What amount of fiat and/bitcoin would you consider safe holding in a bear market

[franky1]

Well the bear market is a down period in the crypto-currency space

fiat loses value. so when fiat is in bear. your losing more value..

however a crypto when its price is low. is a good value to buy in. a great opportunity to stock up.

when inflation is high you need to get rid of fiat. when bitcoin is low you gotta hoard bitcoin

[1715482006]

1715482006

[Oilacris]

A bear market could be said to be when the share price of a commodity continue to decline over a period of time. Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets.
In these so called “trying times”, selling off assets are encouraged and people are inclined to sell because of the unstable and/or decline in prices.

    I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).
Understandably, people would have different thoughts and opinions on how much is safe to hold cause income level varies among individuals.

This would really vary on each person because we do have different level of risk taking on particular things which it would really be that understandable that numbers wont really be the same.
In my case 80% in fiat and 20% in crypto which i dont really bother myself with my crypto holdings despite of the bearish condition that we are in.It does depend on certain individuals
on selling out their assets basing on their plans.

We know that we cant just have bear markets forever and for those who had bought cheap will eventually be able to make out some profits or gains later on
but of course it wont be guarantee on which one.

[coolcoinz]

stable coins is pretty much fiat in a different form.. so your suggesting
75% fiat and only 15% bitcoin

fiat LOSES VALUE..
hold fiat for 2 years and i guarantee you you will not be able to buy as much car fuel, bread, milk, meat, veg

It's worse than that. Stable coins are really a worse type of fiat because they make you take additional risk, especially if you're in USDt that as we all know is not fully backed and we don't know how much of backing there really is. It can be 90%, but it also can be 60%. If we take the best case scenario for them and assume they have 90% backing, if things go south 10% of their investors aren't going to be able to exchange their tokens for anything of value. Would you like to be in that 10%?

Fiat is inflationary. If you hold Turkish lira for instance, you're better off buying BTC because in the last 2 years it went down less than the lira. It actually outperformed a number of fiat curencies. A year ago BTC was at 30k and now it's at about 35% loss from that day. The lira is down almost 50% in that time.

As much bitcoin as possible is the only way at this situation, but it's a good idea to mix it a bit with gold and silver, maybe add some stocks like energy companies, maybe ETH since it dropped hard after the merge but it's not facing any problems so it's a good buy.

[lovesmayfamilis]

I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market

The bear market is for bitcoin, not bitcoin and fiat together, fiat currencies experience inflation, which has always been a problem for fiat holders.

100% of your money is safe in bitcoin in any market, bull or bear, if you the owner keeps it safe, you asked if it is safe, so that is the answer, bitcoin will not dump until it is no more, like altcoins do, the winter period may not be a good time for bitcoin holders, but the fall is only transient and the price will correct in the long run.

Despite the fact that your money is 100% safe in bitcoin, you should not invest 100% of your money in it, that is investing more than you can afford to lose, choose an amount that suits you, one that wouldn't need you to go back to your portfolio to withdraw out of it because you are now broke in real life and need some money. But as for the safety of your money, if you don't make any errors, it is certain.

Are you serious? One hundred percent, no more, no less? Does it happen? For me, this is a utopia about Bitcoin. What about contingencies? And yes, it all depends on the country you live in. I would rather hold a smaller amount of bitcoin than I have in fiat; more to say, I am someone who lost a sufficient amount while hoping that bitcoin would rise soon. Therefore, bitcoin is good, but I would prefer to invest in it only because, as it has often sounded, it is not a pity to lose. 
As long as the situation with the economy and wars develops in a negative stream of news, I do not think that we should hope for any big growth. Does anyone see an end to the bad news?

[Iroh]

I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market

The bear market is for bitcoin, not bitcoin and fiat together, fiat currencies experience inflation, which has always been a problem for fiat holders.

100% of your money is safe in bitcoin in any market, bull or bear, if you the owner keeps it safe, you asked if it is safe, so that is the answer, bitcoin will not dump until it is no more, like altcoins do, the winter period may not be a good time for bitcoin holders, but the fall is only transient and the price will correct in the long run.

Despite the fact that your money is 100% safe in bitcoin, you should not invest 100% of your money in it, that is investing more than you can afford to lose, choose an amount that suits you, one that wouldn't need you to go back to your portfolio to withdraw out of it because you are now broke in real life and need some money. But as for the safety of your money, if you don't make any errors, it is certain.

It’s not safe to put all of your money in bitcoin, neither is it wise. You do not put all your eggs into a single basket.
You say it’s 100% safe to have your money in bitcoin but we shouldn’t still put a 100% into it. Personally, I don’t think your money is a 100% safe in bitcoin. I’m no naysayer but I don’t fully trust bitcoin the same way I haven’t got complete faith in fiat currency. And that’s why I’m a bit hesitant to put any higher than 30%.

[teosanru]

A bear market could be said to be when the share price of a commodity continue to decline over a period of time. Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets.
In these so called “trying times”, selling off assets are encouraged and people are inclined to sell because of the unstable and/or decline in prices.

    I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).
Understandably, people would have different thoughts and opinions on how much is safe to hold cause income level varies among individuals.

I think it's the inverse, in the bear market especially the ones like the current scenario where we are at rock bottom, most of your holdings should be in BTC only so that you can enjoy anytime the market reveres from here. Just a small portion say 25% should be in fiat which will be used to Dollar Cost average your positions in the next leg down. This way you will ensure that you are able to be in a better position whenever the market falls next and are also ready for any reversal. Selling of should never be a considerable option in these scenarios, one should always try to keep calm and don't sell unless you are in dire need of money.

[rby]

30% fiat.
45% stable coins.
10% altcoins.
15% btc.

stable coins is pretty much fiat in a different form.. so your suggesting
75% fiat and only 15% bitcoin

fiat LOSES VALUE..
hold fiat for 2 years and i guarantee you you will not be able to buy as much car fuel, bread, milk, meat, veg

If you read a bit down in my statement, you would have seen this

The 45% in stable coins is waiting for the final signal to buy bitcoin, when I am convinced it has gotten to the bottom. But for now, I keep doing DCA from the 45% stable coins.

The 45% in stable coin is been accumulated, waiting for a possible $15k price, if this happens, all will go into bitcoin. But till then I keep DCA.
Fiat loses value to what ever extent you can think of, it is not an exergeration. The best is to buy properties as you advised rather than saving in fiat currency.

[BITCOIN4X]

I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).

OP, have more fiat then make sure you buy more bitcoin during a bear market. You will definitely enjoy the results in the long term, but I don't expect you to forget the risks.

There is a good strategy to practice when the market is bearish, that is DCA. So you can use 20% to 50% of your fiat to buy bitcoin, so you will have a lower chance of getting it for the next accumulation process. Don't be afraid to make yourself a long-term investor in bitcoin, but don't if you can't afford the risks.

[noormcs5]

A bear market could be said to be when the share price of a commodity continue to decline over a period of time. Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets.
In these so called “trying times”, selling off assets are encouraged and people are inclined to sell because of the unstable and/or decline in prices.

    I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).
Understandably, people would have different thoughts and opinions on how much is safe to hold cause income level varies among individuals.

How about holding everything in bitcoin except the money which you need in your daily usage? If you have the money and the funds, it's best to buy in the bear market as much as you can and then wait for the bull market. We cannot sell at the top in the bull market but if you have some experience you can sell near the top and gain awesome profits.

[Oceat]

A bear market could be said to be when the share price of a commodity continue to decline over a period of time. Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets.
In these so called “trying times”, selling off assets are encouraged and people are inclined to sell because of the unstable and/or decline in prices.

    I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).
Understandably, people would have different thoughts and opinions on how much is safe to hold cause income level varies among individuals.

How about holding everything in bitcoin except the money which you need in your daily usage? If you have the money and the funds, it's best to buy in the bear market as much as you can and then wait for the bull market. We cannot sell at the top in the bull market but if you have some experience you can sell near the top and gain awesome profits.

Yeah, I will consider holding any amount since you will never know when you will going to sell some of it. There are no safe zone for holding any amount for as long as you can afford to lose it then that's the risk you consider no matter what happens. Converting it to fiat or just holding on to fiat will not give you anything during the bull run even if you hide your fiat in the banks there are no difference. And somehow, Bitcoin is different since every market cycle the price changes and there your investment grow or down depending on the market situation.

[kawetsriyanto]

How about holding everything in bitcoin except the money which you need in your daily usage? If you have the money and the funds, it's best to buy in the bear market as much as you can and then wait for the bull market. We cannot sell at the top in the bull market but if you have some experience you can sell near the top and gain awesome profits.

What do you mean "holding everything in bitcoin"? Do you think to invest in a single coin, BTC only?
I was thinking to have a single coin (BTC), but I prefer to diversify crypto assets now. I assume we should consider top altcoins too, they have a good potential to increase their values in the future. Holding BTC is good, but holding top altcoins is a nice idea. During this bearish market, it is a perfect time to buy both BTC and top altcoins.

Regarding OP questions, I only invest in BTC 15%, Top Altcoins 25%, Fiats 60%.

[noorman0]

Any investment plan will be considered safe if it does not involve a reserve allocation of your daily needs. Remember the common word that you must be prepared to lose with the value of the investment.

I have owned almost 60% of the portfolio in stablecoins since Bitcoin's decline surpassed the first 40k and only a few % of what I spent the DCA way. I think it's a shame to leave even $10 fiat (investment portfolio) if we squander this bearish season.

[FallingKnife]

"Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets. "

Thats what predator hodl'rs anticipate and prey on.
 
Its only the gamblers who jump back and forth between Bitcoin and fiat/altcoins who ask questions like this. "Smart" money always wants to be in fiat in the evening.  Smarter money seeks to hold hard assets especially Bitcoin, even when its a bad day in fiat terms. I've been in Bitcoin 10+ years; I puked a little when I sold a couple in 2020.  I'll never make that mistake again.

[franky1]

If you read a bit down in my statement, you would have seen this

The 45% in stable coins is waiting for the final signal to buy bitcoin, when I am convinced it has gotten to the bottom. But for now, I keep doing DCA from the 45% stable coins.

The 45% in stable coin is been accumulated, waiting for a possible $15k price, if this happens, all will go into bitcoin. But till then I keep DCA.
Fiat loses value to what ever extent you can think of, it is not an exergeration. The best is to buy properties as you advised rather than saving in fiat currency.

lets imagine you get min wage ($10/h *40 *40=$1600)
you keep $600 as fiat (~36%)
put $1k a month into stable. purely to invest into crypto..
for easy math numbers

where you want to be based on your numbers 2parts btc 3 parts altcoin
meaning 40% btc 60% alt(not sure why but you have your reasons for altcoin preference)

meaning of the $1k going to stable.. you are reserving $400 for bitcoin

now if you work out bitcoins "value window"
which by world costs is $15k -$95k
or by market measures is $17k-$70k

lets go with the first one. where it has a window of 80k gap. (15-95)
measure it out as a %

m.price: 15   19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95  
percent:100  95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 05 00


at a price of $21k each month i would put in 92%($368) of the $400 monthly investment money to buy btc..  and accumulate $31-631 a month in stable
depending on how much altcoin you bought and to take some opportunities if price went down

after all if the price went up $2k($23k) you will be angry that you missed out on the 10% lower price where you done nothing but just waited out and didnt buy in.
however if the price didnt go up but went down $2k($19k).. you would still be waiting out hoping for a lower price($15k) which may never come..

thus having a large stash of stable doing nothing. and when the eventual price rise does come.. wishing you bought in while low

so set some limits. and assign a %chance of up or down to decide how much each month you should invest
 EG what is the max you think the price will reach in the next 6 months. set up your own window and percentage it out into increments of how much of monthly amount you should invest per month into btc and how much you want to leave aside for the rare chance of "bottom"

EG if you think $30k is the top limit for next 6month window

15    16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30
100  94  88  82  76  69  62  55  48  41  34  27  21  14  07  00

that way at $21k price you are 62% btc 38% stable of the $400 btc allotment
you assigned

obviously at top of window it becomes 0% where you just stop investing most of your fiat

[Cookdata]

A bear market could be said to be when the share price of a commodity continue to decline over a period of time. Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets.
In these so called “trying times”, selling off assets are encouraged and people are inclined to sell because of the unstable and/or decline in prices.

    I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).
Understandably, people would have different thoughts and opinions on how much is safe to hold cause income level varies among individuals.

Not everyone is a believer in fiat, they will never keep it regardless of market conditions and bear markets are also subjective. I saw a wallet address from a user in this forum who hold bitcoin throughout last year November when bitcoin hit an all-time high and till now, the user has refused to sell his bitcoin and it amazed me that the wallet received his first transaction a few years ago when bitcoin was cheap, some people are determined to hold until bitcoin becomes so scarce that holding one will be difficult.

Personally, I feel its a bit too late to be holding into fiat, bitcoin price has found its support around the $18k range and despite the FED and their interest rate, it is still holding that position, it will be better if you convert them and buy bitcoin now that the price is down, you ware having them at a discount, we may or may not see the $13k people are anticipating.

[Pierre 2]

Its best to start accumulating Bitcoin under 20000 dollars. Because Bitcoin's top was like 20000 in bull run before last one. So I see it as 'perfect bottom'. Anything under 20000 dollars is definitely steal (for buyer, not seller). My favourite is to hold my money on stable usd coins and buy at different levels around. Its best to at least put %50 of your wealth into Bitcoin in bear market if you wanna make huge gains in bull run.

[Oasisman]

30% fiat.
45% stable coins.
10% altcoins.
15% btc.

stable coins is pretty much fiat in a different form.. so your suggesting
75% fiat and only 15% bitcoin

fiat LOSES VALUE..
hold fiat for 2 years and i guarantee you you will not be able to buy as much car fuel, bread, milk, meat, veg

If you read a bit down in my statement, you would have seen this

The 45% in stable coins is waiting for the final signal to buy bitcoin, when I am convinced it has gotten to the bottom. But for now, I keep doing DCA from the 45% stable coins.

The 45% in stable coin is been accumulated, waiting for a possible $15k price, if this happens, all will go into bitcoin. But till then I keep DCA.
Fiat loses value to what ever extent you can think of, it is not an exergeration. The best is to buy properties as you advised rather than saving in fiat currency.

lol! Clever.
That's actually the best course of action to do when you're waiting to get BTC in a lower price and try to DCA as fast as you can before the price bounce back up a few hundred dollars or a grand.
There a bit difference between holding a fiat and a stable coin thought they ultimately have similar value all the time, but fiat can't buy Bitcoin or any altcoin right away when you see a good entry point. With crypto's high volatility, it is possible to miss a good dip when you got a fiat converted into Btc or stablecoin.
And one last thing, I agree to both of you that keeping/saving a fiat won't save you even a few cents in the next coming years. I'd also suggest to buy properties and invest into real estate, it's safer than all of the investments in the market today. But if your risk appetite is in a tremendous level, then better invest in Bitcoin as well. 

[franky1]

i agree, USING stable coin as a tool to get into bitcoin has benefits of time. its faster than dowing a bank wire transfer out and then a wire dranswer in.

using it as a temporary tool for instance to move from one exchange to another for arbitrade opportunities..

but SAVING value long term in fiat or stable.. is not a good investment plan

..
when it comes tochooseing the %of the fiat lump sums to put to btc or altcoin. its simple..

rate each coin you are interested in based on their price position inside the window (mining cost low and max, your perceived low and max of 6 months)

EG lets take ethereum PoW vs ethereum PoS pre-post merge
PoW                      V
       ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||    30% risk
       0         900    1.8k     2.7k     3.6k

PoS                   V
       |||||||||||||||||!||||||||||||||||||    37% risk
       0         900    1.8k     2.7k     3.6k

BTC          V
       |||||||||||||||||!||||||||||||||||||    6% risk
       0    15    30    45    60    75    90
  
as you can see the price of ethereum is now in the orange mid risk zone. because ethereum has now degraded to a poor store of value algo where the possible-bottom is a few dollars because it costs only a few dollars a coin to create ethereum thus those staking can sell down to a few dollars and still profit
yep so far Eth staking has dropped the store of value minimum support from ~$900 to about $30

thus not a great time to be holding/investing in ethereum compared to other coins that are more in the green. like bitcoin and have a better value support

[Detritus]

I always like to buy more Bitcoin during bear market which makes me have just 5% fiat left and 95% Bitcoin. When demand gets so high on me, I usually sell little Bitcoin to fulfill the need. I just can't hold too much fiat without wanting to buy Bitcoin. So it all depends on individual, people keep fait based on the numbers of need that may arise.

[salad daging]

    I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).
Understandably, people would have different thoughts and opinions on how much is safe to hold cause income level varies among individuals.

I think everyone has a different opinion in today's bear market but to keep it safe I think it's fiat.

First, when there is a bearish occurrence, some people feel panicked and they prefer to hold on to a stable coin to keep the asset down because they don't want a very big loss.
Second, they dare to buy as much Bitcoin as possible because this is the lowest price so they make large-scale purchases for the long term either in the DCA system or also Dips by doing this they have more confidence in Bitcoin which is one of the real investments.

Or create other portfolios by dividing a few percent by the allocation that is needed, I am general, but still fiat is needed for our daily use.