⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024

[Trofo]

Thanks for the ping cygan, pretty icy and cold where I am too, emergency rooms filling up with people slipping on ice which is slightly unusual for this time Jan!

Freiburg, still no Doan, but I'm taking them again for the win, despite bleeding me out every match heh. Leipzig is interestingly the slight favourite but I have faith in Alonso to do something special. Bayern are a tasty 20/1 prize to bet against, so I'll make sure to have a few satoshi on that

Interesting that Leipzig is the slight favorite here as their current form isn't suggesting that they should be in this match. But I think this goes back to the fact that Leverkusen is missing several important players for this clash with Leipzig. But still they could not beat Bremen and they lost the game at home against Frankfurt.

Whereas Leverkusen's performance against Augsburg was stunning except for the fact that it took them so long to score the decisive goal. But 76% ball possession and 24 shots is quite a good indicator that Leverkusen is ready to go for the game against Leipzig.

Leverkusen with a win in stoppage time. Did not watch the game but seems it has been an entertaining one with 5 goals and lot of good football. According to the stats also more than deserved win.

Just looking at the table and I see Leverkusen 7 points clear on top but Bayern with 2 games in hand. They will play one tomorrow but when did they postopne the other one? Don't remember any postponments this season before yesterday's match.

[1714631961]

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[1714631961]

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[1714631961]

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[cygan]

✂️
They will play one tomorrow but when did they postopne the other one? Don't remember any postponments this season before yesterday's match.

on matchday 13, the match between bayern and union berlin was canceled due to heavy snowfall and will now be rescheduled for this wednesday (january 24).
therefore we do not yet have a matchday winner in our pool for this matchday and have to wait for this game

[Betwrong]

~

I came here to say that finally, after so many months of trying, I'm in the top 10!



It's a big deal for me because you guys are so well in predicting and it's extremely hard to beat you. I mean, a lot of good luck is needed for that. I can only hope that Luck will not let me down in the future too.

[Harkorede]

Leverkusen with a win in stoppage time. Did not watch the game but seems it has been an entertaining one with 5 goals and lot of good football. According to the stats also more than deserved win.

The stoppage time goal cost me 3 points and a chance to move up to the 10th position, I knew Leipzig wasn't going to win the game but Leverkusen without Boniface made me went for a draw instead.

~

I came here to say that finally, after so many months of trying, I'm in the top 10!



It's a big deal for me because you guys are so well in predicting and it's extremely hard to beat you. I mean, a lot of good luck is needed for that. I can only hope that Luck will not let me down in the future too.

Good stuff mate! It's quite easier to climb up the ladder on Kicktipp (Just one good game week and you're in sight) and it is also twice as easier to fall off too.

[casperBGD]

~snip
Leverkusen with a win in stoppage time. Did not watch the game but seems it has been an entertaining one with 5 goals and lot of good football. According to the stats also more than deserved win.

Leverkusen statistics with Alonso onboard is impressive, but this season is particularly good, 27 matches in all competitions, no lose, 24 wins
and Europe is included, whereas they were only team to win-it-all in Europa league group stage

will be interesting will they remain trophy-less as usual, or this is really a breakthrough for Leverkusen (as a fan, hope this time is different)

two more matches today, home teams as heavy favorites to get points, M'Gladbach and Bavarians, of course

[cygan]

due to the match being postponed (mainz vs. union) and the current points score in our pool, the winner of the matchday will only be determined after the match has been played
a total of 4 users (-Lemming-, LTU_btc, Spray. & darxiaomi) are currently leading the matchday with 12 points each and are therefore among the potential matchday winners, as are the other participants with 8 or more points
unfortunately, it is not yet clear when the match will be replayed

[KTChampions]

due to the match being postponed (mainz vs. union) and the current points score in our pool, the winner of the matchday will only be determined after the match has been played
a total of 4 users (-Lemming-, LTU_btc, Spray. & darxiaomi) are currently leading the matchday with 12 points each and are therefore among the potential matchday winners, as are the other participants with 8 or more points
unfortunately, it is not yet clear when the match will be replayed

I think they should agree among themselves and make the same forecast so as not to push their luck, but to be guaranteed to get a yellow cap and a free bet  It seems to me that this is an ideal plan, especially considering that forum connections allow you to trust each other.

Has Bavaria finally been dethroned? Moreover, Bayern is very good this season (compared to the previous one), but so far Bayer is even better.

[casperBGD]

~snip

Has Bavaria finally been dethroned? Moreover, Bayern is very good this season (compared to the previous one), but so far Bayer is even better.

it is actually only four points (7 with a game in hand), but Bayer looks really stunning so far
nevertheless, both teams have histories in situations like these, Bayern to catch-up whatever is needed, and Bayer to blow the lead, no matter how big it is , so it is far from over

but Augsburg to overturn a match in M'Gladbach is also big surprise, they were known as home team till this season, but so far winning away matches this season works for them

[KTChampions]

~snip

Has Bavaria finally been dethroned? Moreover, Bayern is very good this season (compared to the previous one), but so far Bayer is even better.

it is actually only four points (7 with a game in hand), but Bayer looks really stunning so far
nevertheless, both teams have histories in situations like these, Bayern to catch-up whatever is needed, and Bayer to blow the lead, no matter how big it is , so it is far from over

but Augsburg to overturn a match in M'Gladbach is also big surprise, they were known as home team till this season, but so far winning away matches this season works for them

Yes, with different numbers of games it is customary to count lost points and not gained, but as we see, these “potential” points still need to be scored, right?
If we apply bookmaker logic, then Bayern is behind not by 7 or 4 points, but by 7 points minus the mathematical expectation from the postponed game, it will be approximately 80% * 3 = 2.4. It turns out that Bayern is 4.6 points behind Bayer.
Is it a lot or a little? Bayer currently scores 88% of points on average, but let’s say their average season efficiency is 80% (this is still a lot), it turns out that in a single game the team gains 2.4 points and loses 0.6. Therefore, the maximum number of points that Bayern will win back on average is 0.6 -> Bayern will need 4.6/0.6 = 7.66 perfect games to catch up with Bayer.
That was a bit of bookmaker logic 
I can also calculate the percentage of points that Bayern should score in the remaining games if Bayer maintains its effectiveness (or decreases), but I already want to sleep.

[buwaytress]

Always appreciate the way KTChampions tries to apply bookmaker logic, I personally think it's more market dictated (how much money's riding on either side) than we think. And money's always going to be on Bayern globally, so I doubt odds balance out any time this season -- Alonso is flying, I hope he enjoys this as much as possible. It would be weird for Kane to break every record before him and still miss out on the very reason he made his move!

[casperBGD]

~snip
It would be weird for Kane to break every record before him and still miss out on the very reason he made his move!

at least for him, Spurs are no longer at EPL top, or that would be hilarious to see them winning title, and Kane settling for no.2 in Bundesliga

agree about market dictating odds on Bayern and Bayer to win the title, mathematically speaking, Bayer should always have better odds than current point situation on the table, due to bettors have more trust in Bayern to play-it till the end
but it doesn't happen every time, Ajax is prime example last season, all thought that they will line-up some wins and reach title, but they didn't
could happen to Bayern as well, hopefully will happen

[1miau]

I've organized a Bundesliga giveaway in my local board, if you are interested to participate: [unterstützt von BC.Game] Gewinnspiel: Bundesliga-Tabellenspitze + Bitcoin-Preis

0,5 mBTC can be won and there'll be a sponsorship on top (around 3 mBTC, will be announced).

Rules:

We are looking for the points difference between the two clubs Bayer Leverkusen and FC Bayern Munich (Bundesliga table) on 04.02.2024, 4:59:59 PM forum time. In the event of a tie, the difference in points in the number of bets will be decided by the Bitcoin price in USD, Coinbase, also measured at this point in time.


additional rules:

• Each eligible participant can nominate one prediction for this competition. Predictions of the points difference that have already been picked can be entered more than once.
• Entries with predictions are not allowed to be not be edited. All legitimate picks I'm including in my list will be considered final!
• Only accounts created before 04.12.2023 can participate in this competition.
• Bitcoin price prediction is in USD.
• Only one account per person is allowed to participate. No multiple accounts, please be honest. If someone violates my rule and I find out, you will not receive any valuable BTC, even if your pick is guessed correctly, you'll receive negative trust on all accounts.
• The requirement of a received amount of merit, which is usually required, will be replaced this time by the fact that each participant must list 1 own, active Bitcoin address to which you have access in your pick submission. This requirement is applied to enable fairer participation conditions for lower ranked members, as it is sometimes very difficult for new members to receive Merit. We will see how well this rule improvement works or whether it slides into abuse.
• In order to limit cheating, at least one Bitcoin transaction must have been carried out on your Bitcoin addresses mentioned in your pick submission since 01.01.2023 (transaction received or sent).
• In addition, only accounts with at least 40 activities are allowed to participate in this competition.
• The winner will be whoever will be closest to the points difference between FC Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga) on 04.02.2024, 4:59:59 Forum time. In case of a draw of several participants, the winner will be decided by Bitcoin price.
• Payment will be made after the competition to the address you used when you placed your pick.
• Subsequent editing of the addresses any time will result in the loss of the claim to the prize, which will then be awarded to the next legitimate participant.
• Participation period is until 24.01.2024 at 5.59.59 PM forum time.
• It's mandatory for a valid participation to copy + submit the following form:

Code:

Bitcointalk-Nutzername: 

Meine aktive Bitcoin-Adresse: 

Tipp Punkteabstand zwischen Bayer Leverkusen und FC Bayern München am 04.02.2024, 4:59:59 PM Forumszeit: 
Tipp Bitcoin-Preis am 04.02.2024, 4:59:59 PM Forumszeit: 

Everyone who's eligible to participate is invited to join. 

Maybe FC Bayern will surprise us again by losing unexpectedly.

[cygan]

the game bayern vs. union will probably not be played until next year in january/february.
this means the following points for our pool:

Code:

CLS63, Harkorede and Ulven each 13 points
buwaytress, 1r0n1c, Spray., bullrun2024bro, darxiaomi and Hhampuz each 11 points
LTU_btc 10 points

that these participants can still be considered as potential matchday winners for gw13
✂

a little reminder to the users listed above, but also to everyone else...
tomorrow the catch-up match bayern munich vs. union berlin takes place and after the recent home defeat against werder bremen (0-1) , you all still have the chance to change your picks (if you want)
will there be another surprise or will the frustrated bayern control the club from berlin-köpenick for the entire match and win outright?

btw the game mainz vs. union which was canceled last friday will be played on february 7th

[buwaytress]

That's quite a bit of work for you to keep track of cygan, your efforts very well appreciated (god knows I'd forget something like that).

I think their last loss was an outlier, a blip if you want. They're extra incentivised to catch up now so need to win that game in hand. I think they'll also have an eye on goal difference and it may very well come down to that, so I'm counting on a bounce back in the extreme direction vs Union.

[KTChampions]

Always appreciate the way KTChampions tries to apply bookmaker logic, I personally think it's more market dictated (how much money's riding on either side) than we think. And money's always going to be on Bayern globally, so I doubt odds balance out any time this season -- Alonso is flying, I hope he enjoys this as much as possible. It would be weird for Kane to break every record before him and still miss out on the very reason he made his move!

Yes, cash flow is the second (I think second most important and not the first) factor that bookmakers take into account. They cannot ignore it because even if they predict better than the players and will always end up in the black, a large imbalance in cash flow will lead to volatility in income, but bookmakers want to be in the black at every point in time. But still, the first factor is their probabilistic models - if they deviate greatly from them and rely heavily on the opinion of the crowd, then cunning people like you will make easy money from bookmakers 

[cygan]

after yesterday's 1-0 win of bayern munich against union berlin the 13th matchday is now completed and we have a total of 3 participants who can look forward to a free bet on sportsbet.io
with 15 points each CLS63, Harkorede and Ulven won the matchday - congratulations
the free bets will be credited to you on monday

[mv1986]

Always appreciate the way KTChampions tries to apply bookmaker logic, I personally think it's more market dictated (how much money's riding on either side) than we think. And money's always going to be on Bayern globally, so I doubt odds balance out any time this season -- Alonso is flying, I hope he enjoys this as much as possible. It would be weird for Kane to break every record before him and still miss out on the very reason he made his move!

Yes, cash flow is the second (I think second most important and not the first) factor that bookmakers take into account. They cannot ignore it because even if they predict better than the players and will always end up in the black, a large imbalance in cash flow will lead to volatility in income, but bookmakers want to be in the black at every point in time. But still, the first factor is their probabilistic models - if they deviate greatly from them and rely heavily on the opinion of the crowd, then cunning people like you will make easy money from bookmakers 

I think the cash flow on both sides is the major driver and the bookmakers have their thresholds, probably algorithmically included. It's not about disregarding the balance in strength between both teams, but if they get into a liquidity danger zone, the bookmakers are going to make sure that they balance it out. They are kind of hedging their own risks without ever losing out. This does at least count for the huge bookmakers that have no incentive to bet against any of the markets because they make their money on the spread they are offering. The large bookmakers can balance out imbalances in the bets placed in many ways. If the market isn't as liquid as forecasted, they can just include limits for any bet that is to be placed on a certain event.

[cygan]

here is my weekly reminder to all participants who have not yet submitted their picks:

Code: morvillz7z casperBGD Little Mouse Trofo Omikifuse CLS63 Ulven Spack17 shogun47 jayce seek3r efialtis

you all have ~7 hours left to make your predictions at least for today's game frankfurt vs. mainz

[casperBGD]

here is my weekly reminder to all participants who have not yet submitted their picks:
~snip

thanks for a reminder, almost forgot about it
it is difficult to manage kicktipp as separate app to Superbru, but holding for now

interesting round, Augsburg is always a tough neighbor for Bayern, and bearing in mind that Bavarians aren't doing great job lately, this one could bring a surprise, although it is probably better to try to catch that on odds, betting, than in kicktipp
Stuttgart will face Leipzig in another interesting duel

[Betwrong]

~

I came here to say that finally, after so many months of trying, I'm in the top 10!



It's a big deal for me because you guys are so well in predicting and it's extremely hard to beat you. I mean, a lot of good luck is needed for that. I can only hope that Luck will not let me down in the future too.

Good stuff mate! It's quite easier to climb up the ladder on Kicktipp (Just one good game week and you're in sight) and it is also twice as easier to fall off too.

Right, right, and that's what I'm afraid of at the moment. I don't want to tumble down from the heights I've climbed through such hard efforts. What I want is climbing further up, and, I can't believe it myself, but I did manage to make that one step up recently



I know that only extreme luck will save me from falling down from there, you guys are so great with your predictions.