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Author Topic: 2023 Diff thread now opened.  (Read 8271 times)
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philipma1957 (OP)
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December 24, 2022, 01:58:36 AM
Last edit: December 08, 2023, 03:21:02 AM by philipma1957
Merited by stompix (4), mikeywith (4), ABCbits (2), altair_tech (1)
 #1

I will open this in January of 2023.


Edit:

Opened this a few hours ago.


I quoted this at 12/07/2023 10:20 pm set

Alas V2 is, by definition, transaction bias.

Not allowing all transactions in the blockchain is a very bad idea for the free open bitcoin transaction system.

Mara pool tried doing this and stopped because of the obvious expected backlash.

Not sure why anyone would want to promote this.

It doesn't give you more blocks on the blockchain, it allows you to do 2 things:
1) Remove transactions "you don't like" = transaction bias
2) Put cheaper transactions in your blocks = devalue bitcoin and get less reward mining

I highly suggest everyone to avoid this.

Okay with crazy high tx numbers that we have now. could this set the bar higher?

Ie no fee under 400 sats a byte when fees are high and it cherry picks higher  by 50 %  would it be more likely to get a block with 3 btc in fees while a non biased one would be more likely to get a block with 2 btc in fees as it allows for low fees.


In my example above it would appear on the surface that he would hit fatter feed blocks.

Or am I simply wrong.

BTW if I am right his method is only good when fees are high.


right now if you set 120 sats as your cut off and I set no cutoff leaving it alone does he  hit higher fees  then the open non biased pool






I think he wants to leave that impression that his way results in bigger fees.


and I am asking is that true or false?

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philipma1957 (OP)
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January 01, 2023, 03:25:16 PM
Last edit: February 08, 2023, 12:12:46 AM by philipma1957
 #2

Open for posts.

Happy New Year

Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

...
Latest Block:   769885  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.5679%  (1790 / 1873.01 expected, 83.01 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   34244331613176.18                            
Current Difficulty:   35364065900457.12                            
Next Difficulty:   between 33807111608549 and 33825826956997

Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.4026% and -4.3497%

Previous Retarget:   December 19, 2022 at 10:12 AM  (+3.2698%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 1:35 AM  (in 1d 15h 13m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 1:47 AM  (in 1d 15h 24m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 23m 11s and 14d 15h 34m 56s
Copy stats to clipboard


...



226 blocks left

some time on tues the 2nd maybe -4%

price sideways in that 16k-17k slot



3Dqek9nQQdPsuHXCBT4baeos7Cp7dN3tEB

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January 01, 2023, 10:38:15 PM
 #3

Here's to hoping that 2023 goes smoother...

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January 01, 2023, 11:24:54 PM
 #4

WOW, 2022 is over, hopefully, we won't miss it.

So, the pace seems to have picked up quite a bit, the average block daily block time for the past 4 days has been below 10 minutes, on the 24th of last month it was 16.x minutes, seems like the climate stuff in the U.S had a huge major effect which when we saw the pace below 90%, but as for now, it seems like the Yanks got out strong from the storm even stronger (Thank God all the folks here are still alive and well).


The current numbers are as follows:

Quote
Latest Block:   769938  (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.9356%  (1843 / 1921.08 expected, 78.08 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   34244331613176.18                           
Current Difficulty:   35364065900457.12                           
Next Difficulty:   between 33936900083052 and 33946988537757
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.0356% and -4.0071%
Previous Retarget:   December 19, 2022 at 5:12 PM  (+3.2698%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:19 AM  (in 1d 5h 57m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:26 AM  (in 1d 6h 3m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 14h 7m 49s and 14d 14h 14m 6s

So in roughly 30 hours, we should see a good drop in difficulty, but judging by what happened in the past few days, I won't be surprised to see a positive adjustment for the next epoch, not a large one, but something in the realm of 3-5%.

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philipma1957 (OP)
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January 02, 2023, 02:41:50 PM
 #5

strong move today.

Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...

Latest Block:   770040  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   96.6306%  (1945 / 2012.82 expected, 67.82 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   34244331613176.18                           
Current Difficulty:   35364065900457.12                           
Next Difficulty:   between 34182287843199 and 34183704708292
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.3417% and -3.3377%
Previous Retarget:   December 19, 2022 at 10:12 AM  (+3.2698%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:54 PM  (in 0d 12h 13m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:55 PM  (in 0d 12h 14m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 42m 5s and 14d 11h 42m 57s
Copy stats to clipboard


78 is now 68

we did 102 blocks since mikeywith post

we should have done 92

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January 02, 2023, 08:12:59 PM
 #6

strong move today.

Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...

Latest Block:   770040  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   96.6306%  (1945 / 2012.82 expected, 67.82 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   34244331613176.18                           
Current Difficulty:   35364065900457.12                           
Next Difficulty:   between 34182287843199 and 34183704708292
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.3417% and -3.3377%
Previous Retarget:   December 19, 2022 at 10:12 AM  (+3.2698%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:54 PM  (in 0d 12h 13m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:55 PM  (in 0d 12h 14m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 42m 5s and 14d 11h 42m 57s
Copy stats to clipboard


78 is now 68

we did 102 blocks since mikeywith post

we should have done 92


Ya the average block time for the past 24 hours was 9.27 mins, the hashrate is indeed picking up, I think we will start the next epoch with somehow a good pace, probably 105-107% assuming the price stays sideways between $16,000, and $17,000.



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philipma1957 (OP)
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January 02, 2023, 10:58:11 PM
 #7

17-18 blocks left. maybe a hair under 3%

then a fresh start.

If the numbers are true we push 10%.

More likely they back off and we do 4-6%.

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January 03, 2023, 02:59:40 PM
Merited by mikeywith (4)
 #8

WOW, 2022 is over, hopefully, we won't miss it.

If we're going to miss 2022 then hopefully it will be looking at the price as a wasted buying opportunity and nothing else, 2020 was bad, 2021 was bad, and 2022 was worse, it's time to be optimistic about 2023 as it can't be worse, common, what's going to happen to make it like that !!??

I'm down to two miners, which were supposed to act as backup heaters too but, again, it's 16 degrees here in the middle of winter!!!!!!, the rest are already packed and I've already booked a pick-up for the courier as to the sunny coast of Andalusia they will go in their adventure, so this will be a relaxing year, just watching the difficulty and price, reading the news at a cup of coffee at a hard-earned break.
I'm actually so relaxed that I can finally look at this:

Quote
Latest Block:   770193  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   123.5626%  (82 / 66.36 expected, 15.64 ahead)
Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:49 AM  (-3.5926%)

and just have another sip! Mmm, fudge!!!!   Cheesy

Core is getting another $17M Loan,  Argo just sold a data center for $65m and grabbed another backed by miners loan of  $35 million, these guys will simply not run out of loaners and cash.





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January 03, 2023, 03:03:34 PM
 #9

...
2020 was bad, 2021 was bad, and 2022 was worse
...
Not sure how making truck loads of money in 2020 and 2021 was called bad.

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January 03, 2023, 03:22:59 PM
 #10

Not sure how making truck loads of money in 2020 and 2021 was called bad.

I was speaking in general, as there is more than bitcoin and mining, you start forgetting about gains when you don't have two consecutive weeks when you're not invited to a funeral, and if we look at the price, if you didn't sell, what's the difference from peak 2017 to early 2023? Furthermore, 2020 was nearly as bad as 2022 or even worse for mining too, 2021 was better than the others but 2020, no, that year I'm absolutely fine if it gets erased from my memory!
We can have price growth and obviously increase revenue in mining without covid, inflation, war, and all that stuff, actually, I'm almost sure that once all these are over we will see far better times than previously in all kinds of BTC related revenues.



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..PLAY NOW..
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January 03, 2023, 09:38:30 PM
Merited by stompix (2)
 #11

so this will be a relaxing year, just watching the difficulty and price, reading the news at a cup of coffee at a hard-earned break.
I'm actually so relaxed that I can finally look at this:

Glad to hear you are going to have a break, it's pretty much needed, on the contrary, this year will hopefully be the year where I get to the 10-20PH mark, I learned from the previous cycle, and thank God I seem to have played the last cycle well, built enough infrastructure and didn't FOMO into buying gears when they were expensive, recently I have been adding some good hashrate, alongside with some cabling, some good quality PDUs, it will be a busy year as I am slowly running out of cash and will need to wait for the gears to make some $$ to turn into hashrate again, so hopefully somewhere in Q4 this year I will hit my target and relax.

Honestly, BTC mining is an addiction, you never get enough of it unless you hit a wall and decide to stop, or you hit some physical limitation, setting hashrate mark as to where you are going to stop never worked for me, it started with I'll get 200th and stop, ok 500th is good, alright I promise to stop at 1PH, ok I know I broke a couple of promises but now for real, 2PH and I will stop, of course, all of these promises weren't fulfilled, had to lie to myself, my wife and even my partner who acts like he is mad at me for not sticking to all previous limits but shows no signs of rejections Cheesy.

This time it's for real, I am getting closer to the limit of the warehouse as well as the transformer, and any addition will require a completely new project which at this age I am certainly not willing to start, so instead of being stuck in the loop for years, I decided to finish the whole process this year and call it quits.

I hope that sometime next year I will post something like yours about taking a break for a year or so, mining has given me so much, but it also took so much from me as a person, every time I see a newcomer who thinks that mining is all about buying a mining gear after visiting an online profitability calculator, and thinking that everything is going to go according to their plan, I can't help but remember the dozen times I fucked up before realizing how difficult the mining business is, anyone who went from a small home miner with 5-10 gears to building their own farm understands how difficult it is and how many things can go wrong before you can get it right, it's been a very very difficult business, a massive challenge which I have no clue how I overcame, but thank God anyway.

Don't be mad, just try to enjoy your time, there will always be another chance to get back to mining full blast.



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January 04, 2023, 11:17:54 PM
 #12

so this will be a relaxing year, just watching the difficulty and price, reading the news at a cup of coffee at a hard-earned break.
I'm actually so relaxed that I can finally look at this:

Glad to hear you are going to have a break, it's pretty much needed, on the contrary, this year will hopefully be the year where I get to the 10-20PH mark, I learned from the previous cycle, and thank God I seem to have played the last cycle well, built enough infrastructure and didn't FOMO into buying gears when they were expensive, recently I have been adding some good hashrate, alongside with some cabling, some good quality PDUs, it will be a busy year as I am slowly running out of cash and will need to wait for the gears to make some $$ to turn into hashrate again, so hopefully somewhere in Q4 this year I will hit my target and relax.

Honestly, BTC mining is an addiction, you never get enough of it unless you hit a wall and decide to stop, or you hit some physical limitation, setting hashrate mark as to where you are going to stop never worked for me, it started with I'll get 200th and stop, ok 500th is good, alright I promise to stop at 1PH, ok I know I broke a couple of promises but now for real, 2PH and I will stop, of course, all of these promises weren't fulfilled, had to lie to myself, my wife and even my partner who acts like he is mad at me for not sticking to all previous limits but shows no signs of rejections Cheesy.

This time it's for real, I am getting closer to the limit of the warehouse as well as the transformer, and any addition will require a completely new project which at this age I am certainly not willing to start, so instead of being stuck in the loop for years, I decided to finish the whole process this year and call it quits.

I hope that sometime next year I will post something like yours about taking a break for a year or so, mining has given me so much, but it also took so much from me as a person, every time I see a newcomer who thinks that mining is all about buying a mining gear after visiting an online profitability calculator, and thinking that everything is going to go according to their plan, I can't help but remember the dozen times I fucked up before realizing how difficult the mining business is, anyone who went from a small home miner with 5-10 gears to building their own farm understands how difficult it is and how many things can go wrong before you can get it right, it's been a very very difficult business, a massive challenge which I have no clue how I overcame, but thank God anyway.

Don't be mad, just try to enjoy your time, there will always be another chance to get back to mining full blast.





Yeah the goal for this year is 4ph-5ph
and some more for LTC/Doge.


easy peasy power no transformer upgrades we can do

400 amp 240 volt = 96kwatts 80% = 75 -15 for other purposes 60kwatt in the gpu/ltc room it is doing 36kwatt now so we add 8 L7's

main btc room the transformer can do 320kwatt x .8 = 256kwatt leave 56 for other purposes we get 200kwatts we are at  100kwatts and 2ph some gear is older.  we can add 25-30 s19 pro

but we can't cool that.



We have another site with 1200 amps of 240  or  288 kwatt we can use 200 of that.  So we are looking for a lot of expansion this year. this alternate site will be hard to service. We may wait longer. to do it. it is a 4 hour car ride which means staying over night to service it. Usually a goo mine setup correctly will need 1 day every month for cleaning and maintenance .

Not sure if I want to set this site up. As it will be a long trip.

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January 05, 2023, 01:08:07 AM
 #13

We have another site with 1200 amps of 240  or  288 kwatt we can use 200 of that.  So we are looking for a lot of expansion this year. this alternate site will be hard to service. We may wait longer. to do it. it is a 4 hour car ride which means staying over night to service it. Usually a goo mine setup correctly will need 1 day every month for cleaning and maintenance .

Not sure if I want to set this site up. As it will be a long trip.


200KW can easily hold 65 S19s pro, that's almost 6.5PH, with that hashrate you could probably hire someone to do the periodic maintenance stuff, doesn't have to be someone who knows a lot about mining or IT in general, just a good lad who knows how to use some tools like cordless drills and the other things which you can provide at the site, keep enough spares of PSUs, fans and what not, and just ask that person to clean all miners, change 2 fans on miner x and miner z, you won't have to go there as often.

Of course, to get to the mark where hiring someone makes sense you will need to at least be at the 2-3ph mark, that's like a 40-50k investment which you might not take right away, so maybe for the first few months you go there yourself, and when the money flow is good, you hire someone to do it, so if the deal is the same 50/50 split, I think it's a great chance.

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January 05, 2023, 03:05:42 PM
Merited by mikeywith (4)
 #14

Don't be mad, just try to enjoy your time, there will always be another chance to get back to mining full blast.

Not mad at all, honestly, I am glad the thing with the power spike rise happened (if we talk only about mining), I was actually looking for some sort of excuse to get out,  I started it because I wasn't doing anything bitcoin related at all and I felt like I was missing something and I had a ton off free time, mostly because the stay at home/work from home stuff, but things have changed.

I could have survived even the price change, I could have gone for some government solar plans that would have offset the balance and as my family business is power-hungry and I would have qualified for a ton of those, but it was becoming exhausting. The first clean-up with 3 machines was nice I was curious, I was intrigued, when they were 6 and the exploring was done it looked more like the bad part of the hobby, and when my cousin added the last 4, it was just working, tiresome work each of us was trying to pass to the other. It's a nice change from a desk job to install fans, draw a scheme to set them up, do a bit of DIY fixing the walls and the floor, inspecting cables like you're a bomb squad  Cheesy,  checking all kind data on my smartphone but after almost two years..nope, the magic is gone! Not to mention the ~100km drive! A few more days of 1% stress till I get some feedback from the guy I sold to have some peace of mind that none got damaged during the drip or played possum at start and, peace!!!!

That's why I admire you both, cause you can still do this and manage it every day and still think of expansion, I probably wouldn't be able to do it even in a far better market, actually, no, not probably, for sure I wouldn't have managed at all.

Quote
Latest Block:   770497  (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.8493%  (386 / 354.62 expected, 31.38 ahead)

It's not 23% anymore but still added around 8 blocks per day ahead, so a 5% pace increase to the previous, so it will not only recoup the last period but add at around 2% on top, of course, if things don't change.

Also, you're not the only ones expanding, just got an email update from marathon releasing their numbers:  Grin

Quote
As of January 1, operating mining fleet consisted of approximately 69,000 active miners, capable of producing approximately 7.0 EH/s
2.1 EH/s is currently pending energization after 1,000 S19 XPs were installed in December
Depending on Applied Digital’s energization timeline, the Company expects to have between 12.0 EH/s and 15.0 EH/s online by March 31, 2023

So an extra 8 exahash by march, another 3% from them alone.


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January 05, 2023, 07:44:49 PM
 #15

That's why I admire you both, cause you can still do this and manage it every day and still think of expansion, I probably wouldn't be able to do it even in a far better market, actually, no, not probably, for sure I wouldn't have managed at all.

I think you did great being in a country that isn't so BTC mining friendly, the power cost and stuff were never on your side to start with, but you somehow managed to work it out for some time which is a huge achievement, the power bill was never a concern for me, which is probably how I managed to go this far to be honest.

Quote
Also, you're not the only ones expanding, just got an email update from marathon releasing their numbers:  Grin

Yes, sadly we are not alone lol, it's us the little guys against those ultra-rich folks, I think we stand a better chance in this business, but only time will tell, meanwhile not all of them are doing great, some are just starting to hit the wall.

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January 05, 2023, 10:39:07 PM
 #16

Don't be mad, just try to enjoy your time, there will always be another chance to get back to mining full blast.

Not mad at all, honestly, I am glad the thing with the power spike rise happened (if we talk only about mining), I was actually looking for some sort of excuse to get out,  I started it because I wasn't doing anything bitcoin related at all and I felt like I was missing something and I had a ton off free time, mostly because the stay at home/work from home stuff, but things have changed.

I could have survived even the price change, I could have gone for some government solar plans that would have offset the balance and as my family business is power-hungry and I would have qualified for a ton of those, but it was becoming exhausting. The first clean-up with 3 machines was nice I was curious, I was intrigued, when they were 6 and the exploring was done it looked more like the bad part of the hobby, and when my cousin added the last 4, it was just working, tiresome work each of us was trying to pass to the other. It's a nice change from a desk job to install fans, draw a scheme to set them up, do a bit of DIY fixing the walls and the floor, inspecting cables like you're a bomb squad  Cheesy,  checking all kind data on my smartphone but after almost two years..nope, the magic is gone! Not to mention the ~100km drive! A few more days of 1% stress till I get some feedback from the guy I sold to have some peace of mind that none got damaged during the drip or played possum at start and, peace!!!!

That's why I admire you both, cause you can still do this and manage it every day and still think of expansion, I probably wouldn't be able to do it even in a far better market, actually, no, not probably, for sure I wouldn't have managed at all.

Quote
Latest Block:   770497  (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.8493%  (386 / 354.62 expected, 31.38 ahead)

It's not 23% anymore but still added around 8 blocks per day ahead, so a 5% pace increase to the previous, so it will not only recoup the last period but add at around 2% on top, of course, if things don't change.

Also, you're not the only ones expanding, just got an email update from marathon releasing their numbers:  Grin

Quote
As of January 1, operating mining fleet consisted of approximately 69,000 active miners, capable of producing approximately 7.0 EH/s
2.1 EH/s is currently pending energization after 1,000 S19 XPs were installed in December
Depending on Applied Digital’s energization timeline, the Company expects to have between 12.0 EH/s and 15.0 EH/s online by March 31, 2023

So an extra 8 exahash by march, another 3% from them alone.


sometimes I don't know how I do it. but I have multiple people in on it. The biggest issues holding back expansion to say 500-600kwatts are distance to the mines.

Howell,NJ  to Clifton, NJ is 100KM or 65 miles. Cost to drive with tolls and gas is $30 and 3 hours round trip.

Howell,NJ to the PA location is  300Km or 180 miles. cost to drive with tools and gas is $80 and 9 hour round trip

those are with okay traffic if traffic sucks it is more.

I have found an good asic mine setup properly needs 10-15 visits a year. If we do both and tie in the visits it is 2-3 days every 4 weeks or so. I would do it if the spilt was 2 way it will be 4 way.

So it means 8ph/4= 2ph for 'free' that is only 121 usd  a day or 3600 a month. I don't count my on line time which is quite a bit.

If we could set up 20ph 4 way split this year and my 5ph clears me 9129 usd a month I would be in with no questions asked.

I know we do the Clifton,NJ mine  to the max this year. not sure about the one in PA (ie it has no gear just a lot of power) if we do PA it will be a trailer setup.

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January 07, 2023, 10:06:58 PM
 #17

So it means 8ph/4= 2ph for 'free' that is only 121 usd  a day or 3600 a month. I don't count my on line time which is quite a bit.

If we could set up 20ph 4 way split this year and my 5ph clears me 9129 usd a month I would be in with no questions asked.

I know we do the Clifton,NJ mine  to the max this year. not sure about the one in PA (ie it has no gear just a lot of power) if we do PA it will be a trailer setup.

Everything you said makes perfect sense, but you also need to keep in mind that we are in a bear market, we are closer to the bottom than any other time in the past year. We are at a higher point in difficulty than we have ever been before, of course, not saying things couldn't get worse, but the point is, the numbers you run right now could be 2-5x in two years.

It would be perfect if you wouldn't risk anything and just wait for the market to get better, but then the four of you will have no way to buy 8PH worth of hashrate, if it's 14$ th now, that's a total of nearly 100k, if profitability is 5x better next year, it will take half a million dollars to buy that same hashrate, let alone 20PH when the price per terahash is back to the 40-50$ mark.

So think of it as somehow a future investment, won't be worth the trouble and the rides for maybe 1-2 years, but when the time comes, you would probably be willing to walk the same distance. Cheesy

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philipma1957 (OP)
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January 08, 2023, 07:02:51 PM
Last edit: January 08, 2023, 07:18:38 PM by philipma1957
Merited by mikeywith (2)
 #18

Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   771013  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   111.1832%  (902 / 811.27 expected, 90.73 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   35364065900457.12                            
Current Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36757031569329 and 38064133177644
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.8122% and +11.6461%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 10:49 PM  (-3.5926%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 15, 2023 at 1:01 PM  (in 6d 22h 59m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 15, 2023 at 11:20 PM  (in 7d 9h 18m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 14h 12m 13s and 13d 0h 31m 23s
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very strong move upwards

36.95T  is our all-time high

looks like it is about to fall.

at the moment we are about 6.3 cents a th pre power

if we jump 10% and we are on track to do it.  earnings will drop to 5.6 or 5.7 cents a th

So a 100 th s19 will do $5.60  to $5.70 a day pre power.

say 75 kwatts a day

12 cents  = $9.00 Loser
11 cents  = $8.25 Loser
10 cents  = $7.50 Loser
  9 cents  = $6.75 Loser
  8 cents  = $6.00 Loser
  7 cents  = $5.25 Loser
  6 cents  = $4.50 small profit if no debt and building is owned not rented
  5 cents  = $3.75 profit


So we will get into that 5-6-7 cent range almost always when this happens hash drops a bit.

As these are the break even numbers.

we almost never drop to 4-5-6 cent range for a diff drop trend to happen.

Of course a simple price rise to 25k fixes a lot of issues for miners.

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mikeywith
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January 08, 2023, 10:18:33 PM
 #19

So we will get into that 5-6-7 cent range almost always when this happens hash drops a bit.

As these are the break even numbers.

we almost never drop to 4-5-6 cent range for a diff drop trend to happen.

Of course a simple price rise to 25k fixes a lot of issues for miners.

I am also starting to expect a similar scenario, where the difficulty will be moving in a narrow range just like the price does for a good while, I think there is a good amount of idle hashrate that's ready to go on with a click of a button, many gears probably run underclocked after a diff spike, and then back stock/overclock right after a drop.

So something like 3-7% up in difficulty  > switch to underclock / power off, causes difficulty drop which leads to > go back to stock/overclock or power on, rinse and repeat, in fact, this has been happening for the last 6 epochs starting from the 23rd of November the difficulty change has been + - + - + - and now are about to print a +, which means we are very likely to print a - for the following epoch, rinse and repeat until a new equilibrium is made.

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philipma1957 (OP)
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January 08, 2023, 10:56:41 PM
 #20

So we will get into that 5-6-7 cent range almost always when this happens hash drops a bit.

As these are the break even numbers.

we almost never drop to 4-5-6 cent range for a diff drop trend to happen.

Of course a simple price rise to 25k fixes a lot of issues for miners.

I am also starting to expect a similar scenario, where the difficulty will be moving in a narrow range just like the price does for a good while, I think there is a good amount of idle hashrate that's ready to go on with a click of a button, many gears probably run underclocked after a diff spike, and then back stock/overclock right after a drop.

So something like 3-7% up in difficulty  > switch to underclock / power off, causes difficulty drop which leads to > go back to stock/overclock or power on, rinse and repeat, in fact, this has been happening for the last 6 epochs starting from the 23rd of November the difficulty change has been + - + - + - and now are about to print a +, which means we are very likely to print a - for the following epoch, rinse and repeat until a new equilibrium is made.


Yep lets argue you have 100000 s19 pro they do 3kwatts and 100th or 2kwatts and 82th

flip flop in a few minutes when needed will be the norm.

So you are burning 300000 kwatts a hour and 10eh or 200000 kwatts an hour and 8.2 eh

now the move above would be a 300mw mining farm and I am not sure if one does exist at that size.

All gear in one plant site. Maybe two 150,000 sq foot buildings with liquid cooling could do the trick.


let me think that over.

say a 5 by 3 basin stacked 4 high does 32 s19's that is 15 square ft so 10 stacks of them is 150 square ft  and 320 units.

1000 stacks of them is 15000 square ft and  32000 units so yeah only one 45000 foot building with 3000 stacks of liquid cooling bins would do 96000 s19's that would be a sight to see. Hopefully the liquid would be not flammable  Cry

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 MΞTAWIN  THE FIRST WEB3 CASINO   
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