BTC Sentiment Poll for June

[dragonvslinux]

And I guess sideways would look like this?



After the bounce, it looks like we're going back to how it was going prior to it.

Surprising to see most people vote sideways for a change. It's a good sign that people aren't too bullish right now at least, even if maybe they should be a bit more bearish given the current correction.

As for the sideways theory, I'm not too convinced. Once price eventually reaches $25K level, that's looking increasingly likely, it will either act as support or fail imo, rather than any prolonged attempt to hold it as support. I say this as there is a lot of fear in the market right now with what the SEC is up to, even if it doesn't directly effect Bitcoin what so ever, people are still selling regardless it seems.

Personally I still find it more likely for price to re-test around $23K, potentially with a more capitulation style candle/event given the current market sentiment, followed by a swiftly returning back above $25K. Not so dissimilar to $20K correction that quickly returned to $25K. Despite the background noise, I don't see much different so far with the current correction than that of March. The only difference is we haven't seen the quick move to the downside yet, but instead a slow grind downwards with low volume or support, but I think we are getting closer to an increase in volatility in order for lower prices to arrive.

There's a couple of guys who voted for it to go up.  It's going to be funny if they're the two guys who got it right.

Well it certainly wouldn't be out the question. Price is only down -5% this month, so ending the month >$27.2K would indeed be an up month, even if potentially not by a lot.

Anyway, I think the couple of sell downs that went to 25.3k could qualify for '25k' as it's more about the range than the actual number with these things.  So some room for error is fine imo.  But yeah...  Things are starting to move up to 26k again with some resistance.  Looks like it's not gonna be smooth sailing and your 23k call could happen.  :/

I agree that $25.3k could well qualify as testing $25K, as the previous highs were only around $50 less than that. However the issue I currently see is the close below the 200 WMA which will signal caution for many investors, even speculators, at least until it is reclaimed. At present, the $26.3K to $26.5K is now acting as resistance, where the 20 as well as 200 WMA are based, even if the week is still young.



I'd have much preferred a re-test of $25K prior to closing strong back above the 200 WMA, which would have signalled strength in the market. But instead last weeks close only signalled weakness. Hence without the combination of $25K previous resistance turning into new support, along with confirming the 200 WMA as support, I see the next realistic downside target as around $23K, close to the 50 Week MA.

Let's see what happens when US session starts in around 30 mins from now.

I'm not sure this is that relevant at present, as it's only relevant when traditional markets and Bitcoin are correlated, whereas in the past 5 weeks Bitcoin has corrected and S&P has broken to the upside, so there is now a short-term inverse correlation. While this could be a lagging indicator for a Bitcoin break-out in the near future, this still remains to be seen as price continues generally to the downside.

[1714588128]

1714588128

[1714588128]

1714588128

[1714588128]

1714588128

[Pierre 2]

I picked nope as option but I expected people to pick sideways. Latest peak was something done and closed as resistance of bulls were weak. I think we are definitely in sideways type of balanced markets BUT bears sort of determine where price will go, not bulls. So bullish moves always captured by bears and stopped rather quickly. I guess june won't be our best month indeed. I feel like july may be lot more better if June keeps on going sideways.

[doomloop]

Meanwhile, in my opinion, the sentiment in June is still very bearish, because some bad news came such as Binance vs SEC,
Coinbase vs SEC and several exchanges that went bankrupt,
this is why good news like China which legalized cryptocurrencies still can't make the market bullish.

To be honest, I was already bearish about Bitcoin even before all this SEC targeting exchanges thing came to the surface, I knew that Bitcoin will go below $25k or maybe around $22k which we might see very soon, the price wasn't being able to hold itself above $27k before there wasn't much support or buying pressure from investors as everyone was expecting a further dip.

Now with all this bad news circulating in the market and retail investors panicking, I don't see it going up anytime soon until things settle down after all these cases are done with, if exchanges face defeat, we should expect the price to dip even further.

[dansus021]

I'd have much preferred a re-test of $25K prior to closing strong back above the 200 WMA, which would have signalled strength in the market. But instead last weeks close only signalled weakness. Hence without the combination of $25K previous resistance turning into new support, along with confirming the 200 WMA as support, I see the next realistic downside target as around $23K, close to the 50 Week MA.

I'm pretty much agrees with you re-test of 25K is very high at this point, especially with the SEC news and we didn't see good news too from here. Tho the 25K is now becoming a support zone from the previous resistance zone it seems 30K zone can break if the good news comes or maybe next month or August seems very hard to break tho

is the blue line the 200 WMA and is that volume profile in right of your chart?

[tokeweed]

And I guess sideways would look like this?



After the bounce, it looks like we're going back to how it was going prior to it.

Surprising to see most people vote sideways for a change. It's a good sign that people aren't too bullish right now at least, even if maybe they should be a bit more bearish given the current correction.

As for the sideways theory, I'm not too convinced. Once price eventually reaches $25K level, that's looking increasingly likely, it will either act as support or fail imo, rather than any prolonged attempt to hold it as support. I say this as there is a lot of fear in the market right now with what the SEC is up to, even if it doesn't directly effect Bitcoin what so ever, people are still selling regardless it seems.

Personally I still find it more likely for price to re-test around $23K, potentially with a more capitulation style candle/event given the current market sentiment, followed by a swiftly returning back above $25K. Not so dissimilar to $20K correction that quickly returned to $25K. Despite the background noise, I don't see much different so far with the current correction than that of March. The only difference is we haven't seen the quick move to the downside yet, but instead a slow grind downwards with low volume or support, but I think we are getting closer to an increase in volatility in order for lower prices to arrive.

There's a couple of guys who voted for it to go up.  It's going to be funny if they're the two guys who got it right.

Well it certainly wouldn't be out the question. Price is only down -5% this month, so ending the month >$27.2K would indeed be an up month, even if potentially not by a lot.

Anyway, I think the couple of sell downs that went to 25.3k could qualify for '25k' as it's more about the range than the actual number with these things.  So some room for error is fine imo.  But yeah...  Things are starting to move up to 26k again with some resistance.  Looks like it's not gonna be smooth sailing and your 23k call could happen.  :/

I agree that $25.3k could well qualify as testing $25K, as the previous highs were only around $50 less than that. However the issue I currently see is the close below the 200 WMA which will signal caution for many investors, even speculators, at least until it is reclaimed. At present, the $26.3K to $26.5K is now acting as resistance, where the 20 as well as 200 WMA are based, even if the week is still young.



I'd have much preferred a re-test of $25K prior to closing strong back above the 200 WMA, which would have signalled strength in the market. But instead last weeks close only signalled weakness. Hence without the combination of $25K previous resistance turning into new support, along with confirming the 200 WMA as support, I see the next realistic downside target as around $23K, close to the 50 Week MA.

Let's see what happens when US session starts in around 30 mins from now.

I'm not sure this is that relevant at present, as it's only relevant when traditional markets and Bitcoin are correlated, whereas in the past 5 weeks Bitcoin has corrected and S&P has broken to the upside, so there is now a short-term inverse correlation. While this could be a lagging indicator for a Bitcoin break-out in the near future, this still remains to be seen as price continues generally to the downside.

And as we were talking about 25.3k being qualified to be '25k', the real 25k was tested and was broken.  :/  If the daily candle doesn't close above 25k - 25.3k and it establishes itself as resistance, it looks like BTC could go back down to 19.5k - 20k range.  

And I'm not really sure why you're saying support is at 23k because this is what I'm looking at...  25k or so was tested twice during August and Feb, before finally breaking out at March.  Now it seems like it has flipped back to being resistance.

[dragonvslinux]

And I'm not really sure why you're saying support is at 23k because this is what I'm looking at...  25k or so was tested twice during August and Feb, before finally breaking out at March.  Now it seems like it has flipped back to being resistance.

It's because $23K is the volume support, whereas there isn't a lot of support volume between $24K and $26.5K. It's also very close to the 200 Day MA* currently around $22.5K that within the coming days will be at $23K. As you can see there is increasing volume support from $25K down to $23K, but similar to the correction in March, price came down to the peak of this volume support before reversing to the upside.



In summary, the same reason I was bullish about $20K acting as support, while others were fearing much worse prices, is more of the less the exact same reason why I see $23K acting as a support level. Arguably there is more chance of $23K acting as support than there was of $20K back in March, as back then the 200 DMA was barely rising, whereas now it's been in an uptrend for the past 3 months.

It's also partially due to the market mentally. Most were/are expecting $25K to act as support, somewhat similar to those who thought $22K/$23K would act as support back in March, whereas instead it failed. If most people expect old resistance to turn into new support it probably won't, especially with price effectively in a neutral zone between the 50 Day MA (declining bearish) and 200 Day MA (rising bullish).

Naturally I'd have a completely different opinion if for example the re-test of $25K was in line with some other support level, like the 50 Day MA, or otherwise the 200 Day MA, but this isn't the case. Old resistance on it's own turning into new support just seems unlikely to me, especially now the 200 WMA has broken. Whereas the confluence of support as described at $23K looks a lot more appealing to me.

Also the 50 Week MA has just started trending back upwards in the past few weeks for the first time in around 18 months and is priced around $22.5K. This is usually a defining factor or a confirmed trend reversal, similar to January 2022 when it flipped bearish, even if somewhat delayed. In summary, if $25K is the short-term support level, $22K to $23K is the long-term support level here.

*Had the wrong MA on that chart, it should have been the 200 which is currently at $23.7K (not 260 ie 5 year which is at $22.5K).

[uchegod-21]

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!



June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

[ningrum]

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

For almost 2 weeks Bitcoin is still in range $25k to $28k,
and at the end of this week bitcoin has not made any big movements it can be sure that it is sideways this month,
indeed the market looks boring and volatile for altcoins,
look at bitcoin only dropping -2% to -5% and altcoin prices are down up to -10% to -25%.

[ShowOff]

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/15/AxORo.jpeg

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

I also don't think June will look like a sideway as bitcoin prices tend to fall and test new support. $24k has been support in the last 24 hours although currently the price has bounced slightly above $25k.

But ultimately I think June will also show some upside to counter the FUD that's going on. The SEC is urged to protect investors rather than drown them with its attacks on Binance and other exchanges, so the impact is bound to diminish gradually. So from that some other positives should also support the upside although I can't expect any bullishness in the near term.

[Kemarit]

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

For almost 2 weeks Bitcoin is still in range $25k to $28k,
and at the end of this week bitcoin has not made any big movements it can be sure that it is sideways this month,
indeed the market looks boring and volatile for altcoins,
look at bitcoin only dropping -2% to -5% and altcoin prices are down up to -10% to -25%.

Not just for 2 weeks, we have been in this sideways training for months now if I'm not mistaken. At the start of May, the market we've experience price drop and then this pattern emerges. And with the negative news about SEC vs Binance, it continue to go down hard. In the last 24 hours, we have seen the price really dumping and at highs of $24,000. The good thing is that we have a good bounce back today, not sure why the reason of the sudden plunge in a day, like -2% very quick. But the price has recovered from where it was, currently at $25,600+ and we might go back to $26,000. And another positive news is that we were able to hold the support like of $25,000. Because if not, then obviously we might go down to $23,000.

[tokeweed]

And I'm not really sure why you're saying support is at 23k because this is what I'm looking at...  25k or so was tested twice during August and Feb, before finally breaking out at March.  Now it seems like it has flipped back to being resistance.

It's because $23K is the volume support, whereas there isn't a lot of support volume between $24K and $26.5K. It's also very close to the 200 Day MA* currently around $22.5K that within the coming days will be at $23K. As you can see there is increasing volume support from $25K down to $23K, but similar to the correction in March, price came down to the peak of this volume support before reversing to the upside.



In summary, the same reason I was bullish about $20K acting as support, while others were fearing much worse prices, is more of the less the exact same reason why I see $23K acting as a support level. Arguably there is more chance of $23K acting as support than there was of $20K back in March, as back then the 200 DMA was barely rising, whereas now it's been in an uptrend for the past 3 months.

It's also partially due to the market mentally. Most were/are expecting $25K to act as support, somewhat similar to those who thought $22K/$23K would act as support back in March, whereas instead it failed. If most people expect old resistance to turn into new support it probably won't, especially with price effectively in a neutral zone between the 50 Day MA (declining bearish) and 200 Day MA (rising bullish).

Naturally I'd have a completely different opinion if for example the re-test of $25K was in line with some other support level, like the 50 Day MA, or otherwise the 200 Day MA, but this isn't the case. Old resistance on it's own turning into new support just seems unlikely to me, especially now the 200 WMA has broken. Whereas the confluence of support as described at $23K looks a lot more appealing to me.

Also the 50 Week MA has just started trending back upwards in the past few weeks for the first time in around 18 months and is priced around $22.5K. This is usually a defining factor or a confirmed trend reversal, similar to January 2022 when it flipped bearish, even if somewhat delayed. In summary, if $25K is the short-term support level, $22K to $23K is the long-term support level here.

*Had the wrong MA on that chart, it should have been the 200 which is currently at $23.7K (not 260 ie 5 year which is at $22.5K).

Ah right.  Maybe I should start looking at the volume too next time as mostly I've just been looking at the price action when looking for support, resistance and when they flip.

Is the blue and yellow area graph on the right all the liquidity in the order book?  Makes sense if it is.  But the thing is traders can pull their orders out anytime.  So I'd not put too much stock in it.

Anyway, yesterday's daily candle closed above 25k - 25.3k and it's holding today.

[dragonvslinux]

And I'm not really sure why you're saying support is at 23k because this is what I'm looking at...  25k or so was tested twice during August and Feb, before finally breaking out at March.  Now it seems like it has flipped back to being resistance.

It's because $23K is the volume support, whereas there isn't a lot of support volume between $24K and $26.5K. It's also very close to the 200 Day MA* currently around $22.5K that within the coming days will be at $23K. As you can see there is increasing volume support from $25K down to $23K, but similar to the correction in March, price came down to the peak of this volume support before reversing to the upside.



In summary, the same reason I was bullish about $20K acting as support, while others were fearing much worse prices, is more of the less the exact same reason why I see $23K acting as a support level. Arguably there is more chance of $23K acting as support than there was of $20K back in March, as back then the 200 DMA was barely rising, whereas now it's been in an uptrend for the past 3 months.

It's also partially due to the market mentally. Most were/are expecting $25K to act as support, somewhat similar to those who thought $22K/$23K would act as support back in March, whereas instead it failed. If most people expect old resistance to turn into new support it probably won't, especially with price effectively in a neutral zone between the 50 Day MA (declining bearish) and 200 Day MA (rising bullish).

Naturally I'd have a completely different opinion if for example the re-test of $25K was in line with some other support level, like the 50 Day MA, or otherwise the 200 Day MA, but this isn't the case. Old resistance on it's own turning into new support just seems unlikely to me, especially now the 200 WMA has broken. Whereas the confluence of support as described at $23K looks a lot more appealing to me.

Also the 50 Week MA has just started trending back upwards in the past few weeks for the first time in around 18 months and is priced around $22.5K. This is usually a defining factor or a confirmed trend reversal, similar to January 2022 when it flipped bearish, even if somewhat delayed. In summary, if $25K is the short-term support level, $22K to $23K is the long-term support level here.

*Had the wrong MA on that chart, it should have been the 200 which is currently at $23.7K (not 260 ie 5 year which is at $22.5K).

Ah right.  Maybe I should start looking at the volume too next time as mostly I've just been looking at the price action when looking for support, resistance and when they flip.

Personally I've found that volume is key, not just support/resistance, MAs and other indicators. Volume is ultimately were the "interest" from buyers & sellers lies.

Is the blue and yellow area graph on the right all the liquidity in the order book?  Makes sense if it is.  But the thing is traders can pull their orders out anytime.  So I'd not put too much stock in it.

Nothing to do with order book, this is a common misconception. It's purely buying/selling volume. Yellow is buying and blue is selling.

Anyway, yesterday's daily candle closed above 25k - 25.3k and it's holding today.

Despite my pessimism about $25K acting as support, there is certainly buying pressure from this level. Currently observing >$26K and it look promising. I'd still be surprised if price managed to reverse from this level, rather than remain in the downtrend channel and continue lower, but can't argue there is certainly buying pressure. How the Weekly closes could be of interest at this point.

[uchegod-21]

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/15/AxORo.jpeg

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

I also don't think June will look like a sideway as bitcoin prices tend to fall and test new support. $24k has been support in the last 24 hours although currently the price has bounced slightly above $25k.

But ultimately I think June will also show some upside to counter the FUD that's going on. The SEC is urged to protect investors rather than drown them with its attacks on Binance and other exchanges, so the impact is bound to diminish gradually. So from that some other positives should also support the upside although I can't expect any bullishness in the near term.

The June is fast in recovery. Bitcoin doesn't want to settle long below 25k and that is why it had to bounce back with 24hrs from 24k to 26k. That is a decent shortest term movement and I believe some people benefited from it.

Talking about SEC being able to secure and protect people's investment and not to do otherwise. Sec is only interested in the interests of bond and stock investors, while they are in daily war with exchanges in determination of security coins.

[STT]

Clearly Im a trading god, or possibly it just bounced in a fairly predictable area after some slightly more positive news and a dollar index moving down.   All factors which can help but to complete this move in a proper way not just a ping pong back and forth action we really need to recover above and confirm the 50 day average regularly as below BTC price action.  At present we are capped by prior negative action and that is not dispelled by one day especially.

[karabiber]

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!



June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

We can focus on the price with the important developments in June, the current status of the institutions and other details. Major events on the macro front for Bitcoin had a huge impact in June. I would say SEC lawsuits are the most important of them. In the first week of May, we saw the sales of investors who bought billions of dollars of BTC in January. This caused a serious decline in the markets. The decrease in the effectiveness of market makers such as Jump Trading dried up the liquidity at the same time.

As a result we see shallow liquidity and low volatility. It is not possible for the historically low volatility of Bitcoin price to continue in this way. We could see a big price move in both directions soon. I think closings above $27k will push the Bitcoin price above $30k in the short term. The low volatility period can be completed with an upside breakout.

[newdevices]

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/15/AxORo.jpeg

June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

I also don't think June will look like a sideway as bitcoin prices tend to fall and test new support. $24k has been support in the last 24 hours although currently the price has bounced slightly above $25k.

But ultimately I think June will also show some upside to counter the FUD that's going on. The SEC is urged to protect investors rather than drown them with its attacks on Binance and other exchanges, so the impact is bound to diminish gradually. So from that some other positives should also support the upside although I can't expect any bullishness in the near term.

The June is fast in recovery. Bitcoin doesn't want to settle long below 25k and that is why it had to bounce back with 24hrs from 24k to 26k. That is a decent shortest term movement and I believe some people benefited from it.

Talking about SEC being able to secure and protect people's investment and not to do otherwise. Sec is only interested in the interests of bond and stock investors, while they are in daily war with exchanges in determination of security coins.

Bitcoin has gone up to $26k and the next target is $27k and even $30k,
but we also have to remember that this is a weekend, where manipulation often occurs,
so hopefully this isn't a Bull Trap, and hopefully yesterday was a bear trap.

[fzkto]

Clearly Im a trading god, or possibly it just bounced in a fairly predictable area after some slightly more positive news and a dollar index moving down.   All factors which can help but to complete this move in a proper way not just a ping pong back and forth action we really need to recover above and confirm the 50 day average regularly as below BTC price action.  At present we are capped by prior negative action and that is not dispelled by one day especially.

Bitcoin did make a nice bounce on Friday, but if you look at the larger timeframes, it could be looking like a downtrending highs. You are correct in saying that for a subsequent uptrend it needs to break resistance, but so far it looks like a local downtrend.

[_BlackStar]

-snip-

Bitcoin did make a nice bounce on Friday, but if you look at the larger timeframes, it could be looking like a downtrending highs. You are correct in saying that for a subsequent uptrend it needs to break resistance, but so far it looks like a local downtrend.

Local downtrend - what do you mean?

The downtrend should have ended if you do the analysis on 1 month TF. The market has gone through a long bearish period at the last year or over 13 months - but I think the bullish start to the recovery process has been there since 2023. However, bitcoin broke through the $31k resistance in April albeit only moments before being followed by a two month long correction. But I believe that resistance will be tested again during June or July, so keep your optimism well.

[Baofeng]

HELLO JUNE OF WONDERS!



June isn't obeying anyone's predictions. I see no moon in June, I see no side movement in June. All I see I digging and digging down the well. June want to reach 20k and it is so determined. What will stop it from happening. Indeed, cryptocurrency is unpredictable.
With the beautiful performance of last two months,  I really thought bitcoin will do more and hit 30k this month. Bit it seems the dream is dashed.

Nah, it is still going sideways and that's what the majority has voted as well. But I do agree that we are not going to see moon this June. And if you look at June historical logs, it's didn't look good at all so the pattern continues.

It's interesting to see where our support line is, and currently it is still $25k, we have retested that line and yet it covered nicely and it did bounce to $26k++. So we recovered from that critical level. And I think we are still going to be very bullish in the long term.

[fzkto]

-snip-

Bitcoin did make a nice bounce on Friday, but if you look at the larger timeframes, it could be looking like a downtrending highs. You are correct in saying that for a subsequent uptrend it needs to break resistance, but so far it looks like a local downtrend.

Local downtrend - what do you mean?

The downtrend should have ended if you do the analysis on 1 month TF. The market has gone through a long bearish period at the last year or over 13 months - but I think the bullish start to the recovery process has been there since 2023. However, bitcoin broke through the $31k resistance in April albeit only moments before being followed by a two month long correction. But I believe that resistance will be tested again during June or July, so keep your optimism well.

The global down trend ended last December when the price was around 15k. But now I see a local downtrend on the weekly and four-day charts. You can clearly see that the highs of the price have been declining since April. That is, the price has been declining for two months now, which could be called a local downtrend rather than a correction.