Recession Highly Likely

[cafter]

is it helpful in any way, i think yes, but not sure because don't have knowledge in deep.


read this reddit thread, and explain if possible.
https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/12ejf4e/recession_highly_likely/

[EarnOnVictor]

Economists around the world feared the global recession last year. Still, the fear is being allayed this year as more hope is rekindling, thanks to governments' careful efforts to tackle the menace. Global spending rose much in recent years due to inflation but for lesser goods purchase and service rendering, and a responsible government hiked the interest rates across the board.

Still, the effect has consequences on the GDP, Manufacturing/Retail sales and others. These contracted the economy but the effect is subsiding in 2023. So, I don't believe a recession is feasible at least in the near future.

[mvdheuvel1983]

I do not have a strong belief that history charts are a reliable indicator of future developments. This statement perfectly expresses my feelings towards this chart. I believe that it fails to correctly predict any recession. Even if the chart shows that inversions of the 50-day SMA of the 10-year treasury rates minus the 50-day SMA of the 3-month treasury rates have preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years, there is simply no evidence from the chart that there will be a recession. There are simply too many unknowables that could alter at any time. The government might propose, among other things, new, advantageous economic conditions and policies.  Anyways, I just feel that the chart is there to give us a head up but there always a 5% uncertainty involved and I am holding on to that.

[NeuroticFish]

I feel like the more the voices (from government and banks' area) telling we won't have recession the higher the chances we're very close to that.
There are chances to still avoid it, but.. I don't know.. right now the situation looks ugly.

On the other hand Tytanowy Janusz had in February a pretty interesting point we are already in recession. Unfortunately I am not knowledgeable enough to have a smart enough discussion on that.

[passwordnow]

With the news and fear that I am seeing about recession, it does really look like that we are on it. It is frightening that we are going through a lot of it just after or not yet really done from pandemic, to printing more of money, to the war and now woth great alliances. Who is not going to worry with such and do not forget about OPEC limiting oil supplies on a daily basis. The heck is happening on this world, even with a recession only the rich becomes richer.

[BenCodie]

So, I don't believe a recession is feasible at least in the near future.

That's a surprising opinion.

In my opinion, the Federal Reserve and all proponents of fiat currency are pulling out all of the stops that they can to prevent their monetary system from crumbling and falling to the mercy of its competitors. It might survive for another year, two years, three years...but at what cost to the people and when will the people have enough of the costs that are being imposed on them for saving fiat currency?

The paradigm is already shifting, I think it's only a matter of 1-2 years before the paradigm begins to shift clearly in front of everyone.

[Jating]

Isn't it though that even before pandemic, we are somewhat moving into recessions? And the Covid-19 just magnified what the economist feared. So yeah, we are already deep in recession, there's only one good topic to read, "Greedflation" has gone too far!.

And we have seen the even US is trying to fight it out, printing money and hiking interest rates to salvage their economy.

The question is how many years will we get out of it, 2-3 years? As individual how to get out of recession?

[Husires]

The economic changes that occurred after 2008 broke all previous rules, and therefore relying on previous schemes to predict recession will not lead us to accurate results.
The definition of recession in its simple sense, which is job losses, increased debt and the inability to continue economic activities, is not currently available, and therefore the middle class has not yet felt recession, which means that we are still far from it or we need larger shocks.


The diversification of the economy and investment and the emergence of technology companies that provide thousands of services with the fewest number of employees have a role in this, and with the dependence of many countries on the dollar, the debt of the United States is distributed throughout the world.

[fuguebtc]

.. do not forget about OPEC limiting oil supplies on a daily basis. The heck is happening on this world, even with a recession only the rich becomes richer.

OPEC's recent oil production cuts are a real concern for the world economy. They do not seem to care about the crisis or recession of the world economy, what they want is to keep the oil price high to make a profit. In the long run, this will most likely cause inflation to rise again, and we will fall into an inevitable recession.

Many have happened to our world over the past two years, and this will not end anytime soon if the war of the great powers in Ukraine does not end soon. Only when the war is over can we expect the economy's stability.

[Dakcrypto]

Well with my own observation, since 2020 we have been deep in this recession. After the pandemic we haven't recovered any of the things we lost and it is going more deeper than what the professors in philosophy and economies said.
I was in church today and someone said in UK for over two weeks they haven't bought egg a common thing we get regularly because of how hard things have become. The economy of United kingdom is going down gradually but we are not noticing it.
With power and influence of United kingdom (Britain) they are still facing economy down turn, imagine an underdeveloped and average developed nations will be facing now.

This example is to prove that recession has started for a long time now.

[Dickiy]

.. do not forget about OPEC limiting oil supplies on a daily basis. The heck is happening on this world, even with a recession only the rich becomes richer.

OPEC's recent oil production cuts are a real concern for the world economy. They do not seem to care about the crisis or recession of the world economy, what they want is to keep the oil price high to make a profit. In the long run, this will most likely cause inflation to rise again, and we will fall into an inevitable recession.

Many have happened to our world over the past two years, and this will not end anytime soon if the war of the great powers in Ukraine does not end soon. Only when the war is over can we expect the economy's stability.

In addition to seeking profits and maintaining oil prices, in my opinion, on the other hand, we also have to see how much of the remaining oil reserves are mined by OPEC.
What I'm worried about is that indeed the state of the oil reserves that they have in mining have not much left so they decide to reduce production whose goal is to last a little longer I don't think they don't care about the economic situation but if you look at it from this point of view too have a correlation.

Confused news about the Recession. I have heard about it for more than a year and I have not found clear confirmation about the current situation and the next. Maybe we are in a recession today and the government is deliberately hiding the truth so that there will be no panic among the people.
I don't think that we have to depend on the Ukraine and Russia conflict to determine the economic stability of most countries in the world, but if that is the case, we will see how influential Ukraine and Russia are in the global economic circulation.

[Gozie51]

The recession is not impossible to come down on some countries with the way things have turned out. One major factor that can make this recession hit different continent (if it has not already) the increase in inflation and high unemployment rate. These two factors have relationship with finance either incoming finance or out going finance. When there is no source of income, that is an indication that there is recession either on a family level or country.

To prepare for recession properly, my suggestion is to increase the level of manufacturing by the government and this will support the unemployed and the proceed goes back to the society which will add to the reserve.

[Majestic-milf]

.. do not forget about OPEC limiting oil supplies on a daily basis. The heck is happening on this world, even with a recession only the rich becomes richer.

They do not seem to care about the crisis or recession of the world economy, what they want is to keep the oil price high to make a profit.

I think Saudi Arabia's prince has a different reason for cuts to oil exportation and in his own defense, he seems disinterested in pleasing the US!
 I think this attitude by the Saudis is only going to strengthen the ongoing tension between them and America and will this attitude by not just him but the BRICS nation affect the dollar? Sure! And also, Prince Salman has expressed interest in opening trade with currencies other than the US dollars.

[Zaguru12]

The recession is not impossible to come down on some countries with the way things have turned out. One major factor that can make this recession hit different continent (if it has not already) the increase in inflation and high unemployment rate. These two factors have relationship with finance either incoming finance or out going finance. When there is no source of income, that is an indication that there is recession either on a family level or country.

To prepare for recession properly, my suggestion is to increase the level of manufacturing by the government and this will support the unemployed and the proceed goes back to the society which will add to the reserve.

This is Definitely why many experts thinks recession is lurking around in the new future and not inevitable. Although the GDP has continued to raise and this has easy many minds about the risks of recession but if we look carefully the inflation rates are increasing gradually although it is a good thing to control the production of a country and the demands of the products but should it continue it will affect the wage’s earnings and people might seek to ask for increase in wages. We all know most of these companies runs on loans and even during the lower interest rate period it was hard to get one so this could actually result into layoffs of workers by most of these companies. Although the government is trying to cool down the economy but in the bid the amount of employment created has reduced drastically and in near future the unemployment rate will just increase more posing threat of recession.

[fuguebtc]

I don't think that we have to depend on the Ukraine and Russia conflict to determine the economic stability of most countries in the world, but if that is the case, we will see how influential Ukraine and Russia are in the global economic circulation.

Our world is a chain, all countries are closely linked and war is going on not only between Russia and Ukraine but between the two poles of the world. On one side are Europe and the United States, on the other are Russia and China and some of their allies. This is a war to redistribute power in the world, not just Ukraine. So I think it had a huge impact on all of us.

~~~

I think Saudi Arabia's prince has a different reason for cuts to oil exportation and in his own defense, he seems disinterested in pleasing the US!
 I think this attitude by the Saudis is only going to strengthen the ongoing tension between them and America and will this attitude by not just him but the BRICS nation affect the dollar? Sure! And also, Prince Salman has expressed interest in opening trade with currencies other than the US dollars.

Maybe you are right, they're probably protecting themselves, and that's their top priority. This is the 2nd time they have cut oil production and this will worsen OPEC's relationship with the US but I believe they don't care what the US is thinking. The balance of world power is being reallocated from these events.

[Freddie Boyer]

is it helpful in any way, i think yes, but not sure because don't have deep knowledge.

read this reddit thread, and explain if possible.
https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/12ejf4e/recession_highly_likely/

Yes, it is also important to monitor economic indicators and consider potential risks in the market. I think it is always wise to approach investing with caution and seek advice from professionals with expertise in the field as the other possibilities and impact are influenced by many factors. These factors include but are not limited to consumer spending, inflation, employment, GDP and interest rates.

While some economic indicators may point to a possible recession, it is important to consider various sources of information and seek expert guidance before making any investment decisions. As always, investors should diversify their portfolios and prepare for a potential economic downturn.

[Husires]

OPEC's recent oil production cuts are a real concern for the world economy. They do not seem to care about the crisis or recession of the world economy, what they want is to keep the oil price high to make a profit. In the long run, this will most likely cause inflation to rise again, and we will fall into an inevitable recession.

We cannot blame OPEC+ for the cuts in production because, however, oil prices did not increase significantly. The dollar is tied to the value of oil, and a drop in oil below $60 a barrel will harm the world more than an increase in prices.

If the price of oil drops sharply, it will not contribute to moving the economic wheel because what is happening now in terms of inflation is not directly related to oil prices, but rather the Federal Reserve’s policy of raising interest rates has harmed countries a lot, not to mention the problems from the year 2020.

Low prices mean a lack of future investments, which means that once the factories return to work with all their capacity, there will not be enough supply, and therefore the price of a barrel will easily rise to more than $150.

[boltz]

The recession is not impossible to come down on some countries with the way things have turned out. One major factor that can make this recession hit different continent (if it has not already) the increase in inflation and high unemployment rate. These two factors have relationship with finance either incoming finance or out going finance. When there is no source of income, that is an indication that there is recession either on a family level or country.

To prepare for recession properly, my suggestion is to increase the level of manufacturing by the government and this will support the unemployed and the proceed goes back to the society which will add to the reserve.

This is Definitely why many experts thinks recession is lurking around in the new future and not inevitable. Although the GDP has continued to raise and this has easy many minds about the risks of recession but if we look carefully the inflation rates are increasing gradually although it is a good thing to control the production of a country and the demands of the products but should it continue it will affect the wage’s earnings and people might seek to ask for increase in wages. We all know most of these companies runs on loans and even during the lower interest rate period it was hard to get one so this could actually result into layoffs of workers by most of these companies. Although the government is trying to cool down the economy but in the bid the amount of employment created has reduced drastically and in near future the unemployment rate will just increase more posing threat of recession.

The situation is not pretty at all and we can all feel it on our daily buyouts and goods but it's great that we have history charts to study so at least we can have a clue of what can happen in next years. If this trend continues , and most likely it will be like this all 2023 , we can only hope that it won't be worse than it currently is because inflation lately took a break and we are not on the rise like we were 1 year ago. If somehow , we can stop inflation in 2024 or why not , reverse the trend entirely , then we will clearly have an economy on the rise once again and this will apply in all domains , with Bitcoin most likely having the biggest rise in price.

Until then , I personally hope for a friendly current year of 2023 when nothing is certain so far.

[passwordnow]

.. do not forget about OPEC limiting oil supplies on a daily basis. The heck is happening on this world, even with a recession only the rich becomes richer.

OPEC's recent oil production cuts are a real concern for the world economy. They do not seem to care about the crisis or recession of the world economy, what they want is to keep the oil price high to make a profit. In the long run, this will most likely cause inflation to rise again, and we will fall into an inevitable recession.

Many have happened to our world over the past two years, and this will not end anytime soon if the war of the great powers in Ukraine does not end soon. Only when the war is over can we expect the economy's stability.

That's true, whoever controls OPEC is controlling the world now honestly. With war and demand increasing for oil because of it, they're also doing something that's off to everyone to make the demand higher and lesser supply in the market. It's really a big concern for every country's economy. Basically, it's a domino effect when oil price hikes and these rich people that are part of it don't feel it because they're all set for life but too many folks are affected by this move.