The Economist: 335000 people could "freeze to death" in Europe

[pooya87]

As I've been saying for the past year, the world has been dealing with 4 major conflicts:
1) Economic war
2) Energy war
3) Food war
4) Armed war between NATO and Russia and possibly China and others in the near future

The most serious ones are the first three that even have more casualties!
The economic war has already led to high inflation and recession; US keeps printing more money causing inflation but they export most of it to other countries while half the world is trying to dump US dollar and move to a parallel economy. The incompetent EU governments keep printing more money to throw at the inflation which makes it even worse. They even increase interest rates that has diminishing effects on the inflation but increasing effects on recession.

On top of that we have the energy war that is increasing price of energy, to which the EU governments print more money to give to energy companies to artificially keep the price low for home users while shutting down big industries that puts hundreds of thousands out of work.

One of the results of all this crisis and incompetence is going to be the high increase in mortality rate in Europe. With a number that is expected to be surprisingly higher than the total number of casualties in Ukraine-Russian war!

The relationship between energy prices and winter deaths could change this year. But if past patterns persist, current electricity prices would drive deaths above the historical average even in the mildest winter.

Exact mortality totals still depend on other factors, particularly temperature. In a mild winter, the increase in deaths might be limited to 32,000 above the historical average (accounting for changes in population). A harsh winter could cost a total of 335,000 extra lives.

average residential European gas and electricity costs are 144% and 78% above the figures for 2000-19.

High fuel prices can exacerbate the effect of low temperatures on deaths, by deterring people from using heat and raising their exposure to cold. Given average weather, the model finds that a 10% rise in electricity prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths, though this number is greater in cold weeks and smaller in mild ones. An academic study of American data in 2019 produced a similar estimate.

The rise in inflation-adjusted electricity costs since 2020 is 60% greater than the gap between the highest and lowest prices in 2000-19. As a result, the relationship between energy costs and deaths could behave differently this year than it has in the past. In cases like Italy’s, where electricity costs are up nearly 200% since 2020, extrapolating a linear relationship yields extremely high death estimates.

P.S. Be careful of the Flu Pandemic which is mentioned in this article but I haven't really seen covered in mainstream media as a serious threat. A doctor I consulted with explains that because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that people were wearing masks and were generally more careful over the past couple of years, the public resistance to viruses from common cold to flu has decreased which is why we are currently seeing a very high increase in number of flu patients that can end up having more mortality rate in winter.

[Lucius]

Regardless of everything you stated in your post, I think the title is exaggerated in every sense because 335 thousand people is simply too big a number, especially if it only refers to the EU. I think that all EU countries have prepared more or less well for this winter, that there is enough gas and that many measures have been taken so that everyone can have heating this winter.

It has already been mentioned many times that the winter is quite mild in most of the EU, and I have to admit that I haven't seen real snow in years, and that I spend much less on heating than I did 5 or 10 years ago. I believe that articles like this are just part of the propaganda war being waged from Russia, because if they can't destroy us like Ukrainians, they are trying to frighten us in this way in order to turn part of the EU public to their side.

Europe has survived much worse situations, and I'm sure it will survive this one too - and when this winter is over, we can start this topic again and see if these predictions were correct or if someone is just playing with numbers.

[Kakmakr]

#pooya87 ... you really opened my eyes to something that I never even thought about before. It is incredible to see how many people die from this every year. https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/number-of-fatalities-due-to

" About 200,000 such deaths occur in all of Europe each year, with mortality increasing by 1.5 percent for every 1-degree Celsius decrease. " Source - https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3602202-europeans-risk-death-by-cold-for-green-folly-and-we-could-be-next/

I live in a country with warmer temperatures and our Winters are not very cold.... so it's not an big issue here. Thank you for posting this, because the Oil & Gas restrictions are definitely going to increase these fatalities.

[o48o]

-cut-
I live in a country with warmer temperatures and our Winters are not very cold.... so it's not an big issue here. Thank you for posting this, because the Oil & Gas restrictions are definitely going to increase these fatalities.

And with countries that have sometimes very cold winters have better thermal isolation on houses, like in here in finland triple glasses everywhere on windows etc.
We have already very much prepared for winter. There might be some controlled and scheduled blackouts, but nothing we couldn't survive. We know what cold is and how to combat against that.

Country i would be most worried about is Germany, but that's most likely comes to just one winter of high energy bills. As if Russia fails to use winter as an edge and turning point for this war, Putin most likely won't be a problem after next year and even whole Russia could fall apart.

[Flexystar]

Those are pretty bad ass numbers. I can’t believe what’s happening in the world right now. I think one pandemic that came in like hell and now we are looking at the post pandemic results and how we are so naive in tackling them. After pandemic when war broke out between NATO and Russia it was another overnight worst event that aggregated the whole economic crisis scenario. It’s unimaginable how things go escalated down to the crisis like poor management of winter preparation. All this because of recession and no money left in circulation (virtually speaking). Hope that Europe Do not suffer like this and please no other pandemic. This time I can’t survive for sure.

[Fortify]

As I've been saying for the past year, the world has been dealing with 4 major conflicts:
1) Economic war
2) Energy war
3) Food war
4) Armed war between NATO and Russia and possibly China and others in the near future

The most serious ones are the first three that even have more casualties!
The economic war has already led to high inflation and recession; US keeps printing more money causing inflation but they export most of it to other countries while half the world is trying to dump US dollar and move to a parallel economy. The incompetent EU governments keep printing more money to throw at the inflation which makes it even worse. They even increase interest rates that has diminishing effects on the inflation but increasing effects on recession.

On top of that we have the energy war that is increasing price of energy, to which the EU governments print more money to give to energy companies to artificially keep the price low for home users while shutting down big industries that puts hundreds of thousands out of work.

One of the results of all this crisis and incompetence is going to be the high increase in mortality rate in Europe. With a number that is expected to be surprisingly higher than the total number of casualties in Ukraine-Russian war!

Talk about over exaggeration and clickbait titles, this is a prime example. Europe is one of the richest places on the planet and is suffering a rather mild winter (even ignoring it's temperate climate in most areas). Just sticking "war" on the end of something doesn't make you a genius. Just look at the "War on Drugs" which has been going for decades and has only gotten worse in all that time, it's a pointless designation. It could actually be a good thing that energy use is lowered, if extraction was lowered too, because climate change is what is really going to screw over the world in the decades to come. Besides that, Europe will definitely be able to cope and it is other nations who end up paying more due to Putin's war that will not be able to manage as well.

[pooya87]

335 thousand people is simply too big a number, especially if it only refers to the EU.

That is worse case scenario according to the article. 335k is also not that big specially for EU if you look at the statistical history. You see the first chart? The grey line is the history (ie. actual mortality in the past because of temperature drops and energy costs) and the red lines are the extrapolation (ie. speculating the future). That chart is also showing a little less than 20% rise. Or in other words it is not like they are saying such mortality rate is going from 0 to 335k, it is predicting it could go from something like 200k-250k to 335k.

I believe that articles like this are just part of the propaganda war being waged from Russia,

Well Russian propaganda comes out of Russian outlets or at least agencies that have ties with the Russians.
The Economist is a British weekly newspaper and the charts and statistics are from European sources: Copernicus; Eurostat; Energie-Control Austria; MEKH; VaasaETT; WHO; RIP.ie; ECDC; government statistics.
So I'm not really sure which one of these sources you think is linked to Russians since if you google any of them they are mostly European agencies or global like WHO.

[Argoo]

I do not think that the given figures have a real justification. Most likely, this is Putin's propaganda. Russia has the ability to bribe politicians and experts in various fields to achieve its desired goals. Now it is Russia that spreads such rumors and tries to intimidate Europe and especially Ukraine. The countries of Europe really prepared for the winter and such a number of deaths simply cannot be in practice.
High mortality can be from the cold in winter in Ukraine, because Russia periodically attacks the energy infrastructure of Ukraine with missiles, trying to deprive the inhabitants of Ukraine of heat, light and water in order to provoke people to protest and demand a truce with Russia. It is unlikely that Putin will succeed. The people of Ukraine are well versed in the current situation and want only the victory of Ukraine and the complete surrender of Russia.

Meanwhile, the Russian occupiers are already dying en masse from the cold in their trenches on the territory of Ukraine. Russia is throwing its soldiers, and especially those recently mobilized, on the front lines without winter clothing and the necessary protection, and therefore their losses now amount to 400-700 people every day.
Today, the latest summary of Russia's losses in the war with Ukraine lay on the table for Putin: in total, about 122,000 people were killed and missing. Of these, 90,138 losses of the regular army, 26,917 losses of the PMC "Wagner" and 5621 losses of the National Guard.
False Putin's propaganda will not work.

[Fiatless]

Although there is no perfect government anywhere I am sure that Europe has some of the best governments that put the welfare of their people first. These statistics might be the worst scenario if the government doesn't take any action. But the European nations have tried as much as possible to ensure that their citizens are not greatly affected by these economic and energy problems. Most European nations have filled up their has and crude oil reserve that can last for many months. Most countries are even subsidizing energy costs and even giving their citizens welfare packages. I would have more concerned if these statistics refer to some emerging nations that have very irresponsible governments that careless about the lives and property of their citizens.

[Balmain]

As I've been saying for the past year, the world has been dealing with 4 major conflicts:
1) Economic war
2) Energy war
3) Food war
4) Armed war between NATO and Russia and possibly China and others in the near future

The most serious ones are the first three that even have more casualties!
The economic war has already led to high inflation and recession; US keeps printing more money causing inflation but they export most of it to other countries while half the world is trying to dump US dollar and move to a parallel economy. The incompetent EU governments keep printing more money to throw at the inflation which makes it even worse. They even increase interest rates that has diminishing effects on the inflation but increasing effects on recession.

On top of that we have the energy war that is increasing price of energy, to which the EU governments print more money to give to energy companies to artificially keep the price low for home users while shutting down big industries that puts hundreds of thousands out of work.

One of the results of all this crisis and incompetence is going to be the high increase in mortality rate in Europe. With a number that is expected to be surprisingly higher than the total number of casualties in Ukraine-Russian war!

Talk about over exaggeration and clickbait titles, this is a prime example. Europe is one of the richest places on the planet and is suffering a rather mild winter (even ignoring it's temperate climate in most areas).

I think it's not all about clickbait, maybe there are some exaggerations, but you're right. It is obvious that there was a war of energy, food and many other things, at the beginning of these were the trade wars between China and the USA, then the pandemic appeared, I don't think it was all random. For now, the weather may be mild in Europe, but we are not fully into winter. Also, Europe may be very rich, but we can say that wealth is on the decline. Inflation hits hard and Europe doesn't have a young population, so a potential energy crisis could cause a lot of deaths. It is necessary to evaluate these data somewhat realistically.

[cabron]

As I've been saying for the past year, the world has been dealing with 4 major conflicts:
1) Economic war
2) Energy war
3) Food war
4) Armed war between NATO and Russia and possibly China and others in the near future

The most serious ones are the first three that even have more casualties!
The economic war has already led to high inflation and recession; US keeps printing more money causing inflation but they export most of it to other countries while half the world is trying to dump US dollar and move to a parallel economy. The incompetent EU governments keep printing more money to throw at the inflation which makes it even worse. They even increase interest rates that has diminishing effects on the inflation but increasing effects on recession.

On top of that we have the energy war that is increasing price of energy, to which the EU governments print more money to give to energy companies to artificially keep the price low for home users while shutting down big industries that puts hundreds of thousands out of work.

One of the results of all this crisis and incompetence is going to be the high increase in mortality rate in Europe. With a number that is expected to be surprisingly higher than the total number of casualties in Ukraine-Russian war!

Talk about over exaggeration and clickbait titles, this is a prime example. Europe is one of the richest places on the planet and is suffering a rather mild winter (even ignoring it's temperate climate in most areas).

I think it's not all about clickbait, maybe there are some exaggerations, but you're right. It is obvious that there was a war of energy, food and many other things, at the beginning of these were the trade wars between China and the USA, then the pandemic appeared, I don't think it was all random. For now, the weather may be mild in Europe, but we are not fully into winter. Also, Europe may be very rich, but we can say that wealth is on the decline. Inflation hits hard and Europe doesn't have a young population, so a potential energy crisis could cause a lot of deaths. It is necessary to evaluate these data somewhat realistically.

Some geopolitical analysts are already saying this is WW3 happening slowly, they are just not calling it ww3 to not cause panic. But obviously, countries are already choosing sides which pooya87 said half the world is abandoning USD. Energy and Economic war affect more than just US, Ukraine, and Russia, halfway around the world are countries with inflation up to 20%.

War with China will be the ultimate. But I think everyone will have to cool thier heads before the red button. We already saw how NATO react after Zelensky invokes Chapter 5 when a missile hits Poland.

[gantez]

As I've been saying for the past year, the world has been dealing with 4 major conflicts:
1) Economic war
2) Energy war
3) Food war

I like the order that you listed the points, I agree with it but maybe a little more to economic war to be together with food war (lol food is very important) not that I like food so much but who can survive without the food ? Nobody can do that for longer time. So economy is part of getting affordable good food. The economy determine the cost of food, if agriculture is having attention that farmers getting loan to buy seed for planting fertilizer very cheap, that will bring price of food to reduce. It is an economic war that we are having because inflation has rise the cost of production and that affect food and standard of living. The government need proper way to plan because covid-19 pandemic is no more the problem facing the world so printing of unnecessary money need to stop. If we have reduce inflation, cost of food will reduce. They working together.

[kryptqnick]

It's important to think about these things, and 32 thousand more deaths than average in the mildest winter is still significant. What the chart doesn't and can't project, though, it how many people will die in Ukraine, as Russia is heavily targeting critical infrastructure which can lead to lack of heating and people freezing because of that. Moreover, I would consider the extra deaths to be due to Russia's war because this is the reason of the energy crisis, after all (as the Economist article also seems to do, by the way). The model is assuming things, though. The article says that normally, energy price changes did not contribute to death changes, but they assume this time will be different because of a huge energy price change. We'll see if that will be true.

[teosanru]

Very good point here. Heating homes and workplaces is very essential for the whole Europe and is infact the thing for which energy is consumed the most with Russia blocking most of the country energy exports due to the ongoing war this is really bound to happen. I don't know what would actually open NATO's eyes and they would eventually stop all this. After this many months I have surely come to know one thing that Russia doesn't wants to Annex and Rule Ukraine it's just wants it's political influence in the region to be supreme and safe from NATO.

[DrBeer]

It is always very funny to observe this kind of selective "concern" of Russians about "freezing Europe" (the trend of 2022, after the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation), concern for potential "frozen" ... But at the same time, a complete disregard for social and humanitarian problems in country!
To understand the cynicism of such statements, it is enough to look at Putin's speech at a meeting with the alleged "mothers of the dead soldiers" who took part in the terrorist war against Ukraine. Do you know what the President of Russia said? Guarantor of constitutional rights, freedoms, and, in theory, the lives of Russians? About the death of more than 80,000 Russian terrorist soldiers, he literally said, "Well, let's look around - we have more deaths from alcoholism and in car accidents. Well, in the end, it's natural, we are all mortal and someday we will die."
If we discard the fakeness of the "meeting" itself (some dummy people), where in the role of "mothers" were identified individuals who are constantly filmed in Putin's "meetings", as "representatives of the people", the fact remains - the president of the country said literally "I sent you to die, and kill others. But that's okay, you would have died anyway, otherwise you fulfilled my wishes." And ... the population of Russia swallowed it! For them, this is also the norm .. But they are very worried about Europeans ... Because there will be no one to sell gas and oil and build another castle to a crazy dictator-terrorist-slave owner

Well, I will reassure the "experiencing" Russians:
1. Winter in the EU will be quite mild
2. The EU has already replaced more than 90% of all gas supplies from the Russian Federation
3. The EU has already replaced the supplier of oil from the Russian Federation
4. Oil "Urals" is flying down for the third day. Russians - stock up on firewood and hats, it will really be hard for you

[pooya87]

War with China will be the ultimate. But I think everyone will have to cool thier heads before the red button. We already saw how NATO react after Zelensky invokes Chapter 5 when a missile hits Poland.

Sadly they don't seem to want to even acknowledge these serious problems let alone want to cool it. I'm afraid there could come a day where we see it's already too late.
Any of the "wars" I mentioned have been denied and are still being denied.

• Everyone (from regular people including those on this forum to the governments and decision makers) denied the food crisis earlier this year when I started that topic in OP. a couple of months later and European Fertilizer Producers announced that they are in a "full-fledged crisis".
  
• Everyone denied the NATO's expansion eastward and a couple of years later we have Russia fighting NATO in Ukraine. They are denying the US intervention in Taiwan and we could soon see the same there too.
• Everyone denied the inflation caused by reckless money printing and a couple of months ago we saw the inflation shoot up and exchange rates of currencies that remained fixed like euro dump.
• Everyone denied the energy crisis and claimed their storages are full but we keep seeing gas hungry factories shutting down and even talks of "temperature laws" in places like Switzerland and of course the article in OP!

as Russia is heavily targeting critical infrastructure which can lead to lack of heating and people freezing because of that.

Sadly the Russians have destroyed most of Ukraine's infrastructure which will also lead to yet another crisis that Europe will face: immigrants.
Some sources say about 20 million Ukrainians have been displaced because of this war already and there will be more due to winter and lack of electricity or heating. About 8 million of them have already entered the same Europe that is facing all the above crises and will make things that much worse.

[Lucius]

Well Russian propaganda comes out of Russian outlets or at least agencies that have ties with the Russians.
The Economist is a British weekly newspaper and the charts and statistics are from European sources: Copernicus; Eurostat; Energie-Control Austria; MEKH; VaasaETT; WHO; RIP.ie; ECDC; government statistics.
So I'm not really sure which one of these sources you think is linked to Russians since if you google any of them they are mostly European agencies or global like WHO.

It seems that you are not aware of Russia's influence on the UK, and especially on their media, but that is a completely different story. However, if you are interested :

https://ukraineworld.org/articles/russian-aggression/not-only-ukraine-how-russian-narratives-influence-british-media

The report damningly concludes: “The money was also invested in extending patronage and building influence across a wide sphere of the British establishment – PR firms, charities, political interests, academia and cultural institutions were all willing beneficiaries of Russian money, contributing to a ‘reputation laundering’ process. In brief, Russian influence in the UK is ‘the new normal’, and there are a lot of Russians with very close links to Putin who are well integrated into the UK business and social scene, and accepted because of their wealth. This level of integration – in ‘Londongrad’ in particular – means that any measures now being taken by the government are not preventive but rather constitute damage limitation.”

I think you should put on the brakes and stop working in favor of the Russian agenda, which has been spreading rumors for months that the EU will freeze without their gas or oil - and as @stompix has written to you several times, there are quite enough energy sources (oil, gas , electricity and firewood) so that we are not afraid of winter.

However, if we know how Russian barbarians are waging war destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure in anticipation of winter, then the number of those who will die as a result of winter could be much higher than in previous years.

[pooya87]

It seems that you are not aware of Russia's influence on the UK, and especially on their media, but that is a completely different story. However, if you are interested :

Any country with the least amount of power has influence in other countries, that doesn't mean anything you read in those secondary countries' media that doesn't agree with the status quo is a propaganda from the first country.

Here is a chart from Eurostat, an official website of the European Union. It shows between 25% to 40% increase in excess mortality (it is an epidemiology term which simply means deaths that are not normal) in December and January. In other words the speculation by the Economist is not a new event. It happens every year:

there are quite enough energy sources (oil, gas , electricity and firewood) so that we are not afraid of winter.

That's true, by shutting down lots of industries that used energy some European countries have managed to barely cover the energy needs for home users. But that is irrelevant here because if you read the article the main reason is high price not shortage, for families who are already suffering from high inflation and decreased income.

However, if we know how Russian barbarians are waging war destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure in anticipation of winter, then the number of those who will die as a result of winter could be much higher than in previous years.

Sadly that is what all invaders do. In fact it is surprising it took Russians this long to start focusing on infrastructure considering others do it from day one. For example one of the first three main targets NATO barbarians hit on the day they invaded Iraq were farms, water treatment plants and power plants.

[Hydrogen]

335,000 unfortunate preventable fatalities wouldn't even be noticed by europeans.

The harsh reality is the united states sustains between 250,000 to 440,000 fatalities due to medical errors annually.

The third-leading cause of death in US most doctors don’t want you to know about

• A recent Johns Hopkins study claims more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die every year from medical errors. Other reports claim the numbers to be as high as 440,000.
• Medical errors are the third-leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.
• Advocates are fighting back, pushing for greater legislation for patient safety.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

Do people prefer to forget these types of news headlines? I have heard some say they avoid negative or depressing news. And prefer to forget things like this happen in the world. I used to get depressed and angry reading things like this. Over time, I adjusted and became used to the idea of the world we live in being unfortunately insane in many ways. It could be a necessity for survival?

If that many europeans are desperate for heating alternatives. I would guess they will simply turn to burning garbage and trash if they can get away with it. However burning garbage is illegal and enforced now. Which could prevent many from burning such to warm themselves. In the end it could be laws against burning trash that end up killing more europeans than anything. Maybe a donation service for firewood could be deployed.

[Sebas.tian]

Those four conflicts you mentioned here OP, are the major things the world is experiencing right now that is making people to wonder if the governments are not working, which the governments are seriously working to ensure they eliminate inflation from the environment so that people will start enjoying good economy in the world. I think, the 3rd one which is the food war is the major one that is dealing with Europeans and other countries now, because the high cost of commodities has increased higher in a way people salary cannot buy much food stuff in the market.