Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price in August?

[Taskford]

If they really release it to its old users provably those will give some effect because for sure those old guys would provably sell their stuck coins for long years and this could create fud which can make the price of bitcoin move. But this is for short term only since for sure bitcoin will bounce and many investors will catch the knife at possible bottom price of it.

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[STT]

Liquidity is a short term trading effect as the market has not presumed the coins are not available just not traded actively, it doesnt bring us down especially is my guess.   They are likely to layer payments not a dump truck release of all at once just into one exchange, not all holder would immediately sell maybe if it was at the year start or surprise news of the war but not now imo.

[fortuner]

If they really release it to its old users provably those will give some effect because for sure those old guys would provably sell their stuck coins for long years and this could create fud which can make the price of bitcoin move. But this is for short term only since for sure bitcoin will bounce and many investors will catch the knife at possible bottom price of it.

Even though in the short term, we can take our profits back when the bitcoin price starts to move again.
Indeed that is our hope at this time, seeing the price of bitcoin soar and taking a position for us to buy and sell what we have maintained so far.

[savetheFORUM]

137,000 BTC worth roughly $2.8 billion will soon be released into the market as funds lost to the Mt. Gox hack of 2011 and subsequent loss of 850,000 BTC worth around $17.8 billion at today’s price. In 2014 Mt. Gox reported that it had found 200,000 BTC, but those coins have been locked in litigation until now.

https://news.coincu.com/108363-mt-gox-to-disburse-150k-btc-is-approaching/

Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price? Or is it another FUD in attempt to dump the price of BTC?

No, I don't think this is a kind of fud but this was a legit news. It's only up to the person that hears this if they think this can bring negative effect on the price of btc but for me the impact will be hardly seen because it is said that many people already got their payment in advance and those are left or those who prefer to get paid in bitcoins, are probably hodlers. I only wonder why the payout for those who want an advance payment is only $600 up to $1.3k ?

I think that was small compared to the bitcoin that most of them lost way back in 2011. Ah, maybe it was one of the conditions for having your payment earlier than the expected date.

[fzkto]

Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours. If bitcoins do get distributed to previous owners, they will not necessarily sell them. Especially I don't think such amount will be distributed in several transactions. Most likely this process will be done in parts and will last for a long time. Therefore it seems to me that all this will not affect the market much.

[OgNasty]

Common sense would indicate that when the mtgox coins are distributed we would see a very large selloff.  This is just the reality.  Many people have had their coins trapped for a long time and will need to sell them immediately because life happens.  The thing is that the big investors know this is coming, and they may in fact have been causing this crash in order to scoop those coins for cheap.  Good investors always tend to be a step ahead, so as the Bitcoin market has matured we've seen more frontrunning, the way the market sold off when it should have been bubbling in the first dip from the 60s.  For now, all we can do is wait and see how things play out.  I do feel the bottom will be coming in the next couple of months if it isn't already behind us.  The next bull market is accepting passengers...

[yhiaali3]

137,000 BTC is not a very big number to make a huge difference in the market, of course it will have an impact, but it is limited, meaning the price can drop a little, but not as it is exaggerated by some.
You must not forget that bitcoins will not be distributed at once to the victims, but will be distributed in batches and in spaced time periods, also not all victims will succeed in passing the conditions of the claim because if they cannot prove their old accounts on the exchange, they will not get anything, all of this It makes me think that the impact of the price will be very limited.

[dragonvslinux]

Common sense would indicate that when the mtgox coins are distributed we would see a very large selloff.  This is just the reality.

Is it? Common sense would suggest that if the trust offer you BTC or fiat, then you would accept fiat. Not accept Bitcoin in order to sell it for fiat yourself. Am I missing something here? Unless those receiving fiat would receive it after those who accept Bitcoin, then it seems like a much better deal to have the trust sell your Bitcoin for you, rather than sell it later via spot on a potentially depressed market.

While generally I'd agree that an increase in "available" or "active" circulating supply provides selling pressure, even though OTC will absorb them through the trust selling, I think this can be another case of "sell the rumour buy the news", just like the "bearish" CPI numbers announced last week. In summary, price could have already factored in the MtGox coins, just like the CPI announcement.

I've heard too many people claim "price will fall" if inflation numbers are bad, if MtGox coins are released, etc, etc. So far, they are sounding like a bunch of idiots to be honest as price proves otherwise.

Many people have had their coins trapped for a long time and will need to sell them immediately because life happens.

These people are unlikely to ever see their coins again, that's the irony though, they will just see the fiat compensation from the trust.

The thing is that the big investors know this is coming, and they may in fact have been causing this crash in order to scoop those coins for cheap.

This I agree with. I think part of the selling pressure was partly due to the anticipation of MtGox coins hitting OTC. Now they scoop for them up for cheap (maybe they already are for all we know).

Good investors always tend to be a step ahead, so as the Bitcoin market has matured we've seen more frontrunning

This is ironically precisely my point. The dumb investors are going to waiting for a huge drop after the coins are distributed (completely unaware of the exact manner in which the coins will be dealt with), while the smart investors will have either positioned themselves according or already booked in their orders OTC. The smartest investors will likely be front-running the buying via OTC, given how cheap BTC currently is.

If price was around $30K support and looking weak, I think this would be a different story, and we'd likely see price fall to $20K where it is now. Likewise if it was around $40K we'd see a drop to $30K support or lower. But currently, price is already very cheap (at a 4-year average), many long-term investors aren't worried about buying at $10K or $20K, they'll simply want to already dip their toes in the water as it were.

In the long-term, better to buy at $20K then double down at $10K, or otherwise double down at $40K even, then simply waiting for a price that may never happen...

[Silberman]

137,000 BTC is not a very big number to make a huge difference in the market, of course it will have an impact, but it is limited, meaning the price can drop a little, but not as it is exaggerated by some.
You must not forget that bitcoins will not be distributed at once to the victims, but will be distributed in batches and in spaced time periods, also not all victims will succeed in passing the conditions of the claim because if they cannot prove their old accounts on the exchange, they will not get anything, all of this It makes me think that the impact of the price will be very limited.

While it is true that in theory the effects of those coins should be limited, there are many actors trying to move the market at all times, this means they could take the opportunity to try to create panic and make the price of bitcoin to crash again, we cannot really underestimate those people as this is one of those opportunities that from the outside seem like the perfect moment to try to create a significant drop in the market, scare weak hands and get their coins for a very low price.

[Tony116]

Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours. If bitcoins do get distributed to previous owners, they will not necessarily sell them. Especially I don't think such amount will be distributed in several transactions. Most likely this process will be done in parts and will last for a long time. Therefore it seems to me that all this will not affect the market much.

The bitcoin distribution will be paid out in installments and take place in batches, which is not likely to affect the market much. But what we should be afraid of are the whales, maybe they take advantage of this situation to spread bad news and create panic in the market again.

As a whole, their main aim is to find a way to collect that amount of bitcoins at a low cost, Thus, it is most likely that there will be FUDs causing a drop in the  market in the near future.

[fabiorem]

I thought they would, but now I doubt it.

[Oilacris]

Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours. If bitcoins do get distributed to previous owners, they will not necessarily sell them. Especially I don't think such amount will be distributed in several transactions. Most likely this process will be done in parts and will last for a long time. Therefore it seems to me that all this will not affect the market much.

The bitcoin distribution will be paid out in installments and take place in batches, which is not likely to affect the market much. But what we should be afraid of are the whales, maybe they take advantage of this situation to spread bad news and create panic in the market again.

As a whole, their main aim is to find a way to collect that amount of bitcoins at a low cost, Thus, it is most likely that there will be FUDs causing a drop in the  market in the near future.

Might not affect the market on one go but it would really be happening gradually if those owners of those coins will be selling off once they do get a hold of with their coins and considering those are coins

into those early years where value isnt that high then selling into the current price wont really be that a bad idea.It is just good if it would really be given by parts but we cant really be still that confident
that those owners wont really be considering on selling out once they are able to get in.

We cant really be sure on what would be the price action in the month of August but considering as Ghost month i suppose then i wont really be that much of a surprise
if we do go down comparing on what the price we are seeing as of this moment.

[STT]

Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours

This should be underlined, the known supply of Mt. Gox coins already will be having an effect on prices even before they are 'physically' exchanged into the order books.    Theres some magnetic forces in price vs news and rumor of future action is acknowledged to have an effect, to the extent that many believe you should then immediately reverse course at the point of the news occurring.  So the day Gox coins are known to appear and some sold, ironically we see then will have some bullish effect.
  Its very confusing, similar has been said of Tesla or Elon Musk selling a large amount of what he previously picked up in the bull run of 2021 (for a rich 'self-made' man he is fickle for sure), 75% of its gone so its been noted this reinforces a possible concrete low for BTC.   We dont know the low is good but the 'negative' news and the fact its now in the past, this is totally a reasonable positive to appreciate with going forward.

[Kemarit]

I understand that the ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunts us up to this day. But I guess life has to move on, so in any case the effect will not that significant, short term maybe, some might sell get their fiat. But who knows, maybe majority will continue to hold specially how Bitcoin grows since the hacks happen. Investors are getting smarter by every bull/bear cycle that they have experience. So I don't think there will a dent in the price this coming August because of this news.

[justdimin]

I understand that the ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunts us up to this day. But I guess life has to move on, so in any case the effect will not that significant, short term maybe, some might sell get their fiat. But who knows, maybe majority will continue to hold specially how Bitcoin grows since the hacks happen. Investors are getting smarter by every bull/bear cycle that they have experience. So I don't think there will a dent in the price this coming August because of this news.

It can't really move on and that is mainly there are tens of thousands of bitcoins there, like literally amount that would be insanely dropping the price to a low level where it can't recover. At one point the "lost" amount was 400k bitcoins, surely not all would be recovered but could you even imagine that? 400k bitcoins would be around 10 billion dollars and the market is not ready for that.

Of course, we just had the news of Tesla selling 1.5 billion and it was alright, so that 400k which probably won't happen, could still happen and we would be fine and it would be alright. I personally believe that the best thing to do would be just letting it be, but people can't, it’s just way too much to ignore.

[OgNasty]

There’s also the question of how many people will accept the early payouts as opposed to waiting to try and get more BTC. They’ve waited this long… Why not wait longer to get more BTC? Especially after the market’s recent lows. I myself will admit I have considered deferring the payment for longer to try and maximize the amount I recover.

[adaseb]

They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.

They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.

[buwaytress]

They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.

They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.

Ah that was the part I was missing: that this time the victims would actually be getting coins and not dollars, I'd always somehow remembered that they'd be getting everything in dollars.

Now it makes me wonder if they were waiting for price bottoming out to make people a bit more whole than they would have been able to.

Still, even if it had been a sale, 100k BTC isn't going to move the market much, really. Deal would have been done OTC and spread across batches anyway.

[OgNasty]

They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.

They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.

I'm pretty sure that isn't right.  No dollars have ever been distributed that I'm aware of.  If there were, I would have received something.  I believe I only had a few cents in there but I did have a decent amount of BTC. 

It's also worth noting that BCH is going to be distributed as well.  I assume most of that will be market dumped.  This is actually a positive in my opinion as much of that BCH money will flow into BTC.  I doubt it will be enough to counteract the amount of BTC sold, but it's something... 

[PrimeNumber7]

"...many creditors have already sold their claims to crypto funds. Groups such as Fortress Investment Group LLC offered creditors an early payout of between $600 and $1,300 in cash.

This will mitigate some of the selling pressure, but not all of it.

But, I think most others that have been waiting years are going to wait for the next bull run. At which point 200000 coins although a large number is not going to matter much as they are not all going to be dumped at once. And even a few hundred or a few thousand being put into the open market over a few days is not that big a deal IMO.

When Gox went out of business, bitcoin was trading at approximately $600, and the ATH was around $1200. The price is currently shy of being 30x the price when Gox filed bankruptcy. These people have not been HODL'ers by choice -- their coin was locked away.

Common sense would indicate that when the mtgox coins are distributed we would see a very large selloff.  This is just the reality.

Is it? Common sense would suggest that if the trust offer you BTC or fiat, then you would accept fiat. Not accept Bitcoin in order to sell it for fiat yourself. Am I missing something here? Unless those receiving fiat would receive it after those who accept Bitcoin, then it seems like a much better deal to have the trust sell your Bitcoin for you, rather than sell it later via spot on a potentially depressed market.

I might be mistaken, but I understand that people had to choose how they wanted to be paid a long time ago. I suspect that many people's financial situation has since changed, and I know the price has changed.

It's also worth noting that BCH is going to be distributed as well.  I assume most of that will be market dumped.  This is actually a positive in my opinion as much of that BCH money will flow into BTC.  I doubt it will be enough to counteract the amount of BTC sold, but it's something... 

I thought the trustee sold the BCH a long time ago? Around the time of the chain split, or a few months after.