Bitcoin 50% Down Move Incoming?

[ImThour]

I was analyzing Bitcoin's RSI on Weekly Timeframe.
I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.

Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.

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[BITCOIN4X]

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.

So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.

[ImThour]

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.

LMAO which support are you talking about? We already broke 200 Moving Average which was a support for past two cycles.

[buwaytress]

While I don't think that's likely (I've had my fair share of crosses golden and death... and more!), have to say also we haven't had a flash crash happen -- something Bitcoin's particularly susceptible to in bear markets. It doesn't usually happen within a year of ATH, though, then again, this cycle's keen on chucking away the wisdom of past cycles.

Expect more down crosses first before that flash crash -- and then a powerful rebound. That's what I'm gritting my teeth for, but not just quite so soon as the week of Bitcoin's "birthday"...

[dansus021]

sorry little bit out of topic I think your RSI crossing average indicator can give a huge profit when it comes to weekly chart

[davis196]

I don't want to compare the current situation on the Bitcoin market with the 2018-2019 market. In 2018-2019, the bearish market lasted several months and the price started growing from 4K to 8-10K USD during the spring of 2019. I don't expect a massive price growth in the spring of 2023. The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.

[Marvell1]

I don't want to compare the current situation on the Bitcoin market with the 2018-2019 market. In 2018-2019, the bearish market lasted several months and the price started growing from 4K to 8-10K USD during the spring of 2019. I don't expect a massive price growth in the spring of 2023. The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.

I am not a believer in technical analysis but looking at the world economy and what is going on in the markets, I also predict another crash in 2023. Fed rates are falling, but the recession is closer than ever, even many countries have already into recession, so expectations of a bull run in 2023 are highly unlikely. I don't think bitcoin can drop to 8k, but 10k-12k is possible.

Honestly, not only big investors but even myself can say that bitcoin has never been a safe haven or a safe haven in times of crisis or inflation. Bitcoin has yet to reach that level, it needs more time to do so.

[el kaka22]

If you keep spotting on, you can find lots of similar patterns between 2018 and 2014 as well. But, the bulls came to action at different times which may happen for 2022 bearish trend as well. In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time. Overall downfall from respective ATH was around 80% and unfortunately we are already trading into that zone hence I am not expecting another 50% downfall from here before bulls get into action.

Like elliot wave theory, bitcoin is suffering up to 80% downfall in its each cycle from the ATH. So, the bottom for current cycle is around $15k with give or take $2k hence we can assume that we had passed the bottom already. This means, we do not need to be worried about another pullback from here.

[Lucius]

The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.

Let's say that the situation is not very good, but do you think that it is so bad that the price will not recover significantly for at least another 2 years? Does that mean that for you the halving that will happen in the first half of 2024 will have absolutely no effect?

I think that 2023 will still bring some positive change, especially if inflation is stopped and if the EU and the US successfully survive this winter. This would mean that ordinary people will have more money to invest, and they are the ones who need to start the market at some point.


50% crash can always happen, but not because something like that happened in the past, but because of some new extremely bad news.

[tygeade]

In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time.

So, in last 2 cycles, 50% fall happened at the end of bearish trend? I am also sure that for the current market sentiment, if any negative news happens right now then we can see a bloodbath easily unlike at the beginning of the same bearish trend. Moreover, I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.

The good thing is, even after a 50% collapse at the end of bearish market, we bounced back; so I agree that we do not need to worry but we can be glad as we are about to sail on green market in real soon.

[KingsDen]

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.

So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.

When I zoomed out the chart and tried to study on the long distant purpose it was scary. If what is about to be formed continues, next year could be more teary than what we have this year.
I know the market is matured now and most times does not follow the chart or history.
There's no strong support nor strong resistant. When I thought btc formed a support at 20k,  just FTX fud pulled it down very fast.

[Fatunad]

In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time.

So, in last 2 cycles, 50% fall happened at the end of bearish trend? I am also sure that for the current market sentiment, if any negative news happens right now then we can see a bloodbath easily unlike at the beginning of the same bearish trend. Moreover, I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.

The good thing is, even after a 50% collapse at the end of bearish market, we bounced back; so I agree that we do not need to worry but we can be glad as we are about to sail on green market in real soon.

The best thing is that the price do able to held up that strong and we've been expecting below 10k or lesser which is really that too much imho if we do compare it out on how
far we do able to reach out in speaking about ATH and ATL comparisson.Although not all history or things in the past do significantly that makes on what things could happen in the future.
Yes, we can really make out some patterns but it wont really be that 100% precise for it to be true or something that we could really rely upon.
If you've been making out investment on this market then make yourself that prepared.

[adaseb]

You know what. I am not saying this will happen.

But right now the Sp500 index is trading very similar to 2008. Basically very similar ranges at obviously different prices but similar points in time. We are at the point of where Lehman collapsed and stocks went down massively. So it’s not hard to understand another 50% drop.

However keep in mind. If it were this easy to just look at past charts then everybody would be rich. So DCA just in case. If it crashes then you can average down.

[beerlover]

I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.

I do not think so. For 68k to 34k, bitcoin took more than 50 days and for 34k to 17k, it again took more than 5 months of time. But, at the times of bottom, another 50% fall may happen in one or two days of time itself. Yet, not all the news are capable of taking down to 50% fall; so do not need to be worried as market sentiment is changing to positive on the verge of new year.

Like other people here, I am also confident about bouncing back of bitcoin market from here after instead of thinking about another round of bearish trend any more. Let's prepare for bullish trend till end of 2025.

[TravelMug]

I think even if we don't look at the charts and just by seeing how the price moves in 2018-2019 bear market, it seems that we might be for another leg down down this year, or the final capitulation before we can see last rebound in the last quarter of the year. But not that huge recovery that we are looking, sort of saying that the bear market might be finally over. So yeah, maybe at the start of the year, expect the unexpected, or the worst situation of another lower lows for this year.

[NeuroticFish]

I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...

I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...

[Lucius]

I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
~snip~

I remember that you were quite positive about the end of the year, and honestly it was not clear to me why you were of the opinion that anything positive would happen - even though it was before FTX happened, but even without that I think that the moment is simply unfavorable considering the current circumstances in general and the phase in which Bitcoin is always before the halving.

The accumulation phase obviously has to last for some time, and those who have knowledge, power and money definitely want to maintain that phase as long as possible because their bags are never full enough. It seems to me that the game still has the same rules, and that would mean another 6 months of crypto winter, and then the market will move in the direction that many expect.

[NeuroticFish]

The accumulation phase obviously has to last for some time, and those who have knowledge, power and money definitely want to maintain that phase as long as possible because their bags are never full enough.

This is one of the bits I've missed, I guess. Also I've seen signs that the global economy seems to be recovering somewhat, or at least is not going full speed towards the edge.
My calculations were expecting a shorter crypto winter and less stiff bull market.
I've also matched the length of the bear market with the previous one (I know, it's not enough data, clearly), and my calculations said that Q4 2022 should be the end of this crypto winter.
I don't know if the math was wrong or I've also missed this or that on the way, .. it doesn't matter much now anymore...

[ImThour]

I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...

I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...

I remember you being optimistic in April when I said Bitcoin will touch $16k by End of Year.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.

$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.

[Welsh]

I am not a believer in technical analysis but looking at the world economy and what is going on in the markets, I also predict another crash in 2023. Fed rates are falling, but the recession is closer than ever, even many countries have already into recession, so expectations of a bull run in 2023 are highly unlikely. I don't think bitcoin can drop to 8k, but 10k-12k is possible.

Technical analysis is a decent indicator. However, the problem is people just compare what's happened before, and then expect a similar pattern. When really; the analysis should be looking at the current situation, what happened in the past, what's different now, and the current risk factors. For example, rarely do I see users thinking about how the recession will impact their previous historical cycles, which is quite obvious to me. We aren't going to see the same pattern; since four years ago we didn't have a pandemic, and recession to recover from.

The four year cycle is nothing more than a market that's relatively stable because of the lack of massive events that effect global investment. Such as; pandemic, war, and the recession.