⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024

[Betwrong]

So, Bard AI has helped me to earn 3 points in the latest Matchday:



It's not like Bard predicted the correct score. Bard predicted a 3-1 win for Bayern Munich in the FC Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg, but since it said: "but it could be a close match", I predicted 4-1 and was right about the Goal Difference and therefore earned 3 points. I'm happy with the result, to be honest. Probably will be using Bard more for my future predictions. (I hope it's not against the rules).

I am totally sure that Bard won't give you an edge. It is as much rolling the dice as everyone else is who has a good grasp of the teams and the league. At best, I would say. I think knowing a league and knowing some of the minor details of every team already gives you an edge over the AI. This might change in the future, but not for now.

Next season we could add some accounts and operate them with AI and see what the results are at the end of the season. Could be worth a little experiment although I am quite sure what the outcome will be.

You are correct, it's this point Brad is pretty much useless for predicting the outcomes of the games. Bard is almost always predicts  2-1 in favour of the strongest team. It predicted 3-1 win for Bayern Munich in the FC Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg, but it only happened once, and Bard wasn't correct in that case anyway. Maybe it's my prompt, but something makes it impossible to use Bard for making correct predictions. I will try with some other promts, though, but my hopes are not high.

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[mv1986]

So, Bard AI has helped me to earn 3 points in the latest Matchday:



It's not like Bard predicted the correct score. Bard predicted a 3-1 win for Bayern Munich in the FC Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg, but since it said: "but it could be a close match", I predicted 4-1 and was right about the Goal Difference and therefore earned 3 points. I'm happy with the result, to be honest. Probably will be using Bard more for my future predictions. (I hope it's not against the rules).

I am totally sure that Bard won't give you an edge. It is as much rolling the dice as everyone else is who has a good grasp of the teams and the league. At best, I would say. I think knowing a league and knowing some of the minor details of every team already gives you an edge over the AI. This might change in the future, but not for now.

Next season we could add some accounts and operate them with AI and see what the results are at the end of the season. Could be worth a little experiment although I am quite sure what the outcome will be.

You are correct, it's this point Brad is pretty much useless for predicting the outcomes of the games. Bard is almost always predicts  2-1 in favour of the strongest team. It predicted 3-1 win for Bayern Munich in the FC Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg, but it only happened once, and Bard wasn't correct in that case anyway. Maybe it's my prompt, but something makes it impossible to use Bard for making correct predictions. I will try with some other promts, though, but my hopes are not high.

I think it is because AI-systems don't have an information advantage and they probably also have issues with sources spreading false information. These AI-systems are also probabilistic, which means that any smallest deviation from the seemingly most likely outcome would make them be a bad system.

This table is outdated, but I still think it provides a decent overview of the total score distribution across several leagues. Interestingly though, the most common result is a 1-1 draw. But if AI then gathers some data and understands that there is a favorite and an underdog, it will just go with the 2-1 most of the time because it is the second most likely result for the years presented in that table.

I think it is still very far from gathering real-time data and then include it in the outputs. For example, what would a trained AS-system do if it learns that Kane and Sané will miss a game on short notice? It would be interesting if it corrects the total score one goal down or something like that. But all these are averages and really, I don't see the day coming when AI gets a 5-0 Stuttgart vs. Freiburg prediction right

[cygan]

after the international break the time has come and with the game dortmund vs. bremen tomorrow the 8th matchday in the bundesliga will start. in order to keep our pool a fair competition, here comes the weekly reminder to the participants who have not yet submitted their picks

Code: morvillz7z Trofo KTChampions CLS63 Omikifuse mitchr4 buwaytress casperBGD LTU_btc mv1986 vd309 seek3r darxiaomi Spack17 jayce

[buwaytress]

BVB need a win desperately in UCL so I wonder if they could slip up at home this weekend? Still went for a comfortable home win there, though, and Reus seems to be quietly picking up form...

it's official and fc augsburg is the first club to sack its coach this season.
the club parted ways with Enrico Maaßen last night. augsburg is in 15th place in the table after 7 games with 5 points (1 win, 2 draws, 4 defeats).

Wow, that's really early, especially for Augsburg, where 5 earned points so far are not that bad. Maybe the loss at home against Darmstadt, a direct competitor for relegation, must have been very devastating for Augsburg internally. 2 weeks ago, Augsburg even won against Mainz, also a direct competitor, who decided to stick to Bo Svensson but is only at 2 points currently.
And here we are, first coach got sacked and it's not Mainz or Bremen. Köln's coach might also get sacked soon. 

Sad for me, Mainz was my pick and they were trying really hard to go rock bottom, even their player got cheeky a few days ago with a political post he later had to retract. Augsburg aren't great but I'm really not sure firing their manager changes much. Oh well. Did anyone actually get this pick right?

[casperBGD]

~snip
Sad for me, Mainz was my pick and they were trying really hard to go rock bottom, even their player got cheeky a few days ago with a political post he later had to retract. Augsburg aren't great but I'm really not sure firing their manager changes much. Oh well. Did anyone actually get this pick right?

didn't check the whole table, but three correct picks above me in standings, so many pointed in Augsburg direction
still, I would not call a bad start for them overall, maybe something else influenced change
nevertheless, it is all over, and we should concentrate on new round

Bayern playing with Mainz, so Mainz will probably stay where they are, rock bottom
Koeln home against M'Gladbach, chance for a first win? or they are cursed this season

[buwaytress]

didn't check the whole table, but three correct picks above me in standings, so many pointed in Augsburg direction
still, I would not call a bad start for them overall, maybe something else influenced change
nevertheless, it is all over, and we should concentrate on new round

Bayern playing with Mainz, so Mainz will probably stay where they are, rock bottom
Koeln home against M'Gladbach, chance for a first win? or they are cursed this season

Yup, all over. I'm (trying to) get over it. Really thought that would be my edge. I'm now of course looking to catch Mainz odds if they reach a more suitable level. Bo's already piping to the media that he knows the secrets to beating Bayern, haha.

There will be one upset this weekend, just hoping it doesn't happen too early with BVB -- whom I'm really counting on to make a splash next week in UCL.

[mv1986]

I have just checked out the line-up for Dortmund against Bremen because I considered changing my prediction for the game, but now I am hesitating because I saw this:



I don't really care too much, but I think this formation is unworthy of Dortmund in a home game at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund has been known to play intense attacking football and now I am not even sure if I missed that they have been playing this more often recently. But I looked at the last few games and the very least they did was a 4-2-3-1. Usually they get these formations right and surely I know that Brandt and Malen are supposed to play a rather offensive role here. But still I remember the times when Dortmund's offense looked really dangerous. This doesn't really look dangerous. I will still give them the benefit of the doubt and do what the bookies suggest and hope I'll get my prediction a bit different from most of you guys

[casperBGD]

~snip
I will still give them the benefit of the doubt and do what the bookies suggest and hope I'll get my prediction a bit different from most of you guys

agree with a doubt stand, but Dortmund will probably have a hard fought win
didn't watch it, but statistic said 22 shots, 5 on target, and one goal by Brandt, enough for a minimal win

agree, they don't look very good at the moment, but winning when you are not in best shape is what brings good placements and titles

while I was typing, it ended, 1:0 for Dortmund

[KTChampions]

agree with a doubt stand, but Dortmund will probably have a hard fought win
didn't watch it, but statistic said 22 shots, 5 on target, and one goal by Brandt, enough for a minimal win

agree, they don't look very good at the moment, but winning when you are not in best shape is what brings good placements and titles

while I was typing, it ended, 1:0 for Dortmund

An unexpected result for me, I predicted 3-1 in favor of Dortmund, but only a minimal victory as a result. Despite the fact that Dortmund scores on average more than 2 goals per game, and Werder concedes more than 2. Well. For at least a day, Dortmund is in first place and I will hope that the Bundesliga in the remaining games will continue to show greater results as in previous rounds.

[mv1986]

~
but winning when you are not in best shape is what brings good placements and titles

This can't be denied, but it comes with the risk that one day the result-oriented style will more often end in a draw or in a worst case also in losses. But I don't want to be too negative because despite their lack of offensive power, defensively they are doing ok. It has been worse than that but at least they do win a game with just one goal. It is their third 1-0 win this season and Dortmund is well known for losing games late in the second half when they failed to extend their lead and concede a goal close to the end of the game. This seems to be working out for them, but I still miss the goal fest style they often played in the past.

But to come back to the quote from above, goal fest style doesn't win any titles when there are still too many lost points. It is more likely that they have a chance this year when they can more often get the 1-0 lead over the finish line.

[Harkorede]

~
but winning when you are not in best shape is what brings good placements and titles

This can't be denied, but it comes with the risk that one day the result-oriented style will more often end in a draw or in a worst case also in losses. But I don't want to be too negative because despite their lack of offensive power, defensively they are doing ok. It has been worse than that but at least they do win a game with just one goal. It is their third 1-0 win this season and Dortmund is well known for losing games late in the second half when they failed to extend their lead and concede a goal close to the end of the game. This seems to be working out for them, but I still miss the goal fest style they often played in the past.

But to come back to the quote from above, goal fest style doesn't win any titles when there are still too many lost points. It is more likely that they have a chance this year when they can more often get the 1-0 lead over the finish line.

It's easier to understand everyone's expectation of this match looking at the scores prediction, the largest percentage of the pool went for a 2-goals difference win for Dortmund and so did I as well.

I went with Dortmund for a 2-0 win and my reason doesn't go beyond the fact that it's the first game after an international break and the smaller teams are often at better advantage by having not so many players from their squad being called or participating for the internationals fixtures while you have players having less than 24 hours for games and after several hours of flight from different continents.

[cygan]

the 8th matchday is over now with a spectacular 5-2 away win of augbsurg in heidenheim and with 19 points each we have two matchday winners with KTChampions (who is also the new table leader) and efialtis (aka BTCGOSU), who can now look forward to a free bet on sportsbet.io
congratulations from me - i have forwarded your nicknames immediately
general overwiev will follow...

[Harkorede]

the 8th matchday is over now with a spectacular 5-2 away win of augbsurg in heidenheim and with 19 points each we have two matchday winners with KTChampions (who is also the new table leader) and efialtis (aka BTCGOSU), who can now look forward to a free bet on sportsbet.io
congratulations from me - i have forwarded your nicknames immediately
general overwiev will follow...

This has got to be one of the closest round, If not the closest round so far in this competition, lowest point being 11 and highest is 19 points with vast majority of the others lying between 13-18 points, I think this is even the closest round ever, and it's not even up for discussion.

I was a victim of marginal goal differences and that ended up hurting my chances of closing in on pack leaders, being able to maintain my spot, while not losing significant point difference from the leader is something I can live with for this week.

[mv1986]

I think Heidenheim and Darmstadt are the two teams with the wildest turns during their games after taking the lead.

The game Darmstadt - Gladbach ended 3-3 after Darmstadt had a 3-0 lead against them. That was crazy and hurtful for them, but thy kept fighting and were able to win 2 out of their next 3 games.

Heidenheim - Dortmund was insane because it was the other way around when Dortmund had a 2-0 lead in the Signal Iduna Park and Heidenheim was able to equalize the game... But today I was so confident after they had the 2-0 lead against Augsburg that I didn't consider for a second that Augsburg could still win this game. Well, with a staggering 5-2 for Augsburg I think I have been wrong here.

[KTChampions]

the 8th matchday is over now with a spectacular 5-2 away win of augbsurg in heidenheim and with 19 points each we have two matchday winners with KTChampions (who is also the new table leader) and efialtis (aka BTCGOSU), who can now look forward to a free bet on sportsbet.io
congratulations from me - i have forwarded your nicknames immediately
general overwiev will follow...

Thank you! I have already received a free bet and I hope to implement it in the Champions League games (although I have not yet seen whether there will be convenient games there).
I'm very glad that I finally got the yellow cap - in the previous round I didn't get it because of just one point, but this time luck was on my side. I also congratulate BTCGOSU.

[mv1986]

the 8th matchday is over now with a spectacular 5-2 away win of augbsurg in heidenheim and with 19 points each we have two matchday winners with KTChampions (who is also the new table leader) and efialtis (aka BTCGOSU), who can now look forward to a free bet on sportsbet.io
congratulations from me - i have forwarded your nicknames immediately
general overwiev will follow...

Thank you! I have already received a free bet and I hope to implement it in the Champions League games (although I have not yet seen whether there will be convenient games there).
I'm very glad that I finally got the yellow cap - in the previous round I didn't get it because of just one point, but this time luck was on my side. I also congratulate BTCGOSU.

BTCGOSU would be second if he had not missed the first two arounds and would have averaged the same scored he had in the last six rounds. That's probably a but frustrating, but maybe it is also a nice motivation to fight his way back to the top and wouldn't it be a historic moment if he won the pool in the end?

For the record: season 2022/23   bullrun2020bro (419 points)

KTChampions is averaging just under 15 points per round and that would by far destroy bullrun2020bro's 419 points.

Edit: these are the results from the German pool:

saison 2019/20   cygan (386 punkte - besonderheit: tippspiel hat ab dem 4. spieltag begonnen)
saison 2020/21   Lemming (403 punkte)
saison 2021/22   cygan (459 punkte)
saison 2022/23   bullrun2020bro (419 punkte)

@KTChampions, lucky streak or pure skill? ;P

[CLS63]

the 8th matchday is over now with a spectacular 5-2 away win of augbsurg in heidenheim and with 19 points each we have two matchday winners with KTChampions (who is also the new table leader) and efialtis (aka BTCGOSU), who can now look forward to a free bet on sportsbet.io
congratulations from me - i have forwarded your nicknames immediately
general overwiev will follow...

Thank you! I have already received a free bet and I hope to implement it in the Champions League games (although I have not yet seen whether there will be convenient games there).
I'm very glad that I finally got the yellow cap - in the previous round I didn't get it because of just one point, but this time luck was on my side. I also congratulate BTCGOSU.

BTCGOSU would be second if he had not missed the first two arounds and would have averaged the same scored he had in the last six rounds. That's probably a but frustrating, but maybe it is also a nice motivation to fight his way back to the top and wouldn't it be a historic moment if he won the pool in the end?

I still can't forget about my not being able to finish the league in 5th place last season because of not being able to make predictions for only 1 week. Therefore I think that BTCGOSU is disappointed now. However as we are still like at the first times of the season he still has a potential to win a prize in the league if he maintains this performance.

If I'm to look from my point of view I'm showing a quite good performance this season. I hope that I can manage to win one of the big prizes.

[Betwrong]

So, Bard AI has helped me to earn 3 points in the latest Matchday:



It's not like Bard predicted the correct score. Bard predicted a 3-1 win for Bayern Munich in the FC Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg, but since it said: "but it could be a close match", I predicted 4-1 and was right about the Goal Difference and therefore earned 3 points. I'm happy with the result, to be honest. Probably will be using Bard more for my future predictions. (I hope it's not against the rules).

I am totally sure that Bard won't give you an edge. It is as much rolling the dice as everyone else is who has a good grasp of the teams and the league. At best, I would say. I think knowing a league and knowing some of the minor details of every team already gives you an edge over the AI. This might change in the future, but not for now.

Next season we could add some accounts and operate them with AI and see what the results are at the end of the season. Could be worth a little experiment although I am quite sure what the outcome will be.

You are correct, it's this point Brad is pretty much useless for predicting the outcomes of the games. Bard is almost always predicts  2-1 in favour of the strongest team. It predicted 3-1 win for Bayern Munich in the FC Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg, but it only happened once, and Bard wasn't correct in that case anyway. Maybe it's my prompt, but something makes it impossible to use Bard for making correct predictions. I will try with some other promts, though, but my hopes are not high.

I think it is because AI-systems don't have an information advantage and they probably also have issues with sources spreading false information. These AI-systems are also probabilistic, which means that any smallest deviation from the seemingly most likely outcome would make them be a bad system.

Probably this is the case. What I found strange was that even if I was telling Bard "This player isn't playing in that match. Please take that into account and now tell me what are the most probable All-time Goalscorers", Bard was, nevertheless, listing that player among them again? I see it as some kind of a temporary glitch. But at this point, Bard is impossible to use and ChatGPT doesn't know anything about present or future.

This table is outdated, but I still think it provides a decent overview of the total score distribution across several leagues. Interestingly though, the most common result is a 1-1 draw. But if AI then gathers some data and understands that there is a favorite and an underdog, it will just go with the 2-1 most of the time because it is the second most likely result for the years presented in that table.

I think it is still very far from gathering real-time data and then include it in the outputs. For example, what would a trained AS-system do if it learns that Kane and Sané will miss a game on short notice? It would be interesting if it corrects the total score one goal down or something like that. But all these are averages and really, I don't see the day coming when AI gets a 5-0 Stuttgart vs. Freiburg prediction right

Thank you for the link! I find that info very helpful.

I think you are right. AI will never predict something like 5-0.

[KTChampions]

~
For the record: season 2022/23   bullrun2020bro (419 points)

KTChampions is averaging just under 15 points per round and that would by far destroy bullrun2020bro's 419 points.

Edit: these are the results from the German pool:

saison 2019/20   cygan (386 punkte - besonderheit: tippspiel hat ab dem 4. spieltag begonnen)
saison 2020/21   Lemming (403 punkte)
saison 2021/22   cygan (459 punkte)
saison 2022/23   bullrun2020bro (419 punkte)

@KTChampions, lucky streak or pure skill? ;P

I think it’s too early to say what will happen at the end, I’m sure that we will see a kaledoscope both in the top and in other parts of the table.
As for me, I'm sure it's luck. Firstly, my results in other polls are bad (I even avoid looking at the statistics so as not to lose my good mood), and secondly, the Bundesliga looks random to me, maybe I understand a few teams from here, but overall I can’t say that I understand this league.

[mv1986]

~

@KTChampions, lucky streak or pure skill? ;P

I think it’s too early to say what will happen at the end, I’m sure that we will see a kaledoscope both in the top and in other parts of the table.
As for me, I'm sure it's luck. Firstly, my results in other polls are bad (I even avoid looking at the statistics so as not to lose my good mood), and secondly, the Bundesliga looks random to me, maybe I understand a few teams from here, but overall I can’t say that I understand this league.

I am also in the German pool for the 1. Bundesliga and the choices between the native German/Austria/Switzerland people and the English 1. Bundesliga pool with a more international field of participants differ quite a bit. But I think it is more indicative of the fact that there is lots of luck involved. One would assume that we should the league better than someone who isn't reading the daily news about it, but sometimes the results are so random that those who pick more random get away with better results. But since you had this average, I assumed you would at least be reasonably aware of what's going on in the league since you are constantly having good results!