ㅤ

[m2017]

Actually the present Bitcoin price was once an all-time high but then we already have so many other all time high after then so we a familiar with this market condition, unless for the newbies who are just getting into Bitcoin and have taken Bitcoin as some form of an escape route from financial limitation there by taking Bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme and they expect a 10x price increase the moment they buy.

But for those who have been around for a while now, you will know that the present Bitcoin price condition is just a.phase that will soon pass away and a new price trend will be seen again.

This is how it has been and that will not change in the future, so we have to get used to it.

Everyone here was once a newbie in the cryptocurrency until we began to understand how things work and begin to play along. I remember I have sold bitcoin at great loss even when I don't have need for the money. It is just because my money was going down and I thought it will not rise again. After I sold at great loss, it was less that 14days, Bitcoin turned back and entered into profits, that was actually a great lesson for me. It showed me that even if bitcoin goes very down, it will still return back to bull. Many of the newbies will not understand till they learn by experience and after that they will get use to the process. Bitcoin is just cyclical.

It is better to learn from the experience of others than from your own at a loss. Moreover, a lot has already been written about the cyclicity of bitcoin, but a non-reasonable person will not listen to this. Beginners need to accept this as a rule, as a law in the world of cryptocurrencies - bitcoin is cyclical.  You don't try to fight gravity and take it for granted, do you? The same must be done with bitcoin. Realize, accept and use for your own good.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Thank you for taking the time to make such a comment. And yes when I read back what I said, I know I said it with some sort of malice to the guy I was responding to, which I find is something I should not be doing too much on this forum, moving toward negativity just because of conditions.

You are right that everyone does have different circumstances, and that's why the only real advice to give is to understand what your needs are, and to use Bitcoin in a way that suits your needs. And in giving true personal experiences, rather than picking up some "strategy" and commenting on it without a way to reflect from experience.

Basically, like almost anything else in life that involves financial risk

I definitely agree that for newbies we can't be telling them to buy all the time UNLESS we have also to give them perspective (and buying all the time is not same as dumping every spare money into BTC), in fact, if people really push me for advice, it's the same principles. Don't invest what you will miss. Think of it as many years of waiting and a test, to wait 5 years at least so you are not a newbie and can make up your mind better. Don't lose your day job, meaning, don't waste time trading and figuring out market.

I know that it is not always easy to appreciate context, and in part I was reacting to your assertion that the older guys here will be dumping on the newbies, and even though there is some truth in that, I do not feel bad about it because I never proclaim to really know where the BTC price is going to go.. even when the BTC price had gone up a lot, it is not inevitable that it is going to correct back down.

Admittedly, there can be quite a few dilemmas in terms of both telling newbies (no coiners or low coiners) to get started ASAP, but at the same time, trying NOT to take responsibility for when they choose to buy or the technique that they choose to follow.  If they front load a lot of money into BTC in the $50ks and $60ks, then it could take many years (3 years or more) for them to get back to breaking even territory, and there is not even any kind of guarantee that they will get back to break even territory.

I know that there are a lot of scenarios in which they could invest all at once (at the top) and then not have any money to DCA and/or to buy on dips, yet at the same time, I frequently will tell people that I started to invest at the top of the 2013 BTC price cycle and my first BTC purchased at the end of November 2013, cost me right around $1,200 (it was marked up because I bought it peer to peer through Local bitcoins), and it took about 3.5 years for that particular purchase to break even and then to get above $1,200 (which was around April 2017).  But still between late 2013 and late 2015, I had brought my average cost per BTC down to about $500, but then early 2017, I had some hacking (loss of BTC issues), so I like to suggest that my incident had caused my average BTC cost to go up from below $500 to right around $750 per BTC..

So there are ways that we can continue to engage with BTC rather than just making one lump sum BTC purchase at the top - when we should be able to look at charts and see what the BTC price had been for the previous 6 months, year or even looking several years back in order to be responsible for our decisions whether to invest, how much and how to go about doing it.. in order to attempt to make our investment into something that resembles investing rather than gambling. 

A similar idea in regards to using leverage or getting a loan.  I frequently tell people that it can be good to use leverage to attempt to get ahead, but there are needs to have back up plans in terms of ways to service a loan, and if you put proceeds of a loan into bitcoin, then you better make sure that you have an income in which you can service the debt and to even be able to pay it off when it comes due rather than being dependent upon your BTC investment going up in value in order to be able to pay off the loan.  So there are smarter ways to do things and smarter ways to take risks without risking more than you can afford to lose.  Over the years, I have made a lot of money off of using debts to invest, and sometimes my investments did not go in the direction that I expected, but I had alternative means to pay off the debt if the investment moved in a price direction opposite my expectations (and hopes). 

Another thing might be to consider that if we perceive something to be risky, then there may be a lot stronger argument that suggests to cut down on the position size to a smaller amount rather than not investing.  So maybe instead of investing 25% of the investment portfolio into bitcoin, you might only invest 10% or maybe even decide that it is better to just invest 1%, so there are reasonable calculations that can be made in regards to position size that does not remove you from the investment, but instead still gives you some exposure without necessarily putting too much of your overall wealth at risk.

[salad daging]

Thank you for taking the time to make such a comment. And yes when I read back what I said, I know I said it with some sort of malice to the guy I was responding to, which I find is something I should not be doing too much on this forum, moving toward negativity just because of conditions.

You are right that everyone does have different circumstances, and that's why the only real advice to give is to understand what your needs are, and to use Bitcoin in a way that suits your needs. And in giving true personal experiences, rather than picking up some "strategy" and commenting on it without a way to reflect from experience.

Basically, like almost anything else in life that involves financial risk

I definitely agree that for newbies we can't be telling them to buy all the time UNLESS we have also to give them perspective (and buying all the time is not same as dumping every spare money into BTC), in fact, if people really push me for advice, it's the same principles. Don't invest what you will miss. Think of it as many years of waiting and a test, to wait 5 years at least so you are not a newbie and can make up your mind better. Don't lose your day job, meaning, don't waste time trading and figuring out market.

We must understand our existence and never compare it with other circumstances. Of course, all of them are different in terms of what they do, we often hear other people's advice to buy bitcoin under any circumstances but we must know how we are about adjusting spending money to Bitcoin how much we can do it in terms of whether it is slowly buying every time we have money, or regularly weekly or monthly or buying once and storing it regardless of our abilities and in previous experience, but in essence we already know about the risks involved. faced, including at the time of the bear market.

Maybe most people buy bitcoins from financial income every month, therefore there must be adjustments from other fees and also to bitcoin investments, basically we have to be able to develop a strategy that we understand while we can, whether it's buying all the time or in a downturn it's up to the important experience to make us a good pattern in minimizing other urgent situations.

During a longer wait (eg 5 years) we have to be able to get through it, but sometimes it's difficult what happens later, but that's as said before, finances must be maintained and other reserve funds must be available for emergencies so that our steps can be taken into account. The front is much better.

In order to maintain financial stability, of course, you should not leave the main job which is the source of money for yourself.

[Editbar]

during the bull markets when bitcoin's putting in the big green candles and uber drivers telling you about the latest meme coins that are the point where there's a maximum financial risk and our brains are biased in the opposite direction because our recent memory bias is saying that risk equals greater returns all the

risks that we've taken in the past six
months have panned out well and
we expect that to continue in the future
the same is true of bear markets where
our recent memory bias suggests that any
risks that we take will not be financially rewarded further risk equals further ruin

and this creates a skewed cognitive bias
where our perception of risk actually
differs from the real risk during market
cycles but any time during a bull market
there will be people posted on Twitter
and in the news saying that bitcoin is
going to go to the moon and there's
going to be a 5x or a 10x from here and
the same people will be telling you in
bear markets that bitcoin is going to
retrace to previous levels whether that

be 10k or 3k or it's going to zero.

[LUCKMCFLY]

It's true that everyone can not hold Bitcoin. Only those who think long-term about Bitcoin are worth holding. Those who express concern about a bearish market are not true holders of Bitcoin. There are also doubts about how much they believe in Bitcoin. A real Bitcoin investor calls this bearish market as an opportunity.

With the Bitcoin cycle in mind. We know that we don’t need to completely hold Bitcoin most of the time because there’s always a time for correction and pump in every cycle. It’s still good to take profit and just hold when the price is not moving anymore at rock bottom level. We can have a better profit opportunity if we can do Bitcoin holding in a smart way and don’t let whales use our holding as escape liquidity because we are holding.

What happens is that seeing bitcoin as cyclical for me is like seeing it as a pattern that repeats itself and at a certain point there is a pattern, but for me there is a pattern that is not only repeated in Bitcoin but in the entire speculative market, which is Accumulation and Distribution, what sometimes repeats itself or not according to the circumstances is the bullish trend, or the bearish trend, or the re-accumulation, or re-distribution, that is where everything changes, if we see it from that point By sight, I think it is a cyclical pattern, but at this time it is very difficult to determine, due to the number of fundamentals that do not allow a pattern to be established, or something similar.

[Bazzu]

which is how the bitcoin cycle is, so don't let our investment lose because of the bear market, because when the bear market ends it will become a bull market, so in my opinion, if you invest in bitcoin, don't panic because? with a bitcoin cycle like that, after all, we will benefit as long as we don't panic and wait patiently.

[ajiz138]

Maybe most people buy bitcoins from financial income every month, therefore there must be adjustments from other fees and also to bitcoin investments, basically we have to be able to develop a strategy that we understand while we can, whether it's buying all the time or in a downturn it's up to the important experience to make us a good pattern in minimizing other urgent situations.

During a longer wait (eg 5 years) we have to be able to get through it, but sometimes it's difficult what happens later, but that's as said before, finances must be maintained and other reserve funds must be available for emergencies so that our steps can be taken into account. The front is much better.

It's important that whatever financial source we get, we must be able to share it with others so that we don't burden other matters, this needs to be percentaged and our life adjustments must be regulated properly so we can invest in higher Bitcoins but that's My assumption is to manage as well as possible what we do for the long term for the next 4-5 years.

I think we already understand how the emergency fund that is backed up is indeed important and has been prepared but we are more focused on future investments which I think will be more effective, let's say we choose Bitcoin and eliminate shitcoins it will not be the main thing except Bitcoin then I need to know more about this, how about we can do this without any complaints in the sense that we focus more on Bitcoin and don't choose other coins even though some say altcoin season then I don't need it.

DCA, Buy Dips, extra money added to the investment (Bitcoin), maybe I did, need a lot of Bitcoin while the price is cheap.

[Inwestour]

We must understand our existence and never compare it with other circumstances. Of course, all of them are different in terms of what they do, we often hear other people's advice to buy bitcoin under any circumstances but we must know how we are about adjusting spending money to Bitcoin how much we can do it in terms of whether it is slowly buying every time we have money, or regularly weekly or monthly or buying once and storing it regardless of our abilities and in previous experience, but in essence we already know about the risks involved. faced, including at the time of the bear market.

Maybe most people buy bitcoins from financial income every month, therefore there must be adjustments from other fees and also to bitcoin investments, basically we have to be able to develop a strategy that we understand while we can, whether it's buying all the time or in a downturn it's up to the important experience to make us a good pattern in minimizing other urgent situations.

During a longer wait (eg 5 years) we have to be able to get through it, but sometimes it's difficult what happens later, but that's as said before, finances must be maintained and other reserve funds must be available for emergencies so that our steps can be taken into account. The front is much better.

In order to maintain financial stability, of course, you should not leave the main job which is the source of money for yourself.

I am a proponent of buying bitcoin every time I have the opportunity, but I have never advised anyone to ever do the same. Because what is good for me may be bad for others. Moreover, in addition to this, I have a reserve of money that serves as a safety net for me in case of unforeseen circumstances. And someone else may not take my advice correctly and start buying bitcoin with all the money they have. But in life, surprises can happen and money may be needed to solve various problems, so they will have to sell their coins, sometimes at a lower price than they bought, and this will lead to a loss of money and, as a result, to their discontent. Therefore, I refrain from any advice, especially financial.

That's right, it's not worth leaving work now, I would say that now you need to try to earn as much as possible in order to invest now, when the market is in decline.

[Kemarit]

We must understand our existence and never compare it with other circumstances. Of course, all of them are different in terms of what they do, we often hear other people's advice to buy bitcoin under any circumstances but we must know how we are about adjusting spending money to Bitcoin how much we can do it in terms of whether it is slowly buying every time we have money, or regularly weekly or monthly or buying once and storing it regardless of our abilities and in previous experience, but in essence we already know about the risks involved. faced, including at the time of the bear market.

Maybe most people buy bitcoins from financial income every month, therefore there must be adjustments from other fees and also to bitcoin investments, basically we have to be able to develop a strategy that we understand while we can, whether it's buying all the time or in a downturn it's up to the important experience to make us a good pattern in minimizing other urgent situations.

During a longer wait (eg 5 years) we have to be able to get through it, but sometimes it's difficult what happens later, but that's as said before, finances must be maintained and other reserve funds must be available for emergencies so that our steps can be taken into account. The front is much better.

In order to maintain financial stability, of course, you should not leave the main job which is the source of money for yourself.

I am a proponent of buying bitcoin every time I have the opportunity, but I have never advised anyone to ever do the same. Because what is good for me may be bad for others. Moreover, in addition to this, I have a reserve of money that serves as a safety net for me in case of unforeseen circumstances. And someone else may not take my advice correctly and start buying bitcoin with all the money they have. But in life, surprises can happen and money may be needed to solve various problems, so they will have to sell their coins, sometimes at a lower price than they bought, and this will lead to a loss of money and, as a result, to their discontent. Therefore, I refrain from any advice, especially financial.

Or you can best tell them to invest what you can afford to lose. And it's good that you have spread your wealth, again the old saying that don't put all your eggs in one basket. We all do have to be prepared for the worst, specially if you are not getting younger anymore and if you have mouth to feed. But in any case, specially for those who have experience the cycle of bitcoin or crypto, there are risk involved by the end result will be very much worth after the full cycle have been met. And it's all about the timing, when to invest and when to get out to maximized that 4 year cycle that we have.

[Bazzu]

Nobody knows for sure if history will repeat itself from here on out and it is hard to predict what the future holds, but be advised that speculation is high at the moment and volatility is expected to remain relatively high for some time yet. Since this is a long-term investment, I like to think that a down year or two is not ever the end of the world. I take this view because I believe in the long-term outlook of bitcoin.

yes, that's the way it is,, in fact we will not know how bitcoin will be priced in the future, but most people have a positive view of bitcoin, and many believe bitcoin in the future will be more expensive. and many also speculate that bitcoin in the future will be high in price. yes,,, we'll see the fate of bitcoin prices for the future.

[jaberwock]

What happens is that seeing bitcoin as cyclical for me is like seeing it as a pattern that repeats itself and at a certain point there is a pattern, but for me there is a pattern that is not only repeated in Bitcoin but in the entire speculative market, which is Accumulation and Distribution, what sometimes repeats itself or not according to the circumstances is the bullish trend, or the bearish trend, or the re-accumulation, or re-distribution, that is where everything changes, if we see it from that point By sight, I think it is a cyclical pattern, but at this time it is very difficult to determine, due to the number of fundamentals that do not allow a pattern to be established, or something similar.

I agree that it’s going to be not that easy to determine what is going to happen and when it is going to happen, but I am pretty sure that it’s going to make a big change for sure, it’s not going to be as easy as just waiting for it to drop, buy, and then sell when it goes up.

I mean technically it is exactly that, but it is not easy to know how to find the bottom, so sometimes you buy as it hits the bottom and turns out there is even lower prices and lower and lower, so it’s going to be hard to find the bottom, and when it starts to go up is not known, sometimes it does it right away, and sometimes it's not going to happen for a long time, who knows? It’s not easy.

[landheer]

Thank you for the reminder of the market and advise giving to bitcoiners. It is a good idea to hodle bitcoin in the bear market and also buying bitcoin in the bear market is very good but how many people can do that without fear. As it is now many people are even afraid of the bear market because it is overdue. When the bearish became unbearable people would start to withdraw their funds to USD to and watch the price from there. And when the price gradually goes up they would buy BTC again.

yes,,, and usually the one who is always full of fear when buying and during a bear market is a beginner, because I have experienced something like that before.
but I always learn from experience until I finally understand about the bitcoin cycle. so the point is if you invest in bitcoin never be afraid, as long as we invest using idle money.

[JayJuanGee]

Thank you for the reminder of the market and advise giving to bitcoiners. It is a good idea to hodle bitcoin in the bear market and also buying bitcoin in the bear market is very good but how many people can do that without fear. As it is now many people are even afraid of the bear market because it is overdue. When the bearish became unbearable people would start to withdraw their funds to USD to and watch the price from there. And when the price gradually goes up they would buy BTC again.

yes,,, and usually the one who is always full of fear when buying and during a bear market is a beginner, because I have experienced something like that before.
but I always learn from experience until I finally understand about the bitcoin cycle. so the point is if you invest in bitcoin never be afraid, as long as we invest using idle money.

You seem to be describing a situation about position size, landheer.  In essence, if we are wanting to invest into something but were are feeling fear about it, then we may well have to figure out what an appropriate position size might be in order to not feel so much fear.  Let's say that we have projected out our expenses, and we have figured that we have about $1,200 that we will be able to invest over the next 6 months into bitcoin.  Of course, we are not completely sure but we did our best to project out our cashflow, our expenses and to account for variabilties that might involve things that come up along the way, too.

So we could take and invest the whole $1,200 and invest it into bitcoin and then have no money left to invest for the next 6 months... and that is a choice. 

We could also divide it into three parts.  Invest $400 right away, set aside another $400 for buying on dips and then DCA with the remainder $400.  None of these choices are easy, but they are the kinds of choices that we have to make if we want to get some kinds of a stake into bitcoin rather than doing nothing.. and we should be able to figure out a strategy to attempt to moderate the level of fear that we have while realizing that no matter what we do, we are not going to completely be able to remove ourself from having some feelings of fear.

[KaliLinux]

The common mistake is when someone checked its bitcoin price in fiat value and see it decreased which could create panic and selling. That is why I like to use a kind of wallet that will not estimate the value for me.l in fiat so I can just hold it.

Better to just hold. Best time to buy, it has been bears since many months ago. Bears will become later the bulls and more people will buy. All is going to result to another bull market. Certainly.

I like people that have lost but not sell, they are not actually losses if they do not sell. They can wait and see the bull market again. All-time-high is just certain.

I agree and even aside from trying to hide the Fiat value of your wallet, I personally for the first time in my crypto history did not feel any form of panic in this bear market and I am sorry to say, was actually hoping to see some more downward movement because I wanted to get some cheaper Sats still . Anyways, I know this is just a phase of the market, I missed it back after ATH of 2017 but I understand the market better now with no pressure at all.

[Inwestour]

Or you can best tell them to invest what you can afford to lose. And it's good that you have spread your wealth, again the old saying that don't put all your eggs in one basket. We all do have to be prepared for the worst, specially if you are not getting younger anymore and if you have mouth to feed. But in any case, specially for those who have experience the cycle of bitcoin or crypto, there are risk involved by the end result will be very much worth after the full cycle have been met. And it's all about the timing, when to invest and when to get out to maximized that 4 year cycle that we have.

By the way, the question regarding the sale on the new ATH is still open for me. I can’t decide if it makes sense to sell, can I determine the maximum price level that Bitcoin will reach in a new bull market, or will I sell too early and the price will rise very significantly and I will lose most of the profits? Maybe when the price reaches new heights there is no point in selling, but at the same time there is no point in buying at this time. That is, during this period, we should just follow the market and rejoice at how our coins are getting more expensive, but it will only make sense to buy again when the market returns to the bear market phase again.

This question is too difficult for me, because here you need to be a very good analyst who can determine when the moment has come when it is worth selling. Buying is easier at the moment because we are in a bear market now and the price has dropped a lot. I do not rule out that it may fall even lower, but for me it will not be a problem, I will buy more. But whether I will sell in a bull market, I don't know yet. Here I would like to find and read experienced members of the forum who have gone through the cycles more than once and have experience of whether it is necessary to sell bitcoin on bullish cycles, or just keep holding.

You seem to be describing a situation about position size, landheer.  In essence, if we are wanting to invest into something but were are feeling fear about it, then we may well have to figure out what an appropriate position size might be in order to not feel so much fear.  Let's say that we have projected out our expenses, and we have figured that we have about $1,200 that we will be able to invest over the next 6 months into bitcoin.  Of course, we are not completely sure but we did our best to project out our cashflow, our expenses and to account for variabilties that might involve things that come up along the way, too.

So we could take and invest the whole $1,200 and invest it into bitcoin and then have no money left to invest for the next 6 months... and that is a choice. 

We could also divide it into three parts.  Invest $400 right away, set aside another $400 for buying on dips and then DCA with the remainder $400.  None of these choices are easy, but they are the kinds of choices that we have to make if we want to get some kinds of a stake into bitcoin rather than doing nothing.. and we should be able to figure out a strategy to attempt to moderate the level of fear that we have while realizing that no matter what we do, we are not going to completely be able to remove ourself from having some feelings of fear.

Very good thoughts! I realized that I need to leave part of the savings for buying on dips. Before that, I always bought immediately as soon as I received the money, but I faced a situation several times when I bought but soon there was a fall and it was a little upset because I understood that I could buy a little more bitcoin. Then the price recovered and I bought again when I got paid. Now I am dividing the money set aside for investment into two parts, I buy on half at once, and I keep another for buying on dips. I like this strategy better, maybe with my small amount of investment I don't get much benefit, but this seems to me a smarter investment. All comes with experience.

[JayJuanGee]

Or you can best tell them to invest what you can afford to lose. And it's good that you have spread your wealth, again the old saying that don't put all your eggs in one basket. We all do have to be prepared for the worst, specially if you are not getting younger anymore and if you have mouth to feed. But in any case, specially for those who have experience the cycle of bitcoin or crypto, there are risk involved by the end result will be very much worth after the full cycle have been met. And it's all about the timing, when to invest and when to get out to maximized that 4 year cycle that we have.

By the way, the question regarding the sale on the new ATH is still open for me. I can’t decide if it makes sense to sell, can I determine the maximum price level that Bitcoin will reach in a new bull market, or will I sell too early and the price will rise very significantly and I will lose most of the profits? Maybe when the price reaches new heights there is no point in selling, but at the same time there is no point in buying at this time. That is, during this period, we should just follow the market and rejoice at how our coins are getting more expensive, but it will only make sense to buy again when the market returns to the bear market phase again.

This question is too difficult for me, because here you need to be a very good analyst who can determine when the moment has come when it is worth selling. Buying is easier at the moment because we are in a bear market now and the price has dropped a lot. I do not rule out that it may fall even lower, but for me it will not be a problem, I will buy more. But whether I will sell in a bull market, I don't know yet. Here I would like to find and read experienced members of the forum who have gone through the cycles more than once and have experience of whether it is necessary to sell bitcoin on bullish cycles, or just keep holding.

Depending how far along you are in your BTC accumulation, so long as you are not super early, you will likely feel better if you pick certain price points to sell small amounts of bitcoin on the way up.  I don't recommend selling BTC as a way to accumulate more BTC, but I do recommend it once you have reached a decently high level of BTC accumulation (within standards that you have already set for yourself)

On the other hand, let's say that you have around 5 years or less in bitcoin (I am using your forum registration date as an example Inwestour), and you feel that you have underinvested into bitcoin, so you are worried that you might have squandered some of your time to accumulate bitcoin, so in that sense you might look at your about 5 year history in bitcoin and see that on average you had invested about $50 per week into bitcoin, which only got you invested around $13k and with about 1.25 bitcoins.

In looking back at your history and your cashflow and your expenses - amongst other things, you realize that you could have invested way more than you had invested, and maybe you could have invested $100 or more per week, which would have given you twice as many bitcoin than what you had ended up accumulating.

So, some of this will depend on your personal goals and also what you expect your cost of living to be in terms of how many bitcoin you feel that you need to accumulate in order to feel comfortable.  If you set your goal at reaching 5 bitcoin (or maybe you price the value in dollars in terms of whether you reached your goal), but based on bitcoin's ongoing volatility, it is quite difficult to really get a good grasp on how many bitcoin you might feel that you need to accumulate before you can start to relax... or to feel that you have reached or exceeded your goal in such a way that you can shave off some of your bitcoin as the price goes up and you can establish various price points and how much you might sell at each price point. 

You could establish that your goal is to reach 5 bitcoin and you are not going to necessarily want to sell any until you have reached or exceeded that quantity of accumulation. 

I do not believe in selling to accumulate more BTC, but I do believe in selling in order to cause some psychological security in case the price falls, and that would usually mean just shaving of some BTC as the price goes up, so maybe every time the BTC price doubles from a certain point, I might be willing to shave off up to 10%.. perhaps?
You can figure out a formula that works for you in terms of points in which you might feel comfortable to shave off a bit of your bitcoin in case the price goes down, but if it does not go down, you do not regret shaving off some of your BTC at that price point (which again means not shaving off very much). 

On the other hand, some guys who do not shave off any BTC during the price rises, regret that they had not shaved off any BTC during the price rises.. but it is difficult to figure out in advance, even if you feel that you figured out a shaving off BTC formula that you believe works for you.

Here's another post in January that I did on the shaving off of BTC topic in which I referenced
(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan thread.

You seem to be describing a situation about position size, landheer.  In essence, if we are wanting to invest into something but were are feeling fear about it, then we may well have to figure out what an appropriate position size might be in order to not feel so much fear.  Let's say that we have projected out our expenses, and we have figured that we have about $1,200 that we will be able to invest over the next 6 months into bitcoin.  Of course, we are not completely sure but we did our best to project out our cashflow, our expenses and to account for variabilties that might involve things that come up along the way, too.

So we could take and invest the whole $1,200 and invest it into bitcoin and then have no money left to invest for the next 6 months... and that is a choice. 

We could also divide it into three parts.  Invest $400 right away, set aside another $400 for buying on dips and then DCA with the remainder $400.  None of these choices are easy, but they are the kinds of choices that we have to make if we want to get some kinds of a stake into bitcoin rather than doing nothing.. and we should be able to figure out a strategy to attempt to moderate the level of fear that we have while realizing that no matter what we do, we are not going to completely be able to remove ourself from having some feelings of fear.

Very good thoughts! I realized that I need to leave part of the savings for buying on dips. Before that, I always bought immediately as soon as I received the money, but I faced a situation several times when I bought but soon there was a fall and it was a little upset because I understood that I could buy a little more bitcoin. Then the price recovered and I bought again when I got paid. Now I am dividing the money set aside for investment into two parts, I buy on half at once, and I keep another for buying on dips. I like this strategy better, maybe with my small amount of investment I don't get much benefit, but this seems to me a smarter investment. All comes with experience.

Yep.. In the end, you may not get very much benefit from holding back some of your fiat, but it will make you feel better if the BTC price falls more and you have not run out of cash.

I always figure that the value of my BTC stash goes down way more than any benefit that I get from buying more BTC, but it still feels good to be able to buy some, even if overall your BTC portfolio is losing more value than the amount of your benefit (which with the passage of more time should likely ONLY be a fraction of the size of your BTC holdings)..

So your bitcoin holdings keep going up, and since you are valuing your wealth in the accumulation of bitcoin, your networth goes up way more when the BTC price goes up as compared to when it goes down - and with the passage of time you should be able to build your BTC stash (and overall investment portfolio) in such a way that you are not psychologically damaged from your networth going down in value based on BTC prices going down.

[Inwestour]

Depending how far along you are in your BTC accumulation, so long as you are not super early, you will likely feel better if you pick certain price points to sell small amounts of bitcoin on the way up.  I don't recommend selling BTC as a way to accumulate more BTC, but I do recommend it once you have reached a decently high level of BTC accumulation (within standards that you have already set for yourself)

On the other hand, let's say that you have around 5 years or less in bitcoin (I am using your forum registration date as an example Inwestour), and you feel that you have underinvested into bitcoin, so you are worried that you might have squandered some of your time to accumulate bitcoin, so in that sense you might look at your about 5 year history in bitcoin and see that on average you had invested about $50 per week into bitcoin, which only got you invested around $13k and with about 1.25 bitcoins.

In looking back at your history and your cashflow and your expenses - amongst other things, you realize that you could have invested way more than you had invested, and maybe you could have invested $100 or more per week, which would have given you twice as many bitcoin than what you had ended up accumulating.

So, some of this will depend on your personal goals and also what you expect your cost of living to be in terms of how many bitcoin you feel that you need to accumulate in order to feel comfortable.  If you set your goal at reaching 5 bitcoin (or maybe you price the value in dollars in terms of whether you reached your goal), but based on bitcoin's ongoing volatility, it is quite difficult to really get a good grasp on how many bitcoin you might feel that you need to accumulate before you can start to relax... or to feel that you have reached or exceeded your goal in such a way that you can shave off some of your bitcoin as the price goes up and you can establish various price points and how much you might sell at each price point. 

You could establish that your goal is to reach 5 bitcoin and you are not going to necessarily want to sell any until you have reached or exceeded that quantity of accumulation. 

I do not believe in selling to accumulate more BTC, but I do believe in selling in order to cause some psychological security in case the price falls, and that would usually mean just shaving of some BTC as the price goes up, so maybe every time the BTC price doubles from a certain point, I might be willing to shave off up to 10%.. perhaps?
You can figure out a formula that works for you in terms of points in which you might feel comfortable to shave off a bit of your bitcoin in case the price goes down, but if it does not go down, you do not regret shaving off some of your BTC at that price point (which again means not shaving off very much). 

On the other hand, some guys who do not shave off any BTC during the price rises, regret that they had not shaved off any BTC during the price rises.. but it is difficult to figure out in advance, even if you feel that you figured out a shaving off BTC formula that you believe works for you.

Here's another post in January that I did on the shaving off of BTC topic in which I referenced
(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan thread.

I had to spend a lot of time to come to the conclusion that only investing in bitcoin can be reliable, those in which I can be sure. Before that, when I started getting interested in crypto, I turned my attention to altcoins, and I ended up making too many big mistakes that left me without bitcoin. Some time after that, I got frustrated and forget about crypto. Then I started accumulated savings, and after the bear market came the bull market, I saw how bitcoin rose and realized what a mistake I made. Since the beginning of this year, I have decided that I will invest in bitcoin, so I do not have large investments, but I am determined to achieve them. For the time being, I do not plan to sell bitcoin when it rises, I plan that this will be my long-term investment with further accumulation. And probably at this stage there is no point in this seling, because due to the small amount of my investment, I will not even be able to get a significant improvement. But at the same time, there is a risk of selling too early and missing out on growth. We can assume that I figured out this issue, thanks for the help!

Now I am trying to work harder to buy more bitcoin while we are in a bear market. It is a pity that I did not have this understanding before, when the price was much lower. But I confess that at that time I had doubts whether bitcoin could rise again. Now I have no such doubts.

[nara1892]

Just another reminder that the bitcoin market is cyclical, and everything that we are seeing with bitcoin now has already happened before and the necessary lessons should be learned

There have been times of rise and fall of bitcoin price but to those that are experienced enough they will understand that the volatile bitcoin price only works with it demand and supply to make the economy profitable for those coming in and those selling off,  with much understanding, an average bitcoin investors should know that holding is very important during massive fall but in it all, there's always a time to regain back every losses during all time high provided that it was bought when dip and holdl till ATH.

Bitcoin will always be bitcoin with price movements that are sometimes mentally draining. But that's where the real opportunity should really be used. But some people see this upside down especially those who are too frightened when the bitcoin price drops. This is the mentality that investors don't have, they will worry and keep asking where the bitcoin price will go. They never learned from the previous year, which if seen there is a similar cycle that eventually bitcoin will find ATH again.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I had to spend a lot of time to come to the conclusion that only investing in bitcoin can be reliable, those in which I can be sure. Before that, when I started getting interested in crypto, I turned my attention to altcoins,

A lot of people make that mistake - even very smart people.  There is a kind of temptation and a lure, and there are also misinformation talking points that play upon the inclinations that people have to invest into inferior products (as compared with bitcoin).  Bitcoiners could beat you with all the logic and reason in the world, and it is quite likely that you will still be lured in that shitcoin direction.  I am not really sure what is the solution, even though we have to recognize that people have to come to the logic of bitcoin at their own pace - and sometimes there could be some information that might get them to avoid or minimize such shitcoining, so I would not suggest that it is totally futile to try to present information to newbies to help them to have some shitcoin skepticisms.

and I ended up making too many big mistakes that left me without bitcoin.

Yes.. That's too bad.   Sometimes people will invest a bit of a side in bitcoin, but there can be a kind of building up of increased and increased gravitation of value into the things that are not really retaining value.  Sometimes people do not even get involved in shitcoins, but they gravitate towards more and more trading and then pretty soon they have traded away any stash in bitcoin that they had built.

Some time after that, I got frustrated and forget about crypto.

Not making progress can cause giving up.  Sometimes we see members who sold their bitcoin too early (and sometimes they even make a profit), and then they had sold on the premise that they would buy back lower.. but then the BTC price does not go "low enough" below their sell point, and they never end up getting back into bitcoin because they psychologically prevent themselves from getting back in by getting too caught up on the idea that they have to buy lower than a certain price that they have placed in their head.

Then I started accumulated savings, and after the bear market came the bull market, I saw how bitcoin rose and realized what a mistake I made. Since the beginning of this year, I have decided that I will invest in bitcoin, so I do not have large investments, but I am determined to achieve them.

Ok.  Well maybe this time around you can get into a more solid plan that will help you into being more reasonable with your approach in terms of focusing on accumulating bitcoin or some kind of a strategy that helps to make you feel that you are making progress.  

Frequently, there is a need to be careful not to place unrealistic time frames on yourself because the reality of the matter is that many successful ways of building wealth take a decent amount of time to play out and to reach success.  So for example you are likely going to continue to have ups and downs in the value of your investment portfolio, even if you are building and investing in the right things, but after many years, (and even cycles), the principle is likely to start to compound upon itself, but if you never are able to build up your principle, then you are always spinning your wheels because you end up getting in and out of your investment and even screwing around in ways that are not sufficiently focused on ongoing accumulation that may well take 4-10 years or longer to really start to show compounding of value effects.

For the time being, I do not plan to sell bitcoin when it rises, I plan that this will be my long-term investment with further accumulation.

Yes.. That sounds good.  You might be able to see how your BTC is stacking up and to figure out if you might need to adjust your tentative plan, but it is good to attampt to try to figure out a tentative plan and you can even go through scenarios in which you might be able to see how your investment amount might change over time and then to be able to attempt to project out where you might be at in your investment value at various points to figure out if it might be beneficial to shave off small portions of BTC at certain price points.

Usually, you can project out a value increasing trajectory and you can also project out how you anticipate that it might change within a time frame, but you are not very likely to be able to match any kind of value increasing trajectory with a timeline that could happen quickly or it could take way more time than you expected for it to play out.. so you might have a tentative idea that your BTC might go up in value 10% per year.. and then project it out.. but if you have that in an Excel spreadsheet, you can have your 10% be a reference cell or once you have one scenario projected out, you could cut and paste and then change one or two variables in order to see how changing 10% to 5% or changing it to 20% ends up changing the outcomes so you may well end up looking at a variety of scenarios that show better cases scenarios and worse case scenarios in order to attempt to project in a way that you are seeing how you could create a plan that attempts to account for the various kinds of scenarios playing out and at the same time realizing that as a scenario plays out, you get more locked into that scenario so your future projections that you make at the later date end up being based on what actually happened rather than what you expected might happen.

And probably at this stage there is no point in this seling, because due to the small amount of my investment, I will not even be able to get a significant improvement. But at the same time, there is a risk of selling too early and missing out on growth. We can assume that I figured out this issue, thanks for the help!

I have more than 30 years of practicing investing and building up my investment portfolio, and in late 2013 when I got into bitcoin, even though I had already built up a decent investment portfolio, I had made a lot of mistakes in my investment portfolio in earlier years because one thing that tends to happen is that your investment portfolio might start to have values that are several times your annual income, so you get tempted to dip into it for investment into other things or maybe even for the purpose of consumption (buying something nice for yourself).

Let's say that you make $30k per year, and so you are aggressively investing with nearly 20% of your salary (would be $6k per year), and after 5 years, you have invested as much as your annual salary, and if your investment had not really gone up in value very much (including accounting for changes in the value of your own cost of living), maybe you would not be very tempted to dip into your investment if it largely has not appreciated very much in value.  

Yet, we can see from the earlier example that I had given you in regards to DCA investing into bitcoin, you can see that if you had invested around $30k into bitcoin over the past 5 years, then currently you would have accumulated around 2.83 BTC ($55k-ish at today's prices)... so perhaps if you end up having 2x value you would be more tempted to figure out if there might be some better places to use that value whether you would be wanting to invest into other things or wanting to use some or all of that value to consume with it.

People will frequently get tempted to dip into their investments before the investment has had sufficient opportunties to compound upon itself, especially when the amounts are available to them to be able to cash out some or all of it, and another thing might be that when you started to invest, you were not really too worried about the security of your investment, but as your investment increases in value, you have to take more serious measures to protect it or to make sure that it is NOT overly vulnerable.

Now I am trying to work harder to buy more bitcoin while we are in a bear market. It is a pity that I did not have this understanding before, when the price was much lower. But I confess that at that time I had doubts whether bitcoin could rise again. Now I have no such doubts.

Being aggressive in your accumulation can end up paying off... and I had used the example before of someone who had been investing $10 per week into bitcoin for the past 9 years, would still have a decent stash of BTC right now, but the one who was more aggressive and invested $100 per week would be 10x better off... So it can be good to be aggressive as long as you are not gambling or dipping into your living expenses.. because you have to make sure that you are not forced to sell any BTC at a time that is other than your own choosing.. so if an emergency comes up, hopefully you have ways to take care of the emergency without having to dip into your BTC.

[Inwestour]

A lot of people make that mistake - even very smart people.  There is a kind of temptation and a lure, and there are also misinformation talking points that play upon the inclinations that people have to invest into inferior products (as compared with bitcoin).  Bitcoiners could beat you with all the logic and reason in the world, and it is quite likely that you will still be lured in that shitcoin direction.  I am not really sure what is the solution, even though we have to recognize that people have to come to the logic of bitcoin at their own pace - and sometimes there could be some information that might get them to avoid or minimize such shitcoining, so I would not suggest that it is totally futile to try to present information to newbies to help them to have some shitcoin skepticisms.

In the case of shitcoins, there is a misconception that if a shitcoin is worth 5 cents, then it is easier for it to make x2 and reach the price of 10 cents (and sometimes it does happen), than for bitcoin to make x2 from the price of 20k and reach 40k. An illusion that serves as a trap for many beginners.

Not making progress can cause giving up.  Sometimes we see members who sold their bitcoin too early (and sometimes they even make a profit), and then they had sold on the premise that they would buy back lower.. but then the BTC price does not go "low enough" below their sell point, and they never end up getting back into bitcoin because they psychologically prevent themselves from getting back in by getting too caught up on the idea that they have to buy lower than a certain price that they have placed in their head.
 

I held altcoins and wanted to sell for bitcoins when they reached the prices that I expected, but this did not happen, I became a holder of shitcoins and almost lost everything. Too expensive and stupid lesson.

Frequently, there is a need to be careful not to place unrealistic time frames on yourself because the reality of the matter is that many successful ways of building wealth take a decent amount of time to play out and to reach success.  So for example you are likely going to continue to have ups and downs in the value of your investment portfolio, even if you are building and investing in the right things, but after many years, (and even cycles), the principle is likely to start to compound upon itself, but if you never are able to build up your principle, then you are always spinning your wheels because you end up getting in and out of your investment and even screwing around in ways that are not sufficiently focused on ongoing accumulation that may well take 4-10 years or longer to really start to show compounding of value effects.

I am not building false illusions and I understand that it will not be fast, but now I understand a lot, I understand that the market moves in cycles, that the cycles are long enough. Now the most important thing is that when I understand all this, that nothing globally has changed so that the cyclicity is preserved, otherwise it can be confusing.

I have more than 30 years of practicing investing and building up my investment portfolio, and in late 2013 when I got into bitcoin, even though I had already built up a decent investment portfolio, I had made a lot of mistakes in my investment portfolio in earlier years because one thing that tends to happen is that your investment portfolio might start to have values that are several times your annual income, so you get tempted to dip into it for investment into other things or maybe even for the purpose of consumption (buying something nice for yourself).

Let's say that you make $30k per year, and so you are aggressively investing with nearly 20% of your salary (would be $6k per year), and after 5 years, you have invested as much as your annual salary, and if your investment had not really gone up in value very much (including accounting for changes in the value of your own cost of living), maybe you would not be very tempted to dip into your investment if it largely has not appreciated very much in value.  

Yet, we can see from the earlier example that I had given you in regards to DCA investing into bitcoin, you can see that if you had invested around $30k into bitcoin over the past 5 years, then currently you would have accumulated around 2.83 BTC ($55k-ish at today's prices)... so perhaps if you end up having 2x value you would be more tempted to figure out if there might be some better places to use that value whether you would be wanting to invest into other things or wanting to use some or all of that value to consume with it.

People will frequently get tempted to dip into their investments before the investment has had sufficient opportunties to compound upon itself, especially when the amounts are available to them to be able to cash out some or all of it, and another thing might be that when you started to invest, you were not really too worried about the security of your investment, but as your investment increases in value, you have to take more serious measures to protect it or to make sure that it is NOT overly vulnerable.

Being aggressive in your accumulation can end up paying off... and I had used the example before of someone who had been investing $10 per week into bitcoin for the past 9 years, would still have a decent stash of BTC right now, but the one who was more aggressive and invested $100 per week would be 10x better off... So it can be good to be aggressive as long as you are not gambling or dipping into your living expenses.. because you have to make sure that you are not forced to sell any BTC at a time that is other than your own choosing.. so if an emergency comes up, hopefully you have ways to take care of the emergency without having to dip into your BTC.

I have a cash reserve that I just keep for emergencies, so I'm not going to sell my bitcoins. Now that the bear market is in, I try to stick to aggressive investing. I am diligent and disciplined enough, so I think that I will succeed this time. I saved well last time, but the problem was that I focused my attention on shitcoins and did not sell them in time. Now I only invest in bitcoin, so I hope that I will have a much better chance of success!