculation we can end up by making a huge mistake.

[dragonvslinux]

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

Can't help but feel all bets are off with the next macro event (Fed rate hike) in about 2 weeks though but if that situation does happen before then, should be firmer ground since it'd mean the buying is still able to nullify the bears pricing in for the rate hike. Either way, pleased to see determination from the bulls before Monday.

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

For now in the short-term, price seems relatively strong despite impending bad news on it's way. That much is a positive sign for now.

[goaldigger]

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective.   Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term.   After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength.   I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

We are still trying to break that resistance level, its very critical for Bitcoin because we see another failed attempt, most probably many will sell again since the next scenario could be Bitcoin hitting the support level again. We’ve seen this before, a strong comeback will usually happen after another drop, we might still see red candles but hopefully the $17k mark was already the bottom price for this bear market.

[Mpamaegbu]

I do not think bitcoin price can decrease down to $12000, people are predicting $14000 or $15000 to be the lowest price or that means bitcoin becomes more volatile after this halving than 2016 halving to 2020 before the last halving.

The market is bullish presently as bitcoin increased back to $20000 and moving towards $21000, but if the bear market continues, I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

Do you've any TA handle on this to strengthen your position or it's just another guts feeling? I asked this because I've gone through comments online of market analysts who put it around $12,500. While I admit that we are in a highly speculative market where no one truly can say what direction price is headed, I've to point out that some of these analysts predicted that Bitcoin would crash this heavy when it was still on high above $50k. So, we can't say it will never get to that low point. Recently, before this surge, price was around $18k then, one of those analysts mentioned that Bitcoin would get to $23k but that it would be a bull trap before it went down again. I think that's where we currently are at.

[buwaytress]

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

For now in the short-term, price seems relatively strong despite impending bad news on it's way. That much is a positive sign for now.

Yup, and we saw that the last rate hike too, all that nosediving happened an entire week before the actual announcement, and as soon as the 0.75 rate was confirmed, we actually saw a recovery. Not sure now how it'll all look like as we look headed down to test 20k again before US Monday arrives, but I suspect we'll see a repeat recovery IF rate is the same. Job numbers actually was surprisingly good so if the rate hike is a little lower than expected then we could very well see a strong surge out of oversold area.

[Oshosondy]

Do you've any TA handle on this to strengthen your position or it's just another guts feeling? I asked this because I've gone through comments online of market analysts who put it around $12,500. While I admit that we are in a highly speculative market where no one truly can say what direction price is headed, I've to point out that some of these analysts predicted that Bitcoin would crash this heavy when it was still on high above $50k. So, we can't say it will never get to that low point. Recently, before this surge, price was around $18k then, one of those analysts mentioned that Bitcoin would get to $23k but that it would be a bull trap before it went down again. I think that's where we currently are at.

TA for bitcoin in long term prediction? Even if I have it and most professional, that does not mean it will be correct, even I can not believe in what analysts will say about the price of bitcoin in long term, some of them even said bitcoin will hit $100000, some can overestimate, some can underestimate. Bitcoin may fall below $12000, it may not fall below, but just saying that if bitcoin falled below $14000, the volatile it has in 2016 to 2020 will be lower than the present 4 years volatility, the reason I said it can not fall below $14000. It is possible bitcoin price fall below but my sentiment is around $14000 to $15000.

[Mpamaegbu]

Oshosondy; yes, quite alright we both know this is a speculative market and no one should be taken to have an accurate prediction until it goes into hindsight and then we reconcile what was said and what actually happened. The reason I asked you that question was to find out if you took your assessment based on TA because you showed an element of certainty as captured in your few words in the quoted part below 👇

I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

[Oshosondy]

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

As well for me, but in short term. The short term analyses and the daily prices of bitcoin that I often check can help me to speculate what the price of bitcoin can be in the a year or 2 years to come. What I am just saying is that I do not use indicator to hold, just to trade. To hold, I prefer to use Glassnode information like exchange inflow and outflow, bitcoin halving and other related things about long term speculation. Indicators are essential to traders, not holders, that is what I am saying.

[tygeade]

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

As well for me, but in short term. The short term analyses and the daily prices of bitcoin that I often check can help me to speculate what the price of bitcoin can be in the a year or 2 years to come. What I am just saying is that I do not use indicator to hold, just to trade. To hold, I prefer to use Glassnode information like exchange inflow and outflow, bitcoin halving and other related things about long term speculation. Indicators are essential to traders, not holders, that is what I am saying.

The sailor and compass is a great analogy. If you have a compass, it shows you where the north is, but it doesn't show if you if there is an island between where you need to sail and your ship. It means that if you go straight north, where you need to go, then you will hit another island, which means you will need to make so all adjustments to avoid hitting it. That is how the compass mindset works.

Definitely the TA will help you see the direction you should take, but there will always be adjustments that you will need to make in order to avoid crashing down. It won't be easy, it will take some time to get there, but it will always be possible and I believe you will make a good profit if you get used to it.

[buwaytress]

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

Know I already responded to this but seems like the pricing in for US CPI fell short of actual results. 9.1% was the official figure an hour ago, highest in 40 years, and most of the market priced in 8.8% so of course BTC lost quite a bit immediately. A bit frustrating to take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, and the key is that they actually seemed to have fudged the figures as much as possible and still ended up with a higher than expected rate.

Already seeing the half rate interest hike due in 2 weeks now upgraded to 0.75... so expect more of that buying the rumour to happen now. And if the Fed gets even more aggressive (CPI will certainly tempt them) we have to strap in for worse.

Seem to keep reaching bottom but the actual news just keeps getting worse. Fully expecting to test 18k again. Of course, all this is short term. Just wish it wasn't so painful =)

[dragonvslinux]

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

Know I already responded to this but seems like the pricing in for US CPI fell short of actual results. 9.1% was the official figure an hour ago, highest in 40 years, and most of the market priced in 8.8% so of course BTC lost quite a bit immediately. A bit frustrating to take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, and the key is that they actually seemed to have fudged the figures as much as possible and still ended up with a higher than expected rate.

Despite dropping -6% within an hour (as you put it, CPI wasn't fully priced in it seems), we're now only -2% down on the 4hr and holding $19K level support for now, so the news doesn't look that bad to me:



Obviously in the mid to long-term it doesn't look good what so ever, we're now establishing a bear flag targeting much lower levels if it confirms with a breakdown below support, but considering how this is supposed to be very bearish for Bitcoin, currently it looks mildly bearish as support levels are holding (to reiterate, for now at least). -2% within 4 hours isn't that bad for Bitcoin given the bear trend imo.

Already seeing the half rate interest hike due in 2 weeks now upgraded to 0.75... so expect more of that buying the rumour to happen now. And if the Fed gets even more aggressive (CPI will certainly tempt them) we have to strap in for worse.

This seems like it will be the more relevant news, and what many are waiting for (as opposed to CPI numbers). Agree strapping in may very well be required in the very near future.

Seem to keep reaching bottom but the actual news just keeps getting worse. Fully expecting to test 18k again. Of course, all this is short term. Just wish it wasn't so painful =)

To me, in the short-term, still looks like we can re-test $21K, even $23K, before eventually breaking down much lower. But alas we'll see.

(Since typing we are now only -1% on the 4hr)

[wxa7115]

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

This is a nice way to put it, people get obsessed about the idea of the perfect system in which they never lose a single trade and they are always earning money, TA is just a guiding tool and nothing more, and just as in the example you give sailors used very rudimentary tools back in the day to find their way over a journey that lasted for months and they still got to their desired destination.

And TA is the same, maybe we will have some false signals along the way but if you follow your strategy close enough then it is just a matter of time until you will be able to make profits even during this bear market.

[Mpamaegbu]

~

but if you follow your strategy close enough then it is just a matter of time until you will be able to make profits even during this bear market.

That's true. It's the reason traders are advised to stick to a system that works for them. Don't jump from one trading system to another. Find a system and then hone it and get something close to a perfect handling of it, bearing in mind that there's no holy grail anywhere when it comes to trading. Stick to that system. Consistency breeds confidence and that should be a watch word for every trader. By being consistent, traders can easily have a handle on their trades.

[BitcoinPanther]

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

TA is very important in trading.  Just as you stated, just like a compass to sailors, TA directs traders and pinpoint entry point and exit point in trading.  It is really essential knowledge to acquire.  It is best to partner with fundamental analysis since there is no perfect system but complementing methods do exist.


About the Bitcoin market, some analyst states that it is highly unlikely for BTC to fall below $17.5k  as long as the resistance @ $19k is not broken, but if it did, we have a possibility of witnessing a $14k below BTC.

[STT]

Very good action today to indicate positive BTC price progression.  I would hope at least we continue with positive trajectory for this weekend and build some leeway for any sell occurring next week.
   There was some hesitation starting more frequently at 20.5k and around the MA, note the pins and sideways drift but resolving above the week and monthly moving averages is worth taking as a positive vs the quite severe swerve off course of 17.5k    It helps that Dollar weakened today but also thats why I expect further tests in future before the OP idea 'the low' is answered.



Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.

[dragonvslinux]

Very good action today to indicate positive BTC price progression.  I would hope at least we continue with positive trajectory for this weekend and build some leeway for any sell occurring next week.
   There was some hesitation starting more frequently at 20.5k and around the MA, note the pins and sideways drift but resolving above the week and monthly moving averages is worth taking as a positive vs the quite severe swerve off course of 17.5k    It helps that Dollar weakened today but also thats why I expect further tests in future before the OP idea 'the low' is answered.

I agree price is looking positive in the short-term. What happens around $23K (top of the bear flag channel) if it get's there again will be another story I think. This would be the second proper re-test of the 200WMA as well as the 50 Day MA that is now around this price. Last time price saw the 50 Day MA was during the rejection in April around $42.5K, so this will be a key barrier to break for longer-term upwards price movements.

So far price is following the bear flag fractal that I drew a couple of days ago, while naturally facing some short-term rejection from the mid-level of the bear channel:

Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.

I think a bit sideways would be ok, but too much would see price lose momentum and return to support levels imo. Failure to break $21K would only confirm a lower high and confirm weakness.

[Mpamaegbu]

The first thing I do while looking at chart(s) is to check the timeframe. Once I don't see that, I can't fully grasp what is been said there. The easiest way to cheat with a chart and make it look like price has long gone far is to present a  price action (PA) on 1m/5ms or 15ms TF. It makes it look like there's a nice ride, especially if PA is headed in a particular direction. Anything short of 1hr TF for entry and 4hrs/Daily for guage isn't for me. OP, what's your TF in that chart. Would you mind telling? Again, what MA setting is in orange colour that the candle just crossed?

[dragonvslinux]

The first thing I do while looking at chart(s) is to check the timeframe. Once I don't see that, I can't fully grasp what is been said there. The easiest way to cheat with a chart and make it look like price has long gone far is to present a  price action (PA) on 1m/5ms or 15ms TF. It makes it look like there's a nice ride, especially if PA is headed in a particular direction. Anything short of 1hr TF for entry and 4hrs/Daily for guage isn't for me. OP, what's your TF in that chart. Would you mind telling? Again, what MA setting is in orange colour that the candle just crossed?

I agree I'm not a fan of charts that don't present the time-frame, or at minimum have a time-frame at the X-axis. Anyway, I'm fairly certain it's the 4hr chart as the MAs that are crossing are the 50 & 200.

So the orange line is the 200 MA and the other (teal?) is the 50 MA. However it's worth noting that since this cross-over, both the MAs are now trending downwards (bearish) while previously the 50 MA was flat (neutral) even if price remains above them (bullish) and they have bull-crossed as it were. Realistically the 50 MA would need to flatten or trend higher for confirmation of a short-term trend change:



By the looks of it they will easily cross back over (bear-cross) based on their current trajectories if price falls much below them, which is what happened in early June.

[Mpamaegbu]

Anyway, I'm fairly certain it's the 4hr chart as the MAs that are crossing are the 50 & 200...

However it's worth noting that since this cross-over, both the MAs are now trending downwards (bearish) while previously the 50 MA was flat (neutral) even if price remains above them (bullish) and they have bull-crossed as it were. Realistically the 50 MA would need to flatten or trend higher for confirmation of a short-term trend change:

Thanks for your time and analysis. It shows how deep you're into trading. I love that. The crossover and recross of the MAs is the major reason I don't use them as entry or exit signals. They always repaint. I don't rely on indicators that repaint or lag behind. If anything I set the MAs I'm using to a higher figure for judging trend change, but not for taking trades. Relying on MAs to take trades leaves you in confusion because it can seamlessly recross and make your initial position invalid. Of course, I believe there are traders who are profitable using it but certainly not for me.

[STT]

I wouldnt post a giant chart every time because you all have the BTC chart available, we arent discussing a hundred different tokens just this one price so I expect most people to have checked the chart that day probably multiple times.   Shape and characterizing the movement is all thats needed though on Sundays I think full chart and weekly bars is best used

[dragonvslinux]

I wouldnt post a giant chart every time because you all have the BTC chart available, we arent discussing a hundred different tokens just this one price so I expect most people to have checked the chart that day probably multiple times.   Shape and characterizing the movement is all thats needed though on Sundays I think full chart and weekly bars is best used

I think you've assumed wrong here, that people check the price multiple times, but more relevantly that they are using moving averages, especially the same moving averages as you are. Someone was simply wanting to know what the lines meant, so I thought best to explain it to them with a full sized chart so they could see for themselves. If you don't appreciate it, then simply scroll past it...

[BobK71]

Nothing is impossible. Because BTC went to $17.5k during the bearish period and has come back from there to stay between $20k and $21k. Investors are yet to regain full confidence, but if there is no major negative news in crypto, this could be the highest dip at in this session.
Yesterday's and today's current positions provide somewhat positive guidance. I think buying this position from $17.5k will not have any major negative impact. Since we take it as long term investment.

[savetheFORUM]

Nothing is impossible. Because BTC went to $17.5k during the bearish period and has come back from there to stay between $20k and $21k. Investors are yet to regain full confidence, but if there is no major negative news in crypto, this could be the highest dip at in this session.
Yesterday's and today's current positions provide somewhat positive guidance. I think buying this position from $17.5k will not have any major negative impact. Since we take it as long term investment.

That's normal that the price comes back to a higher level because there are also people that buys when they saw the price are dumping. Price getting stable on the current level would mean that many are not yet interested to sell because they think the value is too low but it wasn't bad for someone that wants to make a little profit and use the money for something more important.

I think the price can still dip even if there's no negative news, the same when there's an increase, it can also happen without a positive news but in the event the price falls to 17.5k, it will then be featured in the news and many will consider this as a negative news.

[Vaskiy]

It looks like $23k to $26k to be the next resistance levels. Users who have been holding can close the position if it is possible to book profit around the range. Because there is more market dump dates and the same could assure with good buying opportunity. For now $17.5k is the low bottom and further we don't know how far this is going to make impact over the market.

[rodskee]

Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.

sounds that you are already correct in this market time because the price is now increasing , from 19k now we are at 22k which means there seems to be an increase coming more these days.

It looks like $23k to $26k to be the next resistance levels. Users who have been holding can close the position if it is possible to book profit around the range. Because there is more market dump dates and the same could assure with good buying opportunity. For now $17.5k is the low bottom and further we don't know how far this is going to make impact over the market.

but we still  have not reaching 23k , stagnant at 22k yet.

but hopefully in sooner time we will break this and again touching at least 30k?

[dragonvslinux]

A month ago I claimed that if the 200 WMA is reclaimed, then I think $17.5K was the low. Currently waiting for a weekly close (>$22.7K), but looking good so far.

if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

Since this topic the Pi Cycle top/bottom indicator has signalled a bottom, Bitcoin is leaving oversold conditions on Weekly RSI as well as back above realized price (capitulation has ended for now).

For those waiting for confirmation of a bottom (instead of buying the dip) then there are also enough signs already imo, even if waiting for a small pull-back remains sensible.


Edit: Poll results screenshot 24/07:



Bears still waiting for a breakdown I see.

[fzkto]

Today bitcoin has reached 24k, which is about 40% of the expected bottom at 17.5k. Unless a reversal back to the bottom happens at these levels, we can say that 17.5k was indeed the bottom. But I wouldn't be too quick to buy now, it's too easy to buy for all those wishing to buy at those prices. There is a chance that the bottom will be tested again.

[Wilhelm]

Today bitcoin has reached 24k, which is about 40% of the expected bottom at 17.5k. Unless a reversal back to the bottom happens at these levels, we can say that 17.5k was indeed the bottom. But I wouldn't be too quick to buy now, it's too easy to buy for all those wishing to buy at those prices. There is a chance that the bottom will be tested again.

Yes wait for 69k before buying  

Even if it would dip, btc is still considered "cheap"

[Bitcoin2009]

The market is always unpredictable, the unique thing we can see is that when the price drops below $20k there will be a large transaction volume, even many people are waiting for the moment to be able to buy cheaply, and I hope the $17k price will not happen again.

[STT]

Still above the weekly average, see how we fair with this tomorrow and this week.   We do have pressure between this shorter term momentum & the 50 day average which is declining and will continue to do so.

However just this moment its looking bullish, weekly bar closes Sunday of course which gives a wider view.   For me to be especially bullish I need not just mild action but a proper rise upwards above and beyond  the 200 week average is what I want to see.   Apparently bond markets are moving slightly to ease the dollar strength so it remains to be seen if crypto benefits from slightly more optimism etc.

Try 22347 as a mark just because of the 50 day average.  However I really expect BTC to respect most boundaries like a monster truck observes curbs

[Frengki_cisco]

My current outlook is that price will either rebound from the $17.5K lows towards $30K, or otherwise if this support is broken then price will capitulate further to $12K.

In the last few months, I often read speculation about Bitcoin later this year and entering 2023, some speculation said Bitcoin's lowest could touch 15-10k, that's the lowest prediction I have seen.

I believe speculation will occur in the next few months at the 10k point, I believe it is the lowest nominal traded at the end of this year, the comparison two years ago had touched $6000, this time it is likely to be $10k.

[Yaunfitda]

Today bitcoin has reached 24k, which is about 40% of the expected bottom at 17.5k. Unless a reversal back to the bottom happens at these levels, we can say that 17.5k was indeed the bottom. But I wouldn't be too quick to buy now, it's too easy to buy for all those wishing to buy at those prices. There is a chance that the bottom will be tested again.

Still too early though so say that bottom is in? I mean bear market is going to take even next year. And if we take the same pattern at the last bear market, the price still goes down hard  prior to the halving year. I'm not a perma bear, I'm just trying to be realist and say that I'm still considering the $17,500 to be not the all time high, without looking at the charts, just basing on past history price.

[yohananaomi]

it is difficult to predict accurately in a situation that is not good for bitcoin, I chose ;



even though it is possible that it will drop below my prediction, of course looking at the past situation which will repeat again and I see that it has fallen at $ 5K maybe now it will be 2x as much.

if it drops below $10K, it will obviously make it difficult for bitcoin to quickly increase which will result in the possibility that next year will also move the same as this year and continue to stay in the $30K range before it can rise again well into the halving year.

[OgNasty]

Even though we’ve seen quite a bit of an increase in price and less market fear, I’m not willing to say the bottom is behind us for this cycle. Especially with the mtgox coins still to be distributed. I am however fairly certain we’ll know for sure if that was the bottom by Halloween. I think come The Day of the Dead (El Dia De Los Muertos) we’ll have already seen the market bottom for this cycle.

[btc78]

Actually I don't know and I don't care? as I am for Holding and not for anything more .

Yeah I am selling for sometime but for this moment ? i completely hold my funds and not to compete in this crazy market .

but even if the lowest is 17k or 10? or even 5k yet i care nothing because I am ready to keep my funds for another couple of years I think ..

[Dave1]

Even though we’ve seen quite a bit of an increase in price and less market fear, I’m not willing to say the bottom is behind us for this cycle. Especially with the mtgox coins still to be distributed. I am however fairly certain we’ll know for sure if that was the bottom by Halloween. I think come The Day of the Dead (El Dia De Los Muertos) we’ll have already seen the market bottom for this cycle.

Yeah, that coins though, I mean when it is distributed, I'm not seeing those people not selling it for a price. They have been waiting for so long that the moment they got it, boom, sold-off.

So we need to monitor the news about when the distribution is, observed the market. If there is no effect then good. But if the market falters then we should take advantage of the situation and buy again.