The economic danger of China and Taiwan war

[AmoreJaz]

While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.

Yes - I have heard it and what is China preparing to be ?? do we expect another war and an other crisis?
The world is bleeding and there is a need for the peace. People are tired of all the mess the war lord are creating

as China have seen the ongoing effects of Russia-Ukraine war, whether on political, social, or economic side of things. i don't think they will make the same mistake of following the path of Russia. if in case they will put themselves in war, the sympathy will be on Taiwan and for sure a lot will help in their own ways to counter China. there's always the possibility for war to happen. but we are already in the age where govt top officials should consider the welfare of their people and not their personal interest. sometimes all they need is to sit down and work their differences and come up with some type of arrangements. we're already out in the barbaric period a long time ago, we don't need to get back in that period.

[Eternad]

While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.

Yes - I have heard it and what is China preparing to be ?? do we expect another war and an other crisis?
The world is bleeding and there is a need for the peace. People are tired of all the mess the war lord are creating

Some of the wars that are already happening in different countries where not broadcasted to avoid too much collision of other nations. The China and Taiwan War been televised since US been saying that they will provide militars. Hopefully war will not happen and everything should be talk peacefully since it will affect not only this 3 country but more allies will interfere if ever China will react in what US said. There is still war in Russia and Ukraine and hopefully there is no more that will add in the list.

[fillippone]

Well, strictly speaking.... USA and China are already at war, with the financial & military support that they are giving to the Ukraine and Russia on both sides.  They do not have feet on the ground, but they are funding the war and also giving specialist support on the military side. 

The Taiwanese involvement will be more direct... so it will be officially seen as a direct influence in that conflict. It will send the global financial markets into a downward spiral and Crypto currencies will also feel the influence of that. 

The relationship between USA and China is very much more complicated than the one it was between USA and Russia, even in the bad cold-war time.
The fundamental difference is the economic bonds between those two superpowers.
China produces a huge percentage of US goods, and can sell into US territory without tariffs. US sells his debt to the Chinese, being thus able to roll their debut once again.
I would say no one can afford being at war with the other.
OF course, there will be provocations, incidents and skirmishes. But I can't see a real war breaking out.

[blue_hurricanger]

Well, strictly speaking.... USA and China are already at war, with the financial & military support that they are giving to the Ukraine and Russia on both sides.   They do not have feet on the ground, but they are funding the war and also giving specialist support on the military side.  

The Taiwanese involvement will be more direct... so it will be officially seen as a direct influence in that conflict. It will send the global financial markets into a downward spiral and Crypto currencies will also feel the influence of that.  

The relationship between USA and China is very much more complicated than the one it was between USA and Russia, even in the bad cold-war time.
The fundamental difference is the economic bonds between those two superpowers.
China produces a huge percentage of US goods, and can sell into US territory without tariffs. US sells his debt to the Chinese, being thus able to roll their debut once again.
I would say no one can afford being at war with the other.
OF course, there will be provocations, incidents and skirmishes. But I can't see a real war breaking out.

So a nondirect war, fought over the interest of both USA and China, you say? Sound a lot like we switch from the 'proxy wars' since the cold war to another similar to that. But this time, superpowers were holding back not by nukes but by the over-reliant on each other.

If another one hurt, it might hurt you back so don't force a direct war. Kinda true for the Ukraine-Russia war right now which US and NATO didn't intervene with troops but supplied weapons, ammos and intels. A similar war where Taiwan becomes the main battlefield and US & allies stand outside, supplying Taiwan like that against China sound very likely.

[SaveOurSea]

While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.

Yes - I have heard it and what is China preparing to be ?? do we expect another war and an other crisis?
The world is bleeding and there is a need for the peace. People are tired of all the mess the war lord are creating

Even this war between Russia and Ukraine is still not over and it would be crazy if another war were to come,
Currently, global problems are increasingly complex, especially inflation,
hope there will be good news and that's what everyone hopes for

[DrBeer]

it seems that China just decided to look, or rather watch the real model, using the example of Russian terrorism in relation to Ukraine. China did not say yes or no to Russia, and let the situation develop. Now China understands that the West will not sit idly by, the West has stopped adhering to "avoidance" in dealing with such problems.
China in this situation wins in ANY case
- if Russia wins (this is from the realm of fantasy, and even unscientific), China will get Taiwan, following the steps of Russia (read - the path of a terrorist)

- if Russia loses (and everything goes to this after the defeat of the regular army of the Russian Federation and the recruitment of all sorts of rabble under the auspices of mobilization), China will receive ... RUSSIA. The miserable remnants of Russia will need some sovereign, without this the terrorist country will simply be torn into small pieces.

It seems to me that China's choice is obvious: make a good face, agree and recognize the independence of Taiwan, receive some patronage and support from the United States, and receive Russian territories from the Urals to the eastern outskirts. Maybe Japan will also get its islands occupied by Russia

[kro55]

Despite its huge population and stable economy, China can't simply afford to wage a major war. Human life has become more precious, as the Russians have just found out. Many of the families have just one child each nowadays and they don't want to sacrifice their children in needless wars. And in China, the situation is more exacerbated as a result of the one-child policy. An invasion of Taiwan will cost China millions of lives and there is no way the country can afford that. It was possible in the 20th century, but definitely not in the 21st century.

On the near side of Russia, there is a war going on but not on TV news. Azerbaijan vs Armenia. Pelosi also visited Azerbaijan after a massive attack on Armenia where almost 200 people I believe were dead. The war was also about the contested border region which is Nagornokaraba.

China vs Taiwan tension I guess is dying despite US ships passing thru Taiwan straight, China didn't engage.
If war erupts, Asia will really be disturbed. China has more influence and economic disaster will affect all its surroundings.

Hopefully that won't happen, the US and China should not make statements or actions that further stress Taiwan. China not only has great influence in Asia but it can be said, its influence is worldwide. Once war breaks out, the world will be plunged into a terrible crisis and possibly a third world war. I guess the US doesn't want that either because they are also having to strain their brains to deal with Russia, if China breaks out, they will be very distracted, which is not in their favor.  And North Korea, they don't like America very much.

[samcrypto]

I don't know why USA is always at the forefront when there is a war related issue
The USA has killed so many national solder and have taken so many innocent lives of the people - now this is another war looming - God have mercy on us.

There a reason behind this, USA will not spend a lot of money if they will gain nothing from this.
They have been the strongest country that many countries rely to in return of something, and with this most probably Taiwan will play bigger role for USA and that’s why they will do everything to protect it. Now, with a clear statement from USA, it looks like China wont go for a war because they can’t also afford to have this, they are also struggling economically and with the possible sanctions, they might suffer more.

[Wong Gendheng]

If there is a war between China and Taiwan, there will be world economic chaos, China is a country that has a major contribution to the world, in the event of a war, of course the world will be divided into 2 camps that will continue to make aftershocks in a conflict country.

[Moneyprism]

of course there will be a pretty massive economic impact if the China Mainland and China Taiwan wars occur.. because global chip production still relies on Taiwan and many global companies put their R&D centers in Taiwan, and many other things where Taiwan is the a very strategic country in Asia and the world .. so if this is disturbed, of course it will make a fairly massive economic impact even beyond the war in Ukraine and Russia

[wiss19]

The relationship between USA and China is very much more complicated than the one it was between USA and Russia, even in the bad cold-war time.
The fundamental difference is the economic bonds between those two superpowers.
China produces a huge percentage of US goods, and can sell into US territory without tariffs. US sells his debt to the Chinese, being thus able to roll their debut once again.
I would say no one can afford being at war with the other.
OF course, there will be provocations, incidents and skirmishes. But I can't see a real war breaking out.

They are not really "enemies" like USA and Russia has been. I mean they are afraid of each other because they are the polar opposites of each other on politics, one of them is capitalist liberalism, the other is authoritarian communism, so it's literally the exact opposite of each other, but when it comes down to being enemies?

They are not enemies, not in a war type of sense at least, which is good for the world because we shouldn't really be anyone's enemy, the whole world should be in peace, I would rather have a world where military is never needed and long gone and we never need soldiers again, it's a dream world of course but that's an unfortunate thing, wouldn't we all want that?

[kro55]

I don't know why USA is always at the forefront when there is a war related issue
The USA has killed so many national solder and have taken so many innocent lives of the people - now this is another war looming - God have mercy on us.

There a reason behind this, USA will not spend a lot of money if they will gain nothing from this.
They have been the strongest country that many countries rely to in return of something, and with this most probably Taiwan will play bigger role for USA and that’s why they will do everything to protect it. Now, with a clear statement from USA, it looks like China wont go for a war because they can’t also afford to have this, they are also struggling economically and with the possible sanctions, they might suffer more.

They are the number 1 power in the world and want to influence all countries in the world, this confirms their number one position and moreover they are the world's leading arms exporter country since the world since After World War II. It can be said that once there is a war, they are the most profitable country.

It is understandable that the two sides compete for Taiwan, it can be seen that Taiwan is the mainstay of the world's semiconductor industry. Taiwan accounts for more than 50% of the world's semiconductor industry market share and all technological equipment depends on this sector. If anyone holds the field, they are considered the future holder of the world.
In my opinion, whether China will launch an attack on Taiwan will depend a lot on the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

[judaspriest]

If there is a war between China and Taiwan, there will be world economic chaos, China is a country that has a major contribution to the world, in the event of a war, of course the world will be divided into 2 camps that will continue to make aftershocks in a conflict country.

I can't imagine the two countries going to war because it would worsen global conditions,
Currently, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing and has many negative impacts,
at this time it can be said that the global economy is in chaos and this is a difficult condition

[|MINER|]

I also agree that the ongoing excitement between Taiwan and China is a dire signal for the entire world economy.  In particular, a large part of global trading travels over Taiwan's maritime borders. Moreover, one of the world's most technologically advanced countries Japan will face a terrible situation. Overall the whole world will go through a terrible situation if this war starts so I think the two countries should reconcile before the situation worsens.

[justdimin]

Many political experts say that the tensions of China vs. Taiwan will soon explode and China will invasion to Taiwan, but if we look at developments in China I am sure this will not be done by China, there will be many losses that can make China a bankrupt country, different from Russia, who invited Ukraine because the Ukraine allies were not as strong as USA support to Taiwan.

You could never know what’s going to happen with a nation. I mean from what I am reading they are saying that military is doing or at least on the verge of a coup because of this decision, so there could be a logical reason for them to not invade anywhere and that would be lovely, we wouldn't want a war.

But, the fact that Russia ended up attacking Ukraine and nobody stopped them (even though helped, but not directly) and the worst that happened was sanctions, then we could assume that China could get away with it as well, who knows? That’s why we can never be 100% sure that China won't attack anywhere, there is a chance, high or low, but a chance of them doing it.

[doomloop]

of course there will be a pretty massive economic impact if the China Mainland and China Taiwan wars occur.. because global chip production still relies on Taiwan and many global companies put their R&D centers in Taiwan, and many other things where Taiwan is the a very strategic country in Asia and the world .. so if this is disturbed, of course it will make a fairly massive economic impact even beyond the war in Ukraine and Russia

So Taiwan is also a chip supplier just like Russia, hmm that's interesting but we also can't disregard the importance of china in the world. I think they have more resources which the world relies on when compared to Taiwan and Russia. Imagine if they will be put on sanction, I think you are right that the effect is going to massive than the recent Ukraine-Russian war but many users are saying that china won't fight because they already know what can happen. Not only because they care on other countries but they do care the most of their business. I remember china always wants to become number one but this war can only slows them down.

[DrBeer]

A bit on China's economic woes: "The US has banned high-tech companies from building new factories in China for 10 years. The Biden administration has said US tech companies receiving federal funding will be banned from building 'advanced technology' facilities in China for the next 10 years." years.
The ban is part of a $50 billion plan to develop its own semiconductor industry.
American corporations are demanding more government support to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturers."

https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-62813956

[Argoo]

But, the fact that Russia ended up attacking Ukraine and nobody stopped them (even though helped, but not directly) and the worst that happened was sanctions, then we could assume that China could get away with it as well, who knows? That’s why we can never be 100% sure that China won't attack anywhere, there is a chance, high or low, but a chance of them doing it.

If Russia suffers a crushing defeat in the war on the territory of Ukraine, the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan will also noticeably drop. The Chinese leadership is already behaving much more cautiously, having seen how civilized states have united in helping Ukraine with financial, humanitarian and military support. If the world community had given the same support to Georgia back in 2008, when Russian tanks invaded the territory of this country, then Putin would hardly have dared to attack Ukraine. But even in 2014, when Russia seized the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, as well as parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the world community reacted very passively, which made it possible for Putin to continue military aggression.

[DrBeer]

But, the fact that Russia ended up attacking Ukraine and nobody stopped them (even though helped, but not directly) and the worst that happened was sanctions, then we could assume that China could get away with it as well, who knows? That’s why we can never be 100% sure that China won't attack anywhere, there is a chance, high or low, but a chance of them doing it.

If Russia suffers a crushing defeat in the war on the territory of Ukraine, the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan will also noticeably drop. The Chinese leadership is already behaving much more cautiously, having seen how civilized states have united in helping Ukraine with financial, humanitarian and military support. If the world community had given the same support to Georgia back in 2008, when Russian tanks invaded the territory of this country, then Putin would hardly have dared to attack Ukraine. But even in 2014, when Russia seized the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, as well as parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the world community reacted very passively, which made it possible for Putin to continue military aggression.

I already wrote - China is using Russia as a "guinea pig". And apparently, in 2022, Russia, reporting to its older brother, promised to "create a precedent" that would, in fact, allow China to also, without fear, get Taiwan. The calculation was that the EU /USA/..., as in 2008 with Georgia and in 2014 with Ukraine - the world will silently swallow these terrorist attacks, and accept the idea "great Russia has the right to do so." And then China will also say "we are great, we have the right to do anything with impunity"
But Russia greatly miscalculated, or strongly believed in its fake forces, and as a result, greatly framed China. And now China understands that it will not succeed in seizing Taiwan just like that, and there will be a lot of and very complex problems. That is why China has become less favorable to Russia, and now it does everything only in its own interests, completely ignoring the interests of its raw materials appendage.

[Wakate]

If there is a war between China and Taiwan, there will be world economic chaos, China is a country that has a major contribution to the world, in the event of a war, of course the world will be divided into 2 camps that will continue to make aftershocks in a conflict country.

China has the second world biggest economy after the united States. If war break out between China and Taiwan then this will have greater effects than the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is very certain that the United  States would want to support Taiwan because it is benefiting huge from the country both in resources and economy basis.
This war if it eventually break out it will affect the world entirely because many of the countries of the world depends on China for raw materials and man power for them to meet up with industrialization including to United States.