Crude Oil drops below $100

[Fortify]

Crude oil has dropped below $100, the first time in months after touching the highest level since 2009, at $130/barrel. Oil prices have dropped the past two months, with both Brent and WTI Crude trending below the $100 level ($91 for WTI and $97 for Brent oil). According to Oilprices.com, consumers have already seen a slight relief in gas prices, dropping from the historic average of $5/gallon down to $4.16.

Haven't checked in other European countries, but in Greece it has only dropped a few cents till now, I'm expecting it to drop within the next week though (from €2.45 to €2.20 in my area at least). It is believed that oil could fall below $90 if inflation persists, something which is highly unlikely to change since it simply keeps rising, driving leading to large price increases in basic necessary goods.

Have you seen any significant drop in gas prices in your area? Will oil drop even further, despite the ongoing war?

It's nice to see oil prices continuing to trend down, as they are funding some pretty despotic regimes right now and the sooner the world is free of oil the better the environment is likely to end up. If you think about Saudi Arabia for example, it has been ruled by one family and essentially cowed by the religion that they support for many decades. That money is able to buy a lot of oppression and we see it even start to strike overseas like the murder of the journalist in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey. While the resources used for solar engineering can be a bit dirty to extract, in the long run they should pay for themselves much more economically than the equivalent oil extraction and last much longer too.

[STT]

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Although the world oil price has decreased in the past 2 months, actually in my hometown I have not seen a decrease and today I am even more surprised when gas stations in my area are closed because there is no gas for sale. This is the first time this has happened in my area, although when oil prices hit record highs in March/April, we still had enough supply.

In Europe we have this issue of no gas at the station, but not because of the high oil price but because of the companies that produce the gas. They simply want to earn more money, since now they see the opportunity to take the economy hostage and get what they want.

Every commodity can double in price quite easily, unless we are also prepared to declare farmers as the enemy it might be more productive to ask why this can happen and how to prevent it.
  We dont want to go down the road of Venezuela which seized the assets of oil companies and reduced their enterprise and innovation to near zero, impoverishing the entire country instead of improving it.    Supply vs demand, its the simplest thing there is no evil in the basic balance that requires production must also meet the demands of any country for its energy.
   We've known energy security is a problem in Europe for 30 years, Germany mistakenly or  mindlessly leant on Russia for an answer to their deficits and it was a mistake to be led by cheap prices;  correct the mistake move on and improve is all we can do.

[South Park]

The funny thing is, it’s around 90's right now, at around 92-93 range give or take, but it was somewhere between 60-130 all year, that’s a WILD difference. Normally we do not have that kind of difference in a single year, get it at 60, increase it to 130, and drop it to 90 doesn't happen all too often.

Sure, it does happen time to time when there is a big issue, I do not know how it was in 2008 for example when the crash happened, but I know that it’s not going to be that easy for anyone to accept the current situation that easily. You can't make a plan with oil prices like this, because you do not know how much you will pay for it next time you buy it.

Even when crude oil had plummeted below $90, we still saw insignificant reductions at gas stations. Not only is this situation bad, but speculation makes it worse than it actually is. I don't know if the same situation occurs in other countries too, but here at least, inflation is to some degree speculative. We're talking about an energy crisis, but in the meantime, electricity providers are soaring in profit. Don't get me started on oil companies.

Volatility is a huge issue. You can't plan anything in advance. Gas, electricity, and groceries constantly change prices, and it's usually for the worse. Our quality of life is worsening, and so is our mental health. We're headed towards the great recession, this is only the beginning. This will be a harsh winter.

I would venture to say the same is true everywhere as greed is universal, where I am residing this is a very common occurrence, so if for example the government in turn decides to create a new tax, businesses immediately raise their prices to their products to pass that cost to the consumers, but even if eventually the tax idea is scratched there is not a decrease in the price at all, so it does not surprise me we are seeing the same with oil all over the world.

[Sithara007]

Surprised to see the Brent Crude prices hovering around the $90-92 level. After the announcement from OPEC, I thought that the crude prices would easily rally to $120-125 levels. And also, the shale oil output in United States has remained flat for the last many months (total US oil output has remained flat at 12.1 million barrels per day). There can be only one conclusion here. The demand has dropped. But I would be surprised if that happened, because COVID lockdowns are over in China and therefore the demand should actually increase.

[Ultegra134]

Surprised to see the Brent Crude prices hovering around the $90-92 level. After the announcement from OPEC, I thought that the crude prices would easily rally to $120-125 levels. And also, the shale oil output in United States has remained flat for the last many months (total US oil output has remained flat at 12.1 million barrels per day). There can be only one conclusion here. The demand has dropped. But I would be surprised if that happened, because COVID lockdowns are over in China and therefore the demand should actually increase.

Don't get ahead of yourself; we still have a long way ahead and, unfortunately, it's still very possible. It's been extremely volatile and gas prices aren't going to change anytime soon, especially with the also volatile USD/EUR exchange rate, which is severely affecting the final purchase price of oil in Europe.

If Brent oil possibly fell below $85 per barrel, then we could perhaps start seeing a difference at the gas stations, but it's so volatile that chances are, these reductions will never be seen by the final consumer. It will have to stabilise at a way lower price than the current one, which is trending just above $91, in order to make any significant difference.

[STT]

rally to $120-125 levels

China is the first reference for higher prices, giant country with little or no oil.  They have ongoing problems with the pandemic and their solution is reducing their GDP quite drastically hence lower oil demand.  OPEC believes they are quite justified in their restriction to production likely because of this, inflation of weak currency standards is not their concern as the oil will always go to the highest bidder.
   125 will happen when full demand is in progress, where as present we are adjusting world GDP lower.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

It's nice to see oil prices continuing to trend down, as they are funding some pretty despotic regimes right now and the sooner the world is free of oil the better the environment is likely to end up.

True....but that's always been true, has it not?  Oil and politics have been interlocked for as long as I've been aware of the two, and I'm 100% sure it's always been the case.  But what I'm not certain of is whether the world weaning itself off of oil is going to improve the situation, because energy suppliers of all types (including oil) have--and have always had--extreme levels of power and influence, and those powers are most likely figuring out how to keep their wealth and power if X becomes the new fuel standard, where X could be hydrogen, vegetable oil, solar, whatever.

I know this thread is somewhat old, but gas prices were trending downward for a while there, and now they've spiked.  If you live in an urban area, I'd consider going without an automobile if you can.  It's not only environmentally friendly but it'll have an impact on your wallet that you'll see pretty much as soon as you unregister your car/truck/whatever.  It costs so much to own and operate even the smallest of cars it's ridiculous.

[DrBeer]

Surprised to see the Brent Crude prices hovering around the $90-92 level. After the announcement from OPEC, I thought that the crude prices would easily rally to $120-125 levels. And also, the shale oil output in United States has remained flat for the last many months (total US oil output has remained flat at 12.1 million barrels per day). There can be only one conclusion here. The demand has dropped. But I would be surprised if that happened, because COVID lockdowns are over in China and therefore the demand should actually increase.

And you also wanted oil to rise, right?
But no, it has not grown and WILL NOT GROW in price. As you very accurately noted - "OPEC's refusal from previously increased production, and a reduction of 1.2 million barrels / day" SHOULD lead to some panic, an increase in futures ... But nothing happened, except for semi-daily "small tantrums", after why oil went into them, of course, Urals "showed an excellent increase in negative price changes" (this is me reporting the news in Russian)
Let's put aside your desire to "at least somehow help Russia", and try to understand what is really happening? Don't you want? Is it true that fantasies and propaganda won't work? I, respecting your right, will leave the right to choose the answer for you! And if you don't want to take part in the assessment of REALITY, I will do it myself, it's not difficult if you live in reality ...

And just in case, I’ll leave a graph from the real world and not the fantasies of Russian propaganda:

[stompix]

China is the first reference for higher prices, giant country with little or no oil. 

China is the world's 4th biggest oil producer, more than Canada, Irak or UAE.
Yes, they import a lot of more than they produce (60/40 ratio) but they do have oil, at least more than Europe overall.

Surprised to see the Brent Crude prices hovering around the $90-92 level. After the announcement from OPEC, I thought that the crude prices would easily rally to $120-125 levels.

Still being surprised by reality?
That Ukraine wasn't conquered in April?
That Russia's 1.7 trillion surpluses (rubles ) in 6 months evaporated in just 3 months to 60 billion?
That Europe gas deposits are 92% full and enough gas not to "freeze" during a warmer than usual winter as it's being announced?
That miraculously despite stupid claims for bankruptcy and business closing Europe has posted record employment levels?
That despite this freezing winter, we are already booked 80% for Xmas and new years' eve in hotels all across the alps?
That Europe miraculously still has sunflower oil?
That we haven't started to use donkey carts as you predicted?

You see, your problem in analyzing things is that you want to find the facts that are allowing you to arrive at the conclusion you want, not how every normal person would think, analyzing reality and seeing what comes out of there!

The driving season is over in the US, and so is it in Europe, that alone is a 15% drop in diesel/benzin consumption, so it's agriculture, so its construction, oil production is the same while everyone is trying to drive less to avoid spending money because of uncertainties, and in what universe when there is less demand for oil does it jump to 300? In the same weird universe where Iran is a superpower!

Oh, and you're not going to like the prices of natural gas either, futures just took a -13.262   dump!
Pretty hard times to be an EU-US hater!

[Sithara007]

~~~
And you also wanted oil to rise, right?
But no, it has not grown and WILL NOT GROW in price. As you very accurately noted - "OPEC's refusal from previously increased production, and a reduction of 1.2 million barrels / day" SHOULD lead to some panic, an increase in futures ... But nothing happened, except for semi-daily "small tantrums", after why oil went into them, of course, Urals "showed an excellent increase in negative price changes" (this is me reporting the news in Russian)
Let's put aside your desire to "at least somehow help Russia", and try to understand what is really happening? Don't you want? Is it true that fantasies and propaganda won't work? I, respecting your right, will leave the right to choose the answer for you! And if you don't want to take part in the assessment of REALITY, I will do it myself, it's not difficult if you live in reality ...
~~~

Why should I want the oil prices to rise? Here in India, we import more than 85% of the crude oil that we consume and at this point we are not just suffering from sky high oil prices, but also from the devaluation of the Indian Rupee (went down by more than 10% since the start of this year). What that means is that the crude oil trading at $90 per barrel now is equivalent to a price of $100 per barrel (due to the weakening of the Rupee). The situation is not sustainable in the long run. The government is under a lot of pressure.  

[Mate2237]

Crude oil has dropped below $100, the first time in months after touching the highest level since 2009, at $130/barrel. Oil prices have dropped the past two months, with both Brent and WTI Crude trending below the $100 level ($91 for WTI and $97 for Brent oil). According to Oilprices.com, consumers have already seen a slight relief in gas prices, dropping from the historic average of $5/gallon down to $4.16.

Haven't checked in other European countries, but in Greece it has only dropped a few cents till now, I'm expecting it to drop within the next week though (from €2.45 to €2.20 in my area at least). It is believed that oil could fall below $90 if inflation persists, something which is highly unlikely to change since it simply keeps rising, driving leading to large price increases in basic necessary goods.

Have you seen any significant drop in gas prices in your area? Will oil drop even further, despite the ongoing war?

That is why I always advocating for States not to depend on crude oil only. Now this will affect these countries that are depending only on crude oil because they take crude oil as their income revenue. Me, I want crude oil to be drastically come to the lowest because as the Oil is going up, it is the poor masses that suffer for it. Nations that depend on crude oil have not utilized the money for national development, mostly the African countries, Nigeria in particular.


As for the gas price in 2017 to 2018, the price of gas 0.80$ in Nigeria but as it is now of 18th of October, 2022, gas price is $3.44 in my location. Therefore if crude oil price go down there is probability that gas price will also come down. Retailers are also using the flood disaster to even increase the price of gas.

[bakasabo]

Therefore if crude oil price go down there is probability that gas price will also come down. Retailers are also using the flood disaster to even increase the price of gas.

I would not rely on that much. Crude oil price is dropping (or if we check some of first posts here, then we could find out that its price is only on july-august level), but in my country (European country) petrol and diesel prices are gaining 3-5 cents daily. We had highest fuel prices in late spring, about 1.90 EUR for diesel. High fuel prices was described as "war consequences". Tomorrow after tomorrow diesel price will step over 2,1 EUR mark. A growth during price drops. What kind of bs it that ?

[DrBeer]

~~~
And you also wanted oil to rise, right?
But no, it has not grown and WILL NOT GROW in price. As you very accurately noted - "OPEC's refusal from previously increased production, and a reduction of 1.2 million barrels / day" SHOULD lead to some panic, an increase in futures ... But nothing happened, except for semi-daily "small tantrums", after why oil went into them, of course, Urals "showed an excellent increase in negative price changes" (this is me reporting the news in Russian)
Let's put aside your desire to "at least somehow help Russia", and try to understand what is really happening? Don't you want? Is it true that fantasies and propaganda won't work? I, respecting your right, will leave the right to choose the answer for you! And if you don't want to take part in the assessment of REALITY, I will do it myself, it's not difficult if you live in reality ...
~~~

Why should I want the oil prices to rise? Here in India, we import more than 85% of the crude oil that we consume and at this point we are not just suffering from sky high oil prices, but also from the devaluation of the Indian Rupee (went down by more than 10% since the start of this year). What that means is that the crude oil trading at $90 per barrel now is equivalent to a price of $100 per barrel (due to the weakening of the Rupee). The situation is not sustainable in the long run. The government is under a lot of pressure.  

Yes, my mistake, I didn’t express my idea correctly - you predicted an increase in the price of Russian oil, “Russia’s total influence on the hydrocarbon market”, and dreamed that Russia would again have a high income from oil, so it’s more correct

I already wrote - do not worry, it will never be good in Russia and with its oil. It becomes, at best, an outcast country like North Korea. Ideally, it will be divided into a large number of free republics.
And oil and gas will become the raw material that will ensure the payment of reparations to all victims of its terror.

But why should India worry? India, like China, is "helping fraternal Russia" by forcing it to sell its oil to them at a dumping price. Like it or not, much of India and China's oil is purchased from a global terrorist country at prices below $40 a barrel. This is Urals brand oil. The fact that the government "sings songs" to you about the high price is already your personal problem. With a high probability, this is also a corruption scheme, when you pay for gasoline / diesel, based on the price of raw materials of $ 90, and your wise rulers pocket the difference. Think about it.

[Crypto Legend]

Good news because inflation in my country continues to increase especially if it has entered the rainy season that usually occurs flooding, longor, and crop failure so that if world oil can be below $ 100 then there is no increase in oil.

[Mauser]

Have you seen any significant drop in gas prices in your area? Will oil drop even further, despite the ongoing war?

Looks like the downwards trend of oil is continuing, right now WTI is trading at 83.45 USD and Brent at 89.26 USD. This should mean that the gas prices are more affordable, unfortunately I don't see any shifting in the prices at my local gas stations. The price I have to pay for my fuel is still very close to the prices during the summer when Oil was above 100 USD. As always the petrol companies are eager to increase prices as soon as oil goes up, but whenever the prices are falling the profits are not being given to the customers. It's a similar story with the gas situation in my country. The prices on the gas market had been falling for some time now, but I didn't hear of any supplier giving the lower prices straight to the customers. It might take another 4-6 months for the lower prices to drop down to each household. Before the war the gas company had one fixed price for the year that was set at the start of the year and had to be paid in monthly instalments. And now we had two price increases in less than 8 months.

[bakasabo]

Can someone please explain, why during crude oil price drops, fuel prices on petrol station dont move or even go up? Is this due to companies loosing profit and try to keep on save level? Such simple explanation? Our companies say that they dont earn much, or take only 5-10 euro cents from every liter sold. And the real problem is government and excise tax, which often is 40-50% or fuels price.

[RealMalatesta]

Why should I want the oil prices to rise? Here in India, we import more than 85% of the crude oil that we consume and at this point we are not just suffering from sky high oil prices, but also from the devaluation of the Indian Rupee (went down by more than 10% since the start of this year). What that means is that the crude oil trading at $90 per barrel now is equivalent to a price of $100 per barrel (due to the weakening of the Rupee). The situation is not sustainable in the long run. The government is under a lot of pressure.  

This is happening in my own nation as well, there are just way too many nations who have devalued fiat, which means that oil is getting higher means it’s not really going higher just alone, fiat also devalues so it’s even higher, and there are situations where our fiat devalued so much that even while oil was going down, we are paying a lot more in reality.

I am paying 10% of my salary for gas prices just for my travels, and I do not even go to work with my car every day, if I did that then I would be paying even more, this is for just regular stuff. So, oil prices going down didn't really changed a thing for us, it should be going down even more, or we should be earning a lot more.

[savetheFORUM]

It's so heartbreaking that despite the situation, many business owners are still taking advantage to earn more. They focus on earning money and growing their business and just ignore the fact that it could affect the economy even worse. In our country, there were a few oil price rollbacks but they still doubled or even tripled later on. This has been happening for a long time which is obviously a part of their business strategy. Yes, we're in the recession period due to many reasons but we can't deny the fact that there are still people who enjoy and take advantage of this crisis.

Scenarios like this are not new but it already happened before during the covid outbreak. People are hoarding alcohol, facemask and other sanitizing products and then they sold it later on at a much higher price. Those types of people have no soul but they only think of themselves on how to make more money even if others are becoming more poorer.

Your country is still better because rollbacks are still being felt there but other countries are more worse because instead of a rollback, prices of the oil only got doubled or tripled. It's hard but people have no choice to avail those over price products because if not then they are the only ones that will suffer.

[Sithara007]

Yes, my mistake, I didn’t express my idea correctly - you predicted an increase in the price of Russian oil, “Russia’s total influence on the hydrocarbon market”, and dreamed that Russia would again have a high income from oil, so it’s more correct

I already wrote - do not worry, it will never be good in Russia and with its oil. It becomes, at best, an outcast country like North Korea. Ideally, it will be divided into a large number of free republics.
And oil and gas will become the raw material that will ensure the payment of reparations to all victims of its terror.

But why should India worry? India, like China, is "helping fraternal Russia" by forcing it to sell its oil to them at a dumping price. Like it or not, much of India and China's oil is purchased from a global terrorist country at prices below $40 a barrel. This is Urals brand oil. The fact that the government "sings songs" to you about the high price is already your personal problem. With a high probability, this is also a corruption scheme, when you pay for gasoline / diesel, based on the price of raw materials of $ 90, and your wise rulers pocket the difference. Think about it.

Initially some of the oil refineries in India were able to source crude oil supplies from Russia, at a discount of about $30 per barrel (although a large part of it was lost as a result of elevated transportation and insurance costs). But in recent months, the discount has hovered at around $5 to $6 per barrel, as a result of increased demand from the European Union. Many of the refiners have reverted to importing crude from Iran and Iraq, as they are giving more discount. The situation may change next month, as the EU embargo on tanker crude from Russia will take in to effect.

[DrBeer]

Can someone please explain, why during crude oil price drops, fuel prices on petrol station dont move or even go up? Is this due to companies loosing profit and try to keep on save level? Such simple explanation? Our companies say that they dont earn much, or take only 5-10 euro cents from every liter sold. And the real problem is government and excise tax, which often is 40-50% or fuels price.

There are several reasons. Both objective and subjective.
1. The price of oil, from which gasoline is NOW made, was purchased when it had a different price. In this case, it's higher. Oil is bought mainly by futures - and these are deliveries of future periods, i.e. the price is formed based on the forecast for the future.
2. Reinsurance of risks, in unstable times, by commercial structures
3. Obtaining additional benefits, speculators