2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

Price bump brings in more hash.
Probably going to end up with a double digit difficulty rise.
This is why we can't have nice things

Actually the diff is a bit less than it was earlier it was over 11%

this indicates that

A) most gear is now online
B) next jump will be far lower than this one.

this jumps comes in 2-3 days

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   771928  (20 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   109.2644%  (1817 / 1662.94 expected, 154.06 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   35364065900457.12                            
Current Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                            
Next Difficulty:   between 37293167605433 and 37327636775426
Next Difficulty Change:   between +9.3848% and +9.4859%
Previous Retarget:   January 2, 2023 at 10:49 PM  (-3.5926%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:19 PM  (in 1d 6h 21m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:36 PM  (in 1d 6h 37m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 19h 30m 39s and 12d 19h 47m 18s
Copy stats to clipboard

so up 🆙 9-9.5% in diff Since jan 2

and up to 20.8 from  16.6 since jan 2. that is a 25% price pop.

So next jump we should rise to catch price since price whaled.

But logistics may not show any rise as:

Gear takes time to arrive.
and power may be near max.

I wonder how much worldwide gear/power can be online if price of coin was high.

gear efficiency is closer and closer to the best it will be.

I remember gpus doing 200 watts for .4gh
or 500 watts a gh
or 500000 watts a th
now 21 watts a th.

500000/21= 23000 times more efficient then 2012

but realistically at best 10 watts a th may be it.

so we could go to 600eh and use the same power.


Say we are at 300,000,000 th

that is 9,900,000,000 watts at 33 watt efficient gear

or 9,900,000 k-watts

or 9,900 mega watts

It is a lot of power .

[1714690816]

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[1714690816]

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[kano]

it's at 10% now with about 20 hrs to go - random is as random does

[philipma1957]

40 blocks left.

+10%

price is 20.9 up about 24%.

all time high for hash rate will be over 37.2t

[mikeywith]

It was +10.256, vs 20% in price, if the price doesn't tank, we could see another 10% IMO.

the current numbers are

Latest Block:   772129  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   233.8662%  (2 / 0.86 expected, 1.14 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 37649493596979 and 150361814621988
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1571% and +300.0000%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 11:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 10:47 PM  (in 5d 23h 31m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 29, 2023 at 10:44 PM  (in 13d 23h 28m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 5d 23h 40m 18s and 13d 23h 37m 6s

the next difficulty change projection is crazy lol, I wonder what it would take for a 300% increase in difficulty in a single epoch with the current difficulty, probably some aliens with a better tech in hand can do that.

[philipma1957]

It was +10.256, vs 20% in price, if the price doesn't tank, we could see another 10% IMO.

the current numbers are

Latest Block:   772129  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   233.8662%  (2 / 0.86 expected, 1.14 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 37649493596979 and 150361814621988
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1571% and +300.0000%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 11:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 10:47 PM  (in 5d 23h 31m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 29, 2023 at 10:44 PM  (in 13d 23h 28m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 5d 23h 40m 18s and 13d 23h 37m 6s

the next difficulty change projection is crazy lol, I wonder what it would take for a 300% increase in difficulty in a single epoch with the current difficulty, probably some aliens with a better tech in hand can do that.

and an hour or so later we are dropping. 138% not 233%

Early numbers do not mean a lot.

even our all time high diff of 37.59 is not really a true 10% jump.

in Nov 21 to Dec 04 we were 36.95


One could argue that we are really having a

jump of  1.73%. since

37.59/36.95 = 1.0173 so we are merely 1.73% over the prior all-time high in late November .

One has to ask how much gear is turned off that can be turned on.
how much gear is clocked low that can be raised.
how much power is laying around.

Ie if we go to 35k. could we jump 25% in diff .

I don't think so.

I also don't think we jump 10%

but 3-6%. yeah no worries if price holds  for 2 weeks time.

[mikeywith]

Early numbers do not mean a lot.

If you catch them as early as I did, not just that they don't mean a lot, they simply don't mean anything at all, I managed to copy the status under 10 mins into the current epoch, so the "code' was expecting no blocks or actually 0.86 block, nothing unusual that 2 blocks came in under 10 mins which makes 0.86 vs 2 a whooping 233% percent pace, I know all folks who comment here know I was just joking about the 300% increase, but just in case someone doesn't, please ignore the status on the diff website when we are still early into the epoch.

[philipma1957]

Early numbers do not mean a lot.

If you catch them as early as I did, not just that they don't mean a lot, they simply don't mean anything at all, I managed to copy the status under 10 mins into the current epoch, so the "code' was expecting no blocks or actually 0.86 block, nothing unusual that 2 blocks came in under 10 mins which makes 0.86 vs 2 a whooping 233% percent pace, I know all folks who comment here know I was just joking about the 300% increase, but just in case someone doesn't, please ignore the status on the diff website when we are still early into the epoch.

Yeah wait 2 days and 300 blocks

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   772284  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   106.3348%  (157 / 147.65 expected, 9.35 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 37944623587724 and 40090282360939
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9422% and +6.6502%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 4:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 28, 2023 at 8:06 PM  (in 12d 3h 22m 31s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 29, 2023 at 1:07 PM  (in 12d 20h 23m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 58m 59s and 13d 21h 0m 13s
Copy stats to clipboard

above is too soon to know where we are going

my guess is 3-6. but these numbers are way too small to have a real idea.

[stompix]

Current Pace:   233.8662%  (2 / 0.86 expected, 1.14 ahead)

Current Pace:   104.7689%  (552 / 526.87 expected, 25.13 ahead)

And now one of those bloggers who write every time how daily hashrate has spiked or slowed down would have a field day to write a clickbait article about how the growth has dropped by  30x in a few days   

So the price is up 20%, the difficulty only 10% and maybe 4% next,  totally understandable, I'm actually intrigued why the difficulty didn't slow down exactly as I stopped mining to have profits rise even more, that would have been "normal" and matching my "predictions". But seriously, even if the difficulty would have stayed the same, the price jump was simply not enough I would still be mining at a loss, especially since the euro rallied against the $. On the bright side, I have a few more coins that are valued 20% more which I wouldn't have mined in a year!

One thing about the difficulty jump, any effects to be blamed on the new firmware?
Reading the topic I didn't see anyone claiming any major results outside low-power mode, I can't test it myself, so that's a no?

[philipma1957]

Current Pace:   233.8662%  (2 / 0.86 expected, 1.14 ahead)

Current Pace:   104.7689%  (552 / 526.87 expected, 25.13 ahead)

And now one of those bloggers who write every time how daily hashrate has spiked or slowed down would have a field day to write a clickbait article about how the growth has dropped by  30x in a few days  

So the price is up 20%, the difficulty only 10% and maybe 4% next,  totally understandable, I'm actually intrigued why the difficulty didn't slow down exactly as I stopped mining to have profits rise even more, that would have been "normal" and matching my "predictions". But seriously, even if the difficulty would have stayed the same, the price jump was simply not enough I would still be mining at a loss, especially since the euro rallied against the $. On the bright side, I have a few more coins that are valued 20% more which I wouldn't have mined in a year!

One thing about the difficulty jump, any effects to be blamed on the new firmware?
Reading the topic I didn't see anyone claiming any major results outside low-power mode, I can't test it myself, so that's a no?

The low power mode allows me to run more gear in the winter and then down clock of the summer.

It meant I would and did add hash power with less fear of summer over heating.

I would think anyone that had winter cooling well under control may have tossed in some new gear.

 I like this number today :

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   772812  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.6375%  (685 / 680.66 expected, 4.34 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                            
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Next Difficulty:   between 37738881357578 and 37854376393984
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3949% and +0.7021%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 4:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 29, 2023 at 1:59 PM  (in 9d 4h 25m 41s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 29, 2023 at 2:55 PM  (in 9d 5h 21m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 52m 17s and 13d 22h 47m 57s
Copy stats to clipboard

will slide continue?

we went from 552 to 685  that is 133 blocks we dropped from plus 25 to plus 4 a drop of 21 blocks

this would be very nice if it continues.

And with btc whaling

The diff is continuing to drop.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   772946  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   99.7910%  (819 / 820.72 expected, 1.72 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 37531870789259 and 37552502687180
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.1558% and -0.1010%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 4:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 29, 2023 at 4:34 PM  (in 8d 7h 40m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 29, 2023 at 4:49 PM  (in 8d 7h 55m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 27m 19s and 14d 0h 42m 12s
Copy stats to clipboard

we made a 134 blocks and we should have done 141. so we went from +5 blocks to - 2

Basically over last 50+ hours we are down 28 blocks  267 vs 295

that is -9.49 %

It means a shut down of something or a retooling of a mine or stone cold terrible luck.

[mikeywith]

It means a shut down of something or a retooling of a mine or stone cold terrible luck.

Probably the former, nearly 400 blocks since you posted this one and the pace seems to have stabilized, right now the numbers are

Latest Block:   773310  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.4569%  (1183 / 1166.01 expected, 16.99 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 38055268767469 and 38152395166822
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2365% and +1.4949%
Previous Retarget:   January 15, 2023 at 11:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 6:17 PM  (in 5d 16h 50m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 7:07 PM  (in 5d 17h 39m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 10m 30s and 13d 19h 59m 55s

Maybe Core has finally shut down the  >37,000 gears they run for Celsius, they talked about this in the beginning f the month, maybe it just happened, along with some other miners shut down, all I can say is "difficulty is crazy".

[philipma1957]

It means a shut down of something or a retooling of a mine or stone cold terrible luck.

Probably the former, nearly 400 blocks since you posted this one and the pace seems to have stabilized, right now the numbers are

Latest Block:   773310  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.4569%  (1183 / 1166.01 expected, 16.99 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 38055268767469 and 38152395166822
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2365% and +1.4949%
Previous Retarget:   January 15, 2023 at 11:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 6:17 PM  (in 5d 16h 50m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 7:07 PM  (in 5d 17h 39m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 10m 30s and 13d 19h 59m 55s

Maybe Core has finally shut down the  >37,000 gears they run for Celsius, they talked about this in the beginning f the month, maybe it just happened, along with some other miners shut down, all I can say is "difficulty is crazy".

Well a price of 23200 and a diff jump of 2% works.

we got down to 6.01 cents for 1th

we are up to 7.87 cents for 1th

that is a 30 percent increase from the bottom for miners

certainly works for me.

[mikeywith]

we got down to 6.01 cents for 1th

we are up to 7.87 cents for 1th

that is a 30 percent increase from the bottom for miners

certainly works for me.

If it works for you at 6 cents, should work even better a 7.8 cents, , anyway, it works for me too, wish we can get above 10 cents sometime in the near future.

meanwhile, it seems like we are approaching flat, maybe even a small negative

Latest Block:   773427  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.2545%  (1300 / 1296.70 expected, 3.3 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 37685124261375 and 37698828895514
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2518% and +0.2883%
Previous Retarget:   January 15, 2023 at 11:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 10:16 PM  (in 4d 23h 1m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 10:22 PM  (in 4d 23h 8m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 8m 48s and 13d 23h 15m 16s

[philipma1957]

Yeah we can go as low as 4.4 cents a th.

So 6 was okay.

and 7.87 is better.

A slow rise to 9-11 cents is my hope.

I have not quite retooled the farm to what I want it to be.

If we take off like mad farm will not be built out.

I order my first liquid cooling setup. Due to arrive in March.

In a magically wonderful world 🌎 made for my mine I would end up with a lot of these.

[mikeywith]

I order my first liquid cooling setup. Due to arrive in March.

Waw, March is a long way, any pics or links?

If we take off like mad farm will not be built out.

Exactly my concern, I can't stand the fact that I am not so excited about the last price increase, yes the farm makes more $$ but then gear prices are also doing the same, the problem with price increases is that miners increase more, in other words, the ROI gets longer both in BTC and $ when the price goes higher, sellers will negotiate less, supply will shrink, you can now buy 1 year ROI miner, later if we hit 30k it will be 1.4 years miner, the expansion becomes more difficult.
 
I am trying to rush ASAP to fill what's left in the farm space, the electricity infrastructure is no joke, it sucks a ton of liquidity, we just bought a 30M cable for like 0.2BTC  , it's a terrible time to be doing any infrastructure work, it's good we did most of it during the bull market but should have done better, hope someone reads this and benefit from it, if you are planning on building a farm, plan ahead, and build all the infrastructure in the bull market, even the things you are not going to use for years.

[philipma1957]

I order my first liquid cooling setup. Due to arrive in March.

Waw, March is a long way, any pics or links?

If we take off like mad farm will not be built out.

Exactly my concern, I can't stand the fact that I am not so excited about the last price increase, yes the farm makes more $$ but then gear prices are also doing the same, the problem with price increases is that miners increase more, in other words, the ROI gets longer both in BTC and $ when the price goes higher, sellers will negotiate less, supply will shrink, you can now buy 1 year ROI miner, later if we hit 30k it will be 1.4 years miner, the expansion becomes more difficult.
 
I am trying to rush ASAP to fill what's left in the farm space, the electricity infrastructure is no joke, it sucks a ton of liquidity, we just bought a 30M cable for like 0.2BTC  , it's a terrible time to be doing any infrastructure work, it's good we did most of it during the bull market but should have done better, hope someone reads this and benefit from it, if you are planning on building a farm, plan ahead, and build all the infrastructure in the bull market, even the things you are not going to use for years.

Yes links:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoOPMKbUj9g

https://octominer.com/product/octotank-12/

https://octominer.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Octominer-Octcotank12-FINAL-PDF-compressed.pdf

I am hoping these will solve our cooling issue.

[mikeywith]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoOPMKbUj9g

https://octominer.com/product/octotank-12/

They look dope, not sure how do they dispense the heat, I see no fans!, also they say it can hold 2*MicorBt miners or 1 Antminer, wouldn't it be wiser to load it with 2 WhatsMiner instead? the cost is a bit high, probably in the 1.5k range with shipping if not more, so dividing the cost by 2 could be a game changer if this is going to be used on a larger scale.

Also what about the liquid, is it included or do you have to your own?

[stompix]

They look dope, not sure how do they dispense the heat, I see no fans!, also they say it can hold 2*MicorBt miners or 1 Antminer, wouldn't it be wiser to load it with 2 WhatsMiner instead? the cost is a bit high, probably in the 1.5k range with shipping if not more, so diving the cost by 2 could be a game changer if this is going to be used on a larger scale.

Also what about the liquid, is it included or do you have to your own?

The fans are right in the front, behind the grille, they seem large enough to disperse the heat from 3000w.

As for the cooling, it's included, 35l immersion fluid.

So dump them and mine with no worries, at least on paper! The price is a bit meh for me, but each with his own needs and heat/noise issues.

I am trying to rush ASAP to fill what's left in the farm space, the electricity infrastructure is no joke, it sucks a ton of liquidity, we just bought a 30M cable for like 0.2BTC  , it's a terrible time to be doing any infrastructure work, it's good we did most of it during the bull market but should have done better, hope someone reads this and benefit from it, if you are planning on building a farm, plan ahead, and build all the infrastructure in the bull market, even the things you are not going to use for years.

Far better when you're building it when there is no crisis and all the logistics are messed up, we paid 100 Euros for 10m wire mesh fences a year back because we had to patch it but otherwise at those prices you were better of with no fences, no walls nothing. Prices for most of those things have gone down but it still needs a bit of time till they arrive at normal levels.

[philipma1957]

They look dope, not sure how do they dispense the heat, I see no fans!, also they say it can hold 2*MicorBt miners or 1 Antminer, wouldn't it be wiser to load it with 2 WhatsMiner instead? the cost is a bit high, probably in the 1.5k range with shipping if not more, so diving the cost by 2 could be a game changer if this is going to be used on a larger scale.

Also what about the liquid, is it included or do you have to your own?

The fans are right in the front, behind the grille, they seem large enough to disperse the heat from 3000w.

As for the cooling, it's included, 35l immersion fluid.

So dump them and mine with no worries, at least on paper! The price is a bit meh for me, but each with his own needs and heat/noise issues.

I am trying to rush ASAP to fill what's left in the farm space, the electricity infrastructure is no joke, it sucks a ton of liquidity, we just bought a 30M cable for like 0.2BTC  , it's a terrible time to be doing any infrastructure work, it's good we did most of it during the bull market but should have done better, hope someone reads this and benefit from it, if you are planning on building a farm, plan ahead, and build all the infrastructure in the bull market, even the things you are not going to use for years.

Far better when you're building it when there is no crisis and all the logistics are messed up, we paid 100 Euros for 10m wire mesh fences a year back because we had to patch it but otherwise at those prices you were better of with no fences, no walls nothing. Prices for most of those things have gone down but it still needs a bit of time till they arrive at normal levels.

Yeah we have 100 k-watts of unused power. These may be the only way we can use the power.

Two m30's look like the way to go with them we can setup 10-15 at the mine pretty easy.

1 or 2 at buysolar's house.
1 at my house


hmm jan 10. https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020230108213609854b369SGwI0654  = 2379

and jan 26. https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020230119205518267y5UO1czX06AE = 2684

jan 10 btc = 17,301
jan 26 btc = 23,090


does this mean the 122th pro j+ is a bargain?

[philipma1957]

So. +5%
looks likely.

Price was
20.7k and is now 23.1k

11.5% price jump and a 5% diff jump


so this will mean 2+2=4 decent weeks for mining.

I wonder what it will be in 2 weeks.

I am looking to get a pair of whatsminers to test the liquid cooler coming.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   774087  (4 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   104.3502%  (1960 / 1878.29 expected, 81.71 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                            
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Next Difficulty:   between 39233501439301 and 39234825703341
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.3709% and +4.3744%
Previous Retarget:   January 15, 2023 at 4:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:07 AM  (in 0d 8h 56m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:07 AM  (in 0d 8h 57m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 59m 33s and 13d 10h 0m 12s
Copy stats to clipboard

[kano]

[2023-01-29 06:10:11.064+00] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=774144 delta=4.68% new=39350942467772.6 prev=37590453655497.1

Big jump again ...

(and lol bitrawr ranges wrong again as usual )