Are the Predictions of Bitcoin Halving accurate?

[qwertyup23]

That's just an estimation.
Till now, 795767 blocks have been mined. This means that there are 44233 blocks until the next halving. Assuming these blocks will be mined at the rate of 1 per 10 minutes on average, the halving will be 442330 minutes or 307 days later.
This is exactly the time displayed on blockchair.com. Other websites may use different methods for predicting the halving date and that's why you may see different dats. For example, buybitcoinworldwide predicts halving to be 296 days later.

This is the answer- everything is based on estimation which is completely dependent on the mined blocks under the blockchain. If suddenly, people would not transact with BTC and miners would not confirm any transactions, the date of estimation on the halving would thus increase.

Though this may be the case, I seriously think that the coming halving will significantly impact the price of BTC in the market. By basing it purely on history, almost all halving increased the price of BTC, which makes this the perfect opportunity to HODL and/or invest for either short or long-term.

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[dothebeats]

Those were never accurate.

There will always be a variation on how fast each block is mined, and so with those variations adjusts the time that we reach the next halving point. AFAIK, those predictions are always pretty close to the exact thing, and each prediction becomes more accurate as more we get closer to the exact halving point.

Heck, even if we are 5 or so blocks away from the halving point, we'll still never get too accurate on our predictions.

[Yatsan]

Nope, just estimations. Also, if this question refers to the uptrend of the market, then another no. Although there would be an increase with market prices before rhe estimated date of halving,  but it won't be continuous in an instant. The market price would more likely move sideways due to high volume so manage the risk still.

So I recently came across this  Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

Well, judging by my experience from previous halvings these halving countdowns are not 100% correct. They do give an approximate idea on when halving is going to happen though. I think it's pretty safe to use to find out an approximate date.

Yes, also with what will happen. The idea that there will be a huge price increase is just because of what happened on the previous halving but realistically speaking, there's no guarantee of it and also, to when will the market price start to move. Just like what I've said, the price won't jump in a blink of an eye.

[serveria.com]

Nope, just estimations. Also, if this question refers to the uptrend of the market, then another no. Although there would be an increase with market prices before rhe estimated date of halving,  but it won't be continuous in an instant. The market price would more likely move sideways due to high volume so manage the risk still.

So I recently came across this  Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

Well, judging by my experience from previous halvings these halving countdowns are not 100% correct. They do give an approximate idea on when halving is going to happen though. I think it's pretty safe to use to find out an approximate date.

Yes, also with what will happen. The idea that there will be a huge price increase is just because of what happened on the previous halving but realistically speaking, there's no guarantee of it and also, to when will the market price start to move. Just like what I've said, the price won't jump in a blink of an eye.

In fact, most of the times we're going up in pulses or bursts. Most probably we're not going to reach or exceed ATH immediately but eventually we will. Something like a leg up into $50k area then some dump to $35-38k and the another burst into the ATH area etc etc...

[flyingcarpet]

So I recently came across this  Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

Approximate estimates are made. They take the average value of the time elapsed between blocks and do so. So probably none of them will find exactly the right time. Because this value can change. The exact time may not be known, but estimates give about a day. I think you should invest while there is so little time left in line with the estimates. The halving, which takes place every 4 years, offers us many opportunities.

If you always go with HODL, you won't miss what happened before and after the halving.

[Cricktor]

During a current difficulty epoch you can make predictions of average block intervalls until that epoch ends. Then difficulty is adjusted to yield again an average block intervall of 10min. So, halving predictors shouldn't extrapolate current difficulty epoch's average block intervalls different from 10min (as it seems the Binance predictor does, but I haven't verified), otherwise they'd neglect any difficulty adjustments which would be stupid.

I personally don't need a prediction to be accurate to the hour when it's still months ahead. Can't be accurate, anyway. The closer we get, the better the prediction. That's fine for me.

And by chance the time to mine block 840,000 could be anything between 1s and maybe up to 120min.

[Bananington]

Of the prediction is accurate. It is not like something that may happen. It's something that is already programmed to happen at the right time, which in this case should be between April -May 2024.
In the past as you stated, we witness how after this kind of event, the bullish season comes. It comes 3-6months after the halving.

It is said currently BTC is expected to be in a bullish season and I know it the right time to trade and make good profits too.
The halving may usher in new innovation in the network or an upgrade of a previous innovation to perform better in less time with less congestion.
For those who intend to HODL, during the halving please don't panic, the value of your coins, although smaller, would be as valuable as it remains intact.

[Faisal2202]

we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

These are based on the information that we have from the past, like, we already know when the last halving took place, and we also do know how many blocks will be mined before the next halving and we also do know how much time it usually takes for a block to mine, and then i think it is a simple math to calculate the halving.

And i do not think, the exact time is that important for people who are just speculating it for the bull run because the bull run does not come just after the halving, so basically, this timing is important for miners as they are the ones who will face reward reduction. But still, they will be compensated accordingly, as BTC always gives more in comparison to economic currencies.

[Latviand]

It's an estimation, each website that hosts the countdown have different clocks because all of them estimate when will that block that's going to cause the halving to be solved. To be honest, it's kind of weird that you put reliable and prediction in the same paragraph because prediction by definition should be unreliable since it's a hunch or a guess at best and reliable isn't really the best word for it. Maybe the word would probably be ballpark, inexact or approximate, maybe approximate is the best word.

[Nwada001]

I am not among those who believe in 100% accuracy, so I doubt this is 100% accurate. It might be a close prediction since, no doubt, we have a lot of people using machines and other things to make their calculations, but an accurate countdown is nearly impossible considering the time gap, which could possibly change in the near future.
 
A block confirmation time that was used to make that prediction might either reduce or increase, which will bring about a possible time difference. I could just say this is a near prediction since the difference might not be far from a 1-2 month difference.

[m2017]

~snip

How do you bitcoiners plan to prepare for bitcoin halving?

Also, I'm wondering why? Is it to wait for the price to rise sharply to btc? If so, where do these predictions come from? Traditionally, the (strong) rise in the price of bitcoin began with a delay, and not immediately after the halving.

Halving will happen one way or another. According to the timer or at other times. Which, in turn, will halve the reward to miners, lowering the availability of BTC. And this, in my opinion, is the most interesting thing.

[Eternad]

So I recently came across this  Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

 

The countdown is not accurate since it automatically adjust the end date based on the average speed of block being discovered. The halving date now on blockchair countdown that you provide is changed to Apr 27, 2024 1:59 AM UTC and will change more while we are approaching the target block. Its better to pay attention on the block count instead of date because that's what really matter on Bitcoin halving.

There's no way to determine an accurate date unless we are only few blocks away from the halving.

[freedomgo]

and as someone else said average this session is 9.89 meaning under 293 days.. a fortnight less

That's wrong.
There are 44229 blocks until the next halving and assuming that the next blocks will be mined with the average time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 437425 minutes or 303 days later. That's only 4 days less than the time predicted with considering average block time of 10 minutes.

That's true and what we have are just mere speculations or rather estimations about when will be the next bitcoin halving will happen and that's just the given situation by the platform considering that there is indeed a block that will be mined in every 10 minutes. In simple words, nobody can fully guarantee that the given predictions will exactly happen at the given time frame.
Anyway, we shouldn't be bothered about this thing because what's more important is to try and accumulate as much bitcoin as possible before the halving will happen as we likely know already what will happen after that.

[Ale88]

As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event.

After reading that now I am curious to know why, for you, it's so important to know the exact moment of the bitcoin halving, is there any specific reason? Is it because you mine bitcoin? Does it have to do with the price and eventual trading? I don't recall ever reading about anyone that needed to know this moment in such precise way...

[tabas]

You compare every website that has a countdown for the halving, not all of them are the same and that's why they're just putting some assumption that the time they set are gonna be the one where the block will be mined for that halving. I don't think that there's a need for it to be accurate with that unless you do really think that there's something important a person need to be accurate with that. Don't stress a lot with the accuracy because no matter what the countdown is and if they differ from each other, it will come.

There seems to be consensus that bitcoin halving will be experienced next year but the exact time of 2024 has been debated. Different crypto websites and analysts have their specific predictions. From my findings in different predicting websites, I think it will be difficult to know the exact minute, hour, or even day. But a summary of some of the websites visited puts the having date between February to June 2024. I am not also too concerned about the precise date because I am willing to wait till anything occurs next year. The actual halving time may be more important to Bitcoin traders.

Yes, that's it. The difference of the actual hour, date could vary but that's okay. Those dates or the actual time that the 840,000th block to be mined will certainly vary. The result is gonna be big for sure and we're all aware of that, could also be important to traders as you've said because buying pressures and demand might increase during the actual time it has been mined and the actual halving happens. For long term holders, it won't be that much important to know the time accurately because we're here to wait and wait and then find the right price and time for us to sell. I think soon, we'll see stats of these websites that have countdowns and will have the percentage of how accurate they are.

[panganib999]

It is a mere estimation based on the notion that one block is mined every 10 minutes with a little less than 44,000 block remaining to be mined until the reward for mining a block is slashed in half again. While these are just rough estimation based on these parameters they are great enough at teling people how relatively close we are to the next halving event which is good enough so to speak, since there’s really no greater incentive to knowing when the mext halving will come down to the last hour and minute other than the fact that you’ll probably announce it on twitter or facebook lmao.

[Blitzboy]

Tools like Blockchair give a rough sketch of Bitcoin halving, based on current mining rates and the 10-minute block addition rule. But, lets not carve these estimates in stone; they're mere projections, not exact truths. Mining speed sways due to a host of elements like network complexity tweaks and overall mining might. So, while these tools sketch an outline, pinpointing the exact halving day, let alone hour or minute, is a shot in the dark.

As Bitcoin and blockchain enthusiasts, we should understand foundational principles, rather than leaning entirely on prediction models. These forecasts, while handy, arent fail-safe. They're as precise as nailing the next raindrop's landing time

[franky1]

and as someone else said average this session is 9.89 meaning under 293 days.. a fortnight less

That's wrong.
There are 44229 blocks until the next halving and assuming that the next blocks will be mined with the average time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 437425 minutes or 303 days later. That's only 4 days less than the time predicted with considering average block time of 10 minutes.

hmm who said it oh it was you..

I just checked that and it's currently displaying the approximate block time of 9.89 minutes.
Also, they are now predicting that the halving will be 293 days later. It was 295 days later a few minutes ago.
..

I don't know how exactly they calculate the halving date. With the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

ok thanks for correcting yourself

[YUriy1991]

How do you bitcoiners plan to prepare for bitcoin halving?

Price predictions after the halving cannot be ascertained with certainty. Usually, the bitcoin price can go up after the halving but it takes time too. What is certain and visible and common is Bitcoiners to make forecasts of future prices while monitoring the price movements of BTC, other digital assets and market trends. plus there has been an increase in institutional adoption as well as an increase in public interest especially recently, all of which have had a significant impact on the Bitcoin economy.

Halving will happen one way or another. According to the timer or at other times. Which, in turn, will halve the reward to miners, lowering the availability of BTC. And this, in my opinion, is the most interesting thing.

That's right, The last halving took place on May 11, 2020 and the Bitcoin block subsidy has been halved to 6.25 BTC in that time. Therefore, if we use the average time estimate between the previous halves, we can assume that the next halving will occur around 2024 for the exact time of the bitcoin halving. I think it depends on the protocol rules programmed into the network.

[hosseinimr93]

ok thanks for correcting yourself

You misunderstood that post.
I said binance academy has predicted the halving to be 293 days later while they say the average block time is 9.89 minutes. I even shared the link.
In the next part of my post, I said that with considering the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

293 days was what displayed on binance academy and 303 days was what calculated by me.

I don't know how exactly they calculate the halving date. With the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.