Bitcoin price speculation (BTC/NGN), and USD.

[Charles-Tim]

In the last four days, bitcoin was almost ₦28 million, but it dropped some hours ago below ₦22 million. Now at  ₦22,872,883. Some analysts think that the reason for the drop is because people see bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) not profitable and dump it to move to other assets. Maybe this is or maybe is not correct, we know that as bitcoin drop in price is an opportunity for other people to buy at a lower price.

I can see naira value is increasing after the president met the acting CBN governor and also as NNPCL secures $3bn loan from African Export-Import Bank (AFREXIM). After the President meeting with the CBN governor, people are likely not willing to buy dollar because of what they heard the meeting is about, to find ways naira in the parallel market is drawn back to N750/$1.

The fall of bitcoin, and naira appreciation in the last four days after the the meeting, the value of naira increased against bitcoin. But we all know where this will end to, fiat of a developing nation like Nigeria will depreciate overtime. People will see bitcoin cheaper and able to afford more bitcoin as the price dropped.

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[Agbe]

This morning price and before evening it will still drop again. Below is 1 BTC to Naira

Those who want to buy should prepare because the way the market is coming rapidly, it will still go down below. Or they can still purchase it now because nobody knows the next move in the market.

I can see naira value is increasing after the president met the acting CBN governor and also as NNPCL secures $3bn loan from African Export-Import Bank (AFREXIM). After the President meeting with the CBN governor, people are likely not willing to buy dollar because of what they heard the meeting is about, to find ways naira in the parallel market is drawn back to N750/$1.

The fall of bitcoin, and naira appreciation in the last four days after the the meeting, the value of naira increased against bitcoin. But we all know where this will end to, fiat of a developing nation like Nigeria will depreciate overtime. People will see bitcoin cheaper and able to afford more bitcoin as the price dropped.

Everyone president that has served the country liked to make naira valuable more even than the dollar itself but the international forces refused to allow that to happened and the president were even forced to devalue the naira. There are sometimes, the international forces used programmes to lure the Africans leaders to devalue their currencies.
The decrease of bitcoin to naira e dey affect oo. Well it will not long.

[Mate2237]

Like two days now the price was on $25+k and and today this morning and when I checked the price is going up again. So what I am trying to predict before this month end is that since the market is showing positive sign now it might end well in this month and might reach back to $28k to $29k though the movement of price to go up is always slower than falling down.  In this morning the price is $26,138 with a green color colour and that indicates that the is on the positive position.

But there are times the price will show positive way with the green light but the price would be coming down until the positive sign would changed to red colour again and that is why the price is unpredictable. We can't use the sight to predict bitcoin price but the tools can do that very well but to understand the tools na another wahala.

[Coyster]

Some analysts think that the reason for the drop is because people see bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) not profitable and dump it to move to other assets. Maybe this is or maybe is not correct, we know that as bitcoin drop in price is an opportunity for other people to buy at a lower price.

Bitcoin has never been stable, drop and rise in its price happens all time, so i am surprised at analysts who think this current dump is as a result of Bitcoin not being profitable anymore. Well, i have never been interested in the opinion of people who analyse the market in this way, sometimes they just want to spread fud and manipulate the market to their very own advantage.

The fall of bitcoin, and naira appreciation in the last four days after the the meeting, the value of naira increased against bitcoin. But we all know where this will end to, fiat of a developing nation like Nigeria will depreciate overtime. People will see bitcoin cheaper and able to afford more bitcoin as the price dropped.

I wasn't aware of the meeting between the president and the CBN governor until i read your post, though i noticed the appreciation of the Naira against the dollar a few days ago, thus i guess this is part of the reason for that appreciation. The thing is, this appreciation wouldn't last long, i thought the government wanted to establish a unified rate between the official and parallel market, but as we can see that hasn't worked out too well, with the demand for dollar and insufficient reserves, coupled with a struggling economy and zero local production, the Naira will definitely lose more grounds in the coming weeks/months.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

Like two days now the price was on $25+k and and today this morning and when I checked the price is going up again. So what I am trying to predict before this month end is that since the market is showing positive sign now it might end well in this month and might reach back to $28k to $29k though the movement of price to go up is always slower than falling down.  In this morning the price is $26,138 with a green color colour and that indicates that the is on the positive position.

Yes, I can also see that on the chart that Bitcoin is managing to gain momentum to increase in price once again after the great fall we all experience which started on the 16th August 2023. Because at the moment of writing this post Bitcoin is currently at $26,033 which is a $100 difference from what you had earlier on today. But however, I just saw that of all the coins that fell in price with Bitcoin, Stellar is the only coin that have manage to gain value again above 4%, as the rest popular coins are still struggling below 2%. And with the look of things, we are still likely to have BTC revolving around $25k, $26k and $27k till this month runs out.

 

[Charles-Tim]

Bitcoin has never been stable, drop and rise in its price happens all time, so i am surprised at analysts who think this current dump is as a result of Bitcoin not being profitable anymore.

Bitcoin can not be stable, but sometimes it can become less volatile. Before it fell below $28500 recently, the price has been less volatile within $29000 and $30000.

Do not mind that I used dollar instead of naira for this, because naira was very volatile itself recently as it increased from ₦750 to ₦945 in weeks, back to ₦835 and increasing back again to now ₦880 after the lower bollinger band was gotten to.

Bitcoin was unable to increased to make investors make profit and it can be discouraging at times. Although, no one knows the actual cause of bitcoin price fall, all are just guesses.

I wasn't aware of the meeting between the president and the CBN governor until i read your post, though i noticed the appreciation of the Naira against the dollar a few days ago, thus i guess this is part of the reason for that appreciation. The thing is, this appreciation wouldn't last long, i thought the government wanted to establish a unified rate between the official and parallel market, but as we can see that hasn't worked out too well, with the demand for dollar and insufficient reserves, coupled with a struggling economy and zero local production, the Naira will definitely lose more grounds in the coming weeks/months.

It is even like traders are at work with technical analyses after naira fell to ₦835:

[Sim_card]

I said let me ask from experts as am not satisfied with my thoughts. When bitcoin was above 28k,the exchange rate of Naira to USD was around 900+ but now that bitcoin price has dumped to 25+-26+,the exchange rate of Naira fell to 830+ to 840+. Is it that the price of bitcoin is affecting both USD and Naira because I don't know when Naira has become as volatile as this. Or is it because of the inflation that we are experiencing or it is normal that this price flatuation in Naira ? Or bitcoin price controls money either digital or paper.

[Charles-Tim]

I said let me ask from experts as am not satisfied with my thoughts. When bitcoin was above 28k,the exchange rate of Naira to USD was around 900+ but now that bitcoin price has dumped to 25+-26+,the exchange rate of Naira fell to 830+ to 840+. Is it that the price of bitcoin is affecting both USD and Naira because I don't know when Naira has become as volatile as this. Or is it because of the inflation that we are experiencing or it is normal that this price flatuation in Naira ? Or bitcoin price controls money either digital or paper.

Naira is affected by Nigeria economy and by what is happening in Nigeria. If Nigerians are demanding more for dollar and continuing to depend on imports, the naira value will continue to reduce which is the problem we have in Nigeria.

But recently, the president had a meeting with CBN president, the CBN president said they will do somethings that will add value to naira which led to the market reaction that makes people to be selling dollar and buy naira which increased naira price from ₦945 back to less than ₦880 to a dollar. What also makes naira value to increase more was the money NNPCL borrowed recently and they are pointing that it would strengthen naira. You know how the market can react to something like this. Or maybe it had direct effect also but which I do not know.

Bitcoin is controlled separately by buyers and sellers. The more the demand the more the price. If people are selling bitcoin than buying it, the price will fall which was what that plummeted its price recently from over ₦28 million to ₦21,894,000 million. But as naira increases in value, this will decrease the price of bitcoin in relation to naira but which may be unnoticeable as bitcoin price plummeted abruptly and significanly with a short time.

The value of naira is decreasing again and has gone up from ₦835 to ₦879 to a dollar as of today.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

I said let me ask from experts as am not satisfied with my thoughts. When bitcoin was above 28k,the exchange rate of Naira to USD was around 900+ but now that bitcoin price has dumped to 25+-26+,the exchange rate of Naira fell to 830+ to 840+. Is it that the price of bitcoin is affecting both USD and Naira because I don't know when Naira has become as volatile as this. Or is it because of the inflation that we are experiencing or it is normal that this price flatuation in Naira ? Or bitcoin price controls money either digital or paper.

Naira is affected by Nigeria economy and by what is happening in Nigeria. If Nigerians are demanding more for dollar and continuing to depend on imports, the naira value will continue to reduce which is the problem we have in Nigeria.

Bitcoin is controlled separately by buyers and sellers. The more the demand the more the price. If people are selling bitcoin than buying it, the price will fall.

Charles Tim has just answered your question in a more simplified manner, as both Naira (i.e fiat) and Bitcoin are two independent digital currencies, and taking a look at the chart of NGN/USD and BTC/USD, I was made to notice that the value of Naira started depreciating long before we saw the recent fall in the price of Bitcoin, as the value of Naira to dollar started falling from on 10th July 2023 @ #788/$1 till August 14th, 2023 at #933/$1, before the meeting we heard the president met with the governor of CBN and price got back to normal which today one dollar is been sold at the rate of approx. #850/$1.
Likewise Bitcoin,
I was able to notice that the price of Bitcoin also started falling from 14th August 2023 at $29,303/BTC till 19th August 2023 at $25,885/BTC, due to the rumor about SpaceX/Elon Musk selling it's Bitcoin worth multi millions of dollars. But now, Bitcoin is back revolving around $26k

[Coyster]

Bitcoin can not be stable, but sometimes it can become less volatile. Before it fell below $28500 recently, the price has been less volatile within $29000 and $30000.

+1, that is a sideway market/period, and quite rightly as you said Bitcoin has been like that for quite some time now before this plunge in the price happened. I am pretty certain day-traders enjoy this sort of movements in the price, either upward or even downward as they can short it, but for long term investors, they will be trying to purchase more coins.

Bitcoin was unable to increased to make investors make profit and it can be discouraging at times.

This will not happen to long term investors, and short term invesors would not want to sell if they are going to do so at a loss, but these things are not set in stone, and people sell when they want to and for their personal reasons too.

[Makus]

+1, that is a sideway market/period, and quite rightly as you said Bitcoin has been like that for quite some time now before this plunge in the price happened. I am pretty certain day-traders enjoy this sort of movements in the price, either upward or even downward as they can short it, but for long term investors, they will be trying to purchase more coins.

wasn't getting the whole point of the discussion about the price in a sideway trend, I thought the price was strictly in a bearish movement until I observed this


Source: https://www.google.com/search?q=bitcoin+price&sca_esv=558787020&ei=jY3jZL39CPq3hbIP4r2G0Ak&oq=bitcoin+p&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIgliaXRjb2luIHAqAggBMg4QABiKBRixAxiDARiRAjILEAAYigUYsQMYkQIyDhAAGIoFGLEDGIMBGJECMg4QABiKBRixAxiDARiRAjIOEAAYigUYsQMYgwEYkQIyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgARI8E5QmyNYrz9wAXgCkAEAmAHpBaABvBCqAQkzLTIuMC4xLjG4AQHIAQD4AQHCAgQQABhHwgIHEAAYgAQYCsICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAgoQABiKBRiwAxhDwgIWEC4YigUYxwEY0QMYyAMYsAMYQ9gBAcICEBAuGIoFGMgDGLADGEPYAQHCAggQABiKBRiRAsICCBAAGIAEGLED4gMEGAAgQYgGAZAGDroGBAgBGAg&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp
now I see that the market is really sideways, within a period of 7 hours and the price is just fluctuating

[Charles-Tim]

This will not happen to long term investors, and short term invesors would not want to sell if they are going to do so at a loss, but these things are not set in stone, and people sell when they want to and for their personal reasons too.

I accept this, bitcoin will later increase back to over ₦28.7 million and later reach all-time-high if holders can wait.

[Mate2237]

This will not happen to long term investors, and short term invesors would not want to sell if they are going to do so at a loss, but these things are not set in stone, and people sell when they want to and for their personal reasons too.

I accept this, bitcoin will later increase back to over ₦28.7 million and later reach all-time-high if holders can wait.

That is true but for bitcoin to up again, it will take time for like 3 to 4 months. The way I see the market movement bitcoin price will still come down and investors will use that opportunity to purchase more. But the anyhow people will still sell small units to pay bills and keep the rest for the rising time. I am speculating the price to come in the months November or December, and I am giving this prediction base on last year experience. In last year, the bear market started from April and the price came up in the month not November, so i am trying not see it from that side.

Selling of bitcoin is a personal choice whether high or low people must sell it because most of the investors that is their business for survival.

[Majestic-milf]

That is true but for bitcoin to up again, it will take time for like 3 to 4 months. The way I see the market movement bitcoin price will still come down 

I quite agree with this point of view. Since experiencing that hit last week Thursday, Bitcoin price has been struggling to regain it's feet, gravitating from $25,980 to 26,100 since Sunday. Now is another opportunity to buy and hold only if investors would not entertain FUD because some would rather invest in less volatile digital tokens than Bitcoin.
I'm quite hopeful that Bitcoin price will experience a positive turn in the month of September and while you mentioned that things could turn around during November, I can't help but harbor doubt especially as November is a month that's not so favorable but maybe this time could be different?
Presently, Bitcoin price is $26,063.60 as of time of writing.

[Nwada001]

It seems like the naira is tired of trying to prove some resistance. Just as Charles-Tim has predicted, after a significant drop, it will still later start going back up again. It started happening too fast, as I was expecting to see the dollar to naira exchange rate at N900 during the end of the month of August, but it appears that the drop to N860 did not last up to a week. as it has gained a 24-hour ATH of N928 and is currently trading at N901 as of the time of this post. and Bitcoin is currently trading at $26,043.72. It has been struggling between $25,700 and $26,000 for the past 24 hours, and I see that as a good sign of recovery, but it might perform the opposite if it appears to drop below $25,000.
With the current dollar to naira value, the current BTC/NGN price is now N23,464,743.

[EarnOnVictor]

I said let me ask from experts as am not satisfied with my thoughts. When bitcoin was above 28k,the exchange rate of Naira to USD was around 900+ but now that bitcoin price has dumped to 25+-26+,the exchange rate of Naira fell to 830+ to 840+. Is it that the price of bitcoin is affecting both USD and Naira because I don't know when Naira has become as volatile as this. Or is it because of the inflation that we are experiencing or it is normal that this price flatuation in Naira ? Or bitcoin price controls money either digital or paper.

Naira is affected by Nigeria economy and by what is happening in Nigeria. If Nigerians are demanding more for dollar and continuing to depend on imports, the naira value will continue to reduce which is the problem we have in Nigeria.

But recently, the president had a meeting with CBN president, the CBN president said they will do somethings that will add value to naira which led to the market reaction that makes people to be selling dollar and buy naira which increased naira price from ₦945 back to less than ₦880 to a dollar. What also makes naira value to increase more was the money NNPCL borrowed recently and they are pointing that it would strengthen naira. You know how the market can react to something like this. Or maybe it had direct effect also but which I do not know.

Bitcoin is controlled separately by buyers and sellers. The more the demand the more the price. If people are selling bitcoin than buying it, the price will fall which was what that plummeted its price recently from over ₦28 million to ₦21,894,000 million. But as naira increases in value, this will decrease the price of bitcoin in relation to naira but which may be unnoticeable as bitcoin price plummeted abruptly and significanly with a short time.

The value of naira is decreasing again and has gone up from ₦835 to ₦879 to a dollar as of today.

Nicely said, but one thing that is sure for me is that both FG and CBN are clueless about the current FX situation, hence, the naira will continue to dump against the USD and Bitcoin. You've correctly iterated the true cause of this which is more importation than exportation and too much foreign currency reliance causing a shortage of FX and in turn mounting further pressure on Naira.

As for the CBN acting govern, he is only making an empty threat and fruitless effort, he believes he can overcome the weed by cutting the surface. The effect of what he's doing will not last, he only used the speculative part that is causing the Naira depreciation to change the narrative, but for how long?

I conclude by saying that Naira will ever have the USD and Bitcoin to battle with powerlessly, and even if the USD is stable against it, BTC will not, it will eventually appreciate. It has sold already but holding well above the important barriers I see at $24,700-$25,00. It will be tough for BTC to breach those levels downwards, and if it can't and rather reverses higher, then it's another payday for those holding it against the Naira with a little reference to the USD.

[Mate2237]

In the bitcoin market not there is sign now to move up. For the few days it was about $26,060 or below but now it is moving upward and the price right now is $26,505 with a green color which means the price is going to be getting better from now.. there are different prediction in the price these days but normally the price can change at anytime and it is unpredictable. This is the reason who traders loss money in the market.

[Sim_card]

In the bitcoin market not there is sign now to move up. For the few days it was about $26,060 or below but now it is moving upward and the price right now is $26,505 with a green color which means the price is going to be getting better from now.. there are different prediction in the price these days but normally the price can change at anytime and it is unpredictable. This is the reason who traders loss money in the market.

This is the reason why trading is a very risky business and not for everyone. With the current price of bitcoin, it is advisable for on to just hodli so that you wouldn't run at loss. I don't know when we will see a pump in bitcoin price up to $30k but I know it will surely come to pass. All we need to do is to be patient and stay focus on how to get profit from the bull run. I hope that the value of Naria to bitcoin then will be very high. The current price of 1BTC is #19,928,752 at as when I made this post.

[Charles-Tim]

Which rate should we be using?

On Coingecko, Coinmarketcap and other sites similar to the two mentioned, I noticed the CBN or I&E rate are used. Likely CBN rate which is the official rate and calculated based on the weighted average of the I&E window rate.

On exchanges spot market and P2P, including vendors (direct P2P), parallel market (black market) rate is what we are using to exchange bitcoin.

As of the time that I posted this:
CBN/I&E rate weighted average rate: ₦20,156,590.21
Parallel/black market rate: ₦24,014,000.

I am suggesting that we can use anyone that we prefer, but having in brackets, the rate that we used.

Like this for illustration:
The price of bitcoin today increased from ₦20,156,590.2 to ₦21 million (CBN rate). Bitcoin traders...✓

Although, anyone you people used, we can easily know if it is either CBN rate or parallel rate even if not indicated.

I am suggesting you people to use the rate that you want, depending on the platform you get the rate from. But it would be better if you state if it is CBN or parallel market rate.

What do you think? Your opinion is what I will follow.  Although, I am good with parallel rate as well. But if CBN rate is used along with parallel market rate, I am just concerned about newbies not to get confused.

[Hatchy]

Right now, this is the price on Binance. I think I will go with @charles-Tim. The rate you choose to use should be indicated in brackets along side the exchange platform but remember the CBN rate.
Currently at

19,662,350.40NGN
-435,763.35 (2.17%)today
_{source google}

What do you think? Your opinion is what I will follow.  Although, I am good with parallel rate as well. But if CBN rate is used along with parallel market rate, I am just concerned about newbies not to get confused.

I believe using both rates is a good idea because it will help everyone understand better and avoid confusion. When we use both the CBN rate and parallel market rate, it gives a complete picture. We'll explain things clearly and provide helpful information, so even newbies, won't get confused. If they have any questions, they can always ask without hesitation.