Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin?

[Mahanton]

Depends on which cycle we have in my opinion, as you have said, the CME/CBoe enter when we are in peak of the bull run in 2017, pushing to a new all time high. But after that, it was all downhill for us and even if we have the Bakkt news, still it didn't have significant effect on 2019 and almost everyone here forget about Bakkt.

So maybe if there is a chance that ETF be approved next year and the timing for a block halving and then a bull run. For sure it might added a new set of FOMO and bullish case for a massive growth 2024-2025.

This is indeed true on which if these ETF's would really be getting in line with the current upcoming halving event or on the year where most people been anticipating about bull run then pretty sure we might really be able to break some previous ceilings but i do agree on some points above made by some users that we've been seeing this ETF hype wayback on previous cycle on which it did really indeed make out some significant positivity towards the market but it was forgotten when the bear market hits. Now that here we are once again then if ever these ETF would really be approved then it would really be making those common positive impression
on which it would really drive the entire community into that bullish run we might be able to experience or see but im not really that expecting much because sometimes these sentiments are really just
trying out to hype the market and making these positivity to continue for luring investors in. 

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[goaldigger]

Another day another large company showing their intent to create a Bitcoin ETF. the effect this is going to have on the Bitcoin market will in my opinion follow gold’s footsteps. Gold went up from around $275 per ounce to $1800 per ounce in the 8 years following its ETF’s launch. When you factor in BTC’s halvings and scarcity, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to make the statement that BTC will hit $800,000 in 2033.

(1800/275)*4*30,555.56=800K

(Get gold’s increase)*account for halvings*insert BTC price=BTC price 8 years after ETFs go live.

There are companies who are serious enough to make this happen, unfortunately the government are restricting them from doing this and that’s why until now, its hard to have one. If this will happen in the next five years then this could be one of the reason for that pump and many are waiting for the bullish moment again, only time can tell but if you’re bullish with Bitcoin too, better to save some now.

[STT]

Speculatively its already had an effect and scared the shorts off which in of itself is a buying effect.  A short must always end in a buy, thats the thing to remember when you hear people are short its good to remember that.  I would mostly count that immediate effect as bullish and then if the ETF is setup it will enable a wider range of involvement in the population.   Part of why they dont just allow an ETF already is apprehension on BTC regulation and all sorts of worries.
 Clearly it could be labelled an advanced ETF but to have no provision at all is not reasonable imo, every asset has risk to it especially the commodity based ETF that are already in operation have a risk.  Oil price in trade went negative for example and we use that every day, seems quite risky enough to me and its not restricted so far as I know.

[hatshepsut93]

Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

I think the pattern here is that there's a lot of interest in launching Bitcoin products when the market is bullish, and it itself contributes to the bullishness, but a bull market lasts for 1-1.5 years, so it's not a big coincidence that the launches and market crashes happen around the same time.

I seriously doubt that Bitcoin investment products shape the market, the most plausible theory explaining the bull-bear cycles is that they are caused by halvenings.

[OgNasty]

It was interesting to me the Fidelity filed their ETF and then the SEC made a statement about ETF filings being incomplete and then Fidelity immediately updated their filing to show that Coinbase would be the custodian of their Bitcoin. This shows me that the SEC is in close talks with these banks and an ETF approval is right on the horizon.

[bbc.reporter]

It was interesting to me the Fidelity filed their ETF and then the SEC made a statement about ETF filings being incomplete and then Fidelity immediately updated their filing to show that Coinbase would be the custodian of their Bitcoin. This shows me that the SEC is in close talks with these banks and an ETF approval is right on the horizon.

What was shocking for me was the market's immediate reaction to the news. The market made a big dump on everyone's faces which might imply that there were many traders who were waiting for the latest news updates on the ETF hehehe. However, this also implies that if the next news update is positive, we might witness a big pump!

[dragonvslinux]

Speculatively its already had an effect and scared the shorts off which in of itself is a buying effect.  A short must always end in a buy, thats the thing to remember when you hear people are short its good to remember that.  I would mostly count that immediate effect as bullish and then if the ETF is setup it will enable a wider range of involvement in the population.   Part of why they dont just allow an ETF already is apprehension on BTC regulation and all sorts of worries.

This was part of my point though, while price has done well over the speculation of the ETF, which was also the case when futures products were proposed and approved in the past, is this not just buying the rumour in order to sell the news if/when it actually get's launched? I do think the speculation surrounding it could increase prices further, even all the way back to $60K if approved and a date is set, which is exactly why I'd be bearish on any ETF actually getting launched if price increases dramatically leading up to it (which is what most would expect as well). Until any launch I see upside potential, including approval and when a date is set.

I still remember a lot of 2017 futures speculation that accelerated price from $5K all the way to launch at the peak of $20K, literally the absolute top. This was about 4 months of bullish price action based on knowing the launch date of December more or less meant there would only be continued bullish speculation until the launch date, which turned out to be correct.

[Who is John Galt?]

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

It is difficult to say where the price will go immediately after the approval of the ETF; expectations from the actions of the SEC may be too high. But an increase in the number of large players interested in investing in bitcoin will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin. The number of bitcoins will not rise above 21 million, and all interested major players will not have enough bitcoins in sufficient quantities for their investment appetites. If not immediately, but the price of bitcoin will certainly rise and significantly.

[goldkingcoiner]

So I thought I'd try and gauge sentiment over how another Bitcoin ETF will affect price in the immediate term if approved, as well as offer my own personal opinion.

I understand it's considered bullish for Bitcoin long-term, but in the short-term, I'm not so convinced it will be good for price. As many of you may remember, when CME/CBOE launched futures trading for Bitcoin in December 2017 this was very much at the peak of the bull-run before a -83% correction in price. Then there was the Bakkt futures launch in September 2019 prior to a further price decline of -50%+. Finally there was the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF that was (again) launched at the very peak of the bull market in November 2021 prior to a 75% price decline. Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

I realise that previous futures launches are different than the current proposed ETFs, as far as I understand, but the facts remains the same. Each time a traditional form of investment product based on Bitcoin has been launched, price has corrected significantly, between 50% and 83% basically. What's as concerning is that price is currently at a resistance level which could now become a local peak...

Ideally any new product won't be launched until price reaches $40K to $50K levels at a minimum, so that a correction doesn't threaten recent lows. But otherwise I imagine it will be the same old story of "buy the rumour sell the news", with a potential long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin but only after a short-term negative effect that becomes the catalyst for a considerable correction in price.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong if there were Bitcoin Futures/ETF launches that didn't negatively effect price in the short-term, as based on my current knowledge, this has been the only outcome so far.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I hope you are not making this into a case of correlation = causation but as history indicates, there is always a hype before or during the long-awaited event. Especially when it comes to ETFs. I cannot think of a reason why ETF launches (or similar product launches) would cause a rapid sell-off, other than to superficially push down the price.

I think, that in the long term, Bitcoin's value will go up thanks to the ETF. But in the short term, I think we will see a unjustified speculative price based on hype alone. So good news for any hodler but bad news for traders with shaky hands.

We just have to wait and see what happens. Only time will tell.

[dragonvslinux]

I hope you are not making this into a case of correlation = causation but as history indicates, there is always a hype before or during the long-awaited event. Especially when it comes to ETFs. I cannot think of a reason why ETF launches (or similar product launches) would cause a rapid sell-off, other than to superficially push down the price.

I think, that in the long term, Bitcoin's value will go up thanks to the ETF. But in the short term, I think we will see a unjustified speculative price based on hype alone. So good news for any hodler but bad news for traders with shaky hands.

We just have to wait and see what happens. Only time will tell.

Isn't this same sort of correlation = causation you are making, but with added context? As you said, in the short-term there is unjustified price speculation to the upside, which is more than enough to lead to a sell-off as we have seen with CME launch, Bakkt as well as Pro-Shares. So there is effectively a causation for this correlation which is the price speculation to put it simply, instead of being completely random.

I'm not even talking about some short-term correction either. With CME launch it was the top of the 2017 bull market, with Bakkt is was part of a 50%+ correction, and Pro-Shares was the top of the 2021 bull market. If in each of these cases there was a minor correction or otherwise price consolidation then sure, it'd be more or less irrelevant, but as stated, I'm talking about 50%+ price corrections, admittedly after 100%+ increases.

A launch of a new ETF not dumping the price would effectively be the first time in Bitcoin's history that price hasn't dumped after a major "product" launch. This is kind of my point here. Sure you can say that the three examples I've given are completely random and unrelated to considerable price declines, but it seems like a distinct pattern so far that has yet to be broken as a concept.

[dunfida]

It was interesting to me the Fidelity filed their ETF and then the SEC made a statement about ETF filings being incomplete and then Fidelity immediately updated their filing to show that Coinbase would be the custodian of their Bitcoin. This shows me that the SEC is in close talks with these banks and an ETF approval is right on the horizon.

What was shocking for me was the market's immediate reaction to the news. The market made a big dump on everyone's faces which might imply that there were many traders who were waiting for the latest news updates on the ETF hehehe. However, this also implies that if the next news update is positive, we might witness a big pump!

--

Turns out that people is already that watching about on those next news about ETF's and other correlated stuff into it on which it would really be having that kind of impression which it could neither ending up on being positive or negative basing up on such decision whether it would really be that approved or would really be rejected. We've been here before about these ETF thing but it vanish out and now we are here
once again with this kind of trend on where it is really that people or the community is really looking into because it do really make out that significant effect with these type of news or fundamentals.
Dont know if this one would really be continuing or not or would really be a long time running of waiting once again about approval or something but sure thing that if ever one for those
things would be approved or implied or whatsoever then it would really make out that significant effect on the market.

[Captain Corporate]

The problem is launching it, not really having it increase the price because that is the afterthought at this point. What people do not understand is that we are at a stage where people have to realize its not going to be that easy to launch an ETF, even the biggest companies that try it do not manage to get it done that quickly, so what happens is that we end up with a loss eventually and that's why we end up with a bad result. This means that any time any big company tries it and fails it, we end up with a drop or at least we end up with stop going up. This is why if we are going to keep failing time and time after again, why do we even attempt to do it? For the off chance that one day we may end up achieving something like this? I do not think that's a good reason to try it.

[bettercrypto]

There are only two things I see there, ETF can bring positive and negative impact to the community of the crypto industry to be honest. Because I just noticed that when the approval is close to happening, there is often a real rally in the value of Bitcoin.

And when the result is no longer good in the end, there is also a sudden rally in lowering its price in the market. they say the scenario is now, but let's see.

[adaseb]

Blackrock refiled it’s application already. So they are obviously very keen on getting it approved and launched. Some hedge fund stated earlier that there is a good chance it’s approved.

Will it promote a rally? Sure but what I worry is what happens after the etf goes live. Like the prior etf launches Bitcoin basically quickly reversed and went into a horrible bear market.

Maybe this time will be different, who knows.

[goldkingcoiner]

I hope you are not making this into a case of correlation = causation but as history indicates, there is always a hype before or during the long-awaited event. Especially when it comes to ETFs. I cannot think of a reason why ETF launches (or similar product launches) would cause a rapid sell-off, other than to superficially push down the price.

I think, that in the long term, Bitcoin's value will go up thanks to the ETF. But in the short term, I think we will see a unjustified speculative price based on hype alone. So good news for any hodler but bad news for traders with shaky hands.

We just have to wait and see what happens. Only time will tell.

Isn't this same sort of correlation = causation you are making, but with added context? As you said, in the short-term there is unjustified price speculation to the upside, which is more than enough to lead to a sell-off as we have seen with CME launch, Bakkt as well as Pro-Shares. So there is effectively a causation for this correlation which is the price speculation to put it simply, instead of being completely random.

What I meant is that although there are signs pointing to an incoming ETF hype having a similar effect on the price of BTC as it did in the past, we cannot make predictions on the price action just yet, because there is not enough historical data to make a statistical prediction on this specific event. We have had only a precious few BTC ETF filings in the past so any perceived correlations may turn out to be nothing but coincidence.

But what we know to be true and tested many times is the fact that whenever there is a positive hype, there is overblown speculative price growth.

I'm not even talking about some short-term correction either. With CME launch it was the top of the 2017 bull market, with Bakkt is was part of a 50%+ correction, and Pro-Shares was the top of the 2021 bull market. If in each of these cases there was a minor correction or otherwise price consolidation then sure, it'd be more or less irrelevant, but as stated, I'm talking about 50%+ price corrections, admittedly after 100%+ increases.

A launch of a new ETF not dumping the price would effectively be the first time in Bitcoin's history that price hasn't dumped after a major "product" launch. This is kind of my point here. Sure you can say that the three examples I've given are completely random and unrelated to considerable price declines, but it seems like a distinct pattern so far that has yet to be broken as a concept.

As I said, unless a patterns keeps repeating a certain amount of times, at minimum, it should not be considered a correlative pattern just yet. In fact, this last ETF filing is very different (or so they say) to the past BTC ETF filings. That alone might give one the impression that the BTC price action will be unpredictable.

When in doubt, Hodl.

[jaberwock]

Maybe this will be the last opportunity before the Halving is reached, so there is still a chance to get Bitcoin at a cheap price.
The current price is still stable above $30k and if the price corrects then the opportunity to buy again.

There is a possibility that the same pattern will repeat itself, but of course, there are changes in each pattern following the development of current prices and market conditions. Hoping that the new ATH will be reached in Halving 2024 and that is everyone's hope of course.

If the bad effects occur yes but what if it's the positive one? I think it's better to buy right now because this price might still be cheaper compared to what we will have later on. It seems there are no more corrections in $30k because we are getting stable for some time. It probably moved in the higher levels. Everyone is positive in the upcoming halving that it can have a positive effect in Bitcoins value.

It might be true but there are no guarantees that we will make a new ATH. It is still possible to sell for profit as long as you bought lower before the event. People should realize that 2024 is not the final year. There are still more to come with Bitcoin.

[adaseb]

The black rock ceo was on the news today talking about Bitcoin. Seems he really wants that etf to get approved and launched and he is fairly sure it will get approved.

You would think Bitcoin would rally on this news however it basically traded sideways and went down. Basically proof that these etf news releases won’t make any concrete difference until it’s actually approved or rejected.

Now it’s more about the fed and if they will hike or not.

[sana54210]

The black rock ceo was on the news today talking about Bitcoin. Seems he really wants that etf to get approved and launched and he is fairly sure it will get approved.

You would think Bitcoin would rally on this news however it basically traded sideways and went down. Basically proof that these etf news releases won’t make any concrete difference until it’s actually approved or rejected.

Now it’s more about the fed and if they will hike or not.

What did you expected him to say? We are not going to get our ETF approved? Of course he would look like he is super excited about it and believe that it is going to be approved, I am not saying he is lying, all I am saying is that he could be biased towards his own ETF getting approved even if it is not going to get approved, I am not even saying it is not going to get approved, maybe it will be, but we can't really understand that from what he is saying because he is lop sided on that idea.

So, all we have to do is wait for it to do well, and I would be glad to see that change sometime soon. If it gets approved that would of course be a good thing for the crypto world, we would love to see that happening and should be happy that it did.

[spectre71]

I think the way bitcoin has been maturing is good. Blackrock can add more of that, it really is going to depend how much contribution to the are going buy in with is important. BR has trillions it may be an issues for them simply buy enough bitcoin and not bake the market. They swing a big D*** and could easily generate a problem likke  with Ginsler, suppress the price and buy in then "fix" the problem

ETF's let people include them in retirement accounts (401K) and such is kinda cool.

[dansus021]

It would be brought to bullish in my opinion since etf would be buy bitcoin right? and if more institutions came up bitcoin would drive up, but bitcoin price would be highly correlated with other asset like stock and economic news.

Tho Sec seems not to approve yet any Bitcoin ETF out there

Update :  

Mr gary seems dont like the bitcoin etf