2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

we are at block 434 block 500 is due in about 11 hours

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814897  (18 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.4474%  (434 / 407.71 expected, 26.29 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63969102978758 and 66539708792505
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.4104% and +6.5258%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 2:29 AM  (in 10d 7h 41m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 3:01 PM  (in 10d 20h 13m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 38m 55s and 13d 16h 10m 51s

do not pick early.

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99%
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%
07) 1.99 to 2.31%
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63%
12) 3.64 to 3.96%
13) 3.97 to 4.29%
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95%
16) 4.96 to 5.28%
17) 5.29 to 5.61%
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%

do not pick early.

When I wake up tomorrow (hopefully) I will pm all of last contestants that the game started.

I will also pm biffa and watche.

lastly picks start at 500 and end at 1200

[1714694219]

1714694219

[1714694219]

1714694219

[joker_josue]

I'll choose:

03) 0.67 to 0.99% joker_josue

Maybe the climb will slow down a little. 

[mikeywith]

I'll choose:

03) 0.67 to 0.99% joker_josue

Maybe the climb will slow down a little. 

You picked a little bit too early, right now we are at block 495, so 5 more blocks to go, so ya, I hope others play fair and leave #3 for you.

Latest Block:   814958  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.2331%  (495 / 470.38 expected, 24.62 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 63847900226547 and 65774173964239
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.2164% and +5.3002%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 5:50 AM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 1:07 PM  (in 10d 0h 53m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 10:38 PM  (in 10d 10h 24m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 7h 17m 28s and 13d 16h 48m 7s

Posting this here for future reference,  as a miner the difficulty increments annoy me, so while picking positive numbers I always hope the guys who pick the lower adjustments or the negatives win.

I would also give this to joker_josue if I win this time. will pick my lucky number a few blocks later.

[paid2]

Ok we are now at block 503 

I will pick :
07) 1.99 to 2.31% - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2

Good luck guys! 

Posting this here for future reference,  as a miner the difficulty increments annoy me, so while picking positive numbers I always hope the guys who pick the lower adjustments or the negatives win.

Couldn't agree more about this statement!

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63%
12) 3.64 to 3.96%
13) 3.97 to 4.29%
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95%
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814970  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.8653%  (507 / 488.13 expected, 18.87 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63519466476524 and 64917800290727
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.6906% and +3.9292%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 10:20 AM  (in 10d 2h 8m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:20 PM  (in 10d 9h 8m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 29m 44s and 13d 18h 30m 5s

we slipped a bit over night. so if the jump ended right now number

12) would win  3.64 to 3.96%

[vapourminer]

picks are  open

17) 5.29 to 5.61% vapourminer - will donate to talkimg



thanks phil!

[NeuroticFish]

It's interesting that the range doesn't have negative numbers this time
But I understand the logic and I agree with it.


16) 4.96 to 5.28% NeuroticFish --- and I will too donate to TalkImg

Thank you

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63%
12) 3.64 to 3.96%
13) 3.97 to 4.29%
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95%
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814998  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4766%  (535 / 517.03 expected, 17.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63461355899802 and 64672609639284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5975% and +3.5367%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 11:33 AM  (in 9d 22h 32m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:38 PM  (in 10d 4h 37m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 42m 39s and 13d 18h 48m 12s

we slipped a bit more. so if the jump ended right now number

11) would win  3.31 to 3.63%

5 picks in 25 to go


@neuroticfish

I could tighten this up by doing smaller ranges.

ie

0.00 to 0.19
0.20 to 0.39

or

0.00 to 0.24
0.25 to 0.49

and go for 40 numbers

which would put us in 0.00 to 7.99 or 0.00 to 9.99

but the contest may 2x or triple up. I will be taking a break for a bit after this contest,


so guys and gals make more picks.

[stompix]

No negative? So bullish are we? Or is this bearish in earnings?

06) 1.66 to 1.98% Stompix
Oh, and do I have to mention this stuff, if I....LMAO, LOL...win,  just add it to the next game!

Now going back a bit:

There is one interesting research paper by Derek Abbott named "Is Nuclear Power Globally Scalable?", the paper is fun to read and it answers this question in depth, key points taken from the research paper are:

1- Location problems:

Nuclear power plants need roughly 20km square and is location sensitive, it needs to be close to the water "river, sea oceans" and yet far from populated areas, not so many locations with such properties.

2- Replacement:

It takes 6-12 years to build a nuclear power plant with a service life of 50 years on average, and it takes about 20 years to to decommission it, which puts more weight on the first point (you need more places to sustain it)

Mikey, I don't know where he got his data from but this is pretty inaccurate.
Random Nuclear powerplant:

big one is 20sqm, little one the actual plant is 2 skm
Even a behemoth like Bruce is barely 5 sq km and we don't need a hundred thousand of them, 400 reactors (not plants) provide 10% of the needed electricity, 17% comes from hydro so for going to 100% with no fossil and 24/7 availability you would only need some 700 locations in 140 countries...and if you can already fit 7 in Belgium and 6 in the Czech republic I think there is enough space in all the world!

As for the years, again looking at Bruce CANDU reactors:
Commercial operation: 18 January 1979, Closure (2064), so 85 years rather than 50.
The 30-50 years was for things built in the 50s, newer plants can easily do 70 years even with an extension, which of course would include shutting down and a ton of maintenance but is still doable!

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63%
12) 3.64 to 3.96%
13) 3.97 to 4.29%
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95%
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814998  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4766%  (535 / 517.03 expected, 17.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63461355899802 and 64672609639284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5975% and +3.5367%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 11:33 AM  (in 9d 22h 32m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:38 PM  (in 10d 4h 37m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 42m 39s and 13d 18h 48m 12s

we slipped a bit more. so if the jump ended right now number

11) would win  3.31 to 3.63%

six picked 24 picks left

[Warfare]

12) 3.64 to 3.96% Warfare

Thanks!

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63%
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29%
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95%
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814998  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4766%  (535 / 517.03 expected, 17.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63461355899802 and 64672609639284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5975% and +3.5367%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 11:33 AM  (in 9d 22h 32m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:38 PM  (in 10d 4h 37m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 42m 39s and 13d 18h 48m 12s

we slipped a bit more. so if the jump ended right now number

11) would win  3.31 to 3.63%

six picked 24 picks left

[Greyhats]

13) 3.97 to 4.29%

Will take lucky 13 please

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63%
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95%
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814998  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4766%  (535 / 517.03 expected, 17.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63461355899802 and 64672609639284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5975% and +3.5367%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 11:33 AM  (in 9d 22h 32m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:38 PM  (in 10d 4h 37m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 42m 39s and 13d 18h 48m 12s

we slipped a bit more. so if the jump ended right now number

11) would win  3.31 to 3.63%

eight picked 22 picks left

[mikeywith]

Mikey, I don't know where he got his data from but this is pretty inaccurate.

Me neither, but then you know given his profession and where he works, and also the fact that this is more of a research paper than a random article online, one would assume that the info there would be rather accurate, but ya, you can never be too sure these days, I don't understand anything nuclear-related, at least not on the technical level, I wish I have more time and years ahead to learn more about everything, but ya, I am too old to worry about how the world goes about generating electricity.



Phill, this will be my pick.

11) 3.31 to 3.63%

As I said in my previous post, if I win -- it goes to joker_josue/talkimg.

Good luck everyone.

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95%
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814998  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4766%  (535 / 517.03 expected, 17.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63461355899802 and 64672609639284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5975% and +3.5367%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 11:33 AM  (in 9d 22h 32m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:38 PM  (in 10d 4h 37m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 42m 39s and 13d 18h 48m 12s

we slipped a bit more. so if the jump ended right now number

11) would win  3.31 to 3.63%

eight picked 22 picks left

nine picked 21 picks left

[joker_josue]

I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

I'm sorry, I really messed up! 
I'm still trying to understand the dynamics, sorry.

Thank you for accepting my choice anyway.



I want to take this opportunity to thank you for the support you are giving to TalkImg! This only gives me more strength to continue! 

[philipma1957]

I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

I'm sorry, I really messed up! 
I'm still trying to understand the dynamics, sorry.

Thank you for accepting my choice anyway.



I want to take this opportunity to thank you for the support you are giving to TalkImg! This only gives me more strength to continue! 

An accidental early pick is not a big deal. you don't get a real edge.  Picking at block 2015 or even block 1300 after picks are closed gives an edge.

 don't worry np.

As for supporting you I have a vested interest as I have over 1000 Imgur photos that I posted here. Eventually I am thinking of creating a long photo thread show my journey on bitcointalk. So I likely will be using your site bigly.

[joker_josue]

As for supporting you I have a vested interest as I have over 1000 Imgur photos that I posted here. Eventually I am thinking of creating a long photo thread show my journey on bitcointalk. So I likely will be using your site bigly.

Thank you for your support and that of other users, who are also participating.

You are almost a year older than me here on the forum, and you were more active during all these years. So I can imagine your history here on the site. 


_{Don't forget to create an account so you can manage this entire image bank.}

[GazetaBitcoin]

I'll take my chances with 15) 4.63 to 4.95%.