How do we spot the crypto bottom?

[Houdini76]

Hi

Been wondering how to tell we have reached the crypto bottom? have we already bottomed out(I personally don't think so im not sure). If we look at the current world financial system - it looks dire. surely this will all have a impact on people investing in crypto and when funds are short, may even withdraw their investment.

Personally, because of the state of the financial system, I cannot see how crypto can become bullish as long as the world economy doesn't show signs of a recovery . I could be wrong though ?

what are your thoughts on this? Is a further crash on the horizon?

[TheNineClub]

No one can predict these kinds of outcomes. At best we can make an educated guess, but even then, the whole economic system is to complex to pinpoint it with any certainty. We can always look at previous trends, what has been anounced in regards of crypto developement, what are general economic trends in the whole world and then maybe get in the ballpark.

[FlamingFingers]

No one can truly know the bottom of crypto, that's is why lots of decent trader do DCA, dollar cost averaging. Its one of the best ways in buying the dip after you have done a thorough technical and fundamental analysis, I could remember when lots of people where predicting 20k to be bottom of bitcoin during this dip, it went to 17k if you dca then you are in profit, no one can know the dip it ain't possible

[coolcoinz]

what are your thoughts on this? Is a further crash on the horizon?

Nobody will tell you that because many things depend on people's decisions. If the US government continues to destroy the stock market, we will have a crash and a recession.
Does it mean bitcoin will crash? Again, we don't  know because bitcoin is already below 200 WMA and it already was below the level of miner capitulation. It doesn't have much crashing space left at over -70% from the top.

My opinion is that if stocks keep crashing bitcoin will be crashing less because it already did a hard correction. It became more oversold than it ever was. People were anticipating the worst and whoever was considering selling with a loss did it 2 weeks ago. Eventually people will start to move their money from other assets into cheap bitcoin that at 20k USD has a much greater potential to go up than most stocks.

[TimeTeller]

No one can truly know the bottom of crypto, that's is why lots of decent trader do DCA, dollar cost averaging. Its one of the best ways in buying the dip after you have done a thorough technical and fundamental analysis, I could remember when lots of people where predicting 20k to be bottom of bitcoin during this dip, it went to 17k if you dca then you are in profit, no one can know the dip it ain't possible

This market is really unpredictable so up until now, no one can truly be confident in telling the future of the market.
We are all depending on what updates and news we will be reading next.
It is your own strategies on how to optimize your possible profits in this market.
Just like when btc went down to 17k range, if you bought it at that level, you are in profit today.
But for someone to know when we will exactly hit the rock bottom, no one can do that up until today.

[edgycorner]

I agree with you OP
Crypto is coupled with the global economy. And if the global economy continues to deteriorate, so will crypto. Unless, somehow everyone pulls their money from the stock market, to invest in crypto. Which is very unlikely.

As long as everyone stays positive, the market will too. In trading terms, most of the world has to go "long" on the future  
Hopefully most people will see the current market as an "opportunity" instead of shorting it.

It's impossible to be certain tho.

[STT]

You could consider it as a reverse of action at the top, which was a repeated similar double peak appearance.    So it does seem likely we repeat an attempt downwards before either trend would resolve doubts.   Also for any movement I also expect factors such as a lower Dollar index, that is most troubling on going reason.   There are larger events in macro economics, its not especially just BTC that moved price.   YEN has questions over it, europe must answer doubts on large amounts of energy it relied on from hostile countries.

[dansus021]

like everybody said that no one known unless you are super rich whales who can move the green stick candle with your money. 

nowadays market become more unpredictable and bitcoin according some article and this https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-stock-market-correlation-happens-make-money/

that bitcoin now have correlation with stock market, then yes if the outside world still in unstable might bitcoin become unstable too

[BlackBaron]

what are your thoughts on this? Is a further crash on the horizon?

It's a little hard to judge and see the crypto market at its lowest point, basic.

I'm talking about the experience, from the experience of the past few years, the market plummeted at its lows, usually those lows lasted 6-8 months, all types of coins are not moving, but at the moment I don't see that, there is still some movement of a few percent up, I believe it hasn't bottomed out yet, maybe it will continue.

[adaseb]

I’ve been here since 2014 and every bottom, except 2020 had one thing in common. It basically traded sideways for months and people basically gave up due to boredom and sold… and that was the bottom.

Most likely it will be a similar situation here. Especially given that we are in the summer months and stock markets are also starting to get little volatility. Most likely nothing exciting will happen until the Q3 and maybe crypto will bottom then.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

We cannot determine the exact bottom figure but we can be sure that we are close to it. Either it was the recent $17k, or if we will have a subsequent dip, it can't go much lower than $17k as there are too many people who find the price cheap at those levels and buy.

Over time if you follow the markets you learn to identify when the top and the bottom are near: when people talk about the world ending and going to 0, the bottom is near. On the other hand, when people keep opening threads asking you what will be the record of the ath. $150k, $250k, $400k etc. and how fast we will get there, it is close to the top.

[maydna]

No one can know when the bottom of the price will be reached but we can predict how far the price will bottom. Even though we can't predict accurately, we can find a point where we can enter the market by buying at that price and if the price still drops from our predicted price, it won't be a problem. But if you trade and analyze often, your feeling will be able to guess the basic price that can be achieved by bitcoin and it will be close to the market price. But it also takes luck for us to get the base price of bitcoin.

[Husires]

Nobody can tell you, but since the market depends on supply and demand, keeping track of the things that affect supply and demand will enable you to predict the price.

Here are some general examples:

• At the end of the month, many futures contract positions are liquidated and therefore you can expect a decrease.
  
• Margin call, which occurs when an asset goes down and the platform is forced to mine some cryptocurrency.
• Political decisions, especially those related to liquidity.
• Market condition: Fear, panic and doubt.

All of these factors make you predict the direction of the market and by knowing the points of support and resistance, you can determine where the depth of the bottom may be.

[ethereumhunter]

It is difficult to spot the crypto bottom as the price can go to any lower price. For bitcoin price, maybe $17k is the bottom price for a while because we do not know if the price can get down again or bounce to the high price. But if you want to invest in bitcoin, the price now is still worth it to buy bitcoin. Even if the price goes down again like before, that will be your chance to buy bitcoin at a lower price. We will not know where the price will move next month so you should use the chance to buy bitcoin.

[OgNasty]

I've always found it pretty easy to spot the bottom in the past.  There's usually an unmistakable moment where capitulation is obvious and clear.  This cycle was a little different because the nature of the crash wasn't retail panic, and instead was orchestrated by big players squeezing out overleveraged entities.  So we had a capitulation moment, but it was sloppier than what we've typically seen in the past.  While I would have preferred a massive volume spike and huge drop instead of the slow bouncing around for a couple days, it does seem like FTX has stepped in to be the lender of last resort and put a bottom on the market to limit further selling.  While the ultimate bottom may be lower than what we saw recently, the downside vs upside has me thinking that now isn't a bad time to be buying and even if we fall from here, you're looking at a possible 50% loss in a near worst case scenario, while the best case scenario which has been playing out for years has upside closer to x10.  Worth it in my opinion.

[Vaskiy]

It is really difficult to spot the bottom. As per my understanding it is possible to understand whether the market has turned bearish or bullish with continued price movement happening for certain time period. When the market is on the bearish trend we need to just focus on the price move and set a bottom target according to our mind and go for a buying. This is how I fix the bottom, sometimes it coincides with the perfect bottom with little variation over/under.

[bittraffic]

Bitcoin is just like the currency base USD.  Its the only that you will look at to see if crypto had bottomed. You only need the indicators that could tell we are in the bottom such as RSI and others.

It is however just as guessing when you don't look at the world economy which is what they have been saying above. If the world is unstable just as what it is right now, there could be a rough road ahead of us and this crash may not be over.

[GeorgeJohn]

No one can truly know the bottom of crypto, that's is why lots of decent trader do DCA, dollar cost averaging. Its one of the best ways in buying the dip after you have done a thorough technical and fundamental analysis, I could remember when lots of people where predicting 20k to be bottom of bitcoin during this dip, it went to 17k if you dca then you are in profit, no one can know the dip it ain't possible

from my observation, cryptocurrency is unpredictable and it's a currency that is not controllable by any one, those predictions people made its on their assumptions of cryptocurrency price stability, some of them analysis is not accurate. The dip season can continue it's decrement beyond our prediction expectations so therefore we should not depend on any analysis of cryptocurrency from anybody, after researching or getting your facts of market analysis, you have it as personal hypothesis.

[suzanne5223]

It is hard to spot the bottom price of the Bitcoin market especially when the market is in high bearish stage but history shows that the Bitcoin market always downtrends at least 70% to 90% of its ATH price and the last bottom price of Bitcoin is always known during the Q4 of the bearish season year.

from my observation, cryptocurrency is unpredictable

Cryptocurrency is predictable and it's being volatile in nature making it a subject to prediction but getting the right market price through prediction is impossible at a ratio of 100

[EdenHazard]

It is hard to spot the bottom price of the Bitcoin market especially when the market is in high bearish stage but history shows that the Bitcoin market always downtrends at least 70% to 90% of its ATH price and the last bottom price of Bitcoin is always known during the Q4 of the bearish season year.

from my observation, cryptocurrency is unpredictable

Cryptocurrency is predictable and it's being volatile in nature making it a subject to prediction but getting the right market price through prediction is impossible at a ratio of 100

Truee.

I tend to predict the possibility bitcoin price fall to $6k is there in very near future , actually could be around $10k -$15k ... just like the other day where bitcoin price fall down to $3k from the $20k all time high.
Where the world economic system shaking ... cryptocurrency could always become a safe haven! We'll see this time.